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Equity Research

November 17, 2022


ICICI Securities Limited
is the author and India Update
distributor of this report
Contents
Page 2 United Spirits (Rs889): Smart Alpha: Price increases may drive consensus Add
Market data as on Nov 16, 2022 earnings upgrade for United Spirits
INDICES
% chg
Page 3 BFSI: Day 1: India Financials Conference 2022 - Key takeaways
(DoD) Page 4 Oil & Gas Q2FY23 review: Weak margins and high input costs sink earnings
BSE Sensex 61981 0.2
S&P CNX Nifty 18410 0.0 Page 5 Hindustan Aeronautics (Rs2,523): Strong orderbook visibility Buy
BSE 100
BSE 200
18747
7978
-0.1
-0.2
Page 6 ABB India (Rs3,026): Stellar all-round performance... Hold
Page 7 Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers (Rs485): Earnings expected to Sell
OVERSEAS MARKETS# peak out in FY25
% chg
(DoD) Page 8 Techno Electric & Engineering (Rs285): Muted performance; may reverse in H2 Buy
Dow Jones 33554 0.1
Nasdaq Comp. 11184 1.5 Page 9 VA Tech Wabag (Rs301): Healthy execution with stable outlook Buy
S&P 500 3959 0.8 Page 10 Results date reckoner / Recent reports/updates
Hang Seng 17995 1.3
Nikkei 28026 0.0
Highlights
ADVANCES/DECLINES (BSE) Sector/event Impact
Group A B S
Advances 254 395 1387 CONSUMER: Price increases may drive consensus earnings upgrade for United
Declines 451 646 2150
Unchanged 4 10 102 United Spirits Spirits. In our view, UNSP’s stock appears well poised to gain (in absolute
– Smart Alpha terms) in the immediate near term from potential price hike benefits. We have
FII TURNOVER (BSE+NSE)* an ADD rating and a 12-month target price of Rs940. We believe United
(Rs mn) Spirits is likely to have higher price hikes benefits than its historical average
Bought Sold Net
75490 76750 (1260) and guided range of ~1.5-2% for FY23E. Radio Khaitan has received a price
increase of ~12% in the state of West Bengal. We believe United Spirits may
CURRENCY also benefit from this. West Bengal has ~8% revenue salience for UNSP, in
US$1 = Rs81.42
our view. Further, there are expectations of price hikes from some large
*FII turnover (BSE + NSE) as on southern states as well. We believe given the input cost inflation alcobev
Nov 15, 2022 players had witnessed (mid to teens), States are more accommodating to
price increases (see our report - Regulatory tailwinds in Alcobev). UNSP has
already received price hikes from Haryana, Punjab, UP, Maharashtra and
Karnataka in last 3-6 months.
Snippets
ECONOMY
 India will fast-track permissions and handhold investors putting up capacities under the various
PLI schemes as it seeks to reinvigorate manufacturing in the country. Top officials of the
Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade, Niti Aayog and the finance ministry
among others met last week for a status check with PLI investments having crossed the Rs250bn
March target. The holistic review of the scheme that neared two years showed while some sectors
had over-performed, others were lagging. (The Economic Times)
 Electric vehicles (EV) maker Ather Energy is on course to increase its revenues fivefold year on
year this fiscal to Rs20-22bn, riding on a spurt in sales and increased capacity from a new plant.
The maker of 450 Pro and 450X electric scooters is looking to sell between 90,000 and 1,00,000
units in FY23, up more than 300% from sale of 23,000 e-scooters in FY22, said people aware of
its plans. In the first seven months of FY23, Hero MotoCorp and Sachin Bansal-backed company
sold about 35,480 e-scooters. (The Economic Times)
Market movement (BSE+NSE) Volumes in Rs mn (BSE and NSE) Advances & Declines ratio (BSE)
BSE NSE (RHS) NSE BSE (RHS) 1.4
62500 18800 800000 80000
700000 70000 1.2
62000 18300
600000 60000 1.0
61500 17800
500000 50000
0.8
61000 17300 400000 40000
0.6
300000 30000
60500 16800
0.4
200000 20000
60000 16300 0.2
100000 10000
59500 15800 0 0 0.0
2-11 4-11 6-11 8-11 10-11 12-11 14-11 16-11 2-11 4-11 6-11 8-11 10-11 12-11 14-11 16-11 2-11 4-11 6-11 8-11 10-11 12-11 14-11 16-11

ICICI Securities Limited, ICICI Venture House, Appasaheb Marathe Marg, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400 025, India.
Phone: +91 22 2288 2460/70 Fax: +91 22 2298 2448
ICICI Securities Inc, 275 Madison Avenue - Suite 1417, 7th Floor, New York, NY 10017
United States. Tel: 212-388-0677
Equity Research INDIA
November 17, 2022
BSE Sensex: 61981
United Spirits ADD
Maintained
ICICI Securities Limited
is the author and Smart Alpha: Price increases may drive
distributor of this report
consensus earnings upgrade for United Spirits Rs889
In our view, UNSP’s stock appears well poised to gain (in absolute terms) in the
Smart Alpha
immediate near term from potential price hike benefits. We have an ADD rating
and a 12-month target price of Rs940.
Consumer Staples &
Discretionary  We believe United Spirits is likely to have higher price hikes benefits than its
historical average and guided range of ~1.5-2% for FY23E. Radio Khaitan has
Target price Rs940 received a price increase of ~12% in the state of West Bengal. We believe United
Spirits may also benefit from this. West Bengal has ~8% revenue salience for UNSP, in
our view. Further, there are expectations of price hikes from some large southern
Shareholding pattern states as well. We believe given the input cost inflation alcobev players had witnessed
Mar Jun Sep
‘22 ‘22 ‘22 (mid to teens), States are more accommodating to price increases (see our report -
Promoters 56.7 56.7 56.7 Regulatory tailwinds in Alcobev). UNSP has already received price hikes from
Institutional
investors 28.2 27.6 27.8 Haryana, Punjab, UP, Maharashtra and Karnataka in last 3-6 months.
MFs and others 7.9 8.2 9.0
Banks, FI’s, Ins 1.6 1.6 1.2 Abhishek Khaitan (MD, Radico Khaitan) in Q2FY23 Conference Call said “And now
FIIs 18.7 17.8 17.6 there is a price increase in West Bengal, which is effective on current dates and it is in
Others 15.1 15.7 15.5
Source: BSE the range of 12%.... We are expecting some more price increases in large southern
states within next 15 days should materialize and it will be in public domain”.
ESG disclosure score
Year 2020 2021 Chg  UNSP has also initiated the phased removal of mono-cartons (for some of its
ESG score 38.0 38.5 0.5 brands) over next couple of quarters which may be tailwinds for gross margins.
Environment 16.8 16.8 0.0
Social 18.4 19.9 1.6  Input cost index remain high, however, expected to moderate: Prices of some of
Governance 78.6 78.6 0.0 the raw materials have started witnessing some softness however large commodities
Note - Score ranges from 0 - 100 with a higher score
indicating higher ESG disclosures. like ENA and glass continue to be volatile.
Source: Bloomberg, I-sec research

