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Journal of Cleaner Production 73 (2014) 31e39

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Journal of Cleaner Production


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Land use and land use change in agricultural life cycle assessments
and carbon footprints - the case for regionally specific land use change
versus other methods
Stefan Hörtenhuber a, b, *, Gerhard Piringer b, Werner Zollitsch b, Thomas Lindenthal a, c,
Wilfried Winiwarter d, e
a
Research Institute of Organic Agriculture (FiBL) Austria, Doblhoffgasse 7/10, A-1010 Vienna, Austria
b
BOKU e University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Department of Sustainable Agricultural Systems, Division of Livestock Sciences,
Gregor Mendel Straße 33, A-1180 Vienna, Austria
c
BOKU e University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Centre for Global Change and Sustainability, Borkowskigasse 4, A-1190 Vienna, Austria
d
University of Graz, Institute of Systems Sciences, Innovation and Sustainability Research, Merangasse 18/l, A-8010 Graz, Austria
e
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The supply chain of a product is essential for understanding its environmental impacts. As parts of
Received 31 March 2013 agricultural product supply chains, land use (LU) and land use change (LUC) are considered to be major
Received in revised form contributors to global CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, LU and LUC (LULUC) are rarely included in GHG
30 November 2013
estimations for food and feedstuffs. Here we propose a method which can be used to derive emissions
Accepted 10 December 2013
Available online 18 December 2013
from LU and LUC on a regional level. Emissions are distributed over an accounting period chosen to
match the physically occurring carbon fluxes. As fluxes from soil organic carbon persist for years or even
for decades after a LUC episode, depending on the climatic conditions of the region, we apply 10 and 20
Keywords:
Land use
years as suitable accounting periods for tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. We compare
Land use change the proposed method with two other methods proposed in the literature. Using two types of feedstuffs
Agriculture (Brazilian soybean-meal and Austrian barley) as examples, we find that the other two methods produce
Greenhouse gas emissions mostly lower emission estimates in the case of Brazilian soybeans, and higher estimates for Austrian
GHG barley. We conclude that these differences are caused mainly by different accounting periods and by a
Feedstuffs (non)consideration of regional specificities. While analysing life cycles necessarily entails a well sup-
ported e but still arbitrary e setting of such system boundaries, we argue that the methodology pre-
sented here better reflects actually occurring carbon fluxes that we understand to be the foundation of
any environmental product assessment.
Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction those caused by land use change (Hörtenhuber et al., 2011), or from
fertilizer manufacturing. This impact of feed may strongly differ by
Agriculture, and especially animal husbandry, cause considerable region (Plassmann et al., 2010; Van Middelaar et al., 2013). As
emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). In addition to the emissions opposed to previous findings (e.g. Dalgaard et al., 2008), information
from the livestock itself, its supply chain, specifically the production on characteristics of supply chains and on specified regions of origin
of feed, needs to be considered. This was found to contribute of raw materials is increasingly available, for example on a national
considerably to overall GHGs from animal husbandry, both from scale (due to traceability or certified agricultural goods traded; see
direct cultivation-related emissions (from soil or fuels) and from e.g. UNIDO, 2010). The information can be used to estimate product-
indirect emissions (e.g. Leip et al., 2010; Weiss and Leip, 2012). The specific GHG emissions. This permits the development of a product-
term “indirect” here refers to emissions that do not occur at the and region-specific approach for emissions from the supply chains of
location or time of feedstuff cultivation; they include for example most livestock production systems; in this work, we specifically
address GHGs related to land-use and land-use-change (LULUC)
* Corresponding author. Research Institute of Organic Agriculture (FiBL) Austria, originating from the production of feedstuffs.
Doblhoffgasse 7/10, A-1010 Vienna, Austria. Tel.: þ43 (0)1 9076313; fax: þ43 (0)1 Land use change (LUC) is also termed “land conversion” or “land
9076313 20.
E-mail addresses: stefan.hoertenhuber@boku.ac.at, stefan.hoertenhuber@fibl.
transformation” in life cycle assessments (LCAs). It describes
org (S. Hörtenhuber). emissions caused by a change from a previous use to a current use,

0959-6526/$ e see front matter Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2013.12.027
32 S. Hörtenhuber et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 73 (2014) 31e39

