Morning View

Yesterday the last 30 minutes gave move on both sides but closed above the
VWAP levels displaying that Bulls were holding on to their levels.

Important level to note will be the resistance level drawn in terms of the
trendline on daily time-frame.
Nifty was weaker yesterday when compared to Bank nifty. That’s why it will be
so interesting to see as Nifty might be stronger today looking at how Nasdaq
closed yesterday. IT may help Nifty be stronger and move higher in the day.

The Fed chairman’s minutes were released yesterday and were taken positively

by the markets. It was to do with interest rates that might not be hiked at 0.75
BHP rather could be 0.50 BHP.

Shorts are building up in the last ten days and today could be the day they
cover their positions considering its monthly expiry and rollover.
Bank nifty has got support from Dollar index, Crude and VIX is cooling off. We
may see a new ATH and possibly head towards 43150 in Bank nifty Futures.

DOW Futures indicating positive start. Unless there are any negatives local
cues, we will remain positive for the day.

Last closing fall was because of long unwinding and not because of short build
up in bank nifty. Longs were unwinding as they were not believing this move
and not ready to take the market higher by carrying positions.
Nifty was a little different and was weaker. Bank nifty still looking to go higher
and higher with nothing negative in data to suggest that.

Data

EOD is a lot stronger but for the long unwinding that happened towards the
end of the day.

When market is in momentum, they will try close at day’s highs on expiry. Just
like we discussed in mentoring session yesterday that when the month has
been generally bullish, they will try to close the expiry at the high of the day.

42500 you can clearly see some of the weak hands were covering positions.
The big players were holding on to their PES shorts.
Looking at data short covering happened but price didn’t move much because
strong shorts need to give up.

42500 has maximum open intertest and this level seems to be protected for
now.

Premiums on call side is higher due to adjusted closing. The gap up will take
care of it as they will be on par then.
Some of longs may use the gap up to exit and we might see a small dip which
should be a buying opportunity.

We need to see if the high of yesterday is getting cleared again with volume.
We can see short covering and a trending day if we can see that happen in the
opening hour.

With all these things in hindsight don’t use OTM in situation like this. OTMs will
lose premiums faster than any other strike in low IV environment.

Trending OI was again bullish but for long un winding words the end of the day
yesterday.

Nifty was different shorts were building up all day and they started covering
towards the end and expecting moves on upside today.
Morning will be interesting to see with divergent data in Nifty and Bank nifty
based on yesterday data.

Expiry 42600 had maximum OI yesterday but towards end both shorts and
longs covered up.

It will be tough for bears to bring the market lower

If you look at 18200 long un winding happening and interesting that un

winding is happening on other side as well
18300 has huge shorts and these people need to cover for us to see huge
move I nifty.

If market is not giving an exit, then it is important to exit and look for next move.

320-strategy today has given a move but not much so it will be wise to exit
positions.

FII data

FII have not created huge positions in Cash.

 Derivatives

In derivative they have been mildly bullish in Index and Futures and bearish in
stock options.

Participant wise OI

FII and Pros have been bullish and Clients bearish. Clients have been bullish on
closing yesterday and will be rewarded at open.
Pros have been mildly bearish. Clients have been buying calls and selling puts.

Moring gap up will give a clean exit for the clients.

Last 30 minutes was brutal yesterday that people who carried calls before 3 PM
would have been beaten badly. People who have carried Puts based on the
closing will be at a loss at open itself.

Only catch point for puts is it has to fall with volume and break VWAP. Nifty fell
below CWAP but bank nifty was not ready to fall below VWAP.

Need to wait it out for the set up to give you a trade for one lot players.

For people carrying puts, quickly exit if mild gap up as the market may inch
higher.
No major cues today as US market is closed so we might see some positive
momentum as Asian market are positive as well.

Asian markets

Crude has been falling as well which is giving t cushion for Bank nifty.

One lot player needs to wait it out for opportunity that’s when your discipline
has to come in play and you show character here.

Until you see big opportunities don’t get into trades as you will be losing more
instead.

No 2 candles theory in the last few days and markets have been trading.
Getting a 50k achievement tis a great thing I the last few days. When biggies
are not putting their money why should you

IV levels are pathetically low coming into expiry and we saw a spike only
because of the last move.

Strikes to trade

42500 CE

42600 CE

We will be looking at PUTS only when 42700 is broken till then will play one
round of up-tick.

Pre-open data

Banks are mildly positive.

Banks PSU Metal Finance PSE Infra AUTO Consumers

FMGC all in mild positive.

Reliance and IT stocks are mildly positive as well.

 Morning trade

No signal generated for the morning trades.

It will be interesting to see which side the OH is being created.

It will be interesting to see of Nifty if it gets closer to ATH.

