MEC-4

Outline Schedule Control on Projects

▪ Schedule Baseline and Project Schedule.
▪ MEC Methods for Controlling Project Schedule:
- CPM.
- Leads & Lags.
- Crashing & Fast Tracking.
- Resource Levelling & Resource Smoothing.
- Burn Charts.
- What If scenarios.
- Simulation.
▪ Options to control Project Schedule
▪ Simple Exercise in Schedule MC on MS Project.
Readings
▪ PMBoK-7, pages 52, 59, 60, 108-100, 111, 167, 172, 177, 188-189, 194-195, 236,
238, 240-242, 246, 249, 253.
▪ Rita-10, Chapter 6.
▪ Step by Step, Ch 6, 12 & 14.
▪ Lecture Notes. 1

Recalling
Schedule Planning
Create
WBS
• WBS
Define
Activities
• Activities & Milestones Lists
Estimate &
Allocate Activity
Resources
• Activities Resource Estimates & Allocation
Sequence
Activities
• Network Diagram
Estimate
Durations
• Activities Durations Estimates
•
Develop (using Multiple Methods)
Schedule
• Schedule
MEhsanSaeed • Schedule Baseline 2

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 Schedule, Schedule Baseline & Project Schedule … 1/2
Planning Execution

Add actual
Approve Schedule
Develop (Baseline) the
Schedule • Schedule • Schedule Performance • Project
Schedule Data Schedule
Baseline

Simple Exercise on MS Project:

B
2

A C D E
ST END
3 5 4 6

MEhsanSaeed 3

Schedule, Schedule Baseline & Project Schedule … 2/2

Schedule (Pre-Baseline)
MEhsanSaeed

Schedule
Baseline
(Gray bars)

When the Project Starts,

‘Schedule’ becomes the
‘Project Schedule’

Project Schedule 4

2
 Schedule Baseline vs Project Schedule … 1/2
Schedule Baseline Project Schedule
▪ Approved Version of the Schedule ▪ Schedule Model that tracks the
Model, comprising: Schedule Progress such as:
‒ Start & Finish Dates ‒ Actual Start & Finish Dates
‒ Sequencing & Logical Relationship ‒ Sequencing & Logical Relationship
(Dependencies) (Dependencies)
‒ Milestones ‒ Activities completed, activities in
progress, % completion of activities
‒ Hours spent
‒ Resource allocations
‒ etc

Cont’d ….

Schedule Model. A representation of the Plan for executing the Project’s activities
including durations, dependencies, and other planning information, used to produce a
Project Schedule along with other Scheduling Artifacts.

MEhsanSaeed 5

Schedule Baseline vs Project Schedule … 2/2

Schedule Baseline Project Schedule
▪ The Plan ▪ The Actual, Running Schedule
▪ Presented in the form of: ▪ Presented in the form of:
‒ Milestone Chart ‒ Milestone Chart
‒ Gantt or Bar Chart ‒ Gantt or Bar Chart
‒ Network Diagram

▪ Frozen … Can only be changed using ▪ Dynamic … Updated as the project is

MEhsanSaeed

formal Change Control procedures being executed

Schedule Baseline Project Schedule

Project
Manager

Schedule Performance (SV, SPI, EAC) 6

3
What does ‘Control Schedule’ entail?

Performed throughout the Project, Control Schedule is the process

of:
▪ monitoring the status of the project to update the Project Schedule
▪ determining the Current Status of the Project Schedule,
▪ influencing the factors that create Schedule Changes,
▪ reconsidering necessary Schedule Reserves,
▪ determining if the Project Schedule has changed, and
▪ managing the actual Changes as they occur, including Changes to
the Schedule Baseline

Key Benefit: Schedule Baseline is maintained throughout the Project

MEhsanSaeed 7

MEhsanSaeed
Methods of Controlling Schedule – Data Analysis
Tool Description
EVA Schedule Variance (SV) & Schedule Performance Index (SPI) are used to
assess the magnitude of Variation to the original Schedule Baseline
Burn Charts Used to monitor Schedule progress, particularly in the Agile & Sprint
concepts
Performance Measure, compare, and analyze Schedule Performance against
Reviews the Schedule Baseline such as actual start and finish dates, percent
complete, and remaining duration for work in progress
Trend Examines Project Performance over time to determine if performance is
Analysis improving or deteriorating. Graphical analysis techniques are valuable for
understanding performance to date and for comparing to future
performance goals in the form of completion dates
Variance • Looks at Variances in planned versus actual start and finish dates, planned
Analysis versus actual durations, and variances in float
• Determines the cause and degree of Variance relative to the Schedule
Baseline, estimating the implications of those Variances for future work to
completion, and deciding whether corrective or preventive action is reqd
What If Used to assess the various scenarios guided by the output from the Proj
Scenario Risk Mgt processes to bring the schedule model into alignment with the
Analysis PMP and approved Baseline 8