such as the change from grasslands, savannahs or forests to crop- partly missing. For example, PAS2050-guidelines (BSI, 2011) rely on
land. Land use change and e to a much lesser extent e land use (LU, carbon emission factors per hectare of land given in IPCC (2006),
also termed “land occupation”) are thought to be among the major but they provide no scientific explanation for suggesting a dis-
contributors to global CO2 emissions, especially in the tropical re- counting period of 20 years for the resulting emissions.
gions of South-America, Asia and Africa. Emissions from LUC are Earlier methodological studies typically focused on the broader
reported to have contributed approximately 20% of total global impacts of LULUC on biodiversity and the life-support function of
CO2-emissions during the 1980ies and 1990ies (Denman et al., ecosystems (e.g. Lindeijer et al., 1998; Milà i Canals et al., 2007). A
2007). For the 2000 to 2010 decade the proportion of CO2-emis- literature review identified several recent studies that attempted to
sions originating from LUC decreases from roughly 19% to about establish methodological foundations for assessing LULUC-related
12% (Poruschi et al., 2010), or even 10% (Harris et al., 2012). How- contributions to GHG emissions for food and feedstuff LCAs: Zaks
ever, this decrease is on the one hand caused by a decreasing et al. (2009) provide a methodological basis for the calculation of
amount of CO2-emissions from deforestation and on the other hand LULUC-related emissions from agricultural products and conducted
by a strongly increasing CO2 emission load from fossil sources case studies for Brazilian soybeans and beef. Müller-Wenk and
which occurred in most years of this time period (see e.g. Le Quéré Brandão (2010) investigated ways to integrate the impact of land
et al., 2013; Poruschi et al., 2010). On the one hand, LUC from use on climate impacts into LCAs. Ponsioen and Blonk (2012)
vegetated land is usually associated with a large, loss of carbon calculated LUC-related carbon footprints for agricultural products,
from (perennial) aboveground biomass, and on the other hand, soil while Kool et al. (2009), Meul et al. (2012), Van Middelaar et al.
organic carbon (SOC) is typically mineralized and emitted as a (2013) and Schmidinger and Stehfest (2012) specifically
consequence of soil disturbance during LUC and LU. Furthermore, addressed LULUC emissions from feedstuffs. Furthermore,
LUC and to a lesser extent LU cause other negative environmental Cederberg et al. (2011), Leip et al. (2010) and Weiss and Leip (2012)
effects, as they usually result in a significantly reduced biodiversity, analysed LULUC-related emissions from livestock which originate
especially in tropical regions (ten Brink et al., 2009). Additionally, from feedstuff production. However, in the majority of publications
LUC leads to a loss of water in the global water cycle (Avissar and on feed and food product chains, no consideration of LULUC was
Werth, 2005). found when estimating GHG emissions. This underlines a meth-
Despite their large contribution to global GHG emissions, the odological gap particularly concerning accounting periods which
effects of LU and LUC have rarely been accounted for in previous are essential for an allocation of direct, product- and region-specific
LCAs or carbon footprints of food and feedstuffs (Garnett, 2009; De LULUC-related emissions. The latter is addressed in this study.
Vries and de Boer, 2009). Dalgaard et al. (2008) state that this is due Clearly, there is a need for further developing LULUC quantifi-
to both conceptual and methodological limitations. The conceptual cation methods beyond those suggested so far in literature. The
limitation refers to the feasibility of consistently quantifying all objective of this paper was to propose a method that is based on a
changes in SOC that occur in an agricultural production chain, not consideration of actually occurring LULUC-related CO2-emissions.
just those from LUC. Furthermore the authors note the in- This is accomplished by addressing appropriate system boundaries
