Professional Documents
Culture Documents
ECONOMICS
Resource Guide
2022–2023
Table of Contents
For well over two hundred years, the field of economics we describe some of the most important themes in
has studied how human societies organize themselves economics. The second section provides a description
to transform their available resources into the goods of microeconomics. This section starts with the
and services that their members wish to consume. The model of perfectly competitive markets. Although
outlines of modern economic analysis were already the assumptions of this model apply precisely to only
apparent in Adam’s Smith’s An Inquiry into the Nature a small subset of economic activity, it is a crucial
and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, published in 1776, starting point. In the remainder of the section, we
but discussion of topics relevant to economics can be show how relaxing the assumptions of the perfectly
found even earlier in the writings of Aristotle. competitive model allows us to analyze a much broader
range of phenomena, and how this analysis in turn
At its core, economics is concerned with how leads to important insights about public policy and
individuals make choices and how these individual individual actions.
$0.50 52.5
$1.00 50
$2.00 45
$3.00 40
$4.00 35
$5.00 30
$6.00 25
$7.00 20
$8.00 15
$9.00 10
simply reduce his or her income. In much the same way, the market price. In such a market, buyers and sellers
because each buyer purchases only a small amount of know that they can buy or sell as much as they wish
gasoline compared to the total market, no one buyer can without influencing the market price.
influence the price.
While only a few markets precisely conform to
We say that a market is perfectly competitive if the the assumptions of perfect competition, many real
good or service being bought and sold is highly world markets are characterized by a high degree of
standardized, the number of buyers and sellers is large, competition and can usefully be described in terms of
and all of the participants are well informed about the perfect competition assumption. The market for
The table in Figure 1 illustrates how Steve’s purchases For example, if your community creates a new system
of gasoline each month depend on the price per gallon. of bicycle lanes that make it easier to bike from place
At $1 per gallon, Steve buys 50 gallons; when the price to place, the quantity of gasoline demanded will
rises to $2 a gallon, he cuts back to 45 gallons. If the decline at every price. As Figure 3 shows, such a
price rises further, to $3 a gallon, he cuts back to 40 change causes the market demand curve to shift to the
gallons. This table is called a demand schedule. left, indicating that at each price a lower quantity is
demanded. Let’s consider some of the most important
The graph in Figure 1 shows another way of factors affecting the quantity demanded.
representing Steve’s demand schedule. The downward-
sloping line in this graph is called Steve’s demand Income
curve. Notice that we plot the points of Steve’s Suppose Steve’s employer reduces his weekly hours
make it easier for more people to afford to own then he might cut back on his driving now in
automobiles; car ownership will increase and so will anticipation of this future change in his income.
the number of miles driven. When a lower price for
one good causes demand for another good to increase, Number of Buyers
we call those two goods complements. Market demand is derived by adding up the demands
of individual consumers. If there are more consumers,
Tastes then demand will increase. If your community is
Remember that the quantity demanded reflects a growing because people and businesses are moving
comparison of the benefits of consumption with the there, then the market demand for gasoline will be
opportunity costs of purchasing the good. If the increasing with this growing population.
perceived benefits of consumption change, then so
will the quantity demanded. For example, suppose that Supply
concerns about the environmental impacts of driving The quantity supplied of any good is the amount that
cause people to be more concerned about pollution. sellers of that good are willing and able to produce.
The likely impact will be a reduction in the demand for Many factors influence the quantity supplied, but the
gasoline. most important is the price that suppliers receive. The
higher the price is, the greater the quantity that suppliers
Expectations will want to produce. This positive relation between
Changes that you expect to occur in the future may price and quantity supplied is called the law of supply.
also affect the quantity demanded. For example, if
Steve is afraid that he may lose his job next month, The positive relationship between price and quantity
$1.50 65
$2.00 70
$2.50 75
$3.00 80
$3.50 85
$4.00 90
$4.50 95
$5.00 100
$5.50 105
$6.00 110
$6.50 115
$7.00 120
$7.50 125
$8.00 130
$8.50 135
Shelly’s Shelly’s
Supply Schedule and Supply Curve
Supply Schedule and Supply Curve
$0.50 55 + 82 = 137
$1.00 60 89 149
$1.50 65 96 161
$2.00 70 103 173
$2.50 75 110 185
$3.00 80 117 197
$3.50 85 124 209
$4.00 90 131 221
$4.50 95 138 233
$5.00 100 145 245
$5.50 105 152 257
$6.00 110 159 269
$6.50 115 166 281
$7.00 120 173 293
$7.50 125 180 305
Derivation of ofthe
Derivation Market
the Market Supply Curve
Supply Curve
able to purchase as much gasoline as they would like Under these circumstances, suppliers have an incentive
at a price of $2.50 a gallon, and suppliers can sell as to lower their price a little bit. If one station posts a
much gasoline as they would like at this price. There price of $3.90 a gallon, it will attract buyers from other
are, no doubt, buyers who complain that the price of stations, and its surplus will be reduced. But once
gasoline is too high and would like the price to be the other stations see that they are losing customers,
lower, and similarly suppliers who complain that the they will be forced to lower their prices as well. The
price is too low and would like it to be higher. pressure to cut prices and attract business will not go
away until the price has reached the equilibrium level
An important feature of market equilibrium is that of $2.50 a gallon.
the market has an automatic tendency to gravitate
toward this combination of price and quantity. Figure 7 Now suppose that the price is below the equilibrium
illustrates this point. We start (Figure 7a) by supposing price. Figure 7b illustrates this situation. At a price
that the price is higher than $2.50. At a price of $4 a of $1.50 there is an excess demand for gasoline.
gallon, for example, suppliers would like to sell 10,600 Buyers wish to purchase 11,000 gallons of gasoline,
gallons, but buyers only wish to purchase 8,500 gallons but suppliers are willing to sell only 9,600 gallons.
a month. In other words, there is an excess supply. Now there are shortages: some drivers cannot find
No one can force people to buy more gasoline than any gasoline, and others have to wait in long lines to
they want. Suppliers will find that they have too much purchase gasoline.
gasoline on hand, their storage tanks are filling up, and
they cannot unload their inventory. Buyers might be tempted to offer to pay a little bit extra
to be sure to get what they need, and sellers will see they
BUYER
BUYER WILLINGNESS
WILLINGNESS TO
TO PAY
PAY
Barb
Barb $100
$100
Bob
Bob $80
$80
Shar
Sharon
on $70
$70
Steve
Steve $50
$50
DEMAND SCHEDULE
PRICE
PRICE BUYERS
BUYERS QUANTITY
QUANTITY DEMANDED
DEMANDED
more
more than
than $100
$100 None
None 00
$80
$80 to
to $100
$100 Barb
Barb 11
$70
$70 to
to $80
$80 Barb,
Barb, Bob
Bob 22
$50
$50 to
to $70
$70 Barb,
Barb, Bob,
Bob, Sharon
Sharon 33
$50
$50 or
or less
less Barb,
Barb, Bob,
Bob, Sharon,
Sharon, and
and Steve
Steve 44
meets the efficiency criterion and maximizes total on the good in question, and the cost of producing each
surplus, let’s consider Figure 10. Suppose first that unit, and would have to determine how much should
a quantity Q1, which is less than the equilibrium be produced, by whom, and to whom it should be
quantity, was exchanged in the market. At this point, given. While such a task would be extremely difficult,
the value of the good to buyers exceeds the cost to a competitive market achieves the same result simply
sellers of supplying the good. A slight increase in the through the self-interested actions of its participants,
quantity in such a market would yield an increased responding only to the signals provided by the market
benefit to both parties. So Q1, or any other point to price.
the left of the market equilibrium, cannot be efficient.
Now, suppose that the quantity traded in the market is APPLICATIONS OF THE
Q2, an amount greater than the equilibrium quantity.
At Q2 the supply curve is above the demand curve,
COMPETITIVE MARKET MODEL
indicating that the cost to producers exceeds the Changes in Market Equilibrium
value to consumers. Such an exchange cannot be Now that we have seen how to use the concepts of
accomplished voluntarily, but if it did take place, then supply and demand to find the equilibrium price and
buyers or sellers would suffer a loss in welfare. Moving quantity in a competitive market, we can use our
to the left would raise overall well-being. market model to make predictions about how shifts
in the economy will affect the market. Let’s consider
To achieve an efficient outcome, a market planner some examples illustrating how the competitive market
would need to know the value each consumer places model can be used to analyze important issues.