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 MEhsanSaeed
Methods of Controlling Schedule – Others
Tool Description
CPM Comparing the progress along the Critical Path can help determine
Schedule status. The Variance on the Critical Path will have a direct
impact on the project end date. Evaluating the progress of activities on
Near Critical Paths can identify schedule risk
PMIS Include scheduling softwares like MS Project, Primavera, that provide
the ability to track planned dates versus actual dates, to report
Variances to and progress made against the Schedule Baseline, and to
forecast the effects of changes to the Project Schedule Model
Resource Involve the scheduling of activities and the resources required by those
Optimization activities while taking into consideration both the resource availability
and the project time, through Resource Levelling & Resource
Smoothing
Leads & Lags Leads & Lags adjusted during Network Analysis to find ways to bring
project activities that are behind into alignment with the plan
Schedule Used to find ways to bring project activities that are behind into
Compression alignment with the plan by Fast Tracking or Crashing the Schedule for
the remaining work

Burn Charts … 1/2

 PMBOK’s discourse on Burn Charts is Agile-oriented:
▪ Burn charts can show Project Team Velocity (Velocity measures the productivity
rate at which the deliverables are produced, validated, and accepted within a
predefined interval)
▪ Can be done through Burnup or Burndown charts
▪ Burnup chart can track the amount of Work Done compared to the Expected
Work that should be done
▪ Burndown chart can show the number of Story Points remaining or the amount
of Risk Exposure that has been reduced
 Reference to Agile concepts of Iteration or Sprint notwithstanding, Burn
charts can be used to monitor Schedule progress:
▪ ‘Burndown’ refers to project work remaining, and ‘Burnup’ refers to project work
accomplished. Normal EV line in EVA may be considered a Burnup chart
▪ A diagonal line is drawn to represent the Ideal Burndown or Burnup; the time-
based Actual Remaining Work or Work Accomplished, as applicable, is then
plotted. A Trend Line through the Actual Remaining Work gives the Forecast
Completion Date of the project
MEhsanSaeed 10

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5
Iteration Burndown Chart
3,500 Scope
Increase

3,000

2,500

MEhsanSaeed
Project Value: 3,000
Remaining Work

2,000 Project Duration: 30

Ideal Remaining Work
Scope of Work
1,500 Actual Remaining Work with Trend

1,000
Project Completion
Forecast

500

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Iteration Time
11

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Iteration Burnup Chart

3,500 Scope
Increase

3,000

2,500
Ideal Work Completion
Scope of Work
Project Completion
Remaining Work

2,000 Actual Work Completion with Trend

Forecast
MEhsanSaeed

1,500

1,000

500 Scope Increase

not noticeable

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Iteration Time
12

12

6
Burndown vs Burnup Chart … Change in Scope

MEhsanSaeed
3,500

3,000

2,500
Remaining Work

2,000
Very Different Project
Completion Forecasts,
1,500 due to Scope Change
(different Graph Shapes

1,000

500

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Iteration Time
13

13

Burndown vs Burnup Chart … No Change in Scope

MEhsanSaeed
3,500

3,000

2,500
Remaining Work

2,000

Same Project Completion

1,500 Forecasts, if there is no
Scope Change

1,000

500

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Iteration Time
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Variance Analysis
▪ Variance analysis looks at variances in Planned versus 11 4 14
Actual Start and Finish dates, Planned versus Actual E
Durations, and Variances in Float 11 0 14

▪ Part of variance analysis is determining the Cause and Degree 11 4 14

of Variance relative to the Schedule Baseline, estimating the E
implications of those variances for future work to completion, 26 15 29
and deciding whether corrective or preventive action is
required
▪ A major delay on any activity not on the critical path may
have little effect on the overall project schedule, while a
much shorter delay on a critical or near-critical activity may
require immediate action

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Critical Path Method

▪ A method used to estimate the minimum project duration and
determine the amount of schedule flexibility on the logical network
paths within the schedule model.
▪ Comparing the progress along the Critical Path can help determine
schedule status
▪ The Variance on the Critical Path will have a direct impact on the
project end date
▪ Evaluating the progress of activities on Near Critical Paths can identify
Schedule Risk

MEhsanSaeed 16

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 Critical Path Method – MC Challenges when Multiple Paths Near
Critical … 1/2
A B C D E
4 8 5 7 8

