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25/11/2022 03:13 The Precarious State of the Mekong – The Diplomat
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The Precarious
State of the
Mekong
Prolonged stress on the
Lower Mekong Basin is
reaching an ecological
tipping point, threatening
millions of livelihoods.
By Nicholas Muller
November 24, 2022
https://thediplomat.com/2022/11/the-precarious-state-of-the-mekong/ 1/36
An ethnic Vietnamese boy living with his

family in a floating village in Kampong
Chhnang, Cambodia, close to the Tonle Sap
lake.
Credit: Nicholas Muller
The author Tucker Elliot wrote in “The Rainy

Season” about the volatile nature of the
“
Mekong:
“No matter the border, the Mekong has

been an indiscriminate giver and taker
of life in Southeast Asia for thousands
of years. It’s a paradox like civilization’s
other great rivers – be it the Nile, Indus,
Euphrates, Ganges, or China’s Sorrow,
the Huang He – for without its waters
life is a daily struggle for survival; yet
with its waters life is a daily bet that
natural disasters and diseases will visit
”
someone else’s village, because it’s not
if, but when it’s going to happen that’s
the relevant question.”
Generations of people along the Mekong,

which flows through six countries, have long
had a profound, even spiritual bond with the
mighty river: from the highlands of Tibet
through the Golden Triangle down to the
Mekong Delta, it is one of the most biodiverse
freshwater regions in the world, rivaled only
by that of the Amazon. For centuries, the
transboundary Mekong has been Southeast
Asia’s lifeline for millions of people and
wildlife. Long considered the “most productive
place on Earth” for fishermen and farmers
who have come to depend on it, things have
changed dramatically for the river’s fortunes,
most notably in the last decade.
An aerial view of the Mekong in the Sambor

district of northern Cambodia, close to the
newly revived Stung Treng Dam project.
Photo by Nicholas Muller.
Disequilibrium in the Mekong has become the

new norm: droughts, floods, and low fish
stocks are becoming more frequent. The
immense environmental destruction taking
place throughout the basin is a consequence of
multiple dam projects, mainly constructed by
China’s government, which have likely
permanently altered the river’s characteristics.
Pollution, overfishing, and resource extraction
threatens irreversible damage to the delicate
ecosystem. According to historical data, 2021
was the 9th driest season on record in the
Mekong basin.
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To make things worse, a new UNESCO report

released just ahead of COP27 warned that
numerous icefields around the world are
likely to vanish by 2050 which will have a
substantial effect on river basins including the
Mekong. This will highly affect the basins into
which glacier meltwater drains, including half
of the world’s biodiversity hotspots. David
Dudgeon, emeritus professor of ecology and
biodiversity at the University of Hong Kong,
recently told the SCMP that climate change
would further degrade the Yangtze and

Mekong rivers which flow from the Tibetan
plateau to Southeast Asia. Both are already
“heavily dammed.”
“Dams on the river, and changes to the natural

flow regime that would result from glacial
melt, would put the food security of large
numbers of people at risk,” Dudgeon said.
Other factors are exacerbating the Mekong’s

demise. Anthropogenic climate change
continues to intensify, heightening the
uncertainty of what the next season could
bring. Three consecutive years of severe
droughts have wrought havoc on the Mekong’s
water levels, bringing them to record lows.
Simultaneously, the COVID-19 pandemic
decimated the income of fishing communities,
worsened environmental degradation in many
areas, and expanded detrimental fishing
practices like illegal electric fishing, which
happen without much oversight. As a new dry
season approaches, uneven flow can cause
severe problems for people: either there is too
little or too much water; droughts are often
followed by floods.
A family at sunset in Phnom Penh,

Cambodia. The Cambodian capital has
experienced a boom and has increased
pollution of the Mekong River significantly
in the last decade. Photo by Nicholas Muller.
Risks are also high for lower basin countries

that are heavily dependent on fishing and rice
cultivation. Their industries are vital,
providing half the region’s food supplies. The
threat looms largest in Cambodia, where the
risk of a food crisis is already heightened. If
the Tonle Sap, the world’s largest inland
fishery, underperforms in any given year, it
can have ripple effects for the entire Mekong
region. The lake alone yields a quarter of the
world’s total freshwater catch annually and is
responsible for 70 percent of Cambodian’s
annual protein intake. Throughout the basin,
60 million people stake their livelihoods on
income somehow related to fish.
Lucrative sand mining and sediment removal

have been twin shocks for the river,
accelerating riverbank erosion and adding to
the Mekong’s structural decay.
“Sediment is the critical building block of all

the resources that come out of the Mekong
system. Dams are holding back sediment,
which is being mined from the river at a very
alarming rate in Phnom Penh and around
Cambodia. It’s unregulated, and a lot of it is
illegal,” says Brian Eyler, the Southeast Asia
program director of the Stimson Center and
co-lead of its Mekong Dam Monitor Project.
“Most communities don’t know about what is

happening in other sections of the river. The
Mekong is dying a death of a thousand cuts
from these dams,” says Eyler.
An aerial view of sand mining of the Mekong

in Kratie, Cambodia. Although officially
banned in Cambodia for being highly
destructive to the environment, this
valuable sand ends up in cities around Asia
for construction projects. Photo by Nicholas
Muller.
A Symbol of a Perilous Future

