Date Passengers FORECATING

Jan-15 3,204,637
Feb-15 2,966,477
Mar-15 3,593,364
Apr-15 3,604,104
May-15 3,933,016
Jun-15 4,146,797
Jul-15 4,176,486
Aug-15 4,347,059
Sep-15 3,781,168
Oct-15 3,872,278
Nov-15 3,902,278
Dec-15 4,302,278
Jan-16 2,644,539
Feb-16 2,359,800
Mar-16 2,925,918
Apr-16 3,024,973
May-16 3,177,100
Jun-16 3,419,595
Jul-16 3,649,702
Aug-16 3,650,668
Sep-16 3,191,526
Oct-16 3,249,428
Nov-16 2,971,484
Dec-16 3,074,209
Jan-17 2,785,466
Feb-17 2,515,361
Mar-17 3,105,958
Apr-17 3,139,059
May-17 3,380,355
Jun-17 3,612,886
Jul-17 3,765,824
Aug-17 3,771,842
Sep-17 3,356,365
Oct-17 3,490,100
Nov-17 3,163,659
Dec-17 3,167,124
Jan-18 2,883,810
Feb-18 2,610,667
Mar-18 3,129,205
Apr-18 3,200,527
May-18 3,547,804
Jun-18 3,766,323
 Jul-18 3,935,589
Aug-18 3,917,884
Sep-18 3,564,970
Oct-18 3,602,455
Nov-18 3,326,859
Dec-18 3,441,693
Jan-19 3,211,600
Feb-19 2,998,119
Mar-19 3,472,440
Apr-19 3,563,007
May-19 3,820,570
Jun-19
For the data in the airport passengers do the following
a) develop a speadsheet for forecasting the
number of airport passengers using a
simple three-period moving average.
b) Compute MAD MSE and MAPE error Measures
Closing Stock Prices
DJ Industrials
Date IBM INTC CSCO GE Index
03/09/2010 $127.58 $18.43 $21.04 $15.39 10447.93
07/09/2010 $125.95 $18.12 $20.58 $15.44 10340.69
08/09/2010 $126.08 $17.90 $20.64 $15.70 10387.01
09/09/2010 $126.36 $18.00 $20.61 $15.91 10415.24
10/09/2010 $127.99 $17.97 $20.62 $15.98 10462.77
13-09-2010 $129.61 $18.56 $21.26 $16.25 10544.13
14-09-2010 $128.85 $18.74 $21.45 $16.16 10526.49
15-09-2010 $129.43 $18.72 $21.59 $16.34 10572.73
16-09-2010 $129.67 $18.97 $21.93 $16.23 10594.83
17-09-2010 $130.19 $18.81 $21.86 $16.29 10607.85
20-09-2010 $131.79 $18.93 $21.75 $16.55 10753.62
21-09-2010 $131.98 $19.14 $21.64 $16.52 10761.03
22-09-2010 $132.57 $19.01 $21.67 $16.50 10739.31
23-09-2010 $131.67 $18.98 $21.53 $16.14 10662.42
24-09-2010 $134.11 $19.42 $22.09 $16.66 10860.26
27-09-2010 $134.65 $19.24 $22.11 $16.43 10812.04
28-09-2010 $134.89 $19.51 $21.86 $16.44 10858.14
29-09-2010 $135.48 $19.24 $21.87 $16.36 10835.28
30-09-2010 $134.14 $19.20 $21.90 $16.25 10788.05
01/10/2010 $135.64 $19.32 $21.91 $16.36 10829.68
 For each of the time series in the sheet,
construct the line chart of the data and identify
the characteristics of time series.
(i.e random, stationery(noise), trend, seasonal or
cyclical)
tual and forecast demand and Compute MAD,MSE, RMSE, MAPE
A-F
Month Actual Demand (Y) Forecasted Demand (F)
1 3216483 3928410
2 3453239 3810280
3 5431651 3783643
4 4241851 3970688
5 3909887 4066369
6 3216438 4012413
7 4222005 3962370
8 3621034 3946629
9 5162201 3940490
10 4627177 4052117
11 4623945 4130275
12 4599368 4204882

MAD
MSE
RMSE
MAPE
 k=2 MAD MSE RMSE MAPE
Week Unit Sold Forecast Error Absolute Deviation Squared Error Absloute % Error
1 88
2 44
3 60
4 56
5 70
6 91
7 54
8 60
9 48
10 35
11 49
12 44
13 61
14 68
15 82
16 71
17 50
18

n
 At  Ft
MAD  t 1 9.2 
n
n
  At  Ft 2
MSE  t 1 9.3
n
n 2
  At  Ft 
RMSE  t 1
9.4 
n
n At  Ft

t 1 At
MAPE  100 9.5 
 n At  Ft

t 1 At
MAPE  100 9.5 
n
9.4 

9.5 
9.5 
 Ft+1 = αYt + (1 - α) Ft

Forecast at time t+1 is Ft+1 = αYt + (1 - α) Ft; use α as 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and estimate MAE, RM

Forecasted Demand
Month Actual Demand (Y) 0.2 MAD RMSE
1 50147
2 49325
3 57048
4 76781
5 48617
6 50898
7 58517
8 77691
9 50862
10 53028
11 58849
12 79660
13 51640
14 54119
15 65681
16 85175
17 56405
18 60031

MAD
MSE
RMSE
MAPE
0.4 and estimate MAE, RMSE, MAPE DAMPING FACTOR = 1-ALPHA

MAPE 0.3 MAD RMSE MAPE 0.4 MAD RMSE MAPE