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Advances in Climate Change Research 7 (2016) 201e203
Editorial
The “Sino-India Monitor on INDCs Adequacy and Necessity”
(SIMIAN) initiative
The papers in this special topic of Sino-India Monitor on
NDCs, authored by a select group of researchers from both
China and India, provide a perspective on areas of common
interest for societies in both countries as well as a focus on
common objectives defining global action. Climate change
impacts are creating serious consequences for both countries,
which need no elaboration at this stage. However, projections
for the future would certainly indicate that China and India
need not only to embark on a programme of adequate and
widespread adaptation measures, but given the fact that both
countries would in the future account for a sizeable share of
global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), they also need
a mutually coordinated approach for mitigation measures,
including possibly the use of carbon capture and storage
(CCS). It must also be remembered that mitigation of GHGs
would carry substantial co-benefits for both societies, since
along with reduction of GHG emissions local air quality would
also improve proportionately. It is well known that the cities
and other areas in both China and India have serious problems
of air pollution, which has significantly harmful effects on
human health, leading to higher morbidity and mortality. In
order to ensure that China and India coordinate the exchange
of information and knowledge in a manner that serves the
interest of both the countries equally, it is proposed that a
group of researchers and research institutions in both countries
develop and launch an initiative to regularly monitor and
analyse the progress of climate related actions in both nations.
The agreement reached at COP21 in Paris, and which
formally came into existence in November, 2016, is essentially
centered around NDCs of different countries which are part of
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC). Irrespective of the review mechanism
which is decided on and the frequency of possible reviews, it is
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Meteorological Administration).
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important that civil society and research organisations assess
the contributions intended as part of the nationally determined
contributions (NDCs) and evaluate these against the RCP2.6
(Representative Concentration Pathway) which has been used
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in
its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) as the scenario most likely
to ensure keeping temperature increase to below 2  C by the
end of this century relative to pre-industrial levels. Since the
world's ability or otherwise of moving along the RCP2.6
scenario is to be seen against the background essentially of the
sum total of NDCs submitted by governments, it is important
for global society to know how far we are from RCP2.6, based
on these contributions and what would be involved both if we
do not adhere to this pathway in terms of impacts and what
would be the steps to be taken to move along this pathway. We
also need to evaluate how we might actually raise the level of
global ambition to reach RCP2.6 and create adequate mo-
mentum to move along it.
One of the decisions taken by COP21 in Paris was to
request the IPCC to prepare a special report which focuses on
the impacts and other aspects of a target limited to 1.5  C as
the permissible rise in temperature by the end of the 21st
century. The IPCC in its recent plenary sessions held in Nai-
robi has confirmed its plans to undertake this exercise, which
clearly emphasizes the urgency of adequate emissions reduc-
tion and the need for monitoring global action on a continuous
basis. As the IPCC AR5 has clearly highlighted, if the world
has to meet even the difficult target of 2  C relative to pre-
industrial levels and we delay action, this goal could possibly
recede from the realm of feasibility. The technology and ac-
tions that would be required to maintain a 2  C limit may go
beyond the capacity of current systems, infrastructure and
technological capabilities to achieve. A target of 1.5  C if
adopted in the coming few years would be even more difficult
to achieve.
1. Review of recent developments
The proposed initiative involving Chinese and Indian pro-
fessionals would carry out a careful assessment of prominent
202 Editorial / Advances in Climate Change Research 7 (2016) 201e203
events which constitute losses and damages in different parts
of the world and which could possibly be linked to the impacts
of climate change. Since it would not be possible to link and
assign attribution of any of these events to human induced
climate change, the project would merely discuss the types of
losses and damages that were assessed as having occurred,
without attempt at attribution. This part of the review would
only be provided as background information, so that readers
and global society at large understand the nature of these
losses and damages and the possibility of similar events in the
future with higher frequency and intensity as projected by the
AR5 and the Special Report on Managing the Risks of
Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change
Adaptation (SREX).
In this section there would also be a review of significant
developments in the debate over climate change and positions
taken by governments and other stakeholders including leaders
of business, thought leaders and major research institutions
and think tanks. It would be useful for both China and India to
continuously assess how global opinion and thought on the
subject evolves against the backdrop of increasing knowledge
and information on climate change.
2. RCP2.6 scenario
The RCP2.6 scenario will be assessed carefully under this
section, highlighting not only the exact trajectory of this
pathway but also the kinds of actions that would bring about
its realisation over time, and which would constitute the un-
derpinnings of this scenario. The importance of RCP2.6 would
be highlighted in relation to the aspirational 2  C target set by
the global community as the limit of increase in temperature
that needs to be the goal of climate policy and actions globally.
The RCP2.6 scenario incorporates a range of options to
reduce emissions of GHGs, and adherence to these options and
implementing the technological solutions involved need to be
assessed on a dynamic basis. The SIMIAN initiative should
lay down a clear process by which such evaluation of the
RCP2.6 characteristics and adherence to them would be
carefully evaluated.
