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Urban transportation & planning 15CV751
MODULE 3
TRIP GENERATION
The first phase of transportation planning process deals with surveys, data collection and inventory. The
next phase is the analysis of the data so collected and building models to describe the mathematical
relationship that can be discerned in the trip making behaviour. The analysis and model building phase
start with the step commonly known as trip generation.
Trip generation is a general term used in the transportation planning process to cover the field of
calculating the number of trip ends in a given area. The trip generation aims at predicting the total
number of trips generated and attracted to each zone of the study area. In other words, this stage
answers the questions to “how many trips” originate at each zone, from the data on household and
socioeconomic attributes. The objective of the trip generation stage is to understand the reasons behind
the trip making behaviour and to produce mathematical relationships to synthesize the trip-making
pattern on the basis of the observed trips, land-use data and household characteristics.
Trip
Trip is a one-way person movement by a mechanised mode of transport, having two trip ends, an origin
and destination. The first activity in travel-demand forecasting is to identify the various trip types
important to a particular transport-planning study. The trip types studied in a particular area depend on
the types of transport-planning issues to be resolved. The first level of trip classification used normally is
a broad grouping into home-based and non-home-based trips.
Types of trip [Classification of Trips]

Trips can be classified by trip purpose, trip time of the day, and by person type.
Home Based Trip and Non Home-based trips
If either origin or destination of a trip is the home of the trip maker then such trips are called home-
based trips Typical home-based trips are the journey to work, shopping, and school. The amount of
home-based trips varies from 80 to 90 percent of total travel.
Non- Home-based trips are those trips that do not have either the origin or destination end at a
household Examples of non-home-based trips are trips between work and shop and business trips
between two places of employment.
Home Based Trip: One of the trip end is home.

Example: A trip from home to office.
Non Home based trips: None of the trip end is home.
Example: A trip from office to Shopping Mall.
The above definitions are further classified by the following examples. Consider a trip from home to
work and the return trip from work to home. Both these trips are home based trips, because one end of
the trip is at home. Both these trips are considered to have been generated at the home zone and
Chandrashekar Gowda K. N, Asst, Prof. Dept. of Civil Engg., MIT MYSORE Page 1
attracted to the work zone. We thus have two work-purpose trip end generations in the home zone and
two work- purpose attractions in the work zone.
Trip generations and trip attractions
A generation is the home end of any trip that has one end at home (home based trips) and is the origin
of a trip with neither end home based (non home based trip). i.e., Trip generation is defined as all the
trips of home based or as the origin of the non home based trips. An attraction is the non-home end of a
home based trip and is the destination of a trip with neither end home based.
To understand with an example consider a single worker on a typical working day making a trip from his
house which is in zone P to his office in Zone Q. Thus his trip origin will be zone P and trip destination
will be zone Q. For the return trip from office to house his trip origin will be zone Q and trip Destination
will be Zone P. Thus from the above Example it can be understood that the term Origin and Destination
are defined in terms of direction of the trip while Production and Attraction in terms of land use
associated with each trip end. Trip Production is the home end of home based trip and is the origin of
trip of non-home based trip. Trip Attraction is the non-home end of home based trip and is the
destination of a non-home based trip.
0 Trips are made for different purposes and a classification of trips by purpose is necessary. The
following are some of the important classes of trip purposes:
 Work Trips
 School Trips
 Shopping Trips
 Social- recreational Trips
 Other Trips
The first two trips are mandatory trips while other trips are discretional trips. The other trip class
encompasses all the trips made for less routine purpose such as health bureaucracy etc.
Person-type based trips: The travel behavior of an individual is mainly dependent on its Socio-Economic
attributes. Following are the categories which are usually employed.
 Income Level- Poor, Middle Class, Rich
 Car Ownership- 0,1,2,3
 Household Size- 1,2,3,4... etc
Factors influencing Trip Generation and Attraction
1. Income
Family income which represents its ability to pay for a journey affects the number of trips generated by
a household. A general trend is that the higher the income the higher is the trip generation rate.
2. Car ownership
A car represents easy mobility, and hence a car owing household will generate more trips than a non-
car-owing household. By the same reasoning, the more cars there are in the household, the more the
number of trips generated. Of course, number of cars owned is itself related to the income of the family,
which has been listed earlier as a factor.
3. Family size and composition
The bigger the family, the more trips there are likely to be generated. Apart from the size, the
composition of the family itself is important. For instance, if both the husband and wife are employed,
the trips generated will be more than when only the husband is employed. If there are many school-
going children, the number of school-purpose trips will be large. The age structure of the family also
governs the trip rates. Old persons are not expected to generate as many trips as younger ones.
4. Land use Characteristics
Different land uses produce different trip rates. For example, a residential area with a high density of
dwellings can produce more trips than one with a low density of dwellings. On the other hand, low
density areas may represent dwellings of the well-off society, which may produce a large number of
private car trips. The rateable value of the dwelling and type of dwelling units affect the trip generation
rates. The most important assumption made in transportation planning is that the amount of travel is
dependent on land use.
5. Distance of the zone from the town center
The distance of the zone from the town center is an important determinant of the amount of travel that
people might like to make to the town center. The farther the town center, the less the number of trips
are likely to be.
6. Accessibility to public transport system and its efficiency
The accessibility to a public transport system and its efficiency determine to some extent the desire of
persons to make trips. An easily accessible and efficient public transport system generates more trips.
7. Employment opportunities, floor space in the industrial and shopping units and offices
The employment potentially of an industrial or shopping unit or an office establishment directly governs
the trip attraction rate. Similarly, another factor to which the trip attraction rate can be related is the
floor space in the premises of industries, shops and offices.
METHODS OF TRIP GENERATION ESTIMATION
Trip generation models are based upon the following methods:

