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Preliminary market analysis of PEEK in South America: opportunities and


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Article  in  E-Polymers · May 2019


DOI: 10.1515/epoly-2019-0035

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Research Article

Kazumasa Nomura* and Paul Terwilliger


e-Polymers 2019; 19: 341–348

Self-dual Leonard pairs


Research Article Open Access
https://doi.org/10.1515/spma-2019-0001
Received May 8, 2018; accepted September 22, 2018
Victor de Cerjat Beltrão, Marco Antonio Gaya de Figueiredo and Harrison Lourenço Corrêa*

Preliminary market
a pairanalysis of PEEK inonSouth
Abstract: Let F denote a field and let V denote a vector space over F with finite positiv
A, A of diagonalizable F-linear maps ∗
V, each of which acts on an eigenbasis

America: opportunities and challenges


irreducible tridiagonal fashion. Such a pair is called a Leonard pair. We consider the s
there exists an automorphism of the endomorphism algebra of V that swaps A and A . S ∗

is unique, and called the duality A ↔ A∗ . In the present paper we give a comprehen
https://doi.org/10.1515/epoly-2019-0035 implementation?
duality. In particular, we display anIn the current
invertible contextmap
F-linear of high rates
T on of fastthat the map X
V such
Received November 27, 2018; accepted February 06, 2019. information exchange, what people∗ usually forget is that
A ↔ A . We express T as a polynomial in A and A . We describe how T acts on 4 flag

Abstract: The increasing applicationsand bases for V.the product or service requires a careful planning in all its
of 24poly-ether-
features as well as characteristics related to the company.
ether-ketone (PEEK) in the industry makes this polymer
Keywords: LeonardInpair, tridiagonal
addition, a highmatrix,
money self-dual
investment is frequently
appealing for the development of a new industry focused
needed; however, the amount is not easily achieved by
on its production. PEEK displays remarkable mechani-17B37, 15A21
Classification: the associates responsible for the enterprise. Therefore,
cal properties that are not commonly found in polymeric
the required conditions for the accomplishment of the
materials, and its biocompatibility becomes attractive
company’s project must be thoroughly examined through
for the manufacture of prosthesis, stents and many other
1 Introduction
medical apparatuses. In addition, the new technique
a feasibility analysis.
The creation of any type of enterprise must first
of Additive Manufacturing (AM) enables the printing of
pass through a previous market validation. Buarque (1)
highly complex geometries with low weight, Let F aiming
denotethe a field and letthat
V denote a vector space over F with finite positive dim
observed the determination of the society’s necessity
automotive and aeronautic industries aspair well.A,Despite not
A of diagonalizable to a maps on V, each of which acts on an eigenbasis

F-linear
level in relation given service or product is extremely
being relatively new, there are not many enterprises pro-
irreducible tridiagonal fashion. Such a pair is called a Leonard
important, as it dictates the feasibility of the development pair (see [13, Definition
ducing PEEK in the world, especially in the South Ameri-
A, A is said to be of

