Climate Change

Impacts and
Consequences

Australian Centre for Education & Training

WWW.ACET-GLOBAL.COM
What are the costs of inaction?

Orlando Buttie
Monash University, School of Earth, Atmosphere & Environment

August 2020

Contents

Summary .................................................................................................................... 1

Introduction ................................................................................................................ 2

Impacts of climate change ...................................................................................... 3

Water systems ........................................................................................................ 4

Agriculture ............................................................................................................... 4

More Disasters ........................................................................................................ 5

Compromised sanitation ......................................................................................... 7

Health ..................................................................................................................... 8

Psychological health impacts .................................................................................. 8

Sea Level Rise ........................................................................................................ 9

Ocean Acidification ................................................................................................. 9

Wildlife .................................................................................................................. 10

Further resources ..................................................................................................... 12

References ............................................................................................................... 13

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Summary

Global warming will continue to disrupt the health, livelihoods, food security, water
supply, human security, and economic growth of people and societies globally the
more we emit greenhouse gases.

There are many scientific complexities but let’s not lose sight of the fact that climate
change is the result of economic and energy systems based in societies, politics and
power. These are all human decisions and as such, human decisions can also
determine our ability to adapt to, mitigate and prevent further damage and crises.

Overall, it will become much more difficult and costly to live in a world 2 degrees
warmer, especially and disproportionately, for those in developing nations, who often
have contributed the least to the pollution of greenhouse gases.

Climate change will impact everyone on the planet. It is predicted to make many
things more difficult or dangerous such as living near the coast, farming, having
access to water and protecting endangered species.

What this document will cover the following areas of impacts:

• Globally, and the difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees of warming

• A closer look at water systems, agriculture, disasters, sanitation, health, eco-
anxiety, sea-level rise, ocean acidification and wildlife
• What are the likely environmental, economic and social impacts of climate
change?
• Supplemented by further resources

The longer we delay a net draw-down of carbon from the atmosphere, the more
difficult and costly those reductions become. This decade is critical. Unless effective
action is taken, the global climate may be so irreversibly altered that we will struggle
to maintain our current way of life. The choices we make now could shape our future
for centuries.

1
Introduction

In our first document, ‘Climate Change Information and Resources’, we established

the how, why and what of Climate Change. Here, we answer the ‘so what?’. We
outline why climate change is likely to become the defining challenge of the century,
how it threatens the way we currently live; finding the core challenges which climate
change presents us.

This document will cover the following areas of impacts:

• Globally, and the difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees of warming

• A closer look at water systems, agriculture, disasters, sanitation, health,
psychological health, sea-level rise, ocean acidification and wildlife
• What are the likely environmental, economic and social impacts of climate
change?
• Supplemented by further resources

There are lots of scientific complexities but let us not lose sight of the fact that
climate change is the result of economic and energy systems based in societies,
politics and power. These are all human decisions and as such, human decisions
can also determine our ability to adapt to, mitigate and prevent further damage and
crises.

The longer we delay a net draw-down of carbon from the atmosphere, the more
difficult and costly those reductions become. This decade is critical. Unless effective
action is taken, the global climate may be so irreversibly altered that we will struggle
to maintain our present way of life. The choices we make this decade will shape our
longterm climate future.

Overall, it will become much more difficult and costly to live in a world 2 degrees
warmer, especially, disproportionately, for those in developing nations, often who
have contributed the least to the pollution of greenhouse gases.

2
Impacts of climate change

2019 was Australia's warmest year on record, with the annual national mean
temperature 1.5°C above average.1

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has found that climate-related
risks to health, livelihoods, food security, water supply, human security, and
economic growth are projected to increase with global warming of 1.5°C and
increase further with 2°C. 2

We’ve already felt the devastating impacts of 1°C of warming. We also know that this
has been due to human emissions of greenhouse gases and the more we emit the
warmer it gets. Common sense says that we need to reduce emissions as fast as
possible to prevent the most damaging and harmful consequences of climate
change.

Figure 1. How close are we to 1.5°C? Source: IPCC 2018.3

Further resources

• MinuteEarth's short video explaining the fundamentals of climate change.

(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEX2J_sAdGs)
• CISRO's 2011 report, discussing various climate change impacts.
(https://www.publish.csiro.au/ebook/chapter/CSIRO_CC_Chapter%204)

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Water systems

A warmer climate will mean that patterns of rainfall will also change for example the
oceans warm or as forests dry or wind patterns change. While some locations may
see more rain, many will become drier. This becomes a problem when cities or
farmlands which for decades or centuries had enough water to go around, in a short
time span, can no longer meet their water requirements.