9:15 AM

Market is trying to fall in the opening and we will be trying to buy some calls
here for the morning trade considering the data of yesterday.

42650 will be level to watch out for the longs as a final level for now to go long.
As the opening tick low is not breached, we will hold the longs for the opening
trade and trail it as we move higher and above the BEP.

If it is going to be a dull day the market will play in this range only.

Premiums
Open and High is happening in Futures and will be interesting to see if they
take it out in the opening hour itself.

Another 50-60 points and we can see that happening.

Open & High

Nothing interesting in open and high in Bank nifty but there is quite a few in
Nifty.
Looks like market does not want to do anything for more for now.

No volatility in the mooring considering the IV levels is so low for a Thursday

morning. Interesting

Absolutely flat market as of now.

This is going to be one of those days where your patience is going to be tested
when there are no moves.

Put prices have already fallen 40-50% in OTMs and starting to eat premiums
towards ATM as well.

No initial moves as well which is unusual for an expiry. Only possibility now is
for the open and high futures to be taken out. The Bank nifty Spot is trading at
42800 and ATM is trading at 70 rupees. This is a rare sight for the ATM to trade
this low on an expiry morning.

Absolutely no premiums at all with IV levels so low.

Will there be a move is the question now?

18300 will be a good bet for both sides and a 100-point move can give you
good.

We will trail once it crosses 320-point mark … Trailing stop loss hit

Very dull morning but the market is moving higher. They have started to write
on both sides
Watch out for 42800 if they are able to hold this level and move higher and
42900 looks interesting proposition

The open and high on Futures is just about to be hit.

Jus one more move and they can take it out as it is just 2 points from the OH on
Futures being taken out.

42600 taken as 42600 seem to be protected for now

Another 7 or 8 points and they will take the OH on Futures. Will they keep
pushing higher now is the question

They are looking to do it and trailing stop loss is hit in the trade.
Gap of 2 points

Will be interesting to see if they are filling the gap and then taking it higher.

They don’t seem to be doing it as of now. Once the gap is filled you will be
rather more comfortable.

Don’t trade to take a put for the one-point gap as now the sellers will feel the
heat. They can simply close the gap and move it quickly on the other side
which we have seen several times happen before.

Just waiting for Bank nifty to do its formalities and nifty will follow suit 183500.

10:00 AM

EOD there was nothing much apart for the long unwinding that we saw towards
the end of the day.

That’s why I went with call trade in the morning and it paid off.
Only one opportunity now to fall till the Super trend level and fill the gap.

EOD last 30 min can be affected by adjusted closing.

42700

We are seeing short covering happening and if comes to 200 odd levels will be
a good buy. One move to close the gap and move it higher is what we are
looking for. With premiums so low it looks like a day for the buyers.

Only strike to write is 18300 and this is crazy stuff on an expiry. Nifty is looking
absolutely bullish.

Understanding GAP theory

If the market is moving higher and higher the people who is not able to fill re
orders in prop desk this is for the guy who has missed the orders looking for
help to bring mkt lower so he can fill his orders and make money as well.

Peers will pitch in and bring the market lower fill the orders and move it higher.
All that is required is one move to fill the gap but with no volumes at all and
bulls coming in it is going to be difficult.

There is an easy probability to bring it lower ass the up move has happened
with low volume.

It will be interesting to see.

All these are system orders and it will be on several strikes and indices and will
be difficult to fill in such an environment

There is a small increase in OI.

All major banks are in green so no sense of worry for bank nifty as of now

People who have taken call position in morning and holding will be wondering
why mkt is not moving higher.

They will be wondering why this down move if they have not noticed gap in
bank nifty.

Nifty has no gap so it is not falling. Bank nifty has 2 more levels to clear to fill
the gap but it is taking support from WMA
Nifty is making all the noise today but there is no volume to support the moves.

Market is moving on thin volume and can fall anytime. Nifty is a clear winner
today and will be interesting to see if bank nifty will play spoilt sport

There are so many positives for bank nifty but the gap is what is playing spoilt
sport for bank nifty

Premiums are low and volumes are low and you can expect some wild moves if
one side plans to take it on their side

Nifty simply does not want to come to ST level but bank nifty has a gap to fill.

It is divergent data again here in nifty and bank nifty.

There is a one-point gap which is causing the pain in bank nifty

Call OI is slowly increasing as the market is in the range

Are they creating positions in bank nifty?

They can come and close the gap in the afternoon as well

Only time the gap will be ignored is if the market is moving higher with volume.
It is looking like trend day for nifty at least. Bank nifty is also making a new high
after an hour of the last high. It is doing it with low volume so there is not going
to be a quick move for now.
 11:20 AM

Since its coming close to the support levels, we are looking for nifty as there is
no premium at all. We need to see if they have the potential to go up further.