Chun, a boatman from Kampi, Cambodia, has

spent his whole life along this stretch of the
river making a living as a fisherman. Like
many generations before him, he acclimated to
the flood-drought cycle of fish migrations with
some level of predictability. Although some
years were rough, subsequent years would be
better. From his small wooden house raised on
stilts, he spent his life with the same daily
routine: cranking his small boat engine and
heading out to the middle of the river for
hours, waiting patiently for the big fish he
would dependably catch there.
Like clockwork, in large pods around his boat,

the revered Mekong Irrawaddy river dolphins
that feed in the area’s deep pools would come
up for air to greet him. These pools serve as a
critical refuge for numerous fish species to
“feed and grow, maintaining the integrity and
productivity of the ecosystem.” Upriver in
Myanmar, the remaining dolphins living there

(70), have long been critical to help local
fisherman steer herds of fish into their nets, in
a practice called “cooperative fishing”.
Chun, a seasoned boatman in Kampi,

Cambodia. Photo by Nicholas Muller.
Before the pandemic, hordes of tourists would

flock to see the river dolphins, boosting Chun’s
income, particularly in the dry season.
Deemed the “flagship species” for the
Mekong’s conservation efforts, the dolphin
now serves as a dark symbol of what is
transpiring on the Mekong today. The dolphins
once thrived throughout the Mekong, but this
past February, an Irrawaddy river dolphin
died in a transboundary pool between Laos
and Cambodia – the last known to be living
outside Cambodia’s borders. The World Wide
Fund for Nature (WWF) estimates that there
are just 92 dolphins left in Cambodia. A new
estimate of the country’s remaining dolphin
population will be out next year.
Chun’s fish hauls have also declined. Just over

a decade ago, the river had yields of 2.3
million tons of fish a year when there were
few upstream dams.
“I only catch a few fish now on a good day,”

Chun says.
Like his dwindling fish returns, his cherished

dolphin days are likely numbered too. “Only a
few dolphins I used to see regularly appear. I

think there are just dozens of them left,” Chun
reckons. The Mekong subspecies are now
critically endangered and are under
considerable threat by destructive fishing
practices in the area.
Chun’s future, like the Irrawaddy dolphin, is

tied to things seemingly out of his control and
similar to the volatility millions of people and
species throughout the Mekong are facing
today: increasingly tenuous and unstable
livelihoods. The loss feels overwhelming. “We
are living season to season now,” Chun says.
An Irrawaddy dolphin emerging from a

deep pool in the middle of the Mekong River
in Kampi, Cambodia. Photo by Nicholas
Muller.
Climate Invariability, Dam Concerns
It’s been another wild and volatile summer for

the Mekong in August and September. “The
biggest change in the region since 2019, the
basin went through this period of three low-
flow wet seasons, mostly caused by climate
factors and lack of rain,” Eyler says. The wet
season, which normally runs from June to
November, has likely been permanently
disrupted.
Eyler says the Mekong River Commission

(MRC) believes that “rapid river level
fluctuations, including due to climatic

variability, are becoming the norm. A shift in
daily and seasonal flow patterns resulting
from water being stored for regional power
has disrupted the Mekong’s ecology, putting
lives and livelihoods at risk.”
Marc Goichot, WWF’s lead for freshwater in

the Asia-Pacific region, told DW he also
“attributes the cause of record-low water
levels to several factors, including changes of
land use and changes in rainfall patterns
brought about by the climate crisis.”
New tools at experts’ disposal hope to make it

easier to predict and track trends from week
to week, and also longer-term trends. The
Mekong Dam Monitor tool is an invaluable
resource to better understand the big picture
in “near-real time” to monitor the dams and
environmental impacts throughout the
Mekong Basin.
“With the development of the Mekong dam

monitor, we discovered that dams are
exacerbating low flows and drought
conditions during the wet season,” says Eyler.
“The string of low-flow wet seasons should be
understood as drought: lack of water, lack of
resources provided by the natural flow of the
river. This means fish migration is down,
nutrients that are supported by a high wet
season flow through sediment and other
transport of nutrients through peak river flow,
that’s one of the factors that has been causing
a drop in fish population during the last three
years and that translates to a lower fish catch.”