3. The importance of limiting the extent of warming
The review carried out under the UNFCCC during the
period 2013e2015 has not taken a position on whether the
world should limit warming to 1.5  C or 2  C as envisaged
earlier. Further, the subject of 1.5  C or 2  C would be dis-
cussed under this section, simply because in the light of further
information on the impacts of climate change, it is entirely
possible that the global community would decide that the limit
of warming should not go beyond 1.5  C. However, as pro-
vided in the AR5 there are very few scenarios which have
identified the actions and the pathway by which limit of
temperature increase could be set at 1.5  C. Further, drawing
on the work of the AR5 the reasons for concern as well as
specific impacts included in the AR5 would be highlighted in
this section to establish that lowering of risks is important to
human society and ecosystems, and the elimination, reduction
or delay in specific impacts associated with different levels of
climate change should be achieved.
Under this section actions to adapt to the impacts of climate
change would also be reviewed, and an assessment put for-
ward on how there would be limits to the extent to which
adaptation may be possible to specific types and levels of
impacts. Focus would also be provided on the most vulnerable
sections of society as well as the most vulnerable ecosystems
which would be threatened by the impacts of climate change.
Both China and India would have serious problems asso-
ciated with sea level rise. In the Fourth Assessment Report
(AR4) the IPCC had identified megadeltas of the world as the
most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and spe-
cifically sea level rise. Megadeltas include locations such as
Shanghai and the entire KolkataeHowrah region. Other im-
pacts of climate change include serious consequences for
availability of water, maintaining yields in agriculture and
preventing risks to human health as a result of climate change
impacts. Both societies will have to come up with institutional,
technological and knowledge based processes by which
adaptation can be undertaken on an adequate basis.
4. A study of NDCs
The NDCs of specific countries would be studied, and those
which have prominent features of relevance to global society
at large would be highlighted. Specific actions which are of
special relevance would also be drawn out from the NDCs
carefully evaluated and commented on.
All the NDCs submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat would
then be aggregated to arrive at an assessment of actual
reduction of GHG emissions that would be achieved by 2020,
2025 and 2030. In some cases where specific reduction in
GHG emissions is not specified, this would be computed as
part of the proposed ChinaeIndia collaborative project by
clearly stating the assumptions made for this purpose. A
commentary would be provided on the deviation of the
aggregate INDCs as calculated from the RCP2.6 scenario.
5. Using up the GHG emissions budget
One of the most important features of the AR5 was the
computation of the budget of total GHG emissions which
would ensure limiting temperature increase to 2  C by the end
of the 21st century. At the beginning of industrialization the
world had a budget of 2900 Gt of CO2 equivalent, and by
2011, 1900 Gt had already been consumed. In this section a
computation would be carried out of the current value of this
budget having been exhausted and what would be remaining if
the 2  C target was to be adhered to. An assessment would be
made on the basis of current emission trends of how soon this
budget would be exhausted. On that basis some specific pro-
posals would be put forward on how the duration for
exhausting the budget could be extended. There would also be
some discussion on the distribution of emissions to be used by
Annex I and non-Annex I countries on the basis of equity,
 Editorial / Advances in Climate Change Research 7 (2016) 201e203
capability and in conformity with the common but differen-
tiated responsibility criterion laid down in the UNFCCC.
China and India need to jointly highlight the deviation that
is taking place on the part of specific societies from the
principle of common but differentiated responsibility as well
as the ethical dimensions of climate change action.
6. Mitigation possibilities
A review would be carried out of mitigation actions
implemented and intended in different parts of the world. An
assessment would also be made of technologies in respect of
their feasibility and economic characteristics, including those
already developed, those on the horizon and likely to be used
in the very near future and those under development. Institu-
tional issues related to mitigation options will also be reviewed
and discussed in this section.
7. Financial & policy aspects
In this section a detailed assessment would be carried out of
finances deployed in the previous six months both for adap-
tation and mitigation. An assessment would also be carried out
of global sources of finance such as the Green Climate Fund
(GCF) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). Attaining
the RCP2.6 scenario will also be linked and reviewed against
203
the finances that would be required to facilitate this develop-
ment at the global level. In other words, what kind of financial
commitments would be required for reaching the RCP2.6
scenario with a high level of probability.
Finally in this section a detailed summary would be pro-
vided and informed projections made on where the world is
going and what would be the overall outlook in respect of the
RCP2.6 scenario being reached globally.
It is critically important that the research and scientific
community both in China and India get actively engaged in
follow up activities related to the Paris agreement. It is in that
context that the proposed joint initiative would be a unique
opportunity to bring researchers from the two countries
together to work on a collaborative basis in an effort to serve
global and national interests. This would also be a unique
opportunity for SoutheSouth cooperation which can be
showcased and perhaps replicated in other parts of the world.
Rajendra Kumar PACHAURI
Chief Mentor, POP Movement, New Delhi 110 003, India
E-mail address: pachauri@teri.res.in
Received: 18 June 2016
Accepted: 7 December 2016
Available online 4 January 2017