Probability-Theory

Fundamental Theorem:

Home Station College

3 2

3*2 = 6
In general first thing can be done in ‘m’ ways and second thing can be done in ‘n’ ways
Both the things can be done in mxn ways.
Probability-Theory
 Probability-Theory

Permutations:
Total no. of books = 3
2 books at a time we need to arrange
Total no. of books = n = 3
want to arrange ‘2’ books at a time
Total no. of permutations =
= 3p2
= 3*2
=6
a,b,c
ab ba
ac ca
bc cb
Probability-Theory
Probability-Theory
 Probability-Theory

Probability
Some events have fixed outcomes
Some events does not have fixed outcomes
Uncertainty will be involved in some cases
Ex: It may rain today
Some chance or probability

Experiment or Trail:
Any operation or a phenomenon which has a number of possible outcomes is called an
experiment or a trail.
Ex: selecting students for a committee, tossing a coin, throwing a die etc.,
 Probability-Theory

Sample space:
A set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called sample space of the experiment
It is denoted by ‘S’
Ex: If a coin is tossed
Sample Space = S = { H, T}

Sample points:
The possible outcomes in a sample space of an experiment are called sample points
The number of sample points in sample points in sample space is denoted by n(s)
For above example
no. of sample points = n(s) = 2
 Probability-Theory

An Event:
Any subset of sample space of an experiment is called an event
It is denoted by A , B…..
Ex: If a coin is tossed
Sample Space = S = { H, T}
Event = A = { H} or
B= { T}
2. If a die is thrown
Sample Space = S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Event = A = odd number
={1, 3, 5}
Probability-Theory
Probability-Theory
Probability-Theory
Questions -Probability
 Questions -Probability

2.An unbiased coin is tossed twice. Find the probability of getting atleast one tail.
Solution:
Sample space S={HH,HT,TH,TT}
n(S) = 4
event = A= Atleast one tail = one or two tails
= {HT,TH,TT}
n(A)= 3
Questions -Probability
 Questions -Probability

3.Two fair dice are rolled, find the probability that the sum of the numbers appearing on the
uppermost faces of the dice is i) greater than 8 ii) less than are equal to 5 iii) perfect square.
Solution:
Sample space S={(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6),
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6),
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6),
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6),
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6),
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}
Total no. of sample points n(S) = 36
If a die thrown sample space contains = 61 = 6
two dice are thrown = 62 = 36
……
Questions -Probability
Questions -Probability
Questions -Probability
Questions -Probability
 Questions –Random variable

Random Variable: A random variable, usually written X, is a variable whose possible values are
numerical outcomes of a random phenomenon. There are two types of random
variables, discrete and continuous.

Discrete Random Variable: A variable x takes discrete vales x1, x2, x3…. Xn with
respective probabilities p1, p2,…pn is called discrete random variable

Continuous Random Variable: A variable x takes continuous vales of x with respective

probabilities p1, p2,…pn is called discrete random variable
Questions –Random variable
 Questions –Random variable

x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P(x)
 Questions –Random variable

x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P(x)
 Questions –Random variable

x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P(x)
 Questions –Random variable

x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P(x)
 Questions –Random variable

x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P(x)
 Questions –Random variable

x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P(x)
 Questions –Random variable

x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P(x)
 Questions –Random variable

x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P(x)
 Questions –Random variable

x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P(x)
 Questions –Random variable

x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P(x)
 Questions –Random variable

x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P(x)
 Questions –Random variable

x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P(x)
 Questions –Random variable

x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P(x)
 Questions –Random variable

x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P(x)
 Questions –Random variable

X 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
P(X)
 Questions –Random variable

X 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
P(X)
 Questions –Random variable

X 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
P(X)
 Probability-Mean and Variance

X -2 -1 0 1 2 3
P(x) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.15 0.05
 Probability-Mean and Variance

X -2 -1 0 1 2 3
P(x) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.15 0.05
 Probability-Mean and Variance

X -2 -1 0 1 2 3
P(x) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.15 0.05
 Probability-Mean and Variance

