Professional Documents
Culture Documents
PROBABILITY:
Chapter 4: 4.8, 4.9, 4.13, 4.21, 4.26, 4.28
RANDOM VARIABLES:
Chapter 5: 5.3, 5.4, 5.10, 5.11, 5.12, 5.13
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION:
Chapter 6: 6.5, 6.8, 6.10, 6.13a-c
SAMPLING:
Chapter 7: 7.15, 7.19, 7.20, 7.21, 7.22, 7.27, 7.30
CONFIDENCE INTERVALS:
Chapter 8: 8.9, 8.10, 8.16, 8.17, 8.28, 8.30, 8.33, 8.37, 8.38, 8.71, 8.73,
8.75
HYPOTHESIS TESTING:
Chapter 9: 9.9, 9.10, 9.11, 9.15, 9.22, 9.26, 9.46, 9.48, 9.57, 9.67, 9.68
Chapter 10: 10.7, 10.20 (use excel), 10.30, 10.35, 10.59
REGRESSION ANALYSIS:
Chapter 13: 13.4 (use excel), 13.9 (use excel), 13.16, 13.21, 13.42, 13.47,
13.49, 13.50, 13.58 (use approximations),
13.74a-e, g-h (use excel), 13.75 (use excel)
Chapter 14: 14.3, 14.6 (use excel), 14.10, 14.11, 14.12, 14.16 a-d, 14.25,
14.28, 14.41 a-c, e-i (use excel), 14.49 a-c, e-h, i, k (use excel)
Statistics for Managers
Using Microsoft Excel
SIXTH EDITION
David M. Levine
Department of Statistics and Computer Information Systems
David R Stephan
Department of Statistics and Computer Information Systems
Timothy C. Krehbiel
Department of Management
Mark L Berenson
Department of Management and Information Systems
Prentice Hall
Boston Columbus Indianapolis New York San Francisco Upper Saddle River
Amsterdam Cape Town Dubai London Madrid Milan Munich Paris Montreal Toronto
Delhi Mexico City Sao Paulo Sydney Hong Kong Seoul Singapore Taipei Tokyo
2.4 Organizing Numerical Data 31
Data were collected from 600 customers and organized in a. Construct a pie chart and a Pareto chart for the percent-
the following contingency tables: age of counties using the various methods.
b. What conclusions can you reach concerning the type of
GENDER voting method used in November 2006?
DESSERT ORDERED c. What differences are there between the methods used in
Male Female Total
2000 and 2006?
Yes 40 136 96
2.98 In summer 2000, a growing number of warranty
No 240 464 224
Total 600 claims on Firestone tires sold on Ford SUVs prompted
280 320
Firestone and Ford to issue a major recall. An analysis of
warranty claims data helped identify which models to recall.
BEEF ENTREE A breakdown of 2,504 warranty claims based on tire size is
given in the following table:
DESSERT ORDERED Yes No Total
organization responds to customer complaints. A large a. Construct a stem-and-leaf display for each of the three
family-held department store selling furniture and flooring, variables.
including carpet, had undergone a major expansion in the b. Construct three scatter plots: money market account ver-
past several years. In particular, the flooring department had sus one-year CD, money market account versus five-year
expanded from 2 installation crews to an installation super- CD, and one-year CD versus five-year CD.
visor, a measurer, and 15 installation crews. A business c. Discuss what you learn from studying the graphs in (a)
objective of the company was to reduce the time between and (b).
when the complaint is received and when it is resolved.
During a recent year, the company received 50 complaints 2 . 1 0 3 The file l ^ ^ t e f f l f f l includes the total compensa-
concerning carpet installation. The data from the 50 com- tion (in $) of CEOs of large public companies in 2008.
plaints, organized in WSSSSHi, represent the number of days Source: Data extracted from D. Jones and B. Hansen, "CEO Pay
Dives in a Rough 2008," www.usatoday.com, May 1, 2009.
between the receipt of the complaint and the resolution of
the complaint: a. Construct a frequency distribution and a percentage
distribution.
b. Construct a histogram and a percentage polygon.
54 5 35 137 31 27 152 2 123 81 74 27 c. Construct a cumulative percentage distribution and plot a
11 19 126 110 110 29 61 35 94 31 26 5 cumulative percentage polygon (ogive).
12 4 165 32 29 28 29 26 25 1 14 13 d. Based on (a) through (c), what conclusions can you reach
13 10 5 27 4 52 30 22 36 26 20 23 concerning CEO compensation in 2008?
33 68
2 . 1 0 4 Studies conducted by a manufacturer of "Boston"
and "Vermont" asphalt shingles have shown product weight
a. Construct a frequency distribution and a percentage to be a major factor in customers' perception of quality.
distribution. Moreover, the weight represents the amount of raw materi-
b. Construct a histogram and a percentage polygon. als being used and is therefore very important to the com-
c. Construct a cumulative percentage distribution and plot a pany from a cost standpoint. The last stage of the assembly
cumulative percentage polygon (ogive). line packages the shingles before the packages are placed on
d. On the basis of the results of (a) through (c), if you had wooden pallets. The variable of interest is the weight in
to tell the president of the company how long a customer pounds of the pallet which for most brands holds 16 squares
should expect to wait to have a complaint resolved, what of shingles. The company expects pallets of its "Boston"
would you say? Explain. brand-name shingles to weigh at least 3,050 pounds but less
than 3,260 pounds. For the company's "Vermont" brand-
2.100 Data concerning 128 of the best-selling domestic name shingles, pallets should weigh at least 3,600 pounds
beers in the United States are contained in I'/fflFEflflirTfj. but less than 3,800. Data are collected from a sample of 368
The values for three variables are included: percentage alco- pallets of "Boston" shingles and 330 pallets of "Vermont"
hol, number of calories per 12 ounces, and number of carbo- shingles and stored in fcE^iffl.
hydrates (in grams) per 12 ounces.
a. For the "Boston" shingles, construct a frequency distri-
Source: Data extracted from www.Beerl00.com, June 15, 2009.
bution and a percentage distribution having eight class
a. Construct a percentage histogram for each of the three intervals, using 3,015, 3,050, 3,085, 3,120, 3,155, 3,190,
variables. 3,225, 3,260, and 3,295 as the class boundaries.
b. Construct three scatter plots: percentage alcohol versus
b. For the "Vermont" shingles, construct a frequency distri-
calories, percentage alcohol versus carbohydrates, and
bution and a percentage distribution having seven class
calories versus carbohydrates.
intervals, using 3,550, 3,600, 3,650, 3,700, 3,750, 3,800,
c. Discuss what you learn from studying the graphs in (a) 3,850, and 3,900 as the class boundaries.
and (b).
c. Construct percentage histograms for the "Boston" shin-
2.101 The file rffiflfotregfl contains the state cigarette tax, gles and for the "Vermont" shingles.
in dollars, for each state as of April 1, 2009. d. Comment on the distribution of pallet weights for the
a. Develop an ordered array. "Boston" and "Vermont" shingles. Be sure to identify
"• Plot a percentage histogram. the percentage of pallets that are underweight and
c. What conclusions can you reach about the differences in overweight.
the state cigarette tax between the states?
2 . 1 0 5 The file £SEEE222BS includes the overall cost
<• 102 The file ? ^ 2 S S I S 3 contains the yields for a money index, the monthly rent for a two-bedroom apartment, the
Market account, a one-year certificate of deposit (CD), and cost of a cup of coffee with service, the cost of a fast-food
a five-year CD, for 23 banks in the metropolitan New York hamburger meal, the cost of dry-cleaning a men's blazer, the
ar
ea, as of May 28, 2009. cost of toothpaste, and the cost of movie tickets in 10 differ-
0Urce:
Data extracted from www.Bankrate.com, May 28, 2009. ent cities.
100 CHAPTER 3 Numerical Descriptive Measures
3.4 The following is a set of data from a sample of n = 5: | /SELF| 3.10 The file MPWflJlffifi contains the prices for
7 - 5 - 8 7 9 MBlfrTTn two tickets, with online service charges, large pop-
corn, and two medium soft drinks, at a sample of six theater
a. Compute the mean, median, and mode.
chains:
b. Compute the range, variance, standard deviation, and
$36.15 $31.00 $35.05 $40.25 $33.75 $43.00
coefficient of variation.
c. Compute the Z scores. Are there any outliers? Source: Data extracted from K. Kelly, "The Multiplex Under Siege,"
The Wall Street Journal December '24-25, 2005, pp. PI, P5.
d. Describe the shape of the data set.
a. Compute the mean and median.
3.5 Suppose that the rate of return for a particular stock b. Compute the variance, standard deviation, range, and
during the past two years was 10% and 30%. Compute the coefficient of variation.
geometric rate of return. (Note: A rate of return of 10% is c. Are the data skewed? If so, how?
recorded as 0.10, and a rate of return of 30% is recorded d. Based on the results of (a) through (c), what conclu-
as 0.30.) sions can you reach concerning the cost of going to the
3.6 Suppose that the rate of return for a particular stock movies?
during the past two years was 20% and —30%. Compute the 3.11 The file E23SII contains the overall miles per gallon
geometric rate of return. (MPG) of 2009 sedans priced under $20,000.
27 31 30 28 27 24 29 32
APPLYING THE CONCEPTS 32 27 26 26 25 26 25 24
3.7 A business school reported its findings from a study Source: Data extracted from "Vehicle Ratings," Consumer Reports,
of recent graduates. A sample of n — 10 finance majors April 2009, p. 27.
had a mean starting salary of $45,000, a median starting a. Compute the mean, median, and mode.
salary of $45,000, and a standard deviation of $10,000. b. Compute the variance, standard deviation, range, coeffi-
A sample of n = 10 information systems majors had cient of variation, and Z scores.
a mean starting salary of $56,000, a median of $45,000, c. Are the data skewed? If so, how?
and a standard deviation of $37,000. Discuss the central d. Compare the results of (a) through (c) to those of
tendency, variation, and shape of starting salaries for the Problem 3.12 (a) through (c) that refer to the miles per
two majors. gallon of SUVs priced under $30,000.
3.2 Variation and Shape 101
3.12 The file EE^'- contains the overall miles per gallon a. For money market accounts and five-year CDs, sepa-
(MPG) of 2009 small SUVs priced under $30,000. rately compute the variance, standard deviation, range,
and coefficient of variation.
24 23 22 21 22 22 18 19 19 19 21 21
b. Based on the results of (a), do money market accounts or
21 18 19 21 17 22 18 18 22 16 16 five-year CDs have more variation in the highest yields
Source: Data extracted from "Vehicle Ratings," Consumer Reports, offered? Explain.
April 2009, pp. 33-34.
a. Compute the mean, median, and mode. 3.16 The file l^r^TpslH^ contains the starting admission
b. Compute the variance, standard deviation, range, coeffi- price (in $) for one-day tickets to 10 theme parks in the
cient of variation, and Z scores. United States:
c. Are the data skewed? If so, how? 58 63 41 42 29 50 62 43 40 40
d. Compare the results of (a) through (c) to those of Source: Data extracted from C. Jackson and E. Gamerman,
Problem 3.11 (a) through (c) that refer to the miles per "Rethinking the Thrill Factor," The Wall Street Journal, April 15-16,
2006, pp. PI, P4.
gallon of sedans priced under $20,000.
a. Compute the mean, median, and mode.
3.13 The file E2SSBH22J5 contains the cost (in cents) per b. Compute the range, variance, and standard deviation.
l-ounce serving for a sample of 13 chocolate chip cookies. c. Based on the results of (a) and (b), what conclusions can
The data are as follows: you reach concerning the starting admission price for
54 22 25 23 36 43 7 43 25 47 24 45 44 one-day tickets.
Source: Data extractedfrom "Chip, Chip, Hooray," Consumer Reports, d. Suppose that the first value was 98 instead of 58. Repeat
June 2009, p. 7. (a) through (c), using this value. Comment on the differ-
a. Compute the mean, median, and mode. ence in the results.
b. Compute the variance, standard deviation, range, coeffi-
3.17 A bank branch located in a commercial district of a
cient of variation, and Z scores. Are there any outliers?
city has the business objective of developing an improved
Explain.
process for serving customers during the noon-to-l:00 P.M.
c. Are the data skewed? If so, how?
lunch period. The waiting time, in minutes, is defined as the
d. Based on the results of (a) through (c), what conclusions
time the customer enters the line to when he or she reaches
can you reach concerning the cost of chocolate chip
the teller window. Data are collected from a sample of 15
cookies?
customers during this hour. The file EH2S1 contains the
3.14 The file l»JTJ!l«iiE!WffEI contains the cost per ounce results, which are listed below:
($) for a sample of 14 dark chocolate bars. 4.21 5.55 3.02 5.13 4.77 2.34 3.54 3.20
0.68 0.72 0.92 1.14 1.42 0.94 0.77 4.50 6.10 0.38 5.12 6.46 6.19 3.79
0.57 1.51 0.57 0.55 0.86 1.41 0.90 a. Compute the mean and median.
Source: Data extracted from "Dark Chocolate: Which Bars Are Best? " b. Compute the variance, standard deviation, range, coeffi-
Consumer Reports, September 2007, p. 8.
cient of variation, and Z scores. Are there any outliers?
a. Compute the mean, median, and mode. Explain.
b. Compute the variance, standard deviation, range, coefficient c. Are the data skewed? If so, how?
of variation, and Z scores. Are there any outliers? Explain. d. As a customer walks into the branch office during the
c. Are the data skewed? If so, how? lunch hour, she asks the branch manager how long she
d. Based on the results of (a) through (c), what conclusions can expect to wait. The branch manager replies, "Almost
can you reach concerning the cost of dark chocolate bars? certainly less than five minutes." On the basis of the
results of (a) through (c), evaluate the accuracy of this
3.15 Is there a difference in the variation of the yields of
different types of investments? The file i:EfflOTf?ir.l contains statement.
the nationwide highest yields of money market accounts and 3.18 Suppose that another bank branch, located in a resi-
five-year CDs as of May 17, 2009: dential area, is also concerned with the noon-to-1 P.M. lunch
hour. The waiting time, in minutes, collected from a sample
of 15 customers during this hour, is contained in the file
Money Market Five-Year CD
i:pms4 and listed below:
2.25 3.70 9.66 5.90 8.02 5.79 8.73 3.82 8.01 8.35
2.20 3.66
2.12 3.65 10.49 6.68 5.64 4.08 6.17 9.91 5.47
2.03 3.50 a. Compute the mean and median.
2.02 3.50 b. Compute the variance, standard deviation, range, coeffi-
cient of variation, and Z scores. Are there any outliers?
Source: Data extracted from www.Bankrate.com, May 17, 2009.
Explain.
3.4 Numerical Descriptive Measures for a Population 113
EXAMPLE 3.16 As in Example 3.15, a population of 12-ounce cans of cola is known to have a mean fill-weight
of 12.06 ounces and a standard deviation of 0.02. However, the shape of the population is
Using the unknown, and you cannot assume that it is bell-shaped. Describe the distribution of fill-
Chebyshev Rule weights. Is it very likely that a can will contain less than 12 ounces of cola?
SOLUTION
fi ± a = 12.06 ± 0.02 = (12.04, 12.08)
fi ± 2a = 12.06 ± 2(0.02) = (12.02,12.10)
fi±3(r = 12.06 ± 3(0.02) = (12.00,12.12)
Because the distribution may be skewed, you cannot use the empirical rule. Using the
Chebyshev rule, you cannot say anything about the percentage of cans containing between
12.04 and 12.08 ounces. You can state that at least 75% of the cans will contain between 12.02
and 12.10 ounces and at least 88.89% will contain between 12.00 and 12.12 ounces. Therefore,
between 0 and 11.11% of the cans will contain less than 12 ounces.
You can use these two rules to understand how data are distributed around the mean when you
have sample data. With each rule, you use the value you calculated for X in place of JX and the
value you calculated for £ in place of a. The results you compute using the sample statistics are
approximations because you used sample statistics (X, S) and not population parameters (/JL, o~).
The value and revenues of the NBA teams are very highly correlated. The teams with the
lowest revenues have the lowest values. The teams with the highest revenues have the high-
est values. This relationship is very strong, as indicated by the coefficient of correlation,
r = 0.9848.
Although in general you cannot assume that just because two variables are correlated that
changes in one variable caused changes in the other variable, for this example, it makes sense
to conclude that changes in revenue will cause changes in the value of a team.
INCOME LEVEL
What is the probability of
a. event A'? U.S. TAX Less Than More Than
b. event A alld B? CODE $50,000 $50,000 Total
c. event A' Gnd B'?
Fair 225 ISO 405
d. event A' or B',?
Unfair 280 320 600
Total 505 1,005
APPLYING THE CONCEPTS
4.5 For each of the following, indicate whether the type of a. Give an example of a simple event.
probability involved is an example of a priori probability, b. Give an example of a joint event.
empirical probability. or subjective probability. c. What is the complement of "tax code is fair'''?
a. The next toss of a fair coin will land on heads. d. Why is "tax code is fair and makes less than $50,000" a
b. Italy will win soccer's World Cup the next time the C0111- joint event?
petition is held.
4.9 Referring to the contingency table in Problem 4.8, if a
c. The sum of the faces of two dice will be seven.
respondent is selected at random, what is the probability
d. The train taking a commuter to work will be more than
that he or she
10 minutes late.
a. thinks the tax code is unfair?
4.6 For each of the following, state whether the events cre- b. thinks the tax code is unfair and makes less than
ated are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. If $50,OOO?
they are not mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. c. thinks the tax code is unfair or makes less than S50.000?
either reword the categories to make them mutually exclusive d. Explain the difference in the results in (b) and (c).
.. 4, I Basic Probability Concepts 141
4.10 Do people of different age groups differ in their c. ゥセ@ engaged with his or her workplace or is a U.S.
response to email messages? A survey by the Center for the worker?
Digital Future of the University of Southem California (data d. Explain the difference in the results in (b) and (c).
extracted from A. Mindlin, "Older Email Users Favor Fast
4.13 Where people turn for news is different for various
Replies:' The New York Times, July 14, 2008. p. B3) reported
age groups. A study conducted on this issue (data extracted
that 70.7% of users over 70 years of age believe that email
from P Johnson, "Young People Turn to the Web for News,"
messages should be answered quickly, as compared to 53.6%
USA Today, March 23, 2006, p. 9D) was based on 200
ofusers 12 to 50 years old, Suppose that the survey was based
respondents who were between ages 36 and 50 and 200
on 1,000 users over 70 years of age and 1,000 users 12 to
respondents who were over age 50. Of the 200 respondents
50 years old. The following table summarizes the results:
who were between ages 36 and 50, 82 got their news prima-
rily from newspapers. Of the 200 respondents who were over
AGE OF RESPONDENTS age 50, 104 got their news primarily from newspapers.
ANSWERS QUICKLY 1250 Over 70 Total Construct a contingency table to evaluate the probabilities.
I f a respondent is selected at random, what is the probability
Yes 536 707 1,243
that he or she
No 464 293 757
a. got news primarily from newspapers'?
Total 1,000 1,000 2,000
b. got news primarily from newspapers and IS over
50 years old?
a. Give an example of a simple event. c. got news primarily from newspapers or IS over
b. Give an example of a joint event. 50 years old?
c. What is the complement of a respondent who answers d. Explain the difference in the results in (b) and (c).
quickly?
d. Why is a respondent who answers quickly and is over 4.14 A sample of 500 respondents in a large metropoli-
70 years old a joint event? tan area was selected to study consumer behavior. Among
the questions asked was "Do you enjoy shopping for cloth-
4.11 Referring to the contingency table in Problem 4.10, if a ing?" Of 240 males, 136 answered yes. Of 260 females,
respondent is selected at random, what is the probability that 224 answered yes. Construct a contingency table to evalu-
a. he or she answers quickly? ate the probabilities, What is the probability that a respon-
b. is over 70 years old? dent chosen at random
c. he or she answers quickly or is over 70 years old? a. enjoys shopping for clothing?
d. Explain the difference in the results in (b) and (c). b. is a female and enjoys shopping for clothing?
r7SELi=l 4.12 According to a Gallup pッャセL@ the セクエ・ョ@ to c. is a female or enjoys shopping for clothing?
