Cliff Ehrke

Dr. Johnson
ENGL 1302
11/13/23
Genre 2- Fire Forecasting

As populations increase in an ever-changing climate, it becomes essential to further

understand the elevated risks that this may present. Not the least of which becomes higher than
average wildfire probabilities across the United States. In this guide will be presented some key
factors to monitor when faced with wildfire threats, in the hopes of aiding the decision making of
park staff with regards to burn bans or park closures.

Weather Observations

The first, and most important consideration is simply the daily weather. It has been long
documented that higher air temperatures (>25°C), low relative humidity (<40%), and high wind
(>15kts) can all have a dramatic impact on a fire event occurring. Most up to date information on
these number can be found at your local National Weather Service office in the form of a surface
map.

Fuel Conditions

Another major consideration when assessing wildfire risk becomes the fuel type and
moisture content. Wildfires need a continuous source of dry fuel to burn. Knowing the local flora
distributions can greatly help with the decision-making process. Always account for drought, and
how that might have affected local fuel sources. Fuel conditions also vary seasonally. Summer
and winter tend to have lower soil moisture contents than spring or fall.

Stability

Stability is a measure of the buoyancy of the air. Unstable air is categorized by rapid
ascent, and stable is associated with air sinking. Parcel stability has a great impact on how
quickly a fire grows. It is not uncommon to see a wildfire in ideal conditions burn out in several
hours as the fire simply runs out of oxygen in the air to burn, while a smaller fire grows
exponentially and burns for days with high instability. There are many accurate measures of
stability for various circumstances, but the Haines Index seems to be the most helpful for
wildfire development. The Haines Index can be found on the forest service website, and your
local NWS office.

Ignition

All fire requires an ignition source of some capacity. The most common of these is
human interactions with the environment. With sufficient environmental conditions, especially
over a long period of time, burn bans must be considered for the safety of citizens and the
environment. Burn bans greatly reduce the number of human-made open flames, which are
known to cause the most fires out of any ignition source. The benefit to human ignition is that it
is almost always accessible to firefighters for quick sequestration of the flame. Lightning, the
second largest ignition source, can be much harder to predict and manage. Always observe local
weather conditions to decide if lightning could be a threat in the area.
Cliff Ehrke
Dr. Johnson
ENGL 1302
11/13/23

Other Considerations

Many local weather offices must take certain seasonal, climactic, or localized phenomena
into account when forecasting for any given day. Fire weather is no different. Always account
for potential localized extreme wind events, especially on the leeward side of mountains where
the air is warmer. Consider too the effects that climate change might have in the long term. A
consistent rise in temperature has been correlated to drier fuels, and thus fuels closer to their
ignition point.