Planning For Population Education-1 1

Assignment No. 1

Planning For Population Education-I

6573
ANEELA MAQBOOL

Registration No.21PVI00847

M. ABDULLAH

KHUDA BAKSH

MA Education

AUTUMN 2022

ALLAMA IQBAL OPEN UNIVERSITY ISLAMABAD

Planning For Population Education-1 2

Q.1 Describe the nature, scope and importance of population studies in detail.
In his book Population Problems, written when the discipline of population studies was just
beginning, Warren S. Thompson stated that the following issues pertaining to three major fields
of study were of interest to population studies:
1. What are the changes that are taking place in the size of the population, and how are these
changes brought about? What is the significance of these changes from the standpoint of human
welfare?
2. Where are people found and what are the changes taking place in their distribution in
communities and in areas?
3. What kind of people are found in any given population group and how do those in one group
differ from those in the other?
These questions clearly indicate that the study of population is concerned with its size or
numbers, its structure and characteristics, its distribution and the changes taking place in it over a
period of time.
It is also implied in this description that the subject matter of population studies includes the
study of fertility, mortality, migration and social mobility, that is, the components of change in
the size, structure, characteristics and distribution of population.
Before delving any further into the details of the nature of population studies, it is important at
this juncture to have a broad understanding of the various concepts used in the description of the
scope of population studies.
One important area of study covers the components of population change or the factors
responsible for change in the size of population. It must be understood that the population of any
place at a specific time is a function of three types of events: births, deaths and migration.
There are four ways in which the number of people in any area can undergo change:
(1) Children may be born in that area;
(2) The inhabitants of that area may die;
(3) People from other areas may move into that area; and
(4) Inhabitants of that area may move out.
These components of population change, namely, births, deaths and migration are identified as
fertility, mortality and migration respectively, and are known as demographic or population
Planning For Population Education-1 3

variables because the size, growth, structure and distribution of any population are determined by
them. A study of any population is made through a study of these demographic variables.
It is important to understand at this stage the meaning of population structure and population
characteristics.
Population structure implies the age and sex structure of the population and population
characteristics include such characteristics as marital status, literacy and educational status, labor
force status, etc.
Population characteristics, however, can and do change through “social mobility,” that is,
through movements of individuals from one status to another for example from “single” to
“married” status and also through fertility, mortality and migration.
The scope of population studies is quite wide. On the one hand, this subject is concerned with a
quantitative study of the size, structure characteristics and territorial distribution of human
populations and the changes occurring in them.
On the other hand, it is concerned with the study of the underlying causes of population
phenomena. Thus, a student of population is engaged in describing and comparing the size,
structure, characteristics and territorial distribution of the population, and the changes occurring
in it through the study of fertility, mortality, migration and social mobility.
He also attempts to explain population phenomena and situations and the changes in them in the
context of the biological, social, economic and other setting. For instance, population phenomena
take place in a social setting and cannot be studied in isolation.
Hence, while describing, comparing or explaining the determinants and consequences of
population phenomena, social phenomena have to be taken into consideration.
It can be seen that the study of population is multidisciplinary in nature, involving an
understanding of biology, genetics, mathematics, statistics, economics, sociology, cultural
anthropology, psychology, politics, geography, medicine, public health, ecology, etc.
References
https://www.sociologydiscussion.com/demography/demography-meaning-scope-and-importance
sociology/2932#:~:text=Population%20studies%20help%20us%20to,the%20economy%20will%
20be%20slow.
https://www.preservearticles.com/education/what-are-the-nature-and-scope-of-population-
studies/16140
Planning For Population Education-1 4