We reiterate ADD on UNSP as we believe UNSP under Hina's leadership is


targeting double-digit revenue growth over the medium term through Portfolio re-
shape. The key pillar of Portfolio re-shape includes (1) strong growth on P&A, (2)
new growth engines and (3) value chain efficiency extraction. In our opinion,
(select) part of the street getting concerned on no immediate (optical) benefit, is
too myopic. We believe focused approach can accelerate the journey (much
efficiently). Inflationary RM can potentially lead to some short-term pain (in terms
of margins) with UNSP looking to invest behind premium brands. Refer our
previous notes on UNSP for detailed understanding of growth levers for the
company (Link 1, Link 2).
Keys risks: 1) Higher than expected raw material inflation; and 2) a potential ban of
spirits in states.
Market Cap Rs646bn/US$7.9bn Year to March FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E
Reuters/Bloomberg UNSP.BO/UNSP IN Net Revenue (Rs mn) 78,892 93,817 102,255 105,670
Shares Outstanding (mn) 726.6 Net Profit (Rs mn) 4,617 9,789 10,472 11,948
Research Analysts: 52-week Range (Rs) 975/712 Dil. EPS (Rs) 6.4 13.5 14.4 16.4
Manoj Menon Free Float (%) 43.3 % Chg YoY (41.5) 112.0 7.0 14.1
manoj.menon@icicisecurities.com FII (%) 17.6 P/E (x) 139.9 66.0 61.7 54.0
+91 22 6807 7209
Daily Volume (US$'000) 17,239 CEPS (Rs) 9.8 17.0 17.9 20.0
Aniket Sethi
aniket.sethi@icicisecurities.com Absolute Return 3m (%) 9.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 65.9 43.1 42.5 37.4
+91 22 6807 7632 Absolute Return 12m (%) (5.0) Dividend Yield (%) - - - -
Karan Bhuwania Sensex Return 3m (%)
karan.bhuwania@icicisecurities.com
3.8 RoCE (%) 15.0 25.9 22.1 20.8
+91 22 6807 7351 Sensex Return 12m (%) 4.1 RoE (%) 11.6 21.7 18.5 17.0

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report


Equity Research INDIA
November 17, 2022
BSE Sensex: 61981
BFSI
ICICI Securities Limited
is the author and
distributor of this report
Day 1: India Financials Conference 2022 – Key
takeaways
Day-1 of India Financials Conference 2022 spread over the week with the
underlying theme ‘New-Age, New-Edge, New-Pledge’ was enriching and insightful.
The conference is focused on assessing how institutions are reshaping
themselves to become new-age entities with new-edge capabilities and new-
pledge of future-ready sustainable ecosystem.
Eminent speaker, Dr. Rakesh Mohan, President & Distinguished Fellow, Centre for
Social & Economic Progress (CSEP), unveiled the event with his keynote address.
He emphasised how India is managing the impossible trinity of capital account
convertibility, exchange rate management and monetary policy framework. Also,
he sounded confident that India’s financial system is well positioned for growth.
We also hosted Dr. Sreeram Chaulia, Professor & Dean at Jindal University of
International Affairs who articulated his views and perspective on current
geopolitical and economic scenario and how New India is conducting itself during
the episodes of geopolitical conflicts.
We had a blend of representation from banks, NBFCs, asset managers, SFBs,
MFIs and distributors on Day-1. Some common read-throughs include: 1) During
festive season, credit demand has gained traction improving visibility on growth.
2) Deposit growth continues to lag credit growth expanding the C/D ratio and
banks are focused on accelerating the granular deposit engine. 3) Loan repricing
benefit (EBLR with 1-3 month reset / MCLR with 3-6 months reset) will flow in the
coming quarters as well though to be offset by deposit cost pressure. 4)
Continuous investment in building capabilities has resulted in elevated cost
structure, but operating leverage benefit should flow as growth gains momentum.
Incrementally MFI players are focusing more on new customer acquisition to drive
AUM growth, given that customer acquisition was muted over the past two years
due to covid uncertainties. Commercial vehicle, especially SCV, segment has
witnessed good traction. Freight rates are rising in tandem with fuel prices
Research Analysts:
enabling the small fleet operators to maintain cashflows even during high
Kunal Shah inflation.
kunal.shah@icicisecurities.com
+91 22 6807 7572 AMCs and distributors are likely to see lower pressure on yields as majority of the
Ansuman Deb industry AUM has been churned on new rates. However, change in AUM mix can
ansuman.deb@icicisecurities.com
+91 22 6807 7312 lead to decline in overall yields. AMCs are starting to seeing good traction in debt
Renish Bhuva passive category, target maturity funds etc. Companies were overall bullish on
renish.bhuva@icicisecurities.com
+91 22 6807 7465 the financialisation theme.
Chintan Shah
chintan.shah@icicisecurities.com We are equally excited about the remaining two days of the conference where we
+91 22 6807 7658 would be hosting more than 20 corporates. We look forward to our clients’
Ravin Kurwa presence at the event.
ravin.kurwa@icicisecurities.com
+91 22 6807 7653
Vishal Singh
vishal.singh1@icicisecurities.com
+91 22 6807 7230

