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225-239
RESEARCH NOTE
-
MAPPING THE NORWEGIAN POLITICAL
SPACE
Some Findings From an Expert Survey
ABSTRACT
It has long been common to discuss politics using spatial metaphors. The
use of the left-right ideological axis can be traced back to the French revol-
ution (Laponce, 1981; Demker, 1996). More recently, political scientists
have begun to use multi-dimensional conceptions of political space as a
basis for general theories of political conflict. Theoretical models incor-
porating spatial conceptions of politics have been used to predict coalition
1354-0688(200004 )6:2;225-239;011414
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RAY AND NARUD: NORWEGIAN POLITICAL SPACE
The questionnaire format was similar to that used by Laver and Hunt
(1992).1 We selected a limited set of policy scales, which were felt to capture
the important cleavages in the Norwegian party system while providing a
basis for comparison with earlier data. The policy dimensions employed in
our survey, along with those measured by Laver and Hunt, are presented in
Table 1. Four of the dimensions included in Laver and Hunt's survey were
also included in the present survey, while a fifth (abortion and homo-
sexuality) was included as two separate dimensions. Two dimensions used
by Laver and Hunt were included in somewhat altered forms. Positions on
East-West relations were measured in 1989 as relations with the Soviet
Union. This was replaced by a question on the relationship with NATO. The
Laver and Hunt question on public ownership of the means of production
was replaced with a question on government regulation of market forces.
One of Laver and Hunt's dimensions, church-state relations, was simply
dropped from our survey, while three new dimensions were added: immi-
gration, European integration and general left-right placement.
We identified 42 Norwegian political scientists who specialized in con-
temporary Norwegian politics or in party systems and electoral competition.
Questionnaires were mailed out to these scholars in January 1998. The
respondents were asked to provide judgements of party position and issue
salience for eight parties on 11 scales. After 2 weeks, a reminder was sent
to those individuals who had not returned their questionnaires. In all, 30
respondents returned completed questionnaires, giving a response rate of 72
percent.
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PARTY POLITICS 6(2)
Because the raw data gave us little reason to suspect systematic differences
across experts in their use of the scales, we use the mean judgement as our
estimate of party positions. 2 This is the most transparent aggregation func-
tion, permitting the use of the standard deviation of expert judgements as a
measure of their internal consistency. Summary data on the standard devi-
ations from the present survey and for prior research on Norway are pre-
sented in Table 2. Given the variety of scale sizes employed in prior research,
it is most meaningful to compare standard deviations expressed as a per-
centage of the scale range. According to this measure, the internal consis-
tency of our experts was quite comparable to that of other expert surveys.
Experts showed the most consensus in their evaluations of party positions
on relatively salient dimensions. The average standard deviations for judge-
ments of party position and issue importance on each dimension are pre-
sented in Table 3. As the table indicates, experts were quite consistent in
their judgements of party positions on the left-right dimension, as well as
on salient policy areas such as taxes, regulation, support for rural areas and
European integration.
Agreement among experts was somewhat lower for the other policy
dimensions, and there was a surprising amount of disagreement on the
dimension of decentralization. The question on decentralization was
intended to measure party positions on geographic decentralization; in this
context, the concentration of power and resources in the capital, Oslo. A
closer examination of individual responses on the decentralization question,
as well as informal conversations with some of the 'anomalous' experts,
revealed that some had interpreted the decentralization question as referring
to the transfer of power from the public sector to the private sector and civil
society. Factor analysis techniques were used to determine more sys-
tematically which experts had interpreted this dimension in this way.3 The
four experts who appeared to interpret the decentralization dimension 'ver-
tically' as opposed to geographically were excluded and party positions on
this dimension were recalculated. This resulted in an increase both in the
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RAY AND NARUD: NORWEGIAN POLITICAL SPACE
The 'saliency theory' of party competition claims that political parties build
up their support on issues that they have made their 'own' (Budge and Farlie,
1983).5 Their preferences relative to these issues determine their policy pos-
itions in the policy space. 'Directional theory' presumes that issues repre-
sent a choice between two sides of a question and that party competition
takes place on the basis of centrifugal forces (Rabinowitz and Macdonald,
1989; Listhaug et aI., 1990; Macdonald et aI., 1991, 1998). Voters evalu-
ate the party signaling the strongest stand in their ideological direction as
the party 'best' situated on that dimension. Both of these theories suggest
that parties do not all compete on all possible policy dimensions. They
propose instead that one important aspect of any party system is the associ-
ation of certain issues with specific political parties.
