Professional Documents
Culture Documents
MARKETING
Electoral Strategies and
Political Marketing
Edited by
Shaun Bowler
Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science,
University of California
and
David M. Farrell
Jean Monnet Lecturer in European Politics,
Department of Government, University of Manchester
Editorial matter and selection © Shaun Bowler and David M. Farrell 1992
Text ©The Macmillan Press Ltd 1992
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1992 978-0-333-55894-2
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Index 237
v
List of Figures and Tables
Figures
Tables
vi
Notes on the Contributors
Lars Bille is a senior lecturer at the University of Copenhagen. He has
published widely on Danish parties and elections. Currently he is
participating in a research project on 'Danish Politics in the Process of
Change'.
vii
viii Notes on the Contributors
SHAUN BOWLER
DAVID M. FARRELL
X
1 The Study of Election
Campaigning
Shaun Bowler and David M. Farrell
acting on it. The more efficient the system of feedback and the greater
the extent to which it is listened to by the campaigners, then the more
rationally they are acting.
Second, in a campaign the main structure of relationships is between
the 'client' (politician or party) and the 'media people' who are seeking
to sell a product to an audience (the voters). This relationship fits
somewhere between two extremes. On the one extreme, in the case of a
rationally organised campaign, the client is prepared to delegate to the
media people, listening to their advice and giving them scope to
operate independently. On the other extreme, in a campaign which
is not organised rationally, the client dominates the media people,
telling them what to do.
Third, campaign goals can also vary between two extremes. A
rationally organised campaign has the one main goal of winning the
election, virtually at any cost. Any other goal (such as policy
consistency, or attempting to change the voters' agenda) suggests less
rationality.
Rose tests the framework by examining the campaigns of the three
British parties, as well as those of some of the major interest groups
which were trying to influence the outcome in their favour. In no
single case did a campaign fit his model of rationality. Rose has similar
findings in a shorter review of election campaigning in the United
States. He concludes (ibid., pp. 246-7) that 'irrational campaign
behaviour is a persisting feature of campaign politics everywhere'.
There are some points which can be made in criticism of Rose's
argument. There are times when there could be good, rational reasons
as to why a politician might choose to ignore feedback. Not least of
these is thl\t party leaders ('clients') must pay attention to the opinions
of party activists and internal party processes. Furthermore, it is not
always clear that the kinds of feedback available during the course of a
campaign will reduce the uncertainty of party leaders. Although
campaigning may well reduce uncertainty among voters over where
the parties stand, feedback may provide conflicting messages to party
leaders. Under some circumstances, then, acting upon feedback may
well be more an act of panic than of rationality. A final criticism is the
fact that Rose is simply operationalising Downs' US-based model in
the European context with no account taken of some important
differences between the two; most notably the greater role for policy
or ideological consistency in the European party-centred context as
opposed to the US candidate-centred context (Budge and Farlie, 1983;
Robertson, 1976).
Shaun Bowler and David M. Farrell 5
Second, electoral laws and systems can be seen to affect the degree
of centralisation of campaign strategies. Proportional representation
(PR) list systems tend to promote greater campaign centralisation than
do plurality or PR single transferable vote systems (Katz, 1980).
Electoral laws also affect campaign timing. Countries with fixed
electoral dates give the parties greater opportunity to prepare their
campaigns.
Under this category we can also group the wide variety of laws
which regulate campaign finance. The availability of campaign finance
determines how professional and/or how corrupt campaigns are
(Alexander (ed.), 1989a). German and Israeli parties, for example,
are generously subsidised by the state facilitating very expensive
campaign practices. In all some twenty-one countries operate a
system of direct public funding of political parties (Alexander,
1989b). Legal restrictions more generally determine what form
campaigning can take. In Britain restrictions on financial expenditure
at the constituency level limit the amount of local campaigning. No
such restrictions exist at the national level. In the USA campaign
financing restrictions have largely been behind the rise in importance
of PACs (Luntz, 1988; Sabato, 1985).
Third, media systems act as important communication vehicles for
the parties and candidates. In most European countries there are
restrictions on the broadcasting media with regard to 'balance' and
over access for direct advertising by the parties. The television 'spots'
beloved of American campaign strategists are for the most part not
available to European or Australasian strategists, though in Germany
and Italy the removal of the state broadcasting monopoly has
facilitated the use of television 'spots' by the parties on the private
television channels. In Japan campaigning activity, denied access to
television, centres on meetings and the extremely expensive provision
of food and gifts to voters (Curtis, 1988).
Fourth, a distinction can be drawn between types of party systems
where the focus is on the number of parties in the system. In a two-
party system it is feasible for one party to become a clear winner:
campaigns, then, can be seen very easily in terms of an attempt to 'win'
an election. By contrast in multiparty systems the parties have to make
allowances for possible coalition partners and so temper their
campaign messages. In predominant party systems one would expect
to find some mix of the previous two: that is one large party hoping for
a clear win and other smaller parties which are dependent on each
other to gain power.
Shaun Bowler and David M. Farrell 9
A number of different points fall under this rubric. There is the overall
approach which the party has decided to adopt. In the case of an
incumbent one might expect a defensive mode, particularly where the
government has been unpopular. However, there are instances where a
governing party has been able to turn the tables on the opponent,
adopting an aggressive mode and sometimes even forcing the oppo-
nent onto the defensive: the US Republicans in 1984; the British
Conservatives in 1983 and 1987. A related point is whether the party
adopts a positive or negative emphasis. Often the campaign period is
divided into positive and negative parts. The opposition party may
begin its campaign attacking the failures of the government and
pointing out the problems of the national economy. Then, in the
second phase, the party moves into its positive mode, stressing a bright
future and great gains to be made by it 'when in government'. This
negative-positive tactic can just as easily be adopted by the governing
party, as was shown again most effectively by the British Conserva-
tives and the American Republicans in their campaigns of the 1980s.
Crucial to a successful campaign is a well-conceived and well-
executed campaign focus, or what the marketing literature calls
'product policy'. The political product in an election consists of three
distinct elements: party image, leader image and the manifesto
proposals or favoured issues of the party.