consistencies in considering LULUC emission only for feedstuffs as well as accounting periods (temporal system boundaries) sepa-
from Brazil and Argentina, but not for inputs from European rately for LU and LUC (see chapter 2.1). In chapters 3 and 4 we apply
farmland. Concerning methodological limitations, Dalgaard et al. this method to estimate LULUC effects and their contributions to
(2008) note that the origin of feedstuffs and therefore the the overall GHG emissions from the supply chain for soybeans and
affected ecosystems are frequently not known, preventing a region- barley (see “Results” and “Discussion”, chapters 3 and 4). We also
specific estimate of quantitative changes in above-ground and compare these results to those derived from two other methods
below-ground carbon. Additionally, the authors note that it is not from literature and to a “default” variant without LULUC-related
clear whether LUC-related emissions should be completely emissions. Chapter 5 presents our conclusions.
ascribed to the crops cultivated during the first year or distributed
over a debatable period of years of cultivation. Furthermore, a study 2. Materials and methods
published by Morton et al. (2006) mention a lack of data on the
type of land use after conversion or on the specific crops being 2.1. Proposed method e scope and system boundaries
established on newly converted cropland. A mere lack of avail-
ability of data together with their uncertainty may also hamper This paper presents a method to estimate LULUC-related
inclusion of LULUC in LCAs or carbon footprints (Dalgaard et al., regionally specific emissions for agricultural lands (grassland,
2008; Plassmann et al., 2010; Van Middelaar et al., 2013). cropland, and perennial grassland) and assign these emissions to
In contrast to many feed and food supply chains, a number of products. While the aim is to look at European livestock products,
studies on biofuels already includes GHG emissions from LUC due their supply chain includes products that may have been derived
to a detailed description of carbon cycles. For example, Fargione from overseas. Specifically, crops such as oil seeds quantitatively
et al. (2008) calculated the time required for biofuels to cancel a dominate the agricultural imports (European Commission, 2013).
“carbon debt” from LUC to be 0e423 years; Searchinger et al. LUC from forests to grasslands is also linked to European food
(2008) found for ethanol produced from maize that this payback production via imports of grass-fed beef, and large LUC-related
time would be 167 years, and 34 years under optimistic assump- emissions from these imports (see Cederberg et al., 2011) can also
tions. The issue of LULUC is critical for biofuels as the extent of net be calculated with the method described herein.
GHG savings from their use is a key argument for their production System boundaries for crop-specific emissions from LULUC have
and political support (EP/EC, 2009). Since mitigation strategies for been developed based on modelling and a literature review
GHG are intensely discussed in agriculture in general, carbon (Hörtenhuber, 2011). There, it was concluded that system bound-
emission or sequestration from LULUC might similarly be consid- aries for agricultural LUC should be defined broadly when esti-
ered in feedstuff and food supply chains, especially as parts of their mating GHG emissions from agricultural production in general.
ingredients are derived from co-products of biofuels production. Therefore, the proposed method includes both short-term CO2
In recent years, a few frameworks for estimation of carbon emissions from the removal of above-ground biomass and longer-
footprints, e.g. for food, have provided methods to deal with lasting emissions from mineralized SOC (including below-ground
LULUC-related emissions. However, a consistent foundation is biomass from cleared vegetation). The latter can last decades but
S. Hörtenhuber et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 73 (2014) 31e39 33

