TRAVEL

DEMAND
FORECASTING
01 Introduction
 Definition
• It is to predict future transport
demand when establishing transport
plans within a given budget.

• The forecast is based on current

travel patterns of transport systems
and under the assumption that
general conditions will not greatly
change. Therefore, drastic or detailed
changes can result in prediction
errors.
 Usage

1 2
It is used as important basic data to It is also used to evaluate land
evaluate the efficiency of transport use plans by estimating travel
facility supply and transport policy, volume according to the change
such as road construction, public of land use patterns within a
transport introduction, and given transport system.
transport demand management
implementation.
02 Process
 Process
Travel Demand Forecasting is a multi-stage process, and there are several
different techniques that can be used at each stage. Generally, Travel
Demand Forecasting involves five interrelated tasks.

01
Break the area that requires prediction of future
travel demand into study zones that can be
accurately described by a few variables.
 Study Boundary
Before forecasting the travel for an urban area or
region, the planner must clearly define the exact area
to be considered. These areas may be defined by
the urban growth boundary (UGB), country lines or
town centers. The planning area generally includes all
the developed land, plus undeveloped land that the
area will encompass in the next 20 to 30 years.

The cordon line denotes the boundary of the

planning area. In addition to considering future growth,
the establishment of the cordon line might take into
account political jurisdictions, census area boundaries,
and natural boundaries. The cordon line should
intersect a minimum number of roads.
 Zones
The study area must then be divided into
analysis units, or zones. This will enable the
planner to link information about activities,
travel, and transportation to the physical
locations in the study area.

An important consideration in establishing

zones is their compatibility with the
transportation network. As a general rule, the
network should form the boundaries of the
zones.
 Links and Nodes
A system of links and nodes, or a
network, indicates roadways and other
transportation routes. Links represent sections of
roadway (or railway etc.) that are homogeneous,
while nodes are simply points at which links
meet. Usually, transit networks are developed
independently of truck and automobile networks.
In the network description,
zone centroids (centers of activity) are identified;
they are connected to nodes by imaginary links
called centroid connectors. Centroids are used as
the points as which trips are "loaded" onto the
network. A diagram of a transportation network
is shown below.
The figures on this page came from: Garber, N.J. and Hoel, L.A., Traffic and Highway Engineering,
Revised 2nd Edition, PWS, Pacific Grove, CA. 1999. Pg. 499 and 501
 Process

02
Calculate the number of trips starting in
each zone for a particular trip purpose.
(Trip Generation Analysis)
 Trip Generation Analysis
Once the study area has been broken into zones, the next task involves quantifying the number
of trips that each zone will produce or attract. The number of trips to and from an area or zone
is related to the land use activities of the zone and the socioeconomic characteristics of the
trip-makers.

There are at least three characteristics of land use and trip-makers that are important:

Intensity Character Location

 Trip Generation Analysis
Three Major Techniques

1. Cross-Classification

Cross-Classification procedures measure the changes in one variable (trips)

when other variables (land use etc.) are accounted for. Cross-Classification is
essentially non-parametric, since no account is taken of the distribution of the
individual values. One problem with the Cross-Classification technique is that the
"independent" variables may not be truly independent, and the resultant relationships
and predictions may well be invalid.
Example:
 Trip Generation Analysis
Three Major Techniques

2. Multiple Regression Analysis

Multiple Regression Analysis is based on trip generation as a function of one

or more independent variables. The approach is mathematical and all of the variables
are considered random, and with normal distributions.
For example, consider the following equation:

Ti = 0.34 (P) + 0.21 (DU) + 0.12 (A)

Aj = 57.2 + 0.87 (E)

Where:

Ti = Total number of trips produced in zone I

Aj = Total number of trips attracted in zone j
P = Total Population for zone I
DU = Total number of dwelling units for zone I
A = Total number of automobiles in zone I
E = Total employment in zone j
 Trip Generation Analysis
Three Major Techniques

3. Experience Based Analysis

Experience Based Analysis, one of the most commonly used techniques, is

founded primarily on experience. For example, a shopping center might produce a
certain number of trips for each employee. Simply asking for the employment roster
would allow a transportation engineer to estimate the total number of trips that are
generated by the shopping center employees. To establish local credibility, a survey of
similar land uses in the area may also need to be conducted.
 Process

Produce a table of the number of trips

03
starting in each zone and ending up in each
other zone. (Trip Distribution Analysis)
 Trip Distribution Analysis
Once the trip productions and attractions for each zone are computed, the trips can be
distributed among the zones using Trip Distribution Models.

The two models are:

Logit Model Gravity Model

 Trip Distribution Analysis

Logit
The probability of selecting a particular
destination zone is based on the number of trip
attractions estimated for that destination zone,
relative to the total attractions in all possible
destination zones. The probability is applied to
trip productions estimated for the origin zone,
Model making it conceptually similar to the gravity
model.
 Trip Distribution Analysis

Logit
Where,
• Pij = probability of trips from zone i choosing destination j
• Vij = Aj-a tij+b t2ij where a and b are parameters to be
estimated
• Aj = trip attractions estimated for zone j
• Tij = highway travel time to zone j from zone i
• Z = total number of zones

Multiplying the probability of traveling from zone i to

zone j by the number of trips produced by zone i will yield the
number of trips produced by zone i that will travel to zone j.
 Trip Distribution Analysis

Gravity
The gravity model is much like Newton's
theory of gravity. The gravity model
assumes that the trips produced at an
origin and attracted to a destination are
directly proportional to the total trip
productions at the origin and the total
attractions at the destination. Model
 Trip Distribution Analysis
Where:

Tij = trips produced at I and attracted at j Gravity

Pi = total trip production at I
Aj = total trip attraction at j
F ij = a calibration term for interchange ij, (friction
factor) or travel time factor ( F ij =C/tijn )
C = calibration factor for the friction factor
Kij = a socioeconomic adjustment factor for
interchange ij
i = origin zone
n = number of zones
 Process

Complete the allocation of the various trips

among the available transportation systems
(bus, train, pedestrian, and private 04
vehicles). (Modal Choice Analysis)
 Modal Choice Analysis

After completing the Trip Distribution Analysis, we need to determine what

transportation system each of those travelers will use. Mode choice models
estimate how many people will use public transit and how many will use private
automobiles.

The most common form of the mode choice model is the logit model. The logit
mode choice relationship states that the probability of choosing a particular mode
for a given trip is based on the relative values of a number of factors such as cost,
level of service, and travel time.
Where:

Pit = probability of individual t

choosing mode i
Uit = utility of mode i to
individual t
Ujt = utility of mode j to
individual t
 Process

Identify the specific routes on each

05 transportation system that will be selected

by the travelers. (Trip Assignment Analysis)
 Trip Assignment Analysis

Once you have determined the number of trips that will enter and leave each zone,
as well as the transportation modes that the travelers will use, you can identify the
exact roadways or routes that will be selected for each trip. Trip assignment
involves assigning traffic to a transportation network such as roads and streets or a
transit network.

Traffic is assigned to available transit or roadway routes using a mathematical

algorithm that determines the amount of traffic as a function of time, volume,
capacity, or impedance factor.
 RESULT
Once you have completed the trip assignment
analysis, you have a picture of the volume of
traffic that each element of your
transportation system can expect to service
in the future. This gives you insight into the
ramifications of changing the transportation
system. For example, widening a highway
will increase capacity and shift more traffic
onto that highway in the future. Using travel
demand
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 Thank you for listening!
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