A man casts his net while standing on

dangerous rocks to catch fish where the
Mekong turns into rapids in southern Laos.
Ian Baird, director of the Center for Southeast

Asia Studies at the University of Wisconsin-
Madison, is particularly worried about the
cumulative impacts dams are having,
particularly on the flooded forests in Stung
Treng province, in the northeastern part of
Cambodia bordering Laos. “One of the biggest
threats to the Mekong right now is too much
water in the dry season,” says Baird. “That’s
combined with not enough water for the flood
pulse, which are related issues. The increasing
frequency of wet season drought in the Lower
Basin tracks closely to the way China releases
water during the dry season and restricts
water during the wet season.”
These forests, which are a Ramsar–designated

wetlands site, are situated directly on the
Mekong and are dying due to dry season
upriver dam releases which have serious
consequences downstream for forests, fish,
and birds dependent on these rich feeding
grounds. They are likely the most significant in
the entire Mekong Basin and are crucial to the
river’s ecology and livelihoods.
“These dams are having a big impact

downstream and I think this is why the issue
of the flooded forest in Stung Treng is so

important because while there’s been a lot of
discussion about cumulative impacts of all of
these dams. The flooded forest is the most
obvious first real clear cumulative impact of
these dams and it’s wiping out a whole world-
class wetland,” Baird says. “Cambodia can do
nothing to mitigate what’s happening in the
flooded forests right now. It’s out of their
hands and it depends on what Laos and China
do.”
The Khone falls in southern Laos mark the

point where the Mekong River turns into
rapids in Laos, just north of the Cambodian
border. Photo by Nicholas Muller.
In the Tonle Sap, “If we look at MRC data, we

can see that this wet season is an
improvement over the past three years – but
it’s still well below the long-term average in
terms of water level and flow volume. This is
basically what would be expected, as 2019,
2020, and 2021 were drought years. That we’re
still seeing less than average (which measures
1997-2021) also makes sense, as we know
upstream dams are changing the hydrology of
the Mekong and Tonle Sap rivers, (with a
possible reversal),” Abby Seiff, a Tonle Sap
expert, says.
Eyler is also worried about another dam on an

important Mekong tributary, the Sekong, that
he believes is not being talked about enough.

“On the Sekong River, which runs parallel to
the Mekong mainstream to the east of it on the
Lao-Cambodia border, there is a Vietnamese
dam being built in Laos on the Cambodian
border just upstream from it that would block
the migratory pattern of fish from the Sekong
River, which is the only remaining free-
flowing long tributary of the Mekong,” he says.
If the Sekong dam is completed, Eyler predicts

that it would be a game-over scenario and that
the small dam would be as impactful as
building the larger Stung Treng and Sambor
dams planned for the Mekong mainstream.
“There needs to be more information provided
about that dam because not much has been
disclosed,” he says, expressing the hope that
the project could be delayed or halted. As of
September, Cambodia also appears ready to
restart the once-stalled Stung Treng dam
project.
A fisherman untangles his net before going

out to more remote areas of the Mekong in
Kratie province, Cambodia. Photo by
Nicholas Muller.
Mekong Biodiversity at a Critical Juncture
Fishing and farming have long been the

mainstays of Mekong communities for
generations, and that sense of stability has
been tested. Fostering more fish species per

unit area than even the Amazon, the Mekong
is estimated to provide a habitat for at least
1,100 species of fish. According to the
WWF, four out of the top ten giant freshwater
fish species still inhabit the Mekong River and
it is home to more giant fish species than any
other river on the planet. Two of the fish, the
giant catfish and the freshwater stingray, have
gained mythical status and international
renown as the flagship Mekong species.
However, they are under constant threat.
According to the IUCN, the giant catfish is
critically endangered, and the Mekong
freshwater stingray is listed as an endangered
species.
Dr. Zeb Hogan, a research biologist at the

University of Nevada, Reno, says these
particular species have a special significance
for the Mekong. “These iconic fish are
symbolic of the overall health of the river, and
losing them is a warning that current
safeguards are not adequate to protect
biodiversity and fisheries. The threats that the
most vulnerable fish face – habitat destruction,
changes in river hydrology and spawning
cues, and loss of river connectivity – also
impact other more common and commercially
important fish,” Hogan says.
As the giant catfish and the Mekong

freshwater stingray are long-distance
migrants, it means the rhythms of their lives
are highly dependent on unimpeded access up
and down the river. The giant catfish is now
increasingly uncommon, with a population
decline of at least 50 percent in the last two
decades in Thailand alone. The Mekong
stingray has also undergone a population
reduction of 50–79 percent over the past three
generation lengths (45 years).
An aerial view of a fisherman casting his net

on the Tonle Sap lake, Cambodia. Photo by
Nicholas Muller.
“The concern is that the disappearance of the

most vulnerable species won’t be the last
domino to fall but the first, and that the
decline of species like the Irrawaddy dolphin
and Mekong giant catfish will be followed by
more pervasive environmental problems and
could ultimately lead to the collapse of the
world’s largest inland fishery,” says Hogan.