One of the defining characteristics of our modern farmers to increase the quantity of milk they supply
economy is technological progress. New inventions at any price, so the supply curve for milk shifts to
are continually being developed that allow suppliers the right. As a result, the point at which supply and
to produce more at lower costs. One example is the demand intersect moves down along the demand curve
development of synthetic Bovine Growth Hormone from point A to point B. In the new equilibrium, the
(BGH), which allows dairy farmers to increase milk price is lower, and the quantity is higher.
production by between 10 and 15 percent at little
additional cost. The direct effects of this innovation It is clear that the total surplus has increased as well,
are illustrated in Figure 11. As is often the case, since the shaded area between the supply and demand
the introduction of a new technology has other, curves is now larger. Consumers are unambiguously
more subtle effects, called externalities, that are not better off as a result of the innovation. Since the market
immediately obvious from an analysis of the market price is now lower, everyone who previously purchased
that is immediately affected.3 We will discuss how to milk receives a larger surplus. In addition, at the
incorporate externalities into our analysis later in this lower price consumers purchase additional quantities
section of the resource guide. of milk. The effect on producers is more ambiguous.
The increase in sales causes an increase in producer
The first panel shows the market equilibrium before surplus, but the lower price reduces the producer
the introduction of BGH. The shaded regions indicate surplus on the quantity that was previously being sold.
the consumer and producer surplus at this equilibrium. Whether producers benefit depends on the balance of
The introduction of BGH is illustrated in the second these two effects.
panel of Figure 11. This innovation allows dairy
Effects Effects
of BGH on the Market for Milk
of BGH on the Market for Milk
Price elasticity of supply = Total revenue is the equilibrium price multiplied by the
(Percentage change in quantity supplied) / equilibrium quantity:
(Percentage change in price)
Total Revenue = P × Q
The elasticity of supply reflects the ease with which
suppliers can alter the quantity of production. We The total revenue can be depicted graphically as in
can establish some general guidelines that allow Figure 15. As the price falls, we move down along
us to identify factors that are likely to affect this the demand curve: the height of the box is reduced
responsiveness. as its width increases. If the demand is elastic, total
revenue will increase since the proportionate change in
Ease of entry and exit. If it is easy for new quantity will be greater than the proportionate increase
businesses to begin supplying a product or for in the price. But, if demand is inelastic, then total
those in the market to leave, then supply will revenue will decrease when prices fall.
tend to be more elastic. The supply of airline
flights on a particular route is quite elastic Empirical estimates suggest that the demand for milk
because airlines can easily shift planes from one is relatively inelastic. Milk is a necessity, and it does
route to another to respond to changes in prices. not have many close substitutes. As a result, declining
prices do not induce a large increase in the quantity
Scarce resources. If an input required to demanded. On the other hand, the supply of milk is
produce a good is scarce, then the supply will be relatively elastic over a time horizon of a year or more.
Effects of Effects
a Reduction in Market Demand
of a Reduction in Market Demand
(a)PERFECTLY
(a)
(b) INELASTIC DEMAND:PERFECTLY INELASTIC
INELASTIC
ELASTICITY IS LESS THAN 1 (b)INELASTIC
(b) INELASTICDEMAND:
DEMAND:ELASTICITY
ELASTICITYIS
ISLESS
LESSTHAN
THAN11
AA22%
22%
A 22% increase increase
inincrease inprice
in
price leads price andreduction
and
to a 7% nochange
no change in
inin quantity.
quantity.
quantity. AA22%
22%increase
increasein
inprice
priceleads
leadsto
toaa7%
7%reduction
reductionin
inquantity.
quantity.
1 (c)UNIT
(c) UNIT
(d) ELASTIC ELASTICELASTICITY
ELASTIC
DEMAND: DEMAND:ELASTICITY
DEMAND: ELASTICITY EQUALS
THAN 111
IS GREATEREQUALS (d)ELASTIC
(d) ELASTICDEMAND:
DEMAND:ELASTICITY
ELASTICITYIS
ISGREATER
GREATERTHAN
THAN11
At$4
ntity; if the price is above $4, they will buy At $4consumers
none, consumerswill
willbuy
buyany
anyquantity;
quantity;ififthe
theprice
priceisisabove
above$4,
$4,they
theywill
willbuy
buynone,
none,
w $4, they will buy an infinite quantity. andififthe
and theprice
priceisisbelow
below$4,
$4,they
theywill
willbuy
buyan aninfinite
infinitequantity.
quantity.
(a) PERFECTLY INELASTIC SUPPLY: ELASTICITY EQUALS 0 (b) INELASTIC SUPPLY: ELASTICITY IS LESS THAN 1
A 22% increase in price leads to no change in quantity. A 22% increase in price leads to an 11% increase in quantity.
(c) UNIT ELASTIC SUPPLY: ELASTICITY EQUALS 1 (d) ELASTIC SUPPLY: ELASTICITY IS GREATER THAN 1
Producers will supply any quantity demanded at $4; if the price is above $4,
they will supply an infinite amount; if it is below $4, they will supply zero.
Elasticity ofSupply
Elasticity of Supply
Calculation ofTotal
Calculation of Total Revenue
Revenue
based on personal characteristics they value or dislike. apartments to deteriorate, and eventually removing
As a result, apartments may no longer go to the them from the available housing stock. Meanwhile, low
individuals who value them most highly, producing a prices will attract more residents to the city. With these
further inefficiency in the market. changes, the problem of excess demand and non-market
rationing will become increasingly significant.
Historical experience points to further negative effects
of rent controls. In the short run, both the supply of To illustrate the effect of establishing a price floor,
housing in a city and the demand for housing may be let’s consider Figure 17, which shows the market for
highly inelastic. As a result, rent controls mainly lower wheat. The competitive market equilibrium price in this
the price without creating a large excess demand. But, market is $5 a bushel, and the equilibrium quantity is
over time, both supply and demand become more elastic. 100 million bushels. Suppose that in an effort to protect
Landlords will cut back on maintenance costs, allowing family farms, Congress establishes a minimum price of
The amount of this revenue is illustrated in Figure illustrated for two demand curves in Figure 19a. Figure
18d by the shaded rectangle. Initially people talked 19b depicts a similar comparison, showing how the
1 million minutes, but notice that a tax of ten cents elasticity of supply affects the division of the tax. One
per minute generates less than $100,000 ($0.10 × $1 final point that emerges from an examination of Figure
million) in revenue to the government. This is because 19 is that the less elastic the supply and demand curves
the tax has caused people to demand fewer minutes are, the smaller the effect of the tax on the equilibrium
of calling than before. As this diagram makes clear, quantity, and therefore the lower the deadweight loss of
the revenue that the government receives reduces the the tax.
combined consumer and producer surplus from these
transactions by an amount equal to the income that the INTERNATIONAL TRADE
tax produces for the government. One of the fundamental insights of economics is
that exchange makes people better off. It does so by
In our hypothetical example, suppliers paid 40 percent encouraging specialization. When individuals or
of the cost of the tax through reduced revenues, while countries specialize in the activity they do the best, the
buyers paid 60 percent of the cost of the tax through overall economic pie increases. These gains from trade
an increase in their cost per minute. In general, the are the reason that our modern economy is characterized
distribution of the burden of a tax depends on the by such a high degree of interdependence.
relative price elasticities of supply and demand. For
any given supply curve, the less elastic the demand is, To appreciate the gains achieved from trade, we need to
the greater the share of the tax paid by buyers. This is begin by considering an isolated economy. Then, we can
(a) MARKET EQUILIBRIUM FOR CELL PHONE MINUTES (b) EFFECTS OF A $0.10 TA X ON BUYERS
Representing the
Representing the Effects
Effects of a Tax of a Tax
consider how the opportunity to trade alters well-being. Robinson spends gathering coconuts is an hour that he
does not spend catching fish. The opportunity cost of
An Isolated Economy the additional coconuts that he gathers is the quantity
As a starting point, let’s consider a highly simplified of fish that he does not catch during that hour.
economy. Robinson is stranded on a tropical island.
