11-09-2022

SERVICES OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT,

2022-2023

Waiting Line Models

Prof. Abhishek Srivastava

Indian Institute of Management

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Kashipur

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In front of the Employment Exchanges…

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Beverages Corporation outlets in Kerala

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdAtf
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Where the Time Goes Cultural Attitudes

In a life time, the average • “Americans hate to wait. So business is trying a trick or two to make
person will spend: lines seem shorter…” The New York Times, September 25, 1988
SIX MONTHS Waiting at stoplights • “An Englishman, even when he is by himself, will form an orderly
EIGHT MONTHS Opening junk mail queue of one…” George Mikes, “How to be an Alien”

ONE YEAR Looking for misplaced objects

• “In the Soviet Union, waiting lines were used as a rationing
device…” Hedrick Smith, “The Russians”
TWO YEARS Reading E-mail

FOUR YEARS Doing housework

FIVE YEARS Waiting in line

SIX YEARS Eating

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Waiting Realities

Inevitability of Waiting:
Waiting results from variations in arrival rates and service rates

Economics of Waiting:
High utilization purchased at the price of customer waiting. Make
waiting productive (salad bar) or profitable (drinking bar).

https://www.onmanorama.com/travel/travel-news/2020/02/24/duty-free-shops-international-airports-shopping-tips.html

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Laws of Service Remember Me

• Maister’s First Law:
Customers compare expectations with perceptions. • I am the person who goes into a restaurant, sits down, and patiently
waits while the wait-staff does everything but take my order.
• Skinner’s Law: • I am the person that waits in line for the clerk to finish chatting
The other line always moves faster. with his buddy.
• I am the one who never comes back and it amuses me to see
• Jenkin’s Corollary: money spent to get me back.
However, when you switch to another other line, the line you left • I was there in the first place, all you had to do was show me some
moves faster. courtesy and service.
• Maister’s Second Law:
Is hard to play catch-up ball. • The Customer

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Psychology of Waiting Approaches to Controlling Customer

Waiting
 That Old Empty Feeling:
Unoccupied time goes slowly
• Animate: Disneyland distractions, elevator mirror, recorded music
 A Foot in the Door:
Pre-service waits seem longer that in-service • Discriminate: Avis frequent renter treatment (out of sight)
waits

• Automate: Use computer scripts to address 75% of questions

 The Light at the End of the Tunnel:
Reduce anxiety with attention
• Obfuscate: Disneyland staged waits (e.g. House of Horrors)
 Excuse Me, But I Was First:
Social justice with FCFS queue discipline

 They Also Serve, Who Sit and Wait:

 Avoids idle service capacity

https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/512feaa4e4b095f36e706ae9/1432686894524-L5Y EPURJ79W0X1WJUAJL/image-asset.jpeg 12-14

Customer Population Characteristics

Essential Features of Queuing Systems

• Finite versus Infinite populations:
– Is the number of potential new customers materially affected by
the number of customers already in queue?
Renege

• Balking
Arrival Queue
process Departure – When an arriving customer chooses not to enter a queue because
Calling discipline
Queue Service it’s already too long.
population process
configuration
Balk
No future
• Reneging
need for – When a customer already in queue gives up and exits without
service being serviced.

• Jockeying
– When a customer switches between alternate queues in an effort
to reduce waiting time.
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Waiting Line Examples

Situation Arrivals Servers Service Process Cost Relationship in Waiting Line Analysis

Bank Customer Teller Deposit etc.

Total cost • Increasing service capacity

Expected costs
Doctor’s Patient Doctor Treatment typically results in lower
Service waiting costs and higher
office cost service costs.

• Optimal service capacity

Traffic Cars Light Controlled minimizes these service-
intersection passage versus-waiting costs.