In June, Hogan’s team accomplished a historic

feat. They caught and release the largest
Mekong stingray ever recorded, and possibly
the world’s largest freshwater fish, on the
small river island of Koh Preah, south of Stung
Treng. “More conservation action is needed,”
he says. “Many of the Mekong’s most iconic
species are at risk of extinction. The presence
of this incredible but highly endangered
animal, in an area that supports the
livelihoods and food security of millions of
people, shows plain as day the urgent need for
conservation programs and the potential
benefits of government, scientists, and local
communities coming together to safeguard the
wonders of the Mekong.”
Despite these difficulties, Hogan tries to also

see some bright spots in the Cambodian
section of the Mekong: “A variety of factors

define river health: water quality, natural flow
regime, connectivity, sediment load, fisheries
productivity, and biodiversity status. The
Cambodian Mekong remains largely free-
flowing, fisheries remain an incredibly
important source of nutrition and livelihoods,
and iconic species – like the Mekong giant
catfish, giant stingray, and Irrawaddy dolphin
– persist, despite the challenges they face.”
A woman sells fish in the Cambodian city of

Kratie. Photo by Nicholas Muller.
China’s Mekong Narrative, Missing Data
In an aggressive effort to sway public opinion,

China continues to push falsely positive
narratives about the health of the Mekong
River. It has been overstating the benefits of
dams, hoping to deflect criticism from the
damage they have caused, and instead shifting
the blame primarily to climate change. “I
worry about knee-jerk reactions to things that
happen downstream that would align with
China’s upstream discourse,” says Eyler.
He says the most common narrative is that

Chinese upstream dams are a regional public
good by “storing water in the wet season and
releasing water in the dry season” for
downstream states. “No one downstream is
asking for that,” he says.
Downstream countries do not agree with

China’s narrative about the river.
“Although the impact of climate change in the

Mekong basin has been well-documented,
overemphasis on this factor runs the risk of
obscuring and even whitewashing the
controversy over Mekong hydropower
development,” says Eyler. “China’s unilaterally
imposed narratives that obscure the full,
complex picture is part of the problem, not the
remedy.”
Passengers board the new Laos-China

railway in Boten, northern Laos. The new
train connects Kunming, China to Luang
Prabang and the Lao capital Vientiane and
has dramatically altered the connectivity
and physical geography of northern Laos.
This year, there have been some glimmers of

progress. China has started to pledge more
information sharing and more cooperation
downstream, which began before the Mekong
Dam Monitor (MDM).
Eyler says that now that the MDM is

operational, and the MRC has a lot more
information about how the major dams in the
system are operated, the Chinese have been
increasing their pledges for data sharing and
increasing cooperation on joint studies on the
future management of the river at increasing

frequency. “All Mekong countries face these
trade-offs and have a share of responsibility
over the state of the river. Therefore, the cure
for the dying Mekong must begin with clinical
analysis and honest exchange among river
states,” Eyler says.
To fill the information gap, Eyler says the

MDM is providing information on China’s
dams, and the largest dams in the system. “But
there’s nothing better than the real thing, so
China needs to provide its information too
downstream to fill the critical gap with real
physical data rather than data that is
estimated through satellite remote sensing
techniques,” he adds. “We think that our
efforts paint a fuller picture, but it’s not. And a
perfect picture can be painted with better
cooperation with China.”
Homes built for people displaced by Chinese

construction projects in northern Laos. It is
often difficult for people in communities to
work properly without access to farmland or
to the Mekong they once had. Photo by
Nicholas Muller.
Thailand’s Golden Triangle: Chiang Saen

and Chiang Khong
Chiang Saen, in the heart of the Golden

Triangle where the three countries meet, sits
at an important crossroads for the Mekong.

The area serves as a key gauge for the entire
lower Mekong basin facing Laos. “Using 1992-
2019 satellite data and daily river height gauge
data from Chiang Saen, Thailand, the April
2020 Eyes on Earth report highlighted the
connection between the unprecedented
drought during the wet season in the Lower
Mekong in 2019 and Chinese upstream dams’
restriction of a large amount of water to
prioritize the selling of hydropower,” Eyler
says.

This year, data suggests that a lot of water is

still missing from Chiang Saen because of
dams. According to Eyes on Earth, “there
should still be 50 percent more water in the
river than is currently observed.”
At a small port in Chiang Saen, Thailand in

the northern triangle, fishermen bring
goods to other parts of the river and to
Laos. Photo by Nicholas Muller.
The consequences on this stretch of river have

taken a hefty toll: populations of the famous
Mekong giant catfish have plummeted by over
50 percent in just two decades. This is
nowhere more evident than in Chiang Khong,
where some of the deepest pools in the entire
Mekong exist for catfish to spawn. The

legendary catfish is regarded with veneration
in Thai culture. Its prolific days are gone,
however, and climate events have exacerbated
hardships for people here. “2019, 2020, and
2021 were really difficult years with drought
and we rarely see those fish anymore,” a local
fisherman tells The Diplomat.
While some on the Mekong feel powerless to

affect change along their stretch of the river,
Eyler says that there are pockets of successful
resistance to dams and mega-construction
projects and that Thailand is most tuned into
community interests. “You see official
announcements by Thai water authorities
about the environmental impacts of
mainstream Mekong dams that could be built
in Laos and in China on community fisheries
and livelihoods, particularly along the Thai-
Lao border,” he says.
A fisherman on the Mekong River in Chiang

