Arabic Sciences and Philosophy, vol. 2 (1992) pp.

299-306

AL-BlRUNi AND THE MATHEMATICAL TREATMENT

OF OBSERVATIONS

OSCAR SHEYNIN

1 THE TWO BRANCHES OF THE THEORY OF ERRORS

The classical theory of errors can be divided into stochastic and

determinate parts, or branches. The birth of the first of these
became inevitable after Bradley's idea of cultivating astronomy
and natural science in general by "regular series of observa-
tions and experiments"1 became universally accepted. Such
scholars as Lambert, Simpson, Lagrange, Daniel Bernoulli and
Euler were responsible for the development of the stochastic
theory of errors while Laplace and Gauss completed its con-
struction. About fifty or sixty years ago it was included into
mathematical statistics.
The main problem of the stochastic theory of errors consists
in adjusting observations and estimating the precision of the
observations themselves and those quantities which are deter-
mined by them. In the case of direct observations of an
unknown constant, x, from observations
(xx s x2 s;... s x j
2,

we have to derive a value which would be optimal in one or

another stochastic sense. I shall not restate this problem in
modern statistical language or formulate the corresponding
problem for the case of indirect observations involving several
unknowns and a redundant number of observations.
The determinate part of the theory of errors studies the
influence of known errors of observation on the final result.
Thus, how should observers organize their work in order to
eliminate systematic errors to the highest extent possible?

1
J. Bradley, "A letter... concerning an apparent motion observed in some of the
fixed stars," in S.P. Rigaud, Miscellaneous works and correspondence of J. Bradley,
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 45, (Oxford, 1832), pp. 17-
41, see on p. 17.
 300 OSCAR SHEYNIN
Again, given the error of angle measurements, what kind of tri-
angulation figures would enable the astronomer to calculate
the length of a meridian arc with maximal accuracy? Elements
of the determinate theory of errors can be found in the works
of Ptolemy. Still, properly speaking, only the differential calcu-
lus enabled scientists to develop it. Notably Cotes2 proved 28
theorems relating to plane and spherical triangles, deducing
the errors of their elements as calculated from their observed
(and thus error-burdened) angles and sides.
To ensure historical perspective, I should say that we owe the
division of errors into systematic and random ones to Daniel
Bernoulli3 but that even ancient scholars understood that vari-
ous types of errors propagated themselves in different ways. I
would argue that the determinate branch of the error theory
should be now included into R.A. Fisher's design of experi-
ments.
Al-Biruni was an outstanding natural scientist. Not surpris-
ingly, elements of both branches of the theory of errors are pre-
sent in his works. What is completely unexpected, however, is
the richness of his thought on the subject. After describing al-
Biruni's level of understanding of both branches of the theory
of errors, we might be better prepared to accept that he was
perhaps the only Arab scholar to surpass Ptolemy and to be a
worthy forerunner of Galileo and Kepler.
In what follows, I draw on my previous contribution,4 adding
some new material.

2 THE DETERMINATE BRANCH OF THE THEORY OF ERRORS

2.1 Ptolemy5

Ptolemy discussed the relative merits of various methods of

observation. He noted that the position of the moon can be
2
R. Cotes, "Aestimatio errorum in mixta mathesi per variationes partium trianguli
plant etsphaerici (1722)," in Opera miscellanea (London, 1768), pp. 10-58.
3
O.B. Sheynin, "D. Bernoulli's work on probability," in Studies in the History of
Statistics and Probability (London, 1977), vol. II, pp. 105-32, see in § 5.2.
4
O.B. Sheynin, "Mathematical treatment of astronomical observations: a histori-
cal essay," Archive for History of Exact Sciences, 11 (1973): 97-126.
6
Ptolemy, Almagest, Engl. transl. by R.C. Taliaferro, Great Books of the Western
World 16, (Chicago, 1952), pp. 5-465.
 THE MATHEMATICAL TREATMENT OF OBSERVATIONS 301
6
found only by observing lunar eclipses. He also demanded that
errors of observation be eliminated as completely as possible.7
On the whole, Ptolemy possessed a clear-cut notion about vari-
ous errors of observation and about their effects. Accordingly,
he left proposals concerning both the selection of methods and
circumstances of observation and the combination of different
observations with each other.