BilmJ which employees are engaged with their work- d. is a male or a female?
place varies from country to country. Gallup reports that the 4.15 Each year, ratings are compiled concerning the per-
percentage of U.S. workers engaged with their workplace formance of new cars during the first 90 days of use.
is more than twice as high as the percentage of German Suppose that the cars have been categorized according to
workers. The study also shows that having more engaged whether a car needs warrantyrelated repair (yes or no) and
workers leads to increased innovation, productivity, and the country in which the company manufacturing a car is
profitability, as well as reduced employee turnover. The based (United States or not United States). Based on the data
results of the poll are summarized in the following table: collected, the probability that the new car needs a warranty
repair is 0.04, the probability that the car was manufactured
COUNTRY by a U.S.based company is 0.60, and the probability that
ENGAGEMENT United States Germany Total the new car needs a warranty repair and was manufactured
by a U.S.based company is 0.025. Construct a contingency
Engaged 550 246 796 table to evaluate the probabilities of a warrantyrelated
Not engaged 1,345 1,649 2,994 repair. What is the probability that a new car selected at
Total 1,895 1,895 3,790 random
Source: Data extracted jiT)m M. Nink, "Employee Disengagement Plagues a. needs a warranty repair?
German):" Gallup Management Journal, gmj.gallup.com. April 9. 2009. b. needs a warranty repair and was manufactured by a U.S.-
based company?
If an employee is selected at random, what is the probability c. needs a warranty repair or was manufactured by a U.S.-
that he or she based company?
a. is engaged with his or her workplace? d. needs a warranty repair or was not manufactured by a
b. is a u.s. worker? U.S.based company?
4.2 Conditional Probability 147
HセIcッ@ + H[ッセIc@
200 50 250
=+ 0.25
1,000 1,000 1,000
he
ult
on
I Problems for Section 4.2
LEARNING THE BASICS 200 respondents who were over age 50. Of the 200 respon-
ng
79 4.16 Given the following contingency table: dents who were between ages 36 and 50, 82 got their news
primarily from newspapers. Of the 200 respondents who were
over age 50, 104 got their news primarily from newspapers.
B B'
a. Given that a respondent is over age 50, what is the proba-
A 10 20 bility that he or she gets news primarily from newspapers?
A' 20 40 b. Given that a respondent gets news primarily from newspa-
pers, what is the probability that he or she is over age 50?
What is the p robability of c. Explain the difference in the results in (a) and (b).
a. AlB? d. Are the two events whether the respondent is over age 50
or b. AlB'? and whether he or she gets news primarily from newspa-
c. A' IB'? pers independent?
d. Are events A and B independent?
4.22 Do people of different age groups differ in their
4.17 Given the following contingency table: response to email messages? A survey by the Center for
the Digital Future of the University of Southern California
B B' (data extracted from A. Mindlin, "Older Email Users Favor
Fast Replies," The New York Times, July 14,2008, p. B3)
A 10 30
reported that 70.7% of users over 70 years of age believe
A' 25 35 that email messages should be answered quickly, as com-
pared to 53.6% of users J 2 to 50 years old. Suppose that the
re What is the probability of survey was based on 1,000 users over 70 years of age and
a. AlB? 1,000 users 12 to 50 years old. The following table summa-
b. A' IB'? rizes the results:
c. AlB'?
d. Are events A and B independent?
AGE OF RESPONDENTS
4.18 If peA and B) = 0.4 and PCB) 0.8, find peA IB).
ANSWERS QUICKLY 1250 Over 70 Total
n 4.19 If peA) 0.7,P(B) 0.6, and A and B are inde-
Yes 536 707 1,243
pendent, find peA and B).
No 464 293 757
4.20 If peA) 0.3, PCB) = 0.4, and peA and B) = 0.2, Total 1,000 1,000 2,000
are A and B independent?
a. Suppose you know that the respondent is between 12 and
APPLYING THE CONCEPTS 50 years old. What is the probability that he or she answers
4.21 Where people turn for news is different for various age quiekly?
groups. Suppose that a study conducted on this issue (data b. Suppose you know that the respondent is over 70 years old.
extracted from P. Johnson, "Young People Turn to the Web What is the probability that he or she answers quickly?
for News," U,)A Today, March 23. 2006, p. 9D) was based c. Are the two events, answers quickly and age, independent?
on 200 respondents who were between ages 36 and 50 and Explain.
148 CllAP1TR..\ Basic Probahililv
4.23 According to an Ipso:; poll. the pcn.:eption or unrair- 4.25 A セHャQーォ@ or "Oil イセウーッョ、・エB@ in a large llletropnlit:ll)
ness in the U.S. tax code ゥセ@ spread fairly e\c111y 。」イッセB@ area WHS sckctcd III study consumer beha\ior. \\ ilh エィセ@
incomc groups, age groups, and cducation ャ・ョセウN@ In an April following results:
2006 survey of 1,005 ildults, Ipsos reportt'd that almost Clf)%
of all people said the code is unfair. whereas slightly more GENDER
ENJOYS SHOPPING
than 60% of those making morc than $50.000 vit'wcd the
FOR CLOTHING Male Female Total
code as unfair ("Pt'op1c Cry Unfairness," The Cillcilll/ali
El1quirer. April 16. 2006. p. A8). Suppose that the following Yes 136 224 36[)
contingency table represents the speci fic breakdown of No 104 36 140
responses: Total 240 260 500
INCOME LEVEL a. Suppose the respondent chosen is a female. What is the
probability that she does not enjoy shopping for clothing?
Less Than More Than b. Suppose the respondent chosen enjoys shopping for
TAX COOE $50,000 Total clothing. What is the probability that the individual is a
Fair 225 180 405 male'?
Unfair 280 320 600 c. Are enjoying shopping for elothing and the gender of the
Total 505 500 1,005 individual independent? Explain.
4.26 Each year, ratings are compiled coneerning the per-
a. Given that a respondent earns less than $50,000, what formance of new cars during the first 90 days of u:;e.
is the probability that he or she said that the tax code is Suppose that the cars have been categorized according to
fair? whether a car needs warrantyrelated repair (yes or no) and
b. Given that a respondent earns more than $50.000, what the country in which the company manufacturing a C,lr is
is the probability that he or she said that the tax code is based (United States or not United States). Based on the
fair? data collected the probability that the new car needs a war-
c. Is income level independent of attitude about whether the ranty repair is 0.04, the probability that the car is manufac-
tax code is fair? Explain. tured by a U.S.based company is 0.60, and the probability
セ 4.24 According to a Gallup Poll, the extent to that the new car needs a warranty repair and was manufac-
セ which employees are engaged with their work- tured by a U.S.based company is 0.025.
place varies from country to country. Gallup reports that the a. Suppose you know that a company based in the United
percentage of U.S. workers engaged with their workplace is States manufactured a particular car. What is the proha-
more than twice as high as the percentage of German work- bility that the car needs warranty repair?
ers. The study also shows that having more engaged workers b. Suppose you know that a company based in the United
leads to increased innovation, productivity, and profitability, States did not manufacture a particular car. What is the
as well as reduced employee turnover. The results of the poll probability that the car needs warranty repair?
are summarized in the following table: c. Are need for warranty repair and location of the cOIll[1any
manufacturing the car independent?
COUNTRY 4.27 In 37 of the 59 years from 1950 through 2008. the
S&P 500 finished higher after the first 5 days of trading In
ENGAGEMENT United States Germany Total
32 of those 37 years, the S&P 500 finished higher for the
Engaged 550 246 796 year. Is a good first week a good omen for the upcoming
Not Engaged 1,345 1,649 2,994 year? The following table gives the firstweek and annual
Total 1,895 1.895 3,790 performance over this 59year period:
Source: Dala exfracledfi'Oln M. Nink. "Employee Disengagemelll
Plagues Germany," Gallup Management Journal. gmj.gallup.com, S&P 500'S ANNUAL PERFORMANCE
April 9. 20()9.
FIRST WEEK Higher Lower
Mセ@ -
,. a. Given that a worker is from the United States. what is the Higher 32 5
probability that the worker is engaged'? Lower ]I II
b. Given that a worker is from the United States, what is the
probability that the worker is not engaged? a. If a year is selected at random, what is the probahility
c. Given that a worker is from Germany. what is the proba- that the S&P 500 finished higher for the year?
bility that the worker is engaged? b. Given that the S&P 500 finished higher after the first
d. Given that a worker is from Germany, what is the proba- 5 days of trading. what is the probability that it finished
bility that the worker is not engaged? higher for the year?
;:e
4.3 Bayes' Theorem 149
4.3 Bayes'Theorem
Bayes' theorem is used to revise previously calculated probabilities based on new infor-
mation. Developed by Thomas Bayes in the eighteenth century (see references], 2,
and 5), Bayes' theorem is an extension of what you previously learned about conditional
probability.
Apply Bayes' theorem using You can apply Bayes' theorem to the situation in which M&R Electronics World is consid-
the instructions in Section ering marketing a new model of television. In the past, 40% of the new model televisions have
EGO.
been successful, and 60% have been unsuccessful. Before introducing the new model televi-
sion, the marketing research department conducts an extensive study and releases a report,
either favorable or unfavorable. In the past, 80% of the successful new model televisions had
received favorable market research reports, and 30% of the unsuccessful new model televi-
sions had received favorable reports. For the new model of television under consideration, the
marketing research department has issued a favorable report. What is the probability that the
television will be successful?
Bayes' theorem is developed from the definition of conditional probability. To find the
conditional probability of B given A, consider Equation (4 Ab) (originally presented on page
142 and shown below):
peA and B) peA IB)P(B)
PCB IA) .. -
peA) peA)
Bayes' theorem is derived by substituting Equation (4.8) on page 146 for peA) in the denomi-
nator of Equation (4Ab).
BAYES'THEOREM
PCB; I A) (4.9)
5.2 Covariance and Its Application in Finance
In Section 5.1, the expected value, variance, and standard deviation of a discrete random variable
of a probability distribution are discussed. In this section, the covariance between two variables
is introduced and applied to portfolio management, a topic of great interest to financial analysts.
Covariance
The covariance, (J);r, measures the strength of the relationship between two numerical random
variables, X and Y. A positive covariance indicates a positive relationship. A negative covari-
ance indicates a negative relationship. A covariance of 0 indicates that the two variables are
independent. Equation (5.4) defines the covariance for a discrete probability distribution.
5.2 Co\'ariance and Its Application in Finance 169
5.9 Two investments, X and Y. have the following 5.13 Suppose that in Problem 5.12 you wanted to create a
characteristics: portfolio that consists of stock X and stock Y. Compute the
portfolio expected return and portfolio risk for each of the
£(X) $50, £( Y) = $100, Htセ@ = 9,000. following percentages invested in stock X:
1 a.30%
(T}, = 15,000. and axr = 7,500.
b.50%
c.70%
If the weight of portfolio assets assigned to investment X is
d. On the basis of the results of (a) through (c), which port-
OA, compute the
folio would you recommend? Explain.
a. portfolio expected return.
b. portfolio risk. 5.14 You are trying to develop a strategy for investing in
two different stocks. The anticipated annual return for a
APPLYING THE CONCEPTS $1,000 investment in each stock under four different eco-
5.10 The process of being served at a bank consists of two nomic conditions has the following probability distribution:
independent partsthe time waiting in line and the time it
takes to be served by the teller. Suppose that the time wait-
Returns
ing in line has an expected value of 4 minutes, with a stan-
dard deviation of 1.2 minutes, and the time it takes to be Probability Economic Condition Stock X Stock Y
served by the teller has an expected value of 5.5 minutes, 0.1 Recession 50 100
with a standard deviation of 1.5 minutes. Compute the 0.3 Slow growth 20 50
a. expected value of the total time it takes to be served at 0.4 Moderate growth 100 130
the bank. 0.2 Fast growth 150 200
b. standard deviation of the total time it takes to be served at
the bank. Compute the
5.11 In the portfolio example in this section (see page a. expected return for stock X and for stock Y.
168), half the portfolio assets are invested in the Dow Jones b. standard deviation for stock X and for stock Y.
fund and half in a weakeconomy fund. Recalculate the port- c. covariance of stock X and stock Y.
folio expected return and the portfolio risk if d. Would you invest in stock X or stock Y? Explain.
a. 30% of the portfolio assets are invested in the Dow Jones 5.15 Suppose that in Problem 5.14 you wanted to create a
fund and 70% in a weakeconomy fund. portfolio that consists of stock X and stock Y. Compute the
b. 70% of the portfolio assets are invested in the Dow Jones portfolio expected return and portfolio risk for each of the
fund and 30% in a weakeconomy fund. following percentages invested in stock X:
c. Which of the three investment strategies (30%, 50%, or a.30%
70% in the Dow Jones fund) would you recommend? b.50%
Why? c.70%
r7'SElFl 5.12 You are trying to develop a strategy for d. On the basis of the results of (a) through (c), which port-
. . . investing in two different stocks. The anticipated folio would you recommend? Explain .
annual return for a $1,000 investment in each stock under 5.16 You plan to invest $1,000 in a corporate bond fund or
four different economic conditions has the following proba-
I
in a common stock fund. The following information about the
bility distribution: annual return (per $1,000) of each of these investments under
different economic conditions is available, along with the
probability that each of these economic conditions will occur:
I
Returns
Probability Economic Condition Stock X Stock Y
Economic Corporate Common
! 0.1 Recession 100 50 Probability Condition Bond Fund Stock Fund
0.3 Slow growth 0 150
0.3 Moderate growth 80 0.10 Recession 70 300
20
0.3 Fast growth 0.15 Stagnation 30 100
150 100
0.35 Slow growth 80 100
0.30 Moderate growth 100 150
Compute the 0.10 High growth 120 350
a. expected return for stock X and for stock Y.
b. standard deviation for stock X and for stock Y. Compute the
c. covariance of stock X and stock Y. a. expected return for the corporate bond fund and for the
d. Would you invest in stock X or stock Y? Explain. common stock fund.
-,F
セ@
セ@
.
6.9 The owner of a fish market determined thaI the mean c. What is the probability that a call lasted between 110 and
weight for salmon is 12.3 pounds. with a standard deviation 180 seconds?
of 2 pounds. Assuming that the weights of salmon are nor- d. I % of all calls will last less than how many seconds?
mally distributed, what is the probability that a randomly
6.12 According to the American Society for Quality, a
selected salmon will weigh
certified quality engineer (CQE) is a professional who
a. between 12 and 15 pounds?
understands the principles of product and service qualily
b. less than 10 pounds?
evaluation and control. In a 2008 survey, the mean salary of
c. Between what two values will 95% of the salmon weights
l,387 CQEs was $72,824, with a standard deviation of
fall?
$18,796 (I. Elaine Allen, "Salary Survey: Seeing Green,"
6.10 A set of final examination grades in an introductory Quality Progress, December 2008, pp. 2053). Assume that
statistics course is normally distributed, with a mean of 73 the salaries of CQEs is approximately normally distributed.
and a standard deviation of 8. For a randomly selected CQE, what is the probability that he
a. What is the probability of getting a grade below 91 on Of she has a salary
this exam? a. below $50.000'1
b. What is the probability that a student scored between 65 b. above $75,000'1
and 89? c. above $100,000'1
c. The probability is 5% that a student taking the test scores 6.13 Many manufacturing problems involve the matching
higher than what grade?
of machine parts, such as shafts that fit into a valve hole. A
d. If the professor grades on a curve (i.e., gives A's to the top
particular design requires a shaft with a diameter of 22.000
10% of the class, regardless of the score), are you better
mm, but shafts with diameters between 21.990 mm and
off with a grade of 81 on this exam or a grade of 68 on a
22,0 I 0 mm are acceptable. Suppose that the manufacturing F
different exam, where the mean is 62 and the standard
process yields shafts with diameters normally distributed, C
deviation is 3? Show your answer statistically and explain.
with a mean of22.002 mm and a standard deviation of 0.005 tr
6.11 A statistical analysis of 1,000 longdistance telephone mm. For this process, what is
calls made from the headquarters of the Bricks and Clicks a. the proportion of shafts with a diameter between 21.99 5,
Computer Corporation indicates that the length of these mm and 22.00 mm? dl
01
calls is normally distributed, with 1L = 240 seconds and b. the probability that a shaft is acceptable? to
a = 40 seconds. c. the diameter that will be exceeded by only 2% of the shafts?
a. What is the probability that a call lasted less than 180 d. What would be your answers in (a) through (c) if
seconds? the standard deviation of the shaft diameters were
b. What is the probability that a call lasted between 180 and 0.004 mm?
300 seconds?
• It is symmetrical; thus, the mean and median are equal.
• It is bellshaped; thus, the empirical rule applies. .
II
• The interquartile range equal::> 1.33 standard deviations.
• The range is approximately equal to 6 standard deviations.
In actual practice, a continuous variable may have characteristics that approximate these
I
theoretical properties. However, many continuous variables are neither normally distributed
nor approximately normally distributed. For such variables, the descriptive characteristics of
l
' ....
240 (II.\I'IIR
Sanlpling Distribution of the Proportion
Consider a categorical variable that has only two categories, such as the customer prefers your
brand or the customer prefers the competitor's brand. You are interested in the proportion or
items belonging to one of the categoriesfor example, the proportion of customers that prefer
P'
242 CHAPTER 7 Sampling and Sampling Distrihutiol1S f
0.30 - OAO
r;
V-- 200 -
. --
1(0.40)(0.60)
--0.10
iセM
10.24
--0.10
0.0346
I
\j 200
= 2.89
Using Table E.2, the area under the normal curve less than 2.89 is 0.0019. Therefore, if the
true proportion of items of interest in the population is 0040, then only 0.19% of the samples
of II = 200 would be expected to have sample proportions less than 0.30.
re
Ie
Ie
Id
).
7.6 'Online Topic: Sampling from Finite Populations
,I. In this section, sampling without replacement from finite populations is discussed. To study
rs this topic, read the Section 7.6 online topic file that is available on this book's companion Web
site. (See Appendix Section D.8 to learn how to access the online topic files.)
111
@ Oxford Cereals Revisited
s the plant operations manager for Oxfords Cereals, you were
IT responsible for monitoring the amount of cereal placed in
each box. To be consistent with package labeling, boxes
should contain a mean of 368 grams of cereal. Thousands of
o boxes are produced during a shift, and weighing every single box was
I.
determined to be too timeconsuming, costly, and inefficient. Instead. a
S
sample of boxes was selected. Based on your analysis of the sample, you had to decide whether
e to maintain, alter, or shut down the process.
s Using the concept of the sampling distribution of the mean, you were able to determine prob-
"
abilities that such a sample mean could have been randomly selected from a population with a
mean of 368 grams. Specifically, if a sample of size 11 = 25 is selected from a population with a
258 CIIAPTER X Confidence lnlenul btlmalion
95°1(, confidencc that the mean annual income of the 2 mil- 8.9 The manager of a paint supply store wants to estimate
lion customers is between $70,000 and S85,OOO. Explain thc the actual amount of paint contained in Igallon cans pur-
meaning of this statement. chased from a nationally known manufacturer. The manu-
facturer's specifications state that the standard deviation of
8.6 Suppose that you are going to collect a set of data, the amount of paint is equal to 0.02 gallon. A random sam-
either from an entire population or from a random sample ple of 50 cans is selected, and the sample mean amount of
taken from that population. painl per Igallon can is 0.995 gallon.
a. Which statistical measure would you compute first: the a. Construct a 99% confidence interval estimate for the pop-
mean or the standard deviation? Explain. ulation mean amounl of paint included in a Igallon can.
b. What does your answer to (a) tell you about the "practi- b. On the basis of these results, do you think that the man-
cality" of using the confidence interval estimate formula ager has a right to complain to the manufacturer? Why?
given in Equation (8.1)? c. Must you assume that the popUlation amount of paint per
. !
can is normally distributed here? Explain.
8.7 Consider the confidence interval estimate discussed in d. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate. How dues
Problem 8.5. Suppose that the population mean annual this change your answer to (b)?
income is $71,000. Is the confidence interval estimate stated
in Problem 8.5 correct? Explain. fI"'SELFl 8.10 The quality control manager at a light bulb
IIiIi'!J!il factory needs to estimate the mean life of a large
8.8 You are working as an assistant to the dean of institu- shipment of light bulbs. The standard deviation is 100 hours.
tional research at your university. She wants to survey A random sample of 64 light bulbs indicated a sample mean
members of the alumni association who obtained their bac- life of 350 hours.
calaureate degrees 5 years ago to learn what their starting a. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for the
salaries were in their first fulltime job after receiving their population mean life of light bulbs in this shipment.
degrees. A sample of 100 alumni is to be randomly selected b. Do you think that the manufacturer has the right to state
from the list of 2,500 graduates in that class. If her goal is that the light bulbs have a mean life of 400 hours'? Explain.
to construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for the pop- c. Must you assume that the population light bulb life is
ulation mean starting salary, why is it unlikely that you will normally distributed? Explain.
be able to use Equation (8.1) on page 255 for this purpose? d. Suppose that the standard deviation changes to 80 hours.