self-dual whenever
the project. Thus, there existsresearch
the market an automorphism
is the starting of the endomorp
can market. This raises a question regarding the size of the∗
swaps A and A . Inpoint this for
case
thesuch an automorphism
enterprise project. is unique, and called the duality
PEEK market in this region and the expected demand for
The One of the major objectives of the market research is
the upcoming years. Therefore, this paper aims toliterature
analyze contains many examples of self-dual Leonard pairs. For instance (i) t
ated with an and the characterization
irreducible module for theofTerwilliger
the productalgebra
that willofbe
thesold, in a
hypercube (see [4, Co
and predict the demand of PEEK for the Mercosur
way that guarantees it will meet the market expectation.
Brazil markets, verifying the feasibility of Leonard pair ofofKrawtchouk type (see [10, Definition 6.1]); (iii) the Leonard pair associa
the creation
Understanding primarily the nature of the product and
a specialized industry in the region. module for the Terwilliger algebra of a distance-regular graph that has a spin model in
the type of segment it attends is crucial. Through this
bra (see [1, Theorem], [3, Theorems 4.1, 5.5]); (iv) an appropriately normalized totally
characterization, the expected real price of the product
Keywords: evaluation; market; polymers(see [11, Lemma 14.8]); (v) the Leonard pair consisting of any two of a modular Leonar
can be investigated and future demands of the market
Definition 1.4]); (vi) canthe
beLeonard
predicted.pair consisting
Based on that, of theaamount
pair of of
opposite
sales and generators for t
bra, acting on an evaluation module (see [5, Proposition 9.2]). The example (i) is a spec
1 Introduction future revenue
examples (iii), (iv) are PEEK
can be estimated
special(poly-ether-ether-ketone)
cases of (v).
(2).
is a thermoplastic
Let A, A∗ denote semia Leonard pair
crystalline on V. We can
homopolymer determine
that belongs to whether
the poly- A, A∗ is self-dua
Nowadays, when an idea is created towards the
By [13, Lemma aryl-ether-ketones (PAEK) ∗family. This family has the d
development of a new enterprise, entrepreneurs usually1.3] each eigenspace of A, A has dimension one. Let { θ i }i=0 denote an
values of A. For ketones and ethers functional groups linked together d
do not ask themselves about the most important aspect of 0 ≤ i ≤ d let v i denote a θ i -eigenvector for A. The ordering { θ i }i=0
through aromaticdgroups. Besides PEEK, modification in
any successful business: is there enoughwhenever feasibility Afor acts
its on the basis { v i }i=0 in an irreducible tridiagonal fashion. If the orde

the bonding of the monomers from this family may create
then the ordering {θ d−i }di=0 is also standard, and no further ordering is standard. Sim
other polymers, such as poly-ether-ketone (PEK) and
* Corresponding author: Harrison Lourenço Corrêa, Let {θ i }di=0 denote a standard ordering of the eigenvalues of A. Then A, A∗ is self-du
A∗ .Universidade
poly-ether-ketone-ketone (PEKK) (3). PEEK is currently
Federal do Paraná, Setor de Tecnologia, Departamento de
is a standard ordering of the eigenvalues of A (see [7, Proposition
due to8.7]).

Engenharia Mecânica, Curitiba, PR, Brazil; UFRuralRJ, Departamento considered a high-performance polymer its
de Engenharia de Materiais, Seropédica, RJ, Brazil, email: harry.lou. optimized properties compared to other polymers, which
correa@gmail.com. makes it fit to high-demand applications.
Victor de Cerjat Beltrão, Laboratório de Materiais Poliméricos, Among these properties, the most recurrent is the
Setor de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia *Corresponding
Mecânica, Author: Kazumasa
polymer Nomura: Tokyo
biocompatibility, whichMedical
makes and Dental
PEEK University, Ichikawa, 272-0
extensively
Universidade Federal do Paraná, 81530-000 Curitiba, PR,knomura@pop11.odn.ne.jp
E-mail: Brazil.
Marco Antonio Gaya de Figueiredo, Laboratório Paul
de Engenharia used in the health industry, especially in the carbon fiber
Terwilliger: Department of Mathematics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI53706, USA, E-m
e Tecnologia de Petróleo e Petroquímica, Instituto de Química, composite form. This composite possesses high mechanical
terwilli@math.wisc.edu
Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil. properties, high resistance in hostile environments like

Open Access. © 2019 Beltrão et al., published byOpen


De Gruyter.
Access. ©This work
2019 is licensed
Kazumasa under
Nomura andthe Creative
Paul Commons
Terwilliger, published by De Gruyter. This work is lic
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342   V.C. Beltrão et al.: Preliminary market analysis of PEEK in South America: opportunities and challenges