For example, rainfall has increased across parts of northern Australia since the
1970s meanwhile the southeast of Australia, including its major cities, has seen a
decline of around 11 per cent in April–October rainfall in since the late 1990s.4

Although impacts will differ around the world, 2°C of warming could see 50% more
people without sufficient water compared to 1.5°C. Unfortunately, these impacts are
likely to be felt by any system or process which uses water.

Agriculture

Our agricultural sectors are likely to also face these challenges around water
availability among others. Some farmers may see limited advantages from climate
change such as longer growing seasons and faster growth as a result of higher
carbon dioxide concentrations.5 However, the negative effects of warming are likely
to outweigh these disadvantages in many places.

Increasing climate-related events such as floods and drought are also likely to
overwhelm farmers. 6 “Overall, climate change is expected to reduce crop yields,
increase heat stress on livestock, reduce chilling periods for stone fruit and reduce
the availability of irrigation, with uncertain impacts on the distribution of pests and
diseases.”7

For more information: https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/infographic-impacts-

climate-change-food-system/

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More Disasters

In general, we can expect weather-related natural hazards to occur more often and
become more intense as the climate warms (although there is high variability
between hazards). Greenhouse gases are turning up the heat making Earth’s
weather systems more energetic and chaotic.

Unfortunately, we are already seeing some of the devastating impacts of more

frequent and intense natural hazards. As we have mentioned, climate trends occur
over many years. This means that no single event can be attributed to climate
change but when we take a step back and count up how often these events are
occurring over many years, we find a pattern.

Figure 1. Source: Munich Re 2020.

This data should be taken with a grain of salt as more disasters does not just mean
that this is due to changes in the climate, but could also be due to greater exposure
(ie. more people in the way of a hazard) and/or worsened vulnerabilities.
Nevertheless, an increasing trend in natural catastrophes is an added problem to the

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climate crisis. There are some natural hazards fore which we are more confident
they will become stronger and more common.

In Australia, climate change will make the conditions for large and intense fires such
as the 2019-20 Black Summer, more common in the future (i.e. low humidity, high
winds, drought and extreme temperatures).”8 This video demonstrates how climate
change affects bushfires: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQL5m7dffe8

There is strong evidence to suggest that Australia will experience more frequent,
more intense and longer-lasting heatwaves. The figure below illustrates this trend.

Figure 2. Number of days each year where the Australian area-averaged daily mean
temperature is extreme—above the 99th percentile every month 1910-2017 (BoM
2018).9

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Heatwaves are the deadliest natural hazard in Australia,
killing more people than all other extreme weather events
combined.10 Taking a deeper dive into Victorian heatwaves,
which are the deadliest hazard we face. during the 2009
Melbourne heatwave, when temperatures exceeded 43°C
for 3 consecutive days, railway lines buckled from heat
stress and, across the 3 days, over one-third of train
services were cancelled.

Further resources:
• The Australian Climate Council’s “Weather Gone Wild” 2018 report has found
climate change is increasing the frequency and/or severity of extreme weather
and that Australians are suffering as a result.
(https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/climate-change-extreme-
weather/)
• Summer of crisis, good short video from Climate Council.
(https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/summer-of-crisis-video/)

• Climate Council's report on climate change fuelled extreme weather in 2018.

(https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Climate-
council-extreme-weather-report.pdf)

• Climate change and its impact on the Australian economy.

(https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/compound-costs-how-climate-
change-damages-australias-economy/)

Compromised sanitation

Not only will water become more scarce in many places, but more frequent natural
hazards such as flooding can destroy infrastructure, contaminate water supplies and
spread disease. Climate change could worsen people’s human rights to sanitation.

Video by Sanitation and Water for All: Impact of Climate Change on sanitation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Hvv2bX5Ydc.

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Howard and colleagues (2016) explore this further in their study entitled ‘Climate
Change and Water and Sanitation: Likely Impacts and Emerging Trends for
Action’.11

As we continue to add energy to the climate system through the burning of fossil
fuels and an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, more disasters are likely to
occur. This will mean more damages but also less time to recover between events,
which could lead to even more vulnerability and even more harm.