Party image includes both the traditional image of the party (for
instance as representative of the working class, of Catholic voters, of a
specific ethnic minority) and the specific image which a party seeks to
promote in a given election. Equally the party's manifesto is designed
both to take account of the party's traditional standpoints on certain
issues and also to take on board campaign-specific issues (Budge and
Farlie, 1983). In both cases the two will not be necessarily the same,
16 The Study of Election Campaigning
Quite apart from which rank order is chosen an effort is also made
to present a coherent, single focus embodying the product policy triad.
For instance, the British Conservatives in 1983 subliminally promoted
a 'Falklands factor' image with a focus in its campaign messages on
'discipline and direction' and appropriate photo opportunities of
Margaret Thatcher (such as one in front of an aircraft hanger). The
extent to which a party adopts a coherent product policy and
promotes it consistently is an important indicator of a successful
campaign (Farrell and Wortmann, 1987).
Strategists give careful consideration to questions of timing and
pacing of a campaign, trying to maximise media interest and voter
support, being careful not to overexhaust the campaign organisation
and principal candidate(s), determining at what stage the campaign
should peak, the switch between positive and negative modes, and so
on. It could be that these plans may never come to fruition due to
candidate gaffes or other campaign incidents. If that is the case, the
degree to which it can successfully adapt to unforeseen situations
becomes a measure of the campaign's professionalism. The aspect of
the campaign focused upon here, then, is the content of the campaign
message and the parties method(s) of communicating it. In their
communication activities the strategists will be seeking to set the
campaign agenda, taking the initiative and forcing both their oppo-
nents and the media into a reactive mode. This could take the form of
introducing 'themes of the day' at morning press conferences. But there
are alternative means. A distinction can be drawn between the 'indirect'
and 'direct' communication activities of a campaign. Indirect commu-
nication activities are the means by which the party seeks maximum
positive media coverage through public relations activities, personal
selling and sales promotion. These typically take the form of press
conferences, the leader's tour, special events, photo opportunities, and
so on. Direct communication activities involve efforts to bypass the
media and communicate directly with voters through the use of
advertisements, posters, election broadcasts, election literature and
campaign gimmickry. The strategists will be seeking to combine both
communication activities in an effort to sell their message effectively.
Netherlands), New Zealand and the United States. They are written by
country specialists who have gathered material through a series of in-
depth interviews with campaign strategists. So far as possible the
emphasis throughout is on using the framework outlined above to
describe the campaign. Each chapter begins with an outline of the
particular national context in which the election occurred. In virtually
all cases the contributors are writing about party campaigning in
parliamentary elections. The two exceptions, where the analysis
diverges somewhat from the common framework, are France and
the USA. In the first case, the chapter examines the 1988 presidential
campaign which, by its nature, was candidate-centred. In the second
case, on the 1988 US congressional elections, Katz and Kolodny are
writing in the context of a system which gives a much less significant
role to parties in the electoral process.
Chapter II involves an examination of voter responses to party
campaigns, assessing the question of how to measure the 'effects' of
campaigning. In the concluding chapter, we review the nine case
studies and explore the contrasts and similarities between them,
isolating patterns of contemporary campaign styles.
Notes
l. This phrase was used by Timothy Crouse (1972) to describe the campaign
journalists accredited to US presidential candidates. For a recent British
example of this genre see Tyler (1987).
2. It is difficult to be sure of exactly how many books have been published in
this tradition. The more prominent ones are: Agranoff (1976b); Bernays
(ed.) (1955); Chagall (1981); Chartrand (1972); Hiebert eta/. (eds) (1975);
Napolitan (1972); Shadegg (1964; 1972); Steinberg (1976a; b).
3. We should also mention the numerous studies on particular aspects of
campaigning. These include: on information technology (Boim, 1984;
Chartrand, 1972; Tobe, 1984); direct mail (Clark, 1981; Haggerty, 1979;
Harris, 1982; O'Shaughnessy and Peele, 1985; Snyder, 1982);
advertisements (Diamond and Bates, 1984; 1985; Eriksson, 1937; Hof-
stetter and Zukin, 1979; Jamieson, 1984; Shy1es, 1984a; b; Witherspoon,
1984); slogans/rhetoric (Atkinson, 1984; Kurjian, 1984; Rowland and
Payne, 1984); leaders' tours (Mintz, 1985); consultants (Kelley, 1956;
Peele, 1982; Pitchell, 1958; Ross, 1959; Sabato, 1981); market research
(Abrams, 1964; Roll, 1982; West, 1984); campaign debates (Martel, 1983).
4. We are assuming that there is a desire to maximise electoral gains, even if
this is at the expense of ideological purity (see Wright, 1971).
Shaun Bowler and David M. Farrell 19
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Cuthright, P. (1963), 'Measuring the Impact of Local Party Activity on the
General Election Vote', Public Opinion Quarterly, 27, pp. 372-86.
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Advanced Industrial Democracies: Realignment or Dealignment? (Prince-
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Diamond, E. and Bates, S. (1984), The Spot: The Rise of Political Advertising
on Television (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press).
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Downs, A. (1957), An Economic Theory of Democracy (New York: Harper &
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Eldersveld, S.J. (1956), 'Experimental Propaganda Techniques and Voting
Behavior', American Political Science Review, 50, pp. 154-65.
Elklit, J. (1991), 'Sub-National Election Campaigns: The Danish Local
Elections ofNovember 1989', Scandinavian Political Studies, 14, pp. 219-39.
Eriksson, E. M. (1937), 'President Jackson's Propaganda Agencies', Pacific
Historical Review 6, pp. 47-57.
Farrell, D. (1986), 'The Strategy to Market Fine Gael in 1981', Irish Political
Studies, l, pp. 1-14.
- - (1989), 'Changes in the European Electoral Process: A Trend Towards
'Americanization'?', Manchester Papers in Politics, no.6f89.
- - and Wortmann, M. (1987), 'Party Strategies in the Electoral Market:
Political Marketing in West Genriany, Britain, and Ireland', European
Journal of Political Research, 15, pp. 297-318.
