Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Jean Adams
Newcastle University
Objective: To study the longitudinal relationship between time perspective and smoking cessation over
4 years of follow-up among a cohort of older English adults and to determine whether the predictive
utility of time perspective in smoking cessation. Design: Analysis of data from core members of the
English Longitudinal Survey of Ageing who took part in face-to-face interviews in 2002, 2004, and 2006
This article is intended solely for the personal use of the individual user and is not to be disseminated broadly.
(n ⫽ 7,174). Main Outcome Measures: Time perspective was measured using a question on time period
This document is copyrighted by the American Psychological Association or one of its allied publishers.
for financial planning. Smoking at baseline and quitting over follow-up was determined through
self-report. Results: At baseline, planning for longer periods was associated with lower odds of being a
smoker, after controlling for age, gender, and education. Among those who were smokers at baseline,
planning for longer periods at baseline was associated with increased odds of quitting over 4 years, after
controlling for age, gender, and education. Conclusion: Including help to become more future orientated
in smoking cessation interventions may increase their effectiveness.
Keywords: time preference, cigarette, English Longitudinal Survey of Ageing, health promotion
In the United Kingdom, almost a quarter of individuals aged 16 variation in successful smoking cessation and other factors are
or over are regular cigarette smokers (Goddard & Green, 2005). likely to play a role.
The majority of smokers report both that they would like to quit The concept of “time perspective” refers to the influence that
and that they have previously tried, but failed, to quit (Lader, considerations of past, present, and future events can have on
2007). Although it is certainly possible to quit smoking, even the present day behavioral decisions. Related concepts that refer spe-
most intensive smoking cessation interventions do not achieve cifically to future time perspective include future orientation (Piko,
more than a 20% quit rate at 1 year (Cahill, Stead, & Lancaster, Luszczynska, Gibbons, & Tekozel, 2005), consideration of future
2007). Knowing what factors predict smoking cessation should consequences (Strathman, Gleicher, Boninger, & Edwards, 1994),
help in the development of more effective cessation interventions. delay of gratification (Cuskelly, Einam, & Jobling, 2001), and
A number of, largely unmodifiable, factors are known to predict impulsivity (Allen, Moeller, Rhoades, & Cherek, 1998) as well as
successful smoking cessation, including older age, male gender, the economic concepts of time preference and delay discounting
socioeconomic affluence, lower level of addiction, and diagnosis (Mazur, 1987). These concepts all have in common the proposal
of a smoking related disease (Ward, Klesges, & Halpern, 1997). In that considerations of the future outcomes of a present day behav-
addition, potentially modifiable variables such as self-efficacy, ior are important in determining whether a present day behavior
knowledge and beliefs about smoking related harm, and social will be performed.
support are also important predictors of successful cessation (Ward Despite the theoretical multidimensionality of time perspective,
et al., 1997). However, these factors do not explain all of the the majority of operationalizations of time perspective focus on the
unidimensional concept of future time perspective. These include
single questions concerning predicted longevity (Nagin & Pogar-
Jean Adams, Institute of Health and Society, Newcastle University. sky, 2004; Picone, Sloan, & Taylor, 2004; Wardle & Steptoe,
Jean Adams is supported by a United Kingdom Medical Research
2003) and time period considered with making financial planning
Council Special Training Fellowship in Health Services and Health of the
Public Research. The English Longitudinal Survey of Ageing (ELSA) is
decisions (Barsky, Juster, Kimball, & Shapiro, 1997; Komlos,
funded by the National Institute of Aging in the United States and a Smith, & Bogin, 2004; Picone et al., 2004); as well as multi-item
consortium of United Kingdom government departments co-ordinated by scales such as the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale
the Office for National Statistics. The data used in this article were made (Strathman et al., 1994) and Carstensen & Lang’s Future Time
available through the United Kingdom Data Archive. The ELSA was Perspective Scale (Lang & Carstensen, 2002), which has been used
developed by a team of researchers based at University College London to determine individuals perceived remaining life span—from lim-
and the Institute for Fiscal Studies. The data were collected by the National ited to expansive. Hypothetical money choice tasks, which are
Centre for Social Research. The developers and funders of ELSA and the
used to determine an individual’s “discount rate”—an economic
Archive do not bear any responsibility for the analyses or interpretations
marker of time perspective— have also been widely used to mea-
presented here.
Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Jean sure future time perspective (e.g., Baker, Johnson, & Bickel, 2003;
Adams, Institute of Health and Society, William Leech Building, New- Ohmura, Takahashi, & Kitamura, 2005; Reynolds, Richards, Horn,
castle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, England, NE2 4HH. E-mail: & Karraker, 2004; Yoon et al., 2007). Statistically significant
j.m.adams@ncl.ac.uk intercorrelations between most of these markers of future time
529
530 ADAMS
perspective, both before and after controlling for age, gender, and full data on all variables included in the analyses. Individuals who
household income (Adams & Nettle, 2009), suggest that they provided data via a proxy respondent were not included as they
overlap at least to some degree and thus that there truly is an were not asked the question used to determine time perspective.
underlying phenomenon of future time perspective. How this phe-
nomenon should best be measured, and whether there are impor-
tant subdomains of the concept remain to be determined. Variables of Interest
There is good reason to believe that smoking cessation is asso-
As this was a secondary analysis of extant data, originally
ciated with time perspective. Quitting requires that the immediate
collected for other purposes, the measures available were, neces-
pleasures of smoking are foregone in favor of a short-term loss
sarily, limited by data availability. Using this data was a pragmatic
(e.g., withdrawal symptoms, weight gain, and loss of a coping
approach that allowed exploitation of a large and rich dataset.
strategy; Orleans, Jepson, Resch, & Rimer, 1994) and only longer
Smoking status at each wave was determined from answers to
term health related gains (Taylor, Hasselblad, Henley, Thun, &
the question “do you smoke cigarettes at all nowadays?” with
Sloan, 2002). Quitting is, therefore, more likely to be viewed
those answering yes being coded as current smokers. Individuals
positively if the long-, rather than short-, term consequences are
This article is intended solely for the personal use of the individual user and is not to be disseminated broadly.
who had and had not quit by Wave 3. Odds ratios and r values are There was also a significant difference in the distribution of time
presented as measures of effect size as appropriate. periods for financial planning between those who were and were
Logistic regression was used to determine if time period for not smokers at Wave 1, 2(4, N ⫽ 7, 173) ⫽ 17.00, p ⬍ .001.
financial planning at Wave 1 was associated with smoking status Compared to those who reported planning for the next few weeks
at Wave 1 after controlling for age, gender, and age at leaving or less, individuals reporting all other time periods for financial
full-time education. Logistic regression was also used to assess planning had lower odds of being a smoker at Wave 1. In univar-
whether time period for financial planning at Wave 1 was longi- iate analyses, there were no statistically significant differences
tudinally associated with whether smokers at Wave 1 had quit by between those smokers at Wave 1 who did and did not quit by
Wave 3, after controlling for age, gender, and age at leaving full Wave 3 in terms of age, gender, or age at leaving education.
time education. Regression coefficients are presented as odds Although the odds of quitting smoking among those who reported
ratios with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). planning their saving and spending for more than a few weeks was
Survey weights, as provided and recommended in ELSA docu- higher than among those who planned for a few weeks or less,
mentation, were used throughout to take account of selective there was not a significant difference in the distribution of time
nonresponse across the different waves of the ELSA. All analyses
This article is intended solely for the personal use of the individual user and is not to be disseminated broadly.
period for financial planning between those smokers who did and
This document is copyrighted by the American Psychological Association or one of its allied publishers.
were conducted in Stata v9.1 using the “svy” set of commands. did not quit by Wave 3.