Explain. What are your answers in (a) and (b)?
Student's t Distribution
At the start of the twentieth century, William S. Gosset was working at Guinness, trying to help
the Irish brewer brew better beer less expensively (see reference 4). As he had only small samples
to study, he needed to find a way to make inferences about means without having to know (]'.
'Guinness considered all research Writing under the pen name "Student,"] Gosset solved this problem by developing what today
conducted to be proprietary and a is known as the Student's t distribution, or the t distribution, for short.
trade secret. The firm prohibited its
employees from publishing their
If the random variable X is normally distributed, then the following statistic
results. Gosset circumvented this
ban by using the pen name "Student" X-IL
r= ----
to publish his findings. S
Vfl
has a t distribution with n 1 degrees of freedom. This expression has the same form as the
Z statistic in Equation (7.4) on page 236, except that S is used to estimate the unknown (J'.
Properties of the t Distribution
The t distribution is very similar in appearance to the standardized normal distribution. Both
distributions are symmetrical and bellshaped, with the mean and the median equal to zero.
However, the t distribution has more area in the tails and less in the center than does the
)64 \ ,,; I セ@ I 1 ( .
i\
:",: OIUr'1 e
ZセGtィャ@ 1 F -i I I ' 1 r ..,"
popu:atlol1 of 200 :::aJl.1,11': 6 7 11 11 J,
ordErs \fJ;th cr unk1;c;\'il", ,'5 。jャNセL@ 1 e t, 1 (I 1_ 1 (I . c' : _,.4, エNセLu@ セ[}@ I 7{ ,'.1
セ[。jャNイGZ@ : 10 c' Hi. ':0' '1 ,:1 ':; . I セOZ[NL@ '? 'J
SaJl.I,lE: ;3 1 0 UQセ@ 11 [i.:j j . Tセ@ 1,69. 1St:, tI:·, 48)
BwャiセGエZ@ Lセ@ 10 tit. 6'" 11 4:, 6_ (:1:3.50, '74.(:;81
SaJup 1 e 10 10 6_: セ@ HセLエNTQ@ 6E,.69',
セ[ャGQィNー・@ 11 10 71 L 4.0':, (61 .. 9:'" 30. :9,1
[ZG。jオセャ・@ 12 10 70, c,:: 10. <,2 (63.02/ 72.(3)
SalI;ple 13 10 6:,.51 8.16 HセL_V@ GWQセZLI@
tire graded with a base of 100. A tire with a grade of 200 Stock Exchange or the I\ASDAQ. In 2008, the S&P 500 \vas
should last twice as long, on average, as a tire graded with a down 38.5°/,), but what about financial compensation (salary,
base of 100. A consumer organization wants to estimate the bonuses, stock options, etc.) to the 500 CEOs that run the
actual tread wear index of a brand name of tires that claims companies? To learn more about the mean CEO compensa-
"graded 200" on the sidewall of the tire. A random sample tion, an alphabetical list of the 500 companies was obtained
of n 18 indicates a sample mean tread wear index of and ordered from I (3M) to 500 (Zions Bancorp). Next, the
195.3 and a sample standard deviation of 21.4. random number table was used to select a random number
a. Assuming that the popUlation of tread wear indexes is from 1 to 50. The number selected was 10. Then, the com-
normally distributed, construct a 95% confidence inter- panies numbered 10, 60, 110, 160, 210, 260, 310, 360, 410,
val estimate for the population mean tread wear index for and 460 were investigated and the total CEO compensation
tires produced by this manufacturer under this brand recorded. The data, stored in エZイセL@ are as follows:
name.
b. Do you think that the consumer organization should Number Company Compensation
accuse the manufacturer of producing tires that do not
meet the performance information provided on the side- 10 Aflac 10,783,232
wall of the tire? Explain. 60 Big Lots 9,862,262
c. Explain why an observed tread wear index of 210 for a 110 Comerica 4,108,245
particular tire is not unusual, even though it is outside the 160 EMC 13,874,262
confidence interval developed in (a). 210 HarleyDavidson 6,048,027
260 Kohl's 11,638,049
8.18 The file IMrm;nttTI contains the price for two movie 310 Molson Coors Brewing 5,558,499
tickets, with online service charges, large popcorn, and two 360 Pfizer 6,629,955
medium soft drinks at a sample of six theater chains: 410 SigmaAldrich 3,983,596
$36.15 S31.00 $35.05 $40.25 $33.75 $43.00 460 United Parcel Service 5,168,664
Source: Data extracted/rolll K. KelZl'. "The Multiplex Under Siege." Source: Dala eXlracted/i'O/1/ D. Jones and B. Hansen, "CEO Pay Dives
The WalJ Street Journal, December 2425. 2005. pp. Pl. P5. in a Rough 2008," www.usatoday.com. May J. 2009.
x 35
p = 0.175, and with a 90";;, level of confide nee Z" 2 1.645
!1 200
175)(0.825)
= 0.175 ± (1.645) MNセ
200
0.175 ± (1.645)( 0.0269)
= 0.175 :t: 0.0442
b. Construct a 9YYC) confidence interval estimate for the B.32 In a survey of2.395 adults. 1,916 reported that emails
population proportion of mothers employed full time are easy to misinterpret but only 1,269 reported that telephone
who would take a pay cut to spend more time with their conversations are easy to misinterpret (extracted from "Open
kids. to Misinterpretation." USA Today, July 17,2007. p. 1 D).
c. Write a short summary of the information derived from a. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for the
(a) and (b). population proportion of adults who report that emails
are easy to misinterpret.
8.30 Have you ever negotiated a pay raise? According to an b. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for the
Accenture survey, 52% of U.S. workers have (1. Yang and population proportion of adults who report that telephone
K. Carter, "Have You Ever Negotiated a Pay Raise?", conversations are easy to misinterpret.
"Snapshots," w"\\'W.usatoday.com, May 22, 2009). c. Compare the results of (a) and (b).
a. Suppose that the survey had a sample size of n 500.
Construct a 95% confidence interval for the proportion B.33 The utility of mobile devices raises new questions
of all U.S. workers who have negotiated a pay raise. about the intrusion of work into personal life. I n a survey by
b. Based on (a), can you claim that more than half of all CareerJournal.com (data extracted from P. Kitchen, "Can't
U.S. workers have negotiated a pay raise? Turn It Off," Newsday, October 20, 2006, pp. F4F5), 158
c. Repeat parts (a) and (b), assuming that the survey had a of 473 employees responded that they typically took work
sample size of n 5,000. with them on vacation, and 85 responded that there are
d. Discuss the effect of sample size on confidence interval unwritten and unspoken expectations that they stay con-
estimation. nected during vacation.
a. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for the
8.31 In a survey of 1,000 airline travelers, 760 responded population proportion of employees who typically take
that the airline fee that is most unreasonable is additional work with them on vacation.
charges to redeem points/miles (extracted from "Which b. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for the
Airline Fee Is Most Unreasonable?" USA Today, December 2, population proportion of employees who said that there
2008, p. B I). Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate are unwritten and unspoken expectations that they stay
for the population proportion of airline travelers who think connected during vacation.
that the airline fee that is most unreasonable is additional c. Interpret the intervals in (a) and (b).
charges to redeem points/miles. d. Explain the difference in the results in (a) and (b).
8.4 Determining Sample Size
In each confidence interval developed so far in this chapter, the sample size was reported along
with the results, with little discussion of the width of the resulting confidence interval. In the
business world, sample sizes are determined prior to data collection to ensure that the confi-
dence interval is narrow enough to be useful in making decisions. Determining the proper sam-
ple size is a complicated procedure, subject to the constraints of budget, time, and the amount
of acceptable sampling error. In the Saxon Home Improvement example, if you want to estimate
the mean dollar amount of the sales invoices, you must determine in advance how large a sam-
pling error to allow in estimating the population mean. You must also determine, in advance, the
level of confidence (i.e., 90%, 95%, or 99%) to use in estimating the population parameter.
x
The amount added to or subtracted from is equal to half the width of the interval. This
<Ill this context. some statisticians quantity represents the amount of imprecision in the estimate that results from sampling error. 2
refer to e as the margin of error. The sampling error, e, is defined as
u
e
vn
8.4 Determining Sample Size 273
Because the general rule is to round the sample size up to the next whole integer to slightly
oversatisfy the criteria, a sample size of 100 is needed. Thus, the sample size needed to satisfy
the requirements of the company, based on the estimated proportion, desired confidence level.
and sampling error, is equal to the sample size taken on page 267. The actual confidence interval
is narrower than required because the sample proportion is 0.10, whereas 0.15 was used for 1T
in Equation (8.5). Figure 8.14 shows a worksheet solution for determining the sample size.
FIGURE 8.14
1 For the Proportion of InError Sale. Invoite.
Worksheet for determining
2
sample size for estimating セ@ Mセ@
セッュ@ Mセ⦅イ@
the proportion of sales
invoices with errors for the '':, Sam ling Error
Saxon Home Improvement
Company
8 ]ᄋMLセエ・⦅c。ャ」オゥAョウ ____ J
the Figure B. 14 displays the 9 Z Value セ@ 1.9600' =NORMSINV((l 86)/2)
(1.645 )2(0.50 )(0.50)
(0.05)2
1T,
270.6
;est
his Therefore, you need a sample of 271 office workers to estimate the population proportion to
111- within ±0.05 with 90% confidence.
,ill
Ian
he
)r-
IProblems for Section 8.4
1at LEARNING THE BASICS 8.37 If you want to be 95% confident of estimating the
ith 8.34 If you want to be 95% confident of estimating the popu- population proportion to within a sampling error of ±0.02
lation mean to within a sampling error of ±5 and the standard and there is historical evidence that the population propor-
deviation is assumed to be 15, what sample size is required? tion is approximately OAO, what sample size is needed?
A prc\ious study indicatcs that the standard dC\iatiol1 is 8.45 What proportion of American" gel most of their ョ」|セ@
approximately $400. from the Internet'? According to a poll conducted by PC\\
a. How largc a sample is necessary? Research Center, 40% get most of their news from the
b. II' management wants to be correct to \vithin ± $25, how Internet (data extracted from "Drill Down." The Nell" hwk
many employees need to be selected? Tillles. January 5. 2009. p. 83).
a. To conduct a follo\Nup study that would providc 95".,)
8.39 If the manager of a paint supply store wants to esti-
confidence that the point estimate is correct to within
mate, with 95'% confidence. the mean amount of paint in a
±0.04 of the population proportion, how large a sample
Igallon can to within ±O.004 gallon and also assumes that the
size is required'?
standard deviation is 0.02 gallon, what sample size is needed?
b. To conduct a followup study that would provide 99%
8.40 If a quality control manager wants to estimate, with confidence that the point estimate is correct to within
95% confidence, the mean life of light bulbs to within ±20 ±0.04 of the population proportion, how many people
hours and also assumes that the population standard devia- need to be sampled?
tion is 100 hours, how many light bulbs need to be selected? c. To conduct a followup study that would provide 95"ij
confidence that the point estimate is correct to within
8.41 If the inspection division of a county weights and
±0.02 of the population proportion, how large a sample
measures department wants to estimate the mean amount of
size is required?
softdrink fill in 2liter bottles to within ±O.O I liter with
d. To conduct a followup study that would provide 99%
95% confidence and also assumes that the standard devia-
confidence that the point estimate is correct to within
tion is 0.05 liter, what sample size is needed?
±0.02 of the population proportion, how many people
8.42 A consumer group wants to estimate the mean electric need to be sampled?
bill for the month of July for singlefamily homes in a large e. Discuss the effects on sample size requirements of chang-
city. Based on studies conducted in other cities, the standard ing the desired confidence level and the acceptable sam-
deviation is assumed to be $25. The group wants to estimate, pling error.
with 99% confidence, the mean bill for July to within ± $5.
8.46 A survey of 1,000 adults was conducted in March
a. What sample size is needed?
2009 concerning "green practices." In response to the
b. If 95% confidence is desired., how many homes need to
question of what was the most beneficial thing to do for
be selected?
the environment, 28% said buying renewable energy, 19'%
8.43 An advertising agency that serves a major radio said using greener transportation, and 7% said selecting
station wants to estimate the mean amount of time that minimal or reduced packaging (data extracted from
the station's audience spends listening to the radio daily. "Environmentally Friendly Choices," USA Today, March 31,
From past studies, the standard deviation is estimated as 2009. p. D 1). Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate
45 minutes. of the popUlation proportion of who said that the most ben-
a. What s ample size is needed if the agency wants to be eficial thing to do for the environment was
90% confident of being correct to within ± 5 minutes? a. buy renewable energy.
b. If99% confidence is desired., how many listeners need to b. use greener transportation.
be selected? c. select minimal or reduced packaging.
d. You have been asked to update the results of this study.
8.44 A growing niche in the restaurant business is gourmet-
Determine the sample size necessary to estimate, with
casual breakfast, lunch, and brunch. Chains in this group
95% confidence, the popUlation proportions in (a) through
include Le Peep, Good Egg, Eggs & I, First Watch, and Eggs
(c) to within ±0.02.
Up Grill. The mean perperson check for First Watch is
approximately $7, and the mean perperson check for Eggs 8.47 In a study of 500 executives, 315 stated that their
Up Grill is $6.50 (data extracted from J. Hayes, company informally monitored social networking sites to
"Competition Heats Up as Breakfast Concepts Eye Growth," stay on top of information related to their company (data
n。ャOッョZセ@ Restaurant News, April 24,2006, pp. 8,66). extracted from "Checking Out the Buzz," USA Todm', June
a. Assuming a standard deviation of $2.00, what sample 26,2009, p. IB).
size is needed to estimate, with 95% confidence, the a. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of
mean perperson check for Good Egg to within ± $0.25? companies that informally monitored social networking
b. Assuming a standard deviation of $2.50, what sample sites to stay on top of information related to their company.
size is needed to estimate, with 95% confidence, the h. Interpret the interval constructed in (a).
mean perperson check for Good Egg to within ±$0.25? c. If you wanted to conduct a followup study to estimate the
c. Assuming a standard deviation of $3.00, what sample population proportion of companies that informally mon-
size is needed to estimate, with 95% confidence, the itored social networking sites to stay on top of informa-
mean perperson check for Good Egg to within ± SO.25? tion related to their company to within ±O.O I with 95%
d. Discuss the effect of variation on the sample size needed. confidence, how many executives would you survey?
286 CHAPTER R Confidence Interval Estimation
Suppose that the personnel director also wishes to take a tics of her customers. In particular, she decides to focus on
survey in a branch office. Answer these questions: two variables: the amount of money spent by customers and
c. What sample size is needed to have 95% confidence in whether the customers own only one dog, only one cat, or
estimating the population mean absenteeism to within more than one dog and/or cat. The results from a sample of
± 1.5 days if the population standard deviation is esti- 70 customers are as follows:
mated to be 4.5 days? • Amount of money spent: X $2 1.34, S $9.22.
d. How many clerical workers need to be selected to have • 37 customers own only a dog.
90% eonfidence in estimating the population proportion • 26 eustomers own only a cat.
to within ±0.075 if no previous estimate is available? • 7 customers own more than one dog and/or cat.
e. Based on (c) and (d), what sample size is needed if a sin- a. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for the
gle survey is being conducted? population mean amount spent in the pet supply store.
b. Construct a 90% confidence interval estimate for the
8.71 The market research director for Dotty's Department population proportion of customers who own only a cat.
Store wants to study women's spending on cosmetics. A The branch manager of another outlet (Store 2) wishes to
survey of the store's customers is designed in order to esti- conduct a similar survey in his store. The manager does not
mate the proportion of women who purchase their cosmet- have access to the information generated by the manager of c
ics primarily from Dotty's Department Store and the mean Store I. Answer the following questions:
yearly amount that women spend on cosmetics. A previous c. What sample size is needed to have 95% confidence of
survey found that the standard deviation of the amount s
estimating the population mean amount spent in this store a
women spend on cosmetics in a year is approximately $18. to within ± $1.50 if the standard deviation is estimated to Sl
a. What sample size is needed to have 99% confidence of be $10? a1
estimating the population mean to within ± $5? d. How many customers need to be selected to have 90% f(
b. How many of the store's credit card holders need to be confidence of estimating the population proportion of
selected to have 90% confidence of estimating the popu-
a.
customers who own only a cat to within ±0.045?
lation proportion to within ±0.045? e. Based on your answers to (c) and (d), how large a sample
8.72 The branch manager of a nationwide bookstore chain should the manager take? b.
(located near a college campus) wants to study characteris- 8.74 Scarlett and Heather, the owners of an upscale restau-
tics of her store's customers. She decides to focus on two rant in Dayton, Ohio, want to study the dining characteristics 8.
variables: the amount of money spent by customers and oftheir customers. They decide to focus on two variables: the pa
whether the customers would consider purchasing educa- amount of money spent by customers and whether customers tic
tional DVDs related to graduate preparation exams, such as order dessert. The results from a sample of 60 customers are ViE
the GMAT, GRE, or LSAT. The results from a sample of 70 as follows: est
customers are as follows: • Amount spent: X == $38.54,S = $7.26. Wil
• Amount spent: X == $28.52, S == $11.39. • 18 customers purchased dessert. bel
• 28 customers stated that they would consider purchasing a. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for the a.
the educational DVDs. population mean amount spent per customer in the Us
a. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for the restaurant. wit
population mean amount spent in the bookstore. b. Construct a 90% confidence interval estimate for the pop-
b. Construct a 90% confidence interval estimate for the ulation proportion of customers who purchase dessert.
population proportion of customers who would consider Jeanine, the owner of a competing restaurant, wants to
purchasing educational DVDs. conduct a similar survey in her restaurant. Jeanine does not In J
Assume that the branch manager of another store in the chain have access to the information that Scarlett and Heather mel
(also located close to a college campus) wants to conduct a have obtained from the survey they conducted. Answer the was
similar survey in his store. Answer the following questions: following questions: the
c. What sample size is needed to have 95% confidence of c. What sample size is needed to have 95% confidence of dete
estimating the population mean amount spent in this estimating the population mean amount spent in her (anc
store to within ± $2 if the standard deviation is assumed restaurant to within ± $1.50, assuming that the standard
to be $10'1 deviation is estimated to be $8'1 $1
d. How many customers need to be selected to have 90% con- d. How many customers need to be selected to have 90% b. C
fidence of estimating the population proportion who would confidence of estimating the population proportion of u
consider purchasing the educational DVDs to within ±0.04? customers who purchase dessert to within ±0.04? c. C
e. Based on your answers to (c) and (d), how large a sample e. Based on your answers to (c) and (d), how large a sample p<
should the manager take? should Jeanine take? d.C
8.73 The branch manager of an outlet (Store I) of a nation- 8.75 The manufacturer of "Ice Melt" claims its product will p(
wide chain of pet supply stores wants to study characteris- melt snow and ice at temperatures as low as 0° Fahrenheit. gl
Chapter Review Problems 287
n A representative for a large chain of hardware stores is inter- e. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for the
d ested in testing this claim. The chain purchases a large ship- total difference between the amount reimbursed and the
ment of 5pound bags for distribution. The representative amount that the auditor determined should have been
f wants to know, with 95% confidence and within ±0.05, what reimbursed.
proportion of bags of Ice Melt perform the job as claimed by
the manufacturer.