The data from the expert survey allow us to map out the pattern of issue
ownership in the Norwegian political system. Drawing upon directional
and saliency theories, we use issue importance and positional extremity as
229
PARTY POLITICS 6(2)
in Norway, the Labor Party, is rated as the most interested party. Likewise,
the Liberals fail to emerge with any distinctive issue profile.
An analysis of the extremity of party positions reveals five patterns of
opposition across these 11 dimensions. The Socialist Left anchors one of the
extremes in three of these patterns of opposition, standing opposite the
Progress Party on the general left-right scale, as well as on taxes-services,
market regulation, environmental protection and immigration. The Social-
ist Left opposes the Christian People's Party on moral questions (abortion
and homosexuality) and stands opposite to the Conservatives on the issue
of NATO.6 The other two patterns of opposition involve the Center Party.
The Center Party and the Conservatives take the most distinctive stands on
the issues of European integration and decentralization, while the Center
Party opposes the Progress Party over the issue of aid to rural areas. On no
issue do the Liberals or Labor hold either extreme position. Labor's elec-
toral success, given its weak issue profile, suggests that voters may be evalu-
ating the party on some policy dimension not included in our survey, or on
non-policy grounds. Prior research suggests that much of the support for
Labor is based upon the party's reputation for competence in government
(see e.g. Aardal and Valen, 1995).
The discussion above suggests that issue extremity and issue salience are
related. This can be demonstrated by correlating a party's extremity on an
issue (measured by its distance from the mid-point of the scale) with the
experts' evaluations of the importance of that issue to the party. These cor-
relations are also presented in Table 4. For all but one of the issue scales,
extremity is positively related to issue importance and eight of these ten posi-
tive correlations are statistically significant at the .05 level or better. These
relationships are all the more impressive given that there are only seven
cases.
factor, which is most strongly associated with moral issues such as abortion
and homosexuality and accounts for a non-trivial amount of the variation
in party positions. A plot of the Norwegian political space using these two
underlying factors demonstrates the importance of both these dimensions
for contemporary political life in Norway. As Figure 1 indicates, the main
parties of the current governing coalition - the Center Party and the Chris-
tian People's Party - are distinguished from the other Norwegian parties by
their position on this second dimension.
The change in dimensionality between 1989 and 1998 cannot be
explained away as an artefact of the differences in dimensions included in
the two expert surveys. When the factor analysis is repeated with only the
1.5
E Lab.
.!!! 10 Red .
• •
~ Sos.
• Con.
g .5 •
co.... 0.0 Lib.
0
•
~ -.5
N -10
.... Gen .
0
t> -1.5
•
Chr.
~
u.. -2.0 •
-15 -10 -.5 0.0 .5 1.0 1.5
The most dramatic political event in Norway during the 1990s was the 1994
referendum on membership of the European Union. In 1989 the question of
EU membership had only just reappeared on the political agenda. During
the 5 years preceding the referendum, a strong anti-membership coalition
was formed which brought together some of the traditional parties of the
periphery, in particular the Center Party, with the parties of the left, especi-
ally the Socialist Left Party. These parties cooperated extensively during the
anti-EU campaign, even coordinating their positions before parliamentary
debates (Hjelseth, 1995). Much of the change from 1989 to 1998 can be
attributed to shifts in the positions of these two parties.
This can be demonstrated by comparing the positions of these two parties
on two specific policy dimensions, one normally associated with the econ-
omic left-right cleavage, the other with the center-periphery cleavage.