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report


Equity Research INDIA
November 17, 2022
BSE Sensex: 61981 Oil & Gas
ICICI Securities Limited
is the author and Q2FY23 review: Weak margins and high input costs sink
distributor of this report earnings
 Q2FY23 EBITDA for oil & gas coverage universe declined by a material 44% YoY,
Q2FY23 result review
with PAT down 85% YoY for the quarter (QoQ EBITDA declined 35%, PAT declined
66%). The weakness in Q2FY23 was due to sharply lower OMC earnings, with still
Oil & Gas and material marketing losses and relatively lower delta from GRMs impacting
Petrochemicals earnings. For gas companies, constraints on gas supply due to 2.5mt LNG
stoppage by Gazprom in May 2022 and the very high gas prices resulted in a very
RIL (ADD) weak quarter. EBITDA for the 6 gas companies in our coverage declined 27% YoY
(36% decline QoQ) with a similar 27% decline YoY in PAT (down 26% QoQ). OMCs
IOCL (BUY)
continued to see elevated losses for the second successive quarter, with Rs201bn
BPCL (ADD)
of operating losses and a PAT loss of Rs260bn. Upstream companies (ONGC +
HPCL (REDUCE)
OIL India) reported 46% YoY jump in EBITDA, but gains were limited by US$23-
ONGC (BUY) 24/bbl windfall tax impact on oil realisation. RIL witnessed weak OTC performance
OIL (BUY) that limited YoY EBITDA gain and PAT was flat YoY.
GAIL (BUY)
 Oil marketing companies (OMCs) – marketing margins remain a drag, GRMs
GSPL (BUY)
dip QoQ: Earnings for the 3 OMCs remain subdued for the second successive
PLNG (REDUCE)
quarter, with retail marketing losses for petrol and diesel material at Rs1/ltr and
IGL (BUY) Rs10/ltr, respectively. GRMs also dipped from record highs seen in Q1, ranging from
MGL (BUY) US$8.4-18.5/bbl in Q2 vs US$17-32/bbl in Q1. Overall EBITDA loss of Rs201bn vs
Gujarat Gas (ADD) loss of Rs170.4bn in Q1 and PAT loss of Rs260bn vs loss of Rs184.8bn implies the
weakest H1 performance in the last decade for OMCs.
 City gas distribution (CGD) – gas costs bite: The 3 CGD companies delivered a
weak Q2FY23, with a mixed bag of earnings performance. IGL and MGL saw the
pressure from very high gas costs impacting the margins, with EBITDA/scm seeing
11% YoY and 18% QoQ decline for IGL and 24% YoY and 13% QoQ decline for
MGL. GGL, however, saw a 33% YoY dip in volumes but a sharp 129% YoY jump in
EBITDA/scm ensuring PAT rose 62% YoY. We continue to have BUY rating on IGL
& MGL and an ADD rating on GGL.
 RIL – OTC weakness obscures strong retail/Jio performance: Post a record
Q1FY23 performance, OTC margins were very weak in Q2, driving a material 9%
YoY and 46% QoQ dip in OTC segment earnings. Overall EBITDA growth of 20%
YoY was still material, owing to strong performance from retail, Jio and upstream
segments. Our ADD rating remains unchanged, driven by stronger-than-estimated
capex, lower return ratios and limited return of cash to shareholders.
 Upstream – YoY performance strong, despite windfall tax impact: ONGC and
OIL India reported a combined 46% YoY jump in EBITDA but a 23% YoY decline in
PAT. Operating profits improved owing to sharply higher oil & gas realisations
(despite US$23-25/bbl impact of the ‘windfall’ tax imposed wef July 1, 2022). PAT
growth was hampered by a material Rs82bn benefit of deferred tax adjustment seen
Research Analysts: in Q2FY23 for ONGC. We retain BUY on OIL and ONGC.
Probal Sen  Gas utilities – strong results: The three gas utilities (GAIL, PLNG, GSPL)
probal.sen@icicisecurities.com
+91 22 6807 7274 delivered a 37% YoY dip in EBITDA and 36% YoY PAT decline, due to weak
Hardik Solanki demand environment, weak gas trading results for GAIL and constrained gas
solanki.hardik@icicisecurities.com supplies owing to Gazprom contract volumes unavailability in Q2FY23. No change in
+91 22 6807 7386
ratings for the companies; BUY on GAIL & GSPL; REDUCE on PLNG.
 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report