the human body, and good fatigue resistance. Therefore, for knee arthroplasty (TKA) are well known, particularly for
it may display high acceptance in orthopedics, mainly their good biocompatibility, the corrosion of the implant
as an intervertebral cage in column surgeries. It can also components and metal could be a trouble (14). In addition,
be found mixed with other composites, used in cranial PEEK is gaining higher acceptation in odontology, where
prosthesis, dental prosthesis substitutes, autoclavable it can be found as a substitute of titanium for dental
cases and even stents for blood vessel substitution (4). prosthesis. This is due to its controllable aesthetically
PEEK is majorly synthetized via nucleophilic route, colors and less allergenic potential (15). With aid of
which has had greater commercial success throughout additive manufacturing, the products created with PEEK
the years (5). This method of polymerization utilizes a can achieve much higher geometric complexity, making
highly electronegative group to remove protons from the it an alternative for customizable complex parts, such as
edge of aromatic chains of a nucleophilic compound, specific cranial prosthesis (16). For industrial processing
normally a bisphenol, like hydroquinone. Following, units, PEEK has an advantage compared to other polymers:
the bonds become active and react with alkaline metals he can be soluble in common solvents (17), which could
present in 4,4’ difluorobenzophenone and a carbonate help in the cleaning process of machines.
to produce the final polymer through polycondensation As PEEK displays a large number of applications and
(6). It is recommended to use a blend of sodium and the innovation the AM presents, we hypothesized that
potassium carbonate to achieve good final performance the market of prosthesis produced by this technique is
of the polymer (7). To obtain PEEK with high molecular growing. The South American market, particularly, may
weight, it is necessary the utilization of a solvent that can be a target, since there is no industry producing PEEK in
overcome the problem of fast crystallization common in this region and the demand is potentially high. Therefore,
the polycondensation of this polymer, which limits this this study aims to analyze and estimate the PEEK demand
property (8). Diphenylsulfone is employed for that matter, as an input for the manufacture of prosthesis, verifying
close to the PEEK’s melt temperature, achieving high the feasibility of an industry in the Brazilian and Mercosur
physical properties. (Common Market Group of South America) markets.
Several processing methods of this polymer have
already been studied, and, recently, researchers have
focused their efforts in additive manufacturing techniques
(AM). This technique enables the manufacturing of
2 Materials and methods
high geometrical complexity prosthesis and anatomical
models with greater simplicity and velocity, which is 2.1 Demand
not possible with the usual processing technologies (9).
Furthermore, the prosthesis and anatomical models parts The first step in the market analysis is the projection
can be printed directly in the hospital centers, optimizing of the demand. Demand is the data calculated based
the logistics and allowing a faster treatment of the patient. on the client’s perception. It indicates the amount of a
PEEK has commercial applications in many industrial given product that the market wants, in product units or
areas. For example, it can be highlighted its use in aircraft monetary units. A method for determining the apparent
components. In this industry, they can be found in a broad value of the demand is presented in Eq. 1, explained by
range of applications, like turbine, aircraft fuselage and Hirschfeld (18):
aircraft seats (10). Also, since 1990 ̓s this polymer is tested
in clinical studies and it shows high potential to replace Demand = Imports + Production − Exports  (1)
some metal implant components (11), having thermal
stability at high temperature. This synthetic material has The Brazilian import and export relevant data for
excelled in medical applications due to its durability, international products can be easily accessed through the
stiffness and elasticity similar to human bones (12). Other platform “Aliceweb”, provided by the Brazilian Minister of
requirements can also be noted by this polymer in clinical Industry, Foreign Trade and Services (MDIC, Ministério da
using: fast recovery of patients, accuracy, efficiency, Indústria, Comércio Exterior e Serviços). By signing up,
easy implementation in surgery, flexibility and increased the values for import and export are disposed by product,
success rate of operation (13). There are high expectations period, company in charge, and State or City. The products
about PEEK application for construction of femoral in the database bank are registered using the Mercosur
components. One of these is the decreased risk related to Common Nomenclature (NCM, Nomenclatura Comum do
metal-sensitivity reactions. Although the materials used Mercosul, in Portuguese), a catalog used to facilitate the