Gosnell, H. (1927), Getting out the Vote: An Experiment in the Stimulation of
Voting (Chicago: University of Chicago Press).
Graham, R. (1984), Spain: Change of a Nation (London: Michael Joseph).
Haggerty, B. (1979), 'Direct Mail Political Fund Raising', Public Relations
Journal, 35, pp. 10-13.
Harris, P. C. (1982), 'Politics by Mail: A New Platform', The Wharton
Magazine (Fall), pp. 16-19.
Harrop, M. and Miller, W. L. (1987), Elections and Voters: A Comparative
Introduction (Basingstoke: Macmillan).
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Political Image Merchants: Strategies for the Seventies (Washington:
Acropolis Books).
Hofstetter, C. R. and Zukin, C. (1979), 'TV Network Political News and
Advertising in the Nixon and McGovern Campaigns', Journalism Quarterly,
56, pp. 106-15, 152.
Irvine, W. (1987), 'Canada, 1945--1980: Party Platforms and Campaign
Strategies', in I. Budge et a/. (eds), Ideology, Strategy and Party Change
(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).
Jamieson, K. H. (1984), Packaging the Presidency: A History and Criticism of
Presidential Campaign Advertising (Oxford: University Press}.
Shaun Bowler and David M. Farrell 21
Katz, D. and Eldersveld, S. (1961), 'The Impact of Local Party Activity upon
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22 The· Study of Election Campaigning
district where it requires about 3 per cent of the vote). The overall
distortion of the electoral system bas been quite limited since 1971
(Miiller, 1991). The second relevant feature of the electoral system is
that it is a list system with intra-party preference voting. Since 1971
voters have been able to vote directly for one particular candidate
within the party of their choice by writing his or her name on the
ballot paper next to the party name. Even without a cross placed by
the party name these votes count as party votes. Candidates ranked
low on the party list require as many preference votes as it takes to win
a seat in order to be elected. This candidate preference system has not
proven very effective: by 1990 only one candidate had been elected by
this route (Miiller, 1983; 1990).
Since 1975 Austrian parties have received generous state funding for
their public relations. Extra funding for election campaigns was
introduced for the first time in 1990. A total of ATS 112 million
{ATS 20 for each eligible voter) was distributed among those parties
which had applied for the funding at least eight weeks before the
election, based on share of the vote in the previous election. When
state party funding was introduced in 1975 legal restrictions were laid
down for campaign expenditure and renewed for each parliamentary
election until 1986. But these never put a real limit on the parties'
expenditure. The law was not renewed for the 1990 campaign but the
two biggest parties, the Socialists (SPO) and the Peoples' Party (OVP),
worked out a 'fairness' agreement, putting a cap on campaign
expenditure during the last six weeks before the election of ATS 12
million per party, limiting the number of posters, newspaper advertise-
ments and other propaganda materials and also excluding some
particularly expensive propaganda methods (such as universal direct
mailing, or regular colour advertisements in daily newspapers).
The Austrian media are characterised by a very high degree of
concentration (Plasser, 1991). Both radio and televisi1;m are· public
monopolies, the control of which has always been a matter of political
debate between the parties. During election campaigns radio and in
particular television are so closely scrutinised by the parties that they
tend to receive a fair deal in terms of news coverage. All parliamentary
parties have access to radio and television time for election broadcasts
which is distributed according to party strength. No additional time
can be bought for political purposes. The party press, once constitu-
ting about a third of the daily distribution in Austria, has virtually
disappeared in recent years. The non-party press is strongly concen-
trated as shown particularly by the Neue Kronenzeitung whose daily
26 Austria: The 1990 Campaign
scandals most of which had taken place in the past but had only just
been exposed or investigated. Though some OVP politicians were
involved in the scandals it was mainly the SPO that was affected;
indeed, a whole series of high-ranking SPO politicians were forced to
resign (Meth-Cohn and Miiller, 1991). As a result the SPO started the
campaign with a severe handicap. All polls indicated that it would lose
between 3 and 5 per cent of its vote. However, the OVP was not
expected to profit from the Socialists' losses. Since assuming govern-
mental status after the 1986 election its fortunes in the polls had been
declining. Pollsters expected OVP losses of between 6 and 9 per cent of
the vote with the party suffering from its status as the junior partner
and from internal quarrels. It also suffered from being one of the
traditional big and powerful parties. This position did not allow it to
capitalise on the SPO's problems; indeed, voters did not clearly
distinguish between the SPO and OVP in this respect. The SPO's
advantage, however, was the enormous popularity of Chancellor
Vranitzky. Asked for whom they would vote if the Chancellor were
to be elected directly, more than 60 per cent answered Vranitzky. His
opponent from the OVP, Josef Riegler, was preferred by a mere 10 to
18 per cent, while Haider from the FPO appealed to between 10 and 16
per cent of the voters. Even among OVP voters a majority would have
voted for Vranitzky as Chancellor (Miiller, 1990).
It was clear from the outset that no party would be able to win a
majority and govern alone. Thus the parties' coalition preferences
were a major issue during the campaign. The SPO was very clear: it
declared its willingness to continue the coalition with the OVP. This, it
was argued, would be necessary to carry on with the pragmatic policies
of the government for the sake of the country. Alternative coalition
options with the FPO in particular but also with the Greens were
categorically rejected because of the populism of the FPO and the
environmental fundamentalism of the Greens. The OVP also indicated
its preference for a continuation of the grand coalition, but it held
open the option of a coalition with the FPO.
Modern election campaign strategies and techniques such as
professional political advertising, segmentation of the electorate into
target groups, use of TV spots, emphasis on candidate image (paid
media campaign), as well as the professional self-presentation of the
main actors in the mass media (free media campaign), were used for
the first time in 1970. Before this the campaigns consisted primarily of
appeals to the party's own supporters who were mobilised by party
slogans, attacks on political opponents and appeals to ideology and
28 Austria: The 1990 Campaign
loyalty. Since 1970 the parties have had to try reaching the political
expectations, desires and moods of a more mobile electorate. Com-
mercial advertising methods were adapted for this purpose and used to
strengthen the profile of the party or establish a candidate's image.