F G H J
Start End
6 7 10 8

K L M N P
4 8 5 7 6
MEhsanSaeed

Paths Duration
Start-A-B-C-D-E-End 32
Start-F-G-H-J-End 31 3 Near Critical Paths
Start-K-L-M-N=P-End 30
• Variance on Critical Path have a direct impact on the Project
• Variance on Near Critical Paths can identify Schedule Risk; more the Near Critical Paths, more the
Risks of Delays
• Status of Floats; more the remaining float more the flexibility, security. In a way this is RESERVE
ANALYSIS
• Avoid such a situation by exploring the possibility of fast tracking on any near critical path, or even
introducing a dummy activity on the critical path as a reserve margin; a dummy activity, of say 8,
would help eliminate the other two near critical paths 17

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Critical Path Method – MC Challenges when Multiple Paths Near

Critical … 2/2
4 8 5 7 8
D E G H C
Start
6 7 5 End
A F B

Paths Duration
MEhsanSaeed

Start-D-E-G-H-C-End 32
Start-D-F-G-H-C-End 31
3 Near Critical Paths
Start-D-F-B-End 16
Start-A-F-G-H-C-End 33
Start-A-F-B-End 18

• Another peculiar case in which near critical paths a number of common activities; in such a case the
three near critical paths may be considered as one critical path. In any case, fast tracking on any
near critical path, or even introducing a dummy activity on the critical path as a reserve margin,
would not be of much help in any way

18

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9
Performance Review
Performance reviews measure, compare, and analyze schedule
performance against the Schedule Baseline such as actual start and
finish dates, percent complete, and remaining duration for work in
progress

Trend Analysis
▪ Uses mathematical models to forecast future outcomes based on
historical results
▪ Examines graphically the project performance over time to determine
whether performance is improving or deteriorating
▪ Monitors performance to date and comparing to future performance
goals in the form of completion dates
▪ Forms part of BurnUp/BurnDown Charts and EVA

MEhsanSaeed 19

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Project Management Information System (PMIS)

▪ PMIS includes scheduling software that provides the ability to track
Planned Dates versus Actual Dates, to report Variances to and
progress made against the Schedule Baseline, and to Forecast the
effects of changes to the Project Schedule Model
▪ Example MSPROJECT, PRIMAVERA, PROJECT SCHEDULER, WELCOM etc

Resource Optimization
Resource optimization techniques involve the scheduling of Activities
and the Resources required by those activities while taking into
consideration both the Resource Availability and the Project Time.
Achieved by:
▪ Resource Levelling
▪ Resource Smoothing

MEhsanSaeed 20

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10
 Resource Levelling … 1/3
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3
A R1: 8 hrs
R2: 8 hrs - Activity C dependent
Start on Activities A & B
B R1: 8 hrs - Duration 2 Days, but
- R1 over-allocated

C R2: 8 hrs

- Over-allocation of R1
A R1: 8 hrs resolved by delaying
R2: 8 hrs Activities B & C by one
Start day each
- New Duration 3 Days
B R1: 8 hrs
- This is Resource
Levelling
C R2: 8 hrs

- Here Resource Levelling has been achieved by applying Lag on Activity B

- The same result would be achieved if Activity B is put in FS dependency
MEhsanSaeed to Activity A, as indicated by the dotted line 21

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Resource Levelling … 2/3

• Adjustment of Start & Finish Dates to produce a Resource Limited

Schedule, by applying LAGs, adjusting DEPENDENCIES etc
• Lengthens the Schedule & increases Cost to deal with a limited
amount of Resources, Resource Availability and other Resource
Constraints
• Also caters to situation where lengthening of Schedule is preferred
to hiring Resources
• Downside:
a. Can cause change in the Critical Path or generate Near Critical
Paths
b. Lengthens the Schedule & increases Cost

MEhsanSaeed 22

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 Resource Levelling … 3/3

• “Lag” applied to a dependent activity in an SS or FF dependency is

akin to Resource Levelling, in terms of effects

A to A
Lag
B B

An SS Dependency The same SS Dependency

with Lag applied to B

Lag
A to A

B B

An FF Dependency The same FF Dependency

with Lag applied to B
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Resource Smoothing
• A technique that adjusts the activities of a Schedule Model such that
the requirements for Resources on the Project do not exceed certain
Predefined Source Limits; consider the following the Resources Reqts:
10 10 10 10
Short/Hire
8 8 8 8

6 6 6 Smoothing 6

4 4 4 4

2 2 2 2

0 0 0 0

• The Resources have been capped at 5, considering the Float of the

Activities, and ensuring that the completion dates are not changed,
thereby maintaining the integrity of the Critical Path
• For periods requiring more than 5 resources, shortfall would be hired.
For periods requiring less than 5 resources, the extra resources would
be employed on other activities
• Critical Path is not changed MEhsanSaeed 24

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 Schedule Compression - Crashing
Schedule compression techniques are used to find ways to bring
project activities that are behind into alignment with the plan by Fast
Tracking or Crashing the Schedule for the Remaining Work
Crashing
x days x/2 days
R1, R2,
R1, R2
R3, R4