8.78 A home furnishings store that sells bedroom furniture
is conducting an endofmonth inventory of the beds (mat-
a. How many bags does the representative need to test? What
tress, bed spring, and frame) in stock. An auditor for the
assumption should be made concerning the population
store wants to estimate the mean value of the beds in stock
proportion? (This is called destructive testing; i.e., the
at that time. She wants to have 99% confidence that her esti-
product being tested is destroyed by the test and is then
mate of the mean value is correct to within ± $1 00. On the
unavailable to be sold.)
basis of past experience, she estimates that the standard
b. Suppose that the representative tests 50 bags, and 42 of
deviation of the value of a bed is $200.
them do the job as claimed. Construct a 95% confidence
a. How many beds should she select?
interval estimate for the population proportion that will
b. Using the sample size selected in (a), an audit was con-
do the job as claimed.
ducted, with the following results:
c. How can the representative use the results of (b) to deter-
mine whether to sell the Ice Melt product? x = $1,654.27 S = $184.62
8.76 An auditor needs to estimate the percentage of times Construct a 99% confidence interval estimate for the total
a company fails to follow an internal control procedure. A
value of the beds in stock at the end of the month if there
sample of 50 from a population of 1,000 items is selected,
were 258 beds in stock.
and in 7 instances, the internal control procedure was not
followed. 8.79 A quality characteristic of interest for a teabag-
B. Construct a 90% onesided confidence interval estimate filling process is the weight of the tea in the individual
for the population proportion of items in which the inter- bags. In this example, the label weight on the package indi-
nal control procedure was not followed. cates that the mean amount is 5.5 grams of tea in a bag. If
b. If the tolerable exception rate is 0.15, what should the the bags are underfill ed, two problems arise. First, cus-
auditor conclude? tomers may not be able to brew the tea to be as strong as
they wish. Second, the company may be in violation of the
8.77 An auditor for a government agency needs to evaluate
truthinIabeling laws. On the other hand, if the mean
payments for doctors' office visits paid by Medicare in a par-
amount of tea in a bag exceeds the label weight, the com-
ticular zip code during the month of June. A total of 25,056
pany is giving away product. Getting an exact amount of
visits occurred during June in this area. The auditor wants to
tea in a bag is problematic because of variation in the tem-
estimate the total amount paid by Medicare to within ± $ 5
perature and humidity inside the factory, differences in the
with 95% confidence. On the basis of past experience, she
density of the tea, and the extremely fast filling operation
believes that the standard deviation is approximately $30.
of the machine (approximately 170 bags per minute). The
B. What sample size should she select?
following data (stored in セI are the weights, in
Using the sample size selected in (a), an audit is conducted,
grams, of a sample of 50 tea bags produced in one hour by
with the following results.
a single machine:
Amount of Reimbursement
5.65 5.44 5.42 5.40 5.53 5.34 5.54 5.45 5.52 5.41
x = $93.70 s = $34.55 5.57 5.40 5.53 5.54 5.55 5.62 5.56 5.46 5.44 5.51
In 12 of the office visits, an incorrect amount of reimburse- 5.47 5.40 5.47 5.61 5.53 5.32 5.67 5.29 5.49 5.55
ment was provided. For the 12 office visits in which there 5.77 5.57 5.42 5.58 5.58 5.50 5.32 5.50 5.53 5.58
was an incorrect reimbursement, the differences between 5.61 5.45 5.44 5.25 5.56 5.63 5.50 5.57 5.67 5.36
the amount reimbursed and the amount that the auditor
a. Construct a 99% confidence interval estimate for the
determined should have been reimbursed were as follows
popUlation mean weight of the tea bags.
(and stored in IMZG:):
b. Is the company meeting the requirement set forth on
$17 $25 $14 $10 $20 $40 $35 $30 $28 $22 $15 $5 the label that the mean amount of tea in a bag is 5.5
grams?
b. Construct a 90% confidence interval estimate for the pop-
c. Do you think the assumption needed to construct the con-
ulation proportion of reimbursements that contain errors.
fidence interval estimate in (a) is valid?
c. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for the
population mean reimbursement per office visit. 8.80 A manufacturing company produces steel housings
d. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for the for electrical equipment. The main component part of the
population total amount of reimbursements for this geo- housing is a steel trough that is made from a 14gauge steel
graphic area in June. coil. It is produced using a 250ton progressive punch press
9. I Fundamentals of H y pothesisTesting Methodology 309
Irts c. What assumption must you make about the population 9.29 One of the major measures of the quality of service
to distribution in order to conduct the t test in (a) and (b)'? provided by any organization is the speed with which it
4). d. Because the sample size is 6, do you need to be con- responds to customer complaints. A large familyheld depart-
the cerned about the shape of the population distribution ment store selling furniture and flooring, including carpet,
ike when conducting the t test in (a)? Explain. had undergone a major expansion in the past several years.
ed, 9.27 In New York State, savings banks are permitted to sell In particular, the flooring department had expanded from
2 installation crews to an installation supervisor, a measurer,
a form of life insurance called savings bank life insurance
and 15 installation crews. The store had the business objec-
(SBLI). The approval process consists of underwriting, which
tive of improving its response to complaints. The variable of
includes a review of the application, a medical information
interest was defined as the number of days between when the
bureau check, possible requests for additional medical infor-
complaint was made and when it was resolved. Data were
mation and medical exams, and a policy compilation stage in
collected from 50 complaints that were made in the last year.
which the policy pages are generated and sent to the bank for
The data were stored in mrn:rt;, and are as follows:
delivery. The ability to deliver approved policies to customers
the in a timely manner is critical to the profitability of this ser- 54 5 35 137 31 27 152 2 123 81 74 27
:es. vice. During a period of one month, a random sample of 27 II 19 126 lID 110 29 61 35 94 31 26 5
the approved policies is selected, and the total processing time, in 12 4 165 32 29 28 29 26 25 14 13
an- days, is recorded (and stored in lIiB/IfIM:):
13 IO 5 27 4 52 30 22 36 26 20 23
73 19 16 64 28 28 31 90 60 56 31 56 22 18 33 68
fer-
45 48 17 17 17 91 92 63 50 51 69 16 17 a. The installation supervisor claims that the mean number
.)
R. In the past, the mean processing time was 45 days. At the of days between the receipt of a complaint and the reso-
0.05 level of significance, is there evidence that the mean lution of the complaint is 20 days. At the 0.05 level of
)ns
processing time has changed from 45 days? significance, is there evidence that the claim is not true
for
b. What assumption about the population distribution is (i.e., that the mean number of days is different from 20)?
ove
needed in order to conduct the t test in (a)? b. What assumption about the population distribution is
;vas
c. Construct a boxplot or a normal probability plot to eval- needed in order to conduct the t test in (a)?
100
uate the assumption made in (b). c. Construct a boxplot or a normal probability plot to eval-
lffi-
d. Do you think that the assumption needed in order to con- uate the assumption made in (b).
duct the t test in (a) is valid? Explain. d. Do you think that the assumption needed in order to con-
dif-
duct the t test in (a) is valid? Explain.
セ・NI@ 9.28 The following data (in Di) represent the amount of
9.30 A manufacturing company produces steel housings
softdrink filled in a sample of 50 consecutive 2liter bot-
for electrical equipment. The main component part of the
ons tles. The results, listed horizontally in the order of being
housing is a steel trough that is made out of a 14gauge steel
for filled, were
coil. It is produced using a 250ton progressive punch press
ove
2.109 2.086 2.066 2.075 2.065 2.057 2.052 2.044 2.036 2.038 with a wipedown operation that puts two 90degree forms
\Vas
2.031 2.029 2.025 2.029 2.023 2.020 2.0\5 2.014 2.013 2.014 in the flat steel to make the trough. The distance from one
100
side of the form to the other is critical because of weather-
1I1l- 2.012 2.012 2.012 2.010 2.005 2.003 1.999 1.996 1.997 1.992
proofing in outdoor applications. The company requires that
1.994 1.986 1.984 1.981 1.973 1.975 1.971 1.969 1.966 1.967 the width of the trough be between 8.31 inches and 8.61
dif- 1.963 1.957 1.951 1.951 1.947 1.941 1.941 1.938 1.908 1.894 inches. The file セ contains the widths of the troughs, in
ce.)
a. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there evidence that inches, for a sample of n = 49:
the mean amount of soft drink filled is different from 8.312 8.343 8.317 8.383 8.348 8.410 8.351 8.373 8.481 8.422
for
2.0 liters? 8.476 8.382 8.484 8.403 8.414 8.419 8.385 8.465 8.498 8.447
)rn,
b. Determine the pvalue in (a) and interpret its meaning. 8.436 8.413 8.489 8.414 8.481 8.415 8.479 8.429 8.458 8.462
Iter
c. In (a), you assumed that the distribution of the amount of
8.460 8.444 8.429 8.460 8.412 8.420 8.410 8.405 8.323 8.420
soft drink filled was normally distributed. Evaluate this
assumption by constructing a boxplot or a normal proba- 8.396 8.447 8.405 8.439 8.411 8.427 8.420 8.498 8.409
ge, bility plot. a. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there evidence that the
d. Do you think that the assumption needed in order to con- mean width of the troughs is different from 8.46 inches?
that duct the t test in (a) is valid? Explain. b. What assumption about the population distribution is
vice e. Examine the values of the 50 bottles in their sequential needed in order to conduct the t test in (a)?
" is order, as given in the problem. Is there a pattern to the c. Evaluate the assumption made in (b).
results? If so, what impact might this pattern have on the d. Do you think that the assumption needed in order to con-
g. validity of the results in (a)? duct the t test in (a) is valid? Explain.
,
!
I
I
I Problems for Section 9.3
: I
I LEARNING THE BASICS
9.34 In a onetail hypothesis test \\here you reject 1111 only
b. Determine the pvalue and interpret its meaning.
c. C 0l1lpare the results in (a) and (b) to those of Problem
II in the upper tail, what is the pvalue jf ZSIAT = + 2.00? 9.25 (a) and (b) on page 314.
;II 9.35 In Problem 9.34. what is your statistical decision if SELF 9.46 The Glen Valley Steel Company manufac_
::"'7f':!:' tures stee I bars. I f the production process is
you test the null hypothesis at the 0.05 level of significance?
working properly, it turns oUi steel bars that are normally
9.36 In a onetail hypothesis test where you reject Hu only distributed with mean length of at least 2.8 feet. Longer
in the /rm'er tail, what is the pvalue if ZSlAT 1.38? steel bars can be used or altered. but shorter bars must
I I 9.37 In Problem 9.36, what is your statistical decision if be scrapped. You select a sample of 25 bars; the mean
length is 2.73 feet, and the sample standard deviation is
I you test the null hypothesis at the 0.01 level of significance?
0.20 foot.
I
!
9.38 In a onetail hypothesis test where you reject Ho only
in the lOIre,. tail, what is the pva)ue if ZST.4T + 1.38"
a. If you test the null hypothesis at the 0.05 level of signifi-
i
'I'
cance, what decision do you make using the critical value
9.39 In Problem 9.38, what is the statistical decision if you approach to hypothesis testing?
Ij i
I
test the null hypothesis at the 0.0 I level of significance? b. If you test the null hypothesis at the 0.05 level of signifi-
cance, what decision do you make using the pvalue
9.40 In a onetail hypothesis test where you reject Ho approach to hypothesis testing?
ill only in the IIpper tail, what is the critical value of the ttest
statistic with 10 degrees of freedom at the 0,0 I level of
c. Interpret the meaning of the pvalue in this problem.
d. Compare your conclusions in (a) and (b).
significance?
9.47 You arc the manager of a restaurant that delivers pizza
9.41 In Problem 9.40, what is your statistical decision if to college dormitory rooms. You have just changed your
tSIAT +2.39? delivery process in an effort to reduce the mean time
9.42 In a onetail hypothesis test where you reject Ho only between the order and completion of delivery from the cur-
in the lower tail, what is the critical value of the tSTAT test rent 25 minutes. A sample of 36 orders using the new deliv-
statistic with 20 degrees of freedom at the 0.01 level of ery process yields a sample mean of 22.4 minutes and a
signi ficance? sample standard deviation of 6 minutes.
a. Using the sixstep critical value approach, at the 0.05
9.43 In Problem 9.42, what is your statistical decision if level of significance, is there evidence that the popula-
I tSTAT l.l5? tion mean delivery time has been reduced below the pre-
vious population mean value of 25 minutes?
APPLYING THE CONCEPTS
I 9.44 In a recent year, the Federal Communications
Commission reported that the mean wait for repairs for
b. At the 0.05 level of significance, use the fivestep pvalue
approach.
c. Interpret the meaning of the pvalue in (b).
Verizon customers was 36.5 hours. In an effort to improve this d. Compare your conclusions in (a) and (b).
II
!, I i 1
f
service, suppose that a new repair service process was devel-
oped. This new process, used for a sample of 100 repairs,
9.48 Children in the United States account directly for
$36 billion in sales annually. When their indirect influence
resulted in a sample mean of 34.5 hours and a sample stan-
over product decisions from stereos to vacations is consid-
dard deviation of 11.7 hours.
ered, the total economic spending affected by children in the
a. Is there evidence that the population mean amount is less
United States is $290 billion. It is estimated that by age 10.
than 36.5 hours? (Use a 0.05 level of significance.)
a child makes an average of more than five trips a week to a
b. Determine the pvalue and interpret its meaning.
store (data extracted from M. E. Goldberg, G. 1. Gorn, L. A.
c. Compare the results in (a) and (b) to those of Problem
Peracchio, and G. Bamossy, "Understanding Materialism
9.24 (a) and (b) on page 314.
Among Youth," Journal of ConSlimer Psychology, 2003.
9.45 In a recent year, the Federal Communications 13(3), pp. 278288). Suppose that you want to prove that
Commission reported that the mean wait for repairs for children in your city average more than five trips a week to
AT&T customers was 25.3 hours. In an effort to improve this a store. Let fL represent the population mean number of
service, suppose that a new repair service process was devel- times children in your city make trips to a store.
oped. This new process, used for a sample of 100 repairs, a. State the null and alternative hypotheses.
resulted in a sample mean of 22.3 hours and a sample stan- b. Explain the meaning of the Type I and Type II errors in
dard deviation of 8.3 hours. the context of this scenario.
a. Is there evidence that the population mean amount is less c. Suppose that you carry out a similar study in the city in
than 25.3 hours? (Use a 0.05 level of significance.) which you live. You take a sample of ) 00 children and
9.4 Z Test of Hypothesis for the Proportion 321
find that the mean number of trips to the store is 5.4 7 and out was 9.52 minutes, with a sample standard deviation of
the sample standard deviation of the number of trips to 5.8 minutes.
the store is 1.6. At the 0.01 level of significance, is there a. At the 0.05 level of significance, using the critical value
evidence that the population mean number of trips to the approach to hypothesis testing, is there evidence that the
store is greater than 5 per week? population mean waiting time to check out is less than
d. Interpret the meaning of the p-value in (c). 10.73 minutes?
ac- b. At the 0.05 level of significance, using the p-value
9.49 The population mean waiting time to check out of a
IS approach to hypothesis testing, is there evidence that the
supermarket has been 10.73 minutes. Recently, in an effort
lly population mean waiting time to check out is less than
to reduce the waiting time, the supermarket has experi-
セ・イ@ 10.73 minutes?
'mented with a system in which there is a single waiting
LISt c. Interpret the meaning of the p-value in this problem.
line with multiple checkout servers. A sample of 100 cus-
'an d. Compare your conclusions in (a) and (b).
tomers was selected, and their mean waiting time to check
IS
fi-
ue
9.4 Z Test of Hypothesis for the Proportion
fi-
In some situations, you want to test a hypothesis about the proportion of events of interest in
ue
the population, 7T, rather than test the population mean. To begin, you select a random sample
and compute the sample proportion, p = X / n. You then compare the value of this statistic to
the hypothesized value of the parameter, 7T, in order to decide whether to reject the null hypoth-
esis. If the number of events of interest (X) and the number of events that are not of interest
za (n - X) are each at least five, the sampling distribution of a proportion approximately follows
ur a normal distribution. You use the Z test for the proportion given in Equation (9.3) to perform
ne the hypothesis test for the difference between the sample proportion, p, and the hypothesized
Ir- population proportion, 7T.
v
a
ZTEST FOR THE PROPORTION
)5
a- (9.3)
e-
where
Because t"TIl 3.04411 is less than 1.1\331, you rejcct the Ilull hypothesis, Ho (the jHalue
is 0.0070 0.(5). There is e\'idence that the mean delivery time is lower for the local pizza
restaurant than for the national pizza chain.
This conclusion is different from the one you reached in Example 10.1 on page 340 when
you used the pooledvariance f test for thcse data. By pairing the delivery times, you .'11\' able
to fOCLlS on the differences between the two pizza delivery services and not tbe variability cre.
ated by ordering pizzas at different times of day. The paired! test is a more powerful statistical
procedure that is better able to detect tbe difference between the two pizza delivery sen ices,
because you are controlling for tbe time of day they were ordered.
D±
or
(10.4)
Return to the example comparing mileage generated by reallife driving and by govern-
ment standards on page 348. Using Equation (lOA), l5 2.3444, SD = 2,8936, n 9, and
ta/2 = 2,306 (for 95% confidence and n I 8 degrees of freedom),
2.8936
2.3444 ± (2.306)-y19
2.3444 ± 2.2242
4.5686 $ J-LD $ 0,1202
Thus, with 95% confidence, the mean difference in gasoline mileage between the reallife
driving done by an AAA member and the driving done according to government standards is
between 4,5686 and 0.1202 miles per gallon, Because the interval estimate contains only
values less than zero, you can conclude that there is a difference in the population means, The
mean miles per gallon for the reallife driving done by an AAA member is less than the mean
miles per gallon for the driving done according to government standards,
iue . aroma, richness, and acidity. The following data (stored in a. At the 0.01 level of significance, is there evidence of a
:za セI display the summated ratingsaccumulated over all difference between the mean price of textbooks at the
four characteristics. local bookstore and Amazon.com?
len b. What assumption is necessary about the population dis-
::lIe tribution in order to perform this test?
re· c. Construct a 99% confidence interval estimate of the
cal BRAND mean difference in price. Interpret the interval.
es, EXPERT A B d. Compare the results of (a) and (c).
CC 24 26 10.23 In tough economic times, magazines and other media
S.E. 27 27 have trouble selling advertisements. Thus, one indicator of a
E.G. 19 22 weak economy is a reduction in the number of magazine
ns, B.L 24 27 pages devoted to advertisements. The file w「セG contains
CM. 22 25 the number of pages devoted to advertisements in May 2008
CN. 26 27 and May 2009 for 12 men's magazines (extracted from
G.N. 27 26 W. Levith, "Magazine Monitor," Media week, April 20,
R.M. 25 27 2009, p.53).
p.y. 22 23 a. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there evidence that
the mean number of pages devoted to advertisements in
men's magazines was higher in May 2008 than in May
2009'1
a. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there evidence of a h. What assumption is necessary about the population dis-
difference in the mean summated ratings between the two
tribution in order to perform this test?
brands?
c. Use a graphical method to evaluate the validity of the
b. What assumption is necessary about the population dis- assumption in (b).
tribution in order to perform this test?
d. Construct and interpret a 95% confidence interval esti-
c. Determine the pvalue in (a) and interpret its meaning. mate of the difference in the mean number of pages
d. Construct and interpret a 95% confidence interval esti- devoted to advertisements in men's magazines between
m· mate of the difference in the mean summated ratings
May 2008 and May 2009.
md between the two brands.
10.24 Multiple myeloma, or blood plasma cancer, is char-
10.21 In industrial settings, alternative methods often exist acterized by increased blood vessel formulation (angiogene-
for measuring variables of interest. The data in IMlt1llh,ji.\'l sis) in the bone marrow that is a predictive factor in sur-
(coded to maintain confidentiality) represent measurements vival. One treatment approach used for multiple myeloma is
inline that were collected from an analyzer during the pro- stem cell transplantation with the patient's own stem cells.
duction process and from an analytical lab (data extracted The following data (stored in mal) represent the bone
from M. Leitnaker, "Comparing Measurement Processes: marrow microvessel density for patients who had a com-
life Inline Versus Analytical Measurements," Quality Engineering, plete response to the stem cell transplant (as measured by
sis 13,20002001, pp. 293298). blood and urine tests). The measurements were taken imme-
,nly a. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there evidence of a diately prior to the stem cell transplant and at the time the
[he difference in the mean measurements inline and from an complete response was determined:
can analytical lab?
b. What assumption is necessary about the population dis-
tribution in order to perform this test?
c. Use a graphical method to evaluate the validity of the Patient Before After
assumption in (a). 158 284
1
d. Construct and interpret a 95% confidence interval esti- 2 189 214
mate of the difference in the mean measurements inline 3 202 101
lata
and from an analytical lab. 4 353 227
rec-
5 416 290
10.22 Can students save money by comparison shopping 6 426 176
for textbooks at Amazon.com? To investigate this possibil- 441 290
7
ity, a random sample of 19 textbooks used during the Spring
Source: Data extracted from S V Rajkllmar. R. Fonseca, T E. Witzig.