Equity Research INDIA
November 16, 2022
BSE Sensex: 61873
Hindustan Aeronautics BUY
ICICI Securities Limited Maintain
is the author and
distributor of this report Strong orderbook visibility Rs2,523
We attended Hindustan Aeronautics’ (HAL) Q2FY23 earnings call. Key highlights:
Q2FY23 concall update 1) RoH and spares proportion to stay elevated till FY24E; 2) EBITDA margin is
likely to stay at 26-27% owing to higher RoH revenue and cost efficiencies; 3)
orderbook accretion by Rs500bn is possible through new orders of both aircraft
Defence and helicopters; 4) RoH and development projects are likely to contribute another
Rs150bn and Rs16-17bn, respectively; and 5) cash balance to stay elevated at
Target price: Rs3,170 Rs140-150bn through to FY23-end. Going ahead, we believe HAL is on a solid
footing with robust RoH and spares revenue (likely to grow at 12-15% YoY) to
Shareholding pattern boost margins in near term and execution of manufacturing orderbook to keep
Mar Jun Sep earnings momentum intact in medium term. We maintain BUY on HAL with an
'22 '22 '22 unchanged target price of Rs3,170/share based on DCF methodology. Delay in
Promoters 75.2 75.2 75.2
Institutional execution of manufacturing orders remains a key risk to our thesis.
investors 21.3 21.3 20.4
MFs and others 7.8 7.4 7.5  Near-term margins to stay elevated. RoH and spares segment is expected to be
Banks / FIs 0.0 0.0 0.1 the mainstay of HAL’s earnings in FY23/FY24 as all manufacturing contracts were
Insurance Cos. 0.3 0.1 0.1
FIIs 4.4 5.6 7.1 completed in FY22 with little incremental growth expected over the next two years.
Other Inst 8.8 8.2 5.6 Key highlights: 1) RoH and spares segment is expected to grow by 12-15% YoY with
Others 3.5 3.5 4.4
Source: BSE
orderbook accretion of Rs150bn p.a.; 2) EBITDA margin is expected to remain at 26-
27% (compared to historical 20-22%) owing to higher proportion of (more profitable)
RoH and spares revenue; 3) aircraft/helicopter production is likely to be 25-30 units
ESG disclosure score over next two years; 4) engines revenue is expected at Rs13-14bn in FY24E. Going
Year 2021 2022 Chg ahead, we see HAL getting the twin benefits from both better margins (in near term)
ESG score 35.6 39.4 3.8 and robust manufacturing orderbook in medium term.
Environment 31.2 33.2 2.0
Social 12.0 21.4 9.5  See several growth drivers. We see several growth drivers for HAL, notably: 1)
Governance 63.6 63.6 0.0 RoH and spares orderbook accretion at Rs150bn p.a.; 2) Tumkur Helicopter facility
Note - Score ranges from 0 - 100 with a higher score
indicating higher ESG disclosures. ramping up to 60 units p.a.; 3) execution of manufacturing orderbook, starting with
Source: Bloomberg, I-sec research
83nos. LCA Mk-I from FY24; 4) design approval for LCA Mk-II and launch of
prototypes; 4) opportunities in cryogenic engines as integrator for PSLV with ISRO
and; 5) opportunities in combat related Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE)
UAV (Tapas). Besides, the company is actively tapping export opportunities, having
opened an office in Malaysia and getting interest from countries such as Argentina.
Based on the existing order funnel and capability enhancement initiatives, we
believe HAL’s orderbook might reach Rs1trn in next 12-18 months.
 Outlook: Bright prospects, robust margins in near term. We see HAL in a sweet
spot, riding on its solid orderbook (highest among defence companies under our
coverage). In our view, strong order pipeline along with development projects in
progress are likely to maintain earnings momentum in medium to long run. We
maintain BUY rating on the stock with target price of Rs3,170/share based on DCF
methodology. Delay in execution is a key risk to our thesis.

Market Cap Rs844bn/US$10.3bn Year to Mar FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E