Each day he works for eight hours to produce food, We can represent the trade-off that Robinson faces
which he consumes. He can devote his time either to in terms of a production possibility frontier or PPF
harvesting coconuts or catching fish. Each hour that like that drawn in Figure 20a. In this diagram, we
measure the quantity of coconuts Robinson gathers on
(a) E FFECTS OF
ELASTICITY OF
DEMAND ON
IMPACT OF A TAX
Effects of Elasticity
Effects on
of Elasticity on the Impact
the Impact of a Tax of a Tax
Production Possibility
Production Frontiers
Possibility Frontiers
If the law prohibiting trade is removed, this country will Economic Profits and Accounting
become an exporter, since its cost of supply is below the
Profits
world price. To simplify the analysis, we assume that
We assume a firm’s goal is to maximize profits.
the country is so small relative to the world market that
Profits are defined as the difference between the
its additional supply will not alter the world price. The
firm’s total revenue and its total costs. The meaning
equilibrium quantity will occur where the world price
of total revenue is fairly clear: it is the total quantity
intersects the country’s market supply curve.
of output the firm produces for sale multiplied by the
At PW, domestic consumers reduce their consumption. price it receives. Measuring total costs is a bit more
The difference between domestic consumption and the complicated. Economic costs include the opportunity
quantity supplied is exported. Consumer surplus falls costs of all resources required for production. In
because the price rises, and consumers purchase less contrast, accounting costs will likely include only
of the good. The value of their surplus is represented actual monetary expenditures.
by the area labeled A. Producer surplus increases,
This distinction can be seen more clearly by considering
however. It is equal to the sum of the areas marked
an example. Consider Bob’s Bread Company. Bob’s is a
B, C, and D. So, producers benefit and consumers
small bakery that sells a variety of freshly baked breads.
suffer when a country becomes an exporter. In total,
All of the baking is done in the back of the store, and
however, social welfare increases from the area
Bob operates a retail shop at the front. Suppose that
A+B+C to the area A+B+C+D, yielding a net increase
Bob sells 300 loaves of bread a day for $4 each. Total
equal to the area denoted by D.
revenues are $1,200 a day.
WelfareWelfare
EffectsEffectsof Isolation
of Isolation and Free and
Trade Free Trade
The table in Figure 23 summarizes information about By assumption, the market for bread is perfectly
Bob’s costs of production. In the second column, we competitive, meaning that the price Bob receives is not
list his fixed costs. Because these do not depend on the affected by the quantity he chooses to supply. From
quantity of bread Bob chooses to supply, they do not his perspective, the demand curve is horizontal at the
change. In the third column, we show Bob’s variable market equilibrium price of $4 a loaf. This means that
costs of production. Notice that each time we move Bob’s marginal revenue is equal to $4 regardless of the
down a row, output increases by 50 loaves a day, but quantity he chooses to supply.
the additional cost of producing those additional loaves Combining the information about Bob’s costs with
of bread increases from row to row. the information about his marginal revenue, we can
The increase in costs that occurs when producing an now find his profit maximizing output. The necessary
additional unit of output is referred to as marginal information is summarized in the bottom panel of
cost. The marginal cost is calculated by dividing the Figure 23. So long as Bob’s marginal cost of supplying
increase in total costs by the increase in the quantity an additional loaf of bread is less than $4, he can
of bread produced. This additional cost is referred to increase his profits by producing and selling that loaf.
as the marginal cost of production. For example, when Reading down the marginal cost column, we see that
Bob increases his production from 50 to 100 loaves, Bob’s marginal cost equals $4 when he is producing
his total costs increase from $358 to $483, and thus his 300 loaves of bread.
marginal cost of producing these additional loaves is So long as diminishing returns to scale apply, marginal
($483 –$358) / (100 – 50) = $2.50. As you go down the costs will be rising as the firm’s output increases. As a
rows in the top section of the table, the change in total result, the profit-maximizing firm’s supply curve will
cost is increasing, implying that marginal costs are be an upward-sloping line.
increasing as well.
Second, in addition to their role in rationing scarce The ownership of a key resource. The market
goods, prices serve a second important function: for residential electricity supply is a monopoly
they allocate productive resources between different in most communities because a single company
activities. If prices exceed production costs in some owns the retail electricity distribution system.
activity, then the existence of positive economic profits It would not be possible for a competitor to
acts as a signal that additional resources should be establish another distribution system. Another
deployed to that activity to increase production. example is the market for diamonds. Until
recently the DeBeers company owned mines
IMPERFECT COMPETITION from which 80 percent of the world’s diamonds
Now that we understand how firms behave in perfectly are produced. Because diamonds can be
competitive markets, we can begin to develop an mined in only a few places, ownership of these
understanding of how markets that are not perfectly places allows for the establishment of what is
competitive work. Although perfect competition is effectively a monopoly.
a reasonable approximation for many parts of the Government-created monopolies. Many
economy, the markets for many important products monopolies are created when the government
are dominated by a small number of very large firms. gives the rights to supply a product to a single
Examples include the markets for commercial airplanes, company. Patent and copyright laws are one
automobiles, and ride sharing services. In other cases, mechanism through which such exclusive
such as electricity, water, and cable television, there is rights are granted. If the government grants a
only a single supplier in any community. Economists patent to an inventor who has developed a new
call markets with one or only a few suppliers imperfectly technology, he or she is awarded the exclusive
competitive. right to utilize the technology for twenty years
QUANTITY FIXED COST + VARIABLE COST = TOTAL COST CHANGE IN TOTAL COST
in exchange for revealing the details of his/ provider Local Media. The table in Figure 24 shows
her innovation. Under copyright law, an author the demand for cable television service is negatively
becomes a monopolist over the book he or she related to the price of a monthly subscription. At a
has written. price of $20, no one will purchase the service, but
Natural monopolies. An industry is a natural when the price falls to $19 a month, 100 households
monopoly when a single firm can supply the will subscribe. As the price falls further, demand
market at a lower cost than could two or more increases. Local Media can choose to supply at any
firms. This happens when there are large fixed combination of price and quantity along the demand
costs that cause the firm’s average costs to be curve. Its total revenue at that point is equal to the
falling at a scale of production that can serve price times the quantity.
the entire market. Railroads, pipelines, and What happens to the company’s revenues as it selects
cable television are all examples of markets different points along the demand curve? For example,
that are prone to natural monopoly. consider moving from point A in the graph in Figure
Monopoly Supply 24, where price equals $16 and the quantity is 400,
To illustrate the supply decision of a monopolist, let’s to point B where the price is $15. The additional
consider the example of the market for cable television subscribers generate more revenue, but to achieve this,
services in Smallville, which is served by a single the company must lower its price to existing subscribers.
20 0 $0
19 1 $1,900 19
18 2 $3,600 17
17 3 $5,100 15
16 4 $6,400 13
15 5 $7,500 11
14 6 $8,400 9
13 7 $9,100 7
12 8 $9,600 5
11 9 $9,900 3
10 10 $10,000 1
9 11 $9,900 –1
8 12 $9,600 –3
7 13 $9,100 –5
DemandDemand
andand
Marginal Revenue
Marginal Revenue of a Monopoly
of a Monopoly
The EffectThe
ofEffect
External Benefits
of External Benefits in the
in the Market Market for Honey
for Honey
1 130 30 75 105
2 120 40 60 100
3 115 45 45 90
4 110 40 30 70
5 105 25 15 40
6 100 0 0 0
1 30
When Some
WhenResources
Some Resources AreAre NotProperty
Not Private Private Property
When the villagers make their choices independently, Suppose that in the previous example we allow for one
they fail to account for the external effects of their of the villagers to purchase the lake. The owner can
fishing on the income of other boat owners. Because then decide how many boats to allow on the lake. We
the fish in the lake are a common resource, one have seen that the most profitable choice is to allow a
villager’s decision to purchase a boat and catch fish single boat on the lake, which generates an income of
reduces the income that others can earn from fishing. $30. So, if the lake is privately owned, resources will
The villagers do better when they decide collectively be allocated in the most efficient manner.
because they internalize the externality.
