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Equity Research INDIA
November 17, 2022
BSE Sensex: 61981
United Spirits ADD
Maintained
ICICI Securities Limited
is the author and Smart Alpha: Price increases may drive
distributor of this report
consensus earnings upgrade for United Spirits Rs889
In our view, UNSP’s stock appears well poised to gain (in absolute terms) in the
Smart Alpha
immediate near term from potential price hike benefits. We have an ADD rating
and a 12-month target price of Rs940.
Consumer Staples &
Discretionary We believe United Spirits is likely to have higher price hikes benefits than its
historical average and guided range of ~1.5-2% for FY23E. Radio Khaitan has
Target price Rs940 received a price increase of ~12% in the state of West Bengal. We believe United
Spirits may also benefit from this. West Bengal has ~8% revenue salience for UNSP, in
our view. Further, there are expectations of price hikes from some large southern
Shareholding pattern states as well. We believe given the input cost inflation alcobev players had witnessed
Mar Jun Sep
‘22 ‘22 ‘22 (mid to teens), States are more accommodating to price increases (see our report -
Promoters 56.7 56.7 56.7 Regulatory tailwinds in Alcobev). UNSP has already received price hikes from
Institutional
investors 28.2 27.6 27.8 Haryana, Punjab, UP, Maharashtra and Karnataka in last 3-6 months.
MFs and others 7.9 8.2 9.0
Banks, FI’s, Ins 1.6 1.6 1.2 Abhishek Khaitan (MD, Radico Khaitan) in Q2FY23 Conference Call said “And now
FIIs 18.7 17.8 17.6 there is a price increase in West Bengal, which is effective on current dates and it is in
Others 15.1 15.7 15.5
Source: BSE the range of 12%.... We are expecting some more price increases in large southern
states within next 15 days should materialize and it will be in public domain”.
ESG disclosure score
Year 2020 2021 Chg UNSP has also initiated the phased removal of mono-cartons (for some of its
ESG score 38.0 38.5 0.5 brands) over next couple of quarters which may be tailwinds for gross margins.
Environment 16.8 16.8 0.0
Social 18.4 19.9 1.6 Input cost index remain high, however, expected to moderate: Prices of some of
Governance 78.6 78.6 0.0 the raw materials have started witnessing some softness however large commodities
Note - Score ranges from 0 - 100 with a higher score
indicating higher ESG disclosures. like ENA and glass continue to be volatile.
Source: Bloomberg, I-sec research
Equity Research INDIA
November 16, 2022
BSE Sensex: 61873
Hindustan Aeronautics BUY
ICICI Securities Limited Maintain
is the author and
distributor of this report Strong orderbook visibility Rs2,523
We attended Hindustan Aeronautics’ (HAL) Q2FY23 earnings call. Key highlights:
Q2FY23 concall update 1) RoH and spares proportion to stay elevated till FY24E; 2) EBITDA margin is
likely to stay at 26-27% owing to higher RoH revenue and cost efficiencies; 3)
orderbook accretion by Rs500bn is possible through new orders of both aircraft
Defence and helicopters; 4) RoH and development projects are likely to contribute another
Rs150bn and Rs16-17bn, respectively; and 5) cash balance to stay elevated at
Target price: Rs3,170 Rs140-150bn through to FY23-end. Going ahead, we believe HAL is on a solid
footing with robust RoH and spares revenue (likely to grow at 12-15% YoY) to
Shareholding pattern boost margins in near term and execution of manufacturing orderbook to keep
Mar Jun Sep earnings momentum intact in medium term. We maintain BUY on HAL with an
'22 '22 '22 unchanged target price of Rs3,170/share based on DCF methodology. Delay in
Promoters 75.2 75.2 75.2
Institutional execution of manufacturing orders remains a key risk to our thesis.
investors 21.3 21.3 20.4
MFs and others 7.8 7.4 7.5 Near-term margins to stay elevated. RoH and spares segment is expected to be
Banks / FIs 0.0 0.0 0.1 the mainstay of HAL’s earnings in FY23/FY24 as all manufacturing contracts were
Insurance Cos. 0.3 0.1 0.1
FIIs 4.4 5.6 7.1 completed in FY22 with little incremental growth expected over the next two years.