Health

In all likelihood, climate change could have negative impacts on health. Factors such
as air pollution and airborne allergens (such as pollen), extreme weather events and
other factors are likely to stress public health. Sadly, vector-borne diseases are likely
to spread to previously uninhabited areas as the Earth warms including malaria,
dengue and schistosomiasis.

Climate change can also affect the core social and environmental determinants of
health such as clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food and secure shelter. The
World Health Organisation reports that, horribly, between 2030 and 2050, climate
change is expected to cause approximately 250 000 additional deaths per year, from
malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress.12 As is with climate impacts as a
whole, the most vulnerable; those without strong health infrastructure, institutions
and resources—mostly in developing countries—will be the least able to cope
without assistnce to prepare and respond.

Psychological health impacts

Eco-anxiety and depression about the future with generalised uncertainty but a high
likelihood of increased hardship. It may be likely that post-traumatic stress disorder
worsens from the increasing frequency and intensity of natural hazards. This is not to
mention the loss and grievances suffered from bushfires and forced migrations.
Unfortunately, aggression, violence and crime are also expected to increase as a
secondary result of worsening climate impacts. Ranson (2013) created models
forecasting that between 2010 and 2099 increased average temperatures as a result

8
of climate change could result in 22,000 additional murders, 1.2 million aggravated
assaults, and 2.3 million simple assaults.13

Eight tips for managing eco-anxiety. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2220561-

stressed-about-climate-change-eight-tips-for-managing-eco-anxiety/

Sea Level Rise

Earth’s oceans are taking more than 90 per cent of the extra heat as a result of
enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations.14 As a result of this warming, the ocean
is expanding which is the primary driver of sea level rise. Global sea-level has risen
by over 20 cm since 1880, and the rate has been accelerating in recent decades. 15

Around 10 per cent of the world’s population live less than 10 meters above sea
level. This exposes hundreds of millions to the threat of sea-level rise, storm surges
and coastal flooding. Sea level rise could also lead to erosion of the coastlines, and
with it homes and cities, saltwater intrusion into freshwater wetlands, disrupting
ecosystems.

Ocean Acidification

The Ocean has absorbed approximately 30% of atmospheric CO2 from human
activities.16 With more CO2 dissolved, the oceans have become more acidic which is
likely to become increasingly harmful to marine life.

These changes have led to a reduction in coral calcification and growth rates on the
Great Barrier Reef, with implications for recovery from coral bleaching events. The
current rate of change is ten times faster than at any time in the past 300 million
years.17 This is highly likely to harm marine ecosystems from fisheries which provide
us food to coral reefs such as the Great Barrier Reef dissolving due to the acidity
leading to ripple effects up the food chain.

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Wildlife

Climate change is expected to have substantial impacts on the geographic ranges,

life cycles and increased extinction rates, with some changes already observable in
Victoria.18 Impacts on wildlife due to heat stress, drought and habitat changes, which
have flow-on effects down the food chain. Australia holds the first record of a
mammalian extinction due to climate change.

More frequent marine heatwaves, which impact marine ecosystems such as the
Great Barrier Reef. After the back-to-back marine heatwaves in 2016 and 2017, 50%
of the coral on the Great Barrier Reef died. Mass bleaching occurred again in 2020.
More: https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/climate-change-great-barrier-reef/

Figure 3. Source: IPCC, 2018: Global Warming of 1.5°C19

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Terminology (quoted from the IPCC 2018 Special Report on Warming of 1.5°C):

RFC1 Unique and threatened systems: ecological and human systems that have
restricted geographic ranges constrained by climate-related conditions and

have high endemism or other distinctive properties. Examples include coral reefs,
the Arctic and its indigenous people, mountain glaciers and biodiversity hotspots.

RFC2 Extreme weather events: risks/impacts to human health, livelihoods, assets

and ecosystems from extreme weather events such as heat waves, heavy rain,
drought and associated wildfires, and coastal flooding.

RFC3 Distribution of impacts: risks/impacts that disproportionately affect particular

groups due to uneven distribution of physical climate change hazards, exposure or
vulnerability.

RFC4 Global aggregate impacts: global monetary damage, global-scale

degradation and loss of ecosystems and biodiversity.

RFC5 Large-scale singular events: are relatively large, abrupt and sometimes
irreversible changes in systems that are caused by global warming. Examples
include disintegration of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

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Further resources

Causes and effects of climate change.