)ian 2009 semester at Miami University was selected. The prices M. A. Gertz, and P. R. Greipp. "Balle Marrow Angiogenesis in Patients
ma for these textbooks at both a local bookstore and through Achieving Complete Response After Stem Cell Transplantation/or
lely Amazon.com were recorded. The prices for the textbooks Multiple Myeloma." Leukemia, 1999. 13, pp. 469-472.
ste, are stored in セN@
I (),3 Comparing the ProportIOns of Two Independent Populations 359
on of
Irena- CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ESTIMATE FOR THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TWO
alter PROPORTIONS
The COMPUTE worksheet
of the Z Two Proportions
it is workbook computes the
)f(ion confidence interval estimate or
for the difference between
two proportions in columns
it is Dand E (not shown in Figure
on of 70,12 on page 357)
(10.6)
.Iue is
To construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for the population difference between the
proportion of guests who would return to the Beachcomber and who would return to the
Windsurfer, you use the results on page 356 or from Figure 10.12 on page 357:
154
PI XI = 163 = 0.7181 P2 = n2 262 = 0.5878
nl 227
Using Equation (10.6),
0.1303 ± (1.96)(0.0426)
0.1303 ± 0.0835
0.0468 :s:; (7T1 7T2):::;; 0.2138
Thus, you have 95% confidence that the difference between the population proportion of
guests who would return to the Beachcomber and the Windsurfer is between 0.0468 and
0.2138. In percentages, the difference is between 4.68% and 21.38%. Guest satisfaction is
higher at the Beachcomber than at the Windsurfer,
would be testing a new pain reliever, One group was told the the Center for the Digital Future of the University of セ@
; !
pain reliever they would be using cost $2.50 a pill, and the Southern California (data extracted from A. Mindlin, "Older
other group was told it cost only 10 cents a pil I. In reality, Email Users Favor Fast Replies," The Ne1\' York Times. July
the pills they were all about to take were simply sugar pills. 14, 2008, p. B3) reported that 70.7% of users over 70 years
The volunteers were given a light electric shock 011 the wrist. of age believe that email messages should be answered
Then the volunteers were given a sugar pill, and a short time quickly as compared to 53.6% of users 12 to 50 years old.
later they were shocked again. Of the volunteers who took Suppose that the survey was based on 1,000 users over
the expensive pill, 35 of the 41 said they felt less pain after- 70 years of age and 1,000 users 12 to 50 years old.
ward. Of the volunteers who took the cheap pill, 25 of the a. At the 0.0 I level of significance, is there evidence of a
41 said they felt less pain afterward (data extracted from significant difference between the two age groups that
R. Rubin, "Placebo Study Tests 'Costlier Is Better' Notion," believe that email messages should be answered
www.usatoday.com. March 5,2008). quickly'?
a. Set up the null and alternative hypotheses to try to prove b. Find the pvalue in (a) and interpret its meaning.
that people think an expensive pill works better than a
10.33 Are women more risk averse in the stock market?
cheap pill.
A sample of men and women were asked the following ques-
b. Conduct the hypothesis test defined in (a), using the 0.05
tion: "If both the stock market and a stock you owned
level of significance.
dropped 25% in three months, would you buy more shares
c. Does the result of your test in (b) make it appropriate to
while the price is low'?" (data extracted from "Women Are
claim that people think an expensive pill works better
More Risk Averse in the Stock Market," USA Today,
than a cheap pill?
September 25, 2006, p. I C). Of 965 women, 338 said yes.
10.31 Some people enjoy the anticipation of an upcoming Of 1,066 men, 554 said yes.
product or event and prefer to pay in advance and delay the a. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there evidence that 1
actual consumption/delivery date. In other cases, people do the proportion of women who would buy more shares J.'
not want a delay. An article in the Journal of Marketing while the price is low is less than the proportion of men? 4
1 '
Research reported on an experiment in which 50 individuals b. Find the pvalue in (a) and interpret its meaning. 1
jl were told that they had just purchased a ticket to a concert
10.34 An experiment was conducted to study the choices
and 50 were told that they had just purchased a personal dig-
made in mutual fund selection. Undergraduate and MBA
I ital assistant (PDA). The participants were then asked to
indicate their preferences for attending the concert or receiv-
students were presented with different S&P 500 index funds
that were identical except for fees. Suppose that 100 under-
ing the PDA. Did they prefer tonight or tomorrow, or would
i graduate students and 100 MBA students were selected.
I i they prefer to wait two to four weeks'? The individuals were
Partial results are shown in the following table:
II r
told to ignore their schedule constraints in order to better
I measure their willingness to delay the consumption/delivery
of their purchase. The following table gives partial results of STUDENT GROUP
the study:
FUND Undergraduate MBA
of a. Is there evidence of a significant difference in the propor- c. Construct and interpret a 95%, confidence interval esti-
Ider tion that get their news primarily from newspapers mate for the difference between the population propor-
July between those respondents 36 to 50 years old and those tion of respondents who get their news primarily from
セ。イウ@ above 50 years old? (Use a 0.05.) newspapers between those respondents 36 to 50 years old
:red b. Determine the p-value in (a) and interpret its meaning. and those above 50 years old.
old.
IVer
)f a
that 10.. 4 FTest for the Ratio of Two Variances
:red Often you need to determine whether two independent populations have the same variability.
By testing variances, you can detect differences in the variability in two independent popula-
tions. One important reason to test for the difference between the variances of two populations
<et? is to determine whether to use the pooled-variance f test (which assumes equal variances) or
les- the separate-variance f test (which does not assume equal variances) while comparing the
ned means of two independent populations.
:ires The test for the difference between the variances of two independent populations is based
Are on the ratio of the two sample variances. If you assume that each population is normally dis-
lay, tributed, then the ratio STJ sセ@ follows the F distribution (see Table E.5). The critical values of
yes. the F distribution in Table E.5 depend on the degrees of freedom in the two samples. The
degrees of freedom in the numerator of the ratio are for the first sample, and the degrees of
that freedom in the denominator are for the second sample. The first sample taken from the first
ues population is defined as the sample that has the larger sample variance. The second sample
len? taken from the second population is the sample with the smaller sample variance. Equation
(10.7) defines the F test for the ratio of two variances.
ices
lBA FTEST STATISTIC FOR TESTING THE RATIO OF TWO VARIANCES
mds The FST4T test statistic is equal to the variance of sample I (the larger sample variance)
der- divided by the variance of sample 2 (the smaller sample variance).
ted.
Sy
FSTAT = (JO.7)
sセ@
where
IA
sf = variance of sample I (the larger sample variance)
sセ@ variance of sample 2 (the smaller sample variance)
Wh,r n] size of sample I
s,
n2 = size of sample 2
The F!>TAT test statistic follows an F distribution with n] 1 and 112 - 1 degrees of
freedom.
; age
mto
mI. For a given level of significance, a, to test the null hypothesis of equality of population
200 variances:
200
lents
IC\\'S
against the alternative hypothesis that the two population variances are not equal:
,verc
. ..,.2 -/.. 2
H I'VIr(f2
ers.
Chapter Re\'ie\,' Problems 369
b. Define a Type I and Type II error for the hypotheses in (a). a. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there a difference in
e:. What type of statistical test should you use? the variance of the study time for male students and
d. What assumptions are needed to perform the test you female students?
selected? b. Using the results of (a), which t test is appropriate for
e. Repeat (a) through (d) for research hypothesis 2. comparing the mean study time for male and female
students?
10.59 A study conducted in March 2009 found that about
c. At the 0.05 level of significance, conduct the test selected
half of U.S. adults trusted the U.S. government more than
in (b).
U.S. business to solve the economic problems of the United
d. Write a short summary of your findings.
States. However, when the population is subdivided by polit-
ical party affiliation, the results are very different. The study 10.62 Two professors wanted to study how students from
1.7) showed that 72% of Democrats trusted the government their two universities compared in their capabilities of using
more. but only 29% of Republicans trusted the government Excel spreadsheets in undergraduate information systems
more. Suppose that you are in charge of updating the study. courses (data extracted from H. Howe and M. G. Simkin,
You will take a national sample of Democrats and a national "Factors Affecting the Ability to Detect Spreadsheet Errors,"
sample of Republicans and then try to use the results to Decision Sciences Journal ofInnovative Education, January
show statistical evidence that the proportion of Democrats 2006, pp. 101122). A comparison of the student demo-
trusting the government more than business is greater than graphics was also performed. One school is a state university
the proportion of Republicans trusting the government more in the western United States, and the other school is a state
than business. university in the eastern United States, The following table
a. What are the nu1l and alternative hypotheses? contains information regarding the ages of the students:
b. What is a Type I error in the context of this study?
c. What is a Type II error in the context of this study? Sample Standard
10.60 The American Society for Quality (ASQ) conducted School Size Mean Deviation
a salary survey of all its members. ASQ members work in Western 93 23.28 6.29
'0 all areas of manufacturing and servicerelated institutions, Eastern 135 21.16 1.32
with a common theme of an interest in quality. Two job titles
associated with high salaries are manager and master black
belt. (In Section 17.7, you will learn that a master black belt a. Using a 0.0 I level of significance, is there evidence of a
is a person who takes a leadership and training role in a Six difference in the variances of the age of students at the
Sigma quality improvement initiative.) Descriptive statistics western school and at the eastern school?
concerning salaries for these two job titles are given in the b. Discuss the practical implications of the test performed in
following table: (a). Address, specifically, the impact equal (or unequal)
variances in age has on teaching an undergraduate infor-
Standard mation systems course.
Sample
Job Title Size Mean Deviation c. To test for a difference in the mean age of students, is it
セ、@t most appropriate to use the pooledvariance t test or the
ns? Manager 2,228 85,551 24,109 separatevariance t test?
Master black belt 134 113,385 24,738 The following table contains information regarding the
Source: Data extracted from I. E. AI/en, "Sa/ary Survey: Seeing Greell," years of spreadsheet usage of the students:
Quality Progress, December 2008, pp. 20-53.
for
セエ。イ@
a. Using a 0,05 level of significance, is there a difference in Sample Standard
"A School Size Mean Years Deviation
,nie the variability of salaries between managers and master
black belts? Western 93 2.6 2.4
in
b. Based on the result of (a), which t test defined in Section Eastern 135 4.0 2.1
ess
10.1 is appropriate for comparing mean salaries?
セ」エᆳ
!ral
c. Using a 0.05 level of significance, is there a difference d. Using a 0.01 level of significance, is there evidence of a
between the mean salary of managers and the mean
difference in the variances of the years of spreadsheet
salary of master black belts?
the usage of students at the western school and at the eastern
10.61 Do male and female students study the same amount school?
lyS- per week? In 2007, 58 sophomore business students were e. Based on the results of (d), use the most appropriate test
surveyed at a large university that has more than 1,000 soph- to determine, at the 0.0 I level of significance, whether
ter- omore business students each year. The file セ[ con- there is evidence of a difference in the mean years of
セイウN@ tains the gender and the number of hours spent studying in spreadsheet usage of students at the western school and
a typical week for the sampled students. at the eastern school.
J 3.2 Determining the Simple Linear Regression Equation 481
Zjーセ「ャ・ュウ@ for Section 13.2
エセ :
Bゥセ@ LEARNING THE BASICS 13.5 Circulation is the lifeblood of the publishing busi-
" 13.1 Fitting a straight line to a set of data yields the follow- ness. The larger the sales of a magazine, the more it can
ing prediction line: charge advertisers. However, a circulation gap has appeared
between the publishers' reports of magazines' newsstand
sales and subsequent audits by the Audit Bureau of
Circulations. The file t:!Jnnrrnfip contains the reported and
.,:\ •. Interpret the meaning of the Yintercept, hu. audited newsstand yearly sales (in thousands) for the
b. Interpret the meaning of the slope, b j • following 10 magazines:
c. Predict the value of Y for X = 3.
13.2 If the values of X in Problem 13.1 range from 2 to 25, Magazine Reported (X) Audited (J')
should you use this model to predict the mean value of Y YAt 621.0 299.6
o when X equals CosmoGirl 359.7 207.7
. a.3? Rosie 530.0 325.0
b. 3? Playboy 492.1 336.3
c.O? Esquire 70.5 48.6
d.24? TeenPeopie 567.0 400.3
13.3 Fitting a straight line to a set of data yields the follow- More 125.5 91.2
ing prediction line: Spin 50.6 39.1
Vogue 353.3 268.6
Vi = 16 0.5Xi Elle 263.6 214.3
8. Interpret the meaning of the Y intercept, boo Source: Data extracted from M. Rose, "In Fight for Ads, Publishers
Often Overstate Theil' Sales," The Wall Street Journal. August 6, 2003,
b. Interpret the meaning of the slope, b l • pp. AI, A 10.
c. Predict the value of Y for X = 6.
13.3 Measures of Variation
When using the leastsquares method to determine the regression eoefficients for a set of data,
you need to compute three measures of variation. The first measure, the total sum of squares
(SST), is a measure of variation of the Yj values around their mean, Y. The total variation, or
total sum of squares, is subdivided into explained variation and unexplained variation.
The explained variation, or regression sum of squares (SSR) , represents variation due to the
13.3 Measures of Variation 487
This standard error of the estimate, equal to 0.9664 millions of dollars (i.e., $966,400), is
labeled Standard Error in the Figure 13.8 worksheet results. The standard error of the estimate
represents a measure of the variation around the prediction line. It is measured in the same
units as the dependent variable Y. The interpretation of the standard error of the estimate is
similar to that of the standard deviation. Just as the standard deviation measures variability
around the mean, the standard error of the estimate measures variability around the prediction
line. For Sunflowers Apparel, the typical difference between actual annual sales at a store and
the predicted annual sales using the regression equation is approximately $966,400.
13.40 YOLI arc testing the null hypothesis that there is 110 13.45 In Problem 13.7 on page 4t( I, you ャセ・」@ thl' Qャ「セイ@
linear relationship between two \'ariables. X and r. From of cLlstomers 10 predict Ihe waiting time on the l'hcckout
your sample of II = 18. you determine that hi +4.5 <.md line. The data are storcd in , Lsing liic' イ・セャ、エウ@
SI> 1.5. of that problem.
a. Whal is Ihe value of ヲセャ[イG_@ a. at the 0.05 le\el of significance. is there c,i,knce of a
b. At the a 0.05 level of significance, \vhat are the criti- linear relationship between the number of cu..,tolllers and
cal values'? the waiting time on the checkout line?
c. Based on your answers to (a) and (b). what statistical b. construct a 9Y% confidence interval estimale of the pop·
decision should you make? ulation slupe. f3 J.
d. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate of the pop-
13.46 In Problem 13.8 on page 482, YOLl used anllual rc\·
ulation slope, (31'
enues to predict the value of a baseball franchise. The data
13.41 You are testing the null hypothesis that there is no are stored in . Using the results of that j1mblem.
linear relationship between two variables, X and r. From a. at the 0.05 level of signi ficance, is there e\ ideI1ce of a
your sample of 11 = 20, YOll determine that SSR = 60 and linear relationship between annual revenue and ヲイ。ャ」ィゥウセ@
SSE = 40. value?
a. What is the value of F'>Tn'! b. construct a YUセッ@ confidence interval estimate or the pop-
b. At the a = 0.05 level of significance. what is the critical ulation slope, f3 I·
value? a
c. Based on your answers to (a) and (b). what statistical 13.47 In Problem 13.9 on page 482, an agent jill a real b
decision should you make? estate company wanted to predict the monthly rcnt 11.1r apart·
d. Compute the correlation coefficient by first computing ments. based on the size of the apartment. The data arc
1
,." and assuming that hi is negative. stored in : ' Using the results of that problem,
IT
e. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there a significant a. at the 0.05 level of significance. is there evidencc of a
linear relationship between the size of the apartment and R
correlation between )( and Y? f(
the monthly rent'?
m
b. construct a 95% confidence interval estimate of the por'
ulation slope. {31'
[ / SElF j13.42 In Problem 13.4 on page 481, the market-
'. ....,' Illg manager used shelf space for pet food to pre- 13.48 In Problem 13.10 on page 482. you used bo\ lItTier:
dict weekly sales. The data are stored in . From the gross to predict the sales of DVDs. The data are 51tjf'cd ゥjセ@
Lt
results of that problem. b I = 7.4 and S/, I = 1.59. . Using the results of that problem.
a. At the 0.05 level of significance. is there evidence of a a. at the 0.05 level of significance. is there e\ idelh'c of a
of
linear relationship between shelf space and sales? linear relationship between box office gross and "ales l1f
pro
b. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate of the pop DVDs?
h
u lation slope, {31' b. construct a 95% confidence interval estimate of till' por-
fo
ulation slope. (3 J. Jal
13.43 In Problem 13.5 on page 481. you used reported
magazine newsstand sales to predict audited sales. The data 13.49 The volatility of a stock is often measured by it,
are stored in • . Using the results of that problem. beta value. You can estimate the beta value of a stoc:k b) N
bl 0.5719 and 51>. = 0.0668. developing a simple linear regression model. using tilL' per-
a. At the 0.05 level of significance. is there evidence of a lin- centage weekly change in the stock as the dependent "arl'
ear relationship between reported sales and audited sales? able and the percentage weekly change in a market indc'\ <1'
CI
b. Construct a 95%, confidence interval estimate oflhe pop- the independent variable. The S&P 500 Index is a C01l1Jllon
ulation slope. {31. index to use. ror example, ifyoll wanted to estimate tilL' heW
13.7 Inferences Abollt the Slope and Correlation Coefficient 503
--- Disney, you could use the following model, \vhich is
referred to as a market model:
The estimated market models for these funds are
approximately
(% weekly change in Disney) 130 (% weekly change in DXSLX) = 0.0 + 2.5
(% weekly change in the S&P 500)
+ 131 (% weekly change in S&P 500 index) + E
(% weekly change in DXHLX) 0.0 + 2
'·u
;;;;.rhe leastsquares regression estimate of the slope hi is the (% weekly change in the Xinhua China 25)
ZセG・sイゥュ。エ@ of the beta value for Disney. A stock with a beta Thus, if the S&P 500 Index gains 10% over a period of time,
of a
:'JnJue of LO tends to move the same as the overall market A the leveraged mutual fund DXSLX gains approximately
feel
k with a beta value of 1.5 tends to move 50% more than 25%. On the downside, if the same index loses 20%,
ci"tiIe overall market, and a stock with a beta value of 0.6 tends DXSLX loses approximately 50%.
ito move only 60% as much as the overall market Stocks a. The objective of the Direxion Funds Small Cap Bull 2.5 x
"with negative beta values tend to move in a direction oppo- fund DXRLX, is 250% of the performance of the Russell
flber ,site that of the overall market. The following table gives 2000 Index. What is its approximate market model?
(Qut some beta values for some widely held stocks, using a year's b. If the Russell 2000 Index gains 10% in a year, what return
mlts ",;worth of data ending in May, 2009. Note that in the first 10 do you expect DXRLX to have?
セゥョッエィウ@ of this time frame the S&P 500 lost approximately c. If the Russell 2000 Index loses 20% in a year, what return
ofa '40% of its value and then rebounded by about 10% in the do you expect DXRLX to have?
and last 2 months: d. What type of investors should be attracted to leveraged
index funds? What type of investors should stay away
pop Ticker Symbol Beta from these funds?
PG 0.54 13.51 The file ュゥNエャセ@ represent the calories and fat
rev T 0.73 (in grams) of 16ounce iced coffee drinks at Dunkin' Donuts
data DIS 1.10 and Starbucks:
セュL@
AAPL 1.52
of a EBAY 1.69 Product Calories Fat
:hise F 2.86 Dunkin' Donuts Iced Mocha 240 8.0
Data extractedfromjinance.yahoo.com. May 27.2009.
Swirllatte (whole milk)
pop . ',;',
Starbucks Coffee Frappuccino 260 3.5
'I. For each of the six companies, interpret the beta value. blended coffee
real b. How can investors use the beta value as a guide for Dunkin' Donuts Coffee 350 22.0
part- investing? Coolatta (cream)
1 are Starbucks Iced Coffee Mocha 350 20.0
13.50 Index funds are mutual funds that try to mimic the Espresso (whole milk and
ofa movement of leading indexes, such as the S&P 500 or the whipped cream)
t and Russell 2000. The beta values (as described in Problem 13.49) Starbucks Mocha Frappuccino 420 16.0
for these funds are therefore approximately 1.0, and the esti- blended coffee (whipped cream)
pop- mated market models for these funds are approximately Starbucks Chocolate Brownie 510 22.0
(% weekly change in index fund) Frappuccino blended coffee
(whipped cream)
lffice 0.0 + 1.0 (% weekly change in the index) Starbucks Chocolate Frappuccino 530 19.0
cd in Blended Creme (whipped cream)
Leveraged index funds are designed to magnify the move-
ment of major indexes. Direxion Funds is a leading provider Source: Data extracted from "Coffee as Candy at Dunkin' Donuts and
, of a Starbllcks." Consumer Reports. JlIne 2004, p. 9.
ies of of leveraged index and other alternativeclass mutual fund
Products for investment advisors and sophisticated investors.
