So how cold will it be?

The Winter and Spring outlooks for the US and Europe: Implications for
Agriculture and Energy
By Ray Schmitt, Co-Founder of Salient Predictions, and Anthony Atlas, Head of Agriculture and Supply
Chain at Salient Predictions

As we get deeper into fall, we are all reminded that winter is not far behind and with it the potential for
cold and snow for the northern half of the country. The outlook is of particular interest this year
because of the disruption of gas supplies in Europe by the Russian war on Ukraine, and project delays
holding back the growth of domestic supplies in the United States. There is strong competition for
liquified natural gas (LNG) which has become particularly important for heating and electrical power
generation in both the US Northeast and in Europe. When heating demand rises, there’s also increased
competition for propane, a common fuel source for drying grain crops and maintaining optimal climate
conditions inside greenhouses. Propane prices can fluctuate dramatically within a season and weather is
a major driver. Heating demand also competes with the energy needs of food and beverage processing
plants. Deep into the winter they operate around the clock to produce food for the coming year.

So how cold will it be? Fortunately, the long-range forecasts have above normal winter temperatures
for much of the lower 48. Figure 1 below shows the forecasted temperature anomalies (deviations from
historical average) for the months of December, 2022 through January and February of 2023 in North
America, for Salient’s Artificial Intelligence (AI) model (Fig.1.a). The long-range spring forecast for March
April & May is shown in Fig. 1.b.

Figure 1.a. Salient AI forecast from November 15 of the average temperature anomaly for North
America for December, 2022 through February, 2023. The color scale goes from -3 oF to +3oF.
Figure 1.b. Salient’s forecast of the average temperature anomaly for North America for March, April &
May, 2023.

The winter outlook is warm for the southern US but has generally cooler than normal temperatures
from interior Maine to Montana, with coastal Maine trending warm. This suggests cover crops planted
in the fall in the northern most states will need to be especially cold tolerant to succeed this winter.
Spring temperatures look to be even warmer than normal, except for interior Maine and northern
Montana. For producers in the central great plains, a warmer than normal spring is one factor
supporting an early sowing decision (we would have to consider the soil moisture outlook as well). This
bodes well if you are in Kansas and planning to double crop a spring and summer planted crop. Of
course, as spring approaches, the forecast for the summer months will be critical to consider as well. If
the summer forecast suggests above average temperatures, the risk of extreme heat decimating a late
planted crop may outweigh the expected value of any double crop. A heat wave during a critical crop
development window like pollination will erase prior gains. In that scenario, getting an earlier jump on
your main cash crop to maximize its yields while minimizing risk may be the ‘Moneyball’ move. We will
have to watch this closely to see how the season develops.

The cooler Maine average forecast could result from a phenomenon known as blocking that can set up
for a week to ten days and slow the normal west to east progression of weather systems. If weather
systems keep moving west to east then any one wind direction does not have time to dramatically
change the local temperature. However, if the arrangements of high and low pressure systems lock into
a particular pattern for a week or more, then an extreme of temperature could be realized. That is, if
northwest winds persist over Maine for a week, they can transfer colder air from the north, creating an
acute cold snap that lowers the season average temperature. Such blocking seems to be increasingly
frequent as the planet warms. We have recently seen how hurricane & extra-tropical storm Ian was
very slow to move eastward, when it lingered off the US coast for nearly a week while soaking southern
New England and the Mid-Atlantic states with heavy rainfall. So, we fully expect similar blocking
behavior to occur this winter, leading to a few cold snaps in the Northeast that will be counterbalanced
by a generally warmer than average temperatures, except in Maine where they will be severe enough to
bring down the season average.
Europe:

The demand for natural gas in Europe this winter is of great concern because of the cut-off of supplies
from Russia, due to its war on Ukraine. Fortunately, the weather outlook for the coming winter in
Europe is also on the warm side in both Winter and Spring forecasts (Figure 2.a, 2.b). Only Spain and
Portugal look to be cooler than normal. While a warmer than normal average winter temperature may
be good news, the timing of any cold snaps could be crucial. That is, assuming adequate supplies of LNG
have been stockpiled at the start of winter, a few severe cold snaps in January might deplete supplies in
some areas to cause shortages later on in the season. While we hope that an overall mild season
alleviates some of the pressure on Europe’s energy supply this winter, much will depend on the timing
and severity of short duration cold-air outbreaks. Those can be better anticipated weeks ahead, not
months, so our weekly updated outlooks for weeks 2-5 should be particularly useful.

Figure 2.a. The winter ( December, January & February) temperature anomaly forecast for
Europe (oF).
Figure 2.b. Spring temperature anomaly forecast for Europe (March, April and May). Only
western Spain and Turkey are forecast to be cooler, generally warm average temperatures are
expected across most of Europe. The mud season in Ukraine may come early this year.

Ray Schmitt, PhD is an emeritus research scholar at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
president and co-founder of Salient Predictions. He has over 40 years of experience in
oceanographic theory, observations and instrument development at WHOI with over 100
refereed publications and over 11,000 citations He was the NASA Salinity Science Team Leader
from 2006 to 2016 and served two terms on the NASA Earth Sciences Advisory Committee. He
also serves on the boards of non-profits concerned with marine energy and ocean solutions to
climate change.

Anthony Atlas is head of agriculture and supply chain at Salient Predictions. He has led
commercialization and go-to-market for several ground-breaking climate tech and agri-tech
companies, including Salient, ClimateAi and Ceres Imaging. He is the co-founder of the Stanford
alumni in food & ag and passionate about supporting innovators working to solve hard
problems that matter.