1. Regression Analysis
• Zonal Regression methods
• Household Regression methods
2. Category Analysis
3. Person trip models
MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS
The most common technique employed in establishing trip generation is multiple linear regression
which fits mathematical relationships between dependent and independent variable. In the case of trip
generation equation, the dependent variable is the number of trips and the independent variable are
the various measurable factors that influence trip generation like land use and socio-economic
characteristics. The general form of the equation can be expressed in the following form:
Yp=a1X1+a1X2+a3X3+…….anXn+U
 Yp= number of trips for specified purpose p
 X1, X2, X3,……., Xn=independent variables relating to for example, land-use, socio economic
factors etc.
 a1, a2, a3,……, an= Coefficients of the respective independent variables X1, X2, X3,……., Xn,
obtained by linear regression analysis
 U= Distribution term, which is a constant and representing that portion of the value of Yp not
explained by the independent variables.
The equation of the above form is developed from the present-day data pertaining to independent
variables and dependent variables and the dependent variables, using statistical techniques of “least
squares “fitting. The equation thus developed is used for determining the future values of trips, knowing
the estimated future values of the independent variables.
Example:
Y = 2.18 + 3.404 A + 0.516 H + 0.0119 X1 – 0.343 X2
Where,
Y= average trips per occupied dwelling unit
A= car ownership
H=household size
X1= social rank index
X2= urbanization index
Assumptions in Multiple Linear Regression Analysis and their validity in trip generation analysis
The statistical theory of Multi linear regression analysis is based on the following important assumptions
1. All the variables are independent of each other
2. All the variables are normally distributed
3. All the variables are continuous
4. A liner relationship exists between the dependent variable and the independent variable:
5. Influence of independent variable is additive that is the inclusion of each variable in the equation
contributes a distinct portion of trip numbers.
1 It is difficult to ensure that the above basic assumptions are satisfied in most of the trip
generation studies. Firstly, the so-called independent variables in the regression equations are not truly
independent of each other, and some sort of correlation normally exists among them. The variables
such as car-ownership, family income, residential density etc. are all inter-related to certain extent.
Secondly, many of these variables are, strictly speaking, not normally distributed. Finally, some of them
are not continuous variables, an example being the car ownership. The number of cars owned by a
family can only be a discrete variable.
Criteria for Evaluation of Regression Equations
The following criteria should generally be applied in evaluating and selecting a regression equation
1. The multiple correlation coefficient should have a value at least 0.75 or even higher. A value close to
1.0 shows a very good correlation
2. The standard error of the estimate of the dependent variable should be sufficiently small.
3. The F test should be carried out to examine evidence of the degree of certainty that a meaning full
relationship exists between the dependent and independent variables.
4. The equation should have accuracy, validity, simplicity and sharpness and constancy.
Zonal Regression and Household Regression Methods (Aggregated and Disaggregated Analysis)
Multiple linear regression analysis of two types:
1. Aggregated, or zonal least-square regression, where each traffic zone is treated as one
observation.
2. Disaggregated, or Household least-square regression, where each household is treated as an
observation.
Zonal Regression Method (Aggregated Analysis)
In the case of zonal regression, the study area is divided into a number of zones. Each traffic zone is
treated as one observation. The aggregated analysis which is most widely used is based on the
assumption that contiguous households exhibit a certain amount of similarity in travel characteristics.
The dependent variable is some measure of the zonal trip ends and the independent variables are
typically the number of households, number of workers, number of cars, total incomes etc.
Alternatively, the variables are expressed as mean values for the zones. This assumption allows the data
in a zone to be grouped and the mean values of the independent variable used in further calculation.
Sufficiently large survey data is needed to get reliable results.
Disadvantages of Zonal Regression Models:
Among the prominent drawbacks of the zonal regression models are the followings
i) The analysis masks the variation in the data
ii) Inefficient utilization of data.
iii) Dependency of the models on the type of zoning system adopted.
iv) Inadequate capabilities for prediction of situations where real differences exist between calibrated
and forecast data.
v) The zone sample mean is not a reliable estimate of the population mean.
vi) The assumption that zones are to a large extent homogeneous with respect to characteristics is not
found to be generally correct. The within zone variance associated with travel demand are large in
relation to between zone variances. In other words, these parameters exhibit a degree of heterogeneity
within zones.
vii) Sometimes there are ecological correlations associated with zonally aggregated relationships.
viii) Simple reduction in zone size leads to enormous increase in sampling errors which are not
permitted, besides a large number of smaller zones present problems at subsequent stages of trip
distribution and assignment models. Therefore, this, severely restricts the usefulness of models for small
scale planning applications.
Household least squares regression analysis (Disaggregated Analysis):
The logical extension to the arguments favouring a reduction in zone size is to develop data base that
makes no reference to zone boundaries. One consideration is to treat this at household level. The
dominating Influence of the head of household implies that the trip making activity of the household
members can only be accurately predicted through a knowledge of total household characteristics. It
would appear, then, that the household can reasonably be considered as a behavioural trip-making unit
and therefore, treated as the basis for the trip end estimating procedure.
In the household regression analysis, each household is considered as a separate input data, so that the
wide observed variation in household characteristics and household trip making behaviour is
incorporated into the models. The attempt, here, is to explain the total variation between households,
as against the variation between zones, explained by zonal models.
The variables considered are between the number of trips per household per day and the household
characteristics such as family size (persons), employees per household, car ownership per household,
household income etc.
Compared to aggregated analysis, disaggregated analysis produces better results and is considered more
likely to be stable over time and to provide more reliable future estimates.
Disadvantages of multiple-linear regression analysis technique