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taxation and exemption of taxes between countries that an excellent tool for the research of data related to foreign
belong to the Mercosur. Since there is no NCM dedicated commerce. Information about import and export of almost
exclusively to PEEK, we chose the NCM 39119024 related to every recognized country in the world are available on
Polyetherimide (PEI), a polymer that has both properties the website. The products are registered through the
and the market fairly similar to those of PEEK. PEI is also Harmonized System (HS), a number with up to 8 digits,
manufactured as a 3D filament, under the name ULTEM®, from which the NCM derives.
by the company Stratasys.
After obtaining the values for the demand,
algebraic methods can be applied to estimate the future 3 Results and discussions
demand of the product. This was achieved using a
special tool present in the program Excel 2016 version, The values for export and import of raw PEI are presented
which enables the creation of a forecast spreadsheet in Figure 1. They are disposed in units of tones of the
automatically using the method of exponential polymer and Free on Board (FOB) million dollars. FOB
smoothing. This method is a temporal technique based indicates the absence of insurance and import taxes in the
on historical data and its explanation can be found final value.
elsewhere (19). The historical data found for the demand We noted a growth in the export of PEI in the last
is inserted in chronological order and the smoothing four years, and a decrease in its import, particularly
factor is calculated internally with an optimization tool. during the last year we evaluated. This performance may
The confidence interval was 95%. be explained by the recession moment that the Brazilian
Considering the product we explored has relatively macroeconomy had passed in this period; however, these
poor prevalence in the Brazilian market, we opted to use values cannot be discarded. The quantity produced has a
neighboring markets, more precisely the commercial stable and direct relation with the exported and imported
alliance of the Mercosur. This group is composed of Brazil, monetary value, which exposes a stabilization of the price
Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina and its objective is to of PEI over the following years.
facilitate commercial operations between those countries The trade balance Evolution of PEI for the Mercosur
and the block as a whole with commercial partners around Market is presented in Figure 2. Inside Mercosur, Brazil
the world. Import and export data of PEI for Mercosur is the major importer country, resulting in the strongest
were found in the database “Trade Map”, granted by the influence on the groups’ behavior curve. However,
International Trade Centre (ITC). This platform consists of Uruguay also exhibits a growth tendency, different from

$1,000 90
Thousands

Thousands

$900 80
$800 70
$700
60
$600
50
$500
40
$400
30
$300
$200 20

$100 10

$0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Exports (kg) Imports (kg) Exports US$ FOB Imports US$ FOB

Figure 1: Trade balance of PEI for the Brazilian market.

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344   V.C. Beltrão et al.: Preliminary market analysis of PEEK in South America: opportunities and challenges

Argen�na Uruguai Paraguai Brasil

$1,200,000

$1,000,000

$800,000

$600,000

$400,000

$200,000

$0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Figure 2: Trade balance of PEI for the Mercosur market.

Historical demand Future demand

$2,000,000

$1,500,000

$1,000,000
896136.2949

$500,000

$0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Figure 3: Prediction of future demands of PEI for Mercosur.

the other countries, replacing Brazil in 2016. Argentina’s Besides, there are outside factors that can interfere in the
market shows a decrease on the demand, while Paraguay market expectations, like economic recession, feedstock
displays a low amount of demand. availability, presence of new technologies and others.
Using the values of import and export obtained However, it already shows a decrease prospect in PEI
earlier, we performed the prediction of future demands for demand for the Mercosur countries.
the Mercosur. The results are exposed in Figure 3. Regarding data collection for the PEEK market,
The analysis of the chart exposed a tendency of major companies holding the biggest polymer production
decrease in the demand for the period between 2018 and values, in a worldwide level, include: Solvay Especialty
January 2020. If we do not include the production of PEI, Polymers, Ensinger, Victrex, Evonik, Quadrant, and
this scenario, cannot be considered completely valid in SABIC. All of these companies have export data contained
comparison with the real situation. These production in the Trade Map platform; however these values are
values are not available to the public in databases, scattered in multiple HS numbers, which makes it difficult
specialized magazines or even plastic industry yearbooks. to quantify the exact value related to PEEK. This is due to

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India China Germany Spain Italy Belgium France

$70,000.00

$60,000.00

$50,000.00

$40,000.00

$30,000.00

$20,000.00

$10,000.00

$0.00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-$10,000.00

Figure 4: Commercial trade of PEEK to the Mercosur.

