Early Look Into

Presidential Election 2024

 Trend:
Level of Government performance
How do you (Mr/Mrs) evaluate the performance of the Government of Joko Widodo and KH. Ma’ruf Amin, Are you very
satisfied, quite satisfied, dissatisfied, or not satisfied at all?

Description:
Satisfied = very satisfied + satisfied
Dissatisfied = dissatisfied + not satisfied at all

70,7 70,1 71,7

67,2 68,4
64,0 64,6 65,3 65,3 62,9 63,5
61,3 62,4
58,8

35,4 33,8 34,1 35,7 34,3

30,1 32,7 30,0
27,4 29,3
26,2
20,3 18,5 21,2
15,7 16,9
13,5
5,8 4,9 3,5
1,9 2,7 0,6 2,2 2,0 1,5 1,6 2,3

Puas Tidak puas TT/TJ

Public satisfaction of government performance as seen from the trend of survey results, decreased to 63.5% in September 2022.

SURVEI NASIONAL | PERIODE JUNI 2022 2

 Choices on Government Performance by region

Very satisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied Very Dissatisfied TT/TJ Total

Category Base Line
9.7 53.8 28.7 5.6 2.3 100.0
WILAYAH
Sumatera 20.5 8.4 40.4 43.2 7.6 0.4 100.0
DKI Jakarta & Banten 8.2 17.0 56.0 26.0 1.0 0.0 100.0
Jawa Barat 17.2 3.3 59.5 30.0 7.1 0.0 100.0

Jawa Tengah & DI

16.4 11.0 65.5 19.0 3.5 1.0 100.0
Yogyakarta

Jawa Timur 15.6 2.1 58.4 27.4 0.0 12.1 100.0

Bali, NTB & NTT 4.9 41.7 43.3 11.7 1.7 1.7 100.0
Kalimantan 5.7 5.7 45.7 38.6 10.0 0.0 100.0
Sulawesi 7.4 8.9 55.6 22.2 13.3 0.0 100.0
Maluku & Papua 4.1 20.0 48.0 18.0 12.0 2.0 100.0

The 3 highest regions that expressed satisfaction with the performance of the Government are Bali, NTB and NTT, Central Java
& D.I. Yogyakarta, and DKI Jakarta & Banten.

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 Trend:
Level of Optimism of Indonesian Economy

72,9 71,1
67,7 67,3
62,1 60,5 62,0 63,1
57,4 59,2 59,6
47,6 49,0
43,3
32,8 33,2 31,3 33,6
28,3 29,0 29,9
26,4 26,8 25,8
23,5 22,7 22,5 22,3 21,9
19,3 19,6 20,1
13,0 14,4
11,1 10,5
4,8 6,9 6,6 6,8 7,0 7,0

Nov '21
Mei '20
Feb'20

Jul '20

Jan '21

Mar '21

Jul '21

Jan '22

Apr '22
Jun '20

Feb '22

Jun '22
Feb '21

Sep '22
Optimis Tidak optimis TT/TJ

The trend of public optimism about economic conditions for the next year has decreased quite sharply at 63.1% on the
September ‘22 survey

SURVEI NASIONAL | PERIODE JUNI 2022 4

 Condition Assessment in Law & Politic Sector
In your opinion, how is law enforcement in Indonesia today, In your opinion, how is the implementation/practice of
is it very good, good, bad or very bad? democracy in Indonesia today, is it very good, good, bad or
very bad?

60 70 65
52 53 53 59 59
61
50 47 60
44
50
40 36 35 36
40
30 29
30 25 26
20 21
20
10 8 6 9
6 4 10
3 3 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 2 3 5 5 4
0 0
Sangat Baik Baik Buruk Sangat Buruk TT/TJ Sangat Baik Baik Buruk Sangat Buruk TT/TJ
Feb '22 Apr '22 Jun '22 Sep '22 Feb '22 Apr '22 Jun '22 Sep '22

Regarding the assessment of the condition of the

The public's assessment of law enforcement in Indonesia has not implementation of democratic practices in Indonesia, when
changed significantly from the last few surveys. compared to the previous survey period, there was a
decrease of 67% (very good + good)

SURVEI NASIONAL | PERIODE JUNI 2022 5

SBY vs JKW?
2nd Period of SBY 2nd Period of Jokowi

70,7 70,1 71,7 68,4

67,2
64,0 64,6 65,3 62,4 65,3 62,9
58,8 61,3

35,4 33,8 34,1 35,7

32,7
30,1 29,3 30,0
27,4 26,2
20,3 18,5 21,2
15,7 16,9 13,5
5,8 4,9 3,5
1,9 2,7 0,6 2,2 2,0 1,5 1,6

Puas Tidak puas TT/TJ

Road to 2024

Ganjar Pranowo 31,3

31,2 31,3
Prabowo Subianto 24,4
29,2
Anies R Baswedan 20,6 28,2
Ridwan Kamil 7,2
23,8 24,4
Sandiaga S Uno 2,5 23,0 23,4
Puan Maharani 2,4 20,2 20,0 20,6
19,6
Agus H. Yudhoyono 2,2
Airlangga Hartarto 1,7
Erick Thohir 1,6
Khofifah I. Parawansa 1,1
TT/TJ 4,9 Des '21 Apr '22 Jun '22 Sep '22