The planning and development of Austrian electoral campaigns has
become more professional and increasingly oriented towards interna-
tional and in particular US models.
Given the SPO's problems in the recent past, which could not be
denied, the image the party aimed at was that of a party willing and
ready to come to grips with these difficulties. The SPO campaign did
not give much attention to the party as such; rather, it tried to hide it
behind its leading candidate. The image that the campaign strategists
wanted to assign to Vranitzky was that of a statesman rather than a
politician; the idea was to present him as the Federal Chancellor rather
than as the SPO chainnan, as a man above party. Vranitzky was the
only one who appeared in advertisements, SPO posters often displayed
only him, even without the name of the party. The aim was to turn the
parliamentary election into a referendum for the chancellorship, to
profit from Vranitzky's popularity.
Although the SPO deliberately focused on leader image, the fact
remained that this was an election to parliament not to the Chancel-
lor's office and the ballot papers contained the names of the parties
not those of their respective Chancellor candidates. In order to cope
with this problem the SPO redefined the instrument of the preference
vote. A massive campaign for preference votes for Vranitzky was
planned and implemented towards the end of the campaign. As
opposed to traditional preference votes, these were not required to
elect Vranitzky to parliament since he occupied the top place of his
Wolfgang C. Muller and Fritz Plasser 35
party's list in all electoral districts. The argument given for this
preference vote campaign was that a large number of preference
votes would strengthen the Chancellor in particular vis-a-vis possible
attempts to remove him from his position by an OVP-FPO coalition.
A second subliminal argument was that a lot of preference votes would
also further strengthen Vranitzky within his own party. They would
help him to reform the SPO according to his proposals. The strategic
preference vote campaign had some consequences: it personalised the
election campaign still further; it opened an option for the voters to
differentiate their electoral choice by either electing Vranitzky, or the
SPO, or both.
In terms of its policy profile the SPO could rely on some well-
established strengths, in particular in the fields of social and economic
policies. While social policy is a typical Social Democratic policy
domain economic policy is a more competitive field. The SPO had
been very successful in receiving credit for its economic policy
competence during the heyday of 'Austro-Keynesianism' (until the
mid-1980s), but had suffered from the subsequent economic problems,
in particular the financial breakdown of the nationalised industries.
However, Vranitzky, a former banker, and the two SPO ministers with
economic portfolios, Rudolf Streicher and Ferdinand Lacina, had
received most of the credit for the good economic performance of
the country under the new grand coalition. Thus the SPO in 1990 was
seen as the more competent party on the economy. This image had to
be preserved or even strengthened during the campaign. The SPO
aimed at two further goals: it wanted to be seen as the party of
modernisation and the party for environmental protection. In respect
of the former it aimed at presenting itself as the party that would
modernise the economic and political structure of Austria and make
the country ready for European Community membership. In respect
of the latter it tried to put forward an image as the realistic
environmental protection party (as opposed to the 'utopian' Greens
and the merely symbolic policies of the other parties). In general the
SPO promised a continuation of the government's pragmatic policies
which it argued necessitated a further term for the grand coalition. The
SPO was highly successful in putting its plans into practice. Through-
out the campaign it stuck to the blueprint and succeeded in turning the
election into a plebiscite about who should be the Chancellor, a result
to which the strategies of the other parties also contributed. Unforseen
problems such as scandals within the party were solved quickly by
removing the people involved rather than changing the campaign.
36 Austria: The 1990 Campaign
THE RESULT
The election result was a surprise for both parties and observers. As
Table 2.2 shows, the official victor was the SPO which despite its
handicaps managed to just about hang on to its vote share and kept all
its parliamentary seats. This was first and foremost a personal triumph
for Vranitzky who received 576 315 preference votes, 28.6 per cent of
the SPO vote and more than four times as much as had been the total
of preference votes for all candidates in 1986. The real winner was the
FPO which almost doubled its vote share and seats. The clear loser
was the OVP which lost almost a quarter of its vote and seventeen
seats, leaving it twenty seats (previously three) behind the SPO. The
Greens managed to gain two seats but without increasing its vote share
and thus performed below expectations.
An exit poll showed that for 51 per cent of SPO voters Vranitzky
had been the strongest reason for their vote. This was by far the most
important reason for voting SPO in 1990, followed by the party's
traditional strength in the area of social security provision which was
mentioned by 43 per cent of the SPO voters. Similarly, Haider proved
40 Austria: The 1990 Campaign
Percentages Seats
1986 1990 1986 1990
SPO 43.1 42.8 80 80
OVP 41.3 32.0 77 60
FPO 9.7 16.6 18 33
Greens 4.8 4.8 8 10
Others 1.0 3.8
Note
1. Much of this chapter is based on primary sources such as interviews, party
publications, newspaper reports and campaign material.
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Meth-Cohn, D. and Muller, W. C. (1991), 'Leaders Count: The Austrian
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Muller, W. C. (1983), 'Direktwahl und Parteiensystem', Osterreichisches
Jahrbuchfiir Politik 1983, pp. 83-112.
- - (J 990), 'Personlichkeitswahl bei der Nationalratswahl J990', Osterrei-
chisches Jahrbuch fiir Politik 1990, pp. 261-82.
42 Austria: The 1990 Campaign
The June 1983 election seemed to herald the possible demise of two-
party adversarialism in British politics. For the first time since 1945, a
national political force other than Labour or the Conservatives
returned more than one quarter of the vote cast and threatened to
break into the citadel of major party supremacy. Since the 1970s the
Nationalists had managed to ensure that two-party domination was
broken in Scotland, but the emergence of the Social Democratic-
Liberal Alliance in England now held out the prospect that national
politics might move away from its traditionally confrontational style
towards the more complex pattern of coalitional competition found in
many parts of continental Europe. However, in June 1987 the
essentially trilateral election campaign (in England and Wales) was
as adversarial as any of its predecessors; in this respect the mould
remained unbroken.