Some of the disadvantages associated with the assumptions made in the linear regression technique are
as follows:
 The equation derived is purely empirical in nature and fails to establish a meaningful
relationship between the dependent and independent variables.
 The technique is based on the premise that the regression coefficients initially established will
still remain unchanged in the future and can be used in the regression equation for predicting
future travel. How far the prediction is valid in future is a main question
 Difficulties arise in evaluation the effect of statistical problems relating to non-linearity of the
response surface and high correlation amongst the explanatory variables.
CATEGORY ANALYSIS OR CROSS–CLASSIFICATION
The method is based on estimating the response (e.g. the number of trip productions per household for
a given purpose) as a function of household attributes. The average response or average value of the
dependent variable is determined for certain defined categories of the independent variables. A multi-
dimensional matrix defines the categories, each dimension in the matrix representing one independent
variable. The independent variables themselves are classified into a definite number of discrete class
intervals.
Assumptions
1) The household is the fundamental unit in the tri generation process, and most journeys begin or end
in response to the requirements of the family.
2) The trip generated by the household depend upon the characteristics of that household and its
location relative to its required facilities such as shops, school and work place. Household with one set
of characteristics generate different rates of trips from households with other set of characteristics.
3) Three prime factors affecting the amount of travel a household produces: car-ownership, income and
household structure. Within each of the three factors, limited number of ranges
are established to describe the trip generating capacity of a household by a limited number of
categories.
4) Trip generation rates are relatively stable over a time so long as factors external to the household are
the same as when the trips were first measured.
The cross-classification model is based on the assumption that the number of trips generated by similar
households or households belonging to the sample category is the same.
Critical appraisal of the category analysis technique
Advantages:
 Cross-classification groupings are independent of the zone system of the study area.
 The whole concept of the household trip making is simplified in this technique. It categorizes the
household according to certain socio-economic characteristics and this appears rational.
 Unlike regression analysis technique, no mathematical relationship is derived between trip
making and house hold characteristics. This takes away many of the statistical drawbacks of the
regression analysis.
 Since data from the census can be used directly, it saves considerable amount of effort, time and
money spent on home interview survey.
 The computations are relatively simple.
 Since disaggregate data are used, the technique simulates human behavior more realistically
than the zonal aggregation process normally employed in regression analysis.
Disadvantages:
 It is difficult to test the statistical significance of the various explanatory variables. There is no
statistical goodness-of-fit measure for the model, so only aggregate closeness to the calibration
data can be ascertained.
 The technique normally makes use of studies in the past made elsewhere, with broad
corrections.
 Large samples are needed to assign trip rates to any one category. otherwise cell values will vary
in reliability because of the differences in the number of households being available for
calibration at each one.
 The model does not permit extrapolation beyond its calibration strata, although the lowest or
highest class of a variable may be open ended.
 New variables cannot be introduced at a future date.
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
The decision to travel for a given purpose is called trip generation. After having obtained an estimate of
the trips generated from and attracted to the various zones, it is necessary to determine the direction of
travel. Trip distribution models begin with the number of trip ends generated by each zone and answer
the question, “What zone are the trips going to and coming from?” The number of trips generated in
every zone of the area under study has to be apportioned to the various zones to which these trips are
attracted. These generated trips from each zone is then distributed to all other zones based on the
choice of destination. This is called trip distribution which forms the second stage of travel demand
modeling.
DEFINITIONS AND NOTATIONS
Trip matrix
The trip pattern in a study area can be represented by means of a trip matrix or origin-destination (O-D)
matrix. This is a two dimensional array of cells where rows and columns represent each of the zones in
the study area. The horizontal axis of the matrix represents the zones of attractions (destinations D), 1,
2, 3,……j…n and the vertical axis represents the zones of generations (origin, O), 1, 2, 3,…..i…n. The
number of trips indicated at the intersection of any zone of origin and attraction e.g. t i-j represents the
number of trips originating in zone i and terminating in zone j. The total of any individual row, i,
represents the total number of trips generated in zone, i.e. pi. Similarly the total of any individual
column, j, represents the number of terminating in zone j, i.e.
METHODS OF TRIP DISTRIBUTION
In trip distribution, two known sets of trip ends are connected together, without specifying the actual
route and sometimes without reference to travel mode, to form a trip matrix between known origins
and destinations.
There are two types of trip distribution methods,