are still a consequence of soil disruption during LUC. Besides LUC, After 20 years, even temperate soils tend to approach equilibrium
the proposed method considers agricultural LU which has the po- (more than 99% of all SOC emissions have occurred). As described in
tential to cause GHG emissions (or sequestration) for the duration detail elsewhere (Hörtenhuber, 2011) we thus propose to use 10
of the use as cropland and grassland. These emissions depend on years as accounting period for tropical soils, and 20 years for
crop management practices, e.g. the crop rotation, fertilization, and temperate soils.
different types, times and intensities of tillage activities, etc. We As with below-ground GHG releases, carbon releases from
propose to limit estimates of LU-related GHG emissions to actually above-ground biomass will not occur instantaneously. Wherever
occurring emissions and resource use, in a way similar to that biomass is removed, it can remain stored for several years before
proposed by Weiss and Leip (2012) or Van Middelaar et al. (2013), complete release of GHGs to the atmosphere. As it is very difficult to
but opposed to a common approach in LCA (e.g. Kool et al., 2009; quantify individual pathways, we simply define for above-ground
Milà i Canals et al., 2007; Schmidinger and Stehfest, 2012) that GHG emissions the same accounting period as for below-ground
assumes a default climax vegetation and uses the difference be- GHG emissions.
tween current LU and climax vegetation to derive environmental The resulting accounting periods turn out to be comparable to
impacts. those in common carbon footprint standards (e.g. BSI, 2011). In
terms of practicability, one may also argue that longer accounting
2.1.1. Indirect land use change periods (i.e. 30 years and longer) would e even for relatively recent
Besides the direct effects of LUC, indirect land use change (iLUC) tropical LUC e increasingly lack accurate historical data concerning
can affect GHG calculations for agricultural crops: when the crop in LULUC-related emissions, area of converted land, areas of cultivated
question replaces an existing crop on agricultural land, supplies of crops and related yields, etc. Additionally, the likelihood increases
the previous crop may be secured at least partially by transforming of changed production patterns that are not easily accounted for
non-agricultural land to cropland elsewhere. Because of the (e.g. introduction of new crops, cessation of other crops) and
increasing relevance of the production of agro-energy, methods for introduce an additional problem of allocating LUC impacts between
the estimation of iLUC have been developed by several authors (e.g. the subsequent production patterns.
Plevin et al., 2010; Overmars et al., 2011) and are currently exten- If reforestation occurs after agricultural land use has ceased, the
sively discussed in the literature (Sanchez et al., 2012). Similarly, proposed method would allocate the impacts (i.e., mostly benefits
iLUC which is related to the expansion of food and feed production in the form of sequestered carbon) of this land use change to the
is starting to be discussed (Dalgaard and Schmidt, 2012). Ap- process causing it, that is to the subsequent land-use and the forest
proaches which integrate iLUC on a global, but not on a regional or products harvested then. This is in contrast to the treatment of
national level, were proposed by Williams et al. (2010) and Vellinga reforestation in several studies (e.g. Zaks et al., 2009; Cederberg
et al. (2013; method C below), also for food and feedstuffs. A et al., 2011), where the carbon sequestered by secondary forest
thorough treatment of iLUC depends on sophisticated economic after deforestation and agricultural use as cropland or pasture is
models, which depict international markets and trade flows. iLUC is credited to the carbon balance of these preceding agricultural uses.
not the primary focus of this study and was not directly addressed
in the proposed method. However, iLUC effects could be added 2.1.3. Spatial system boundaries
when consensus has been reached on a suitable method. Ideally, spatial system boundaries for derivation of LULUC-
related emissions should delineate areas that are homogeneous
2.1.2. Temporal system boundaries regarding potential natural vegetation, soil and historical occur-
In LCA practice, one-time impacts from infrastructure that are rences, e.g. human or natural disturbances. In a broader spatial
shared between several subsequent products or processes have to context and in the absence of area-specific data (e.g., on the origin
be allocated between these products. The construction of roads in a of raw materials or on regional carbon contents and emission fac-
transportation LCA is a case in point. Similarly, the conversion to tors), those regional scales with the best available data sources
agricultural land through a one-time process of LUC creates a should be used. At the lowest level of spatial resolution, this at least
cleared soil infrastructure for many subsequent harvests. The im- calls for using national statistics, supplemented by other data to
pacts from this process are usually allocated evenly over all of the arrive at a useful regional scale where areas can be differentiated
ensuing harvests. Since the number of harvests is usually highly concerning potential natural vegetation, soil and historical occur-
uncertain, an accounting period is then defined that fixes this rences of disturbances.
number at a more or less arbitrary value. The choice of accounting
period is intensely debated (see e.g. Dalgaard et al., 2008; Ponsioen 2.2. Methods used in the case studies with Brazilian soybeans and
and Blonk, 2012). It could for example reflect the actual period Austrian barley
during which LUC causes emissions, or it could reflect the planning
horizon (depreciation period) of the economic motivation for LUC. 2.2.1. Proposed method
In the proposed method, we prefer to focus on physical emission Emission estimates from LUC were based on annual changes in
fluxes: For below-ground GHG emissions from disrupted SOC and the area taken up by cropland at the expense of forests, grasslands
decaying biomass that continue for years after the initial LUC, the or savannahs.
choice of accounting period is chosen according to the actual For Brazil, area distributions of average Brazilian cropland
duration of these emissions. Information on the duration of LUC- changes were used in place of soy-specific distributions, mainly
related soil carbon fluxes was collected during a literature review. because such data are not available yet on a national scale. We used
Literature (e.g. Houghton and Hackler, 2001; IPCC, 2006; Watson data from PAS2050 (BSI, 2011) and we distinguished two main LUC
et al., 2000; West et al., 2004) points to multiple-year emissions categories: forest to cropland (mainly “Amazon”, where a total of
until a new equilibrium for soil carbon is achieved and this equil- 740 tons of CO2 per hectare can be expected to be lost after LUC to
ibration time can be used for defining the accounting period for annual cropland); and grasslands (etc.) to cropland (with an esti-
below-ground emissions due to LUC. Due to the logarithmic shape mated loss of 44 tons of CO2 per hectare after LUC to annual
of the cumulative CO2 emission curves (West et al., 2004), about cropland). Grasslands here include pasture land, savannahs (mainly
93% and 99% of emissions from SOC are assumed to be released “Cerrado”) and scrublands. Annual changes in land category shares
within 10 years from temperate and tropical soils, respectively. were derived from nationwide statistics according to FAO-
34 S. Hörtenhuber et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 73 (2014) 31e39