2.2 Al-Blrunl8
Al-BIruni reasonably believed that calculations were difficult
and fraught with errors.
9
He expressed himself on this subject
in many instances. Thus he noted that "the use of sines engen-
ders errors which become appreciable if they are added to
errors caused by the use of small instruments and errors made
by human observers." Obviously, al-BIruni was the first to rea-
son on the propagation of computational errors and on the
combined effect of observational and computational errors,
though of course he was unable to make relevant numerical
estimations.
Other passages from the10
same source testify that al-BIruni,
like Ptolemy before11
him, demanded elimination or decrease of
systematic errors; compared the accuracy of various methods
of observation;12 and revealed an error of astronomical calcula-
tions (a systematic 13error) due to the14inaccuracy of the astro-
nomical model used. In one instance, he discussed the correc-
tions made in preliminary computations to the lengths of the
routes between towns. He recommended allowing for the incli-
nation and meandering of the routes by means of non-instru-
mental surveying.

6
/6wf.,Book4, §l,p. 108.
"Ibid., Book4, §9, pp. 135-7.
8
Al-Birunl, The Determination of the Coordinates of Positions for the Correction of
Distances between Cities, Engl. transl. by Jamal Ali (Beirut, 1967).
9
Ibid., on pp. 51 and 152.
10
Cf. § 2.1.
11
Al-BIruni, Correction of Distances between Cities, pp. 39 and 155.
12
Ibid., p. 129.
13
Ibid., pp. 115-16.
14
Ibid., pp. 191 and 199.
302 OSCAR SHEYNIN
Al-BIruni expressed similar thoughts in his al-Qanun al-
Mas Xidl.15 This source includes a discussion regarding the elim-
ination of systematic errors through an appropriate programme
of observations;16 a short notice on correcting the lengths of
routes between towns;17 and the same remark as the one above
on the inaccuracy of a certain astronomical model.18
Finally, I turn to metrology. Al-BIruni is known to have mea-
sured the density of a number of metals. His account of this
work is19 recorded in al-Khazini's Book of the Balance of
Wisdom which incorporated an extract from al-Biruni's trea-
tise On the Ratios Between Metals and Precious Stones. In this
source al-Blruni20 enumerated various errors taking place in
weighing.

2.3 Early European history

A number of discoveries made by European scientists in the
sixteenth and seventeenth centuries had to do with the deter-
minate branch of the theory of errors. In 1574, Bourne21
advised mariners to use the astrolabe in a manner which guar-
anteed them against a certain error. In 1609, bearing in mind
purely astronomical work, Kepler22 reasoned on how best to
determine unknown stations in land surveying and, in 1673,
Huygens studied the possibility of decreasing the errors of
clock-works, and of accurately observing the free fall of bodies.23
16
Al-Biruni, "al-Qanun al-Mas'udi," in Selected Works, Russian transl. by P.G.
Bulgakov, M.M. Rozhankaya and B.A. Rozenfeld (Tashkent, 1973-76), vol. V; part 1
of the volume (1973) comprises Books 1-5 of the Qanun and part 2 (1976) includes
the remainder.
16
Ibid., Book 7, chap. V, p. 778.
17
Ibid., Book 6, chap. II, p. 614.
18
Ibid., Book 4, chap. XV, pp. 366-7.
19
Al-Khazini, "The book of the balance of wisdom (Kniga vesov mudrosti),"
Russian transl. by Rozhanskaya and I.S. Levinova, Nauchnoye nasledstvo (Moscow,
1983), vol. VI, pp. 15-140.
w
Ibid., p . 106.
21
W. Bourne, A Regiment for the Sea and other writings on navigation (1574), ed.
E.G.R. Taylor (Cambridge, 1963), pp. 135-314, esp. on p. 208.
22
J. Kepler, Neue Astronomie (1609), Ubers. und eingeleit. M. Caspar (Munich and
Berlin, 1929), p. 209.
23
C. Huygens, "Horologium oscillatorium sive de motu pendulorum (1673)," in
(Euvres completes (La Haye, 1934), t. XVIII, pp. 27-438, see part 1 and part 4,
Proposition 26 respectively.
 THE MATHEMATICAL TREATMENT OF OBSERVATIONS 303
Insofar as these scholars did not use the differential calcu-
lus24 their recommendations were not founded on anything
unknown to al-Birunl. Even Galileo's study of the sunspots25
(1613), extremely important as it was, did not present any
methodological novelties. Galileo separated the general move-
ment of the spots into a regular component (their rotation with
the sun itself) and a random component (their movement rela-
tive to the sun's disk) and he estimated rather accurately the
period of the rotation of the sun (one lunar month; the modern
figure is 24.5-26.5 days).

