Transform 76: Variable Speed Limits and Queue Warning Messages

Summary: Variable Speed Limit (VSL) and Queue Warning (QW) systems were implemented
as part of an early action strategy for an Active Traffic Management (ATM) program along
Interstate 76. The project limits for VSL and QW systems are from the PA Turnpike (I-276) and
U.S. 202 Interchange to U.S. 1 along I-76. The go-live dates for these systems were June
2021. In general, the department gathered preliminary results for crash and travel time
performance on I-76 for the second half of 2021 (June-December). PennDOT crash data is
published in the spring of each year for the preceding year, so only the first seven months of
VSL operations have official crash data for analysis purposes. Typically, the safety
performance evaluation of specific safety countermeasure will need to evaluate the historical
crash data over a longer period, such as 3-to-5 years of before and after data. The crashes
tend to fluctuate from year to year and it is prudent to find the trend through statistical analysis
such as regression to the mean over a long period of time for safety countermeasure evaluation.
There are very limited numbers of VSL and QW deployments in the nation. The Federal
Highway Administration (FHWA) just published the Crash Modification Factor (CMF) for VSL
deployments in Georgia and Wyoming resulting in 34%-to-29% reduction in total crashes
respectively with significant reductions in rear-end crashes.
(https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/research/safety/21053/21053.pdf)

Overall, crashes in the last six months of 2021 were 10% higher than the five-year pre-
pandemic average from 2015–2019. However, both total and rear-end crashes showed a
decreasing trend from month to month in Montgomery County, which covers 90% of the VSL
corridor and accounts for approximately 90% of the total crashes. This may be attributed to
drivers adjusting to the VSL system following an initial reluctance to change driving behaviors
immediately after the implementation of VSL?

From the travel time and speed harmonization perspective, using vehicle probe data over the
last year, the department has also seen some encouraging trends in end-to-end, average travel
time and travel time reliability along the corridor. Throughout the entire day, travel times have
decreased by approximately 1.5 minutes (7.4%) in the eastbound direction and 30 seconds
(2.9%) in the westbound direction.

To conclude, the department’s project team is seeing encouraging signs in both the crash and
travel time data that motorists are reacting positively to the VSL/QW messages on the roadway.
However, we are still very early into what will be a multi-year evaluation effort. We are
continually refining and investigating areas that can benefit from algorithm optimization or
adjustments to existing devices.
Background:

The first initiative of a multi-year project to implement a comprehensive integrated

corridor management system on I-76 consisted of installing VSL and QW systems. Future
phases include the use of a temporary third lane (flex lane). More information is available at
transform76.com

First Phase Project Highlights:

Variable Speed Limit/Queue Warning (VSL/QW) system includes a network of 72 VSL

signs (all new), 49 roadside vehicle detectors (27 new), and 13 changeable message boards (9
new). Construction was completed in 2020 and the system was activated at the end of May
2021.

There are two primary goals for the VSL/QW system:

• Reduce rear-end crashes, which occur at very high rates on I-76; and
• Harmonize traffic flow to reduce the stop-and-go conditions and decrease travel times
that prevail during peak times of the day.

The VSL/QW system operates through PennDOT’s statewide traffic operations software and
automatically posts speed limits and queue warning messages based on vehicle data from I-76.
This is done using a rules-based algorithm that generally looks for two things:

• Is there an approaching slowdown or stopped condition? If there is, the algorithm will
begin to taper down the speed limits 1 mile upstream of the detected slow down, in
increments of 5 to 10 mph per mile (2 consecutive signs) to a minimum speed of 35
mph.
• QW signs are activated to alert motorists that there is a reduced speed limit or
slow/stopped traffic ahead, and approximately how far away it is.

Results to Date
In general, the department has gathered preliminary results for crash and travel time
performance on I-76 for the second half of 2021 (June-December). PennDOT crash data is
published in the spring of each year for the preceding year, so only the first seven months of
VSL operations have official crash data for analysis purposes. Data was compared to the same
months in 2020 as well as to the period from 2015-2019. Due to the effects of the pandemic,
the 2020 data is not a reliable comparison since travel patterns had changed so substantially.

Safety Results So Far:

• Overall crashes in the last six months of 2021 were 10% higher than the five-year pre-
pandemic average from 2015–2019.
o Crashes were 9% higher in Montgomery County and 11% higher in Philadelphia
County. All were within the range of observed crashes over the six-year
lookback period.
• Rear-end crashes were up 4% in Montgomery County and down 26% in Philadelphia
County vs. the pre-pandemic average.
• Although overall crashes were higher for the 7-month period, both total and rear-end
crashes showed a decreasing trend in Montgomery County, which covers 90% of the
VSL corridor and accounts for ~90% of the total crashes.
• Total crashes were lower in each successive month and overall rear-ends showed a
persistent downward trend when compared to the five-year average for each month
o Generally, when changing roadway behavior, an increase or lag in response of
motorist’s actions and safety can be evident in the beginning due to human
routine or reluctancy to change. The downward trend below may be evidence
that motorists are adopting the strategies:
 • Data for Philadelphia County’s 1-mile stretch of the corridor is “noisier” than Montgomery
County and outside corridor traffic conditions may be contributing factors. See the
charts below:

Travel Time Results So Far:

• Using vehicle probe data over the last year, we have seen some encouraging trends in
end-to-end, average travel time and travel time reliability along the corridor. Throughout
the entire day, travel times have decreased by approximately 1.5 minutes (7.4%) in the
eastbound direction and 30 seconds (2.9%) in the westbound direction.
• The biggest gains were seen in the eastbound PM peak hour, which has reduced travel
times by approximately five minutes (16.3%) and the Westbound AM Peak hour, which
has reduced travel times by approximately four minutes (15.6%).
o The other two directional peak hours have remained relatively unchanged
compared to the two years pre-pandemic.
• We are still trying to determine the causation of the benefits that are being seen in two of
the four peak hours but believe that it is demonstrating a harmonization of the stop-and-
go conditions that dominate the peak hours in the reverse commuting directions.
o Anecdotally, our team has observed a growing conformance with the posted
speed limits as drivers are becoming more used to the system and as lower
speed limits are reinforced by observed slowdowns ahead.

Eastbound - AVG Travel Time

2018 2019 2020 2021
Overall Weekdays 19.81 20.04 16.38 18.45
AM Peak 20.57 20.8 16.65 20.92
PM Peak 31.35 32.91 21.52 26.89

Westbound - AVG Travel Time

2018 2019 2020 2021
Overall Weekdays 19.29 19.04 15.81 18.61
AM Peak 24.14 24.44 16.11 20.5
PM Peak 25.35 25.74 19.16 25.93