Two of the company's most popular funds are shown in the a. Compute and interpret the coefficient of correlation, r.
pop' b. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there a significant lin-
following table (extracted from www.direxionfunds.com.
January 7, 2009). ear relationship between calories and fat?
'I' its 13.52 There are several methods for calculating fuel economy.
セォ@ by Name Ticker Sym bol Description The file lII!Ib!ttiti (data shown on page 504) contains mileage
セ@per as calculated by owners and by current government standards:
van S&P 500 Bull DXSLX 250% of the S&P a. Compute and interpret the coefficient of correlation, r.
lex as 2.5x Fund 500 Index b. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there a significant lin-
11mon China Bull DXHLX 200% of the Xinhua ear relationship between the mileage as calculated by
e bcta 2x Fund China 25 Index owners and by current government standards?
13.8 Estimation of Mean Values and Prediction oflndividual v。ャオセウ@ 507
FIGURE 13.21 B
1 Confidence Interval Estimate and Prediction Interval
Confidence interval
estimate and prediction 1'
s :'3· ______________;;;.;;;.;.;..._ ____, _____
Data
inteNal worksheet for the 4 X Value I 4
Sunflowers Apparel data 5 Confidence Level I 95%
6
7 Intermediate Calculations
Figure 13.21 displays the . 8 Sample Size 14 =COUNT(SLRData!A:A)
CIEandPI worksheet of the 9 Degrees of Freedom 11 =B8 1
Simple Linear Regression 10 t Value 2.1788 =TlNV(l B5, B9)
workbook. Create this 11 Sample Mean 2.9114 =AVERAGE(SLRData !A:A)
on- worksheet using the 12 Sum of Squared Difference 37.9136 =DEVSO(SLRData!A:A)
instructions in Section 13 Standard Error of the Estimate 0.9664 =COMPUTE!B7
EG13.B. 14 h Statistic 0.1011 =1/B8 + (B4 B11)"1/B11
15 Predicted Y (YHat) 7.6439 =TREND(SLRData!B2:B15, SLRData!Al:A15, B4)
·15
17 For Average Y
18 Interval Half Width 0.6718 =B10 • B13 • SORT(B14)
19 Confidence Interval Lower Limit 6.9711 =B15 B18
20 Confidence Interval Upper Limit 8.3167 =B15 + B18
21
22 For Individual Response Y
.23 ·Interval Half Width 2.2104 =B10' B13 • SORT(l + B14)
24 Prediction Interval Lower Limit 5.4335 =B15 B13
25 Prediction Interval Upper Limit 9.8544 =B15 + B13
Internet site one or more times between classes, the student a. Use the leastsquares method to compute the regression
was given a I for that time period. Because there were 13 coefficients bo and b J •
time periods, a student's score on hit consistency could b. Interpret the meaning of bo and b l in this problem.
range from 0 to 13. c. Predict the delivery time for 150 cases of soft drink.
The other three variables included the student's course d. Should you use the model to predict the delivery time for
average, the student's cumulative grade point average a customer who is receiving 500 cases of soft drink? Why
(GPA), and the total number of hits the student had on the or why not?
Internet site supporting the course. The following table gives e. Determine the coefficient of determination, ,.2, and
the correlation coefficient for all pairs of variables. Note explain its meaning in this problem.
that correlations marked with an * are statistically signifi- f. Perform a residual analysis. Is there any evidence of a
cant, using a = 0.001: pattern in the residuals? Explain.
g. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there evidence of a
linear relationship between delivery time and the number
Variable Correlation
of cases delivered?
Course Average, Cumulative OPA 0.72* h. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate of the
Course Average, Total Hits 0.08 mean delivery time for 150 cases of soft drink and a 95%
Course Average, Hit Consistency 0.37* prediction interval of the delivery time for a single deliv-
Cumulative OPA, Total Hits 0.12 ery of 150 cases of soft drink.
Cumulative OPA, Hit Consistency 0.32*
0.64* 13.75 Mixed costs are very common in business and con-
Total Hits & Hit Consistency
sist of a fixed cost element and a variable cost element.
Source: Data extracted from D. Baugher, A. JfJranelli, and E. Weisbord.
Fixed costs are a recurring, constant cost that does not vary
"Student Hits in an Internet-Supported Course: How Can Instructors
Use Them and What Do They Mean? .. Decision Sciences Journal of when business activity varies. Variable costs are added costs
;Innovative Education, 1 (Fall 2003). 159179. associated with each unit of business activity the organiza-
tion experiences. The relationship can be characterized by
the following equation:
a. What conclusions can you reach from this correlation
Total costs = Fixed cost + (Cost per unit)
analysis?
b. Are you surprised by the results, or are they consistent X (Number of units of business activity)
with your own observations and experiences? In a leading managerial accounting textbook, the authors
13.74 Management of a softdrink bottling company has discuss a hospital's total maintenance costs and use regres-
the business objective of developing a method for allocating sion analysis to estimate the fixedcost element of mainte-
delivery costs to customers. Although one cost clearly nance and the variable cost associated with the number of
relates to travel time within a particular route, another vari- patientdays. The hospital's total maintenance costs and
able cost reflects the time required to unload the cases of number of patientdays for seven months are listed in the
soft drink at the delivery point. To begin, management following table and stored in IMMtilt!tltt
decided to develop a regression model to predict delivery
time based on the number of cases delivered. A sample of
20 deliveries within a territory was selected. The delivery Total Maintenance Costs PatientDays
n times and the number of cases delivered were organized in $7,900 5,600
the following table (and stored in L:Iil1!l1WJ): $8,500 7,100
:.... $7,400 5,000
n Number Delivery I Number Delivery $8,200 6,500
of Time of Time $9,100 7,300
Customer Cases (Minutes) Customer Cases (Minutes) $9,800 8,000
52 32.1 43.0
$7,800 6,200
1 11 161
2 64 34.8 12 184 49.4 Source: Data extracted fium P C. Brewer, R. H. Garrison, and E. f[
)1 Noreen, Introduction to Managerial Accounting. 4th ed. (Boston:
3 73 36.2 13 202 57.2 McGraw-Hili Irwin, 2008).
d
4 85 37.8 14 218 56.8
:s 5 95 37.8 243
15 60.6
セM
6 103 39.7 16 254 61.2
r. a. Using total maintenance costs as the dependent variable
7 116 38.5 17 267 58.2
it and patientdays as the independent variable, use the
8 121 41.9 18 275 63.1
It leastsquares method to find the regression coefficients
9 143 44.2 19 287 65.6
It
10 157 47.1 20 298 67.3
bo and bl'
ャセ@ b. Which regression coefficient represents fixed cost?
516 ClL\I'TLR I Silllple: Lillcal Rcgn""joll
c, Which regression coefficient reprl''>l'llts Ihe \ariabk cost 13.78 The director of gradualL' studies at a large cullege of
per each palientday') business would like to predict the grade point ii\erage (GPA)
d. Predict tOlal maintenance costs ft)r a month with 7,500 of students III an rvt BA program based on (iraduale
patient days. l\1anagement Admission t」セエ@ (GMAT) score.·'\ セ。ャQー・@ of
20 students who ha\e completed 1\\'0 years in the program i,
13.76 You \\Jnt to de\elop a model to predict the selling
selected. The results are stored in I.
price of homes based on assessed value. A sample of 30
reccntly sold singlefamily houses in a small city is selected (Hint: First, determine which are the independent and
to study the relationship between selling price (in thousands dependent variables.)
of dollars) and assessed value (in thousands of dollars). The a. Construct a scatter plot and. assuming a linear relation.
houses in the city were reassessed at full value one year prior ship. use the leastsquares method to computc the regres.
to the study. The results are in [t:r.r:l;. sion coefficients hlJ and hi'
b. Interpret the meaning of the }' intercept. ho• and the slope.
(Hint: First. determine which are the independent and
hi. in this problem,
dependent variables.)
c. Use the prediction line developed in (a) to predict the
a. Construct a scatter plot and. assuming a linear relation-
GPA for a student with a GMAT score of 600.
ship. use the leastsquares method to compute the regres-
d. Determine the coetfi cient of determination, LNセ@ and inter-
sion coefficients bo and b I'
pret its meaning in this problem.
b. Interpret the meaning of the Y intercept, bu, and the slope,
e. Perform a residual analysis on your results and evaluate
b l • in this problem.
the regression assumptions.
c. Use the prediction line developed in (a) to predict the
f. At the 0.05 level of significance. is there evidence of a
selling price for a house whose assessed value is
linear relationship between GMAT score and (iPA?
$170,000.
g. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate of the
d. Determine the coefficient of determination. and inter- ,.2. mean OPA of students with a GMAT score of 600 and a
pret its meaning in this problem.
95% prediction interval of the GPA for a particular stu-
e. Perform a residual analysis on your results and evaluate
dent with a GMAT score of 600.
the regression assumptions.
h. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate of the pop-
f. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there evidence of a
ulation slope.
linear relationship between selling price and assessed
value? 13.79 An accountant for a large department store would
g. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate of the pop- like to develop a model to predict the amount of time it takes
ulation slope. to process invoices. Data are collected from the past
32 working days, and the number of invoices processed and
13.77 You want to develop a model to predict the assessed
completion time (in hours) are stored in セ^N@
value of houses. based on heating area. A sample of ]5 single-
family houses in a city is selected. The assessed value (in (Hint: First, determine which are the independent and
thousands of dollars) and the heating area of the houses (in dependent variables.)
thousands of square feet) are recorded; the results are stored a. Assuming a linear relationship, use the leastsquares
in 1ml'!Il.iJ. method to compute the regression coefficients b" and hi'
b. Interpret the meaning of the Y intercept. bu. and the slope.
(Hint: First, determine which are the independent and
bJ, in this problem.
dependent variables.)
c. Use the prediction line developed in (a) to predict the 51
a. Construct a scatter plot and, assuming a linear relation- d
amount of time it would take to process 150 invoices.
ship. use the leastsquares method to compute the regres-
d. Determine the coefficient of determination, ,.2. and inter· 5(
sion coefficients b(j and b I' n
pret its meaning.
b. Interpret the meaning of the Y intercept, b(j, and the slope.
e. Plot the residuals against the number of ill\oices PI
bl, in this problem. Lt
processed and also against time.
c. Use the prediction line developed in (a) to predict the
f. Based on the plots in (e). does the model seem appropriate: (r
assessed value for a house whose heating area is 1,750
g. Based on the results in (e) and (f), what conclusions de
square feet.
can you make about the validity of the prediction made a.
d. Determine the coefficient of determination. r2, and inter-
in (c)?
pret its meaning in this problem.
t". Perform a residual analysis on your results and evaluate 13.80 On January 28. 1986, the space shuttle Challenger
the regression assumptions. exploded, and seven astronauts were killed. Prior to the b.
f. At the 0.05 level of significance. is there evidence of a launch. the predicted atmospheric temperature キ。セ@ for
linear relationship between assessed value and heating freezing weather at the launch site. Engineers for Morton c.
area? Thiokol (the manufacturer of the rocket 111otor) prepared
532 CHAPTEI{ 14 IlltmdurtiolllO Multiple R.:gr.:"ioll
I
I Variable Coefficients
Standard
Error t Statistic
mean miles per gallon for cars that have 60 horsepower
and weigh 2,000 pounds.
f. Construct a 95% prediction interval for the miles per gal-
1
INTERCEPT 0.02686 0.06905 0.39 0.7034 lon for an individual car that has 60 horsepov.er and
I FOREIMP 0.79116 0.06295 12.57 0.0000 weighs 2,000 pounds.
I ' MIDSOLE 0.60484 0.07174 8.43 0.0000
j
I
I 14.6 The business problem facing a consumer products
company is to measure the effectiveness of different types of
advertising media in the promotion of its products. Specifically.
a. State the multiple regression equation.
the company is interested in the effectiveness of radio adver-
b. Interpret the meaning of the slopes, b l and b2 • in this
tising and newspaper advertising (including the cost of dis-
problem.
count coupons). Data were collected from a sample of22 cities ]
r7SE'lFl 14.4 A mailorder catalog business selling per- with approximately equal populations selected for study dur-
BIii!lIl sonal computer supplies, software, and hardware ing a test period of one month. Each city is allocated a specific
maintains a centralized warehouse. Management is cur- expenditure level for radio advertising and for newspaper
rently examining the process of distribution from the advertising. The sales of the product (in thousands of dollars)
warehouse. The business problem facing management and also the levels of media expenditure (in thousands of dol-
relates to the factors that affect warehouse distribution lars) during the test month are recorded, with the following
costs. Currently, a small handling fee is added to each results shown at the top of page 533 and stored in fJ!fI: l!j:
order, regardless of the amount of the order. Data col- a. State the multiple regression equation.
lected over the past 24 months (stored in セGZI@ indi- b. Interpret the meaning of the slopes. b l and b2 , in this
cate the warehouse distribution costs (in thousands of problem.
dollars), the sales (in thousands of dollars), and the number c. Interpret the meaning of the regression coefficient. Il,}.
of orders received. d. Which type of advertising is more effective? Explaill.
14.2 /). Adjusted 1'2, and the Overall FTes! 533
Data were collected for 26 weeks; these data are organized
Sales Radio Adverting Newspaper
and stored in セZエN
($000) ($000) Advertising ($000)
a. State the multiple regression equation.
973 0 40 b. Interpret the meaning of the slopes, b l and b2• in this
I, I 19 0 40 problem.
875 25 25 c. Explain why the regression coefficient, bo, has no practi-
625 25 25 cal meaning in the context of this problem.
910 30 30 d. Predict the standby hours for a week in which the total
971 30 30 staff present have 310 peopledays and the remote hours
931 35 35 are 400.
1,177 35 35 e. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for the
882 40 25 mean standby hours for weeks in which the total staff
982 40 25 present have 310 peopledays and the remote hours are
y 1,628 45 45 400.
tl 1,577 45 45 f. Construct a 95% prediction interval for the standby hours
, 1,044 50 0 for a single week in which the total staff p resent have 310
914 50 0 peopledays and the remote hours are 400.
1,329 55 25
14.8 Nassau County is located approximately 25 miles east
1,330 55 25
of New York City. The data organized and stored in
1,405 60 30
:r
1,436 60 30
rcvmM include the appraised value, land area of the prop-
Ie erty in acres, and age, in years, for a sample of 30 single-
1,521 65 35
a 1,74 I
family homes located in Glen Cove, a small city in Nassau
65 35
1- County. Develop a multiple linear regression model to pre-
1,866 70 40
dict appraised value based on land area of the property and
1,717 70 40
age, in years.
is a. State the multiple regression equation.
b. Interpret the meaning of the slopes, bl and b2 , in this
al The business problem facing the director of broad- problem.
operations for a television station was the issue of c. Explain why the regression coefficient, bo, has no practi-
er hours (i.e., hours in which unionized graphic artists cal meaning in the context of this problem.
at the station are paid but are not actually involved in any d. Predict the appraised value for a house that has a land
Ie '." activity) and what factors were related to standby hours. The area of 0.25 acres and is 45 years old.
er Bセウエオ、ケ@ included the following variables: e. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for the
セ[ᄋsエ。ョ、「ケ@ hours (Y)-Total number of standby hours in a mean appraised value for houses that have a land area of
LI- \ week 0.25 acres and are 45 years old.
Id ,Total staff present (XI ) -Weekly total of peopledays f. Construct a 95% prediction interval estimate for the
iRemote hours (X2 )Total number of hours worked by appraised value for an individual house that has a land
employees at locations away from the central plant area of 0.25 acres and is 45 years old.
ts
of
Iy,
セイM
s-
es
Ir- 14.2 r2, Adjusted r2, and the Overall FTest
k This section discusses three methods you can use to evaluate the overall multiple regression
er model: the coefficient of multiple determination, 1'2, the adjusted r2, and the overall Ftest.
's)
)1-
19 Coefficient of Multiple Determination
セZ@ Recall from Section 13.3 that the coefficient of determination, ,.2, measures the proportion of
the variation in Y that is explained by the independent variable X in the simple linear regres-
Lis sion model. In multiple regression, the coefficient of multiple determination represents the
proportion of the variation in Y that is explained by the set of independent variables. Equation
(14.4) defines the coefficient of multiple determination for a multiple regression model with
two or more independent variables.
536 CHAPTER 14 Introduction to Multiple Regression
a. Determine the regression mean square (MSR) and the Team perfonnance f30 + f31 (Team ski 11 ) + e,
mean square error (MS£). r;dj = 0.68
h. Compute the overall FSTAT test statistic.
Model 2
c. Determine whether there is a significant relationship
between Yand the two independent variables at the 0.05 Team performance 130 + 131 (Clarity in expectations) + e,
level of significance.
r;dj = 0.78
d. Compute the coefficient of multiple determination, r2,
and interpret its meaning. Model 3
e. Compute the adjusted r2.
Team performance = f30 + f31 (Team skills)
14.10 The following ANOVA summary table is for a mul-
+ f32 (Clarity in expectations) + e
tiple regression model with two independent variables:
ridj = 0.97
Degrees of Sum of Mean
Source Freedom Squares Squares F a. Interpret the adjusted r2 for each of the three models.
h. Which of these three models do you think is the best pre·
Regression 2 30 dictor of team performance?
Error 10 120
Total 12 150 14.12 In Problem 14.3 on page 532, you predicted the
durability of a brand of running shoe, based on the forefoot
shockabsorbing capability and the change in impact prop-
a. Determine the regression mean square (MSR) and the
erties over time. The regression analysis resulted in the
mean square error (MS£).
following ANOVA summary table:
h. Compute the overall FSTAT test statistic.
c. Determine whether there is a significant relationship
between Yand the two independent variables at the 0.05 Degrees of Sum of Mean
level of significance. Source Freedom Squares Squares F pva.!!:.
d. Compute the coefficient of multiple determination, ,.2, Regression 2 12.61020 6.30510 97.69 0.0001
and interpret its meaning. Error 12 0.77453 0.06454
e. Compute the adjusted /).. Total 14 13.38473
542 l
j
ate 14.45 Zagat's publishes restaurant ratings for various loca- 14.47 In Problem 14.5 on page 532, horsepower and
t to .',.,.uu,,' in the United States. The file iェエhDセ@ contains the weight were used to predict miles per gallon (stored in
I to .' Zagat rating for food, decor, service, and cost per person for 1'J!.i::m.). Develop a regression model that includes horse-
セ@ is .'. a sample of 50 restaurants located in a city and 50 restau- power, weight, and the interaction of horsepower and weight
ent .':rants located in a suburb. Develop a regression model to to predict miles per gallon.
the ':predict the cost per person, based on a variable that repre- a. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there evidence that
:tan i.sents the sum of the ratings for food, decor, and service and the interaction term makes a significant contribution to
:ant セ@ dummy variable concerning location (city vs. suburban). the model?
and (a) through (m), do not include an interaction term. b. Which regression model is more appropriate, the one used
an Source: Extracted from Zagat Survey 2008 New York City Restaurants in this problem or the one used in Problem 14.5? Explain.
'ond Zagat Survey 20072008 Long Island Restaurants.
jng
14.48 In Problem 14.7 on page 533, you used total staff
a. State the multiple regression equation. present and remote hours to predict standby hours (stored in
and b. Interpret the regression coefficients in (a). lj'r!'jl'J!fi). Develop a regression model to predict standby
.' c. Predict the cost for a restaurant with a summated rating hours that includes total staff present, remote hours, and the
of 60 that is located in a city and construct a 95% confi- interaction of total staff present and remote hours.
1 an dence interval estimate and a 95% prediction interval.
a. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there evidence that
ct a . d. Perform a residual analysis on the results and determine the interaction term makes a significant contribution to
tion whether the regression assumptions are satisfied. the model?
;'e. Is there a significant relationship between price and the b. Which regression model is more appropriate, the one used
line q two independent variables (summated rating and loca-
in this problem or the one used in Problem 14.7? Explain.
tion) at the 0.05 level of significance?
)Urs At the 0.05 level of significance, determine whether 14.49 The director of a training program for a large insur-
and each independent variable makes a contribution to the ance company has the business objective of determining
セI@ at regression model. Indicate the most appropriate regres- which training method is best for training underwriters. The
sion model for this set of data. three methods to be evaluated are traditional, CDROM
ther Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate of the based, and Web based. The 30 trainees are divided into three
the population slope for the relationship between cost and randomly assigned groups of 10. Before the start of the
summated rating. training, each trainee is given a proficiency exam that mea-
Compare the slope in (b) with the slope for the simple sures mathematics and computer skills. At the end of the
. the linear regression model of Problem 13.90 on page 518. training, all students take the same endoftraining exam.
ours Explain the difference in the results. The results are organized and stored in liCtitumm.