X -2 -1 0 1 2 3
P(x) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.15 0.05
 Probability-Mean and Variance

x P(x) x. P(x)
-2 0.1 -0.2
-1 0.2
0 0.2
1 0.3
2 0.15
3 0.05
 Probability-Mean and Variance

x P(x) x. P(x)
-2 0.1 -0.2
-1 0.2 -0.2
0 0.2 0
1 0.3
2 0.15
3 0.05
 Probability-Mean and Variance

x P(x) x. P(x)
-2 0.1 -0.2
-1 0.2 -0.2
0 0.2 0
1 0.3 0.3
2 0.15 0.3
3 0.05 0.15
Total 0.35
 Probability-Mean and Variance

x P(x) x. P(x) x2. P(x)

-2 0.1 -0.2 0.4
-1 0.2 -0.2 0.2
0 0.2 0
1 0.3 0.3
2 0.15 0.3
3 0.05 0.15
Total 0.35
 Probability-Mean and Variance

x P(x) x. P(x) x2. P(x)

-2 0.1 -0.2 0.4
-1 0.2 -0.2 0.2
0 0.2 0 0
1 0.3 0.3 0.3
2 0.15 0.3 0.6
3 0.05 0.15 0.45
Total 0.35 1.95
Probability-Mean and Variance

x P(x) x. P(x) x2. P(x)

-2 0.1 -0.2 0.4
-1 0.2 -0.2 0.2
0 0.2 0 0
1 0.3 0.3 0.3
2 0.15 0.3 0.6
3 0.05 0.15 0.45
Total 0.35 1.95
 Probability-Mean and Variance

2. A company has the following probability distribution of number of workers reporting

ill per day.

No. of workers reported 0 1 2 3 4 5

ill per day
Probability 0.2 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.1

Find the average number of workers reporting ill per day.

 Probability-Mean and Variance

No. of workers reported 0 1 2 3 4 5

ill per day
Probability 0.2 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.1
 Probability-Mean and Variance

No. of workers Probability P(x) x. P(x)

(x)
0 0.2 0
1 0.25 0.25
2 0.2
3 0.15
4 0.1
5 0.1
 Probability-Mean and Variance

No. of workers Probability P(x) x. P(x)

(x)
0 0.2 0
1 0.25 0.25
2 0.2 0.4
3 0.15 0.45
4 0.1 0.4
5 0.1 0.5
Total 2.0
Probability-Mean and Variance

No. of workers Probability P(x) x. P(x)

(x)
0 0.2 0
1 0.25 0.25
2 0.2 0.4
3 0.15 0.45
4 0.1 0.4
5 0.1 0.5
Total 2.0
 Probability-Mean and Variance

3. In a certain business a man can make a profit of ₹1,00,000 or suffer a loss of ₹ 50,000.
If the probabilities of profit and loss are 0.6 and 0.4 respectively. Find the expected profit
of the man?

Solution:
Probability-Mean and Variance
Probability-Mean and Variance

Profit/loss (x) P(x) x. P(x)

1,00,000 0.6 60,000
-50,000 0.4 -20,000
Total 40,000
 Probability-Mean and Variance

4. A man runs an ice-cream parlour in a holiday resort. If the summer is

mild he can sell 2500 cups of ice-cream, if it is hot he can sell 4000
cups. It is known that in any year, the probability of mild summer is
1/5 and hot summer is 4/5. A cup of ice-cream costs ₹4 and sold for
₹5.50. What is the expected profit of the man?

Given,
 Probability-Mean and Variance

4. A man runs an ice-cream parlour in a holiday resort. If the summer is mild he can
sell 2500 cups of ice-cream, if it is hot he can sell 4000 cups. It is known that in
any year, the probability of mild summer is 1/5 and hot summer is 4/5. A cup of
ice-cream costs ₹4 and sold for ₹5.50. What is the expected profit of the man?

Given,
Summer is mild-2500 cups- Probability =1/5
Hot summer -4000 cups- probability = 4/5
Cost price per cup = ₹4
Selling price per cup = ₹5.50
Profit per cup = ₹ 1.50
 Probability-Mean and Variance

4. A man runs an ice-cream parlour in a holiday resort. If the summer is mild he can sell 2500
cups of ice-cream, if it is hot he can sell 4000 cups. It is known that in any year, the probability
of mild summer is 1/5 and hot summer is 4/5. A cup of ice-cream costs ₹4 and sold for ₹5.50.
What is the expected profit of the man?