How much would one of the villagers be willing to
The Effects of Private Ownership pay to purchase the lake? Since the opportunity cost
The example we have just considered is a version of of investing in the boat is the $15 forgone interest, the
a problem that is often referred to as the tragedy of owner of the lake would earn $15 profit if he or she
the commons. When a resource is owned jointly, no could use the lake for free. The most one of the villagers
one takes account of the negative externalities caused would be willing to pay to purchase the lake is $100.
by overuse. We have seen in the previous section that At this price, the purchase of the lake yields the same
taxes or other regulations can ameliorate the effects return as buying a government bond. If the villagers
of externalities. But a simpler solution is to create invest the $100 paid by the purchaser in a government
property rights in the resource. bond, then they can divide the additional income that it
generates, thus raising all of their incomes.
EXTENT OF
EXCLUDABILITY HIGH LOW
Four Types
Four Typesof Goods
of Goods
$20,000,000
$18,000,000
$16,000,000
$14,000,000
$12,000,000
$10,000,000
$8,000,000
$6,000,000
$4,000,000
$0
1900
1904
1908
1912
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
SOURCE: Louis Johnston and Samuel H. Williamson, “What Was the U.S. GDP Then?” MeasuringWorth, 2020
URL: http://www.measuringworth.org/usgdp/. All values expressed in 2012 prices.
impact of these events is dwarfed by the expansion of While average output per capita provides an indication
the size of the overall economy. of what the typical person can consume, economists
are also interested in changes in what the average
At the level of the overall economy, what we can person can produce. The economy’s total output
consume is limited by what we produce. One reason divided by the total number of workers employed is
for the rising level of production historically has been called average labor productivity. This is a measure
the growth in population. More people can produce of how much the typical worker can produce. The
more output. But output has grown much faster than second (higher) line in Figure 31 shows the history of
population. Since 1900, the U.S. population has average labor productivity since 1900.
increased by a factor of more than four. Combining
this information with the data in Figure 30 implies the The average output per person in the U.S. economy
average output per person has increased by a factor in 2019 was over $65,000. To put this figure in
of nearly eight. Figure 31 illustrates the growth of perspective, Figure 32 compares total output and
output per person. Economists refer to this quantity output per person in the United States to a selection
as output (GDP) per capita. The term “per capita” is of other countries around the world. The range of
a Latin phrase literally meaning “per head,” which is variation in production per person is remarkably large.
commonly used to denote averages calculated for an Despite having a population nearly five times as large
entire population. as the United States, China’s total production is only
----
----
$120,000
----
---- $100,000
----
---- $80,000
----
$60,000
----
---- $40,000
----
---- $20,000
----
----
$0
1900
1906
1912
1918
1924
1930
1936
1942
1948
1954
1960
1966
1972
1978
1984
1990
1996
2002
2008
2014
GDP GDP per capita
Billions of $ Index (USA=100) $ Index (USA=100)
United States 21,427.7 100.0 65,280.7 100.0
Germany 3,845.6 17.9 46,258.9 70.9
United Kingdom 2,827.1 13.2 42,300.3 64.8
France 2,715.5 12.7 40,493.9 62.0
Japan 5,081.8 23.7 40,246.9 61.7
South Korea 1,642.4 7.7 31,762.0 48.7
Russia 1,699.9 7.9 11,585.0 17.7
China 14,342.9 66.9 10,261.7 15.7
Mexico 1,258.3 5.9 9,863.1 15.1
Brazil 1,839.8 8.6 8,717.2 13.4
Egypt 303.2 1.4 3,020.0 4.6
Nigeria 448.1 2.1 2,229.9 3.4
Ghana 67.0 0.3 2,202.1 3.4
India 2,875.1 13.4 2,104.1 3.2
the Great Depression. Figure 35 illustrates two other choices within markets. When the price of a particular
important points about the unemployment rate. good—say a gallon of gasoline—rises, this increase
signals consumers to reduce their consumption and
First, the unemployment rate is never zero. There creates incentives for suppliers to increase production.
are always some people searching for work. This When all prices rise together, economists call this
reflects the continual entry of new job-seekers into inflation. Because inflation means that all the things
the labor market as well as the shifting fortunes of people consume are becoming more expensive,
different industries, regions, and businesses within inflation reduces purchasing power and makes people
the economy. Even in expansions, some companies worse off. We will see that inflation imposes other
are closing, while others are growing. Even during the economic costs as well. So, keeping inflation low is
Great Depression, when many employers were laying another important goal of macroeconomic policy.
off workers, others were expanding their workforce.
Second, despite the huge changes that have taken place Figure 36 shows the U.S. inflation rate since 1900. As
in the economy since 1900, there is no indication that this figure makes clear, the rate of inflation has varied
the unemployment rate is increasing in the long term. considerably over time. Prices generally increase over
time, but there have been some periods during which
Inflation the price level fell. Most notably, this occurred during
We have seen that the prices of individual goods and the Great Depression, but we also saw the price level
services play a central role in coordinating individual fall during the 2008 financial crisis.
FIGURE 34
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1900
1903
1906
1909
1912
1915
1918
1921
1924
1927
1930
1933
1936
1939
1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
‐5.0%
‐15.0%
International Trade imported. Since the 1970s, the relationship has shifted,
National economies are linked to one another through and imports are greater than exports.
international trade. Because of its size, the United
States is relatively less dependent on trade than many MACROECONOMIC MEASUREMENT
other, smaller countries. While international trade In our description of the behavior of the U.S. economy
has generally increased since the 1950s, the level of in the previous section, we made use of concepts like
exports and imports as a share of GDP has fallen over the total national output, inflation, and unemployment.
the past few years in the United States. Constructing measures that capture the overall
behavior of the national economy involves aggregation.
Figure 37 plots the volume of exports from the United Aggregation is the combination of many different things
States to other countries and the volume of imports to into a single economic variable. Well-constructed
the United States since 1929 as a percentage of total economic aggregates help us to see the big picture, but
output. When exports exceed imports, economists at the cost of obscuring important details.
say that a country is running a trade surplus. When
exports are less than imports, they say that a country is Developing appropriate economic aggregates is
running a trade deficit. an important branch of macroeconomics, and
understanding the choices that go into the construction
In the long run, the levels of imports and exports of these aggregates is important if we are to fully
appear to move in similar ways. But there have been understand what their behavior tells us about the
shifts in their relative levels. Up until the late 1950s, economy. In this section, we will describe in more
the United States generally exported more than it
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
detail how the most important macroeconomic question is called Gross Domestic Product (or GDP).
variables are defined, and we will discuss the Formally, GDP is defined as: “the market value of all
significance of these definitions. final goods and services produced within a country
during a specified period of time.” This definition is
Measuring Total Output: Gross short, but there are several important points to note
Domestic Product about it.
Earlier we presented data showing the growth of the total
output of the U.S. economy. But, how can we measure the Market Value
total output of an economy? How do we add up haircuts, To combine all the different types of things that a
personal computers, fast food hamburgers, financial country produces, we use their dollar value to add
advice, automobiles, and the myriad other goods and them up. Suppose, for example, that an economy
services produced by an economy? produced only two goods: t-shirts and shorts, and
that t-shirts sell for $5 each, while shorts sell for $10.