Other Inst 8.8 8.2 5.6 Key highlights: 1) RoH and spares segment is expected to grow by 12-15% YoY with
Others 3.5 3.5 4.4
Source: BSE
orderbook accretion of Rs150bn p.a.; 2) EBITDA margin is expected to remain at 26-
27% (compared to historical 20-22%) owing to higher proportion of (more profitable)
RoH and spares revenue; 3) aircraft/helicopter production is likely to be 25-30 units
ESG disclosure score over next two years; 4) engines revenue is expected at Rs13-14bn in FY24E. Going
Year 2021 2022 Chg ahead, we see HAL getting the twin benefits from both better margins (in near term)
ESG score 35.6 39.4 3.8 and robust manufacturing orderbook in medium term.
Environment 31.2 33.2 2.0
Social 12.0 21.4 9.5 See several growth drivers. We see several growth drivers for HAL, notably: 1)
Governance 63.6 63.6 0.0 RoH and spares orderbook accretion at Rs150bn p.a.; 2) Tumkur Helicopter facility
Note - Score ranges from 0 - 100 with a higher score
indicating higher ESG disclosures. ramping up to 60 units p.a.; 3) execution of manufacturing orderbook, starting with
Source: Bloomberg, I-sec research
83nos. LCA Mk-I from FY24; 4) design approval for LCA Mk-II and launch of
prototypes; 4) opportunities in cryogenic engines as integrator for PSLV with ISRO
and; 5) opportunities in combat related Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE)
UAV (Tapas). Besides, the company is actively tapping export opportunities, having
opened an office in Malaysia and getting interest from countries such as Argentina.
Based on the existing order funnel and capability enhancement initiatives, we
believe HAL’s orderbook might reach Rs1trn in next 12-18 months.
Outlook: Bright prospects, robust margins in near term. We see HAL in a sweet
spot, riding on its solid orderbook (highest among defence companies under our
coverage). In our view, strong order pipeline along with development projects in
progress are likely to maintain earnings momentum in medium to long run. We
maintain BUY rating on the stock with target price of Rs3,170/share based on DCF
methodology. Delay in execution is a key risk to our thesis.
Recent reports/updates
Analyst Company/Sector Date
Kunal / Renish / Ansuman BFSI: Day 1: India Financials Conference 2022 - Key takeaways Nov 17
/ Chintan / Ravin / Vishal
Manoj / Aniket / Karan Smart Alpha: Price increases may drive consensus earnings upgrade for Nov 17
United Spirits
Probal / Hardik Oil & Gas Q2FY23 review: Weak margins and high input costs sink Nov 17
earnings
Rahul / Ashwani / Aashna Techno Electric & Engineering: Muted performance; may reverse in H2 Nov 16
Rahul / Ashwani / Aashna ABB India: Stellar all-round performance... Nov 16
Rahul / Ashwani / Aashna VA Tech Wabag: Healthy execution with stable outlook Nov 16
Amit / Mohit / Pritish Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers: Earnings expected to peak out in Nov 16
FY25
Amit / Mohit / Pritish Hindustan Aeronautics: Strong order book visibility Nov 16
Harsh Mittal Grasim Industries: VSF business disappoints; all eyes on new ventures Nov 16
Vinay / Rohan Biocon: Growth across segments Nov 16
Aniruddha / Pranjal Kaveri Seed Company: Steady revenue growth despite weak cotton seed Nov 16
revenues
Aniruddha / Karan / Pranjal Syrma SGS Technology: Strong print; capacity expansion on track Nov 16
Basudeb / Pratit Apollo Tyres : Operationally in-line; need to focus on FCF ahead Nov 16
Kunal / Renish / Chintan JM Financial : Much awaited loan growth kicks in; gained earnings traction Nov 15
in non-lending businesses also key to rerating
Basudeb / Pratit Balkrishna Industries : Beat across major operational parameters Nov 15
Adhidev Chattopadhyay Mindspace Business Parks REIT : Steady leasing traction Nov 15
Adhidev Chattopadhyay Sobha : Sales momentum intact Nov 15
Probal / Hardik ONGC : Robust earnings, improving prospects Nov 15
Vinay / Rohan Strides Pharma Science : Strong recovery in US sales Nov 15
Rahul / Ashwani / Aashna AIA Engineering : Volume and realisation uptick leads to a strong quarter Nov 15
Vinay / Rohan Abbott India : In-line revenues; subdued costs lift margins Nov 15
