Professional Documents
Culture Documents
($ in millions)
Private Co. Multiples Range Latest Quarter (1) Implied TEV Range
Methodology Rev, EBITDA, Net Inc. Low -- High Cash Total Debt Low -- High
TEV / EBITDA
LTM #REF! 8.9x -- 11.6x #REF! -- #REF!
FYE + 1 #REF! 8.2x -- 11.6x #REF! -- #REF!
Price / Earnings
LTM #REF! 14.9x -- 19.6x #REF! #REF! #REF! -- #REF!
FYE + 1 #REF! 14.8x -- 18.0x #REF! #REF! #REF! -- #REF!
(1) Frozen Food Co. does not have preferred stock or minority interest on its balance sheet.
Comparable Public Companies Analysis
($ in millions)
Multiples Analysis
Share
Price % off 52- Market Enterprise TEV / Revenue TEV / EBITDA Price / Earnings
Company Name Ticker 2/11/2013 week High Capitalization Value Cash Debt LTM FYE+1 LTM FYE+1 LTM FYE+1
Kraft Foods Group, Inc. KRFT $47.29 1.5% 27,996 37,720 247 9,971 2.0x 2.0x 11.1x 11.5x 19.6x 18.0x
ConAgra Foods, Inc. CAG 33.37 0.3% 13,705 16,945 477 3,619 1.2x 1.1x 8.9x 8.2x 14.9x 14.8x
H.J. Heinz Company HNZ 60.95 0.4% 19,625 23,703 1,007 5,036 2.0x 2.0x 11.8x 11.6x 17.3x 17.3x
General Mills, Inc. GIS 42.67 0.0% 28,173 36,227 735 8,333 2.1x 2.1x 10.0x 10.6x 14.9x 16.0x
Kellogg Co. K 59.12 0.4% 21,384 29,018 305 7,937 2.1x 1.9x 12.5x 11.1x 17.8x 15.3x
Median 0.4% 21,384
### 29,018
### 477
### 7,937
### 2.0x 2.0x ### 11.1x 11.1x ### 17.3x 16.0x
Mean 0.5% 22,177
### 28,722
### 554
### 6,979
### 1.9x 1.8x ### 10.8x 10.6x ### 16.9x 16.3x
Margins Analysis
CapEx % of
Revenue Growth EBITDA Growth EPS Growth Rev EBIT Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin
Company Name FYE '11-12 FYE '12-13 FYE '11-12 FYE '12-13 FYE '11-12 FYE '12-13 LTM LTM FYE+1 LTM FYE+1 LTM FYE+1
Kraft Foods, Inc. 4.8% 3.1% -4.7% 3.2% -24.9% 9.0% 2.2% 16.1% 15.2% 18.0% 17.1% 7.6% 8.1%
ConAgra Foods, Inc. 7.8% 17.8% -2.9% 24.1% -5.5% 24.0% 2.6% 11.2% 10.4% 13.9% 13.2% 6.7% 5.9%
H.J. Heinz Company 8.8% 1.5% 3.7% 1.2% 7.1% 4.7% 3.6% 14.4% 14.4% 17.4% 17.3% 9.8% 9.6%
General Mills, Inc. 11.9% 4.8% 2.1% 3.0% -9.4% 8.0% 3.9% 17.9% 16.2% 21.2% 19.5% 11.0% 10.1%
Kellogg Co. 6.5% 16.0% -2.5% 10.8% -2.5% 12.0% 3.4% 14.1% 14.0% 17.0% 17.1% 8.8% 9.1%
Median 7.8% ### 4.8% ### -2.5% ### 3.2% ### -5.5% ### 9.0% ### 3.4% ### 14.4% 14.4% ### 17.4% 17.1% ### 8.8% 9.1%
Mean 8.0% ### 8.7% ### -0.9% ### 8.5% ### -7.0% ### 11.5% ### 3.1% ### 14.7% 14.0% ### 17.5% 16.8% ### 8.8% 8.6%
Kraft Foods ConAgra H.J. Heinz General Company Company Company Company Company Company Company
Name Group Foods, Inc. Co. Mills, Inc. Kellogg Co. Name Name Name Name Name Name Name
Company Descriptions Kraft manufactures ConAgra Foods, H.J. Heinz Co. General Mills, Inc. Kellogg Company is Insert Company Insert Company Insert Company Insert Company Insert Company Insert Company Insert Company
and sells Inc. is a packaged manufactures and is a global foods a producer of cereal Information Information Information Information Information Information Information
beverages, coffee food company that sells ketchup, company that and convenience
products, beverage sells brands such condiments and developes and foods that are
mixers, processed as Chef Boyardee sauces, frozen food, markets distinctive manufactured and
cheese, lunch and Hebrew soups, beans and food products under marketed globally.
meats, hot dogs, National. pasta meals, infant unique brand
and bacon. food and other names.
processed food
products.