Very rarely you will see a day where premiums are running at discount.
Writers have no other option but to pull the index down.

Today is looking good for a long straddle.

Strike price 18350 combined premium of 50 rupees looks perfect.

42900 and 43000 are the strikes and we might get the same one at 20-Rupee
range later in the afternoon.

42700 and 42800 there are no premiums at all so every one-point move will
give you 1 Rupee.

Due to low premiums these straddles and strangles will give a good move.
Short straddle is not an ideal one to trade now as there are no premiums to
write.

43000 some writing happing in both call and put.

42900 put side OI looks to be higher in this strike.

42800 42700 are the strikes we are looking at.

As we are heading towards super trend level, we can add some positions.

Trending OI we can look for a 70% direction change nothing much. When
markets are hitting new day highs you can see immediately some shorts
coming into the system.

As the day is passing the volume traded is lower and lower. This is not an ideal
market to trade in as a buyer. This is not an ideal for fresh sellers as there are no
premiums to write.

Futures are trading in a discount as nobody is ready to believe this up move

and wanting to take I higher. When you have no premiums to write and VIX at
lows you can see premiums only crashing more.
Time to see another day’s high which will be a lot more soothing. More of
patience being tested now. Who has the patience bulls or bears?

If Bulls feel we have made what we made and book profits, that’s what is going
to bring the market down

Nifty is bullish to the core but needs to catch up on the ATH. Bank nifty has
already made it.

Can they keep pushing it and take it above 43000?

The problem with today’s market are the volumes. Once nifty goes up, bank
nifty cools off. Once bank nifty goes up nifty cools off.

Another attempt and another failure.

Will need to see shorts covering at 43000 and then only we can see the move
happen.

Thin volumes at 42800 and shorts at 42800 need to give up rather you can see
some longs unwinding which is not helping the move.

First time the bears are trying to make an attempt.

Let’s see if they can come to 200-mark.

42830 will be levels to watch out for.

If there is a buyer at the average levels if what we need to watch out for.
 12:15 PM

Nifty made a new high around 12:12 and bank nifty has made a new high now.

They are making a new high in the next series as well.

Time to give up the gap now as data also not giving any room for down move.

Nifty is getting aggressive now. Now is time for some action in bank nifty. The
bullishness has been coming in now.

When they have nothing to write you can see some serous serious short
covering but nobody is still believing it now.

Now will need to see 43000 is being taken out with volume or not? Can they do
it with volume is the question.
Then the shorts will run for cover. 18400 will be on the radar of the bulls now.
The game is on without the volume.

Someone is booking their profits at 43000 now. If they are going for the
downside a quick 100 points will be interesting to see.

A quick trade for the support levels.

Can they get there and quick 70 points given up

Trending oi indicating profit booking happening in. They are getting to the
VWAP levels now.

If they are not able to defend the VWAP level then they can go all the way to fill
the gap, fill it and then take it higher.

Just need to come to VWAP after all this move and OI is picking up on call side
now.

Game is interesting now.

12:30 PM

Too early for hero or zero

Nifty is looking a better bet than bank nifty

Bank nifty is looking to be in another shell now after touching 43000

Still one up move towards 43100 odd levels for the final nail in the coffin is
possible. It can take resistance there if it gets there

Now they are facing a resistance at the WMA level where they were taking
support before/

Never short a dull market. All they need to do is get the market to ST level and
higher. They have all the ammunition in their arsenal
Just one more push is what is needed. They just need to clear the WMA now
with volume.

You are only seeing 30–40-point move is looking to be volatile because there
are no premiums. Every move is as good as the points move in terms of rupees
as there are no premiums.

Earlier you would have seen a 50% move for a 100-point move and now a 40-
point move is giving a 40 rupee change so you feel is volatility.

01:00 PM

If they are able to stay able WMA and reclaim the ST level the bulls can come
back again to take the markets higher.

HDFC needs to pump it up and Kotak is taking a break today

Even the fall is happening with low volume. Today the whole day it has been
after the gap in bank nifty. They are just trying to play around and one more
attempt to go down.

Slowly and steadily the shorts are coming into the system.

Just waiting for the gap to be filled so we can go long in Nifty. Once the gap is
filled there may be no more hiccups from bank nifty.

42800 not written aggressively.

42900 still have it and shorts are increasing and put OI covering.

One more push and they can get there. Another 10 points and the gap will be
filled.

So near yet so far. Trying to play safe with nifty now.

By this time, they should have closed the gap and moved on but no they came
so close to the gap and away again

Just 2 points away from the gap again. Slowly the direction is getting changed.
As long as nifty remains bullish there is no need to worry

They need one big move else the premiums will not move at all

They are packing the way up now. 18350 around 15 rupees may be the hero or
zero for the day. Hope there is no huge profit booking though.