1. Growth factor methods
2. Synthetic methods
The growth factor methods are based on the assumption that the present travel patterns can be
projected to the design year in the future by using certain expansion factors. It assume that in the future
the trip-making pattern will remain substantially the same as today but that the volume of trips will
increase according to the growth of the generating and attracting zones. These methods are simpler
than synthetic methods and for small towns where considerable changes in land-use and external
factors are not expected, they have often been considered adequate. Growth factor methods have been
used in earlier studies but have yielded place now to the more rational synthetic models. The following
are the important growth factor methods:
1. Uniform factor method

2. Average factor method
3. Fratar method
4. Furness method
In synthetic models of trip distribution, an attempt is made to discern the underlying causes of
movements between places, and relationships are established between trips and measures of
attraction, generation and travel resistance. Synthetic models have an important advantage that they
can be used not only to predict future trip distribution but also to synthesis the base-year flows. The
necessity of having to survey every individual cell in the trip matrix is thus obviated and the cost of data
collection is reduced. The synthetic methods are as give below:
1. Gravity model
2. Tanner model
3. Intervening opportunities model
4. Competing opportunities model
Trip Distribution using Growth Factor
Growth factor methods assume that in the future the trip-making pattern will remain substantially the
same as today but that the volume of trips will increase according to the growth of the generating and
attracting zones. These methods are simpler than synthetic methods and for small towns where
considerable changes in land-use and external factors are not expected, they have often been
considered adequate
.
Uniform Growth Factor Method
This method also known as Constant Factor Method assumes that all zones will increase in a uniform
manner and that the existing traffic pattern will be the same for the future when growth is taken into
account. This was the earliest method to be used, the basic assumption being that the growth which is
expected to take place in the survey area will have an equal effect on all the trips in the area. The
relationship between present and future trips can be expressed by
𝑇𝑖−𝑗= 𝑡𝑖−𝑗 ×𝐸
Where,
 Ti-j is the future number of trips between zone (i) and zone (j)
 ti-j is the present number of between zone (i) and zone (j)
 E is the constant factor derived by dividing the future number of trip ends expected in the
survey area by the existing number of trip ends.
This method suffers from following disadvantages:

 The assumption of a uniform growth factor rate for the entire study is not correct, but each zone
will have its own growth rate and the rate of growth of traffic movement between any two
zones will be different.
 The method under estimates movements where present day development is limited and over
estimates movements where present day development is intensive. It will tend to overestimate
the trips between densely developed zones, which probably have little development potential,
and underestimate the future trips between underdeveloped zones, which are likely to be
extremely developed in the future. It will also fail to make provision for zones which are at
present undeveloped and which may generate a considerable number of trips in the future.
 If the present trip movement between any two zones is zero, the future trip movement also
becomes zero as per this method. This may rarely be in the case of reality.
Average Factor Method
This method attempts to take into account the varying rates of growth of trip-making which can be
expected in the differing zones of a survey area. The average growth factor used is that which refers to
the origin end and the destination end of the trip and is obtained for each zone as in the constant factor
method. Expressed mathematically, this can be stated to be
𝑇𝑖−𝑗=𝑡𝑖−𝑗[𝐸𝑖+𝐸𝑗2]
Where
 Ti-j is the future number of trips between zone (i) and zone (j)
 ti-j is the present number of between zone (i) and zone (j)
 Ei = Pi/pi = generated trips growth factor for zone i
 Ej = Aj/aj = attracted trips growth factor for zone j
 Pi = future generated trips of zone i,
 pi = present generated trips of zone i,
 Aj = future attracted trips of zone j,
 aj = present attracted trips of zone j.
At the completion of the process, the attractions and productions will not agree with the future
estimates ( sum of trips from zone 1 will probably not agree with the projected trip ends in zone I and
the sum of trips to zone j will not agree with the projected trip ends in zone j). Hence the procedure
must be iterated using as new values for Ei and Ej (Ei’ and Ej’) calculated as follows.
𝐸𝑖′= 𝑃𝑖/𝑝𝑖′
𝐸𝑗′= 𝐴𝑗/𝑎𝑗′
where p’i and a’j are the total productions and attractions of zones i and j respectively, obtained from
the first distribution of trips. The process is iterated using successive values of p’i and a’j until the growth
factor approaches unity and the successive values of t’ij and tij are within 1 to 5 percent depending upon
the accuracy required in the trip distribution.
 The average factor method suffers from many of the disadvantages of the constant factor
method.
 The multiplying factor has no real significance and is only a convenient toll to balance the
movements. There is no explanation of the movement between zones and the factors causing
the movement.
 In addition if a large number of iterations are required.
Because of theses drawbacks the method is rarely used nowadays except for updating existing stable
and uniform data for quick results.
Fratar Method
This method was introduced by T. J. Fratar to overcome some of the disadvantages of the constant
factor and average factor methods. According to this method, the total trips for each zone are
distributed to the interzonal movements, as a first approximation, according to relative attractiveness of
each movement. Thus, the future trips estimated for any zone would be distributed to the movements
involving that zone in proportion to the existing trips between it and each other zone and in proportion
to the expected growth of each other zone. This may be expressed as
Where,
Ti-j = Future trips from zone i to zone j
ti-j = Present trips from zone i to zone j