Adopting this weighting procedure means that it is more appro- The logistic regression model exploring the association between
priate to present percentages and standard errors in summary time period for financial planning and smoking status at Wave 1 is
tables, rather than raw numbers and percentages, and this is done. summarized in Table 2. After controlling for age, gender, and age
at leaving full time education, those who planned their saving and
Results spending for all time periods longer than a few weeks were
Of 11,030 core respondents who took part in full interviews in significantly less likely to be smokers at Wave 1 than those who
person at Wave 1, 7,448 (67.5%) also took part in full interviews planned their saving and spending for a few weeks or less ( p ⬍ .01
in person at Waves 2 and 3. Full data for the current analyses was in all cases). There was some indication of a trend in odds ratios
available for 7,173 (96.3%) of these individuals. Current cigarette such that the odds of being a smoker progressively decreased
smokers made up 17.4% of respondents at Wave 1. By Wave 3, across successively longer time periods for financial planning. In
26.8% of those coded as smokers at Wave 1 had quit. addition, the odds of being a current smoker were inversely asso-
The characteristics of all individuals included in the analysis, ciated with age (OR ⫽ 0.94, 95% CI 0.93 to 0.95, p ⬍ .001) and
current cigarette smokers at Wave 1, and quitters by Wave 3 are age at leaving full time education (OR ⫽ 0.81 95% CI 0.77 to 0.85,
summarized in Table 1. Comparisons of those who were and were p ⬍ .001).
not current smokers at Wave 1, and those smokers at Wave 1 who Table 3 summarizes the logistic regression model exploring the
did and did not quit by Wave 3 are also presented in Table 1. At association between time period for financial planning at Wave 1
Wave 1, cigarette smokers were significantly younger, t(7, 171) ⫽ and quitting behavior between Waves 1 and 3. After controlling for
13.75, r ⫽ .16, p ⬍ .001; and had left education at a significantly age, gender, and age at leaving full time education, those smokers
earlier age than nonsmokers, t(7, 171) ⫽ 6.41, r ⫽ .08, p ⬍ .001. who planned their saving and spending for all periods longer than
Table 1
Characteristics of Sample by Smoking Status at Wave 1 and Quitting Status by Wave 3
Smokers at Smokers at Wave 1 who Smokers versus nonsmokers Quitters versus nonquitters
Full sample Wave 1 quit by Wave 3 at Wave 1a at Wave 3b
Male, % (SE) 45.4 (0.6) 46.1 (1.5) 46.9 (2.8) 2(1, N ⫽ 7, 173) ⫽ 0.07, 2(1, N ⫽ 1, 199) ⫽ 0.09,
OR ⫽ 1.09, p ⫽ .79 OR ⫽ 1.09, p ⫽ .76
Age, M (SE) 64.0 (0.1) 60.6 (0.3) 60.3 (0.4) t(7, 171) ⫽ 13.75, r ⫽ .16, t(1, 199) ⫽ 0.72, r ⫽ .01,
p ⬍ .001 p ⫽ .47
Age left education, M (SE) 15.9 (0.02) 15.6 (0.04) 15.7 (0.08) t(7, 171) ⫽ 6.41, r ⫽ .08, t(1, 199) ⫽ 0.84, r ⫽ .08,
p ⬍ .001 p ⫽ .40
Time period for financial
planning, % (SE)
Next few weeks or less 21.6 (0.5) 30.0 (1.4) 23.3 (2.4) 2(4, N ⫽ 7, 173) ⫽ 17.00, 2(4, N ⫽ 1, 199) ⫽ 2.21,
p ⬍ .001c p ⫽ .066d
Next few months 12.9 (0.4) 14.5 (1.1) 15.7 (2.1) OR ⫽ .78e OR ⫽ 1.55f
Next year 15.3 (0.4) 12.8 (1.0) 14.2 (2.0) OR ⫽ .54e OR ⫽ 1.61f
Next few years 23.4 (0.5) 19.4 (1.2) 21.1 (2.3) OR ⫽ .52e OR ⫽ 1.56f
Next 5 years or more 26.7 (0.5) 23.4 (1.3) 25.7 (2.5) OR ⫽ .56e OR ⫽ 1.59f
Age at leaving education (per year particular, the current cohort focuses on older people (mean age 64
change) –0.21 0.03 0.81 (0.77 to 0.85)ⴱⴱⴱ years). As smoking cessation is concentrated in younger people
and older people are often excluded from epidemiological analy-
Note. OR ⫽ odds ratio; CI ⫽ confidence interval. ses, it is possible that previously reported predictors of smoking
ⴱⴱ
p ⬍ .01. ⴱⴱⴱ p ⬍ .001.
