CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT AND ADAPTATION IN

LANDLOCKED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES –

CASE OF MONGOLIA

Dulguun.D
Director of Operations
International Think Tank for LLDCs

COP26
ENHANCING THE CAPACITY OF LANDLOCKED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES TO ADDRESS
CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY AND WATER-RELATED CHALLENGES DURING THE COVID-19
ERA: Experiences and Solutions
3 November 2021
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON LLDC
• Rise of global temperatures, Increase of intense precipitation events,
More draughts and heat waves, Stronger hurricanes, Rise of sea
level, and Melting of ice caps.

• Around 54% of 32 LLDCs land is classified as dryland. 60% of the

population of LLDCs live in the drylands.

• Economic impact due to lost agricultural production caused by

drought, extreme heat, and flood.

• LLDCs are lack of resources (GDP, health care systems, technology,

etc.) to mitigate and adapt the climate change.

• Most of LLDCs are experiencing poor governance.

KEY POINTS OF MONGOLIA
• Mongolia has a very low population density with population of 3.3
million people (2020).
• The contributing sectors to Mongolia’s economy and GDP: Mining,
Agriculture and particularly animal husbandry.
• Mongolia’s geographic location, extreme weather and fragile
ecosystems, coupled with prominent pastoral livestock and rain-fed
agriculture sectors, make Mongolia’s economy, livelihood and
traditional cultures highly vulnerable to climate change risks.
 CLIMATE CHANGE TRENDS IN MONGOLIA
Observed changes
TEMPERATURE The annual average temperature
has increased three times faster
since 1940 than the global average
(by 2.24°C).
PRECIPITATION A slight decline (7 per cent) in
annual rainfall has been observed,
which is most pronounced in the
central regions in Mongolia.
EXTREME Drought conditions have increased,
EVENTS as have the number of consecutive
drought years since 2000.
Consecutive wet days and the days
with heavy rainfall have declined
over the period 1971–2015.
The intensity of the Dzud has
increased.
The number of days of dust storms
has increased significantly, from 18
days to 57 days over the period
1960–2007 and occur mainly in
spring.
Sources: CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE, 2021, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON HEALTH AND LIVELIHOODS:
MONGOLIA ASSESSMENT REPORT, April 2021
Short term projection (2020-2039)
Projections suggest a further increase
of monthly temperature in the short
term by 2.0–2.3°C degrees.
The differences in seasons will
become more pronounced.
Drought conditions are likely to
worsen in the next twenty years, with
severe droughts becoming 15–18 per
cent more
likely across the country.
The frequency of extreme rainfall
events is to increase slightly,
especially in the eastern region.
Projections suggest that there may
be a temporary reduction in Dzud
likelihood in the near term.
There are no projections available
for dust- and snowstorms specifically,
although continued land
degradation will likely increase dust
formation.
Long term projection (up to 2100)
Temperatures will continue to rise above
the global average in the range 2.4–
6.3°C by 2081–2100.
An overall increase in annual rainfall is
projected (8–14 per cent by 2080–2099)
Winter snow is projected to increase by
15.5–50.2 per cent in the long-term.
The country is expected to see an
increase in drought conditions, with
more incidences of consecutive drought
years in future, especially in the western
and eastern regions.
Projections for extreme rainfall suggest
more intense events by 2050 with rainfall
amounts increasing by 15 per cent
during events.
The frequency of Dzud is expected to
increase by 5–20 per cent under
moderate global emissions scenarios
and for high emission scenarios by 5–40
per cent.
The frequency of extreme events like
heatwaves, windstorms and snowstorms
will also increase by 23–60 per cent by
2050 (USAID 2017).
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN MONGOLIA

• Warming of over 2°C and declines in rainfall.

• Chronic drought and dust storms.

• River flood.

• Potential loss of forest cover and associated species.

• Downward pressure on yields of current agricultural crops, particularly

wheat, threatening Mongolia’s food security.

• Poorest communities face significant damage and loss.

• Focus on the interplay between climate changes and current

development trends in Mongolia.
Climate change adaptation policies and strategies
in Mongolia

• National Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC)

(2011)

• Government policy on disaster protection (2011)

• Green Development Policy (2014)

• Mongolia’s Sustainable Development Vision – 2030 (2016)

• Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2020

• Presidential Decree issued on 04 October 2021

• National strategy and action plan for reducing emissions from

deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+)
ROLE OF ITTLLDC

• An intergovernmental organization for the Group of LLDCs at the UN

• A platform for knowledge sharing, deepening collaboration,
generating knowledge and developing the analytical tools to
overcome LLDCs common challenges by:

• Conducting high quality research and studies

• Networking between public and private entities

• Providing data analysis and information

• Raise awareness of the common challenges of the LLDCs

• The study reports and research papers are available at
http://land-locked.org
 THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION.

UN House Tel: 976-11-351971

United Nations Street-14 E-mail: thinktank@land-locked.org
Sukhbaatar district Website: www.land-locked.org
Ulaanbaatar 14201 https://www.facebook.com/ITTLLDC
Mongolia https://twitter.com/ITTLLDC