The answer that economists have developed to this If the economy produced 100 t-shirts and 25 pairs of
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1900
1904
1908
1912
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
‐10.0%
‐15.0%
shorts, then its GDP would be 100 × $5 + 25 × $10 the automobile is the end product of this chain of
= $750. Because of the use of market prices, higher- purchases, we count only its value in GDP and exclude
priced goods contribute more to total GDP. Recall the purchase of inputs that are used up to produce the
from our discussion of microeconomics that market car. Goods that are used up in the production of a final
prices reflect the value that the marginal consumer good are called intermediate goods.
places on the good. So, goods that have higher prices
have a higher value to consumers and therefore should Excluding intermediate goods from GDP insures that
contribute more to total output. our measure of GDP is not affected by the extent of
vertical integration in the economy. This is important
Final Goods and Services to avoid the possibility of double counting the value
Most of the products we consume are the result of a of some goods. To see this, consider the following
complex chain of production activities. For example, alternative scenarios. First, suppose a steel producer
automakers purchase steel from refiners, who in turn sells $200,000 worth of steel to an auto manufacturer,
purchase iron ore from a mining company. Because and the auto manufacturer converts the steel into
FIGURE 37
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
0.0%
1929
1932
1935
1938
1941
1944
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
Exports Imports
SOURCE: Irwin, Douglas A., “Exports and Imports of Goods and Services: 1929–2019.” Table Ee376-384 in Historical Statistics of the United
States, Earliest Times to the Present: Millennial Edition, edited by Susan B. Carter, Scott Sigmund Gartner, Michael R. Haines, Alan L. Olmstead,
Richard Sutch, and Gavin Wright. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/ISBN-9780511132971.Ee362-611.
$1 million worth of automobiles. The steel is an produces $200 worth of tomatoes. She sells $100
intermediate good because it is used to produce the worth at a local farmers market and uses the other
automobiles. Now, suppose the automaker produces its $100 worth to make tomato sauce, which she sells
own steel and sells $1 million worth of automobiles. for $200. Sylvia’s contribution to GDP is $300—the
Notice that in both cases the value of the steel is result of adding the $100 worth of tomatoes she sells to
included in the value of the automobiles. By excluding consumers and the $200 worth of tomato sauce. We do
the transaction involving the intermediate good, we not count directly the $100 worth of tomatoes used to
arrive at the same contribution to GDP regardless of produce the sauce, but it is reflected in the value of the
the pattern of industry ownership. final product that it is used to produce.
Some goods can be either final goods or intermediate Capital goods do not fit easily into either of the
goods. In this case, we only count that portion of categories we have discussed so far. Capital goods are
production that is sold to final users. As an example, long-lived goods that are themselves produced and are
suppose Sylvia raises tomatoes. In one year, she used to produce other goods and services but are not
Because the lack of comprehensive data on national Other Ways to Measure GDP:
economic activity was hampering efforts to respond to
the Great Depression, in 1932 the U.S. Department of
Expenditures Equal Production
GDP is a measure of the quantity of goods and services
Commerce commissioned the economist Simon Kuznets
produced in a country. But, since goods that are
to develop a system to measure national output. Kuznets
produced are also purchased, we can also think of GDP
presented his system in a report to the U.S. Senate
as a measure of the total value of expenditures within
in 1934. The U.S. entry into the Second World War
a country. Economists divide purchasers into four
provided an additional impetus for perfecting techniques
categories: households, firms, government, and the is somewhat different from the word’s use in ordinary
CPI Calculation
PANTS T-SHIRTS SHOES CONSUMPTION BUNDLE
PRICE COST PRICE COST PRICE COST COST INDEX (2014=100)
2014 10 20 5 15 25 25 60 100.0
2015 10 20 7 21 30 30 71 118.3
2016 11 22 7 21 35 35 78 130.0
2017 12 24 8 24 50 50 98 163.3
Figure 39 illustrates this calculation for an economy in contracts include cost-of-living adjustment provisions
which the consumption bundle consists of three items: that tie wage increases to the CPI. More informally,
pants, t-shirts, and shoes. We see that the quantity employers and employees take into account changes in
consumed each month is two pairs of pants, three the CPI when considering adjustments in wage rates.
t-shirts, and one pair of shoes. Using 2015 as the base
year, we set the cost of the bundle in this year equal The goal of the CPI is to measure how changes in prices
to 100, and calculate the CPI in the other years using affect the ability of households to maintain the level of
the following formula: CPI in year t = 100 × (cost of well-being they enjoyed in the base year. What the CPI
bundle in year t)/(cost of bundle in base year). actually measures, however, is how changes in prices
affect the cost of a fixed bundle of goods and services.
Notice that the quantities of each item in the bundle This difference means that the CPI will typically
determine the impact of that item’s price changes on overstate the true increase in the cost of living. This
the overall index. Because consumers purchase three upward bias in the CPI arises for three reasons.
t-shirts and only one pair of shoes, a change in the price
of t-shirts will cause a larger change in the CPI than will The first factor causing the CPI to overstate the effect
an equivalent dollar increase in the price of shoes. of rising prices on the cost of living is substitution
bias. As relative prices change, households will shift
The CPI is of considerable practical importance in our their consumption away from more expensive goods
economy. Each year, Social Security benefit payments and services and toward less expensive ones. When
are adjusted to reflect changes in the cost of living as the price of beef increases, for example, families will
reflected in the CPI. Similarly many union employment consume more chicken; when airline ticket prices
278
307 0
326
337
GDP Deflator (1960=100) CPI (1960=100)
351
364 SOURCE: Federal Reserve Economic Data, Economic Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org.
371
Comparison of CPI and GDP Deflator, 1960–2019 (1960=100).
384
400
419
442 the United States, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Together these three categories comprise the
460 is responsible for measuring the unemployment rate. working-age population. The sum of the employed
474 To do this each month, the BLS surveys approximately and unemployed constitutes the labor force, and
488 60,000 households. Based on a series of questions, the unemployment rate is the quantity of people
501 interviewers classify every person age sixteen or older unemployed expressed as a percentage of the labor
515
in the household into one of three categories: force.
530 Employed. If that person worked for pay either Figure 41 shows data on the U.S. labor force collected
543 full- or part-time during the previous week or by the BLS in July 2020. The table shows that there
is on vacation or sick leave from a regular job. are approximately 260 million working-age persons in
Unemployed. If that person did not work during the United States. Of these, almost 160 million are in
the previous week but made some effort to find the labor force. The ratio of those in the labor force to
paid employment during the past four weeks. the working-age population is called the labor force
participation rate, which is about 61.4 percent. Of
Out of the labor force. If that person did not those in the labor force, about 143.5 million had jobs
work during the past week and did not actively while 16.3 million were unemployed, resulting in an
seek work during the previous four weeks. unemployment rate of 10.2 percent. Just one year earlier,
Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted, July 2020
the unemployment rate was only 3.4 percent, so this from new workers entering the labor force for the first
significant increase in the fraction of the labor force time. Frictional unemployment refers to the portion of
that is unemployed reflects the significant economic the unemployed who are currently not working because
damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Note that of the normal process of matching employees and
the unemployment rate is highest among the teenage employers.
population, and it varies by race, ethnicity, and gender.
Structural Unemployment
There are many reasons why some people are Sometimes the jobs that are available require different
unemployed. Economists divide these reasons into skills or characteristics from those possessed by the
three broad categories. workers who are seeking employment. The locations
of job-seekers and vacancies may also be different,
Frictional Unemployment preventing those seeking employment from filling the
The U.S. economy is remarkably dynamic. Every available positions. That portion of total unemployment
month several million workers leave their jobs either attributable to the mismatch between job openings
voluntarily (i.e., they quit) or involuntarily (i.e., they get and job-seekers is called structural unemployment.
laid-off), and several million more are hired. Because In the 1980s, for example, the U.S. steel industry
job-searching takes time, many of these workers was contracting while the computer industry was
show up as unemployed for brief periods of time. An expanding. Not only were laid-off steel workers located
additional source of frictional unemployment comes in the industrial northeast far from expanding Sunbelt
financial markets. It uses these sources of income to services that firms are able to produce. This in
purchase goods and services. turn depends on the quantity of factor inputs that
households are able to supply to the firms and the
The final flow of funds illustrated in this diagram is ability of the firms to transform these inputs into the
from financial markets to the market for goods and outputs that households and the government choose to
services. This flow represents borrowing by both purchase. Larger economies will produce more (other
households and firms, which is used to purchase things being equal) than smaller economies. But, this
consumer durable goods and capital equipment. source of variation cannot account for differences in
GDP per capita.