Khong, Thailand, a stretch of the river
famous for its Mekong Giant Catfish. Photo
by Nicholas Muller.
“We heard about dams being built upstream

and began to see changes. Before, there was no
poverty along the Mekong River. We could fish
to support ourselves, and planted many
different crops in the rich soil, in the past giant
fish would come to lay their eggs and spawn.
The main cause for the loss of the fish catch

has been the dams upriver,” said Niwat
Roykaew, in an interview after winning the
2022 Goldman Environmental Prize.
As a school teacher turned activist from

Chiang Khong, Niwat says people are now
struggling to farm in the area. The advocacy of
Niwat and Mekong communities resulted in
the termination of the China-led Upper
Mekong River rapids blasting project, which
would have destroyed around 400 kilometers
of the Mekong to deepen navigation channels
for Chinese cargo ships traveling downstream.
However, not all battles are won: In August, a

Thai court dismissed a lawsuit involving the
company which built the Xayaburi dam.
New Chinese construction projects in once

remote areas of northern Laos are
dramatically transforming the region. Photo
by Nicholas Muller.
Diverging Climate Priorities, Food Security

Worries
According to Eyler, “It is inevitable that the

Mekong region will feel the impacts of climate
change through water, including food
insecurity, and will affect livelihoods through
poverty and increased out-migration. It will
become exponentially harder as climate
impacts become more severe, which they are
expected to do. However, these countries have

diverging priorities and immediate concerns.”
Laos is a black sheep among the four

countries. Eyler says that its government
doesn’t articulate many of the concerns other
Mekong countries have expressed about
activities along the Mekong. “They are
concerned about dam safety, and managing
this battery of dams they have now effectively
will bring more income. There is really a
divergence in terms of prioritization of
Mekong water resources utilization and
exploitation in Laos compared to the other
three countries,” he says.
Monks commute to a temple in Si Phan Don,

southern Laos. Photo by Nicholas Muller.
Regarding Vietnam, the approach is

different.“Vietnam’s concerns are about the
Mekong delta, so you bring in more climate
change impacts and the viability of the delta to
be a viable tangible space in a century from
now,” Eyler says. There are more immediate
concerns that are fisheries-related and related
to riverbank collapse. “There is so much
riverbank in the delta now that is falling into
the river and people’s homes are being
destroyed. This set of concerns seems to be
focused on preserving the land integrity, water
quality, and productivity of the delta,” he says.
The long-fruitful delta, called by some Asia’s

rice bowl, provides for 90 percent of Vietnam’s
rice exports and is an essential sanctuary for
numerous fish species which are under threat.
According to an article in Science, “Owing to
only a few decades of human influence and
unsustainable management of the Mekong
River basin’s natural resources, the Mekong
Delta is receding rapidly. Most of the delta
landform, home to 17 million people and an
economic powerhouse, could slip below sea
level by 2100.”

Today, it is one of the most at-risk deltas in the

world, particularly susceptible to climate
change. The challenges facing the Mekong
Delta are acute: subsidence and continually
extracted groundwater are significant threats,
reducing flood water storage capacity in the
Mekong Delta. In early October, reports in Can
Tho showed catastrophic flooding.
In the Mekong Delta, land subsidence is

making life harder for farmers and residents
causing many to migrate to bigger cities.
Delta Outmigration
Over decades, dimming prospects in the delta

have forced waves of primarily young people
to Ho Chi Minh City (now with a population of

more than 9 million) and to other urban areas
in Vietnam. Eyler expects this trend to
continue. “There are already too many people
living in the delta, and they were moved there
through forced migration programs by the
French, the Americans, and by the current
government for a variety of functions and
purposes,” he says. The heavy stress on the
delta’s landscape has made it more densely
populated than any other part of the Mekong.
Vietnam is aware of the seriousness of the

problem it faces. The significant outmigration
from the delta, particularly over the last
decade, is an anomaly in a country that has
experienced rapid urban population growth.
Life is becoming much harder for large parts
of the delta for several reasons: farmland is
worsening or becoming unfarmable because
of saltwater intrusion in coastal zones and
heavy pollution, along with major water
deficits. Farmers often have to take on heavy
debts to keep their livelihoods, but many
endlessly are sinking into debt like the land
itself is sinking into the sea.
A fisherman in Si Phan Don, southern Laos,

collects his fish at the end of the day from a
trap set up. Photo by Nicholas Muller.
Poor water quality is a growing problem in the