Q.2 What is meant by overpopulation? Discuss the consequences of over

population and strategies to overcome it in a developing country like
Pakistan.
Overpopulation is an undesirable condition where the number of the existing human population
exceeds the actual carrying capacity of Earth. Overpopulation is caused by a number of
factors. Reduced mortality rate, better medical facilities, depletion of precious resources are
few of the causes which result in overpopulation. It is possible for a sparsely populated area
to become densely populated if it is not able to sustain life.
Growing advances in technology with each coming year has affected humanity in many ways.
One of these has been the ability to save lives and create a better medical treatment for all. A
direct result of this has been the increased lifespan and the growth of the population.
00:28
00:30
In the past fifty years or so, the growth of the population has boomed and has turned into
overpopulation. In the history of our species, the birth and death rates have always been able to
balance each other and maintain a population growth rate that is sustainable.
Since the time of the Bubonic Plague in the 1400s, the growth of the population has been on a
constant increase. Between the time of the plague and the 21st century, there have been hundreds
and thousands of wars, natural calamities, and man-made hazards.
However, none of these could make a dent on the population. Developing nations face the
problem of overpopulation more than developed countries, but it affects most of the Earth as of
now. When we are talking about overpopulation, we should first try to understand the underlying
causes of it.
Various Causes of Overpopulation
1. The Decline in the Death Rate
At the root of overpopulation is the difference between the overall birth rate and death rate in
populations. If the number of children born each year equals the number of adults that die, then
the population will stabilize.
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Talking about overpopulation shows that while there are many factors that can increase the death
rate for short periods of time, the ones that increase the birth rate do so over a long period of
time.
The discovery of agriculture by our ancestors was one factor that provided them with the ability
to sustain their nutrition without hunting. This created the first imbalance between the two rates.
2. Agricultural Advancements
Technological revolutions and population explosions occur at the same time. There have been
three major technological revolutions. They are the tool-making revolution, the agricultural
revolution, and the industrial revolution.
Agricultural advancements in the 20th century have allowed humans to increase food production
using fertilizers, herbicides, and pesticides and yields further. This allowed humans with more
access to food that leads to subsequent population explosions.
3. Better Medical Facilities
Following this the industrial revolution started. Technological advancement was perhaps the
biggest reason why the balance has been permanently disturbed.
Science was able to produce better means of producing food, which allowed families to feed
more mouths. Besides, medical science made many discoveries, thanks to which they were able
to defeat a whole range of diseases.
Illnesses that had claimed thousands of lives until now were cured because of the invention of
vaccines. Combining the increase in food supply with fewer means of mortality tipped the
balance and became the starting point of overpopulation.
4. More Hands to Overcome Poverty
However, when talking about overpopulation, we should understand that there is a psychological
component as well. Poverty is considered as the leading cause of overpopulation. In the absence
of educational resources, coupled with high death rates, which resulted in higher birth rates, that
is why impoverished areas are seeing large booms in population.
For thousands of years, a very small part of the population had enough money to live in comfort.
The rest faced poverty and would give birth to large families to make up for the high infant
mortality rate.
Families that have been through poverty, natural disasters, or are simply in need of more hands
to work are a major factor for overpopulation.
Planning For Population Education-1 6

As compared to earlier times, most of these extra children survive and consume resources that
are not sufficient in nature.
According to the UN, the forty-eight poorest countries in the world are also likely to be the
biggest contributors to population growth. Their estimates say that the combined population of
these countries is likely to increase to 1.7 billion in 2050, from 850 million in 2010.
5. Child Labor
It is no less than a tragedy that child labor is still in practice extensively in many parts of the
world. As per the UNICEF, approximately 150 million children are currently working in
countries having few child labor laws. The children being seen as a source of income by
impoverished families begin work too young and also lose the educational
opportunities reflected, particularly when it comes to birth control.
6. Technological Advancement in Fertility Treatment
With the latest technological advancement and more discoveries in medical science, it has
become possible for couples who are unable to conceive to undergo fertility treatment methods
and have their own babies.
Today there are effective medicines that can increase the chance of conception and lead to a rise
in the birth rate. Moreover, due to modern techniques, pregnancies today are far safer.