What Determines How Much an
Economy Produces? To explain differences in GDP per capita, it is helpful
As the circular flow model emphasizes, an economy’s to note that real GDP per capita is equal to real GDP
output depends on the total quantity of goods and per worker multiplied by the fraction of the population
140,000
120,000
100,000
GDP Per Capita
80,000
60,000
40,000
‐
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Average Labor Productivity (GDP per hour worked)
Relationship Between GDP per Capita and Average Labor Productivity, 2019
employed. Let POP stand for the country’s population, of differences in average labor productivity. In the
and N stand for the labor force. Then, we can express United States, labor force participation rates have
this relationship in the following equation: increased modestly in the last century as more women
GDP GDP N have entered the labor force and as lower birth rates
POP = N × POP have reduced the share of children in the population
and consequently increased the relative size of the
The left-hand side of this equation is just real GDP per working-age population. These trends have, however,
capita. By cancelling out N in the two fractions on the been offset by earlier retirement and longer education.
right-hand side, you can see that the right-hand side As a result, virtually all of the increase in output
reduces to GDP per capita as well, so this relationship per person in the economy is explained by increased
is always true. What this expression tells us is that average labor productivity. Figure 43 shows that there
the average quantity of goods and services available is also a strong positive association between labor
for each person to consume depends on the average productivity and real GDP per capita across countries.
amount that each worker can produce, or average labor
productivity, and the proportion of the population that Average labor productivity depends on a number of
is engaged in production. different factors. The most prominent of these are the
following:
Most of the variation in GDP per capita occurs because
In an open economy, savings can differ from investment, Of course, if prices are rising, the same bundle of
but only to the extent that the difference is offset by goods becomes more expensive next year, so what
net capital outflows. If foreigners are willing to lend to matters is the real interest rate, which is the nominal
domestic citizens (so NCO is negative), then investment rate minus the rate of inflation. If prices increase 10
can be larger than savings. Of course, foreigners percent per year, then it will take $110 next year to
make such loans with the expectation that they will be purchase a bundle of goods that costs $100 today. In
repaid at some point in the future. So, eventually the this case, the real interest rate will be zero, indicating
situation will likely be reversed, with saving exceeding that the saver receives no increase in purchasing power
investment to produce positive capital outflows. from postponing his or her consumption.
The higher the real interest rate is, the greater the
rewards for being patient, and the greater the amount there are strong pressures on the real interest rate
that people will choose to save. As a result, the supply that cause it to adjust to equilibrate the market. At an
of savings is drawn as an upward-sloping line in interest rate below the equilibrium level, borrowers
Figure 44. would not be able to find enough savers willing to lend
them funds, and competition to obtain the available
Businesses invest because they anticipate that the funds would drive up the real interest rate. At an
additional capital equipment they are acquiring will interest rate above the equilibrium, there would be
raise their revenues in the future. The price of making an excess supply of funds, and competition between
these investments is the real interest rate. So long as lenders to find borrowers willing to take their funds
businesses expect that the additional revenues they will would cause the real interest rate to fall.
receive will exceed the cost of borrowing the funds,
businesses will be willing to borrow. The lower the Now that we have seen how the financial market
real interest rate is, the larger the number of investment determines the real interest rate and the quantity of
projects that businesses will find profitable to pursue. saving and investment, we are in a position to consider
As a result, the demand curve for savings is drawn as how various events affect this equilibrium. Figure
downward sloping. 45 illustrates three possible changes in the market
equilibrium. Panel (a) depicts the effects of a new
In the same way that competitive forces move prices technology that raises the productivity of capital. As a
in other markets toward the market equilibrium level, result, the demand for funds schedule shifts out to the
M1 $5,209.90
Currency $1,855.90
Demand (Checking) Deposits $2,211.70
Other Checkable Deposits $1,142.30
M2 $18,166.80
M1 $5,209.90
Savings Deposits $11,391.80
Small Denomination Time Deposits $428.40
Retail Money Funds $1,136.70
Note: Outstanding amount of U.S. dollar-denominated traveler’s checks of nonbank issuers. Publication of new data for this item was discontinued
in January 2019. Traveler’s checks issued by depository institutions are included in demand deposits.
SOURCE: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/default.htm.
ASSETS LIABILITIES
side the bank still has $100 in liabilities, but now its loaned will find their way back to the bank as additional
assets consist of $20 in reserves and $80 in loans. Once deposits. And, the cycle of loans and money creation
again, assets and liabilities exactly balance. will continue until the total deposits equal $500, and
the bank has $100 in reserves and $400 in loans. At
Notice, however, what has happened to the money this point, the bank cannot make any additional loans
supply. The bank’s depositors have $100 in deposits, without falling below its twenty percent reserve ratio.
and its borrowers have $80 in currency. The money
supply has grown to $180. By holding only a fraction The amount of money the banking sector creates from
of deposits as reserves, the bank is able, in effect, to each dollar of reserves is called the money multiplier.
create money. This may seem to be too good to be true. The money multiplier is the reciprocal of the reserve
But, it is important to understand that while the bank ratio. If R is the reserve ratio, then each dollar of
Panel (a)
ASSETS LIABILITIES
Panel (b)
ASSETS LIABILITIES
Panel (c)
ASSETS LIABILITIES
In addition to open market operations, the Federal fractional reserves occurs when the public suddenly
Reserve has several other tools it can use to influence decides that it wants to hold substantially more
the supply of money in the economy. The Fed has the currency than it has been holding. Since banks have
power to set reserve requirements for commercial reserves equal to only a fraction of their liabilities,
banks. Banks can, of course, choose to hold reserves they will not be able to pay all their depositors. If
beyond this requirement, but manipulation of required depositors begin to fear that they may not be able to
reserves is nonetheless a powerful lever. Because it is withdraw their deposits, they will hurry to the bank to
disruptive to the business of banking, however, the Fed get their deposits ahead of other depositors.
only rarely makes changes in reserve requirements.
Such a rush of withdrawals is called a bank run. Even
The third tool available to the Fed is the discount if a bank is solvent, meaning that its assets exceed its
rate, which is the interest rate that the Federal Reserve liabilities, it will not have enough cash on hand to meet
charges on loans that it makes to banks. Although all of the demand, and it will be forced to shut its doors
banks rarely borrow directly from the Federal until loans are repaid or it can borrow additional funds
Reserve because such borrowing suggests they may or sell assets. When a solvent bank experiences a spike
be in financial difficulty, the discount rate is closely in demand, it is the Fed’s responsibility to act as lender
linked to the federal funds rate, which is the rate of last resort to prevent disruptions to the banking
charged by banks when they lend reserves to other system.
banks. A higher discount rate discourages banks from
borrowing reserves. Thus, raising the discount rate Today bank runs are very infrequent, but in the past
helps to reduce the quantity of borrowed reserves and they were a significant source of financial disruption.
therefore reduces the supply of money.
Money and Inflation in the Long Run
Bank Runs Earlier we discussed how economists measure
One problem that can arise in a system based on inflation. Figure 40 showed how the cost of living has
Equilibrium in inthe
Equilibrium Market
the Market for Money for Money
93.8
94.1 4,000.0
96.8
3,500.0
95.8
96.8
3,000.0
98.6
100.1
2,500.0
96.9
94.7
2,000.0
96.1
98.4 1,500.0
98.1
96.7 1,000.0
95.6
102.1
SOURCES: GDP: Louis Johnston and Samuel H. Williamson, “What Was the U.S. GDP Then?” MeasuringWorth, 2020,
100.7 URL: http://www.measuringworth.org/usgdp/.
98.4 M2 1960–99: Anderson, Richard G., “Federal Reserve Board monetary aggregates and major components: 1959–1999.” Table Cj84-99 in
Historical Statistics of the United States, Earliest Times to the Present: Millennial Edition, edited by Susan B. Carter, Scott Sigmund Gartner,
97.9 Michael R. Haines, Alan L. Olmstead, Richard Sutch, and Gavin Wright. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006.
100.2 M2 2000–2019: Federal Reserve Economic Data / Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org.
103.6 Velocity: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Velocity of M2 Money Stock [M2V], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V, August 12, 2020.
103.8
103.4 Nominal GDP, Money Stock, and Velocity, 1960–2019
107.4
111.8
First, although inflation does not alter relative prices, Because firms will not all adjust their prices at the
117.4
it does reduce the value of money. In effect, inflation same time, relative prices will not always accurately
120.5
is a tax on people who hold money. As prices rise, reflect the relative costs of production. Recall that these
121.5
the value of the currency people have in their wallets prices play an important role in coordinating economic
122.9
declines relative to the goods and services they want decisions in market economies. Because of these
121.2
to purchase. As a result, people will reduce the amount distortions, the information conveyed by market prices
119.9
of money they hold. This means they have to go to becomes less valuable.
