Recommendation ITU-R P.

581-3
(08/2022)

The concept of “worst month”

P Series
Radiowave propagation
ii Rec. ITU-R P.581-3

Foreword
The role of the Radiocommunication Sector is to ensure the rational, equitable, efficient and economical use of the radio-
frequency spectrum by all radiocommunication services, including satellite services, and carry out studies without limit
of frequency range on the basis of which Recommendations are adopted.
The regulatory and policy functions of the Radiocommunication Sector are performed by World and Regional
Radiocommunication Conferences and Radiocommunication Assemblies supported by Study Groups.

Policy on Intellectual Property Right (IPR)

ITU-R policy on IPR is described in the Common Patent Policy for ITU-T/ITU-R/ISO/IEC referenced in Resolution ITU-R 1.
Forms to be used for the submission of patent statements and licensing declarations by patent holders are available from
http://www.itu.int/ITU-R/go/patents/en where the Guidelines for Implementation of the Common Patent Policy for
ITU-T/ITU-R/ISO/IEC and the ITU-R patent information database can also be found.

Series of ITU-R Recommendations

(Also available online at http://www.itu.int/publ/R-REC/en)

Series Title

BO Satellite delivery
BR Recording for production, archival and play-out; film for television
BS Broadcasting service (sound)
BT Broadcasting service (television)
F Fixed service
M Mobile, radiodetermination, amateur and related satellite services
P Radiowave propagation
RA Radio astronomy
RS Remote sensing systems
S Fixed-satellite service
SA Space applications and meteorology
SF Frequency sharing and coordination between fixed-satellite and fixed service systems
SM Spectrum management
SNG Satellite news gathering
TF Time signals and frequency standards emissions
V Vocabulary and related subjects

Note: This ITU-R Recommendation was approved in English under the procedure detailed in Resolution ITU-R 1.

Electronic Publication
Geneva, 2022

© ITU 2022
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, by any means whatsoever, without written permission of ITU.
 Rec. ITU-R P.581-3 1

RECOMMENDATION ITU-R P.581-3

The concept of “worst month”

(1982-1986-1990-2022)

The ITU Radiocommunication Assembly,

considering
a) that performance criteria for radiocommunication systems often refer to “any month” as the
period of reference;
b) that for the design of such systems it is necessary to have statistics of propagation effects that
are relevant to the period of reference of the performance criteria;
c) that consequently there is a need for an unambiguous definition for the period of reference;
d) that the distribution of a propagation variable within a period of time is a random process;
e) that the fraction of time a propagation random variable exceeds a specified threshold (i.e. the
time fraction of excess) is a random variable and is known as the exceedance probability or the
complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF);
f) that the fraction of time a propagation random variable does not exceed (i.e. is less than) a
specified threshold is a random variable and is known as the cumulative probability or the cumulative
distribution function (CDF),
recommends
1 that the month of a calendar year corresponding to the highest exceedance probability or the
lowest cumulative probability for a specified threshold is known as the “worst-month”, which may
be different for different thresholds;
2 that the exceedance probability for the worst month of a year is referred to as “the annual
worst-month exceedance probability”, while the cumulative probability for the worst month of a year
is referred to as “the annual worst-month cumulative probability”;
3 that the statistic relevant for the performance criteria referring to “any month” is the long-
term average annual worst-month exceedance probability or cumulative probability.
NOTE – Recommendation ITU-R P.841 presents a model for the conversion of the average annual
time fraction of excess to the average annual worst-month time fraction of excess. Global values of
the parameters of this model are given, as well as more detailed values for several regions of the
world.