Statistics and Probability Special Topic Geometric Series and Its Connection With Probability

Special Topic:
Geometric Series
Prepared by:
Prof. JULIE E. AVILA Associate Professor, SLSU

Mr. RONEL R. ALDAY Instructor, SLSU – Laboratory School
SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY ⃒ LABORATORY SCHOOL

slsu_labschool@slsu.edu.ph (042) 540-7576 / 0949-873-5043
This lesson …
❑ It recalls the following topics:
▪ The concept of geometric sequences and series.
▪ Calculating the sum of finite and infinite geometric series.
❑ It discusses the use of geometric series in solving some related probability

problems.

Review: Geometric Sequence
The sequence of non – zero numbers:
𝑎1 , 𝑎2 , … , 𝑎𝑛 (if finite)
OR
𝑎1 , 𝑎2 , … , 𝑎𝑛 , … (if infinite)
is said to be a geometric sequence if each number after the first term (i.e. 𝑎1 ) is
found by multiplying the previous number by a constant non – zero number.
NOTE: The constant non – zero number is called the common ratio.

… continued
If a geometric sequence has a “last term” then we say that it is finite sequence.
Otherwise, it is called infinite sequence. Consider the geometric sequence:
𝑎1 , 𝑎2 , … , 𝑎𝑛 , …
with a common ratio 𝑟. Then:

𝑎2 = 𝑎1 𝑟
𝑎3 = 𝑎2 𝑟
𝑎4 = 𝑎3 𝑟
and so on …

Examples of geometric sequences
#1. The following is a geometric sequence with 2 as first term and 2 as the
common ratio:
2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, …
1
#2. The following is a geometric sequence with 5 as first term and as the
3
common ratio:
5 5 5
5, , , , …
3 9 27
2 3
#3. The following is a geometric sequence with as first term and as the
3 4
common ratio:
2 1 3 9
, , , ,…
3 2 8 32
Review: Geometric Series
Geometric series is the sum of all the terms in a geometric sequence. So, if:
𝑎1 , 𝑎2 , … , 𝑎𝑛 , …
is a geometric sequence, then the sum:
𝑎1 + 𝑎2 + ⋯ + 𝑎𝑛 + ⋯
is a geometric series.

Review: Pertinent Formula for Geometric Series
▪ Finite Geometric Series. Given a geometric series whose first term is 𝑎1 ,
common ratio 𝑟, and number of terms 𝑛, then the sum 𝑆 is:
𝑎1 (1 − 𝑟 𝑛 )
𝑆=
1−𝑟
▪ Infinite Geometric Series. Given a geometric series whose first term is 𝑎1 , and
common ratio 𝑟, then the sum 𝑆 is:
𝑎1
𝑆= , 𝑟 <1
1−𝑟

Example 1
Suppose that a fair coin is tossed indefinitely until a head is obtained. What is
probability that you need at least 4 flips to terminate the experiment?

Solution
The process of flipping coin will continue if you keep on getting a tail. It will only
stop once you get the first head. We are concerned with at least 4 flips, then the
sequences of events needed are:
SEQUENCES OF EVENTS Number of Flips Required
𝑇𝑇𝑇𝐻 4
𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝐻 5
𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝐻 6
And so on …

Solution
By multiplication rule, we can calculate the probability of each sequence of
events. Note that individual flips are independent of each other.
SEQUENCES OF EVENTS Number of Probability
Flips
Required
𝑇𝑇𝑇𝐻 4 1 1 1 1 1
× × × =
2 2 2 2 16
𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝐻 5 1 1 1 1 1 1
× × × × =
2 2 2 2 2 32
𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝐻 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
× × × × × =
2 2 2 2 2 2 64
𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝐻 7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
× × × × × × =
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 128
And so on …

Solution
Thus, the required probability is the sum:
1 1 1 1
𝑆= + + + +⋯
16 32 64 128
1 1
This is an infinite geometric series with 𝑎1 = &𝑟 = . Therefore,
16 2
1
𝑎1 16 1
𝑆= = =
1−𝑟 1−1 8
2
Example 2
Suppose that a fair coin is tossed indefinitely until a head is obtained. What is
probability that you need at most 20 flips to terminate the experiment?