120.3
the bank or ATM more frequently, which imposes an
114.4 Third, inflation introduces confusion about the true
inconvenience. Inflation also imposes a cost on firms
110.0 value of goods and services in the future. Remember
because firms have to adjust the prices of their products
107.7 that when someone with savings lends it, they are
more frequently, and this can be a costly process.
109.6 compensated by an interest payment for postponing
112.1 Second, inflation introduces distortions into pricing. their use of that money until a future date. But, if they
112.9
111.3
106.2 2022–2023 Economics Resource Guide
96.4 95
97.6
cannot accurately forecast the rate of inflation, they cycles have been a characteristic of industrial societies
cannot calculate how much purchasing power they since at least the late eighteenth century. The table in
will have in the future. Uncertainty about the rate of Figure 51 shows the dates and duration of U.S. business
inflation adds to the risks that both borrowers and cycles. A commonly used rule of thumb is that periods
lenders face in credit markets, and this increased risk when real GDP declines for two consecutive quarters
reduces both the supply of savings and the demand for are recessions. The determination of the dates on which
investment. Because investment is crucial to economic recessions and expansions begin and end is performed
growth, inflation reduces economic growth. by the NBER, a non-profit organization of economists
that has been a major source of research on short-term
SHORT–RUN ECONOMIC fluctuations in the economy. The NBER considers a
broad array of different economic indicators in fixing
FLUCTUATIONS the dates listed in Figure 51.
We noted earlier that macroeconomics is concerned
with two issues: the long-term growth of the Looking at the data in Figure 51, the longest and deepest
aggregate economy and short-term fluctuations. In the period of recession is the 43-month decline that began in
preceding sections, we have developed a framework August 1929, which has come to be known as the Great
for understanding the forces that determine the long- Depression. During this episode, the nation’s real GDP
run performance of national economies. This theory fell by more than one-quarter. Since the Second World
provides a useful description of how the economy War, periods of recession have tended to be relatively
evolves over long periods of time of several decades short, with only three stretching longer than twelve
or more. But, it does not provide much guidance for months, and relatively mild in terms of the decline in
understanding the shorter-run deviations of economic real GDP. Expansions have tended to be much longer
growth from these long-run trends.
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate [UNRATE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE, August 13, 2020.
to the business cycle. Periods of expansion are often potential output is not fixed, of course, but increases
characterized by accelerating inflation, and recessions over time as technology improves, and the economy
typically are linked to a slowing in the rate of inflation. accumulates additional resources.
Figure 53 graphs the rate of inflation since 1960.
Between 1960 and 1979, there was a generally upward In the subsequent discussion, we will use the variable
trend in the rate of inflation, which makes the business Y* to denote potential output. The output gap consists
cycle effect somewhat difficult to see. But, if you of the difference between actual output, which we’ll
look closely, you can see that the rate of inflation was denote by Y, and potential output. In other words,
declining during recessions. the output gap = Y – Y*. Figure 54 plots the growth
of actual output in the postwar period along with the
Potential Output, the Output Gap, and trend growth of output between successive business
cycle peaks, which approximates the growth of
the Natural Rate of Unemployment potential output. Relative to the trend growth of
In thinking about the short-run performance of the output, deviations appear small in this figure, but they
economy, it is useful to think of the actual level nonetheless result in significant economic hardships.
of GDP at any time as consisting of two parts: the
potential output of the economy and an output gap. When output is below potential output, the economy’s
Potential output is the quantity of goods and services productive resources are not being completely utilized.
that the economy can produce when using its resources In particular, unemployment rises when the economy
(such as capital and labor) at normal rates. The level of is below its potential output. Recall that unemployment
15.0%
13.0%
11.0%
9.0%
7.0%
5.0%
3.0%
is conventionally divided into frictional, structural, In the early 1960s, Arthur Okun, who was one of
and cyclical components. The cyclical component is President Kennedy’s chief economic advisors at the
the part that rises when the economy is in a recession. time, noted that there was a relationship between the
Economists call the level of unemployment due to output gap and the level of cyclical unemployment.
frictional and structural causes the natural rate of Specifically, he observed that every one percent that
unemployment. It is the level of unemployment that the unemployment rate differed from the natural rate
would exist when the actual output is equal to potential was associated with a two percent deviation in the
output. output gap. In other words, if cyclical unemployment
increased from 1 percent to 2 percent, then the output
The natural rate of unemployment varies over time gap would rise from 2 percent to 4 percent. This
due to changes in the labor market. During the 1970s relationship is called Okun’s Law.
and 1980s, the entry of many more women into
the paid labor force helped to raise the natural rate Explaining Short-Run Fluctuations in
of unemployment, as did the decline of traditional
manufacturing industries and the growth of the Output
service sector. More recently, the natural rate of What explains the recurrent alternation between
unemployment has fallen. periods of expansion and recession in the aggregate
d FIGURE 54
4 $20,000,000
4
4 $18,000,000
4
6
9 $16,000,000
3
1
$14,000,000
1
7
3 $12,000,000
7
5
$10,000,000
0
6
5 $8,000,000
8
4
$6,000,000
7
Consumption (C) is spending by households on According to Keynesian theory, the causes of short-
final goods and services. run fluctuations in the level of economic activity can
Investment (I) is spending by firms on new be summarized in terms of the interaction between an
capital goods, such as machinery and structures, aggregate demand (AD) curve and a short-run aggregate
as well as spending on the construction of new supply (ASSR) curve, as is illustrated in Figure 55. In
houses and apartment buildings. In addition, addition to the short-run aggregate supply curve, the
increases in inventories are also included in diagram also includes a long-run aggregate supply
curve, which is drawn as a vertical line at the point
to purchase. Over time firms adjust their prices in curve is changes in the expected price level. Since
response to the gap between actual and anticipated ASSR is equal to Y* at the expected aggregate price
sales. The aggregate supply curve slopes upward to level, an increase in the expected price level will cause
reflect the relationship between this price adjustment the aggregate supply curve to shift upward. A decrease
process and the size of unanticipated sales. in the expected price level will cause the aggregate
supply curve to shift downward.
The position of the aggregate supply curve depends
on the economy’s long-run potential output and on The second cause of shifts in the aggregate supply curve
what people expect the aggregate price level to be. The is aggregate supply shocks. For example, weather and
short-run aggregate supply curve will pass through the climate conditions that affect agricultural production
vertical line at Y* at a price level equal to the prevailing may shift the aggregate supply curve. An especially
expectation about aggregate prices. Resources will be good harvest means that more agricultural commodities
fully employed, and aggregate supply will equal its are available at every price, an event that would cause
long-run potential output, Y* in our earlier discussion, the aggregate supply curve to shift rightward. An
when the aggregate price level is equal to the level that important example of a shock to aggregate supply in
firms and consumers anticipated. recent history is the OPEC-initiated oil embargo that
began in 1973. Because of the importance of fossil
Thus, there are two reasons for the short-run aggregate fuels as a source of power throughout the economy, the
supply curve to shift. The first and most common shortage of imported oil had a widespread effect on the
cause of shifts in the position of the aggregate supply U.S. economy, causing a reduction in quantities supplied
Inflation in the Keynesian Model To begin with, we need to ask why an economy would
The model of recessions and expansions we have experience persistent inflation. The quantity equation
sketched so far has assumed that the level of inflation implies that in the long run, the aggregate price level
in the economy is zero. That is, we have drawn the can rise only if the money supply is growing faster than
AD and ASSR curves on the assumption that everyone the economy’s potential output. Suppose, for example,
believes the aggregate price level is stable. We have that because of technological change, potential output
seen, however, that since the Second World War the increases 2 percent per year, and the stock of money
aggregate price level has followed a generally upward increases at 5 percent per year. The quantity equation
trend. Moreover, as the previous section demonstrated, can be rearranged to show the price level must equal (M
the process of adjustment by which the economy × V)/Y*. So long as velocity is constant, prices will rise
returns to full employment after a shock involves at 3 percent (= 5% – 2%) each year.
changes in the price level.