Given,
Summer is mild-2500 – Prob. =1/5 No. of Profit (x) Probabili x. P(x)
cups ty P(x)
Hot summer -4000 – prob. = 4/5
2500 3750 0.2 750
Cost price per cup = ₹4
Selling price per cup = ₹5.50 4000 6000 0.8 4800
Profit per cup = ₹ 1.50 Total 5550
Probability-Mean and Variance

No. of Profit (x) Probabili x. P(x)

cups ty P(x)
2500 3750 0.2 750
4000 6000 0.8 4800
Total 5550
 Probability-Mean and Variance

5. The probability distribution of a random variable is as follows:

X 1 2 4 6 8
P(x) k 2k 3k 3k k

Find i) The value of k ii) E(x) iii) V(x)

 Probability-Mean and Variance

5. The probability distribution of a random variable is as follows:

Find i) The value of k ii) E(x) iii) V(x)

x P(x)
i) Total Probability = 10k =1
1 K
k= 1/10
2 2k
= 0.1
4 3k
6 3k
8 k
Total 10k
 Probability-Mean and Variance

5. The probability distribution of a random variable is as follows:

Find i) The value of k ii) E(x) iii) V(x)

x P(x)
i) Total Probability = 10k =1
1 K=0.1
k= 1/10
2 2k=0.2
= 0.1
4 3k=0.3
6 3k=0.3
8 K=0.1
Total 10k=1.0
 Probability-Mean and Variance

5. The probability distribution of a random variable is as follows:

Find i) The value of k ii) E(x) iii) V(x)

x p(x) x. p(x)
i) Total Probability = 10k =1
k= 1/10 1 K=0.1 0.1
= 0.1 2 2k=0.2 0.4
4 3k=0.3
6 3k=0.3
8 K=0.1
Total 10k=1.0
Probability-Mean and Variance

x p(x) x.p(x)
1 K=0.1 0.1
2 2k=0.2 0.4
4 3k=0.3 1.2
6 3k=0.3 1.8
8 K=0.1 0.8
Total 10k=1.0 4.3
Probability-Mean and Variance

x p(x) x.p(x) x2.p(x)

1 K=0.1 0.1 0.1
2 2k=0.2 0.4 0.8
4 3k=0.3 1.2
6 3k=0.3 1.8
8 K=0.1 0.8
Total 10k=1.0 4.3
Probability-Mean and Variance

x p(x) x.p(x) x2.p(x)

1 K=0.1 0.1 0.1
2 2k=0.2 0.4 0.8
4 3k=0.3 1.2 4.8
6 3k=0.3 1.8 10.8
8 K=0.1 0.8 6.4
Total 10k=1.0 4.3 22.9
Probability-Mean and Variance

x p(x) x.p(x) x2.p(x)