cessation among the population in general do not apply to older
quitters.
the next few weeks at Wave 1 were significantly more likely to The data used here are entirely self-reported and, as such, may
have quit smoking by Wave 3 than those who planned for a few be affected by social desirability bias—particularly that related to
weeks or less. Adjusting for the sociodemographic confounders smoking. However, given the variety of possible effects of social
strengthened the nonsignificant trend seen in the univariate anal- desirability of response, it is hard to speculate what specific effect
ysis to the extent that it became statistically significant. However, this may have had on the results—some individuals may have
there was little evidence of any trend in the odds of quitting across underreported smoking at Wave 1, others may have overreported
progressively longer time periods for financial planning. Age, cessation at Wave 3. In addition, self-reported smoking data com-
gender, and age at leaving full time education were not associated pares well to biochemical measures of smoking with a mean
with quitting smoking between Waves 1 and 3. sensitivity of 88% and specificity of 89% (Patrick et al., 1994).
A number of different definitions of time perspective exist and
these are accompanied by a variety of measurement instruments
Discussion
(Adams & White, in press). Although time perspective can be
This is the first longitudinal analysis of the ability of time measured using objective observations of behavior (Cairns & van
perspective to predict successful smoking cessation. Among the der Pol, 2000), this is rarely done in practice. The alternative is to
cohort of older adults studied, more future orientated time per- rely on self reported measures, but due to variations in definition
spective at baseline was associated with greater chance of quitting and conceptualization of time perspective, these are often quite
smoking over 4 years of follow up after age, gender, and age at full different from each other. The measure of future time perspective
time education were controlled for. This complements previous
findings that time perspective in early pregnancy predicted who
among a group of spontaneous quitters had relapsed by 6-months Table 3
postdelivery (Yoon et al., 2007). As previously, time perspective Summary of Logistic Regression Model Exploring Association
was also associated with smoking status at baseline (Adams & Between Time Perspective and Quitting Behavior of Smokers
Nettle, in press; Bickel et al., 1999; Keough, Zimbardo, & Boyd, Between Waves 1 and 3
1999; Mitchell, 1999; Odum et al., 2002; Ohmura et al., 2005; Piko OR (95% CI) of
et al., 2005; Reynolds et al., 2004). quitting smoking
Two possible, not necessarily mutually exclusive, explanations between Waves 1
of the cross-sectional association between future time perspective Variable (comparator level) B SE B and 3
and smoking behavior have been proposed. First, those smokers Time period for financial planning
with more future orientated time perspective are better able to quit (compared to next few weeks
smoking. Second, those smokers who quit smoking develop more or less
future orientated time perspective following quitting. The current Next few months 0.44 0.22 1.55 (1.01 to 2.39)ⴱ
findings provide evidence in favor of the former hypothesis. As Next year 0.49 0.23 1.63 (1.04 to 2.55)ⴱ
Next few years 0.48 0.20 1.61 (1.09 to 2.38)ⴱ
time perspective was not measured at follow-up, it was not pos- Next 5 years or more 0.45 0.20 1.57 (1.07 to 2.30)ⴱ
sible to confirm or refute the latter hypothesis, although previous Age (per year change) –0.01 0.01 0.99 (0.98 to 1.01)
findings do suggest that future time perspective is relatively stable Female gender (compared to male) –0.05 0.14 0.95 (0.73 to 1.24)
to changes in smoking behavior (Yoon et al., 2007). The finding of Age at leaving education (per year
change) 0.01 0.05 1.01 (0.92 to 1.10)
a “dose-response” relationship between time perspective and
smoking at baseline—such that the odds of smoking progressively Note. OR ⫽ odds ratio; CI ⫽ confidence interval.