3 THE STOCHASTIC BRANCH OF THE THEORY OF ERRORS

3.1 Ptolemy26

Supposing that the "true" value of an astronomical constant

was situated between 47°40' and 47°45', Ptolemy took it to be
47°42'39".27 His decision did not violate common sense since it
differed but insignificantly from the arithmetical mean of the
two bounds and was consistent with the properties of usual
random errors (equal probability of positive and negative errors
and greater probability of lesser errors). Ptolemy's value coin-
cided with the one accepted previously by Erastosthenes and
Hipparchus, but it seems that in any case Ptolemy would not
have essentially departed from the arithmetical mean.

3.2 Al-Biruni28

Al-Biruni understood that random errors were inevitable.

29
He
said so with respect to astronomical observations and time-
keeping:30 a) "The same thing comes out in different amounts
[observations scatter], because celestial observation is a very
24
Cf. § 1.
25
G. Galilei, History and Demonstrations Concerning Sunspots (1613), transl. with
introd. and notes by S. Drake (New York, 1957), pp. 88-144.
26
Ptolemy, Almagest.
"Ibid., Book 1, § 12, p. 26.
28
Al-Biruni, Correction of Distances between Cities.
23
Ibid., p. 51.
30
Ibid., pp. 155-6.
304 OSCAKSHEYNIN
delicate matter..." b) "Some... measure [time] with precision by
continuous motions... and, as a rule, this has been done by the
use of water. But it [the water] is subject to variation in many
respects. For instance, the purity and density depend on its
sources... Also, it is subject to accidental variations, by varia-
tion in the quality of the air..." Elsewhere al-BIruni stressed
that the water used in determining the densities of metals
should be taken from the same source and at the same season if
not time.31
Another passage on the inevitability of errors occurs in al-
Qanun al-Mas'udi.32 Instruments, al-BIruni declared, seldom
furnish results without some mistake. The inaccuracy, he
added, is unavoidable due to the smallness of the instruments
and the changes in natural objects ["in artifacts" would have
been more correct], for example the [thermal] deformations
occurring in the instruments.33
Al-BIruni believed that random errors could be either posi-
tive or negative and it is possible that he supposed both these
cases to be equally likely. Thus he maintained: "Now all the tes-
timonies that we have adduced point out collectively that the
[obliquity of the ecliptic] is... The slight excess or
34
defect in some
of the estimations is due to the instrument." This passage
obviously means that al-BIruni attempted to collect several
observations; to discuss them qualitatively; and to choose a
more or less comfortable and common-sense single value for
the constant sought. Also, it seems that the principle of the
arithmetical mean was not generally recognized in his time.
Indeed: "As to the latitude of Bagdad different observers have
found that it is neither less than 33°20' nor greater than 33°30',
and the approved one is 33°25', because it is also the mean
between those two."35
As compared with modern practice, there was, nevertheless,
an essential difference, viz., the use of some, possibly inferior
observations, for rough checking only. Thus, al-Biruni36 col-
lected four observations of solar altitudes and azimuths at
31
Cf. al-Khazini, "Book of the balance of wisdom," p. 112.
32
Al-Biruni, "al-Qanun al-Mas'udi," Book 6, chap. IV, p. 631.
33
Ibid., chap. VI, pp. 636-7.
34
Al-Biruni, Correction of Distances between Cities, p. 83.
36
Ibid., p. 203.
36
Ibid., on pp. 46-51.
 THE MATHEMATICAL TREATMENT OF OBSERVATIONS 305
Jurjaniyya, the capital of Khwarizm, from whence he computed
the corresponding values of its latitude. Then, however, he put
on record a fifth observation, that of the altitude of the summer
solstice. This crucial observation, simplest in itself and
demanding no calculations at all, furnished a fifth value of the
latitude sought, a value which al-Blrunl, disregarding all the
former ones, called his "reliable estimate."
According to modern standards, each observation, including
the rejected ones, should be recorded. The history of the prob-
lem of selecting observations begins at least with Ptolemy who
recommended to select the best ones: a) "Of the three eclipses
we have chosen from those most carefully observed by us..." b)
"... for the periodic movements of the star... we took two sure
observations from among our own and from among the old
ones."37 Ptolemy's point of view gave birth to a tradition of free-
dom, excessive by our standards, of selecting observations
while leaving the rejected ones unknown to anyone except the
astronomer himself. Al-Blrunl did not put on record his opinion
on this subject. However, judging by his method of determining
the latitude of Jurjaniyya (above), and by his attitude towards
treating observations in metrology (below), I am inclined to
believe that he did not entirely imitate Ptolemy.
While recording at least some of the measurements of the
densities of metals made by al-Blrunl, al-Khazini38 indicated in
each instance the final accepted value. In some cases, al-Blrunl
chose the mode of the empirical distribution. Thus, for brass
most observations furnished a certain number and "we [al-
Biruni] assumed this number." In other cases, al-Blrunl chose
either 1/2 (Xi + x j or an unspecified estimator situated
between xx and x,,. It is possible that he did not feel himself
compelled to follow a definite rule; the more so, since metrology
differs from astronomy and geodesy in that observations of
equal weight are easier to accomplish and changes in external
conditions (e.g., in air temperature and pressure) either do not
happen or are easier to detect. I also note that in many
instances al-Blrunl recorded his xt and xn if not all the observa-
tions.