Stock Price as of mkt close (02/11/13) $47.29 $33.37 $60.95 $42.67 $59.12 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
52 Wk High $48.00 $33.46 $61.18 $42.67 $59.38 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
52 Wk Low $42.00 $23.64 $51.51 $36.75 $46.33 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
% Off High 1.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Enterprise Value $37,720 $16,945 $23,703 $36,227 $29,018 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Equity Value $27,996 $13,705 $19,625 $28,173 $21,384 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
EV / 2012A Sales 2.0x 1.3x 2.0x 2.2x 2.2x NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
EV / LTM Sales 2.0x 1.2x 2.0x 2.1x 2.1x NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
EV / 2013E Sales 2.0x 1.1x 2.0x 2.1x 1.9x NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
EV / 2014E Sales 1.9x 0.9x 1.9x 2.0x 1.8x NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
EV / 2012A EBITDA ex non-recurring items 11.8x 10.2x 11.7x 11.0x 12.2x NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
EV / LTM EBITDA ex non-recurring items 11.1x 8.9x 11.8x 10.0x 12.5x NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
EV / 2013E EBITDA 11.5x 8.2x 11.6x 10.6x 11.1x NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
EV / 2014E EBITDA 10.6x 6.5x 11.3x 10.3x 10.5x NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
EV / 2012A EBIT ex non-recurring items 13.4x 13.1x 14.1x 13.1x 14.5x NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
EV / LTM EBIT ex non-recurring items 12.4x 11.0x 14.2x 11.9x 15.1x NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
EV / 2013E EBIT 12.9x 10.4x 13.9x 12.8x 13.5x NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
EV / 2014E EBIT 11.8x 8.6x 13.6x 12.5x 12.7x NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2012A Gross Margin 31.4% 21.3% 34.3% 36.3% 41.3% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
LTM Gross Margin 32.3% 23.3% 35.0% 37.2% 40.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
2012A EBITDA Margin 17.1% 12.6% 17.3% 19.8% 17.9% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
LTM EBITDA Margin 18.0% 13.9% 17.4% 21.2% 17.0% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2013E EBITDA Margin 17.1% 13.2% 17.3% 19.5% 17.1% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2014E EBITDA Margin 17.9% 14.0% 17.0% 19.5% 17.5% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2012A EBIT Margin 15.1% 9.8% 14.4% 16.6% 15.2% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
LTM EBIT Margin 16.1% 11.2% 14.4% 17.9% 14.1% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2013E EBIT Margin 15.2% 10.4% 14.4% 16.2% 14.0% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2014E EBIT Margin 16.1% 10.6% 14.2% 16.1% 14.5% NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
YTD from 10-Q Prior Year 9/30/2011 11/27/2011 10/26/2011 11/27/2011 10/1/2011
Net Sales $13,620 $6,537 $5,647 $8,471 $10,183
Cost of Goods Sold $9,193 $5,187 $3,695 $5,430 $5,969
Gross Profit $4,427 $1,350 $1,951 $3,041 $4,214 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
SG&A/Operating Expenses $2,129 $846 $1,223 $1,685 $2,635
EBIT (reported) $2,298 $505 $729 $1,357 $1,579 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Non-recurring oper. expenses (gains) ($20) $40 $78 $1 $21
EBIT ex non-recurring items $2,278 $545 $807 $1,357 $1,600 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
D&A $269 $187 $168 $263 $270
EBITDA ex non-recurring items $2,547 $731 $974 $1,621 $1,870 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Net Income (Continuing Operations) $1,438 $277 $476 $850 $999
Non-recurring non-oper. expenses (gains) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Normalized earnings $1,425 $303 $527 $851 $1,013 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Capital Expenditures (CapEx) $267 $161 $175 $265 $392
EPS 5 Yr Growth
FX Country
USD / FX
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Links to 'Comp Spread' Tab
BEST BUY CO. - EXAMPLE ONLY
Fiscal Year Ending ($MMs) 02/25/06 02/25/07 02/25/08 02/25/09 02/25/10 02/25/11
Source:
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis - Project AC/DC
THERE SHOULD BE NO HARDCODES ON THIS TAB
Fiscal Year Ending ($MMs) 02/25/06 02/25/07 02/25/08 02/25/09 02/25/10 02/25/11
Source:
Precedent Transactions - Food/Beverages | Food Processing
($ in millions)
Selected Transactions
06/07/00 Unilever, plc BestFoods, Inc. Consumer foods company and maker of $8,660 $1,614 18.6% $22,995
the brands Knorr Soups, Skippy Peanut
Butter, and Hellman's Mayonnaise,
among others.