Mekong, acutely in the water-stressed delta.
According to a 2020 U.N. Water report, climate

change is expected to “exacerbate water
quality degradation as a result of higher water
temperatures, and reduced dissolved oxygen
content causing a reduction in the self-
purifying capacity of freshwater bodies.” It
adds, “there are further risks of water
pollution and pathogenic contamination
caused by flooding or by higher pollutant
concentrations during drought.”
“The impacts of dams and poor planning that

are happening in the delta right now are
pushing against the time frame that the
Vietnamese have to adapt. It is the storm surge
that will happen more and more, that’s going
to affect the sinking city,” says Eyler. “These
tides are going to push farther and farther
inland until the storm breaks the coastal
barriers into the city, and then water sticks
around for a long time.”
A man fishes with his trap on the Mekong

River. Photo by Nicholas Muller.
Those that stay in the Mekong Delta, including

many older Vietnamese, will have no choice
but to adapt their lives and their farming
methods to produce higher-value agriculture.
Eyler sees some promise in pilot projects and
some transitions happening like vertical
farming, which will produce temperate
vegetables in the delta, and chocolate
production. “There is time to manage this, the
delta won’t disappear in 20 years, so there is

probably a century to work on this and
promote a transition and so thankfully the
Vietnamese have that on their side,” he says.
In September, according to a U.S. State

Department press release, Special Presidential
Envoy for Climate John Kerry visited Vietnam
and met with Prime Minister Pham Minh
Chinh “on cooperation on combating the
climate crisis as a pillar of the relationship.”
Kerry said, “The United States is committed to
working with G7 countries and others to
support an ambitious and just energy
transition and climate change adaptation in
Viet Nam.”
More recently, on November 20, after the APEC

summit in Bangkok, the U.S. announced new
funding for new clean energy projects and
other economic development initiatives
(JUMPP) for the Mekong region. Vice President
Kamala Harris said, “In particular we know
that the climate crisis presents a real threat to
the communities who depend on the Mekong
River. In Thailand, in Vietnam, Laos.”
A displaced fisherman in Pak Ou, Laos,

where the Mekong and Nam Ou Rivers
meet. The Nam Ou 3 dam is nearby. Photo
by Nicholas Muller.
Cambodia’s Food Insecurity Worries
Eyler sees that Cambodians and Vietnamese

are prioritizing food security on their list of
Mekong issues especially because of the
importance of rice exports to the region and
the rest of the world. According to the World
Bank, the production of rice, Cambodia’s main
crop, accounting for close to 60 percent of
agricultural GDP, rose by 9.3 percent during
the 2021‒22 rice production year, reaching
12.2 million metric tons.

“In Cambodia, the focus is on the Tonle Sap

and the fisheries and keeping them robust
because of the food security concern. If the
Tonle Sap fishery fails there, so will the
Cambodian state, and there will be a severe
food crisis that breaks out there. So there is a
high political incentive to act wisely on the
[Tonle Sap], and Cambodia has a big incentive
to work on Mekong fishery issues,” he says.
Eyler currently doesn’t see much political will

to engage with Laos or China in a smarter way
for dams to be operated.
A woman weighs her fish at the early

morning market in Kratie, Cambodia. Photo
by Nicholas Muller.
At the beginning of August, sounding the

alarm, the United States announced it would
provide Cambodia with $25 million in

agriculture aid to help alleviate global food
insecurity worsened by the war in Ukraine,
and to prevent a future food crisis.
“If this season had been like the previous

three, then the tipping point would either be
close or past it. The Mekong ecosystem has
resilience, it can bounce back under an
uninterrupted state. But given the impacts of
dams, and how they are affecting fish
migration and sediment distribution, the
Mekong has lost its resilience and its ability to
recover from these tough past periods. If there
would have been a fourth or the fifth low wet
season, then we get closer to that breaking
point, closer to the point of a food crisis,” said
Eyler.
Tonle Sap residents commute on the lake,

which connects more remote areas to
bigger towns and the capital Phnom Penh.
A “Beating Heart on Life Support”
Abby Seiff, an expert on the Tonle Sap, says

that the effects of hydropower, combined with
climate change and overfishing, have been
“devastating” for dependent fishing
communities. The natural flow of the river is
inhibited, and Tonle Sap’s “heartbeat” slows,
causing unpredictable effects in the wet
season. According to Eyler, “essentially the

wider it expands, the higher the levels are, the
more fish are going to come out of it, and it has
been on ‘life support’ for the last three wet
seasons.”
Like in the Mekong Delta, Seiff says the

harsher difficulties for people living around
the Tonle Sap have pushed people into
increasing desperation to search for work
further afield.
“There’s not a lot of comprehensive data, but

we know that when people can’t catch enough
fish to live off they turn to various coping
mechanisms: taking on debt, pulling kids from
school, going to work in factories or
construction sites, or taking on particularly
risky, illegal migrant work in Thailand,” she
says. “But when fishers are being pushed into
this situation, they’re typically taking on
riskier, lower-paid jobs — not things being
pursued because they represent better
opportunity but simply because there’s no
other choice.”
A fisherman secures his boat on the Tonle