1 K=0.1 0.1 0.1
2 2k=0.2 0.4 0.8
4 3k=0.3 1.2 4.8
6 3k=0.3 1.8 10.8
8 K=0.1 0.8 6.4
Total 10k=1.0 4.3 22.9
 Practice questions on R.V
6. 10,000 tickets are sold in a lottery in which there is a first prize of ₹1,000, two second prizes of ₹500
each and 5 consolation prizes of ₹100 each. One ticket cost ₹1. Find the expected gain or loss if you buy a
ticket.
Ans:
 Practice questions on R.V
6. 10,000 tickets are sold in a lottery in which there is a first prize of ₹1,000, two
second prizes of ₹500 each and 5 consolation prizes of ₹100 each. One ticket cost ₹1.
Find the expected gain or loss if you buy a ticket.
Ans:
1st Prize- ₹ 1,000
2nd prize- ₹ 500
5 Consolation prizes- ₹ 100
Cost of ticket- ₹1
Total no. of tickets-10,000
Remaining tickets- prize - ₹ 0
Let the prize be- ₹x
Probability-p(x)
 Practice questions on R.V
6. 10,000 tickets are sold in a lottery in which there is a first prize of ₹1,000, two
second prizes of ₹500 each and 5 consolation prizes of ₹100 each. One ticket cost ₹1.
Find the expected gain or loss if you buy a ticket.
Ans:
1st Prize- ₹ 1,000 Let the probability distribution of x is given by
2nd prize- ₹ 500
Prize (x) Total No. of P(x) x.P(x)
5 Consolation prizes- ₹ 100
members
Cost of ticket- ₹1 1000 1 1/10000
Total no. of tickets-10,000 500 2
Remaining tickets- prize - ₹ 0 100 5
Let the prize be- ₹x 0 9992
Probability-p(x)
 Practice questions on R.V
5. 10,000 tickets are sold in a lottery in which there is a first prize of ₹1,000, two
second prizes of ₹500 each and 5 consolation prizes of ₹100 each. One ticket cost ₹1.
Find the expected gain or loss if you buy a ticket.
Ans:
1st Prize- ₹ 1,000 Let the probability distribution of x is given by
2nd prize- ₹ 500
Prize (x) P(x) x.P(x)
5 Consolation prizes- ₹ 100
1000 1/10000
Cost of ticket- ₹1
500 2/10000
Total no. of tickets-10,000
100
Remaining tickets- prize - ₹ 0
0
Let the prize be- ₹x
Probability-p(x)
 Practice questions on R.V
5. 10,000 tickets are sold in a lottery in which there is a first prize of ₹1,000, two
second prizes of ₹500 each and 5 consolation prizes of ₹100 each. One ticket cost ₹1.
Find the expected gain or loss if you buy a ticket.
Ans:
1st Prize- ₹ 1,000 Let the probability distribution of x is given by
2nd prize- ₹ 500
Prize (x) P(x) x.P(x)
5 Consolation prizes- ₹ 100
1000 1/10000
Cost of ticket- ₹1
500 2/10000
Total no. of tickets-10,000
100 5/10000
Remaining tickets- prize - ₹ 0
0 9992/10000
Let the prize be- ₹x Total
Probability-p(x)
 Practice questions on R.V
5. 10,000 tickets are sold in a lottery in which there is a first prize of ₹1,000, two
second prizes of ₹500 each and 5 consolation prizes of ₹100 each. One ticket cost ₹1.
Find the expected gain or loss if you buy a ticket.
Ans:
1st Prize- ₹ 1,000 Let the probability distribution of x is given by
2nd prize- ₹ 500
Prize (x) P(x) x.P(x)
5 Consolation prizes- ₹ 100
1000 1/10000 0.1
Cost of ticket- ₹1
500 2/10000
Total no. of tickets-10,000
100 5/10000
Remaining tickets- prize - ₹ 0
0 9992/10000
Let the prize be- ₹x Total
Probability-p(x)
 Practice questions on R.V
5. 10,000 tickets are sold in a lottery in which there is a first prize of ₹1,000, two
second prizes of ₹500 each and 5 consolation prizes of ₹100 each. One ticket cost ₹1.
Find the expected gain or loss if you buy a ticket.
Ans:
1st Prize- ₹ 1,000 Let the probability distribution of x is given by
2nd prize- ₹ 500
Prize (x) P(x) x.P(x)
5 Consolation prizes- ₹ 100
1000 1/10000 0.1
Cost of ticket- ₹1
500 2/10000 0.1
Total no. of tickets-10,000
100 5/10000
Remaining tickets- prize - ₹ 0
0 9992/10000
Let the prize be- ₹x Total
Probability-p(x)
 Practice questions on R.V
5. 10,000 tickets are sold in a lottery in which there is a first prize of ₹1,000, two
second prizes of ₹500 each and 5 consolation prizes of ₹100 each. One ticket cost ₹1.
Find the expected gain or loss if you buy a ticket.
Ans:
1st Prize- ₹ 1,000 Let the probability distribution of x is given by
2nd prize- ₹ 500
Prize (x) P(x) x.P(x)
5 Consolation prizes- ₹ 100
1000 1/10000 0.1
Cost of ticket- ₹1
500 2/10000 0.1
Total no. of tickets-10,000
100 5/10000 0.05
Remaining tickets- prize - ₹ 0
0 9992/10000 0
Let the prize be- ₹x Total 0.25
Probability-p(x)
 Practice questions on R.V
6. 10,000 tickets are sold in a lottery in which there is a first prize of ₹1,000, two
second prizes of ₹500 each and 5 consolation prizes of ₹100 each. One ticket cost ₹1.
Find the expected gain or loss if you buy a ticket.
Ans:
1st Prize- ₹ 1,000 Let the probability distribution of x is given by
2nd prize- ₹ 500
Prize (x) P(x) x.P(x)
5 Consolation prizes- ₹ 100
1000 1/10000 0.1
Cost of ticket- ₹1
500 2/10000 0.1
Total no. of tickets-10,000
100 5/10000 0.05
Remaining tickets- prize - ₹ 0
0 9992/10000 0
Let the prize be- ₹x Total 0.25
Probability-p(x)

Expected profit = E(x) = 0.25

loss = ₹ 1-0.25= ₹ 0.75