7. Immigration
Many people prefer to move to developed countries like the US, UK, Canada, and Australia,
where the best facilities are available in terms of medical, education, security, and employment.
The result is that those people settle over there, eventually making those places overcrowded.
If the number of people who are leaving the country is less than the number of people who enter,
it usually leads to more demand for food, clothes, energy, and homes.
This gives rise to a shortage of resources. Though the overall population remains the same, it just
affects the density of the population, making that place simply overcrowded.
8. Lack of Family Planning
Most developing nations have a large number of people who are illiterate, live below the poverty
line, and have little or no knowledge about family planning. Besides, getting their children
married at an early age increases the chances of producing more kids.
Planning For Population Education-1 7

Those people are unable to understand the harmful effects of overpopulation, and lack of quality
education prompts them to avoid family planning measures.
9. Poor Contraceptives Use
Poor family planning on the part of partners can lead to unexpected pregnancies though
contraceptives are easily available in developed countries.
As per statistics, 76% of women aged between 16 and 49 in Great Britain used at least one form
of contraceptive, leaving a quarter open to unexpected pregnancies. Whereas a study by the
World Health Organization (WHO) shows that this figure drops to 43% in underdeveloped
countries, which leads to higher birth rates.
Fatal Effects of Overpopulation
1. Depletion of Natural Resources
The effects of overpopulation are quite severe. The first of these is the depletion of resources.
The Earth can only produce a limited amount of water and food, which is falling short of the
current needs.
Most of the environmental damage seen in the last fifty-odd years is because of the growing
number of people on the planet. They include cutting down forests, hunting wildlife in a reckless
manner, causing pollution, and creating a host of other problems.
Those engaged in talks about overpopulation have noticed that acts of violence and aggression
outside of a war zone have increased tremendously while competing for resources.
2. Degradation of Environment
With the overuse of coal, oil, and natural gas, it has started producing some serious effects on our
environment. Besides, the exponential rise in the number of vehicles and industries has badly
affected the quality of air.
The rise in the amount of CO2 emissions leads to global warming. Melting of polar ice
caps, changing climate patterns, rise in sea levels are a few of the consequences that we might
have to face due to environmental pollution.
3. Conflicts and Wars
Overpopulation in developing countries puts a major strain on the resources it should be utilizing
for development. Conflicts over water are becoming a source of tension between countries,
which could result in wars. It causes more diseases to spread and makes them harder to control.
Planning For Population Education-1 8

Starvation is a huge issue that the world is facing, and the mortality rate for children is being
fueled by it. Poverty is the biggest hallmark we see when talking about overpopulation.
All of this will only become worse if solutions are not sought out for the factors affecting our
population. We can no longer prevent it, but there are ways to control it.
4. Rise in Unemployment
When a country becomes overpopulated, it gives rise to unemployment as there are fewer jobs to
support a large number of people. The rise in unemployment gives rise to crime, such as theft, as
people want to feed their families and provide them basic amenities of life.
5. High Cost of Living
As the difference between demand and supply continues to expand due to overpopulation, it
raises the prices of various essential commodities, including food, shelter, and healthcare. This
means that people have to pay more to survive and feed their families.
References
https://notesforpakistan.blogspot.com/2009/11/population-studies-and-its-importance.html?m=1
http://ahsankhaneco.blogspot.com/2012/04/over-population-in-pakistan-causes.html?m=1
Q.3 What is the rationale of papulation education and compare the statistics
relating to major population characteristics in Pakistan, India and
Bangladesh.
It is mandated in the Constitution of Pakistan to provide free and compulsory education to all
children between the ages of 5-16 years and enhance adult literacy. With the 18th constitutional
amendment the concurrent list which comprised of 47 subjects was abolished and these subjects,
including education, were transferred to federating units as a move towards provincial autonomy.
The year 2015 is important in the context that it marks the deadline for the participants of Dakar
declaration (Education for All [EFA] commitment) including Pakistan. Education related
statistics coupled with Pakistan’s progress regarding education targets set in Vision 2030 and
Pakistan’s lagging behind in achieving EFA targets and its Millennium Development
Goals(MDGs) for education call for an analysis of the education system of Pakistan and to look
into the issues and problems it is facing so that workable solutions could be recommended.
What is Education System?
Planning For Population Education-1 9

