ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善

Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

LESSON 1 Uncertainties in Engineering

Reading
Read the following textbook passage about the uncertainties in engineering. Then
answer the comprehension questions below.

Introduction

● Uncertainties are unavoidable.

● The sources of uncertainty may be classified into two broad types:
1. Aleatory – those that are associated with natural randomness
2. Epistemic – those that are associated with inaccuracies in our prediction and
estimation of reality epistemic type
● The quantification of uncertainty and the evaluation of its effects on the
performance and design of the system should properly include the concepts and
methods of probability and statistics. The significance of the concepts of
probability and statistics in engineering parallels those of the principles of
physics, chemistry, and mechanics in engineering problems.

Uncertainty in Engineering
● Available data are often incomplete or insufficient and invariably contain
variability. Predictions or estimations based on idealized models with unknown
degrees of imperfections relative to reality involve additional uncertainty. In
practice, we might identify two broad types of uncertainty:
1. Uncertainty associated with the randomness of the underlying phenomenon
that is exhibited as variability in the observed information.
2. Uncertainty associated with imperfect models of the real world because of
insufficient or imperfect knowledge of reality.
● The aleatory (databased) uncertainty is associated with the inherent variability of
basic information, which is part of the real world (within our ability to observe
and describe).
● The epistemic (or knowledge-based) uncertainty is associated with imperfect
knowledge of the real world, and may be reduced through application of better
prediction models and/or improved experiments.
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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

● In many application areas of engineering and the physical sciences, the

uncertainty of a calculated risk or probability is as important as the risk itself.
● The National Research Council (1994) has emphasized the importance of
quantifying the uncertainty in the calculated risk, and a number of U.S.
government agencies, such as the U.S. Department of Energy (1996), the
Environmental Protection Agency (1997), NASA (2002), NIH (1994), as well as in
the UK (2000), have applied this approach in the quantitative assessment of risk.

Uncertainty Associated with Randomness — the Aleatory Uncertainty

● The expected outcomes are unpredictable (to some degree).
● Such phenomena are characterized by field or experimental data that contain
significant variability that represents the natural randomness of an underlying
phenomenon; i.e., the observed measurements are different from one
experiment to another, even if conducted or measured under apparently
identical conditions.
● The variability inherent in such data or information is statistical in nature, and
the realization of a specific value (or range of values) involves probability.
● The inherent variability in the observed or measured data can be portrayed
graphically in the form of a histogram or frequency diagram.
● If two variables are involved, the joint variability may similarly be portrayed in a
scattergram.
● A histogram simply shows the relative frequencies of the different observed
values of a single variable.
● For example, consider the 29 years of annual cumulative rainfall intensity in a
watershed area recorded over a period of 29 years as presented in Table 1.1.

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

● Therefore, choosing a uniform interval of 4 in. between 38 and 70 in. the number
of observations within each interval and the corresponding fraction of the total
observations are calculated as summarized in Table 1.2.

● The uniform intervals indicated in Table 1.2 may then be scaled on the abscissa,
and the corresponding number of observations (column 2 in Table 1.2) can be
shown as a bar on the vertical axis, as illustrated in the histogram of Fig. 1.1a for
the rainfall intensity of the watershed area.
● Alternatively, the vertical bar may be in terms of the fraction of the total
observations (column 3 in Table 1.2) and would appear as shown in Fig. 1.1b.

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

● The area under the empirical frequency diagram must be equal to unity.
● We would obtain the empirical frequency function of Fig. 1.1c for the rainfall
intensity in the watershed area.
● We may then observe that the total area under the empirical frequency function
is equal to 1.0, and thus the area over a given range may be used to estimate the
probability of rainfall intensity within the given range.

● When two (or more) variables are involved, each variable may have its own
variability, whereas there may also be joint variability of the two variables.
● Observed data of pairs of values of the two variables can be portrayed in a two-
dimensional graph in the form of a scattergram of the observed data points.

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

Uncertainty Associated with Imperfect Knowledge – The Epistemic Uncertainty

● In engineering, we have to rely on idealized models of the real world in our
analysis and predictions for the purpose of making decisions or for planning and
developing criteria for the design of an engineering system.
● These idealized models, which may be mathematical or simulation models (e.g.,
mathematical formulas, equations, numerical algorithms, computer programs) or
even laboratory models, are imperfect representations of the real world.
● Consequently, the results of analysis, estimations, or predictions obtained on the
basis of such models are inaccurate (with some unknown degree of error) and

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

thus also contain uncertainty.

● Such uncertainties are, therefore, knowledge based and are of the epistemic
type. Quite often, this epistemic uncertainty may be more significant than the
aleatory uncertainty.
● In performing a prediction or estimation with an idealized model, the objective is
invariably to obtain a specific quantity of interest; this may be the mean-value or
median value of a variable.
● Therefore, in considering the epistemic uncertainty it is reasonable (in practice)
to limit our consideration to the inaccuracy in calculating or estimating the
central value, such as the mean-value or median value.
● We might emphasize that we can expect errors also in the estimation of the
other parameters as well as in the specification of the distribution, and thus
there are also epistemic uncertainties in these latter estimations; however, such
uncertainties are of second-order importance relative to that in the central value.
● Figure 1.30 provides a similar example for assessing the epistemic uncertainty of
a predictive model.