06/25/00 Philip Morris Companies, Inc. Nabisco Holdings Corp. International manufacturer of cookies $8,482 $1,326 15.6% $19,017
and crackers, among other consumer
foods products.
07/17/00 General Mills Pillsbury Consumer foods company and maker of $6,078 $802 13.2% $10,500
Hungry Jack pancake mixes, Green
Giant frozen foods, and other items.
04/12/07 Nestle SA Gerber Leading maker of baby foods, selling $1,600 $340 21.3% $5,500
pureed fruits and vegetables in over 80
countries at the time of acquisition.
07/03/07 Kraft Foods, Inc. Groupe Danone (Biscuit Division) Biscuit and baked goods division of $2,700 $525 19.4% $7,200
Group Danone.
04/28/08 Mars Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company Confectioner and maker of gum brands $5,389 $1,181 21.9% $23,082
such as Juicy Fruit, Orbit, Extra and Big
Red.
12/02/00 PepsiCo., Inc. Quaker Oats Company Maker of numerous consumer foods $4,903 $877 17.9% $14,204
products and beverages, including
Gatorade.
12/02/00 Kellogg Co. Keebler Foods Co. Leading maker of cookies and crackers, $2,697 $395 14.6% $4,423
including the Keebler, Cheez-It, Carr's
and Famous Amos brands.
02/13/13 Berkshire Hathaway H.J. Heinz Co. Manufactures and sells ketchup, $11,621 $2,017 17.4% $27,648
condiments and sauces, frozen food,
soups, beans and pasta meals, infant
food and other processed food
products.
Median 17.9%
Mean 17.8%
Heinz Stock Price on 2
Implied Transacti
2.7x 14.2x
2.2x 14.3x
1.7x 13.1x
3.4x 16.2x
2.7x 13.7x
4.3x 19.6x
2.9x 16.2x
1.6x 11.2x
2.4x 13.7x
2.66x 14.2x
2.66x 14.7x
Heinz acquisition by Berkshire Hathaway Statistics
Restricted Stock
Financial Projections
KRAFT FOODS, INC.
Implied Analyses
Valuation Sensitivity Analysis LTM EBITDA Multiple 13.1x
Forward EBITDA Multiple 12.1x
Discount Rate
7.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Source: Kraft Foods Group, Inc. 10K and 10-Q filings, and JP Morgan research report.
- Hard key in center of each X and Y axis the terminal multiple, terminal growth rate, and discount rate exactly as used in assumptions column
- Link increments for horizontal and vertical axes to increment boxes in assumptions column, = center value plus or minus the increment
Financial Projections
KRAFT FOODS, INC.
Equity
Levered Unlevered Risk Cost of Cost of Cost of
Beta Beta Premium (1) Equity Debt Preferred
Kraft Foods Group 0.63 0.51 8.1% 8.0% 5.0% 0.0%
ConAgra Foods, Inc. 0.75 0.64 8.1% 9.0% 7.3% 0.0%
H.J. Heinz Co. 0.61 0.52 8.1% 7.8% 4.3% 5.9%
General Mills, Inc. 0.63 0.53 8.1% 8.0% 4.4% 0.0%
Kellogg Co. 0.50 0.40 8.1% 6.9% 4.5% 0.0%
Median 0.63 0.52 8.0% 4.5% 0.0%
Mean 0.62 0.52 8.0% 5.1% 1.2%
Footnotes:
Source: Company filings, equity analyst research and Zacks Investment Research.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) = (Cost of Debt * (1-Tax Rate) * Debt to Enterprise Value) + (Cost of Equity * Equity to Enterprise Value)
+ (Cost of Preferred * Preferred to Enterprise Value).
Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium).
Risk-free rate as of February 14, 2013.
(1) Ibbotson Associates, "Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation," 2008.
Footnotes:
Source: Company filings, equity analyst research and Bloomberg.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) = (Cost of Debt * (1-Tax Rate) * Debt to Enterprise Value) + (Cost of Equity * Equity to Enterprise Value)
+ (Cost of Preferred * Preferred to Enterprise Value).
Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium).
Risk-free rate as of November 20, 2006.
(1) Ibbotson Associates, Stocks Bonds Bills and Inflation 2005 Yearbook, pp. 138, 140, 169, and 179.
Equity to
Total
Capitalization
73.7%
79.1%
79.6%
77.2%
72.9%
77.2%
76.5%
WACC
6.8%
8.1%
6.8%
6.8%
###
5.8%
6.8%
6.9%
ure Assumptions
0.0%
22.8%
77.2%
6.8%
0.0%
7.9%