Compute and interpret the meaning of the coefficient of Develop a multiple regression model to predict the score
. the multiple determination. on the endoftraining exam, based on the score on the pro-
lfan Compute and interpret the adjusted r2. ficiency exam and the method of training used. For (a)
Compare r2 with the ,.2 value computed in Problem through (k), do not include an interaction term.
13.90 (d) on page 518. a. State the multiple regression equation.
and t. Compute the coefficients of partial determination and b. Interpret the regression coefficients in (a).
interpret their meaning. c. Predict the endoftraining exam score for a student with
:Iope m. What assumption about the slope of cost with summated a proficiency exam score of 100 who had Webbased
rating do you need to make in this problem? training.
0.05 n. Add an interaction term to the model and, at the 0.05 d. Perform a residual analysis on your results and deter-
sig- level of significance, determine whether it makes a sig- mine whether the regression assumptions are valid.
nificant contribution to the model. e. Is there a significant relationship between the end-
lei is o. On the basis of the results of (f) and (n), which model is oftraining exam score and the independent variables
most appropriate? Explain. (proficiency score and training method) at the 0.05 level
of significance?
used 14.46 In Problem 14.6 on page 532, you used radio adver- f. At the 0.05 level of significance, determine whether
tored tising and newspaper advertising to predict sales (stored in each independent variable makes a contribution to the
.istri- PlMmm). Develop a regression model to predict sales that regression model. Indicate the most appropriate regres-
::m of includes radio advertising, newspaper advertising, and the sion model for this set of data.
interaction of radio advertising and newspaper advertising. g. Construct and interpret 95% confidence interval esti-
: that a. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there evidence that mate ofthe population slope for the relationship between
)n to the interaction term makes a significant contribution to endoftraining exam score and proficiency exam.
the model? h. Construct and interpret 95% confidence interval esti-
: one b. Which regression model is more appropriate, the one used mates of the population slope for the relationship between
n. in this problem or the one used in Problem 14.6? Explain. endoftraining exam score and type of training method.
CHAPTER 2 SOLUTIONS
(c) The majority of utility charges are clustered between $120 and $180.
2.99 (a)
Range Frequency Percentage
0 but less than 25 17 34%
25 but less than 50 19 38%
50 but less than 75 5 10%
75 but less than 100 2 4%
100 but less than 125 3 6%
125 but less than 150 2 4%
150 but less than 175 2 4%
(b)
Histogram
20
18
16
y 14
c 12
n
e
u 10
q
e
r 8
F 6
4
2
0
0 but less 25 but 50 but 75 but 100 but 125 but 150 but
than 25 less than less than less than less than less than less than
50 75 100 125 150 175
Days
(d) You should tell the president of the company that over half of the complaints are
resolved within a month, but point out that some complaints take as long as three
or four months to settle.
CHAPTER 3 SOLUTIONS
3.7 For the finance majors, the mean and median starting salary are the same. Hence, the
distribution of starting salary is symmetrical. The average scatter is $10,000. For the
information systems graduates, the mean starting salary is greater than the median
starting salary. Hence, the distribution is right-skewed. The average scatter is $37,000,
which is almost 4 times higher than that of the finance majors.
3.15 (a)
Money Market Five-Year CD
Standard Deviation 0.101637 Standard Deviation 0.094974
Sample Variance 0.01033 Sample Variance 0.00902
Range 0.23 Range 0.2
Coefficient of Variation 4.79% Coefficient of Variation 2.64%
(b) The money market accounts have more variation in the highest yields offered
compared to the five-year CD because the standard deviation, variance, range
and coefficient of variation are all higher for money market accounts.
CHAPTER 3 SOLUTIONS (continued)
Mean 4.286667
Standard Error 0.422926
Median 4.5
Mode #N/A
Standard Deviation 1.637985
Sample Variance 2.682995
Kurtosis 0.832925
Skewness 0.83295
Range 6.08
Minimum 0.38
Maximum 6.46
Sum 64.3
Count 15
First Quartile 3.2
Third Quartile 5.55
Interquartile Range 2.35
Coefficient of Variation 38.2112%
Z scores: 0.05, 0.77, 0.77, 0.51, 0.30, 1.19, 0.46, 0.66, 0.13, 1.11, 2.39,
Coefficient of variation = 38.21%
So at least 93.75% of these funds are expected to have one-year total returns btwn -2.8
and 19.2.
3.45 (a) The study suggests that time spent on Facebook and grade point average are
negatively correlated.
(b) There could be a cause-and-effect relationship between time spent on Facebook
and grade point average. The more time spent on Facebook, the less time a
student would have available for study and, hence, results in lower grade point
average holding constant all the other factors that could have affected grade point
average.
X X Yi Y
n
cov X , Y i 1
591.6667
i
3550
n 1
3.46 (a)
cov X , Y
6
r 0.7196
113.1371 7.2678
591.6667
(b)
S X SY
(c) The correlation coefficient is more valuable for expressing the relationship
between calories and fat because it does not depend on the units used to measure
calories and fat.
(d) There is a strong positive linear relationship between calories and fat.
CHAPTER 4 SOLUTIONS
4.8 (a) “Makes less than $50,000”.
(b) “Makes less than $50,000 and tax code is unfair”.
(c) The complement of “tax code is fair” is “tax code is unfair”.
(d) “Tax code is fair and makes less than $50,000” is a joint event because it
consists of two characteristics or attributes.
4.26 Set up a contingency table, Let W=needs warranty related repairs, U=United States.
Given P(W)=.04, P(U)=.60, P(W∩U)=.025, use information to fill in table:
U U’
W .025 .015 .04
W’ .575 .385 .96
.60 .40 1
0.0045
4 3 12 1
4.28 (a) P(both queens) =
52 51 2,652 221
0.012
4 8 32 8
(b) P(10 followed by 5 or 6) =
52 51 2,652 663
0.0059
4 4 16 1
(c) P(both queens) =
52 52 2,704 169
0.0483
16 4 4 16 128 32
(d) P(blackjack) =
52 51 52 51 2,652 663
CHAPTER 5 SOLUTIONS
5.3 (a) Based on the fact that the odds of winning are expressed out with a base of
iN1 X i P X i = $ 5.49
31,478, you will think that the automobile dealership sent out 31,478 fliers.
(c)
(d) The total cost of the prizes is $15,000 + $500 + 31,476 * $5 = $172,880.
Assuming that the cost of producing the fliers is negligible, the cost of reaching a
single customer is $172,880/31478 = $5.49. The effectiveness of the promotion
will depend on how many customers will show up in the show room.
5.4 Here are the 36 different possible outcomes when you roll dice:
Under 7: (1,1) (1,2) (2,1) (2,2) (1,3) (3,1) (1,4) (4,1) (2,3) (3,2) (1,5) (5,1) (2,4) (4,2) (3,3)
Equal 7: (1,6) (6,1) (2,5) (5,2) (3,4) (4,3)
Over 7: (2,6) (6,2) (3,5) (5,3) (4,4) (3,6) (6,3) (4,5) (5,4) (4,6) (6,4) (5,5) (5,6) (6,5) (6,6)
5.10 (a) E(total time) = E(time waiting) + E(time served) = 4 + 5.5 = 9.5 minutes
(b) (total time) = 1.22 1.52 1.9209 minutes
5.12
X P(X) XP(X) (X-E(X))2P(X)
-100 0.1 -10 2528.1
0 0.3 0 1044.3
80 0.3 24 132.3
150 0.3 45 2484.3
59 6189.0
Cov(X,Y) = ( X E ( X ))(Y E (Y )) P ( X , Y ) = -6306
-6306.0
X ,Y
(d) Stock X gives the investor a lower standard deviation while yielding a higher expected
return so the investor should select stock X.
5.13
(a) E(P) =.3*59+.7*14 = 27.5, σp= .3 2 (6189) .7 2 (9924) 2(.3)(.7 )( 6306) = 52.64
(b) E(P) =.5*59+.5*14 = 36.5, σp= .5 2 (6189) .5 2 (9924) 2(.5)(.5)( 6306) = 29.58
(c) E(P) =.7*59+.3*14 = 45.5, σp= .7 2 (6189) .3 2 (9924) 2(.7)(.3)( 6306) = 35.74
(d) Based on the results (a)-(c), you should recommend a portfolio with 70% of stock X and
30% of stock Y. This portfolio has the lowest coefficient of variation, so it has the lowest
risk per unit average return. The coefficient of variations for (a)-(c) are as follows:
(a) 191.42%, (b) 81.04%, (c) 78.55%
This portfolio also has the highest expected return.
CHAPTER 6 SOLUTIONS
75 100
6.5 (a) P(X>75) = P z = P(z > -2.5) = .9938
10
70 100
(b) P(X<70) = P z = P(z < -3) = 1-.99865 = .00135
10
80 100 110 100
(c) P(X<80) + P(X>110) = P z + P z = P(z<-2) + P(z>1) =
10 10
X 100
= .0228 + (1-.8413) = .0228 + .1587 =.1815
L X 100
(d) Set P z
U
= P(-1.28 < z < 1.28) = .80, so that
10
10
X 100
L = -1.28 or XL = 100 - 1.28(10) = 87.2 and
10
X 100
U
= 1.28 or XL = 100 + 1.28(10) = 112.8
10
34 50 50 50
6.8
X 50 X 50
(c) Set P z = P(z >-.84) =.80, so that
12
= -.84 or X =50-.84(12) = 39.92
12
(39,920 miles)
(d) Keeping everything else constant, a smaller standard deviation causes more sample means to be
34 50 50 50
closer to the mean. As a result, we would expect (a), (c) to increase and (b) to decrease.
30 50 60 50
(Δb) P(X<30)+P(X>60) = P z + P z =P(z<-2) + P(z>+1) =
10 10
= .0228 + (1-.8413) =.1815
X 50 X 50
(Δc) Set P z = P(z >-.84) =.80, so that
10
= -.84
10
or X =50-.84(10) = 41.6 (41,600 miles)
CHAPTER 6 SOLUTIONS (continued)
91 73
6.10 (a) P(X<91) = P z = P(z <2.25) = .9878
8
65 73 89 73
(b) P(65<X<89) = P z = P(-1< z<2) = .9772 - (1-.8413) = .8185
8 8
X 73 X 73
(c) Set P z = P(z >1.645) =.05, so that
= 1.645 or X =73+1.645(8) = 86.16
8 8
(d) Option 1:
X 73 X 73
Set P z = P(z >1.28) =.10, so that
= 1.28 or X =73+1.28(8) = 83.24
8 8
Since 81<83.24, you will not get an A under this grading option.
Option 2:
X 62 X 62
Set P z = P(z >1.28) =.10, so that
= 1.28 or X =62+1.28(3) = 65.84
3 3
Since 68>65.84, you will get an A under this grading option.
X 22.002 X 22.002
(c) Set P z = P(z >2.05) =.02, so that
= 2.05 or
.005 .005
X =22.002+2.05(.005)=22.012
CHAPTER 7 SOLUTIONS
95 100
7.15 (a) P( X < 95) = P z = P(z< -2.5) = .0062
10 / 25
95 100 97.5 100
(b) P(95< X <97.5) = P z = P(-2.5<z<-1.25) = .9938 - .8944 = .0994
10 / 25 10 / 25
102.2 100
(c) P( X >102.2) = P z = P(z>1.1) = 1-.3643 = .1357
10 / 25
X 100 X 100
(d) Set P z = P(z >-.39) =.65, so that
10 / 25
= -.39 or X = 100 - .39(10/ 25 ) = 99.2
10 / 25
7.19
(a) Because the population diameter of Ping-Pong balls is approximately normally distributed,
sampling distribution of samples of 16 will also be approximately normally distributed with
standard error equal to .04 / 16 .01 .
1.28 1.3
(b) P( X <1.28) = P z = P(z<-2) = 1-.9772 = .0228
.01
1.31 1.3 1.33 1.3
(c) P(1.31< X <1.33) = P z = P(1<z<3) = .99865-.8413 = .15735
.01 .01
X 1.3
L X 1.3
(d) Set P z
U
= P(-.84 < z < .84) = .60, so that
.01 .01
X 1.3
L = -.84 or XL = 1.3 - .84(.01) = 1.2916 and
.01
X 1.3
U
= +.84 or XL = 1.3 + .84(.01) = 1.3084
.01
7.20 (a) When n=2, the shape of the sampling distribution of X should resemble the shape of the
distribution of the population from which the sample is drawn. Since the mean is larger than the
median, the distribution of the sales price of the new houses is skewed to the right, and so is the
sampling distribution of X .
(b) If you select samples of n=100, the shape of the sampling distribution of the mean will be very close
to a normal distribution with a mean of $274,300 and standard deviation of / n 90000 / 100 =9000.
300000 274300
(c) P( X <300000) = P z = P(z<2.86) = .9979
900000 / 100
7.8 8 8.2 8
7.21 (a) P(7.8< X <8.2) = P z = P(-.5<z<.5) = = .6915 - .3085 = .383
2 / 25 2 / 25
7.5 8 88
(b) P(7.5< X <8) = P z = P(-1.25<z<0) = .8944 - .5 = .3944
2 / 25 2 / 25
7.8 8 8.2 8
(c) P(7.8< X <8.2) = P z = P(-1<z<1) = = .8413 - .1587 = .6826
2 / 100 2 / 100
(d) With the sample size increasing from n=25 to n=100, more sample means will be closer to the
distribution mean. The standard error of the sampling distribution of size 100 is much smaller
than that of size 25, so the likelihood that the sample mean will fall within 0.2 minutes of the
mean is much higher for samples of size 100 (probability=0.6826) than for samples of size 25
(probability=0.3830).
3 3.1
7.22 (a) P( X >3) = P z = P(z>-1) = .8413
.4 / 16
X 3.1 X 3.1
(b) Set P z = P(z<1.04) =.85, so that
.4 / 16
= 1.04 or X = 3.1 + 1.04(.4/ 16 ) = 3.204
.4 / 16
(c) To be able to use the standard normal distribution as an approximation for the area under
the curve, we must assume that the population is symmetrically distributed such that the
central limit theorem will likely hold for samples of n=16.
X 3.1 X 3.1
(d) Set P z = P(z<1.04) =.85, so that
.4 / 64
= 1.04 or X = 3.1 + 1.04(.4/ 64 ) = 3.152
.4 / 64
7.27 (a) P(.5< p<.6) = P P (0 z 2.83) = .9977-.5 = .4977
.5 .5 .6 .5
z
(.5)(.5)
(.5)(.5)
200 200
7.27 (continued)
p .5 p .5
(b) Set P L z = P(-1.645 < z <1.645) = .90, so that
.5(.5) .5(.5)
U
200 200
p .5 .5(.5)
L = -1.645 or p L = .5 – 1.645 = .4418 and
.5(.5) 200
200
p .5 .5(.5)
U
= +1.645 or pU = .5 + 1.645 = .5582
.5(.5) 200
(1 )
200
(c) P( p >.65) = P z P ( z 4.24) 0
.65 .5
(.5)(.5)
200
(d) If n=200, P( p >.60) = P z P ( z 2.83) = 1 - .9977 = .0023
.60 .5
(.5)(.5)
200
If n=1000, P( p >.55) = P z P ( z 3.16) = 1 - .99921 = .00079
.55 .5
(.5)(.5)
1000
More than 60% correct in a sample of 200 is more likely than more than 55%
correct in a sample of 1000.
CHAPTER 7 SOLUTIONS (continued)
7.30 (a) P(.45< p<.55) = P = P(-.28<z<2.55) = .9946-.3897 = .6049
.45 .46 .55 .46
z
(.46)(.54)
(.46)(.54)
200 200
p .46 p .46
(b) Set P L z = P(-1.645 < z <1.645) = .90, so that
.46(.54) .46(.54)
U
200 200
p .46 .46(.54)
L = -1.645 or p L = .46 – 1.645 = .40 and
.46(.54) 200
200
p .46 .46(.54)
U
= +1.645 or pU = .46 + 1.645 = .52
.46(.54) 200
(1 )
200
p .46 p .46
(c) Set P L z = P(-1.96 < z <1.96) = .95, so that
.46(.54) .46(.54)
U
200 200
p .46 .46(.54)
L = -1.96 or p L = .46 – 1.96 = .39 and
.46(.54) 200
200
p .46 .46(.54)
U
= +1.96 or pU = .46 + 1.96 = .53
.46(.54) 200
(1 )
200
No. Since is known and n = 50, from the Central Limit Theorem, we may assume
the mean is different from 1.0 gallon.
(c)
that the sampling distribution of X is approximately normal.
(d) The reduced confidence level narrows the width of the confidence interval.
X Z 0.995 1.96 0.9895 1.0005
0.02
.
n 50
(b) Since the value of 1.0 is still included in the interval, there is no reason to
believe that the mean is different from 1.0 gallon.
X Z 350 1.96 325.5 374.50
100
8.10 (a)
n 64
(b) No. The manufacturer cannot support a claim that the bulbs last an average 400
hours. Based on the data from the sample, a mean of 400 hours would represent a
No. Since is known and n = 64, from the Central Limit Theorem, we may assume
distance of 4 standard deviations above the sample mean of 350 hours.
(c)
that the sampling distribution of X is approximately normal.
(d) The confidence interval is narrower based on a process standard deviation of 80
hours rather than the original assumption of 100 hours.
X Z 350 1.96 330.4 369.6
80
(a)
n 64
(b) Based on the smaller standard deviation, a mean of 400 hours would
represent a distance of 5 standard deviations above the sample mean of
350 hours. No, the manufacturer cannot support a claim that the bulbs
have a mean life of 400 hours.
(c) The project was a success because the initial turnaround time of 68 hours does
not fall inside the 95% confidence interval.
8.28 (a)
0.27(1 0.27)
p pZ 0.27 2.5758
X 135 p (1 – p )
= 0.27
0.22 0.32
n 500 n 500
8.30 (a)
0.52(1 0.52)
p pZ 0.52 1.96
X 260 p (1 – p )
= 0.52
0.4762 0.5638
n 500 n 500
(b) Since the 95% confidence interval contains 0.50, you cannot claim that more than
half of all U.S. workers have negotiated a pay raise.
p
X 2600
(c) (a) = 0.52
n 5000
0.52(1 0.52)
pZ 0.52 1.96
p (1 – p )
0.5062 0.5338
n 5000
(b) Since the lower limit of the 95% confidence interval is greater than 0.50,
you can claim that more than half of all U.S. workers have negotiated a
pay raise.
(d) The larger the sample size, the narrow is the confidence interval holding
everything else constant.
p 1 p 0.33401 0.3340
p = 0.3340 pZ 0.3340 1.96
158
8.33 (a)
0.29 0.38
473 n 473
p 1 p 0.17971 0.1797
p = 0.1797 pZ 0.1797 1.96
85
(b)
0.15 0.21
473 n 473
(c) You can be 95% confident that the population proportion of employees who
typically took work with them on vacation is somewhere between 0.29 and
0.38 and the population proportion of employees who said that there are
unwritten and unspoken expectations that they stay connected is
somewhere between 0.15 and 0.21.
(d) The two confidence interval estimates do not overlap because the two separate
point estimates are far enough apart.
Z 2 (1 – ) 1.962 (0.4)(0.6)
8.37 n = 2,304.96 Use n = 2,305
e2 (0.02) 2
CHAPTER 8 SOLUTIONS (continued)
Z 2 2 1.962 4002
8.38 (a) n = 245.86 Use n = 246
e2 502
Z 2 2 1.962 4002
(b) n 2 = 983.41 Use n = 984
e 252
Z 2 2 2.582 182
8.71 (a) n = 86.27 Use n = 87
e2 52
Note: If the Z-value used is carried out to 2.5758, the value of n is 85.986 and
0.2764 0.4664
n 70
Z 1.96 10
n
2 2 2 2
(c) 2 = 170.74 Use n = 171
1.5 2
Z 2 (1 – ) 1.6452 (0.5) (0.5)
e
(d) n = 334.08 Use n = 335
e2 (0.045) 2
(e) If a single sample were to be selected for both purposes, the larger of the two sample
sizes (n = 335) should be used.