01:30 PM

Almost literally there again and can they bring it further down now?

Look at the candle all those who played for the gap on pe side you would have
all been taken out.
One move and all WMA VWAP and ST being taken out now

All in one move.

And there is a long wick on the top. They are just not able to hold above the
Super trend level.

You can be surprised to see one large green bar as well.

Nifty is on the verge to make a new high and 18400 on the cards.

Watch out for nifty. Nifty is extremely bullish than bank nifty
Some serious covering needs to come in bank nifty as well for Nifty to move in
a jiffy as well.

Now they are heading to VWAP level again in bank nifty.

One more push towards VWAP can go for a long trade again. Nifty bank is also
trying to get into the groove now.
Now they will try to defend the VWAP level for the calls.

02:00 PM

This time if they come lower, it may become a different story as it may result in
some serious profit booking as well.

The game has been played well with low IV environment. All the moves on
down side is being bought. Need to see if bank nifty supports nifty move.
Shorts need to cover else you will again see market consolidating around
VWAP level.
Some premiums left on call side so you can expect them to play around in the
range and writers get on the job again

Bank nifty s trying to move higher now. There has to be massive decrease in call
side and increase in put side.

Again, they are coming to VWAP levels again.

This has brought call and put premiums are par now

42900 has the maximum Open Interest now.

DOW Jones is stable for the day and all factors in favour of bulls.

Nifty is on another level today. Can they, do it?

Nifty has been bullish all day but there are no volumes in nifty as well.

When market moves with volumes you can predict those levels might be
protected by the ones who created them.
Look to book 18350 that was informed when RSI is around 70-75 range.

A 100 point to move is being appreciated now in low IV environment. Earlier

you would expect a 100-200 point move in one candle as well.

Time to watch out. Again, a gap in bank nifty now

A 12-point gap and the gap are almost getting filled and they filled it.

Can they make the move now n the upside is the question

Gaps are getting created by the basket order buying and selling and normally
these 3-minute gaps are filled. This is what we saw now.
Now that the gap is filled and VWAP and ST in a narrow range you can see a
fierce move on up side if they can get higher than 42980 levels again.
Breaking VWAP may result in some serious profit booking which can close the
previous gap as well.

Again, the WMA coming into the picture. Will they take support and let the
market go higher?

If 43000 is taken out you can see a strong short covering as well.
 14:30

42900 if t comes around 20 odd levels will be your hero or zero.18400 on the
nifty can be your hero of zero.

At 14:30 today might be the day as they have been giving writers expiries all
this month.
You still have 30 minutes left for the 3 pm move.

Call side need to cover hugely in both nifty and bank nifty to give you the short
covering move
Shorts have been starting to cover now and nifty is on the move.

Can bank nifty also follow suit and all its required is one push

They can keep pushing in the last 30 minutes as well. If they add more positions
in PE side you and see that.

Bank nifty if falling now instead towards Super trend and VWAP level.

They are just playing for the premiums. Longs are unwinding now in bank nifty
which is not letting it go higher.
Bank nifty giving up now with longs booking their profit

VWAP and ST getting breached now.

18300 looks to be the best bet now for the hero or zero.

Any move towards 60-70 will be a great opportunity

Scalping is what is working in such an environment. Nothing at all for intraday
players holding on to their trades.

42800 to 80 odd levels are a bet along with 42900 at 15-20 odd levels.

Again, an up move breaking the VWAP and heading for the ST level now.

Very tight level now. Now is the opportunity.

Someone is trying to initiate longs in the next series as well.

The ST is the level to break for the 3 PM move.

Again, a small pullback seen.

One big move to take it above the territory and shorts will run for cover and
you will have a clear move.
Some writing coming towards day end. Can it be a trap?

Now the move seems to be happening.

Can you bring in the volume please? They just need to keep pushing and they
are literally getting there.

03:00 PM
One more push else we might see a long wick and the fall come down.

Its happening at 3 PM and they are moving higher now and it’s a big move
towards the end.

Will they be trapping these fresh buyers now?

Keep trailing and 18400 has already doubled.

It was an amazing day and now we are seeing a wick being formed.

10-26 move in 18400 CE

10-30 now in 18400 CE

and now 37 in 18400 CE

You cannot get better than this

This is what helped…

It has a potential to fall as well as 18400 may close around 22.

Trail it and they are killing the shorts now.

18400 CE has gone to 44 now

Don’t get greed take control. It is a perfect thanksgiving for us as well.

Expect first half to be bullish tomorrow and next series is getting in bullish
territory.

Both nifty and bank nifty are getting bullish in the next series

18400 CE is 60 now. What a move…

Don’t short a dull market!
By Sivakumar Jayachandran

Thank you!