Vinay / Rohan Glenmark Pharma : Licensing income drives beat Nov 15
Vinay / Rohan Aurobindo Pharma : Weak US sales drags performance Nov 15
Rahul / Anshuman CESC: Haldia plant's weak performance and higher DF losses impact Nov 15
profits
Vinay / Rohan JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals : Consistent performance Nov 15
Vinay / Rohan Shilpa Medicare : Margin woes continue Nov 15
Manoj / Aniruddha Vedant Fashions : SSSG below expectations; demand outlook healthy Nov 15
Vinay / Rohan Fortis Healthcare : Momentum in hospital business continues Nov 15
Sanjesh / Akash Railtel Corporation of India: Strong outlook for H2FY23 Nov 15
Vinay / Rohan Thermax: Healthy execution; profitability improves Nov 15
Amit / Mohit / Pritish NMDC: Subdued earnings, murky outlook Nov 15
Basudeb / Pratit Bharat Forge: India business steady; EU falters Nov 15
Rahul / Anshuman Genus Power Infrastructures: Execution improves; H2FY23 likely to be Nov 15
much better
Rahul / Anshuman GR Infraprojects: Order execution improves, but inflow awaited Nov 15
Basudeb / Pratit Varroc Engineering: Steady India performance; debt-reduction the key Nov 15
Manoj / Aniket / Karan Jyothy Labs: High probability of stock rerating Nov 14
Aniruddha / Pranjal Godrej Industries : At 67% discount to NAV vs average 50% Nov 14
Vinay / Rohan Alembic Pharmaceuticals: Q2 sees recovery; growth could accelerate Nov 14
Vinay / Rohan Piramal Pharma : Expect stronger H2 driven by CDMO Nov 14
Vinay / Rohan Vijaya Diagnostic Centre : Growth momentum to continue Nov 14
Vinay / Rohan Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences : Occupancy rise drives performance Nov 14
Vinay / Rohan Natco Pharma : Stunted recovery mars performance Nov 14
Ansuman/ Ravin Aviation: Trends indicating improving PLFs, may help RASK in Q3 Nov 14
Vinay / Rohan Zydus Lifesciences: Moraiya cleared; Revlimid launched Nov 14
Vinay / Rohan Thyrocare Technologies: Limited volume growth hits profitability Nov 14
Amit / Mohit / Pritish Astra Microwave Products: Execution and margins expected to improve Nov 14
Amit / Mohit / Pritish Bharat Dynamics: Healthy order inflow; execution pickup to follow Nov 14
Amit / Mohit / Pritish Hindustan Aeronautics: Robust margins, robust orderbook Nov 14
Aniruddha / Manoj TCNS Clothing : Gaining pace… Nov 14
Aniruddha / Manoj V-MART : Healthy quarter! Nov 14
Harsh Mittal JK Cement : Margins surprise; market share gains may sustain Nov 14
Vinay / Rohan Aster DM Healthcare : Margin miss; outlook positive Nov 14
Vinay / Rohan Pfizer : Stringent cost controls lift margins Nov 14
Vinay / Rohan GSK Pharmaceuticals : Controlled costs support margins Nov 14
Vinay / Rohan HealthCare Global Enterprises : Performance in line with estimates Nov 14
Vinay / Rohan Alkem Laboratories : US drags performance Nov 14
Vinay / Rohan Apollo Hospitals Enterprise : Decent print; Apollo 24x7 ramps up Nov 14
Amit / Mohit / Pritish BHEL : Business revival and diversification on cards Nov 14
10
India Update, November 17, 2022 ICICI Securities
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New I-Sec investment ratings (all ratings based on absolute return; All ratings and target price refers to 12-month performance horizon, unless mentioned otherwise)
BUY: >15% return; ADD: 5% to 15% return; HOLD: Negative 5% to Positive 5% return; REDUCE: Negative 5% to Negative 15% return; SELL: < negative 15% return
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I/We Manoj Menon, MBA, CMA; Aniket Sethi, MBA, B. Tech; Karan Bhuwania, MBA; Kunal Shah, CA; Renish Bhuva, CFA (ICFAI); Chintan Shah, CA; Ansuman Deb,
MBA, BE; Ravin Kurwa, CA; Vishal Singh, MBA; Probal Sen, CA, MBA; Hardik Solanki, CA; Rahul Modi, Masters in Finance; Ashwani Sharma, MBA; Aashna Manaktala,
BTech, MBA (Finance); Amit Dixit, PGDM, B.Tech; Mohit Lohia, CA; Pritish Urumkar: MBATech (Finance); authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby
certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts are not registered as research analysts
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