databases (FAO, 2013), which allowed to directly assess changes in Thus, our potential overestimate of direct LUC effects may partially
forest area, while grasslands area change was assessed indirectly as compensate the fact that our method does not explicitly include
the remaining increase of the cropland area share (again as re- iLUC. Consequently, some of the iLUC-related emissions which
ported by FAO). were found in literature may be addressed in our LUC-related
Table 1 shows the respective proportions for a ten-year ac- emission estimates for Brazilian soybeans.
counting period (2002e2011) and a twenty-year accounting period For Austrian barley, net LUCs to cropland did not occur in the last
(1992e2011) according to FAO (2013) for the two LUC categories decades. On the contrary, a net surplus of previous agricultural land
mentioned above (column “Average Brazilian soybeans”). For has been converted to “more natural” land use categories involving
example, for a ten year period prior to 2011, 85.5% of all Brazilian a higher soil carbon pool, i.e. mainly previous grasslands to forest
cropland had already been established as such. The remaining land.
14.5% were estimated to originate from cleared tropical forest area Emissions from LU need to be calculated separately for each
or grasslands. These 14.5% were split according to data from studies crop. They reflect additional emissions from a loss of SOC due to
that estimate 65e80% of newly deforested area being followed by crop management practices, e.g. ploughing. For an average Brazilian
pastures (see e.g. Morton et al., 2006; Butler, 2012) for the reflected soybean crop as well as for certified soybeans, the same generic LU-
time periods. Accordingly, we assumed that 25% of newly defor- related emissions were derived based on total national LU-
ested area are converted directly to cropland. This estimated area emissions (Cerri et al., 2009) and the fraction of soybean-
was subtracted from the 14.5% and was used as the portion of cultivated area to total agricultural area averaged over ten and 20
cropland coming from forest; the difference was ascribed to crop- years (FAO, 2013). For Austrian barley, the estimate is based on
land coming from grasslands. This translates into 7.8% of newly average regional yields (Hörtenhuber et al., 2010) and on a typical
converted cropland originating from forests and the remaining 6.7% SOC loss rate of 202 kg CO2 per ha and year (Küstermann et al.,
coming from grassland. 2008) for a standard crop rotation and soil parameters that are
Table 1 also introduces a further scenario (column “Certified typical for Austria. The rate estimate is based on the REPRO model
Brazilian soybeans”; Table 1) for each of the two periods. This de- (Hülsbergen and Küstermann, 2005) and assumes near equilib-
scribes a large portion of soybean meal imported to Austria that is rium, with some carbon losses.
certified under the “Basel criteria” (ProForest, 2004). These criteria
exclude crops from tropical forest areas recently cleared from 2.2.2. Methods used for comparison
certification. For comparison to the proposed region-specific method
The approach outlined above seems reasonable, although it uses (method A in this study) we calculated LULUC-related emissions
nationwide data and not region-specific data. We found that with two other methods (Table 2): method B is a land use impact
region-specific LUC data were not readily available for overall method by Müller-Wenk and Brandão (2010); method C is based on
Brazil. In future work, region-specific carbon fluxes and LUC average global LULUC-related emissions (Vellinga et al., 2013).
emissions may be derived from remote-sensing data (e.g. Morton Method B by Müller-Wenk and Brandão (2010) gives specific
et al., 2006; Macedo et al., 2012), thereby increasing the spatial emission factors for LUC and LU for different biomes and types of
resolution of the proposed method. land use (e.g., tropical/temperate forests, tropical/temperate
Specifically, in the case of Brazilian soybeans, we used data for grassland, cropland). Critically, the authors base their calculations
average cropland LUC, since nationwide soy-specific LUC data could on the assumption that the atmospheric residence time for carbon
not be found. This approximation may overestimate direct LUC from LULUC is shortened by the eventual uptake of that carbon due
effects: While the percentage of expansion of soybean area alone is to a spontaneous reversal to a quasi-natural vegetation at the end of
even higher than that of average cropland (FAO, 2013), most soy- land use. Müller-Wenk and Brandão (2010) allocate overall emis-
bean area expansion was into existing cropland or grassland. sions from LULUC to the (agriculturally) occupied land, distributing
However, some authors argue that soybean has caused iLUC within it over varying durations of land use, which are derived from
Brazil by causing other crops to expand into forests, grassland or “relaxation times”. Typically, these times are in the range of 31e119
pasture (Morton et al., 2006; Fearnside, 2008; Macedo et al., 2012). years. A few assumptions were applied to method B to allow
comparison: Results for land occupation (LU) take into account that
overall Brazilian cropland used for example for soybean production
Table 1 is (since the first Brazilian conversions) mostly coming from former
Area distribution and average yields of Brazilian soybean cropland (FAO, 2013). Area grassland areas or savannah-like vegetation and to a lesser extent
distribution is an average of all Brazilian crops and was assumed to be representative
for the case of soybeans as well.
from former forest lands. Accordingly, calculations for method B
assume three quarters of overall farmland for soybeans coming
Accounting period Certified Brazilian Average Brazilian from savannah-like vegetation and grasslands, one quarter from
soybeans soybeans
forests. No difference was made between average Brazilian and
10 years 20 years 10 years 20 years certified soybeans.
Proportion of area 93.9 93.1 85.5 72.0 Method C (Vellinga et al., 2013) calculates global CO2-eq emis-
being arable land sion from LULUC (5.8 Gt per year) per total agricultural land used
before the period (4.9 * 109 ha). This translates into 1180 kg CO2-eq per ha and year, or
(no LUC; %)
Proportion of area 3.9 4.4 7.8 18.0
0.472 kg CO2-eq per kg crop if the yield is assumed at 2500 kg per
converted from ha, which is a typical yield for soy crops. The approach is similar to
(tropical) forest (%) that used by Williams et al. (2010).
Proportion of area 2.2 2.5 6.7 10.0
converted from
2.2.3. Illustrative case studies
savannahs (%)
Averaged yearly 2666 2483 2666 2483 To accentuate the difference between the three methods’
yields in the description of LULUC-related GHG emissions over time, we used
periods (kg DM)a the three methods to calculate the cumulative GHG emissions for
a
available data from FAO (2013) do not distinguish between yields of GMO- two case studies. They are based on more severe LUC than the more
containing and yields of certified soybeans. realistic assumptions above: the “rainforest case” assumes e purely
S. Hörtenhuber et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 73 (2014) 31e39 35

