Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Balance Sheet
Major Shareholders
Year End Dec (IDRbn) 2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2024F
Cash and equivalents 678 3,232 1,315 2,528 4,112
Other curr asset 2,931 3,428 5,689 5,283 4,395 Elang Mahkota Teknologi (%) 61.0
Net fixed asset 1,479 1,547 1,646 1,757 1,861 Public (%) 24.5
Other asset 1,678 1,707 1,703 1,701 1,701 Treasury shares (%) 14.6
Total asset 6,767 9,913 10,353 11,269 12,069
ST debt 201 7 - - - SWOT Analysis
Other curr liab 1,341 1,691 1,996 2,046 2,040
LT debt 1,123 606 616 681 741
Other LT Liab 205 149 152 155 158 Strength Weakness
Minority interest 624 1,073 799 659 572 Strong TV and OTT Waning FTA
Total Liabilities 2,870 2,452 2,764 2,882 2,939
market share, and growth and rising
Shareholders Equity 3,272 6,388 6,789 7,728 8,559
healthy book with cost from
Net debt 646 net cash net cash net cash net cash
ample cash. aggressive digital
Total cap employed 5,224 8,216 8,357 9,223 10,030
Net Working capital 2,067 4,963 5,008 5,764 6,468 expansion.
Cash Flow
Opportunity Threat
Year End Dec (IDRbn) 2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2024F
Exposure to Fierce
Net Profit 1,148 1,347 1,088 1,438 1,581
Depr / Amort 214 216 229 243 258 growing digital competition from
Chg in Working Cap 537 (148) (1,955) 456 881 media. content-based
CF's from oprs 1,900 1,416 (638) 2,137 2,720 platforms and
Capex (141) (230) (275) (299) (306) online media.
Others (74) (81) (50) (54) (55)
CF's from investing (215) (311) (325) (353) (361)
Net change in debt 100 (194) (7) - - ESG Highlights
Others (1,652) 1,644 (948) (572) (774)
CF's from financing (1,551) 1,450 (955) (572) (774)
Environmental
Net cash flow 133 2,554 (1,917) 1,213 1,585
Cash at BoY 545 678 3,232 1,315 2,528 • Minimizing energy consumption
Cash at EoY 678 3,232 1,315 2,528 4,112 through water recycling and smart
building system.
Ratio Analysis • Developing dedicated environmental
Year End Dec 2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2024F conservations.
Profitability
Gross Margin 51.2% 51.3% 42.7% 45.8% 48.4% Social
Opr Margin 28.6% 29.6% 19.7% 23.8% 25.8%
• Promoting health protocols and local
EBITDA Margin 31.8% 32.3% 22.2% 26.3% 28.4%
cultures through contents.
Net Margin 22.5% 22.7% 15.4% 18.6% 20.0%
ROAE 29.5% 17.9% 12.3% 16.2% 17.1% • Providing broadcasting educations
ROAA 17.0% 13.5% 9.0% 12.0% 12.9% through Akademi Televisi Indonesia.
Stability • Gathering donations from its
Current ratio (x) 2.3 3.9 3.5 3.8 4.2 audiences for those in need.
Net Debt to Equity (x) 0.2 net cash net cash net cash net cash
Interest Coverage (x) 185.8 34.1 32.5 38.6 39.3 Governance
Efficiency • BoD team that is split half in terms
Receivable days 136 124 124 124 124 of gender composition.
Inventory days 98 99 99 99 99 • Audited by a big-4 firm.
Payable days 68 89 89 89 89
Vidio's World Cup NPV (IDRbn) M+0 M+1 M+2 M+3 M+4 M+5 M+6 M+7 M+8 M+9 M+10 M+11 M+12 Y+1 Y+2 Y+3
Total revenue 27 6 6 6 6 6 27 6 6 6 6 6 6 75 77 79
Additional subs from World Cup (mn) 0.60 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.60* 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30
Post-event churn rate (%) 50%
ARPU (IDRk/subscriber) 45 20 20 20 20 20 45* 20 20 20 20 20 20 249 257 264
World Cup ARPU** 45
Regular monthly ARPU, 9M22 data 20
ARPU YoY adjustments (%) 3%
Source: Company, Trimegah Research. Note: Starting period is Nov-Dec 2023 when the World Cup takes place.
*World Cup U-20 in May-Jun '23; Assuming subscribers are back to World Cup 2022 level, but then churned back the months after
**25% discount to average listing prices of Vidio's World Cup packages
• We use an NPV analysis because we believe SCMA’s World Cup purchase has a long-term carry-
over impact, especially to Vidio business.
• So instead of treating the World Cup's impact as a one-time, we also estimate the future cashflow
from the potential retained subscribers after World Cup. We set the churn rate at 50%.
• Note that, Vidio has many other sport programs in the platform to attract returning subscribers,
such as soccer's English Premier League (EPL), Champions League, Europa League, and Liga 1,
basketball's NBA and IBL, and so on.
• We only forecast the future cashflows up until 4 years after the event (2026F), because we
assume, to further retain the subscribers that are gained from World Cup, SCMA has to acquire
the next World Cup license, which is too far ahead to forecast and possesses uncertainties.
• As can be seen from the table, we assume another subscription hike in May-Jun '23 (M+6). This
is on the back of the U-20 World Cup 2023 event during these months, that we believe could
attract at least as many number of subscribers as World Cup Qatar 2022. Though, we set an
assumption that subscription would churn by 50% again after the event.