0.7384 0.9416
n 50
(c) The representative can be 95% confidence that the actual proportion of bags that
will do the job is between 74.5% and 93.5%. He/she can accordingly perform a
cost-benefit analysis to decide if he/she wants to sell the Ice Melt product.
is the probability of incorrectly convicting the defendant when he is innocent. is the
CHAPTER 9 SOLUTIONS
9.9
probability of incorrectly failing to convict the defendant when he is guilty.
9.10 Under the French judicial system, unlike ours in the United States, the null hypothesis
assumes the defendant is guilty, the alternative hypothesis assumes the defendant is
innocent. A Type I error would be not convicting a guilty person and a Type II error
would be convicting an innocent person.
9.11 (a) A Type I error is the mistake of approving an unsafe drug. A Type II error is not
approving a safe drug.
(b) The consumer groups are trying to avoid a Type I error.
(c) The industry lobbyists are trying to avoid a Type II error.
(d) To lower both Type I and Type II errors, the FDA can require more information
and evidence in the form of more rigorous testing. This can easily translate into
units away from 0 is 0.0771.
X Za/2 .995 2.5758 0.9877 1.0023
.02
(c)
n 50
You are 95% confident that population mean amount of paint contained in 1-gallon cans
purchased from a nationally known manufacturer is somewhere between 0.9877 and
1.0023 gallon.
(d) Since the 99% confidence interval does contain the hypothesized value of 1, you
will not reject H 0 . The conclusions are the same.
9.22 (a) H 0 : 3.7 H 1 : 3.7 . Decision rule: Reject H 0 if |tSTAT| > 1.998 d.f. = 63
X
Test statistic: t STAT -1.3
3.57 - 3.7
S/ n 0.8/ 64
Decision: Since |tSTAT| < 1.9983, do not reject H 0 . There is not enough evidence
to conclude that the population mean waiting time is different from 3.7
minutes at the 0.05 level of significance.
(b) The sample size of 64 is large enough to apply the Central Limit Theorem and,
hence, you do not need to be concerned about the shape of the population
distribution when conducting the t-test in (a). In general, the t test is
appropriate for this sample size except for the case where the population is
extremely skewed or bimodal.
CHAPTER 9 SOLUTIONS (continued)
9.26 (a) H 0 : 35 H 1 : 35
Decision rule: Reject H 0 if |tSTAT| > 2.5706 d.f. = 5
X
Test statistic: t STAT 0.8556
36.53 - 35
S/ n 4.3896/ 6
Decision: Since |tSTAT| < 2.5706, do not reject H 0 . There is not enough evidence
to conclude that the mean price for two tickets with online service charges, large
popcorn, and two medium soft drinks is different from $35.
(b) The p-value is 0.4313. If the population mean is indeed $35, the probability of
observing a sample of 6 theater chains that will result in a sample mean farther
away from the hypothesized value than this sample is 0.4313.
(c) That the distribution of prices is normally distributed.
(d) With a small sample size, it is difficult to evaluate the assumption of normality.
However, the distribution may be symmetric since the mean and the median are
close in value.
The mean length of steel bars produced is less than 2.8 feet and the production equipment
does need immediate adjustment.
X – 2.73 – 2.8
(a) Decision rule: If tSTAT < – 1.7109, reject H0.
X – 2.73 – 2.8
(b) Decision rule: If p-value < 0.05, reject H0.
Decision: Since p value = 0.0464 is less than = 0.05, reject H0. There is enough
p-value = 0.0464
H1: > 5
The mean number of trips that children take to the store is no more than 5.
The mean number of trips that children take to the store is more than 5.
(b) A Type I error occurs when you conclude the mean number of trips that children
take to the store is more than 5 when in fact the mean number is not more than
five.
A Type II error occurs when you conclude the mean number of trips that children
take to the store is not more than 5 when in fact the mean number is more than
five.
X – 5.47 – 5
(c) Decision rule: If tSTAT > 2.3646 or when the p-value < 0.01, reject H0.
p
Decision rule: If ZSTAT < -2.3263, reject H0.
Test statistic: Z STAT
1 0.51 - 0.5
0.42 - 0.5
= -3.5777
n 500
Decision: Since ZSTAT = -3.5777 is lower than the critical bound of 2.3263, reject
H0. There is enough evidence to conclude that the proportion of customers who
selected products and then cancelled their transaction is less than 0.50 with the
p
Decision rule: If Z < -2.3263, reject H0.
Test statistic: Z STAT
1 0.51 - 0.5
0.42 - 0.5
= -1.6
n 100
Decision: Since ZSTAT = -1.6 is larger than the critical bound of 2.3263, do not
reject H0. There is not enough evidence to conclude that the proportion of
customers who selected products and then cancelled their transaction is less than
0.50 with the new system.
(c) The larger the sample size, the smaller is the standard error. Even though the
sample proportion is the same value at 0.42 in (a) and (b), the test statistic is
more negative while the p-value is smaller in (a) compared to (b) because of the
larger sample size in (a).
CHAPTER 9 SOLUTIONS (continued)
9.68 (a) La Quinta Motor Inns commits a Type I error when it purchases a site that is not
profitable.
(b) Type II error occurs when La Quinta Motor Inns fails to purchase a profitable site.
The cost to the Inns when a Type II error is committed is the loss on the amount of
profit the site could have generated had the Inns decided to purchase the site.
(c) The executives at La Quinta Motor Inns are trying to avoid a Type I error by
adopting a very stringent decision criterion. Only sites that are classified as
capable of generating high profit will be purchased.
(d) If the executives adopt a less stringent rejection criterion by buying sites for which
the computer model predicts moderate or large profit, the probability of committing
a Type I error will increase. Many more of the sites the computer model predicts
that will generate moderate profit may end up not being profitable at all. On the
other hand, the less stringent rejection criterion will lower the probability of
committing a Type II error since more potentially profitable sites will be
purchased.
H0: 1 2
CHAPTER 10 SOLUTIONS
H1: 1 2
10.7 (a) The mean amount spent is no higher for men than women.
The mean amount spent is higher for men than women.
(b) Type I error is the error made in concluding that the mean amount spent is higher
for men than women when the mean amount spent is in fact no higher for men
than women.
(c) Type II error is the error made in concluding that the mean amount spent is no
higher for men than women when the mean amount spent is in fact higher for
men than women.
( X 1 X 2 ) ( 1 2 ) ( 2401 1527 ) 0
(d) z = = 14.13 > 2.33 = z.01, reject H0
2 2
2
s1 s 1200 2 1000 2
n1 n 2 600 700
There is evidence that the mean amount spent is higher for men than for women.
10.20
A B DIFFERENCE(B-A)
24 26 2
27 27 0
19 22 3
24 27 3
22 25 3
26 27 1
27 26 -1
25 27 2
22 23 1
D =1.56
sD=1.42
a. H0: μD = 0
H1: μD ≠ 0
D D 1.56 0
t stat = = 3.3 > 2.306 = t8,.025 , so reject H0.
sD 1.42
n 9
There is enough evidence of a difference in the mean summated ratings between the two
brands.
b. You must assume the distribution of the differences between the two ratings is
approximately normal.
c. p-value is 1.0112. The probability of obtaining a mean difference in ratings that deviates
from 0 by at least 3.3 standard deviations in either direction is approximately .0112 if
there is no difference in the mean summated ratings between the two brands.
X 1 X 2 35 25
Test statistic:
p
n1 n2 41 41
= 0.7317
Z STAT 1
p p2 1 2 0.8537 0.6098 0
1 1
p 1 p 0.7317 1 0.7317
1 1
= 2.4924
n1 n2 41 41
Decision: Since ZSTAT = 2.4924 is greater than the critical bound of 1.6449, reject H0.
There is sufficient evidence to conclude that people think an expensive pill works
better than a cheap pill.
(c) Yes, the result in (b) makes it appropriate to claim that people think an expensive pill
works better than a cheap pill.
H0: 1 = 2
H1: 1 2
10.35 (a) where Populations: 1 = Age 36 to 50, 2 = Age above 50
Decision rule: If ZSTAT < – 1.96 or ZSTAT > 1.96, reject H0.
p1 p 2 1 2 0.41 - 0.52 0
Test statistic:
Z STAT
1
p 1 p 0.4651 - 0.465
1 1
= -2.2054
1
n1 n2 200 200
Decision: Since ZSTAT = 2.2054 is less than the lower critical bound of – 1.96, reject
H0. There is sufficient evidence of a significant difference in the proportion who get
their news primarily from newspapers between those respondents 36 to 50 years old
and those above 50 years old.
(b) p-value is 0.0274. The probability of obtaining a difference in proportions that gives
rise to a test statistic that deviates from 0 by 2.2054 or more in either direction is
0.0274 if there is no difference in the proportion who get their news primarily from
newspapers between those respondents 36 to 50 years old and those above 50 yrs old.
n1 n2 200 200
-0.2072 1 2 -0.0128
10.59 (a) H 0 : 1 2 H1 : 1 2
Population: 1 = Democrats, 2 = Republicans
(b) Type I Error: Rejecting the null hypothesis that the proportion of Democrats trusting
the government more than business is no greater than the proportion of Republicans
trusting the government more than business when the proportion of Democrats
trusting the government more than business is indeed no greater than the proportion
of Republicans trusting the government more than business.
(c) Type II Error: Failing to reject the null hypothesis that the proportion of Democrats
trusting the government more than business is no greater than the proportion of
Republicans trusting the government more than business when the proportion of
Democrats trusting the government more than business is indeed greater than the
proportion of Republicans trusting the government more than business.
CHAPTER 13 SOLUTIONS
13.4 (a)
Scatter Diagram
350
300
250
200
Y
150 Sales
100
50
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
X
13.9
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.850061
R Square 0.722603
Adjusted R
Square 0.710543
Standard Error 194.5954
Observations 25
ANOVA
df SS MS F Sign F
7.52E
Regression 1 2268777 2268777 59.91376 08
Residual 23 870949.5 37867.37
Total 24 3139726
Stand
Coeff Err t Stat P-value
Intercept 177.1208 161.0043 1.1001 0.28267
X Variable 1 1.065144 0.137608 7.740398 7.52E08
CHAPTER 13 SOLUTIONS (continued)
13.9 (continued) (a)
Scatter Plot
2500
2000
1000
500
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Size (square feet)
SSR 20,535
13.16 (a) r2 = = 0.684. So, 68.4% of the variation in weekly sales can be
SST 30,025
Y
explained by the variation in shelf space.
Yˆi
n
2
S YX i 1
i
SSE 9490
n2 n2
(b) = 30.8058
10
(c) Based on (a) and (b), the model should be moderately useful for predicting sales.
13.21 (a) r2 = 0.723. So, 72.3% of the variation in monthly rent can be explained by the
S YX 194.6
variation in square footage.
(b)
(c) Based on (a) and (b), the model should be moderately useful for predicting
monthly rent.
H 0 : 1 0 H1 : 1 0
b
13.42 (a)
tSTAT 1 1
7.4
= 4.65 > t0.05 = 2.2281 with 10 degrees of freedom for
Sb1 1.59
0.05 . Reject H0. There is enough evidence to conclude that the fitted linear
13.47 (a) tSTAT 7.74 t0.05/ 2 2.0687 with 23 degrees of freedom for 0.05 . Reject
0.7803 1 1.3497
H0. There is evidence that the fitted linear regression model is useful.
(b)
13.49 (a) Proctor & Gamble’s stock moves only 54% as much as the overall market and is
much less volatile than the market. AT&T’s stock moves only 73% as much as
the overall market and is considered less volatile than the market. The stock of
Disney Company moves 10% more than the overall market and is considered a
little more volatile than the market. Apple’s stock moves 52% more than the
overall market and is considered as volatile. eBay’s stock moves 69% more than
the overall market and is considered as volatile. Ford’s stock moves 186% more
than the overall market and is considered as extremely volatile.
(b) Investors can use the beta value as a measure of the volatility of a stock to assess
its risk.
13.50 (a) (% daily change in DXRLX) = b0 + 2.5 (% daily change in Russell 2000 Index)
(b) If the Russell 2000 Index gains 10% in a year, the DXRLX is expected to gain an
estimated 25% on average.
(c) If the Russell 2000 Index loses 20% in a year, the DXRLX is expected to lose an
estimated 50% on average.
(d) Risk takers will be attracted to leveraged funds, but risk averse investors will stay
away.
13.58 (a) YOU ARE ONLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE APPROXIMATE INTERVAL:
DISREGARD THE hi INFORMATION
(b0 + b1X) t10,.025 (sYX/ n ) = (145+7.4(8)) 2.2281(30.81/ 12 ) =
= 204.2 2.2281(30.81/ 12 ) = 184.38 to 224.02.
(c) Part (b) provides a prediction interval for the individual response given a specific
value of the independent variable, and part (a) provides an interval estimate for
the mean value, given a specific value of the independent variable. Because there
is much more variation in predicting an individual value than in estimating a
mean value, a prediction interval is wider than a confidence interval estimate.
CHAPTER 13 SOLUTIONS (continued)
13.74
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.985774
R Square 0.971751
Adjusted R
Square 0.970182
Standard Error 1.986503
Observations 20
ANOVA df SS MS F sign f
2.152E
Regression 1 2443.466 2443.466 619.1956 15
Residual 18 71.03149 3.946194
Total 19 2514.498
Stand
Coeff Err t Stat P-value
Intercept 24.83453 1.054219 23.55729 5.61E15
X Variable 1 0.140026 0.005627 24.88364 2.15E15
(b) 24.84 is the portion of estimated mean delivery time that is not affected by the
number of cases delivered. For each additional case, the estimated mean delivery
(d) No, 500 cases is outside the relevant range of the data used to fit the regression
equation.
(e) r2 = 0.972. So, 97.2% of the variation in delivery time can be explained by the
variation in the number of cases.
13.75
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.946795
R Square 0.896421
Adjusted R
Square 0.875705
Standard Error 291.7399
Observations 7
ANOVA
df SS MS F Sign F
Regression 1 3683011 3683011 43.27244 0.001219
Residual 5 425560.8 85112.15
Total 6 4108571
Standard
Coefficients Error t Stat P-value
Intercept 3430.943 761.2418 4.507034 0.006358
X Variable 1 0.758937 0.115372 6.578179 0.001219
(c) The slope b1 represents the variable cost per each patient-day.
14.6
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.899273
R Square 0.808692
Adj R Sq 0.788555
Stand Err 158.9041
Observ 22
ANOVA df SS MS F sign F
Regression 2 2028033 1014016 40.15823 1.5E07
Residual 19 479759.9 25250.52
Total 21 2507793
Stand
Coeff Err t Stat P-value
Intercept 156.4304 126.7579 1.234089 0.232217
X Var 1 13.08068 1.759374 7.434851 4.89E07
X Var 2 16.79528 2.963378 5.667613 1.83E05
MSR SSR / k 30 / 2 15
MSE SSE /(n k 1) 120 /10 12
14.10 (a)
n 1
SST 150
1 1 rY2.12
n k 1
2
(e) radj = 0.04
CHAPTER 14 SOLUTIONS (continued)
14.11 (a) 68% of the total variability in team performance can be explained by team skills
after adjusting for the number of predictors and sample size. 78% of the total
variability in team performance can be explained by clarity in expectation after
adjusting for the number of predictors and sample size. 97% of the total
variability in team performance can be explained by both team skills and clarity
in expectations after adjusting for the number of predictors and sample size.
(b) Model 3 is the best predictor of team performance since it has the highest
adjusted r2.
rY2.12 SSR / SST 12.6102 / 13.38473 0.9421 . So, 94.21% of the variation
or larger is virtually zero if H0 is true.
(c)
in the long-term ability to absorb shock can be explained by variation in forefoot
n 1 15 1
absorbing capability and variation in midsole impact.
1 (1 rY2.12 ) 0.93245
n k 1 15 2 1
2
(d) radj 1 (1 0.9421)
r 2 SSR / SST 2, 028, 033 / 2,507, 793 0.8087 . So, 80.87% of the
is less than 0.001 if H0 is true.
(c)
variation
in sales can be explained by variation in radio advertising and variation in
n 1 22 1
newspaper advertising.
For X1: tSTAT b1 / Sb1 0.79116 / 0.06295 12.57 t12 2.1788 with 12
degrees of freedom for = 0.05. Reject H0. There is evidence that the variable X1
contributes to a model already containing X2.
H0: β2=0
H1: β2≠0
For X2: tSTAT b2 / Sb2 0.60484 / 0.07174 8.43 t12 2.1788 with 12
degrees of freedom for = 0.05. Reject H0. There is evidence that the variable X2
contributes to a model already containing X1.
Both variables X1 and X2 should be included in the model.
For X1: tSTAT b1 / Sb1 13.0807 /1.7594 7.43 t19 2.093 with 19 degrees
of freedom for = 0.05. Reject H0. There is evidence that the variable X1
contributes to a model already containing X2.
H0: β2=0
H1: β2≠0
For X2: tSTAT b2 / Sb2 16.7953 / 2.9634 5.67 t19 2.093 with 19 degrees
of freedom for = 0.05. Reject H0. There is evidence that the variable X2
contributes to a model already containing X1.
Both variables X1 and X2 should be included in the model.
CHAPTER 14 SOLUTIONS (continued)
14.41
Multiple R 0.929
R Square 0.864
Adj R sq 0.834
Stand Err 21.318
Observ 12
ANOVA df SS MS F Sign
Regression 2 25935.00 12967.50 28.53 0.00
Residual 9 4090.00 454.44
Total 11 30025.00
Coeff Stand Err t Stat P-value
Intercept 130.00 15.69 8.29 0.00
X Variable 1 7.40 1.10 6.72 0.00
(a)
(b) Holding constant the effect of aisle location, for each additional foot of shelf space, sales
are estimated to increase by a mean of $7.40. For a given amount of shelf space,
a front-of-aisle location is estimated to increase sales by a mean of $45.
(c) YOU ARE ONLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE APPROXIMATE INTERVALS:
(b0 + b1X1+ b2X2) t9,.025 (sYX/ n ) = (130+7.4(8)+45(0)) 2.2622(21.3/ 12 )
= 189.2 2.2622(21.3/ 12 ) = 175 to 203.
(b0 + b1X1 + b2X2) t9,.025 sYX = (130+7.4(8)+45(0)) 2.2622(21.3)
= 189.2 2.2622(21.3) =141 to 237.
(e) H0: β1= β2=0
H1: At least one βj≠0
FSTAT 28.53 F 4.26 . Reject H0. There is evidence of a relationship
between sales and the two independent variables.
(h) The slope here takes into account the effect of the other predictor variable, placement,
rY .12 0.864 . So, 86.4% of the variation in sales can be explained by variation in shelf
while the solution for Problem 13.4 did not.
2
(i)
space and variation in aisle location.
CHAPTER 14 SOLUTIONS (continued)
14.49
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.886397
R Square 0.785699
Adjusted R Square 0.760972
Standard Error 9.634874
Observations 30
ANOVA df SS MS F Sign F
Regression 3 8849.066 2949.689 31.77489 7.53E09
Residual 26 2413.601 92.8308
Total 29 11262.67
Coeff Stand Err t Stat P-value
Intercept 63.9813 16.79967 3.80849 0.000769
X Variable 1 1.125782 0.158856 7.086787 1.59E07
X Variable 2 22.2887 4.31543 5.16488 2.18E05
X Variable 3 8.088047 4.310281 1.876455 0.071861
(b) Holding constant the effect of training method, for each point increase in
proficiency exam score, the end-of-training exam score is estimated to increase
by a mean of 1.1258 points. For a given proficiency exam score, the end-of-
training exam score of a trainee who has been trained by the traditional method
will have an estimated mean score that is 22.2887 points below a trainee that has
been trained using the web-based method. For a given proficiency exam score,
the end-of-training exam score of a trainee who has been trained by the CD-
ROM-based method will have an estimated mean score that is 8.0880 points
above a trainee that has been trained using the web-based method
For X1: tSTAT = 7.0868 and the p-value is virtually 0. Reject H0. Proficiency exam
score makes a significant contribution and should be included in the model.
H0: β2=0
H1: β2≠0
For X2: tSTAT = -5.1649 and the p-value is virtually 0. Reject H0. The traditional
method dummy makes a significant contribution and should be included in the
model.
H0: β3=0
H1: β3≠0
For X3: t 1.8765 and the p-value = 0.07186. Do not reject H0. There is not
sufficient evidence to conclude that there is a difference in the CD-ROM based
method and the web-based method on the mean end-of-training exam scores.
Base on the above result, the regression model should use the proficiency exam
score and the traditional dummy variable.
(i) 2
radj 0.7610
(k) The slope of end-of-training exam score with proficiency score is the same
regardless of the training method.