Table 2
Specific CO2 emissions from LUC and LU for three different calculation methods.

kg CO2-eq per kg DM feedstuff GWP calculation method Average Austrian Certified Brazilian Average Brazilian
barley solvent-extracted solvent-extracted
soybean meal soybean meal

Emissions from LUC Method A (Proposed Method) e 10 years accounting period 0.626 1.341
GHG emissions from LU 0.098 0.098
Total emissions (LU þ LUC) 0.724 1.439
GHG emissions from LUC Method A (Proposed Method) e 20 years accounting period 0 0.759 3.097
GHG emissions from LU 0.050 0.119 0.119
Total emissions (LU þ LUC) 0.050 0.878 3.216
GHG emissions from LU/LUC Method B (Müller-Wenk and Brandão, 2010) 0.385 0.891 0.891
(land occupation)
Global average LU/LUC emissions Method C (Vellinga et al., 2013) 0.246 0.389 0.389
related to grain yields

for illustrative purposes e that all of the new cropland is converted periods used for method A (10 years and 20 years), they do not
from tropical rainforest, while the original assumptions are based greatly alter the result of the methods comparison in Figs. 2 and 3.
on a more realistic conversion from a mixture of grassland, rain- The LU-related portions were derived in the same way as for model
forest and already established cropland. This only affects methods A A for the “rainforest case” as well as for the “old world LUC” case
and B, but not method C, due to that method’s premises as (see chapter 2.2.1, Brazilian and Austrian LU emissions,
explained above. For the “old-world LUC” case, barley is produced respectively).
on land converted from grassland. The assumption above was that
in Austria no net LUC occurs (this affects only method A, while 2.2.4. System boundaries and allocation method for total GHG
methods B and C still assign a combined LULUC effect). This sce- emissions calculation
nario reflects structural change in a region in northern Austria To quantify the impact of LULUC-related emissions on the total
where grasslands for feeding a dwindling livestock population are global warming potential (GWP 100; IPCC, 2007) for the repre-
potentially converted to cropland. This is an exception to the sentative feedstuffs of Austrian barley and Brazilian extracted
nationwide situation, where such conversions are negligible. Data soybean meal (SBME) as imported into Austria, LULUC emissions
on calculating carbon stock changes and carbon emissions for “old from Table 2 were added to emissions from other feedstuff pro-
world LUC” were taken from Anderl et al. (2012; in total 72 tons of duction processes (Fig. 1). These include crop cultivation, industrial
CO2 lost per hectare over up to 30 years after LUC from grassland to food and feed processing, production of mineral fertilisers and
annual cropland) and BSI (2011; as described in chapter 2.2.1) for pesticides as well as direct and indirect N2O emissions from soil
the “rainforest case”. For the purpose of comparison we also show (Hörtenhuber et al., 2011). Results for SBME include the emissions
for each case study a realistic cumulative GHG emission curve from transport from Brazil to Austria.
which contains emissions from LULUC. Those are derived from CO2- Due to the extraction of soybeans, LULUC-related emissions
emissions from SOC plus above-ground carbon emitted initially, were allocated to SBME and soy oil based on their lower heating
which is distributed according to West et al. (2004) and Fearnside value, as was done for all other emissions in Fig. 1 that had to be
(2000). Following West et al. (2004), overall LUC-related CO2 is allocated.
almost completely emitted after 20 years and becomes fully
negligible after 30 years in temperate regions. Hence, we adopted
3. Results
this for the Austrian case. For the tropical region of Brazil we
assumed one half of this duration, 15 years (see Hörtenhuber, 2011).
Table 2 shows LULUC-related emissions calculated for three
Similarly, Houghton and Hackler (2001) defined time periods of 5e
20 years for tropical regions and 30 years for temperate regions. different products: average Austrian barley, certified Brazilian
While these periods are somewhat longer than the accounting

Fig. 2. Modified “rainforest case” (land use prior to LUC: primary forest only, no
Fig. 1. Total GHG emissions for feedstuffs following different methods’ treatment of grassland) e timeline of cumulative CO2 emissions as calculated by the three different
LULUC-related emissions (kg CO2-eq per kg DM). The underlying accounting period for methods and an underlying carbon release curve. Conversion occurs at the start of year
SBME in the proposed method A is 10 years; no LUC was assumed for Austrian barley. 0.
36 S. Hörtenhuber et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 73 (2014) 31e39

Brazilian SBME contribute between 35% and 67% to the overall GHG
budget, while for Austrian barley only the relatively non-specific
methods B and C result in a larger LULUC contribution of 50% and
39%, respectively.
Figs. 2 and 3 show cumulative LULUC-related CO2 emissions
over time. For the “rainforest case” (using data from Brazil; Fig. 2)
and the “old world LUC” case (using data from Austria Fig. 3), we
compare how methods A, B, and C model cumulative CO2-emis-
sions. As described in the materials and methods section, the two
cases were chosen to show large LUC effects in order to illustrate
differences between the methods.
The curves for method A with defined accounting periods reflect
more closely the logarithmic shape of the realistic curves with high
initial carbon losses from biomass and soil to the atmosphere. In
both the Brazilian and the Austrian case, method A results in much
higher cumulative emissions than method B, because the latter
allocates LUC-related CO2 over longer accounting periods than the
Fig. 3. Modified “old world LUC” case (land use prior to LUC: grassland) e timeline of proposed method A (see chapter 2.2.2). Method C e which is not
cumulative CO2 emissions as calculated by the three different methods and an un-
based on region-specific carbon fluxes e gives even lower emis-
derlying carbon release curve. Conversion occurs at the start of year 0.
sions in the two cases shown.