0 10 20 30 40 Ganjar Pranowo Prabowo Subianto Anies R Baswedan

Ganjar takes the lead, his electability can still go up because his recognition level relatively lower (78%) than Prabowo & Anies
Baswedan (89%). However, if the election is 2 rounds, Anies & Prabowo tend to gain advantage because the voter segment
among them is more intersecting
Candidates’ electability by region

Agus Khofifah
Airlangga Anies R Erick Ganjar Prabowo Puan Ridwan Sandiaga S
Base Harimurti Indar TT/TJ Total
Category Hartarto Baswedan Thohir Pranowo Subianto Maharani Kamil Uno
Line Yudhoyono Parawansa

2.2 1.7 20.6 1.6 31.3 24.4 2.4 7.2 2.5 1.1 4.9 100.0
WILAYAH
Sumatera 20.5 4.8 1.2 28.4 1.2 22.4 26.0 1.2 4.4 2.8 0.4 7.2 100.0
DKI Jakarta &
8.2 1.0 0.0 37.0 3.0 26.0 22.0 0.0 10.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Banten
Jawa Barat 17.2 0.5 1.9 13.8 1.0 19.5 34.8 1.9 21.9 1.4 0.0 3.3 100.0
Jawa Tengah & DI
16.4 1.0 0.0 7.0 1.5 67.0 12.5 1.5 2.5 2.0 1.0 4.0 100.0
Yogyakarta
Jawa Timur 15.6 1.1 4.7 21.6 0.5 25.8 22.1 7.4 1.1 1.1 5.3 9.5 100.0
Bali, NTB & NTT 4.9 0.0 1.7 6.7 0.0 53.3 20.0 3.3 8.3 3.3 1.7 1.7 100.0
Kalimantan 5.7 5.7 2.9 30.0 0.0 20.0 28.6 2.9 1.4 5.7 0.0 2.9 100.0
Sulawesi 7.4 4.4 1.1 24.4 3.3 16.7 33.3 1.1 5.6 6.7 0.0 3.3 100.0
Maluku & Papua 4.1 2.0 2.0 24.0 10.0 30.0 18.0 0.0 6.0 2.0 0.0 6.0 100.0

Anies has the highest electability in Sumatera, DKI Jakarta& Banten and Kalimantan. While Ganjar leads in Central Java & DI
Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali, NTB & NTT, and Maluku & Papua. And Prabowo’s electability leads in West Java and Sulawesi.
Vice President candidates
If the election is held at this present time, who will be your chosen among this candidates below to be the Vice President?

Sandiaga S Uno 22,3 Airlangga Hartarto 1,8

Susi Pudjiastuti 1,7
Ridwan Kamil 20,8 Tri Rismaharini (Risma) 1,1
Agus H. Yudhoyono 7,2 M Anis Matta 0,9
Gatot Nurmantyo 0,8
Erick Thohir 6,1
Sri Mulyani 0,7
Basuki T Purnama (Ahok) 4,3 Nadiem A Makarim 0,6
Khofifah I. Parawansa 4,1 Moeldoko 0,2
Tito Karnavian 0,2
Andika Perkasa 3,7 Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan 0,2
Puan Maharani 3,2 Budi Gunawan 0,2
Bima Arya Sugiarto 0,2
Mahfud MD 2,1
Zulkifli Hasan 0,1
Muhaimin Iskandar 2,0 TT/TJ 15,5

0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20

Sandiaga Uno and Ridwan Kamil are the highest candidates chosen by the respondents among any other candidates.
Political Parties
If the election is held at this present time, what party that you will vote among these parties mentioned below?
PDIP 21,4
P Gerindra 14,8
P Golkar 9,3
PKB 8,7
PKS 7,6
P Demokrat 6,6
P Nasdem 4,8
PAN 2,7
PPP 2,1
Perindo 2,0
PSI 0,9
PBB 0,6
P Hanura 0,4
P Buruh 0,3
P Garuda 0,2
Parsindo 0,2
P Gelora 0,2
PKN 0,1
PKP 0,1
TT/TJ 17,0
0 5 10 15 20 25
PDIP, Gerindra and Golkar are the highest parties chosen by the respondents.
 What Next ?
NEXT JOKOWI
• Political polarization continues;
• Pro business, technocratic & political
stability but still receive subsidies for
the lowest segment;
• Jokowi's legacy continues with
adjustments;
• A more friendly approach to Human
Rights, Democracy & Environment;
• Focus on increasing human resources
which was delayed during Jokowi's
second term due to Covid
OPPOSITION
• Political polarization continues, only in
different formats;
• Pro business, political stability but the
narrative is populist;
• Some of Jokowi's legacy was canceled
for affirming the contrasting, some
were repackaged to be claimed;
• Infrastructure continues with
environmentally friendly gimmicks;
• Affirmation policies based on
religiousity but the narrative is social
order/security (avoid social
harassment, public order, etc.);
 Election and macro economy
IHSG
Consumption Investation Money Supply
(monthly)
Q before election (+) Not significant (-) Not significant (+) Significant (-) Significant
Q during election (+) Significant (-) Significant (+) Significant (-) Significant
Q after election (-) Not significant (+) Not significant (-) Not significant (+) Significant
Source: Dampak Pemilihan Umum terhadap Indikator Makro Ekonomi, LPEM FEUI

SURVEI NASIONAL | PERIODE JUNI 2022 12

Thank you!