The system of education includes all institutions that are involved in delivering formal education
(public and private, for-profit and nonprofit, onsite or virtual instruction) and their faculties,
students, physical infrastructure, resources and rules. In a broader definition the system also
includes the institutions that are directly involved in financing, managing, operating or regulating
such institutions (like government ministries and regulatory bodies, central testing organizations,
textbook boards and accreditation boards). The rules and regulations that guide the individual
and institutional interactions within the set up are also part of the education system.
Education system of Pakistan:
The education system of Pakistan is comprised of 260,903 institutions and is facilitating
41,018,384 students with the help of 1,535,461 teachers. The system includes 180,846 public
institutions and 80,057 private institutions. Hence 31% educational institutes are run by private
sector while 69% are public institutes.
Analysis of education system in Pakistan
Pakistan has expressed its commitment to promote education and literacy in the country by
education policies at domestic level and getting involved into international commitments on
education. In this regard national education policies are the visions which suggest strategies to
increase literacy rate, capacity building, and enhance facilities in the schools and educational
institutes. MDGs and EFA programmers are global commitments of Pakistan for the promotion
of literacy.
A review of the education system of Pakistan suggests that there has been little change in
Pakistan’s schools since 2010, when the 18th Amendment enshrined education as a fundamental
human right in the constitution. Problems of access, quality, infrastructure and inequality of
opportunity, remain endemic.
Issues
A) MDGs and Pakistan
Due to the problems in education system of Pakistan, the country is lagging behind in achieving
its MDGs of education. The MDGs have laid down two goals for education sector:
Goal 2: The goal 2 of MDGs is to achieve Universal Primary Education (UPE) and by 2015,
children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary
schooling. By the year 2014 the enrolment statistics show an increase in the enrolment of
Planning For Population Education-1 10

students of the age of 3-16 year while dropout rate decreased. But the need for increasing
enrolment of students remains high to achieve MDGs target. Punjab is leading province wise in
net primary enrolment rate with 62% enrolment. The enrolment rate in Sindh province is 52%, in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) 54% and primary enrolment rate in Baluchistan is 45%.
Goal 3: The goal 3 of MDGs is Promoting Gender Equality and Women Empowerment. It is
aimed at eliminating gender disparity in primary and secondary education by 2005 and in all
levels of education not later than 2015. There is a stark disparity between male and female
literacy rates. The national literacy rate of male was 71% while that of female was 48% in 2012-
13. Provinces reported the same gender disparity. Punjab literacy rate in male was 71% and for
females it was 54%. In Sindh literacy rate in male was 72% and female 47%, in KPK male 70%
and females 35%, while in Baluchistan male 62% and female 23%.
B) Education for All (EFA) Commitment
The EFA goals focus on early childhood care and education including pre-schooling, universal
primary education and secondary education to youth, adult literacy with gender parity and
quality of education as crosscutting thematic and programmer priorities.
EFA Review Report October 2014 outlines that despite repeated policy commitments, primary
education in Pakistan is lagging behind in achieving its target of universal primary education.
Currently the primary gross enrolment rate stands at 85.9% while Pakistan requires increasing it
up to 100% by 2015-16 to fulfil EFA goals. Of the estimated total primary school going 21.4
million children of ages 5-9 years, 68.5% are enrolled in schools, of which 8.2 million or 56%
are boys and 6.5 million or 44% are girls. Economic Survey of Pakistan confirms that during the
year 2013-14 literacy remained much higher in urban areas than in rural areas and higher among
males.
C) Vision 2030
Vision 2030 of Planning Commission of Pakistan looks for an academic environment which
promotes the thinking mind. The goal under Vision 2030 is one curriculum and one national
examination system under state responsibility. The strategies charted out to achieve the goal
included:
(i) Increasing public expenditure on education and skills generation from 2.7% of GDP to 5% by
2010 and 7% by 2015.
(ii) Re-introduce the technical and vocational stream in the last two years of secondary schools.
Planning For Population Education-1 11