Assembly line Parts Workers Assembly Waiting

Costs
Tool crib Workers Clerks Check out/in
tools Level of service

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Parts of a Waiting Line

Population of Arrivals Queue Service Exit the system
dirty cars from the (waiting line) facility
general
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZtbYzuUb population …
Dave’s
Car Wash
MQ
enter exit

Arrivals to the system In the system Exit the system

Arrival Characteristics Waiting Line Service Characteristics

 Size of the population Characteristics  Service design
 Behavior of arrivals  Limited vs. unlimited  Statistical distribution of
 Statistical distribution of  Queue discipline service
arrivals

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Queuing Models Calculate:

Characteristics of a Waiting Line System
Arrivals
• Population of customers
may be finite or infinite
• Pattern of arrivals may
be random
• Customers may or may
not be patient
• Average number of customers in the system waiting and being
served
• Average number of customers waiting in the line
Queue Servers • Average time a customer spends in the system waiting and being
served
• Average time a customer spends waiting in the waiting line or
queue.
• Probability no customers in the system
• Queue length may be • Probability n customers in the system
• Service time may be
limited
random
• Utilization rate: The proportion of time the system is in use.
• Customers are served
• There may be more
in an FIFO sequence
than one server
• There may be more
than one queues

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Distribution Of Arrivals
Elements Of Waiting Line Analysis
• Assumption: arrivals occur randomly and independently on
each other

• Poisson distribution provides a good description of the arrival

pattern: Source of
customers
e-x Arrivals Waiting Line Server Served
P(x) = x! for x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, … or queue customers

where P(x) = probability of x arrivals Queue

x = number of arrivals per unit of time
 = average arrival rate
e = natural logarithms (2.7183 ) System

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Essential Features of Queuing Systems

Essential Features of Queuing Systems (cont.)
Calling population
▫ Source of customers
▫ Infinite - large enough that one more customer can always arrive to be
served Queue discipline
▫ Finite - countable number of potential customers ▫ Order in which customers are served
▫ First come, first served is most common
Arrival rate (λ)
▫ Frequency of customer arrivals at waiting line system
▫ Typically follows Poisson distribution Length can be infinite or finite
▫ Infinite is most common
Service time ▫ Finite is limited by some physical
▫ Often follows negative exponential distribution
▫ Average service rate = μ
• Arrival rate (λ) must be less than service rate (μ) or system never
clears out

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Calling Population Queue Configuration

• Queue configuration refers to the number of queues, their locations, their spatial
• The calling population need not be requirements, and their effects on customer behavior
homogeneous;
• It may consist of several • Alternative waiting configurations for a service, such as a bank, a post office, or an
subpopulations airline counter

• For example, arrivals at an

outpatient clinic can be divided into
walk-in patients, patients with
appointments, and emergency
patients.

• Each class of patient will place

different demands on services, but
more important, the waiting
expectations of each will differ
significantly.

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Queue Configuration (ctd..)

Queue Configuration (ctd..) • For the multiple-queue alternative, the arriving customer must decide which queue to join.

• The decision need not be irrevocable, however, because one may switch to the end of
another line. This line-switching activity is called jockeying.

• In any event, watching the line next to you moving faster than your own is a source of
aggravation, but the multiple-queue configuration does have the following advantages:

1. The service provided can be differentiated. The use of express lanes in supermarkets is
an example. Shoppers with small demands on service can be isolated and processed
quickly, thereby avoiding long waits for little service.

2. Division of labor is possible. For example, drive-in banks assign the more experienced
teller to the commercial lane.

3. The customer has the option of selecting a particular server of preference.

4. Balking behavior may be deterred. When arriving customers see a long, single queue
snaked in front of a service, they often interpret this as evidence of a long wait and decide
not to join that line.

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Queue Configuration (ctd..) Queue Configuration (ctd..)

Advantages of single line queue Advantages of Take a number queue

• The arrangement guarantees fairness by ensuring that a first-come, first-served • No need for a formal line
rule (FCFS) applies to all arrivals.
• Customers are
• There is a single queue; thus, no anxiety is associated with waiting to see if one  free to wander about,
selected the fastest line.  strike up a conversation,
 relax in a chair, or
• With only one entrance at the rear of the queue, the problem of cutting-in is resolved  pursue some other diversion.
and reneging made difficult.
Risks
• Privacy is enhanced because the transaction is conducted with no one standing
• Customers must remain alert to hear their numbers being called or risk missing
immediately behind the person being served.
their turns for service
• The “virtual queue” is perhaps the most frustrating of all because there is no
• This arrangement is more efficient in terms of reducing the average time that visible indication of your position in line
customers spend waiting in line.

