I

Week 2: Transportation Planning

Course:
CE-309 Transportation Engineering-I

Course Instructor:
Engr. Muhammad Umair Khan
M.Sc Urban Infrastructure Engineering (UET Peshawar)
Lecturer/ Lab Coordinator
Department of Civil Engineering

Abasyn University, Peshawar

1
Table of Contents

1. Introduction
2. Trip Generation
3. Trip Distribution
4. Mode Split
5. Traffic Assignment

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 Transportation
01 Systems Planning

3
 Why do We Need a Transportation Systems Planning and Modeling?

• Because transportation engineers plan, design and construct facilities

• Because predicting how people travel is more difficult than predicting a “nuclear
reaction at the molecular level” (true statement from Los Alamos Physicists)

• Keeping up with demand is difficult in constrained budget environments

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 A Transportation Planning Example
• Normally transportation planning is a long-term
planning activity
• Typically 20-25 years into the future
• Planning and
designing
transportatio
n
infrastructure
takes time
•Approving a plan
takes time
• Building takes
time
Source: https://www.mwcog.org/assets/1/28/Visualize_2045_Plan_2018_10_23_No_Crops_Single.pdf
Why is Transportation Planning is a Complex Process?
Many stakeholders
•Local and state jurisdictions
•Example of Transportation Planning
Unit
•PDA, Cantonment Boards etc.
•TransPeshawar for BRT
•Many local governments,
and state legislatures
Transportation Planning requires a Range of Forecasts

Example Forecast:

National Capital
region population is
expected to grow by
23% by the year 2045

Source:Visualize 2045 -
A Long-Range Transportation Plan for
the National Capital Region
Transportation Planning requires a Range of Forecasts

Example Forecast:

National Capital
region employment is
expected to grow by
29% by the year 2045

Source:Visualize 2045 -
A Long-Range Transportation Plan for
the National Capital Region
 Know the Transportation Habits of your Community
• Information about travel behavior is normally
assessed using travel surveys
• Nationwide,surveys like:
• National HouseholdTransportation Survey (NHTS)
•American Community Survey (ACS)

National Capital Region

 Links to Important Travel Behavior Surveys
• National Household
Transportation Survey
(NHTS)
• Contains information on
travel behavior nationwide
•https://nhts.ornl.gov

• AmericanCommunity
Survey (ACS)
• Contains detailed
population and housing
information
•https://www.census.gov/
programs-surveys/acs/
 The Four-Step
02 Model

11
The Basic Idea and Few Steps

Predicts trips from

Trip Generation zone to zone

Distributes trips
Trip Distribution between zones

Splits trips among

Mode Split/Choice various modes of
travel

Assigns trips among

Traffic Assignment various transport
networks

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Transportation Planning Idea
Mardan
Population = 60,000
Household Income = $55,000
Car Ownership = 2.1 (per house)
Peshawar
Population = 230,000
Household Income = $45,000
Car Ownership = 1.3 (per house)

Road Network

Charsadda
Population = 120,000
Household Income = $70,000 Centroids
Car Ownership = 2.3 (per house)

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How Many Trips?

Mardan
Interzone trips = 230,000 person-trips
Intrazone trips = 70,000 person-trips

Peshawar
Interzone trips = 400,000 person-trips
Intrazone trips = 130,000 person-trips

Road Network

Charsadda
Interzone trips = 360,000 person-trips
Intrazone trips = 100,000 person-trips

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 Basic Definitions
• Intrazone trips – trips that stay within the zone where the person making the trips starts its
journey
– A trip to a shopping center
– A trip to drop children to school

• Interzone trips – trips that extend beyond the zone where the person starts its journey
– Commuting trip to work
– Commuting trip to airport, train station to make a long- distance trip

• The definition of a zone in our context is a subarea of interest in our study with similar
socio-economic characteristics or perhaps physical boundaries

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 What Drives the Number of Trips?

• Number of persons per household

• Number of cars per household
• Income levels
• Road infrastructure density (lane-km or road per square kilometer)
• Many others

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03 Step-1 Trip
Generation

17
Trip Generation
• Use of cross classification tables
• Provides a snapshot of potential trips per household
• Obtained through surveys
• Socio-economic parameters dictate trips
Vehicles per household

Persons per household 0 1 2 or more

1 1.02 1.9 2.1
2 2.12 3.25 3.7
3 2.15 3.75 3.9
4 or more 3.96 5.02 6.54

Trip Rate Table for Urban Areas

(units are trips per household per day)

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Output of Trip Generation
• Cross classification trip rate tables for trip productions

Vehicles per household

Persons per household 0 1 2 or more

1 1.02 1.9 2.1
2 2.12 3.25 3.7
3 2.15 3.75 3.9
4 or more 3.96 5.02 6.54

• Regression analysis for trip attractions

Trip attractions = A + B * (employment)
where: A and B are regressions constants to be obtained using statistical
regression techniques such as the least-squares method

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04 Step-2 Trip
Distribution

20
Trip Distribution
• Answers the question:
Where do the trips generated go? (the distances are assumptions only)

Mardan
Distance = 20 km

Distance = 10 km

Peshawar
Charsadda

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Trip Distribution Methods
• Methods
Gravity Model (just like the attraction between planets!)
Growth factor models (Fratar Models)