(iii) Gradually increase vocational and technical education numbers to 25-30% of all secondary
enrolment by 2015 and 50 per cent by 2030.
(iv) Enhance the scale and quality of education in general and the scale and quality of
scientific/technical education in Pakistan in particular.
Problems:
The issues lead to the comprehension of the problems which are faced in the development of
education system and promotion of literacy. The study outlines seven major problems such as:
1) Lack of Proper Planning:
Pakistan is a signatory to MDGs and EFA goals. However it seems that it will not be able to
achieve these international commitments because of financial management issues and constraints
to achieve the MDGs and EFA goals.
2) Social constraints:
It is important to realize that the problems which hinder the provision of education are not just
due to issues of management by government but some of them are deeply rooted in the social
and cultural orientation of the people. Overcoming the latter is difficult and would require a
change in attitude of the people, until then universal primary education is difficult to achieve.
3) Gender gap:
Major factors that hinder enrolment rates of girls include poverty, cultural constraints, illiteracy
of parents and parental concerns about safety and mobility of their daughters. Society’s emphasis
on girl’s modesty, protection and early marriages may limit family’s willingness to send them to
school. Enrolment of rural girls is 45% lower than that of urban girls; while for boys the
difference is 10% only, showing that gender gap is an important factor.
4) Cost of education:
The economic cost is higher in private schools, but these are located in richer settlements only.
The paradox is that private schools are better but not everywhere and government schools ensure
equitable access but do not provide quality education.
5) War on Terror:
Pakistan’s engagement in war against terrorism also affected the promotion of literacy campaign.
The militants targeted schools and students; several educational institutions were blown up,
teachers and students were killed in Baluchistan, KPK and FATA. This may have to contribute
not as much as other factors, but this remains an important factor.
Planning For Population Education-1 12

6) Funds for Education:

Pakistan spends 2.4% GDP on education. At national level, 89% education expenditure
comprises of current expenses such as teachers’ salaries, while only 11% comprises of
development expenditure which is not sufficient to raise quality of education.
References
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2075591/
https://m.timesofindia.com/world/south-asia/why-population-is-a-bigger-worry-for-pakistan-
than-india-or-bangladesh/amp_articleshow/92982638.cms
Q.4 What should be the important functions of population education?
Appreciate the need of different programmers that can help to achieve the
goals.
Most of the people agree ‘Population Education’ with education of the population. If we go deep
into the matter, we will find that population education is education about population matter, i.e.,
fertility, mortality, migration etc. It is an educational process which helps people to understand
the nature, the causes, and consequences of population events.
It is a factual knowledge about population dynamic. Population education is an educational
process, which helps individual to learn about population and particularly the effect of
population dynamic and the related problem on the individuals, family, community, nation and
the world.
Its main purpose is to create awareness, to provide knowledge and to develop positive attitude
for improving population situation to ensure a better life now and in future.
Challenging Issues in Population Education:
Definitions of Population Education:
Burbson:
“Population education is an exploration of knowledge and attitude about population, the family
and sex. It includes population awareness, family living, reproduction education and basic
values.”
Gopal Rao:
Planning For Population Education-1 13

“Population education may be defined as an educational programmer which provides for a study
of the population phenomenon so as to enable the students to take rational decisions towards
problems arising out of rapid population growth.”
UNESCO:
“Population education is an educational programme which provides for a study of population
situation of the family, the community, nation and world, with the purpose of developing in the
student’s rational and responsible attitudes and behavior towards that situation.”
Summing up the meaning:
i. An educational programmer.
ii. Generation of interest and opportunity to study the effects of population growth of individual,
family, community and country.
iii. Developing awareness about population control and positive and healthy attitudes about the
programme among the youths.
The National Seminar on Population Education:
In 1969 a seminar organized by Family Planning Sangt gave first emphasis in introducing
population education in India and Govt. of India made NPP (National Population Policy) in
1976. “It is essentially related to human resource development. It is not only concerned with
population awareness but also with the developing values and attitudes which take care of the
quality and quantity of population. It must explain to the students cause and effect relationship,
so as to enable them to make rational decision on their own behavior on population matters.”
From the analysis of the above given definitions we find that population education is an
exploration of knowledge and attitudes about population, family living, reproduction education
and basic values. It also gives hints about the problems created by ever-increasing population.
Need and Importance of Population Education:
Population explosion affects every aspect of man’s life-individual, national and international. It
affects health, wealth and happiness of individual and families.
It also affects the prosperity and progress of nations, international security and peace. In order to
minimize the problems like food problem, economic problem, younger generation problem,
environmental problem and educational problem, there is an urgent need of population education
at all levels.
Thus the idea of population education is based on the following assumptions:
Planning For Population Education-1 14

