3 jul 19

1. Retail bankruptcy since 2017 in US related to lacking of non-discretionary, low price point,
and service –oriented components in their business.
https://s21.q4cdn.com/421822989/files/doc_financials/2018/q4/Realty-Income-Investor-
Presentation-Institutional-4Q18.pdf

Property terpukul banyak oleh wabah korona

Berdasarkan survey IPW, penjualan properti di daerah jabodetabek sepanjang Q1 2020 turun
sebesar 50%.
Apartment dan Landed House masih ada new project 30 T hingga
Q220

Sewa Perkantoran anjok 22% secara global. Asia pacific turun 9%.
Office REITS list to analyze the future of office constructions
Key drivers for office space demand
1. Urbanization
2. Job growth
a. GDP growth
i. Consumption growth
ii. Investment growth

Key risks
1. Technology for WFH lower the cost for communication
a. High cost in term of financial and mental health of commuting to work.
i. WFH = better work life balance
b. Lower cost because no need pay office rent

Case against key risks

1. Inefficient work if WFH
2. New normal in office such as mask, distancing, frequent hand wash, more frequent
disinfectant cleaning, cubicle shield, etc
3. Even travel and tourism can recover from covid-19
a. New normal in plane, train, bus such as mask etc
i. Hotel occupancy up and demand recover
b. Restaurant order recover
i. Mall demand up because is where most f&b is.
4. Rent cost is low in comparison with firm’s revenue.

Data for rent expense as percentage of revenue for several company

samples in Q4 2019 financial data:
company Rent expense revenue Rent expense % of
revenue
UNVR 16.378 (selling expense) 42,922.563 billion IDR 0.04%
+1.270 (G&A)=17.648
billion IDR
UNTR 1394.459 billion 84,430.478 billion IDR 1.65%
SMSM 5.129+1.232+8.257+2.848 3,935.811 billoin IDR 0.44%
billion IDR = 17.466
Office space rent by office grade in sydney from 2006 to 2016 (include 2008
GFC)

The office rent is increasing, meaning demand is up while new supply is limited plus there inflation.

Office price index and rent index in singapore from 1999-2019

New commercial project contract value in singapore from 1999-2019

Singapore and hongkong population

Singapore employed persons

Good article on property market in singapore after covid 19

https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/how-will-covid-19-outbreak-impact-singapore-property-
market

good article on reit office and covid 19

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/reits-for-investors-impact-on-office-commercial-space-as-
people-work-from-home.html

https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/200609-covid-19-accelerates-structural-
shifts-in-global-office-real-estate-and-reits-11521088
number of shopping center in germany

Case for real estate construction business: mixed-used developments

 Greater convenient because everything is within reach
o Better work life balance

Global Player for Maill Owners: Brookfield Property Partners and

Simon Properties
https://www.wsj.com/articles/property-owner-simon-sees-buying-tenants-as-a-way-to-boost-malls-
11592913601
Indicator untuk industri real estat komersil