37
Ptolemy, Almagest, Book 4, § 6, p. 123; Book 10, § 4, p. 316.
38
Al-Khazini, "The book of the balance of wisdom," pp. 60-2.
306 OSCAR SHEYNIN
3.3 Early European history
Galileo was the 39
first to formulate all the properties of usual
random
40
errors. It is possible that al-Birunl knew these proper-
ties, but what was undoubtedly new was Kepler's achieve-
ments in dealing with observations, a) To find the actual paths
of the planets, he deliberately corrupted his data by small arbi-
trary quantities,
41
possibly selected with regard for their stochas-
tic properties. Thus, he in effect used the Monte Carlo method
for finding out whether the Ptolemaic system of the world was
consistent with the data (with the Tychonic observations), b)
Kepler also used the minimax principle for the same purpose;
he came to reject the Ptolemaic system because (even apart
from physical considerations) the approximately calculated
minimax error of the42 fit of the system exceeded the possible
error of observations.
The same source contained a special remark. Kepler43 col-
lected four values of the right ascension of Mars (x^ x2, x3 and
x4) and, giving no explanation, assumed a certain quantity as
the "Mittlerer Betrag recht und schlecht" (the original Latin
expression was medium ex aequo et bono). J.J. Filliben44 recon-
structed Kepler's procedure as rejecting x4 and assuming a dou-
ble weight for x2. This is in keeping with the meaning of the
Latin expression, "in fairness and justice," whereas its German
translation (above) was patently wrong. However, the most
interesting point is this: medium ex aequo et bono is, or at least
was, a term of law and besides having a strict sense (above), it
also carries an implication: "rather than according to the letter
of the law." I infer that in Kepler's time the arithmetical mean
was already the law, at least in astronomy.
The story of the arithmetical law did not end with Kepler,
but I leave it at that.
39
G. Galilei, Dialogue Concerning the Two Chief World Systems (1632), transl. by
S. Drake (Berkeley and Los Angeles, 1962).
40
Cf. § 3.2.
41
Kepler, Neue Astronomie, p. 197.
"Ibid., p. 166.
43
Ibid., onp. 113
44
See C. Eisenhart's discussion of invited papers on the history of statistics, 40th
Session of International Statistical Institute 1975, Bulletin ISI, 46 (1976): 355-7.