The timing of the election is entirely a matter of prime ministerial
discretion, subject to a five-year maximum limit. When Margaret
Thatcher dissolved parliament in the middle of May 1987, therefore,
she still had a possible twelve months grace. However, she exploited
her tactical advantage to the full by calling an election at a moment
that was opportune in terms of the key economic and political
indicators. Since the autumn of 1986 public spending constraints
had loosened somewhat, the rate of interest had fallen, unemploy-
ment had begun to fall, real disposable income to rise and the
Conservatives to surge ahead in the opinion polls. The government
had fulfilled election pledges about which it could boast and radical
new promises to make. The major issues that emerged were largely
typical of domestic peace time election campaigns in Britain; the
management of the economy was paramount, and the theme which
was so characteristic of the Thatcher years - which might be crudely
summarised by the phrase 'private affluence versus public squalor' -
43
44 Britain: The 1987 Campaign
One of the major uses that election funds are put to in modern
campaigning is advertising. Indeed for the Conservatives, this amoun-
ted to the single biggest item of campaign expenditure in 1987; nearly
£6.5 million was directed towards professional advertising. The
advertising company that made its name when it obtained the
Conservative party account in 1979, Saatchi and Saatchi, was once
again employed. However, the Conservatives also consulted the
American firm of Young and Rubicam from 1985 onwards. The
potentially delicate situation in which the party came to rely on rival
marketing consultants is thought to have emerged from Thatcher's
own personal annoyance with the preparatory research conducted by
Saatchi's and BJM (opinion) Research Associates more than a year
before the election; perhaps this was merely a case of the messenger
being blamed for the message (that Thatcher had 'lost her way' in the
public perception}, for it is not clear that Young and Rubicam
reported significantly different findings. Whatever, by the summer of
1986, Thatcher was looking for an alternative perspective from
marketing consultants (Tyler, 1987). The party also maintained a
link with the Harris polling organisation, and bought into a large
monthly survey conducted by Gallup in order to elaborate upon
secondary analysis. In addition Young and Rubicam conducted polls
of its own. From these sources, the Conservatives were able to rely
upon a variety of different types of poll throughout the campaign.
Labour's strategists sought to transform the party's former reluc-
tance to embrace wholeheartedly the techniques of modern marketing.
Determination to rival the Tories' approach to political marketing
probably sprang from the new Director of Campaigning and Com-
Paul Webb 47
effective campaign. It was the only party to stick closely to its original
plan throughout. It had planned to concentrate on a specific issue each
day of the campaign, and by and large it appeared to do this. In
reality, however, the party and the leader were too far behind in the
polls, and had been so for too long at the moment of dissolution.
Though it could not be admitted publicly at the time, the real objective
of Labour's campaign therefore became victory in the 'battle for the
opposition'. At the outset of the campaign Labour was seriously
threatened by the Alliance, according to the opinion polls. It therefore
became imperative for the party to demonstrate that it was a more
credible alternative government than the Alliance was either a
coalition partner or a main bloc of opposition. This it did by
effectively combating the internal 'threat' from the far left, producing
a largely unspectacular but 'safe' manifesto, polishing up its leaders'
images and showing that it could at least be relied upon to manage an
impressive and professional campaign effort. By contrast the Alliance
fumbled its chance. The SCA coordinators have summarised Labour's
achievement thus: 'We lost this election but we laid the groundwork
for winning the next' (Gould eta/., 1989, p. 86).
Labour recognised that it had to concentrate on attacking the
Alliance during the early part of the campaign, and hoped that,
having 'seen them orr, it might then be able to chip away at the
strong Conservative base. This was broadly what happened. Evidence
suggests that fully two-thirds of all the electors who were initially torn
between the Alliance and Labour finally opted for the latter, whereas
only one-fifth of those wavering between the Conservatives and
Labour did (Miller eta/., 1989, p. 114). It was only really during the
third week of the campaign that things began to move away from
Labour, with a double-sided attack from the Conservatives and the
Alliance on the defence issue, clearly an area where Labour did not
have the confidence of the electorate. The other significant flaw in
Labour's campaign probably related to timing; though they started
well, the party's campaign managers have admitted to 'feeling the
pressure' during the final week of the campaign, and consequently to
'not fully maintaining momentum' (Hewitt and Mandelson, 1989,
p. 54).
By contrast things went far less smoothly for the Conservatives, but
they probably paced their effort a little better. We know that there
were tensions between Central Office and Downing Street, tensions
which were reinforced by a number of professional and personal
rivalries. The general slickness of Labour's effort had started to
58 Britain: The 1987 Campaign
In the 1992 election there is little doubt that Labour will maintain a
similar campaign management structure; moreover, although Kin-
nock's leadership is bound to figure prominently once more, the
party is now buoyed by a new policy profile designed to make it
60 Britain: The 1987 Campaign
Notes
In researching for this chapter I am grateful for the assistance of the staff in
Labour's campaign and communication department, Conservative Central
Office and the SDP Chief Whip's office.
References
appear, but again the election committee rejected the advice, arguing
that the party had five cabinet members and all five should appear.
The election committee had the final say: the producer even had to re-
edit the programme because one minister's name was not mentioned in
sync with a picture of the person's head!
The Conservatives' preparations started in the spring of 1990.6 The
early start was provoked by fear that the annual budget negotiations
might end in an election. However, as the prime minister's party it
wished to signal confidence in the eventual success of the negotiations,
so the election preparations were disguised as a membership drive. The
fact that membership has been on the decline made this camouflage a
perfect cover (Eiklit, 199la). During the autumn the party's general
~ampaign plan was adjusted to the actual situation and when the
parliamentary position became tense, a prearranged meeting of branch
chairpersons was used for stepping up preparations in case of an
election. This meeting took place only two days before the election was
called and the very next day the organisation was put on a campaign
footing. So by the time the party's national council met, three days
after the calling of the election, all the campaign posters were ready to
be presented to the council members and to the press.