This system of indentured servitude had been In the New England and Mid-Atlantic regions, economic
introduced by the Virginia Company in 1619. Since activity was mostly limited to smaller farms that grew
the cost of travel from England to the North American grains and raised livestock. Here we see relatively
colonies was very high (about half of the typical limited export activity, certainly in comparison to the
person’s annual income), most people could not afford significant exports of tobacco and rice from the southern
The Constitution
The limitations of the Article of Confederation were
and Market Expansion Once these areas had been surveyed, the question of
how to allocate them to settlers remained. The Land
Land Distribution Policies Ordinances of 1785 and 1787 established how this was
Another pressing issue for the new country was what
to be done, and the main objective was to generate
to do with all its land. Part of the Treaty of Paris,
revenue for the federal government through land sales.
which ended the Revolutionary War, granted new
As Walton and Rockoff explain, “All sales at public
territory to the original thirteen colonies. As of 1783,
auction were to be for a minimum price of $1 per acre
the western border of the United States had shifted all
in cash. Thus, the smallest possible cash outlay was
the way to the Mississippi River. This new land was
the $640 necessary to buy a section—an expenditure
in the public domain, which meant that it was owned
beyond the means of most pioneers.”39 These early
and controlled by the federal government. From the
high land prices fell over time, which opened land
perspective of the federal government, all this land had
ownership opportunities to a wider range of people.
no real economic value until it was settled. (Some of
The minimum acreage requirement also fell over
it was inhabited by Native Americans who were, yet
time, which created lower total expenditure amounts.
again, displaced in these federal efforts.)
By the time of the Homestead Act in 1862, any adult
To realize the value that was only potential value prior head of a family could purchase a minimum of forty
to settlement, the new federal government had to set acres of land for only a $10 registration fee. Under the
out a procedure for distributing the land to private Homestead Act, the price per acre was literally zero—
owners. Some of the logistical work for doing this was this reflects the gradual trend over the course of the
already in place as a result of the system of townships nineteenth century to a more liberal land distribution
that had been developed in the colonial period in New policy and to much more widespread land ownership.
England. This system provided a way of subdividing
Flour Wheat
Period Philadelphia New York New Orleans Philadelphia New York New Orleans
1816‐1820 63 66 72 45 48
1821‐1825 52 52 56 39 38
1826‐1830 68 67 67 50 48
1831‐1835 73 74 76 57 56
1836‐1840 73 73 77 59 61
1841‐1845 77 73 86 68 65 90
1846‐1850 78 71 87 68 63 88
1851‐1855 82 79 90 73 61 90
1856‐1860 88 95 89 79 70 86
Wholesale Prices in Cincinnati, Ohio as a Percentage of Wholesale Prices in Philadelphia, New York, and New Orleans48
THE GROWTH OF MANUFACTURING. As the American economy evolved, the earliest forms of
The Growth of Manufacturing
manufacturing—which had been done inside households—changed dramatically. This evolution
Aggregate demand curve – a graphical depiction Competitive market – a market with many buyers and
of the relationship between the level of desired sellers trading a homogenous good or service in
expenditures in an economy and the price level which each buyer and seller is a price taker
Aggregate supply curve– a graphical depiction of Complements– two goods for which a rise in the price
the relationship between the quantity of goods and of one leads to a decline in the demand for the other
services firms wish to supply and the price level
Consumer Price Index (CPI)– an index constructed by
Average labor productivity – total output divided by the comparing the cost of purchasing a fixed basket of
quantity of labor employed in its production goods at different times
Bank run– a sudden rush of depositors seeking to Consumer surplus– the difference between the amount
withdraw funds from the banking system that a buyer would be willing to pay for a good or
service and the price actually paid
the marginal costs corresponding to this equation are MC(q) = 2 + q/150. 20. Moses Abramovitz and Paul A. David, “Convergence and Deferred
7. N. Gregory Mankiw, Principles of Economics, 4th ed. (Mason, OH: Catch-up: Productivity Leadership and the Waning of American
122
Thomson Southwestern, 2007) 345–46.
USAD Economics Resource Guide • 2016–2017
Exceptionalism,” The Mosaic of Economic Growth, ed. Ralph Landau,
et al. (Palo Alto: Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1996.)
8. Rachel Holliday Smith, “How Does Congestion Pricing Work? What
to Know About the Toll System Taking Manhattan,” The City, 15 21. J
oshua L. Rosenbloom, “Colonial America” in the Handbook of
September 2021, Accessed 5 November 2021 https://www.thecity. Cliometrics, C. Diebolt and M. Haupert (eds). (New York: Springer-
nyc/2021/9/15/22674371/how-does-congestion-pricing-work-toll-system- Verlag, 2018), 10.
in-manhattan. 22. Stanley L. Engerman, Richard Sutch, and Gavin Wright, “Slavery”
9. “Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States of America Chapter Bb in Historical Statistics of the United States: Millennial
from 1990 to 2019 (in billion chained (2012) U.S. dollars),” Statista, Edition. Edited by Susan B. Carter, Scott S. Gartner, Michael R.
Accessed 15 September 2020 <https://www.statista.com/statistics/188141/ Haines, Alan L. Olmstead, Richard Sutch and Gavin Wright (New
annual-real-gdp-of-the-united-states-since-1990-in-chained-us-dollars/>. York: Cambridge University Press, 2006).
10. I nternational comparisons of the sort presented in Figure 32 are 23. Joshua L. Rosenbloom, “Colonial America” in the Handbook of
sensitive to the prices that are used to compare production across the Cliometrics, C. Diebolt and M. Haupert (eds). (New York: Springer-
different countries. The comparisons made here use current exchange Verlag, 2018), 10.
rates to convert national GDP figures into dollars, a practice that 24. Peter H. Lindert and Jeffery G. Williamson, Unequal Gains: American
results in an understatement of the standard of living in lower-income Growth and Inequality Since 1700 (Princeton: Princeton University
countries. Using an alternative approach that better reflects actual Press, 2016), 37.
purchasing power in the different countries would perhaps double or 25. See Table H-4, “Gini Ratios for Households, by Race and Hispanic
triple income levels in countries like Ghana or Nigeria. While this Origin of Householder” in Historical Income Tables: Income Inequality
would narrow the gap in living standards relative to the U.S., the gap at the United States Census Bureau. https://www.census.gov/data/
still remains huge. tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-income-inequality.
11. T he official series probably greatly overstates the economic growth of html.
World War II. See, for example, Robert Higgs, “Wartime Prosperity? A 26. T he defeat of the French on the western frontier also opened up a new
Reassessment of the U.S. Economy in the 1940s,” Journal of Economic source of conflict between the colonists and England. Some of the
History, 52, no. 1 (March 1992). Native American lands there had been protected by French troops;
12. See Richard Sutch, “National Income and Product,” Historical Statistics now that the troops were gone, American colonists saw opportunities
of the United States, Earliest Times to the Present: Millennial Edition, to encroach onto that land. While the British tried to prevent this since
Abramovitz, Moses and Paul A. David. 1996. Edelstein, Michael. “War and the American Economy in
“Convergence and Deferred Catch-up: Productivity the Twentieth Century.” The Cambridge Economic
Leadership and the Waning of American History of the United States. Edited by Stanley L.
Exceptionalism.” In The Mosaic of Economic Engerman and Robert E. Gallman, Vol III. New
Growth, ed. Ralph Landau, et al. Stanford: Stanford York: Cambridge University Press, 2000.
University Press.
Eichengreen, Barry. Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard
Allen, Robert C., Tommy E. Murphy and Eric B. and the Great Depression, 1919–1939. New York:
Schneider. 2012. “The Colonial Origins of the Oxford University Press, 1992.
Divergence in the Americas: A Labor Market
Engerman, Stanley L., Richard Sutch and Gavin Wright.
Approach.” The Journal of Economic History 72(4):
2006. “Slavery” Chapter Bb in Historical Statistics
863–894.
of the United States: Millennial Edition. Edited