(i) Rapid growth of population is a constant threat to our economic development.

(ii) Over-population affects the health and well-being of the younger generation.
(iii) Population explosion creates an obstacle for raising the standard of living of the masses.
(iv) Population education is not to be mixed with sex education or the methods of family
planning. Rather it should be a motivational force for creating the right attitude to family size.
(v) Population education is not a “once for all affairs”, rather, it should be continuous process.
Hence, population education needs to be given top priority in the present scenario. The younger
generation needs to be informed about India’s population’s problems. They need to be properly
educated with new ideas for leading a better adult life.
The present situation needs population education because it is a new content area and is highly
relevant to the lives of the people. It also encourages improvements in methods of teaching, in
the structure of the system of education, in the value of the students and the teachers and in so
many other areas.
General Aims of Population Education:
The aims of population education are as follows:
(i) Population education aims at assisting the individual to understand the causes and
consequences of population phenomena.
(ii) It enables the individual to understand how docs population situation affect the individual
and society.
(iii) It aims at recognizing the causes of demographic phenomena and to enable the people to
make changes in order to remove those obstacles for social progress.
(iv) It enables to acquire knowledge, skills, attitudes and values necessary to understand the
concept of population education.
(v) It enables the learner to take a conscious and right decision about the prevailing population
situations.
Contents of Population Education:
The NCERT organized a workshop on “Population Education” at New Delhi in July 1970.
It suggested that the following five areas should form the curriculum of
population education:
i. The Population Growth.
Planning For Population Education-1 15

ii. Economic Development and Population.

iii. Social Development and Population.
iv. Health, Nutrition and Population.
v. Biological Factors, Family life and Population.
References
https://www.ipl.org/essay/Importance-Of-Population-Education-FK8GPL2FJ486
https://www.mid-day.com/lifestyle/culture/article/the-need-for-population-education-in-school-
curriculum-21341169
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/population.asp
Q.5 What is population Phenomenon? Describe the significance of population
statistics.
At the beginning of the nineteenth century, the total world population crossed the threshold of 1
billion people for the first time in the history of the Homo sapiens sapiens. Since then, growth
rates have been increasing exponentially, reaching staggeringly high peaks in the 20th century
and slowing down a bit thereafter. Total world population reached 7 billion just after 2010 and is
expected to count 9 billion by 2045. This paper first charts the differences in population growth
between the world regions. Next, the mechanisms behind unprecedented population growth are
explained and plausible scenarios for future developments are discussed. Crucial for the long
term trend will be the rate of decline of the number of births per woman, called total fertility.
Improvements in education, reproductive health and child survival will be needed to speed up the
decline of total fertility, particularly in Africa. But in all scenarios, world population will
continue to grow for some time due to population momentum. Finally, the paper outlines the
debate about the consequences of the population explosion, involving poverty and food security,
the impact on the natural environment, and migration flows.
Introduction
In the year 1900, Belgium and the Philippines had more or less the same population, around 7
million people. By the year 2000, the population of the Western European monarchy had grown
to 10 million citizens, while the South East Asian republic at the turn of the century already
counted 76 million citizens. The population of Belgium has since then exceeded 11 million
citizens, but it is unlikely that this number will rise to 12 million by the year 2050. The
Planning For Population Education-1 16