• Management does not disclose the license purchase cost of World Cup, but stated it was at par
to EPL. Although SCMA also does not disclose its EPL license purchase, one of the past season's
EPL distribution partners, TVRI, revealed that the 2019/20 EPL license was purchased at
USD40mn by Djarum’s Mola. It was also mentioned that in total, EPL earned UEFA 29% higher
revenue from overseas licenses in 2022 (GBP5.3bn) vs 2018 (GBP4.1bn). To also plug-in the
effect of GBP weakening against USD (10% lower in 2022 vs. 2018) and some margin of error,
we set the assumption of SCMA's World Cup purchase value at USD50mn.
• During its recent call, SCMA also mentioned that the cost accounting for World Cup will be 30%
on Vidio's book and 70% on SCMA's.
• For the calculation of monthly average revenue per user (ARPU), we took the average of World
Cup package prices listed in Vidio (Figure 3) and discount it by 25% to account for any price
discount done by Vidio and its distribution partners, where we arrive at a monthly ARPU of
IDR45k/month for World Cup subscription. For post-World-Cup subscription, we set at
IDR20k/month, which is equal to Vidio's ARPU in 9M22.
• Beside the license purchase cost, we also consider potential other costs arising from World Cup
at an opex-to-revenue assumption of 24%, equal to 9M22 SCMA's aggregate opex run-rate.
Figure 4. World Cup early performance data after 10 days (Nov 20-30)
Cash flow 2
Vidio Performances 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22
No. of subscribers, EoQ (mn) 1.1 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.0
Monthly active users (mn) 70 72 75 62 66 60 60 60
Quarterly (IDRbn) 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22
Total revenue 93 101 124 149 155 158 231
Total costs (109) (105) na na (283) (257) (443)
Net losses (16) (4) na na (128) (99) (212)
Figure 8. SCMA’s Vidio customer acquisition costs (CAC) and CAC payback period
Vidio's CAC and CAC payback 2019 2020 2021 9M22 Total
Customer acquisition costs (IDRbn) 115 349 531 983 1,978
Business acquisition cost (IDRbn) 115 - - - 115
Direct costs and opex (IDRbn) - 349 531 983 1,863
2022F 2023F
SCMA % Change % Change
Previous Adjusted Previous Adjusted
Television Revenue Growth (%) 10.0% 16.6% 6.6% 10.0% 7.7% (2.3%)
Vidio Subscribers (mn) 2.7 3.5 29.6% 3.1 4.2 35.5%
Vidio's ARPU (IDRk/month) 20.0 21.0 5.0% 21.0 22.1 5.0%
Content Cost Growth (%) 44.0% 44.0% - 3.0% 3.0% -
Total Opex Growth (%) 20.0% 25.7% 5.7% 5.0% 4.4% (0.6%)
Financials
Revenue (IDRbn) 6,619 7,086 7.1% 7,004 7,722 10.3%
Gross Profit (IDRbn) 2,968 3,022 1.8% 3,224 3,537 9.7%
Operating Profit (IDRbn) 1,452 1,399 (3.6%) 1,675 1,841 9.9%
Net Profit (IDRbn) 1,165 1,088 (6.6%) 1,307 1,438 10.0%
Ratio Analysis
Gross Margin (%) 44.8% 42.7% (2.2%) 46.0% 45.8% (0.2%)
Operating Margin (%) 21.9% 19.7% (2.2%) 23.9% 23.8% (0.1%)
Net Margin (%) 17.6% 15.4% (2.2%) 18.7% 18.6% (0.0%)
Market cap P/E (x) P/S (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%)
Company name Ticker
(USDmn) 2021 2022F 2023F 2021 2022F 2023F 2021 2022F 2023F 2021 2022F 2023F
Media sector Median 24.4 22.1 23.9 4.7 3.2 3.0 9.6 10.9 9.2 13.6 14.6 13.8
Mix media (TV + paid OTT) Median 15.3 14.5 12.3 3.5 3.2 3.0 8.3 6.7 6.2 13.6 14.6 13.8
Surya Citra Media SCMA IJ 1,160 15.3 14.5 12.3 3.5 2.7 2.4 9.6 10.9 9.2 28.1 32.8 20.0
Media Nusantara Citra MNCN IJ 805 5.0 4.6 4.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 3.6 3.4 3.2 13.6 14.6 13.8
Zee Entertainment Z IN 3,152 24.4 22.1 26.7 2.5 3.2 3.0 10.0 14.3 16.6 5.8 11.2 10.6
Sun TV Network SUNTV IN 2,401 12.2 11.7 11.5 5.8 5.4 4.9 7.3 6.7 6.2 24.6 23.4 22.1
BEC World BEC TB 598 37.1 30.4 24.3 5.0 3.9 3.6 8.3 6.4 6.0 -3.9 12.6 10.4
Paid OTT w/o TV Median 95.7 28.3 26.2 6.9 3.3 3.1 40.7 19.6 18.0 13.2 20.6 16.2
Netflix NFLX US 141,049 56.0 29.7 28.5 9.0 4.5 4.1 42.9 23.8 21.1 29.6 36.9 24.8
Walt Disney Co DIS US 179,788 135.4 26.9 23.9 4.7 2.1 2.0 38.4 15.3 14.8 -3.3 4.2 7.5
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