ⴱ
decreased across progressively longer time periods for financial p ⬍ .05.
SMOKING CESSATION AND TIME PERSPECTIVE 533
employed has been used previously (Picone et al., 2004) and is viduals most financially future orientated may also be those most
associated with a number of other markers of time perspective, likely to quit smoking in response to cigarette price increases.
including the future scale of the Zimbardo Time Perspective In- Further work is required to explore the comparative importance of
ventory (Zimbardo & Boyd, 1999; r ⫽ .14), the Consideration of time perspective and other known predictors of cessation as well as
Future Consequences Scale (Strathan et al., 1994) (r ⫽ .33), and potential mediators and moderators of the relationship between
delay discount rate (r ⫽ ⫺.19; Adams & Nettle, 2009). However, time perspective and smoking cessation.
although all these measures of time perspective overlap to some As always, the findings reported here raise a number of further
degree, they are not necessarily interchangeable. In particular, questions that deserve ongoing research attention. In addition to
although delay discount rate and the measure used here focus on confirming the results in different populations and using different
financial aspects of time perspective, the future scale of the Zim- measures of both time perspective and smoking cessation, it would
bardo Time Perspective Inventory and the Consideration of Future be interesting to explore whether time perspective predicts who
Consequences Scale take a broader view of future time perspective attempts to quit smoking, who is successful in maintaining a quit
across a number of different domains. There is some evidence that attempt, or both. Unpicking the specifics of where in the pathway
future time perspective varies across different domains within of cessation time perspective is operating would help clarify where
This article is intended solely for the personal use of the individual user and is not to be disseminated broadly.
This document is copyrighted by the American Psychological Association or one of its allied publishers.
individuals (i.e., they may be very future orientated for financial time perspective focused cessation interventions should be tar-
outcomes, but less so for health outcomes; Baker et al., 2003). It is, geted. Further, although the results reported here suggest that
therefore, possible that although the financial aspect of future time interventions to alter time perspective may be helpful in increasing
perspective is important in smoking cessation (particularly given cessation rates, it is not clear how time perspective should best be
the financial implications of a regular smoking habit), other as- altered. Attempts to date to use time perspective as a focus of
pects related to balancing the immediate and future consequences intervention have been limited in scale and scope with intention to
of present day nonfinancial decisions are not. Further work should change, rather than actual behavior change, the outcome of interest
be performed to explore the relationship between other measures (Orbell & Hagger, 2006; Orbell et al., 2004). Substantial further
of time perspective and smoking cessation and to determine if the work is required to develop this area.
relationship reported here is specific to the domain of time per- The current results suggest that more future orientated time
spective studied. perspective at baseline predicts which older adults will success-
The current analysis was restricted to individuals aged 50 and fully quit over a 4-year period. These findings should be replicated
over. The results are not, therefore, necessarily generalizable to in other populations and using alternative measures of both smok-
younger individuals. Time perspective and smoking prevalence are ing cessation and time perspective before confirmed as conclusive.
both known to vary with age, with time perspective becoming less However, they provide a good indication that helping individuals
future orientated and smoking prevalence decreasing in older peo- to become more future orientated may be a beneficial addition to
ple (D’Alessio et al., 2003; Lader, 2007). Furthermore, other existing smoking cessation interventions. These findings also raise
important predictors of quit success, such as diagnosis of a smok- the possibility that time perspective is predictive of changes in
ing related illness, are likely to increase with age. Quitting behav- other health related behaviors that have been found to be associ-
ior in older adults, who may have smoked for longer, is not ated cross-sectionally with time perspective—including safer sex-
necessarily comparable to that in younger people. As such, the role ual practices (Agnew & Loving, 1998), fruit and vegetable intake,
of time perspective in successful quitting may vary with age and and frequency of physical activity (Wardle & Steptoe, 2003).
further work will be required to extend the current findings to other
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