Figure 2 presents the positions of the Norwegian parties on these two dimen-
sions in 1989 and 1998. The 1989 data indicate a relatively weak relation-
ship between support for increased government services and support for
rural areas. While some parties, such as the Conservatives and the Progress
Party, are both on the economic right and in favor of urban interests, the
ffi20
-e 18
=? 16
c:o 14
~l.ab.
12
•
~ 10 sos.
0
8
co.... 6 - --
2 4
~
e 2
O~ __~__~~__~__~~
Gen. Gen .
• __~__~____~__~____~__~ o0
• 1998
1989
o 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
234
RAY AND NARUD, NORWEGIAN POLITICAL SPACE
main leftist parties (Socialist Left and Labor) are in the middle of the
urban-rural dimension, while the rural Center Party is in the middle of the
left-right dimension. Party positions on these two issues in 1989 correlate
at only .49.
By 1998, this pattern had changed dramatically. The overall correlation
between positions on these two dimensions is now .85. The largest shifts in
party position involve the Socialist Left, which has adopted a more pro-rural
position, and the Center Party, which has adopted a more leftist position.
This convergence in the positions of the most rural and most leftist parties
accounts for the migration of some issues long associated with the
center-periphery cleavage over to the left-right cleavage. Indeed, this propo-
sition is supported by survey material from the 1997 general election, which
reveals that the EU dimension corresponded closely to the left-right pattern
of the policy space (Narud and Oscarsson, 1999).7
The magnitude and statistical significance of changes in party position are
indicated in Table 7. The most important shifts may be summarized as
follows.
• Compared to 1989 there has been a clear radicalization of the Center
Party, with an increase in the salience of economic issues. In 1998 the
parties of the right, the Conservatives and the Progress Party, define an
economic neo-liberal pole in politics, in opposition to the Socialist Left
and the Center Party. 8
• The Christian People's Party has increased the emphasis on moral values,
with a monopoly on moral issues in 1998.
• Labor and the Liberals are losing their distinctiveness and have drifted
towards the center of the policy space.
Conclusion
Center and Christian People's parties have moved away from the Con-
servative Party, and cooperation among the non-socialist parties is imposs-
ible. The largest and most cohesive block of parties appears to consist of the
Conservatives, the Progress Party, and the Labor Party. However, the tra-
ditional rivalry between the Labor and Conservative parties, as well as
norms against collaboration with the Progress Party, make this set of parties
a highly unlikely basis for a governing coalition. The interplay between tra-
ditional rivalries and current party positions has made coalition formation
much more complex. This situation may be a temporary artefact of the
highly disruptive EU debate, and the parties may shift back towards a
simpler two-block model. Alternately, this fragmentation may be a perma-
nent feature of the Norwegian party system.
Notes
The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the Center for Advanced Study
of the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters.
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PARTY POLITICS 6(2)
others concerning certain policy areas. For this reason, during the electoral
campaign, candidates (or parties) are likely to gain the most by advertising on
those issues over which they can claim 'ownership'.
6 Note that we exclude from this analysis the Red Election Alliance, a small political
formation which lost its only seat in parliament in 1997. If this tiny party is
included in the analysis, it replaces the larger Socialist Left Party on all but the
environmental policy dimensions.
7 The analysis by Narud and Oscarsson (1999) relied on multi-dimensional un-
folding analysis of party evaluations. They found that the second most important
dimension was a moral-religious dimension associated with the promotion of
Christian values.
8 Again, our results correspond to findings based upon survey data. Analyses of the
1997 general election demonstrated that the Center Party had a much more leftist
position in 1997 than it had in the mid-1980s. When asked to place the parties
on a scale from left to right, the voters have traditionally placed the Center Party
to the right of Labor (see e.g. Valen, 1981, 1990). In 1997 the two parties had
swapped positions, and the Center Party was placed to the left of Labor (Narud,
1999).
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