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

● All uncertainties, whether they are aleatory or epistemic, can be assessed in

statistical terms, and the evaluation of their significance on engineering planning
and design can be performed systematically and logically using the concepts and
methods that are embodied in the theory of probability.

Concluding Summary
● Consequently, uncertainties are unavoidable.
● The uncertainties associated with randomness are inherent variability, called
aleatory uncertainty, whereas those underlying imperfect models of reality are
knowledge-based, called epistemic uncertainty.
● Also, as a predictive model is improved the epistemic uncertainty can be
reduced; on the other hand, because the inherent variability is part of nature,
the aleatory uncertainty may not be reducible.

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

Comprehension Questions
1. What source of uncertainty is classified?

2. What does uncertainty associate with?

3. What is the aleatory uncertainty associated with?

4. What is the epistemic uncertainty associated with?
5. What can the joint of variability be portrayed?
6. What does a histogram show?

7. How are the idealized models in the real world?

8. According to the article, which uncertainty may more significant, the epistemic
one

or the aleatory one?

9. When thinking of the epistemic uncertainty, what should we consider?

10. If a predictive model improved, how is the epistemic uncertainty?

Vocabulary 1: Match
1. ( ) aleatory a. of or relating to knowledge or epistemology

2. ( ) epistemic b. not capable of being foretold

3. ( ) insufficient c. based on experiments or experience rather than

ideas or theories

4. ( ) probability d. something that decides or limits the way in which

sth can be done

5. ( ) unpredictable e. a situation in which a particular set of conditions

is created artificially in order to experience sth
that could exist in reality
6. ( ) variability f. of or relating to statistics

7. ( ) interval g. of or relating to dimensions

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

8. ( ) empirical h. the fact of sth being likely to vary

9. ( ) dimensional i. existing as an essential constituent or

characteristic

10. ( ) simulation j. a set of rules that must be followed when solving

a particular problem

11. ( ) algorithm k. how likely sth is to happen

12. ( ) parameter l. dependent on chance

13. ( ) statistical m. to express or represent an idea or a quality

14. ( ) embody n. a period of time between two events

15. ( ) inherent o. not enough

Vocabulary 2: Sentences
Choose from the words in Vocabulary 1 to complete the sentences below.
1. His salary is  to meet his needs.

2. This   also affects the performance of this electric car. 

3. The between major earthquakes might be 200 years.

4. Gambling is in nature because a payout occurs based on an event

outside of one's control.

5. When stories   values in which we don't believe, we tend to reject them.

6. In addition to the internal   of the global climate system itself, there is the added

factor of external influences, such as volcanoes and solar activity

7.  analysis is a means of arriving at a fairly reliable forecast

8. Firstly, we adapt group knowledge in  logic to the general cases. 

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

9. "An ultimate face recognition   should perform with billions

of people in a dataset," the researchers wrote.

10. Everyone has his ability, which is easily concealed by habits.

11. A general trend can be recognized, but the details are usually  .

12. This is a three-  crystal.

13. There is no  evidence to support his thesis.

14. Without a transfusion, the victim's   of dying was 100%.

15. To make the training realistic the   operates in real time.

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

Listening
In the listening part, please watch the videos below carefully and after watching
them, please share your opinions with your partners in class.

Listening 1
Chad Orzel: What is the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle?
https://www.ted.com/talks/chad_orzel_what_is_the_heisenberg_uncertainty_principle

Listening 2
Matt Anticole: What's the difference between accuracy and precision?
https://www.ted.com/talks/
matt_anticole_what_s_the_difference_between_accuracy_and_precision

Speaking
Choose one of your favorite apps on your smartphone. Think about the following
questions.
1. What is the name of the app?

2. What is it for?

3. How much is it? Or is it for free?

4. How special is it?

5. Are there unique features?

6. Are there any similar apps like it?

7. Why do you like it?

8. Are there any pros and cons?

9. In your opinion, what kind of people may be fond of it as well?

Now, make a list of pros and cons for your favorite app and also try to introduce this
app to others.

Writing
Your friend, Kate, is going to study in Munich, Germany next month. Please write
anything you would like to tell her. Besides, you and your friends are meanwhile
planning a farewell party for her. Do mention the following information, 1&2, on
the envelope, and use the 3 information in your letter. Besides, this letter must
include your greetings and wishes to Kate as well.

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

Notice: Please use the following information!

1.
Sender: (You name)
___________________________________________________________
Address: (Your address)
___________________________________________________________
2.
Recipient: Kate Gregory
Address: 106344 台北市大安區忠孝東路三段 1 號 6 樓
3.
Farewell: Date: 7 pm, Saturday, 3 September
Place: Your friend, Sam’s place

1. Envelope:

STAMP

2.

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