Reuters/Bloomberg HIAE.BO / HNAL IN Revenue (Rs mn) 2,27,545 2,46,200 2,61,813 2,82,758
Shares Outstanding (mn) 334.4 EBITDA(Rs mn) 53,494 54,086 65,542 69,848
Research Analysts: 52-week Range (Rs) 2614/1211 Net Income (Rs mn) 32,391 50,799 46,111 48,735
Amit Dixit Free Float (%) 13.8 EPS (Rs) 96.9 151.9 137.9 145.7
amit.dixit@icicisecurities.com FII (%) 5.6 P/E (x) 26.0 16.6 18.3 17.3
+91 22 6807 7289 Daily Volume (US$'000) CEPS (Rs)
29,533 132.1 185.1 172.1 182.5
Mohit Lohia
Absolute Return 3m (%) 11.1 EV/E (x) 14.5 13.0 10.7 9.6
mohit.lohia@icicisecurities.com
+91 22 6807 7510 Absolute Return 12m (%) 77.4 Dividend Yield 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.9
Pritish Urumkar Sensex Return 3m (%) 4.3 RoCE (%) 26.2 21.7 23.5 21.9
Pritish.urumkar@icicisecurities.com Sensex Return 12m (%) 3.2 RoE (%) 21.0 26.3 20.5 19.0
+91 22 6807 7314
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Equity Research INDIA
November 16, 2022
BSE Sensex: 61873
ABB India HOLD
ICICI Securities Limited Maintained
is the author and
distributor of this report Stellar all-round performance… Rs3,026
ABB India (ABB) continued its impressive performance in Q3CY22 in line with our
Q3CY22 result review expectations. Revenues grew 19% YoY to ~Rs21.2bn (I-Sec: Rs21.3bn) led mainly
and target price revision by strong growth in motion and electrification segments. Process automation and
robotics saw muted growth due to supply-chain challenges. EBITDA margin
Capital Goods expanded by 50bps YoY to 10% led by: 1) gross margin expansion of 30bps YoY,
2) operating leverage, and 3) efficiency improvement across the value chain.
EBITDA grew 25% YoY to Rs2.1bn. With overall improvement in the operating
Target price: Rs3,117
performance and higher ‘other income’ (+89% YoY on higher cash balance), APAT
grew 40.1% YoY to Rs1.7bn. Order inflow was healthy (+38% YoY) supported by
Target price revision
Rs3,117 from Rs2,842 short-cycle orders, leading to orderbook value of ~Rs65.2bn. Management
indicated strong demand across various industries. We see ABB as a strong play
on the manufacturing sector. Focus on cash collection continued with the cash
Shareholding pattern balance strong at Rs31.2bn (vs Rs27.8bn as of Jun’22). We have broadly
Mar Jun Sep maintained our EPS estimates and rolled forward valuations to CY24E. Maintain
’22 ’22 ’22
Promoters 75.0 75.0 75.0
HOLD due to rich valuations with a revised target price of Rs3,117 (earlier:
Institutional Rs2,842).
investors 11.9 12.1 16.8
MFs and other 7.9 8.6 8.0  Robust execution continues: Q3CY22 revenues of Rs21.2bn were up ~19% YoY.
Banks/Ins.
FIIs
0.3
3.7
0.0
3.5
3.4
5.4
This was led by motion (+26% YoY) and electrification (+27% YoY) segments, while
Others 13.1 12.9 8.2 industrial automation (+3% YoY) and robotics (-10% YoY) witnessed muted growth.
Source: NSE Management expects healthy demand from sectors such as data centre,
warehousing & logistics, food & beverage, water & waste water, railways, metro, etc.
ESG disclosure score  Consistent improvement in margin: ABB has been consistently witnessing margin
Year 2020 2021 Chg
ESG score 67.7 NA NA expansion despite the hyper-inflationary environment. This is mainly on account of
Environment 67.8 - - favourable mix, ability to take price hikes, improved execution and operating
Social 50.4 - - efficiency. EBITDA margin expanded by 50bps YoY (30bps QoQ) to 10%.
Governance 84.9 - -
Note - Score ranges from 0 - 100 with a higher score
Management has maintained its target of 10% PBT margin going forward excluding
indicating higher ESG disclosures.
Source: Bloomberg, I-sec research
any exceptional item.
 Strong orderbook: Order inflow growth was strong at 38% YoY to Rs26bn in
Q3CY22, on the back of healthy ordering in short-cycle businesses and export
orders (up 53% YoY). Company won key orders from steel, cement, paper, oil & gas
and F&B sectors. Orderbook value at the end of Q3CY22 stood at a robust Rs65bn,
up 37% YoY.
 Maintain HOLD on rich valuations: With rising demand from high-growth areas,
ABB is witnessing robust earnings growth. As core industries like steel, cement and
automobile ramp up their capex spends, we expect long-cycle order inflow to gather
pace. Company has been able to strengthen its short-cycle portfolio via deeper and
wider penetration in key market areas and a cost-efficient supply chain. Maintain
HOLD on the back of expectations of continued robust growth and rich valuations.
Market Cap Rs642bn/US$7.9bn Year to Dec CY21 CY22E CY23E CY24E
Bloomberg ABB.BO / ABB IN Revenues (Rs mn) 69,340 84,792 98,986 1,15,051
Research Analysts: Shares Outstanding (mn) Adj. PAT (Rs mn)
211.9 4,433 6,341 7,802 9,439
Rahul Modi 52-week Range (Rs) 3404/1989 DEPS (Rs) 20.9 29.9 36.8 44.5
rahul.modi@icicisecurities.com Free Float (%) 25,0 % Chg YoY 138.4 43.0 23.1 21.0
+91 22 6807 7373
FII (%) 3.7 P/E (x) 134.2 101.2 82.2 68.0
Ashwani Sharma
sharma.ashwani@icicisecurities.com Daily Volume (US$/'000) 12,478 CEPS (Rs) 25.8 34.9 42.2 50.3
+91 22 6807 7340 Absolute Return 3m (%) 8.2 EV/E (x) 102.0 73.5 59.6 49.0
Aashna Manaktala Absolute Return 12m (%) 41.3 Dividend Yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
aashna.manaktala@icicisecurities.com
+91 22 6807 7397 Sensex Return 3m (%) 4.3 RoCE (%) 13.4 22.5 19.7 22.8
Sensex Return 12m (%) 3.2 RoE (%) 11.0 13.1 14.2 15.0