It was agreed that the advertising campaign should not be too
extravagant: extensive advertising might have given the impression
that the party had considerable means, an impression the party
leadership did not want to convey. Therefore the advertisements,
which were produced by Saatchi and Saatchi, were more scattered
and less visible than at previous elections. In contrast more stress was
placed on the television election broadcast which received the highest
rating of all the election broadcasts according to one opinion poll. Like
the Social Liberals the Conservatives also relied on publicly available
information, primarily the newspaper opinion polls, rather than
commissioning their own private research. The party's voters are
scattered socially and geographically so it is difficult to make much
use of opinion polls. However, information from the public polls on the
voters' evaluation of various issues was used to decide on the
advertising themes. Even though the election was called after unsuc-
cessful negotiations on budget and taxation issues (where the Con-
servatives had advocated tax cuts), it was obvious from the opinion
polls that the voters were not really interested in that issue, but rather in
the subject of unemployment. Consequently, there were no advertise-
ments on the 6 per cent tax on middle and higher incomes, while
unemployment was given higher priority than originally envisaged.
68 Denmark: The 1990 Campaign
spent DKr 178 000 on the television broadcast and DKr 392 000 on
advertising. 10
The campaign managers of the Conservatives were a group of nine
headed by prime minister Schluter and in reality also selected by him.
Members included two central cabinet ministers, the chairman of the
parliamentary group, the party's general secretary, the press officer
and two representatives of Saatchi's. The group met every second or
third day, while a narrower group, consisting of Schluter, the party's
general secretary and the leader of the parliamentary group, met more
often, sometimes together with the press officer. Schluter's central
position is quite remarkable: he not only chaired these central
campaign bodies, he also took a very active part in their work,
checking everything before its implementation. Some campaign mater-
ial was distributed from headquarters to local branches and candi-
dates, but the campaign as such was not very centralised. Nominations
take place locally, and only rarely is the head office involved in this
process. A few Conservative candidates did deviate from the party line
and had a lot of media coverage, as was probably their intention. One
young Conservative in Copenhagen argued that recipients of social
benefits should be deprived of voting rights. It was immediately
announced by the chairman of the parliamentary group that this
would never be Conservative policy. Incidents like this might be said
to have created some conusion among potential Conservative voters.
The entire campaign costs of the Conservatives approached DKr 6
miilion which were covered by some 1600 financial contributions
primarily from a variety of organisations and private companies.
Thus the ordinary budget of the party, which is mainly covered by
membership fees and public funding (available only since 1987), was
not affected by the election. 11 Advertising cost almost DKr 4 miilion,
while the costs of producing the television election broadcast was DKr
400 000. The rest was used on local radio spots and on posters,
meetings and so on. The staffing of the central office were primarily
the seventeen full time employees assisted by five part-time staff. Some
six to seven employees of the press services and the party's political-
economic department also assisted. The tradition of voluntary
assistance among the party's 36-37 000 members is not very strong.
The national committee and candidates of the Christian People's
party were summoned in the first weekend after the announcement of
the election. The role of this rather formal assembly was to confirm the
campaign strategy. For day-to-day decisions the party chairman, the
party secretary and the chairman of the standing election committee
72 Denmark: The 1990 Campaign
almost as much as the state grants. 12 The policy of the party is that
fund-raising should cover all campaign related expenses. Central
campaign expenditure totalled some DKr 5 million: DKr 3 million
on newspaper advertisements, DKr 550 000 on the television broadcast
and DKr 500 000 on candidate posters. A direct mail drop to farmers
cost a further DKr 250 000. The party employs fourteen to fifteen staff
at head office and three journalists at the press office at Christiansborg
(the premises of the Folketing). The head office employed an
additional three or four persons during the campaign.
allowing the party to advertise in all the newspapers every day during
the last fourteen days of the campaign. The party planned two
campaigns: one using all available media and one focusing solely on
internal networks. The proposed strategy was to concentrate on the
media in the first part of the campaign and then to switch the focus to
local activities in the second part. As regards the local activities an
increasing interest in door-to-door canvassing and all sorts of
campaign gimmicks was clearly visible. In the last few years the party
has registered its members centrally thereby allowing head office to
communicate directly and quickly with them. This facility was used for
the first time in 1990. Direct mailing of members and the distribution
of a recently established members' magazine demonstrated the party's
intention to bypass - or rather to complement - the media, thereby
implementing the overall communication plan.
The Social Liberal party adopted a non-aggressive campaign
strategy, appealing for a new mandate on a joint government plat-
form. Its main issue was the general economic plan over which the
election was called. The strategy was rigidly adhered to throughout the
three-week campaign, even when the government partners started to
deviate from their common ground and media attention swayed; even
when the party lost the initiative and was put in a defensive position.
At the last of its eleven press conferences the party tried to adapt to the
situation where the Conservative and the Liberals were aggressively
pursuing their own ends by laying out new aims for Social Liberal
participation in a government after the election.
In the 1988 campaign the focus had been on the image of the
parliamentary leader, Niels Helveg Petersen. The party lost votes and
one seat. This time it decided not to focus on individuals; instead, it
tried to focus on the parliamentary group and the five ministers as a
team. Apart from a few loose discussions there were no specific
attempts to train and prepare the leaders for the television debates.
The election manifesto highlighted the five issue areas where the party
held ministries: environment, social welfare, culture, energy and
economy. It was prepared by the party organisation leader, ratified
by the national executive and printed in full in the election folder. An
official election post-mortem by the national executive was to describe
the manifesto as 'complicated, long, technical and "boring"' . 13 The
party's press meetings did not get extensive media coverage. Only one
meeting - where the Minister of Environment and a prominent
defector from the Liberals, now running as a Social Liberal, launched
themselves as new political partners in a multimember constituency
Lars Bille, Jergen Elk/it and Mikael V. Jakobsen 15
THE RESULT
accepted by all political parties even though from time to time they
tried to hide this behind various policy proposals.
•Two seats from Greenland and two from the Faroe Islands are disregarded.
Source: Official returns.
The election results and their 1988 comparisons are shown in Table
4.1. 15 Evidently the Social Democrats and the Liberals were the
victors. The Social Democratic party gained as much as 7.6 percent-
age points which brought it back to its level of the late 1970s. The
Liberal party also did better than in recent elections, partly at the
expense of its government coalition partner, the Conservatives. The
third coalition partner, the Social Liberals, performed badly losing
virtually a third of their 1988 electoral strength. The final party under
scrutiny here, the Christian People's party, succeeded in surmounting
the 2 per cent threshold with a slightly higher margin than in 1988.