Sap Lake, Cambodia. Photo by Nicholas
Muller.
“When we talk about mitigating the impacts of

what’s happening to the lake: This year there
was a major crackdown on illegal fishing – in
theory, this type of action is positive and quite

possibly what’s needed to restore fish stocks.
But in practice, it’s just depriving the poorest
of their sole livelihood source,” Seiff says.
Lake Stress, Debt Stress
Eyler says that noticeable debt stress has

become extremely high around the Tonle Sap
while catches have been lower than usual in
these last low-flow years which means that
those who rely on the Tonle Sap fishery and
income, which is millions of people along the
shoreline and in floating homes. Subsequently,
their livelihoods have become extremely
stressed, and take on more debt.
He sees there are positive indications from the

Cambodian government that they are taking a
comprehensive approach to protect the Tonle
Sap and believes the objective is for the lake
population to restore itself after three years of
stress.

“In a concerted effort to improve conditions,

the lake was closed this wet season, to the
detriment of those dependent on it. The data
that I have reflects that. There is an all-out
government effort going on to curb large-scale
fishing with rangers from the ministry of
environment, and fishery enforcement
agencies, all working together to keep illegal
fishing from happening along the lake,” he
says.
A Vietnamese fishing community sorts their

daily catch on the Tonle Sap Lake,
Cambodia. Photo by Nicholas Muller.
The effects have been felt widely among the

most desperate. “The tragedy here is that
people’s livelihoods depend on the fish caught
in that lake, and they can’t fish at the level that
they used to during this wet season. Once the
wet season passes, the closed season will be
lifted. There will be a lot of fish, but it will
likely result in a reduced fish catch this year,”
said Eyler.
To the relief of millions, the Mekong had a

significantly stronger year compared to the
previous three and the river is bouncing back.
“The [Tonle Sap] expansion is happening in
earnest, it is a little bit lower, but the data
suggests it is happening. The fishers expect it
to have a higher yield this year. Community
fisheries are increasing,” said Eyler. Now that
the wet season has drawn to an end, for the
first time in four years, seasonal flood levels
returned to a more normal state in line with
historical averages. Eyler tweeted in mid-
October: “Ladies and Gentlemen, for the first
time in four years, we’re happy to present to
you, the Mighty Mekong!” This year, the late
flood pulse peak will likely offer much-needed
relief to the Tonle Sap and its fisheries.
One of the several floating fishing villages

on the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia. Photo by
Nicholas Muller.
Increased Hope for Regional Cooperation
From a governmental perspective, Eyler sees a

reflection of urgency at the national level
among Mekong countries. “I think that
Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam are equally
alarmed about what is happening along the
river’s course and its tributaries and the
communities, but in different ways,” Eyler
says.
Eyler hopes new tools to monitor the river will

be more widely adopted across the region and
by ASEAN and there is a lot of focus on
supporting the MRC and turning it into a more
effective institution. “ASEAN shies away from
the geopolitical issues related to the Mekong
and likes to avoid controversy, but [can] only
avoid them for so long before they become
very apparent as something that needs to be
addressed,” he says.
There is also an understanding that officials

are actually using the Mekong Dam Monitor to
keep up with how dams and other things are
impacting the river. “The MDM has proven to
be a catalyst for positive change in the region,
officially endorsed in Thailand and Vietnam’s
national Mekong committees. Laos and
Cambodia have yet to do so.”
So is the MRC, which has begun to use MDM

data for public research publications and their
own planning purposes. “They’re taking the
data with their joint study with China and
therefore have a lot of leverage over the data
that China presents to them and a more level
playing field,” he says.
An aerial view of a Vietnamese floating

village on the Tonle Sap, Cambodia. Photo
by Nicholas Muller.
Baird of the University of Wisconsin-Madison

says that state interests need to be put aside
for the sake of the Mekong. “Unfortunately,
there’s been too much focus on national
interests and not enough on the basin as a
whole,” he says. “There needs to be less of a
national focus and a bigger focus on shared
issues. Those governments don’t seem to
recognize them, or those groups don’t have
enough leverage.”
Eyler sees the only viable pathway that

produces a healthier river system as one of
regional cooperation. This means scaled-up
cooperation among all parties along the
Mekong and sees Thailand, Cambodia, and
Vietnam each having somewhat national-level
interventions, even aligning to a degree, but
those interventions don’t speak to each other
and don’t coordinate.
He, along with other Mekong experts, sees

Laos as a major problem for the future of the
river system. “Many more dams could be built

and none of the dams built on the tributaries
have environmental mitigation built into them
like fish passages or sediment flushing gates,
and China’s damage is done,” says Eyler.
“You really can’t preserve the health of the

river system without smart regional
cooperation,” Eyler says. “I just don’t see it
among the downstream countries and there’s
cooperation happening between the
downstream and upstream with China that
might produce a basin-wide operation
approach, but again because of these
diametrically opposing viewpoints, how that
operations’ blueprint will be designed is
unknown. All of this is happening amid the
onslaught of climate change impacts, some of
which are starting to hit, and yet to hit, and it’s
just going to get worse.”