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report


Equity Research INDIA
November 16, 2022
BSE Sensex: 61873
Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers SELL
ICICI Securities Limited
is the author and
distributor of this report Earnings expected to peak out in FY25 Rs485
Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers’ (GRSE) Q2FY23 performance missed
Q2FY23 result review consensus estimates. Key highlights: 1) EBITDA was down 12% YoY at Rs483mn
and re-initiating despite higher gross margin owing to sub-contracting expenses shooting up 52%
coverage YoY; 2) other income rose 13% YoY to Rs408mn mainly due to higher advances;
3) orderbook as of Sep-22 end stood at ~Rs230bn of which shipbuilding accounts
Defence for 97.5%. Going ahead, we expect execution to peak out by FY25, following
which cash accretion would slow down given the orderbook concentration on
Target price: Rs390 ship building (with long gestation period). Furthermore, RFP for a big order on the
anvil is yet to be floated. The stock has given 70% return in the past three
Shareholding pattern months, and hence, we see the upside capped at CMP. We re-initiate coverage on
Mar Jun Sep GRSE with SELL and TP of Rs390, based on DCF methodology.
‘22 ‘22 ‘22
Promoters 74.5 74.5 74.5  Earnings growth stays muted: GRSE’s Q2FY23 performance was subdued. Key
Institutional highlights: 1) EBITDA margin at 7.1% (Q2FY22: 13.1%) was lower YoY owing to
investors 12.2 10.9 10.3
MFs and others 10.7 9.1 8.0 higher sub-contracting expenses; 2) H1FY23 revenue stood at Rs12.6bn as
FIs / Banks 0.0 0.0 0.0 construction has still not hit the peak revenue booking threshold of 35-60% of
Insurance 0.0 0.1 0.2
FIIs 1.5 1.8 2.1 construction progress; 3) physical construction proceeding is as per the schedule for
Others 13.3 14.6 14.2 all the seven projects on 24 platforms; 4) Sep-22 orderbook remains broadly
Source: BSE India
unchanged at Rs230bn as no new order was booked in Q2FY23. Going ahead, we
expect revenue to grow, led by construction progress on 2nos. P-17A Advanced
ESG disclosure score Frigates, 1no. AWC SWC and 2nos. Survey vessels, as they move above 35%
Year 2021 2022 Chg construction threshold. That said, we still see steep ask rate for achieving our
ESG score NA NA NA
Environment NA NA NA
revenue estimate of Rs55bn for FY23.
Social NA NA NA  Orders on anvil still remain distant. Management mentioned that the business
Governance NA NA NA
Note - Score ranges from 0 - 100 with a higher score opportunity for GRSE is at Rs760bn over the next couple of years; however, orders
indicating higher ESG disclosures.
Source: Bloomberg, I-sec research
for the company would be lower. Key points: 1) Of Rs360bn potential opportunity for
Next gen Corvettes (8nos.), GRSE might get Rs225bn in the best case, is it is
adjudged as L1 bidder; 2) as L‐2 bidder in next-gen ocean-going patrol (OPV),
GRSE will be concluding a contract for four of these OPVs during FY23 with an
order value of ~Rs32bn; 3) Indian Navy is also coming up with Landing Platform
docks worth Rs250-300bn, whose RFP is likely to be floated by CY24. In our view,
these orders would take time to finalise, resulting in earnings peaking out by FY25E.
 Outlook: Limited upside owing to hazy earnings visibility. In our view, GRSE
stock has given an impressive return of 70% in the past three months, mainly on
(likely) robust earnings momentum till FY25 and orders on anvil. However, we see
earnings sustenance beyond FY25 nebulous as for major potential orders, RFP is
yet to be floated, notwithstanding the competition with other shipyards. We re-initiate
coverage on GRSE with SELL. Our TP of Rs390 is based on DCF methodology,
implying P/E of 6x FY24E EPS, which could be the peak earnings for the company.
Market Cap Rs55.6bn/US$683mn Year to March FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E
Reuters/Bloomberg GRSE.BO/GRSE IN Revenues (Rs mn) 11,408 17,575 55,675 55,723
Shares Outstanding (mn) 114.6 Growth (%) -20.4 54.1 216.8 0.1
Research Analysts: 52-week Range (Rs) 516/204 EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,597 3,014 9,155 10,670
Amit Dixit Free Float (%) 25.5 Growth (%) (2.3) 16.1 203.8 16.5
amit.dixit@icicisecurities.com FII (%) 2.1 Net Income 1,535 1,896 6,436 7,558
+91 22 6807 7289
Daily Volume (US$/'000) 5,950 Diluted EPS 13.4 16.6 56.2 66.0
Mohit Lohia
mohit.lohia@icicisecurities.com Absolute Return 3m (%) 75.2 EPS Growth (%) (6.1) 23.6 239.4 17.4
+91 22 6807 7510 Absolute Return 12m (%) 91.9 Diluted PE (x) 36.2 29.3 8.6 7.4
Pritish Urumkar Sensex Return 3m (%) 4.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 32.6 19.9 3.1 1.3
Pritish.urumkar@icicisecurities.com
Sensex Return 12m (%) 3.2 RoE (%) 13.5 15.1 35.1 30.1
+91 22 6807 7314
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Equity Research INDIA
November 16, 2022
BSE Sensex: 61873
Techno Electric & Engineering BUY
ICICI Securities Limited Maintained
is the author and
distributor of this report Muted performance; may reverse in H2 Rs285
Techno Electric & Engineering’s (TEEC) Q2FY23 revenues declined 17% YoY to
Q2FY23 result review,
Rs2.3bn impacted by deferment of execution in the EPC segment to H2FY23.
earnings and target price
revision
Gross margin expanded by 245bps YoY to 43.1% on account of lower RM
purchases. However, due to operating deleverage, EBITDA margin came in flat at
31.2%. Order intake stood at Rs4bn, which was much lower than the Rs19bn in
Capital Goods Q1FY23. Current orderbook grew to Rs36bn from Rs32bn at Q1FY23-end.
Management indicated incremental order inflow of Rs15bn in H2FY23 (Rs23bn in
Target price: Rs461 H1). With strong order backlog, we expect execution to pick-up in H2FY23 and in
subsequent years. As FGD and transmission ordering activity gathers pace, we
Earnings revision expect order intake to continue the current momentum in FY23E/FY24E and
(%) FY23E FY24E thereby execution to remain healthy. Company has a net cash balance of Rs12bn.
Sales ↓ 7.7 ↓ 3.7 It has decided to sell ~40MW of its 129MW wind assets and offload the balance to a
EBITDA ↓ 6.8 ↓ 3.7 separate SPV. This is expected to improve receivables going forward. Given the
PAT ↓ 5.8 ↓ 3.3 strong balance sheet, healthy execution and expected pick-up in order intake, we
maintain BUY on the stock with an SoTP-based target price of Rs461 (earlier:
Target price revision Rs471).
Rs461 from Rs471
 H2FY23 to see strong execution: EPC revenue declined 20% YoY to Rs1.8bn due
to deferment of execution to H2FY23. Revenue from wind segment was broadly flat
Shareholding pattern YoY at Rs474mn, down 1% YoY. Management expects execution momentum to
Mar
’22
Jun
’22
Sep
’22
gather pace in H2FY23 due to strong order backlog and expected order inflow.
Promoters 60.2 60.2 60.2
Institutional  Weak execution impacted EPC margin: EPC segment margin contracted by
investors 28.5 28.7 28.4 300bps YoY to 15.3% due to lower execution. Management guided for EPC margin
MFs and other 27.3 27.3 26.8
Banks/FIs 0.0 0.0 0.0 to remain at ~13% in FY23. However, FY24 may see the margin at 15% on account
FIIs 1.2 1.4 1.6 of softening commodity prices and improvement in execution. Wind margin was
Others 11.3 11.1 11.4
Source: NSE
stable at ~70%.
 Healthy order intake: During Q2FY23, the company booked orders worth Rs4bn
ESG disclosure score against Rs500mn in Q2FY22 and Rs19bn in Q1FY23. Current orderbook stands at
Year 2020 2021 Chg Rs36bn. For FY23, management has maintained its order inflow guidance of Rs30bn
ESG score NA NA NA
Environment NA NA NA
from across FGD, T&D, smart metering and data centres.
Social NA NA NA
Governance NA NA NA
 Maintain BUY on healthy orderbook and inexpensive valuation: We believe
Note - Score ranges from 0 - 100 with a higher score TEEC’s foray in data centre business will be positive in the long run on increased
indicating higher ESG disclosures.
Source: Bloomberg, I-sec research thrust from the government as data centres have been granted infrastructure status.
Additionally, it derives a strong impetus from its presence in the T&D segment, as we
expect T&D ordering momentum to gather pace from Green Energy Corridor in the
next 24 months. Given healthy execution outlook with a stable margin, we maintain
our BUY rating on the stock.