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Queue Discipline
• Policy established by management to select the next customer from the queue for
service
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXCiWMr
E8W4 • The most popular service discipline is the first-come, first-served (FCFS) rule

• The rule is considered to be static because no information other than position in

line is used to identify the next customer for service.

• Dynamic queue disciplines are based on some attribute of the customer or

status of the waiting line.

• This shortest-processing-time (SPT) rule has the property of minimizing the

average time that customers spend in the system (i.e., both waiting and being
served).

• This rule usually is reserved for emergency services, such as fire or ambulance
service.

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Queue Discipline (ctd..)

Basic Waiting Line Structures
Creative dynamic queue disciplines take advantage of the status of the queue.

Consider the concept of round-robin service as used by a dentist with multiple • Channels are the number of parallel servers
examination rooms. ▫ Single channel
 For example, a patient is given a local anesthetic before a tooth extraction. While the ▫ Multiple channels
anesthetic takes effect, the dentist moves onto another patient who requires x-rays. Thus,
customers share the service provider by alternating between waiting and being served. • Phases denote number of sequential servers the customer
must go through
▫ Single phase
▫ Multiple phases

• Steady state
▫ A constant, average value for performance characteristics that
system will reach after a long time

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Single-Channel Structures

Single-channel, single-phase
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yo7LG_JeJ
os
Waiting line Server

Single-channel, multiple phases

Waiting line Servers

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Multi-Channel Structures Queuing System Operating

Multiple-channel, single phase
Characteristics

P0 = probability the service facility is idle

Pn = probability of n units in the system
Waiting line
Pw = probability an arriving unit must wait for service
Lq = average number of units in the queue awaiting
Servers
service
Multiple-channel, multiple-phase
L = average number of units in the system
Wq = average time a unit spends in the queue
awaiting service
W = average time a unit spends in the system
Waiting line

Servers

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Queuing Systems Analytical Formulas

• A three part code of the form A/B/k is used to describe various
queuing systems.
• When the queue discipline is FCFS, analytical formulas have been
derived for several different queuing models including the following:
• A identifies the arrival distribution, B the service (departure) – M/M/1
distribution and k the number of channels for the system.
– M/M/k
– M/G/1
• Symbols used for the arrival and service processes are: M - Markov
distributions (Poisson/exponential), D - Deterministic (constant) – M/G/k with blocked customers cleared
and G - General distribution (with a known mean and variance). – M/M/1 with a finite calling population

• For example, M/M/k refers to a system in which arrivals occur

according to a Poisson distribution, service times follow an
exponential distribution and there are k servers working at identical
service rates.

Queuing Models Queuing Models

Model Name Example Model Name Example

A Single-channel Information counter B Multichannel Airline ticket
system at department store (M/M/k) counter
(M/M/1)

Number Number Arrival Service Number Number Arrival Service

of of Rate Time Population Queue of of Rate Time Population Queue
Channels Phases Pattern Pattern Size Discipline Channels Phases Pattern Pattern Size Discipline
Single Single Poisson Exponential Unlimited FIFO Multi- Single Poisson Exponential Unlimited FIFO
channel

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Queuing Models Queuing Models

Model Name Example Model Name Example

C Constant- Automated car D Limited Shop with only a
service wash population dozen machines
(M/G/1) (finite population) that might break

Number Number Arrival Service Number Number Arrival Service

of of Rate Time Population Queue of of Rate Time Population Queue
Channels Phases Pattern Pattern Size Discipline Channels Phases Pattern Pattern Size Discipline
Single Single Poisson Constant Unlimited FIFO Single Single Poisson Exponential Limited FIFO

Model A – Single-Channel Model A – Single-Channel

1. Arrivals are served on a FIFO basis and every arrival waits
to be served regardless of the length of the queue
2. Arrivals are independent of preceding arrivals but the
average number of arrivals does not change over time
3. Arrivals are described by a Poisson probability distribution
and come from an infinite population
4. Service times vary from one customer to the next and
are independent of one another, but their average
rate is known
5. Service times occur according to the negative
exponential distribution
6. The service rate is faster than the arrival rate

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Waiting Line Performance

Single Channel – Single Phase System Measures

Queue
Arrivals Served units Lq = The average number of customers waiting in queue
L = The average number of customers in the system
Wq = The average waiting time in queue
Assumptions
W = The average time in the system
p = The system utilization rate (% of time servers are busy)
• Arrivals have a Poisson distribution
• Service times have an exponential distribution
This system is called an M/M/1 Queuing System.