How do these election results correspond to the election campaigns
of the five parties? Interestingly enough the campaigns of the Social
Democrats and the Liberals had a number of features in common: (i)
before the election both were doing well in the opinion polls which
gave them a good starting position and also encouraged them to
Lars Bille, Jergen Elk/it and Mikael V. Jakobsen 79
launch an aggressive strategy; (ii) they were well prepared for the
campaign - perhaps better than the other parties - and they stuck to
their campaign plans and themes; (iii) each used a double strategy,
aiming at the general electorate as well as their traditional constituen-
cies; (iv) they have bigger and better organisations than other Danish
parties, a fact which allows them to coordinate both national and local
campaigns to a much higher degree than other parties. The two parties
also saw each other as main contenders, operating as exponents of two
general tendencies in modern Danish society: one as the main defender
of the public sector and the welfare state, the other as a constituent
element in 'the Liberal wave'. There is a clear-cut connection between
both parties' campaigns, certain central tendencies in present-day
Danish society and the election results themselves. One conclusion,
therefore, is that the explanations offered for the electoral success of
these two parties are valid on both sides of the political-ideological
spectrum. This makes the general conclusion - that the campaign as
such did matter - even more plausible.
Another striking feature in explaining the success of both parties is
their stress on leader image. However, this is a feature they share in
common with the three other parties under scrutiny, albeit to varying
degrees. It is particularly evident in the case of the Conservatives'
stress on the image of prime minister Schluter; it is also striking in the
campaign of the Christian People's party; and indeed the poor result
of the Social Liberal party might at least be partially explained by its
problems with leader image, as well as in the way its election
committee acted on this matter. Immediately after the election results
were known the Social Liberals withdrew from the government and
soon after there was a change of party leadership. Since no other
government could be formed, Schluter was able to continue with yet
another non-socialist minority coalition government, this time con-
sisting only of his own Conservatives and the Liberals. Thus, in spite
of their losses, the Conservatives succeeded in securing their main
objective.
We can draw some general conclusions about Danish election
campaigns. First, compared to a number of other countries, they are
not very costly. Second, Danish parties are reluctant to make use of
many of the paraphernalia of contemporary campaigns such as market
research, or consultants. Third, the parties generally are highly
centralised and tend to concentrate on the use of the media (and in
particular television, see also Siune, 1986) thereby reflecting how the
electoral system operates. Finally, since Danish campaigns are rather
80 Denmark: The 1990 Campaign
Notes
I. On the 1988 campaigns of three of these parties see Bille (1991b). In
general on the 1987 and 1988 campaigns see Siune (1989).
2. Information on the Social Democrats is primarily based on interviews
with the party's organisational secretary, Henrik Ssrensen, and the head
of the political and economic department, Jacob Buksti.
3. Information here is from a paper by Jacob Buksti: 'Overvejelser vedr. den
politiske strategi frem til et kommende folketingsvalg', 7 June 1990
(mimeo).
4. Information on the Social Liberals is primarily based on interviews with
the general secretary, Kurt Buch Jensen, and the press officer, Bo
Jeppesen.
5. Each registered party is allowed to make one election broadcast of ten
minutes duration. This is followed by a discussion programme where
journalists cross-examine politicians representing the party.
6. Information on the Conservatives is based on an interview with the party's
general secretary, John Wagner.
7. Information on the Christian People's party is based on an interview with
the party secretary, Niels Chr. Andersen.
8. Information on the Liberals is primarily based on an interview with the
party's general secretary, Claus Hjort Frederiksen.
9. Bersen, 6 December 1991.
10. Preliminary account of the 1990 general election, presented to the
National Board of the Social Liberals, 7 February 1991.
II. The parties are allocated public funding each year on the basis of the
number of votes won at the most recent election: DKr 5 per vote in general
elections, DKr 3 in municipal elections and DKr 2 in county elections.
12. Accounts of the National Liberal Organisation 1989, presented to the
1990 party congress. These accounts are the first ever published by the
Liberal party.
13. The Executive Committee's Evaluation Report on the General Election,
12 December 1991. Report to the National Board, 26 January 1991.
14. Quoted from a letter to Danish farmers by Ellemann-Jensen.
15. For analysis of the 1987 and 1988 elections see Elklit and Tonsgaard
(1989). On the 1990 election see Borre (1991).
Lars Bille, Jergen Elk/it and Mikael V. Jakobsen 81
References
The aim of this chapter is to discuss and evaluate how the five most
important parties in Finland planned and organised their campaigns in
the 1991 election and with what result. The discussion stems from an
institutional framework in which laws and regulations are seen to have
an essential impact on how parties run their campaigns. Of course,
campaigning in Finland follows the general trend of change caused by
the increasing role of modern mass media in elections. But electoral
laws and the public regulations of parties, especially reforms starting
in 1954, have had such a comprehensive impact on election campaigns
that they must briefly be discussed. Since the introduction of universal
suffrage in 1906 Finland has had a constituency based, proportional
voting system. In only one of the current fifteen constituencies (Aland
Islands) does a system of plural voting prevail. The combination of
proportional voting and a complex cleavage structure has encouraged
candidates to stress consistent party appeals. In the original list system
which was used in parliamentary elections the voters had to choose
between candidate lists (one list included a maximum of two candi-
dates and one deputy). Since 1954 important changes to the system
have made it possible to vote only for one individual candidate. This
change has converted the Finnish electoral system into a unique list
system with voting for individual candidates. The order of the
candidates on the lists is not predetermined but depends entirely on
the outcome of the voting. Already in the late 1960s Klaus Tornudd
(1968, p. 58) noted that the electoral campaign was highly individua-
listic: 'The party organizations of course do their share of electioneer-
ing, put out pamphlets and publish advertisements featuring all their
candidates, but this activity is supplemented and often almost
drowned by agitation on behalf of individual candidates, sometimes
more or less openly competing within the same electoral alliance'.