solvent-extracted soybean meal (SBME), and average Brazilian 4. Discussion


solvent-extracted soybean meal (SBME). Results are calculated with
the three different methods described above. For the proposed In this section we discuss some of the critical differences be-
method A, LUC-related emissions reflect a 10 years accounting tween the approaches taken by the selected methods.
period (2002e2011) for Brazilian solvent-extracted soybean meal
(SBME) and a 20 years accounting period (1992e2011) for Austrian 4.1. Physically occurring fluxes versus loss of carbon sink function
barley.
To demonstrate the effect of the chosen accounting period on In method A as developed here, GHG emissions accounted for
method A results, Table 2 shows Brazilian SBME results for a 20- should be basically restricted to physically occurring fluxes of
year accounting period as well. The emissions based on a 20-year GHGs. Thus it excludes hypothetical fluxes of GHGs. The attempt to
accounting period are higher than those for the 10-year period by use physically occurring fluxes in method A contrasts with the
21 percent and 230 percent for the certified and the average soy- approach taken by method B. Its authors ascribe hypothetical
beans, respectively. This is due to the history of Brazilian LUC, LULUC-related CO2 emissions to land use, arguing that use as
where annual conversions to cropland were less prevalent in the cropland, for example, prevents the sequestration of carbon
last decade compared to the preceding decade (see Table 1). Here, through regrowth of the original natural vegetation. The concept is
this effect prevails over a general effect of longer accounting pe- similar to others; Kool et al. (2009), for example, introduce a “loss of
riods: they distribute one-time LUC emissions over more harvests sink function”. This “loss of sink function” quantifies the reduced
and thus would give lower annual LUC emissions. sink capacity of farmland as compared to natural vegetation.
The region-specific results in method A show 50 percent lower Similarly, Schmidinger and Stehfest (2012) account for a “missed
emissions from LU plus LUC for a certified Brazilian SBME as potential carbon sink”, since on-going land occupation prevents the
compared to the average Brazilian SBME. Certified SBME shows carbon emitted during LUC from being sequestered again. Conse-
comparable total emissions between method A and method B, but quently, for products originating from land areas which were
average SBME has considerably higher total emissions when converted to agricultural land long ago, method B will generally
calculated with method A. result in higher emission estimates than in method A. In proposing
In contrast to the proposed method A, method B uses much method A, we argue that GHG emissions from LU should be treated
longer accounting periods that result in lower annual emissions. In like any other emissions in LCA, and not in comparison with a hy-
addition, Method A likely overestimates direct LUC effects of Bra- pothetical natural climax vegetation, which would need to be
zilian soy cultivation by using nationwide cropland data instead of specified at a high spatial resolution to match the regional approach
soy-specific data (see chapter 2.2.1). As a consequence, method A taken by method A. We respect the well-established concept that
ascribes a larger LULUC-related CO2 burden to Brazilian soybeans was developed earlier, for example by Lindeijer et al. (1998) and
than method B. Milà i Canals et al. (2007), to quantify various impacts of land use.
In the case of Austrian barley, method B gives much higher es- But while that approach appears reasonable for hard-to measure
timates than method A. This can be explained by method B using impacts such as biodiversity and the capacity of land to support life,
unspecific carbon stock data concerning small-scale regions we consider GHG emissions to be more easily quantifiable.
(regarding potential natural vegetation, soil and historical human
or natural disturbances) and by its inclusion of LU-related emis- 4.2. Consistency of time horizons
sions based on the “loss of sink function” concept.
Unlike method A, Method C does not differentiate between re- Another concern is a lack of consistency of the time horizon for
gions with regard to original land uses prior to conversion to GHG emissions if method B is used in LCAs or carbon footprints:
cropland. Therefore, method C gives much lower LULUC emissions impacts of different GHGs on climate change are made comparable
than method A for Brazilian soybeans but higher emissions for with the concept of GWP as part of the characterization step in LCA.
Austrian barley. A GWP requires for its calculation a reference period that is typi-
Fig. 1 demonstrates how the various LULUC estimates affect the cally set to one-hundred years. In our opinion, method B treats CO2
total GHG budget for the two case studies: LULUC estimates for emissions from LUC like a GHG with a lower GWP than fossil CO2.
S. Hörtenhuber et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 73 (2014) 31e39 37