Market Cap Rs31.4bn/US$385mn Year to March FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E


Bloomberg TECHNOE IN Revenue (Rs mn) 8,892 10,739 12,008 15,434
Shares Outstanding (mn) 110.0 Adj. PAT (Rs mn) 1,818 2,639 2,245 2,878
Research Analysts: 52-week Range (Rs) 315/224 DEPS (Rs) 16.5 24.0 20.4 26.2
Free Float (%) 39.8 % Chg YoY 1.5 45.2 23.8 28.2
Rahul Modi
rahul.modi@icicisecurities.com FII (%) 1.6 P/E (x) 16.9 11.7 13.8 10.7
+91 22 6807 7373 Daily Volume (US$/'000) 410 CEPS (Rs) 20.3 27.7 24.3 30.3
Ashwani Sharma Absolute Return 3m (%) (2.6) EV/E (x) 11.1 8.9 7.5 5.7
sharma.ashwani@icicisecurities.com
+91 22 6807 7340 Absolute Return 12m (%) 15.4 Dividend Yield (%) 1.4 0.7 0.7 1.1
Aashna Manaktala Sensex Return 3m (%) 4.3 RoCE (%) 12.0 15.2 8.1 9.1
aashna.manaktala@icicisecurities.com Sensex Return 12m (%) RoE (%)
3.2 11.7 15.3 11.6 13.3
+91 22 6807 7397
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Equity Research
November 16, 2022
INDIA
BSE Sensex: 61873
VA Tech Wabag BUY
ICICI Securities Limited Maintained
is the author and
distributor of this report Healthy execution with stable outlook Rs301
VA Tech Wabag’s (VA Tech) Q2FY23 revenue grew 9.7% YoY to Rs7.5bn led by 13.7%
Q2FY23 result review, YoY growth in EPC segment. Gross margin contracted 270bps YoY to 22%. However,
earnings and target higher operating leverage limited EBITDA margin decline to 110bps YoY at 7.2%.
price revision EBITDA fell 5% YoY at Rs537mn. APAT grew 79% YoY to Rs465mn on account of
higher other income. H1 order intake was down 20% to Rs15bn on a high base.
Capital Goods However, 63% of the incoming orders were from overseas. Orderbook continues to be
robust at Rs103bn (3.4x TTM sales), 64% of which is from EPC contracts. Net cash as
Target price: Rs353 of Sep’22 was at Rs828mn. Technical bids for Chennai 400MLD desalination plant
have been completed and financial bids are set to begin. Factoring-in the improved
Earnings revision profitability in H1FY23, we raise our earnings estimates. Maintain BUY on the stock
(%) FY23E FY24E
with a revised target price of Rs353 (earlier: Rs337).
Sales ↑ 0.6 ↑ 1.4  Stable quarter, await margin improvement: Revenue grew 9.7% YoY to Rs7.5bn.
EBITDA ↑ 1.8 ↑ 3.7 Municipal revenue declined 10.5% YoY to Rs4.5bn while industrial revenue surged 77%
PAT ↑ 21.8 ↑ 4.6 YoY to Rs2.9bn. Overseas execution contributed to 51% of the revenue. EBITDA
margin contracted 110bps YoY to 7.2% due to lower gross margin. However, higher
Target price revision other income (+660% YoY) led to PAT growth of 79%.
Rs353 from Rs337
 Healthy order intake: Order intake was 4.5% YoY lower at Rs4bn though the same for
Mar Jun Sep H1FY23 was healthy at Rs15bn. Current orderbook stands at a robust Rs103bn (3.4x
’22 ’22 ’22 TTM sales), of which 50% is from India and balance overseas. Key order wins during
Promoters 21.7 21.7 19.1
Institutional H1FY23 include 53MLD desalination project (Rs4.3bn) for RIL, Jamnagar, and 50MLD
investors 19.8 18.6 17.6 desalination project (Rs3.8bn) at Senegal. Management has been focusing on bidding
MFs and others 3.4 3.1 2.5
FIs/Ins Co 0.2 0.2 0.7
for more engineering and equipment supply orders and for multilaterally-funded
FIs 16.2 15.3 14.4 international projects, to support margins and cashflow.
Others 58.5 59.7 62.3
Source: NSE
 Resumption of work on Russian order: Work at Russia’s Amur Gas Chemical
Complex (AGCC) project, which was temporarily suspended during Apr’22 to Jul’22 due
ESG disclosure score to the war, has now resumed. Pending order balance is of Rs10.4bn. As execution on
Year 2020 2021 Chg the project gathers pace, we expect margin improvement to follow.
ESG score 32.8 32.8 0.0  Status quo on APGenco and TSGenco receivables: Company has receivables from
Environment 2.8 2.8 0.0 APGenco and TSGenco totalling ~Rs3bn, and from Tecpro Rs695mn. Tecpro is under
Social 16.9 16.9 0.0
Governance 78.6 78.6 0.0
insolvency proceedings by the NCLT. As for APGenco, there has been some slow
Note - Score ranges from 0 - 100 with a higher score progress as VA Tech is gradually recovering the retention money.
indicating higher ESG disclosures.
Source: Bloomberg, I-sec research  Maintain BUY on inexpensive valuation: In the FY23 Budget, there was an increased
allocation of Rs600bn towards Jal Jeewan Mission. The Namami Gange phase-2 project
is expected to be tendered out soon. Additionally, as ESG regulations tighten and
demand for water-related projects increases, industrial order inflow is likely to pick pace.
Company has developed a strong niche in the water treatment segment for industrial
and government-funded schemes, in domestic and international markets. Segmental
order pipeline continues to be strong. Hence, on continuous healthy order intake
prospects and benign valuations, we maintain BUY on the stock with a revised target
price of Rs353 (earlier: Rs337).

