Alpha 0.250 Omega = 0.

05
Beta 0.100

t x(t) a^(t) b^(t) x^(t,t+1) e(t) e(t)^2 ABS et MSE ABSe(t)/A(t)

January 0 28 28.00 1.35 29.35 4.20
February 1 27 28.76 1.29 30.05 -2.35 5.52 2.35 4.27 9%
March 2 30 30.04 1.29 31.33 -0.05 0.00 0.05 4.05 0%
April 3 34 32.00 1.36 33.35 2.67 7.13 2.67 4.21 8%
May 4 32 33.02 1.32 34.34 -1.35 1.83 1.35 4.09 4%
June 5 33 34.00 1.29 35.29 -1.34 1.79 1.34 3.97 4%
July 6 32 34.47 1.21 35.68 -3.29 10.85 3.29 4.32 10%
August 7 36 35.76 1.22 36.97 0.32 0.10 0.32 4.11 1%
September 8 33 35.98 1.12 37.10 -3.97 15.78 3.97 4.69 12%
October 9 36 36.82 1.09 37.91 -1.10 1.20 1.10 4.52 3%
SUM 16.45 0.51

MAD 1.8279
MAPE 6%
RMSE 2.2164
40

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Alpha 0.250 Omega = 0.05
Beta 0.100

t x(t) a^(t) b^(t) x^(t,t+1) e(t) e(t)^2 ABS et ABSe(t)/A(t)

January 0 28 28.00 1.35 29.35
February 1 27 28.76 1.29 30.05 -2.35 5.52 2.35 9%
March 2 30 30.04 1.29 31.33 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0%
April 3 34 32.00 1.36 33.35 2.67 7.13 2.67 8%
May 4 32 33.02 1.32 34.34 -1.35 1.83 1.35 4%
June 5 33 34.00 1.29 35.29 -1.34 1.79 1.34 4%
July 6 32 34.47 1.21 35.68 -3.29 10.85 3.29 10%
August 7 36 35.76 1.22 36.97 0.32 0.10 0.32 1%
September 8 33 35.98 1.12 37.10 -3.97 15.78 3.97 12%
October 9 36 36.82 1.09 37.91 -1.10 1.20 1.10 3%
SUM 16.45 0.51 𝑥 ̂_(𝑡,𝑡+𝜏)=𝑎 ̂_
MAD 1.8279
MAPE 6%
RMSE 2.2164 𝑎 ̂_𝑡 "= α" 𝑥_𝑡+(1−𝛼
1-MAPE 94% (𝑎 ̂_(𝑡−1)+𝑏 ̂_(𝑡−1)
𝑏 ̂_𝑡= β(𝑎 ̂_𝑡−𝑎 ̂_(𝑡−
+(1−β)𝑏 ̂_(𝑡−1)
 𝑥 ̂_(𝑡,𝑡+𝜏)=𝑎 ̂_𝑡+𝜏𝑏 ̂_𝑡

 ̂_𝑡 "= α" 𝑥_𝑡+(1−𝛼)

𝑎 ̂_(𝑡−1)+𝑏 ̂_(𝑡−1))
 ̂_𝑡= β(𝑎 ̂_𝑡−𝑎 ̂_(𝑡−1) )
+(1−β)𝑏 ̂_(𝑡−1)
 Price per Gross profits per
SKU Item Description Weekly Demand % %Acum
unit month
BG005 Bagel con queso crema 4300 3.2 13760 19% 19%
BG002 Bagel con Bacon y huevo 2300 3.3 7590 10% 29%
BG004 Bagel con jamon y queso 2500 2.8 7000 10% 39%
BG006 Bagel con mantequilla 2140 2.3 4922 7% 46%
BG003 Bagel con aguacate 1100 4.1 4510 6% 52%
BG014 Bagel de chocolate 1350 3.2 4320 6% 58%
BG015 Bagel de frambuesa 1003 4.1 4112.3 6% 63%
BG013 Bagel fresas y crema batida 1148 3.51 4029.48 6% 69%
BG001 Bagel con jalea de guayaba 1550 2.5 3875 5% 74%
BG010 Bagel con avena 1250 2.8 3500 5% 79%
BG017 Bagel con mermelada de uva 1145 2.9 3320.5 5% 83%
BG016 Bagel con mermelada de piña 1250 2.1 2625 4% 87%
BG008 Bagel de frutas 1100 2.3 2530 3% 91%
BG011 Bagel con salmón 562 4.1 2304.2 3% 94%
BG009 Bagel de canela 980 2.1 2058 3% 97%
BG007 Bagel con pasas 950 1.5 1425 2% 98%
BG012 Bagel con gallopinto 346 3.22 1114.12 2% 100%
Sum 72995.6
 Bagel Queso Crema
Actual Chart Title
t DOW Demand
100 M 62
350
101 T 91 300
102 W 163
103 R 129 250
104 F 196
200
105 M 68
106 T 104 150
107 W 193
100
108 R 147
109 F 226 50
110 M 80
0
111 T 118 M T W R F M T W R F M T W R F M T W R F
112 W 201 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119
113 R 175
114 F 274
115 M 92
116 T 142
117 W 246
118 R 187
119 F 290
 T W R F
5 116 117 118 119