population of the Philippines on the other hand will continue to grow to a staggering 127 million
citizens by 2050, according to the demographic projections of the United Nations (UN 2013).
The demographic growth rate of the Philippines around the turn of the century (2% a year) has
already created enormous challenges and is clearly unsustainable in the long term: such growth
implies a doubling of the population every 35 years as a consequence of which there would be
152 million people by 2035, 304 million by 2070, and so on. Nobody expects such a growth to
actually occur. This contribution will discuss the more realistic scenarios for the future.
Even the rather modest Belgian demographic growth rate around the turn of this century (0.46%)
is not sustainable in the long term. In any case, it exceeds by far the average growth rate of the
human species (homo sapiens sapiens) that arose in Africa some 200.000 years ago. Today, earth
is inhabited by some 7 billion people. To achieve this number in 200.000 years, the average
yearly growth rate over this term should have been around 0.011% annually (so 11 extra human
beings per 1.000 human beings already living on earth). The current Belgian growth rate would
imply that our country would have grown to 7 billion in less than 1500 years.
The point of this story is that the current growth numbers are historically very exceptional and
untenable in the long term. The demographic growth rates are indeed on the decline worldwide
and this paper will attempt to explain some of the mechanisms behind that process. That doesn’t
change the fact, however, that the growth remains extraordinarily high and the decline in some
regions very slow. This is especially the case in Sub Saharan Africa. In absolute numbers, the
world population will continue to grow anyway for quite some time as a result of demographic
inertia. This too will be further clarified in this paper.
The evolution of the world population in numbers
In order to be sustainable, the long term growth rate of the population should not differ much
from 0%. That is because a growth rate exceeding 0% has exponential implications. In simple
terms: if a combination of birth and growth figures only appears to cause a modest population
growth initially, then this seems to imply an explosive growth in the longer term.
Thomas R. Malthus already acquired this point of view by the end of the 18th century. In his
famous “Essay on the Principle of Population” (first edition in 1789), Malthus argues justly that
in time the growth of the population will inevitably slow down, either by an increase of the death
rate or by a decrease of the birth rate. On a local scale, migration also plays an important role.
Planning For Population Education-1 17

It is no coincidence that Malthus’ essay appeared in England at the end of the 18th century. After
all, the population there had started to grow at a historically unseen rate. More specifically the
proletariat had grown immensely and that worried the intellectuals and the elite. Year after year,
new demographic growth records were recorded.
At the beginning of the 19th century, the number of 1 billion people was exceeded for the first
time in history. Subsequently growth accelerated and the number of 2 billion people was already
surpassed around 1920. By 1960, another billion had been added, in 40 instead of 120 years time.
And it continued to go even faster: 4 billion by 1974, 5 billion by 1987, 6 billion by 1999 and 7
billion in 2011 (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1
Historical growth of the world population since year 0
This will certainly not stop at the current 7 billion. According to the most recent projections by
the United Nations, the number of 8 billion will probably be exceeded by 2025, and around 2045
there will be more than 9 billion people1. The further one looks into the future, the more
uncertain these figures become, and with demography on a world scale one must always take
into account a margin of error of a couple of tens of millions. But according to all plausible
scenarios, the number of 9 billion will be exceeded by 2050.
Demographic growth was and is not equally distributed around the globe. The population
explosion first occurred on a small scale and with a relatively moderate intensity in Europe and
America, more or less between 1750 and 1950. From 1950 on, a much more substantial and
intensive population explosion started to take place in Asia, Latin America and Africa . Asia
Planning For Population Education-1 18

already represented over 55% of the world population in 1950 with its 1.4 billion citizens and by
the year 2010 this had increased to 4.2 billion people or 60%. Of those people, more than 1.3
billion live in China and 1.2 billion in India, together accounting for more than one third of the
world population.
References
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/population-and-population-related-
phenomena
https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/introduction-to-population-demographics-
83032908/
https://www.britannica.com/science/population-biology-and-anthropology