A fisherman examines his catch in Pakse,

Laos at the end of the day. Photo by
Nicholas Muller.
The Clock is Ticking
Zeb Hogan worries that the accelerating pace

of upstream development and dam-building,
coupled with cumulative impacts of
transboundary stressors and the impending
impacts of climate change, point to a common

concern among those who work and live in the
lower Mekong River Basin: a fear that the
river, which is the lifeblood of most of
Southeast Asia, will gradually become so
fragmented that it will lose its function, and
thus no longer support the huge diversity of
wildlife and the millions of people that depend
on it.
“More conservation action is needed. Many of

the Mekong’s most iconic species are at risk of
extinction.” Hogan’s involvement in the
discovery of a 661-pound stingray in June
“highlights both what’s at risk and what we
can do to help save the Mekong’s amazing
creatures.”
“The Mekong isn’t what it used to be. It’s

flawed, but it’s not a totally lost cause, left
there to be turned into one big dam now,” says
Baird. “But, there are still millions of people
relying on it for food and there is still a huge
amount of fish and aquatic biodiversity, there
are still amazing processes like fish
migrations occurring in this river despite all of
these things that are all causing lots of
problems.”
An aerial view of the Si Phan Don, or 4000

islands, a riverine archipelago in southern
Laos. Photo by Nicholas Muller.
Eyler says, “[the] MRC needs to bone up in its

ability to prepare for the future and not just
mitigate, but also deal with ways to

compensate and help countries adapt and
build adaptive measures into a very difficult
time to come as the resource base of the
Mekong really begins to unravel.”
He also believes those who live along the river

are very committed to preserving the
Mekong’s future. “There’s a deep love for the
river among these people. This love is
inscribed into the cultural stories and folklore
of the Mekong communities,” he told WWF.
The crucial question moving forward will be

how to safeguard the Mekong’s splendor for
the future 100 million people who will
critically depend on it in Southeast Asia.
A fisherman takes his net down the rocks by

the rapids to fish at Li Phi Falls on the
border of Laos and Cambodia. The Mekong
drops down here and is a breakoff point
from its normal flow. Photo by Nicholas
Muller.
AUTHORS
GUEST AUTHOR
Nicholas Muller
Nicholas Muller is a contributing
writer and photojournalist to The
Diplomat.
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TAGS
Features Environment Southeast Asia Cambodia Vietnam
Mekong energy Mekong River Mekong River Commission (MRC)
Mekong River dams Mekong River drought

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25/11/2022 03:13 The Precarious State of the Mekong – The Diplomat

An ethnic Vietnamese boy living with his

The author Tucker Elliot wrote in “The Rainy

“No matter the border, the Mekong has

Generations of people along the Mekong,

An aerial view of the Mekong in the Sambor

Disequilibrium in the Mekong has become the

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To make things worse, a new UNESCO report

would further degrade the Yangtze and

“Dams on the river, and changes to the natural

Other factors are exacerbating the Mekong’s

A family at sunset in Phnom Penh,

Risks are also high for lower basin countries

Lucrative sand mining and sediment removal

“Sediment is the critical building block of all

“Most communities don’t know about what is

An aerial view of sand mining of the Mekong

A Symbol of a Perilous Future

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Chun, a boatman from Kampi, Cambodia, has

Like clockwork, in large pods around his boat,

Myanmar, the remaining dolphins living there

Chun, a seasoned boatman in Kampi,

Before the pandemic, hordes of tourists would

Chun’s fish hauls have also declined. Just over

“I only catch a few fish now on a good day,”

Like his dwindling fish returns, his cherished

few dolphins I used to see regularly appear. I

Chun’s future, like the Irrawaddy dolphin, is

An Irrawaddy dolphin emerging from a

Climate Invariability, Dam Concerns

It’s been another wild and volatile summer for

Eyler says the Mekong River Commission

fluctuations, including due to climatic

Marc Goichot, WWF’s lead for freshwater in

New tools at experts’ disposal hope to make it

“With the development of the Mekong dam

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A man casts his net while standing on

Ian Baird, director of the Center for Southeast

These forests, which are a Ramsar–designated

“These dams are having a big impact

of the flooded forest in Stung Treng is so

The Khone falls in southern Laos mark the

In the Tonle Sap, “If we look at MRC data, we

Eyler is also worried about another dam on an

he believes is not being talked about enough.

If the Sekong dam is completed, Eyler predicts

A fisherman untangles his net before going

Mekong Biodiversity at a Critical Juncture

Fishing and farming have long been the

been tested. Fostering more fish species per

Dr. Zeb Hogan, a research biologist at the

As the giant catfish and the Mekong

An aerial view of a fisherman casting his net

“The concern is that the disappearance of the

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In June, Hogan’s team accomplished a historic

Despite these difficulties, Hogan tries to also

section of the Mekong: “A variety of factors

A woman sells fish in the Cambodian city of

China’s Mekong Narrative, Missing Data