Distance = 20 km
Mardan
Productions = 230,000
Attractions = 200,000

Distance = 10 km

Charsadda Peshawar
Productions = 360,000 Productions = 400,000
Attractions = 200,000 Attractions = 590,000

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Gravity Model Formulation
where
Pi = Productions at zone I
Aj = Attractions at zone j

Fij = Impedance of travel between I

and j
Mardan
Productions = 230,000
Attractions = 200,000
Distance = 20 km
Distance = 10 km

Charsadda Peshawar
Productions = 360,000 Productions = 400,000
Attractions = 200,000 Attractions = 590,000

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What is Travel Impedance?
• A common term to state that there is resistance to travel between two
zones
• The resistance is proportional to the travel time between the zones
(time ij)

Fij = Cij exp(-alpha) or

Cij = travel time
Mardan

Distance = 20 km
Travel time = 1 hour
Distance = 10 km
Travel time = 30 minutes

Peshawar

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Output of Trip Distribution
• A trip interchange matrix (Tij)
• How many trips go from zone i to zone j

Destination Zone
Origin Zone Mardan Charsadda Peshawar
Mardan T Mardan-Mardan T Mardan-Charsadda T Mardan-
Peshawar
Charsadda T Charsadda-Mardan T Charsadda-Charsadda T Charsadda-
Peshawar
Peshawar T Peshawar-Mardan T Peshawar-Charsadda T Peshawar-
Peshawar

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05 Step-3 Mode
Split/Choice

26
 Trip Mode Split
• Estimates the number of trips made taking a specific mode of transportation

• For the sample area, travelers will have choices of mode:

I. Bus
II. Auto
III. Rapid transit
IV. Walk
V. Bicycle

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Mode Split or Mode Choice
• Out-of-pocket costs (Cost ij via mode k) is important
• Travel time (time ij via mode k) is important

How many trips by auto?

How many by transit?
Mardan

Travel time (transit) = 1 hour

Travel cost (transit) = $1.50

Travel time (auto) = 45 minutes

Travel cost (auto) = $5.00 (includes parking)

Peshawar

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Mode Split Formulation

Um = Utility of travel using mode m

Zmj = travel characteristics (time and cost)
Bm = Mode specific constant
aj = Model parameter (from calibration)
e = stochastic term with zero mean

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Calculating Probabilities of Travel by a given Mode (Logit Model)
• W. McFadden (Nobel Price winner 30 years ago) developed a
fundamental model called Logit Model to predict people’s choice in
economic terms
• Basis for today’s logit models used in transportation

eUm
Pm = Pm = probability that mode

e Um m is selected
M = index over all modes
included in the choice set
m

2
4

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Example of Mode Split Equation
• A mode split has been calibrated using the maximum likelihood technique (an advanced
statistical method)
• The following equation has been obtained as follows:

Um = m − 0.25C −0.02T
where: C is the out-of-pocket cost ($), T is the travel time (minutes)
and the values of the mode specific constants (betas) are:

Transit = 0.30
Auto = 2.2

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Back to the Problem

How many trips by auto?

How many by transit?

Mardan
Travel time (transit) = 1 hour
Travel cost (transit) = $1.50

Travel time (auto) = 45 minutes

Travel cost (auto) = $5.0 (includes parking)

Peshawar

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Calculation of Utilities (Um)

u = m − 0.25C − 0.02T
Uauto = 2.2 - 0.25 (5) - 0.02 (45) = 0.05
Utransit = 0.3 - 0.25 (1.5) - 0.02 (60) = -1.275

Mardan
Travel time (transit) = 60 minutes
Travel cost (transit) = $1.50

Travel time (auto) = 45 minutes

Travel cost (auto) = $5.00 (includes parking)

Peshawar

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Estimate Probabilities of Travel by Mode m

Uauto = 2.2 - 0.25 (5) - 0.02 (45) = 0.05

Utransit = 0.3 - 0.25 (1.5) - 0.02 (60) = -1.275

U auto 0.05
e e
Pauto = = = 0.79
e Um e 0.05 + e −1.275

e U transit
e−1.275
Ptransit = = = 0.21
e Um e 0.05
+e −1.275

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 Interpretation of Results
• The probability that a traveler from Reston to DC uses auto is 79%
• The probability that a traveler from Reston to DC uses transit is 21%

• Why is this important?

Because as a transportation engineer you have to plan how many lanes of
highway should you provide between Mardan and Peshawar

You also need to figure out how many transit vehicles will be needed and how
often they should be scheduled

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05 Step-4 Traffic
Assignment

36
Traffic Assignment (Final Step in Transportation Systems Planning)

Mardan What routes are selected

by travelers?
Route 1
Peshawar
Route 3 Route 2
Link ij

Road Network

Charsadda

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 How do Travellers Select Routes?
• Consideration of travel time and congestion in transportation links

• Travelers tend to take routes that minimize travel time

• After a long period of time traveling a network, a traveler selects routes that
reach equilibrium for that traveler
• – For example, if two routes are feasible to take me from an origin (say
Mardan) to a destination (say Peshawar), I will select these routes in a way
that gains in travel time are not possible once we consider other network
users

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Travel Time vs Demand

Route 1

Route 2
Travel Time
Route 1 Route 2 Total

t
Demand

V1 V2 VT
Traffic Volume

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