Single-Server Case M/M/1 Queuing System

• Single channel
• Poisson arrival-rate distribution
  lambda  mean arrival rate • Exponential service-time distribution
  mu  mean service rate • Unlimited maximum queue length
 • Infinite calling population
p   average system utilizatio n
 • Examples:
– Single-window theatre ticket sales booth
Note :    for system stability. If this is not the case,
– Single-scanner airport security station
an infinitly long line will eventually form.

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Formulas: Single-Server State University Computer Lab

 • A help desk in the computer lab serves students on a first-come,

L  average number of customers in system first served basis. On average, 15 students need help every hour.
  The help desk can serve an average of 20 students per hour.
Lq  pL  average number of customers in line • Based on this description, we know:
– µ = 20 students/hour (average service time is 3 minutes)
 average time in system including service 
1
W –  = 15 students/hour (average time between student arrivals is
  4 minutes)
Wq  pW  average time spent waiting
Pn  1  p  p n  probabilit y of n customers in the system
at a given point in time

Average Utilization Average Number of Students

in the System, and in Line

 15
 15 L   3 students
p   0.75 or 75%    20  15
 20

Lq  pL  0.753  2.25 students

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Average Time in the System & in Line Probability of n

Students in the Line

1 1
W   0.2 hours P0  1  p  p 0  1  0.751  0.25
  20  15
or 12 minutes P1  1  p  p1  1  0.750.75  0.188
P2  1  p  p 2  1  0.750.752  0.141
Wq  pW  0.750.2  0.15 hours P3  1  p  p 3  1  0.750.753  0.105
or 9 minutes P4  1  p  p 4  1  0.750.754  0.079

Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)

Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)
• Arrival Rate Distribution
• M/M/1 Queuing System

Joe Ferris is a stock trader on the floor of the New York

Stock Exchange for the firm of Smith, Jones, Johnson, and
Thomas, Inc. Stock transactions arrive at a mean rate of 20 per
hour. Each order received by Joe requires an average of two
minutes to process.

Orders arrive at a mean rate of 20 per hour or one order

every 3 minutes. Therefore, in a 15 minute interval the average
number of orders arriving will be = 15/3 = 5.

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Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)

Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)
• Arrival Rate Distribution
Arrival Rate Distribution
Question
What is the probability that exactly 3 orders are
received within a 15-minute period?
Answer
P (x = 3) = (53e -5)/3! = 125(.0067)/6 = .1396

Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)

Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)
• Service Rate Distribution

Question
• Service Time Distribution
What is the mean service rate per hour?
Question
What percentage of the orders will take less than one minute
Answer
to process?
Since Joe Ferris can process an order in an average time of 2
minutes (= 2/60 hr.), then the mean service rate, µ, is µ = 1/(mean
service time), or 60/2. Answer
Since the units are expressed in hours,
m = 30/hr. P (T < 1 minute) = P (T < 1/60 hour).
Using the exponential distribution, P (T < t ) = 1 - e-µt.
Hence, P (T < 1/60) = 1 - e-30(1/60)
= 1 - .6065 = .3935 = 39.35%

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Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)

Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)
• Service Time Distribution Average Time in the System
Question Question
What percentage of the orders will require more than 3 What is the average time an order must wait from the time
minutes to process? Joe receives the order until it is finished being processed (i.e. its
turnaround time)?
Answer
Answer
The percentage of orders requiring more than 3 minutes to
process is: This is an M/M/1 queue with λ = 20 per hour and µ = 30 per
hour. The average time an order waits in the system is:
P (T > 3/60) = e-30(3/60) = e -1.5 = .2231 = 22.31%
W = 1/(µ - λ )
= 1/(30 - 20)
= 1/10 hour or 6 minutes

Example: SJJT, Inc. (A) Example: SJJT, Inc. (A)

• Average Length of Queue

Utilization Factor

Question
What is the average number of orders Joe has waiting to be
processed?

Answer
Average number of orders waiting in the queue is:
Lq = λ2/[µ(µ - λ)]
= (20)2/[(30)(30-20)]
= 400/300

= 4/3

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