(https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/global-warming-
effects/)
Detailed information about climate change in Australia.
(https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/)

A thought-provoking animated short by Kurzgesagt, about who is responsible for

climate change, and who needs to fix it.
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipVxxxqwBQw)
• SciShow's video explaining how Earth's average temperature will increase by
more than two degrees Celsius this century.
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PERCDA7CQjY)
• Climate Change 101 with Bill Nye, presented by National Geographic.
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtW2rrLHs08)

How is climate change affecting Australia?

(https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/what-is-climate-change-what-can-we-
do/#unique-identifier-3)
Impact of climate change in the 'Australia's Black Summer,' and how it was reported
in the national newspapers.
(https://www.monash.edu/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/2121111/Black-Summer-
Australian-newspaper-reporting-of-the-nations-worst-bushfire-season.pdf)

Climate Action Tracker (CAT), an independent scientific analysis website that tracks
global climate actions. (https://climateactiontracker.org/)
The National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility.
(https://www.nccarf.edu.au/)
A short video by Thought Café, that explains the historical climate shift in Canada
and how to tackle it, through the lens of David Suzuki.
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNg7PFDlNQE)

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References

1
Bureau of Meteorology [BoM] (2020). Annual climate statement 2019.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/#tabs=Temperature;
IPCC (2018). Global Warming of 1.5 ºC. https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/
2
IPCC, 2018: Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special
Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and
related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening
the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and
efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts,
J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S.
Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M.
Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press.
3
IPCC (2018). Global Warming of 1.5°C.
4
BoM (2018). State of the Climate 2018, http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-
climate/australias-changing-climate.shtml
5
Stokes, C. J., & Howden, Mark. (2010). Adapting agriculture to climate change preparing
Australian agriculture, forestry and fisheries for the future. CSIRO Pub.
6
Hughes, L., & Steffen, W. (2013). CLIMATE CHANGE IN VICTORIA: TRENDS,
PREDICTIONS AND IMPACTS. Proceedings of the Royal Society of Victoria, 125(1),
5–13. doi: 10.1071/RS13003
7
Potgieter, A., Meinke, H., Doherty, A., Sadras, V.O., Hammer, G., Crimp, S. & Rodriguez,
D., 2013. Spatial impact of projected changes in rainfall and temperature on wheat
yields in Australia. Climatic Change 117: 163–179.
8
Hughes, L., & Steffen, W. (2013). CLIMATE CHANGE IN VICTORIA: TRENDS,
PREDICTIONS AND IMPACTS. Proceedings of the Royal Society of Victoria, 125(1),
5–13. doi: 10.1071/RS13003.

9
BoM (2019), State of the Climate 2018, viewed 25 May 2020, http://www.bom.gov.au/state-
of-the-climate/australias-changing-climate.shtml

10
PricewaterhouseCoopers Australia [PwC)] (2011). Protecting human health and safety
during severe and extreme heat events: A national framework,
https://www.pwc.com.au/industry/government/assets/extreme-heat-events-nov11.pdf

13
11
Howard, G., Calow, R., Macdonald, A., & Bartram, J. (2016). Climate Change and Water
and Sanitation: Likely Impacts and Emerging Trends for Action. Annual Review of
Environment and Resources, 41(1), 253–276. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-
environ-110615-085856
12
World Health Organisation (2018). Climate change and health. https://www.who.int/news-
room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health
13
Ranson, M. (2014). Crime, weather, and climate change. Journal of Environmental
Economics and Management, 67(3), 274–302. doi: 10.1016/j.jeem.2013.11.008
14
BoM 2018, State of the Climate (2018). http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-
climate/australias-changing-climate.shtml
15
BoM 2018, State of the Climate (2018). http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-
climate/australias-changing-climate.shtml
16
Hoegh-Guldberg, O., R. Cai, E.S. Poloczanska, P.G. Brewer, S. Sundby, K. Hilmi, V.J.
Fabry, and S. Jung, 2014: The Ocean. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts,
Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working
Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E.
Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N.
Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L.White (eds.)]. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1655-
1731.
17
BoM 2018, State of the Climate (2018). http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-
climate/australias-changing-climate.shtml
18
Hughes, L., & Steffen, W. (2013). CLIMATE CHANGE IN VICTORIA: TRENDS,
PREDICTIONS AND IMPACTS. Proceedings of the Royal Society of Victoria, 125(1),
5–13. doi: 10.1071/RS13003
19
IPCC (2018). Global Warming of 1.5°C.

14