Solution
The process of flipping coin will continue if you keep on getting a tail. It will only stop once you
get the first head. We are concerned with 20 flips or fewer, then the sequences of events
needed are:
SEQUENCES OF EVENTS Number of Flips Required
𝐻 1
𝑇𝐻 2
𝑇𝑇𝐻 3
𝑇𝑇𝑇𝐻 4
And so on …
20

Solution
Note that individual flips are independent of each other.
SEQUENCES OF Number of Flips Required Probability
EVENTS
𝐻 1 1
2
𝑇𝐻 2 1 1 1
× =
2 2 4
𝑇𝑇𝐻 3 1 1 1 1
× × =
2 2 2 8
𝑇𝑇𝑇𝐻 4 1 1 1 1 1
× × × =
2 2 2 2 16
And so on …
20 20
1
2

Solution
1 1 1 1
𝑆= + + + + ⋯ + [20𝑇𝐻 𝑇𝐸𝑅𝑀]
2 4 8 16
1 1
This is a finite geometric series with 𝑎1 = 2 , 𝑟 = 2 , & 𝑛 = 20. Therefore,
20
1 1
1 −
𝑎1 (1 − 𝑟 ) 2
𝑛 2
𝑆= = = 0.9999990463 …
1−𝑟 1
1−2

Example 3
Suppose that a fair die is rolled indefinitely until a “6” is obtained. What is
probability that you need at most 15 rolls to terminate the experiment?

Solution
In this problem, process will only terminate until the first “6” is obtained. Since
we are concerned with the probability of 15 rolls or fewer then:
SEQUENCES OF EVENTS Number of Rolls Required
"6" 1
"Not 6“, 6" 2
"Not 6“, "Not 6“, 6" 3
"Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, 6" 4
And so on …
15

Solution
By multiplication rule, we can calculate the probability of each sequence of events. Note that
individual rolls are independent of each other.
SEQUENCES OF EVENTS Number of Rolls Required Probability
"6" 1 1
6
"Not 6“, 6" 2 5 1 5
× =
6 6 36
"Not 6“, "Not 6“, 6" 3 5 5 1 25
× × =
6 6 6 216
"Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, 6" 4 5 5 5 1 125
× × × =
6 6 6 6 1296
And so on …
15 14
5 1
×
6 6
Solution
1 5 25
𝑆= + + + ⋯ + [15𝑇𝐻 𝑇𝐸𝑅𝑀]
6 36 216
1 5
This is a finite geometric series with 𝑎1 = ,𝑟 = ,&𝑛 = 15. Therefore,
6 6
15
1 5
1− 6
𝑛
𝑎1 (1 − 𝑟 ) 6
𝑆= = = 0.935094 …
1−𝑟 5
1−6

Example 4
Suppose that a fair die is rolled indefinitely until a “6” is obtained. What is
probability that you need at least 5 rolls to terminate the experiment?

Solution
In this problem, process will only terminate until the first “6” is obtained. Since we are
concerned with the probability of 5 rolls or more then:
SEQUENCES OF EVENTS Number of Rolls
Required
"Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, "6" 5
"Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, 6" 6
"Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, "6" 7
And so on …

Solution
Thus,
SEQUENCES OF EVENTS Number Probability
of Rolls
Required
"Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, "6" 5 5 5 5 5 1 625
× × × × =
6 6 6 6 6 7776
"Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, 6" 6 5 5 5 5 5 1 3125
× × × × × =
6 6 6 6 6 6 46656
"Not 6“,"Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, 6" 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 1
× × × × × ×
6 6 6 6 6 6 6
And so on …

Solution
625 3125
𝑆= + +⋯
7776 46656
625 5
This is an infinite geometric series with 𝑎1 = 7776 & 𝑟 = 6. Therefore,
625
𝑎1 7776 625
𝑆= = =
1 − 𝑟 1 − 5 1296
6


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Special Topic:

Prof. JULIE E. AVILA Associate Professor, SLSU

SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY ⃒ LABORATORY SCHOOL

❑ It discusses the use of geometric series in solving some related probability

SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY ⃒ LABORATORY SCHOOL

SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY ⃒ LABORATORY SCHOOL

with a common ratio 𝑟. Then:

SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY ⃒ LABORATORY SCHOOL

is a geometric sequence, then the sum:

SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY ⃒ LABORATORY SCHOOL

SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY ⃒ LABORATORY SCHOOL

SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY ⃒ LABORATORY SCHOOL

SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY ⃒ LABORATORY SCHOOL

SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY ⃒ LABORATORY SCHOOL

SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY ⃒ LABORATORY SCHOOL

SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY ⃒ LABORATORY SCHOOL

SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY ⃒ LABORATORY SCHOOL

SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY ⃒ LABORATORY SCHOOL

SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY ⃒ LABORATORY SCHOOL

"Not 6“, 6" 2

"Not 6“, "Not 6“, 6" 3

"Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, 6" 4

SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY ⃒ LABORATORY SCHOOL

SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY ⃒ LABORATORY SCHOOL

SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY ⃒ LABORATORY SCHOOL

"Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, "Not 6“, "6" 5

SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY ⃒ LABORATORY SCHOOL

SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY ⃒ LABORATORY SCHOOL

SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY ⃒ LABORATORY SCHOOL

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