Market Cap Rs18.7bn/US$230mn Year to Mar FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E


Reuters/Bloomberg VATE.BO/VATW IN Revenue (Rs mn) 28,345 29,793 32,784 36,049
Shares Outstanding (mn) 62.2 Rec. Net Income (Rs mn) 1,101 1,319 1,808 1,827
Research Analysts: 52-week Range (Rs) 369/226 EPS (Rs) 17.7 21.2 29.1 29.4
Rahul Modi Free Float (%) 80.9 % Chg YoY 21.1 19.8 37.1 1.0
rahul.modi@icicisecurities.com FII (%) 14.4 P/E (x) 13.7 11.5 10.4 10.2
+91 22 6807 7373
Daily Volume (US$/'000) 910 CEPS (Rs) 19.7 22.8 30.8 31.5
Ashwani Sharma
sharma.ashwani@icicisecurities.com Absolute Return 3m (%) 21.3 EV/E (x) (Incl. Indus) 6.5 6.3 7.2 6.1
+91 22 6807 7340 Absolute Return 12m (%) (9.0) Dividend Yield (%) - 0.4 0.7 0.7
Aashna Manaktala Sensex Return 3m (%) 4.3 RoCE (%) 9.7 11.1 12.0 11.6
aashna.manaktala@icicisecurities.com
+91 22 6807 7397 Sensex Return 12m (%) 3.2 RoE (%) 8.5 8.9 11.1 10.2
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
India Update, November 17, 2022 ICICI Securities

Recent reports/updates
Analyst Company/Sector Date
Kunal / Renish / Ansuman BFSI: Day 1: India Financials Conference 2022 - Key takeaways Nov 17
/ Chintan / Ravin / Vishal
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United Spirits
Probal / Hardik Oil & Gas Q2FY23 review: Weak margins and high input costs sink Nov 17
earnings
Rahul / Ashwani / Aashna Techno Electric & Engineering: Muted performance; may reverse in H2 Nov 16
Rahul / Ashwani / Aashna ABB India: Stellar all-round performance... Nov 16
Rahul / Ashwani / Aashna VA Tech Wabag: Healthy execution with stable outlook Nov 16
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FY25
Amit / Mohit / Pritish Hindustan Aeronautics: Strong order book visibility Nov 16
Harsh Mittal Grasim Industries: VSF business disappoints; all eyes on new ventures Nov 16
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in non-lending businesses also key to rerating
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Probal / Hardik ONGC : Robust earnings, improving prospects Nov 15
Vinay / Rohan Strides Pharma Science : Strong recovery in US sales Nov 15
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Sanjesh / Akash Railtel Corporation of India: Strong outlook for H2FY23 Nov 15
Vinay / Rohan Thermax: Healthy execution; profitability improves Nov 15
Amit / Mohit / Pritish NMDC: Subdued earnings, murky outlook Nov 15
Basudeb / Pratit Bharat Forge: India business steady; EU falters Nov 15
Rahul / Anshuman Genus Power Infrastructures: Execution improves; H2FY23 likely to be Nov 15
much better
Rahul / Anshuman GR Infraprojects: Order execution improves, but inflow awaited Nov 15
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Vinay / Rohan Alembic Pharmaceuticals: Q2 sees recovery; growth could accelerate Nov 14
Vinay / Rohan Piramal Pharma : Expect stronger H2 driven by CDMO Nov 14
Vinay / Rohan Vijaya Diagnostic Centre : Growth momentum to continue Nov 14
Vinay / Rohan Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences : Occupancy rise drives performance Nov 14
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Amit / Mohit / Pritish Hindustan Aeronautics: Robust margins, robust orderbook Nov 14
Aniruddha / Manoj TCNS Clothing : Gaining pace… Nov 14
Aniruddha / Manoj V-MART : Healthy quarter! Nov 14
Harsh Mittal JK Cement : Margins surprise; market share gains may sustain Nov 14
Vinay / Rohan Aster DM Healthcare : Margin miss; outlook positive Nov 14
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Vinay / Rohan HealthCare Global Enterprises : Performance in line with estimates Nov 14
Vinay / Rohan Alkem Laboratories : US drags performance Nov 14
Vinay / Rohan Apollo Hospitals Enterprise : Decent print; Apollo 24x7 ramps up Nov 14
Amit / Mohit / Pritish BHEL : Business revival and diversification on cards Nov 14

10
India Update, November 17, 2022 ICICI Securities
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New I-Sec investment ratings (all ratings based on absolute return; All ratings and target price refers to 12-month performance horizon, unless mentioned otherwise)
BUY: >15% return; ADD: 5% to 15% return; HOLD: Negative 5% to Positive 5% return; REDUCE: Negative 5% to Negative 15% return; SELL: < negative 15% return

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I/We Manoj Menon, MBA, CMA; Aniket Sethi, MBA, B. Tech; Karan Bhuwania, MBA; Kunal Shah, CA; Renish Bhuva, CFA (ICFAI); Chintan Shah, CA; Ansuman Deb,
MBA, BE; Ravin Kurwa, CA; Vishal Singh, MBA; Probal Sen, CA, MBA; Hardik Solanki, CA; Rahul Modi, Masters in Finance; Ashwani Sharma, MBA; Aashna Manaktala,
BTech, MBA (Finance); Amit Dixit, PGDM, B.Tech; Mohit Lohia, CA; Pritish Urumkar: MBATech (Finance); authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby
certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts are not registered as research analysts
by FINRA and are not associated persons of the ICICI Securities Inc. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any
compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies
mentioned in the report.
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11

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