Lecture 3

Al-Qadisiyah University Dr.
Hamsa Abbas
College of Engineering Fourth Stage
Road and Transport Department Transport Planning -Lecture3
1. Forecasting Travel Demand

Travel demand can be expressed as the number of persons or vehicles per unit time
that can be expected to travel on a given segment of transportation system under a
set of given land-use, socioeconomic, and environmental conditions.
1.2 Factors Influencing Travel Demand

The three factors that influence the demand for urban travel are:
(1) The location and intensity of land use (the amount of traffic generated by a
parcel of land depends on how the land is used. For example, shopping centers,
residential complexes, and office buildings produce different traffic generation
patterns);
(2) The socioeconomic characteristics of people living in the area (lifestyles and
values affect how people decide to use their resources for transportation. For
example, a residential area consisting primarily of high-income workers will
generate more trips by automobile per person than a residential area populated
primarily by retirees);
(3) the extent, cost, and quality of available transportation services (travelers are
sensitive to the level of service provided by alternative transportation modes.
When deciding whether to travel at all or which mode to use, they consider
attributes such as travel time, cost, convenience, comfort, and safety).
These factors are incorporated in most travel forecasting procedures.
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Al-Qadisiyah University Dr. Hamsa Abbas
1.3 Sequential Steps for Travel Forecasting

1.  Trip Generation – Estimate # of trips entering/leaving a zone/TAZ.
2.  Trip Distribution – Estimate how many trips from each zone/TAZ end in all
zones/TAZs.
3.  Modal Split – Estimate which travel method is used (e.g., vehicle, transit, walk).
4.  Traffic Assignment – Distribute vehicles to different paths during travel.
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2. Trip Generation
Trip generation is the process of determining the number of trips that will begin or
end in each traffic analysis zone within a study area. Each trip has two ends, and
these are described in terms of trip purpose. For example, a home-to-work trip
would be considered to have a trip end produced in the home zone and attracted to
the work zone.
Trip generation is a procedure which uses socioeconomic data (e.g., household

size, income, etc.) to estimate the number of person trips for a modeled time period
(e.g., daily, peak hour) at a Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level. A person trip
involves a single person leaving from an origin and arriving at a single destination,
and each trip has a classification/purpose.
Examples:
Classification: home-based (HB) or non-home-based (NHB).
Purpose: work (HBW), shopping (HBS), school (HBSc), other (HBO).
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2.1 Productions and Attractions

In trip-based transportation planning, for a home-based trip, a production is related
to the home end/location, while an attraction is related to non-home end/location.
For a non-homebased trip, a production is related to the origin location, and an
attraction is related to the destination location. Entering and Leaving trips should
balance - if a person leaves a zone, they should also return; if a person enters a
zone, they should also leave.
For example, if a person travels from home to work and then from work to home
on a certain day, then there are 2 home-based work trip productions are generated
at the home TAZ, and two attractions related at his or her work location.
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To better understand these concepts, we might use a trip pattern diagram (used in
the following example) to visually describe the interactions between
productions/attractions and origins/destinations for different trip types/purposes.
Summary:
• Trip production (Home end)– Household size, household structure, income,

car ownership, residential density, accessibility.
• Trip attraction (Non-home end)– Land-use and employment by category
(e.g., industrial, commercial, services), accessibility.
Example 1: Trip Pattern Diagram

Mike drives his car to his office in the morning and drives to a shopping mall in the
downtown area to have lunch. After returning home at 6 PM, Mike walks to a
nearby shopping plaza to buy a gift for his friend Jenny, and then he takes a bus
from the shopping plaza to Jenny’s house at 8 PM. At 9PM, Jenny gives Mike a
ride back to his home. Please draw Mike’s trip pattern diagram, and count the
number of motorized productions (P) and attractions (A) for each zone by trip
purpose.
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Zone 1: Mike’s home

Zone 2: Mike’s work place
Zone 3: Shopping mall in the downtown area
Zone 4: Shopping plaza close to Mike’s home
Zone 5: Jenny’s house
Note: We have 7 trips - 7 motorized productions and 7 attractions; the number of

productions and attractions is the same for each category of trip purposes.
Remark: In this example we only consider motorized trips, so the trip from Mike’s
home to Shopping plaza is not counted. If the following mode split stage also consider
both walking and motorized trips, then it is necessary to count walking trips when
collect trip pattern data.
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2.3 Trip Generation Analysis
(1) To develop a relationship between trip end production or attraction and land
use and;
(2) To use the relationship to estimate the number of trips generated at some future
date under a new set of land use conditions.
In the four-step process, there are three typical methods used to predict trips based on
attributes:
1. Cross-Classification:
Cross-Classification methods separate the population in an urban area into
relatively homogenous groups based on certain socio-economic characteristics.
Then, average trip production rates per household or individual are empirically
estimated for each class. This creates a lookup table that may be used to forecast
trip productions.
2. Rates Based on Activity Units
The preceding section illustrated how trip generation is determined for residential
zones where the basic unit is the household. Trips generated at the household end
are referred to as productions, and they are attracted to zones for purposes such as
work, shopping, visiting friends, and medical trips.
3. Regression Models:
Two types of regression are commonly used. The first uses data aggregated at the
zonal level, with average number of trips per household in the zone as the
dependent variable and average zonal characteristics as the explanatory variables.
The second uses disaggregated data at the household or individual level, with the
number of trips made by a household or individual as the dependent variable and
the household and personal characteristics as the explanatory variables.
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2.3.1 Cross-Classification
The general steps to the applying the cross-classification method is as follows:

1. Determine category/grouping (i.e., Household Distribution by Category)
2. Identify trip rate for each category
3. Identify trip purpose breakdown by category
4. Find total trips per day: Sum them up!
5. Divide trips by purpose
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2.3.2 Rates Based on Activity Units

By using the previous tables, we can calculate the total trips/day as follows:
-Balancing Trip Productions and Attractions

A likely result of the trip generation process is that the number of trip productions
may not be equal to the number of trip attractions. The trip generation process has
produced 600 home-based work productions for zones 1 through 3. However, the
same process has produced 800 home-based work attractions. To rectify this
imbalance, each attraction value for zones 1 through 3 is reduced by a factor equal
to 600/800, or 0.75. The result is shown in Table 12.8a in the column “Balanced
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HBW Trips” Now both productions and attractions are equal. A similar procedure
is used for HBO trips.
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2.3.3 Regression Analysis …….(To be continued)
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Al-Qadisiyah University Dr.

1. Forecasting Travel Demand

1.2 Factors Influencing Travel Demand

These factors are incorporated in most travel forecasting procedures.

1.3 Sequential Steps for Travel Forecasting

Trip generation is a procedure which uses socioeconomic data (e.g., household

2.1 Productions and Attractions

• Trip production (Home end)– Household size, household structure, income,

Example 1: Trip Pattern Diagram

Zone 1: Mike’s home

Note: We have 7 trips - 7 motorized productions and 7 attractions; the number of

2.3 Trip Generation Analysis

The general steps to the applying the cross-classification method is as follows:

2.3.2 Rates Based on Activity Units

-Balancing Trip Productions and Attractions

2.3.3 Regression Analysis …….(To be continued)

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