• Adding or adjusting resources in activities on the Critical Path in

order to compress the schedule while maintaining the original
Project Scope
• Trades Time for Money
• Downside: Increased Costs (additional resources have to be paid,
and possibly Risk (skill/ability/efficiency of the additional resources)

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Schedule Compression - Fast Tracking

2 days 2 days
A A
3 days 3 days
B B (Proj Dur: 5 days)
2 days
(Proj Dur: 7 days) C C
2 days

• A schedule compression technique in which activities or phases

normally done in series, or planned in series, are performed in
parallel for at least a portion of their duration
• Downside: Often results in Rework (Cost), hiring additional
Resources (Cost), increasing Risk and requiring more attention to
Communication
• Fast Tracking also achieved by applying “Lead” to the dependent
activity in an FS dependency
2 days
A A
3 days
B 2 days
B (Proj Dur: 5 days)
(Proj Dur: 7 days) C C
2 days
MEhsanSaeed
Lead 26

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 Leads & Lags … 1/2
• Applied during Network Analysis to find ways to:
- bring Project Activities that are behind into alignment with the
Plan, (Leads) or
- make adjustments to the Start or Finish Dates of Activities to
meet certain technical or other requirements (Lags)
• Lead Amount of time a Successor (Dependent) activity can be
advanced with respect to a Predecessor activity. Akin to Fast Tracking
• Lag Amount of time a Successor (Dependent) activity can be delayed
with respect to a Predecessor Activity. Akin to Resource Levelling
Example 1: On a New Office Building project, Landscaping can be adjusted to
start before the Exterior Work of the building is completed by increasing the
Lead time in the relationship
Example 2: On a Report Writing project, Technical Writing Team can adjust the
start of Editing the Draft after the document is written, by eliminating or
decreasing Lag time
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Leads & Lags … 2/2 MEhsanSaeed 28

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

18
FS

10

18
FS-8

10
Lead
Consider the following two activities in FS dependency, with a Total Dur of 28 days. Rather
than wait for the Draft to complete, what can be done to complete the two activities in, say,
20 days? Ans: Apply LEAD on Dep Activity. How much? Draw or Calculate
0 18 0 18
Lead
Write Draft: 18 d Write Draft: 24 d =New-Prev Dur
FS-8 (Lead)
=20-(18+10)
Edit Draft: 10 d Edit Draft: 10 d =-8
18 28 10 20 Note: FS-8=SS+10

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 What-If Scenario Analysis … 1/3
• Akin to Risk Management
• Provides a method of indirect ‘Schedule Control’ through Risk
Management
• An analytical technique that evaluates scenarios in order to predict
their Effect (+ve or –ve) on Project Objectives
• It is used to assess the various scenarios guided by the output from the
Project Risk Management processes to bring the schedule model into
alignment with the project management plan and approved baseline
• It is an analysis of the question: “What if the situation represented by
scenario ‘X’ happens?”
MEhsanSaeed

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What-If Scenario Analysis … 2/3

• In a Wedding Project, an Event Manger may think of following
situations for an inter-city barat:
- What if a dulha’s dress does not fit?
- What if the buses do not arrive?
- What if a barat vehicle drops out or goes amiss?
- What if dacoits greet the wedding party enroute?
MEhsanSaeed

- What if buggy breaks down or does not turn up?

- What if the band does not turn up?
- What if barat reaches late?
- What if bride walas delay the food?
- What if the guests get food poisoning?
• The event manager will prepare contingency plans for each of these
scenarios
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 What-If Scenario Analysis … 3/3
In General,
• Schedule Network Analysis is performed using Schedule to compute
difference scenarios such as delays in major component delivery,
extension of specific engineering durations, force majeure etc
• Outcome of analysis used to assess the Feasibility of the Project
Schedule under adverse conditions, preparing Contingency &
Response Plans to overcome or mitigate the impact of the

MEhsanSaeed
unexpected situations
• Often, there is no way to meet the Schedule if these scenarios occur.
But it always makes sense to try to understand the impact they will
have on the Schedule

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Summary - Options to Control Project Schedule

Preventive (at Planning Stage):
• Accurate Estimates of Activities’ Resources & Durations, using multiple
techniques (at least 3) for Estimation of Durations
• Identification and Planning of all Possible Risks
• Adequate Reserves
• Putting some activities doable in Parallel into Series* (Discretionary
Dependencies/Soft Logic)
MEhsanSaeed

Corrective (at Executing Stage):

• Fast Tracking
• Putting * activities back in parallel
• Leads
• Crashing
• Trimming Scope
• Lowering Grade (with the permission of Customer); alternative
Procurement options for items not-in-stock 32

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