Pi = Future trips produced at zone i
pi = Present trips attracted at zone i
Ai = Future trips attracted to zone j
aj = Present trips attracted to zone j
k = Total numbers of zones
When the future traffic into and out of all zones is similarly distributed, each interzonal trip has been
assigned two tentative values – one the result of the distribution for one of the zones involved and the
other, the result of the distribution for the other zone involved. As a first approximation those pairs of
tentative values are averaged. A new ‘growth factor’ for each zone is then calculated and the
distribution process is repeated.
The procedure is laborious except for simple problems, but can be conventionally tackled by a
computer. It has the same drawbacks as other growth factor models and is unable to forecast trips for
those areas which were predominantly under-developed during the base year. It does not take into
account the effects of changes in accessibility for various portions of the study area
Furness Method
The method was devised by K. P. Furness is also iterative in nature. For this the estimates of future
traffic originating and terminating at each zone are required, thus yielding origin growth factors and
destination growth factors for each zone. The traffic movements are made to agree alternately with the
future traffic originating in each zone and the estimated future terminating in each zone, until both
these conditions are roughly satisfied. The Furness method gives results similar to Fratar, but requires
less computation.
Criticism of Growth Factor Methods
The following are some of the disadvantages of the growth factor methods:
1. Present trip distribution matrix has to be obtained first, for which large scale O–D studies with high
sampling sizes are needed so as to estimate the smaller zone-to-zone movements accurately
2.The error in original data collected on specific zone-to-zone movements gets magnified.
3. None of the methods provide a measure of the resistance to travel and all imply that resistance to
travel will remain constant. They neglect the effect of changes in travel pattern by the construction of
new facilities and new network.
Despite the above shortcomings, the growth factor methods are relatively simpler to use and
understand. They can be used for studies of small areas and for updating stable and uniform data.

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Types of trip [Classification of Trips]

Home Based Trip and Non Home-based trips

Home Based Trip: One of the trip end is home.

Trip generations and trip attractions

Factors influencing Trip Generation and Attraction

3. Family size and composition

4. Land use Characteristics

5. Distance of the zone from the town center

6. Accessibility to public transport system and its efficiency

METHODS OF TRIP GENERATION ESTIMATION

Trip generation models are based upon the following methods:

MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Criteria for Evaluation of Regression Equations

Zonal Regression Method (Aggregated Analysis)

Disadvantages of Zonal Regression Models:

Household least squares regression analysis (Disaggregated Analysis):

Disadvantages of multiple-linear regression analysis technique

CATEGORY ANALYSIS OR CROSS–CLASSIFICATION

Critical appraisal of the category analysis technique

DEFINITIONS AND NOTATIONS

METHODS OF TRIP DISTRIBUTION

There are two types of trip distribution methods,

1. Uniform factor method

Trip Distribution using Growth Factor

This method suffers from following disadvantages:

Average Factor Method

Criticism of Growth Factor Methods

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