However, its calculation is based on reference periods that vary efficiency of land use allocated to regional yields, it provides
with the land use types involved, and not on the one-hundred year regional LULUC emissions.
reference period that would typically be used in the same LCA to
account for emissions of other greenhouse gases. Therefore, using 4.5. Accounting period
method B in an LCA or carbon footprint with other GHGs would
lead to an inconsistency in the impact assessment step if other The most intensely debated point about the use of direct LUC
GHGs than CO2 are to be considered as well. emission methods is the setting of a suitable accounting period, the
In contrast to method A, which distributes the LUC-related period over which the instantaneous LUC emissions are attributed
carbon release over a physical release time of 10e20 years, to land use (see Ponsioen and Blonk, 2012). The choice of ac-
method B distributes over the reference periods of 31e119 years counting periods obviously has a strong effect on the LULUC
(Müller-Wenk and Brandão, 2010), arguing that on-going cultiva- emissions (see soybean results from method A in Table 2; chapter
tion also prevents sequestration within the reference period. 3). We propose accounting periods (10 and 20 years) that consider
actually occurring emissions linked to the carbon cycles in soil.
4.3. Availability of temporally and spatially resolved data We argue that accounting periods should not exceed the period
during which most of the LUC-related emissions to the atmosphere
In order to derive optimal GHG reduction strategies that include occur, because an accounting period that covers a long period of
LULUC, we emphasize that a region-specific approach is needed to agricultural use frequently cannot be estimated with reasonable
quantify impacts as accurately as possible. certainty due to a lack of historic data.
For example, the low spatial resolution of the data provided by On the other hand, shorter accounting periods than in the
Müller-Wenk and Brandão (2010) for method B leads to signifi- proposed method A have been mentioned in literature (Dalgaard
cantly higher LULUC-CO2 emissions for the Austrian case (Fig. 1), et al., 2008), including an allocation of all LUC emissions to the
because their data do not account for the absence of net LUC in first year crop following LUC. However, this would mean that
Austria. converted areas no longer share the emissions from LUC after such
Additionally, carbon emissions will be underestimated for a short accounting period has ended despite on-going emission
products from recently converted agricultural land areas, although fluxes.
these may eventually emit high CO2 loads, e.g. in the case of
grassland and tropical forests recently converted into agricultural
land (Figs. 2 and 3); this is due to the considerably longer ac- 4.6. The burden of emission reductions: agricultural LCAs and the
counting period assumed in method B. This exceeds in many general context
countries the historically documented periods and introduces large
uncertainties, as historic data on LULUC will frequently not be This discussion touches on the on-going argument on sharing
available this far back in time. the burden of GHG abatement generally. Who shall own the right to
release GHGs? Classically, the “grandfathering principle” has been
4.4. Region-specific approach versus global LULUC burdens used, which accepts a current situation as given and thus assigns a
permanent right of pollution. In a similar way, method A proposed
According to method C (Vellinga et al., 2013), emissions from here suggests to maintain a certain status of agricultural land
LULUC should be derived from average global emissions, because development. By contrast, an alternate way of sharing GHG
total human consumption of all commodities is the driver for LUC. abatement has been suggested to also consider the historic
Because method C derives LULUC-related emissions from a accountability, which has become known in policy debate as the
consideration of average global emissions, it does not differentiate “Brazilian proposal” (see Rosa et al., 2003 or Neumayer, 2000). If the
between different regions when calculating LUC. A comparison of “Brazilian proposal” were implemented, it would grant each
the region-specific LUC emissions of method A to global average country, specifically developing countries, the right to emit GHGs
LUC emissions of method C shows that the differences are up to the levels industrialized countries have emitted in the past.
considerable (Fig. 1 and Table 2). They are comparable in magnitude Further emission rights should then be equally shared between
to GHG emissions from other agricultural processes (from soil, countries. Obviously this discussion is partially guided by policy
fuels, etc.). For the “old world LUC” case of European crops where interests which will also influence the perception of potential
most of the cropland was converted decades or centuries ago, strong points and shortcomings of the approaches discussed
globally derived LULUC-values are higher than the region-specific herein. While we believe that ultimately an approach that is based
GHG emissions calculated with method A. Global average LULUC on actual physical fluxes needs to prevail also for the LULUC in LCA,
emissions calculated by method C will underestimate actual LUC- this topic merits further in-depth discussion in a very transparent
related CO2 emissions if large amounts of CO2 are emitted imme- manner.
diately during LUC and before a new equilibrium in SOC has been
established. With this approach, no specific mitigation measures 5. Conclusion
can be developed.
Furthermore, Vellinga et al. (2013) characterise the land use per We propose a region-specific method for the estimation of LUC-
unit of crop harvested as a key issue (i.e. low yields or poor feed related carbon emissions. This appears to be a feasible way to
conversions cause high LUC emission). From a global point of view, quantify mitigation strategies for LUC-related GHG emissions, even
efficient land use (described by yield per ha) is certainly indirectly if they do not yet include iLUC-effects. In our opinion, methods for
related to LUC, but when considering a specific product from a calculating LULUC emissions should be based on physically occur-
specific region, inefficient land use will not automatically increase ring fluxes as far as possible. This implies that hypothetical fluxes
LUC within a relevant period. We assume that indirect LUC is not shall not be included in LCAs. While we still account for the eco-
only connected to inefficient use of cropland, but also to market nomic motivation that drives LUC by assigning LUC emissions to the
dynamics which influence land demand, as do changes in con- subsequent land use, our choice of the accounting period is
sumption habits and the growing demand for bioenergy and informed by the duration of LUC-induced soil carbon
additional drivers. While the proposed method A also includes the disequilibrium.
38 S. Hörtenhuber et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 73 (2014) 31e39

Acknowledgements model calculations considering the effects of land use change. Renew. Agric.
Food Syst. 25 (4), 316e329.
Hörtenhuber, S.J., Lindenthal, T., Zollitsch, W., 2011. Reduction of greenhouse gas
The authors are grateful to Gwendolyn Rudolph, Theresia Mar- emissions from feed supply chains by utilizing regionally produced protein
kut, Michaela Theurl, Dr. Christian Schader and other colleagues sources e the case of Austrian dairy production. J. Sci. Food Agric. 91, 1118e1127.
from the Research Institute of Organic Agriculture and the Uni- Houghton, R.A., Hackler, J.L., 2001. Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land-use
Changes: 1850 to 1990. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, U.S.
versity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna for many Department of Energy, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee,
discussions and their inputs to this paper. The authors would also U.S.A.
like to thank three anonymous reviewers for their valuable com- Hülsbergen, K.-J., Küstermann, B., 2005. Development of an environmental man-
agement system for organic farms and its introduction into practice. In:
ments on an earlier version of this paper. Köpke, U., Niggli, U., Neuhoff, D., Cornish, P., Lockeretz, W., Willer, H. (Eds.),
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