the fact that there are many categories of polymers inside total amount of export calculated in comparison with the
each HS number. possible real data. Therefore, the final result can be seen
To obtain a more relevant and direct information, our as a pessimistic view of the raw PEEK market.
research focused only on one specific HS number, 391690. The prediction of future demands of PEEK to the
Many ramifications can be found within this number, one Mercosur countries is displayed in Figure 5. The values for
of which is the category of bars and pellets of PEEK. We demands according to weight were calculated using the
calculated the amount of companies inside the HS number historical price of $99.20 per kg (http://www.plasticsnews.
and then we found an estimated ratio (0.45% to 2.18%). com/resin/high-temperature-thermoplastics/historical-
This estimate is very important, as the companies inserted pricing?grade=1330601%7CVol2). Even though the
in the HS repeat throughout the different categories, which polymer has a growth perspective in the period analyzed,
indicates that the number of companies in a category the apparent demand value close to 2 tones is probably
automatically relates to the number of exportations of not enough to justify the production of raw PEEK to supply
the product. Still, it is not possible to attribute certainty Mercosur. Because PEEK is a product with a high expected
to the data, since each export has a different quantity of price, the plant industry must have a low production to
product in a load, resulting in a different value. Therefore, keep up with the small demand.
the amount of PEEK export was based in the total export The evaluation of import, export and production data
calculated through this method. of orthopedic prosthesis in Brazil is shown in Figure 6.
The major exporting countries, based on the amount We noted the existence of a much higher value of import
exported, were Germany, China, India, Italy, Belgium and compared to the export for these products. This behavior
France. The evolution of the commercial trade between can suggest a possible repressed demand related to the
these countries and the Mercosur is shown in Figure 4. current Brazilian industry. When we examined the values
We can highlight China, Germany and India as possible of production, we noted a growth in this factor, which
emerging producers of the polymers. Additionally, it is indicates that the industrial sector is expanding to keep up
important to notice that the two biggest markets of PEEK with the increasing demand in the country. Particularly, it
producers, USA and United Kingdom, where the big is interesting to analyze the behavior of the curve in the
companies Victrex and Solvay have their head offices, do period between 2014 and 2015, in which there has been
not input their data in the Trade Map. This can reduce the a vertiginous increase in production, a large drop in

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346   V.C. Beltrão et al.: Preliminary market analysis of PEEK in South America: opportunities and challenges

Figure 5: Future demand prediction of PEEK for Mercosur.

$400
US$375
$350
$300
$250
Millions

$200
$150
$100 US$113

$50
US$29
$0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Export US$ FOB Import US$ FOB Production US$

Figure 6: Commercial trade of orthopedic prosthesis in Brazil.

import, and stability in export. Within this scenario, we prosthesis will be manufactured via 3D printing, we
suppose the Brazilian market is absorbing the industrial calculated a value of approximately R$ 216,212,000,00
production, but there is not enough amount of orthopedic for the demand. This would be the possible final size
prosthesis to create a high export in this moment. of the Brazilian market of additive manufactured
Figure 7 shows the predictions for the apparent future prosthesis and medical implants. Adding to this it is
demand of orthopedic prosthesis in Brazil. important to notice that the number of scientific articles
Future demands have a clear growth perspective. published in the past decade related to PEEK polymer.
Such demands show a positive tendency and the data The Brazilian database CAPES was used for the purpose
spreadsheet estimates a value of R$ 720 million in 2020. (21). Researchers are developing more interest in PEEK,
Using the estimate created by the Gardner Company with possible benefits for the industry regarding the
(20), which indicates that by 2020 almost 30% of all development of new technologies and increasing

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Historical demand Future demand

$800
US$721
$700
$600
Millions

$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Figure 7: Future demand predictions of orthopedic prosthesis in Brazil (confident limits of 95%).

applications. The number of articles more than doubled Assessoria de Publicação Acadêmica, CAPA – www.capa.
since 2008. This scenario indicates that PEEK popularity ufpr.br) of the Federal University of Paraná for assistance
shows a remarkable growth and that its market will with English language editing.
probably greater expansion in the future.

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