82
Jan Sundberg and Stefan Hognabba 83
With the introduction of the Parties Act in 1969 all forms of non-
democratic organisation were outlawed, the implication being that
devotee party organisations based on cells and democratic centralism
(the Communist party) were not permitted in law (all forms of fascist
party models were outlawed at the end of the Second World War).
Thus all parties - regardless of organisational type and colour - must
follow democratic principte·s in their internal decision-making and in
their organisational structure (Parti/ag, 1969). Under the terms of this
Act all kind of centralised, parallel campaign organisations did not
satisfy the criterion of a democratic organisation. Under the Parlia-
mentary Elections Act primary elections among party members living
in the constituency were made compulsory (Lag om riksdagsmannaval,
1975). These Acts have increased the need for candidates to appeal
directly and personally to the voters: the voter casts his or her ballot
for an individual candidate, and the ballot also counts for the party list
on which it appears (Arter, 1984; Thomas, 1985). The regulations
enacted by these laws have resulted in the following three main
characteristics: (i) the disparity between parties has been reduced; (ii)
the candidate lists have promoted individualism in elections; (iii)
formal national party control over the subnational party in candidate
selection has been effectively curtailed.
The modernisation of campaigns has coincided with the new laws
on elections and parties and with increased media coverage. The first
modern campaign was in 1966 and this trend was strongly reinforced
in the 1970 election. The television replaced old campaign methods by
becoming the most important source of political information for
voters. Around the same time adolescents, born in the post-war baby
boom, entered the electorate and the parties had to find new methods
in line with the young pop culture (Rantala, 1972). The process of
modernisation increased rapidly in 1967 when parties represented in
parliament for the first time received public subsidies. In 1968 a total
of FIM I0 million was distributed to the parties according to their
number of MPs. This sum rapidly increased in the late 1970s and the
1980s. In 1990 FIM 68 million was provided for party support,
another FIM 4 million for international activities and FIM 10 million
went to the parliamentary parties (Wiberg, 1991). In total the parties
in parliament were in receipt of some FIM 30 per vote. The influx of
public money radically improved party finances and opened the
possibility of buying advertising and consultancy services. Before
1967 parties had very small financial resources to spend on cam-
paigns. A new trend began in the 1970s when supporter groups- with
84 Finland: The 1991 Campaign
The Left-Wing Alliance, the Social Democrats, the Centre party and
the National Coalition all share the same market research agency,
Finnish Gallup, in their preparation of campaign strategy. The
findings are exclusively for the use of these four parties and each
has its own special arrangement in the research. 2
Reflecting the recency of its foundation (April 1990) the Left-Wing
Alliance started its preparations late, in September 1990. The party's
advertising agency, Focus OY, had the bulk of the responsibility for its
preparations and planning. Its task was to make use of those themes
the party wanted stressed, to design and print posters and leaflets for
the campaign and to handle the local radio advertisements. In forming
the campaign 'product' the party elite were given different alternatives
by the agency from which they could select their favoured options. In
addition the agency's function was to train the party's candidates for
television appearances, providing them with courses in an authentic
studio milieu.
External, specialist assistance was also used for arranging special
youth festivals around the country, for the printing of ballots during
the primary elections and for organising a direct mail service.
Although the external consultants had an essential role to play in
planning the campaign, the main work of the campaign itself was still
centred around the individual candidates. Of the party's 230 candi-
dates all except two or three were backed by a supporter group largely
made up of members of the Left-Wing Alliance. Their main task was
to arrange different types of political events, to advertise, collect
money, assist the candidate with political advice and to give the
candidate psychological support.
The Social Democrats' planning began in May 1989 when the
party's executive decided the timetable for completing the candidate
lists. At the same meeting the campaign timetable was discussed. The
privately commissioned polls were used to gather information about
people's attitudes to the main political issues and their standpoints on
societal matters at the grassroots level. The strategists were of the view
that opinion polls did not provide sufficient feedback on how the party
was perceived as acting. Therefore, it placed more confidence on
information about the electorate which was provided by the local
party branches around the country. The party central office made use
of one advertising agency, Bonare OY, whose work was supplemented
by a number of other agencies employed by the subnational organisa-
86 Finland: The 1991 Campaign
Table 5.1 Party central office budgets in the Finnish parliamentary elections
of 1975 to 1991 (in FIM millions)
Swedish Social
Centre National People's Democratic Left-Wing
party Coalition party party Alliance
•The figures are for the communist Finnish People's Democratic League
which was transformed into a totally new party, the Left-Wing Alliance in
1990.
Source: Party accounts and interview data from 1991.
As shown in Table 5.1 the campaign budgets of the four old parties
have increased on average by more than four times since the 1975
election. It is noteworthy that the new Left-Wing Alliance's budget
was three times higher in 1991 than in the election of 1987. More
money than ever before was raised for the 1991 election, none the less
expenditure easily outstripped re\ enue. In addition, the figures
reported in Table 5.1 do not include the total expenditures of party
districts, branches and supporter groups. Most candidates had to take
out bank loans, and the supporter groups raised a lot of 'invisible'
money which did not appear in the party accounts. It is a very time
consuming and problematic operation to derive an estimate of total
expenditure ranging from the lowest to the highest level in the party
organisation. The 'invisible' revenue, for instance, may be gathered as
extra membership fees from members either in one branch only, or on
the other extreme, from all party members. Much more common than
this are the various donations from private supporters, supporting
organisations and/or from private businesses. In contrast to the public
funds collected from taxpayers, there is no desire either among the
92 .Finland: The 1991 Campaign
essence, the more loosely connected labour unions and the workers'
sports federation support the socialist parties economically and
promote party messages among their members. The system works in
similar ways for the agrarian Centre party where the producers'
organisations have a key role. The Swedish People's party has
connections with many Swedish organisations and for these, as for
the agrarians, the barrier between what is regarded as politics and
what is not is low. Finally, the conservative National Coalition has
close ties with the economically strong employers' organisations. All in
all the staff in these supporting organisations are often party members
or adherents, and their members - at least those in leading positions -
in a similar way are either party members or adherents. Although this
system of organised resource allocation seems to function well, there
are signs among the labour union members that the socialist domi-
nance may be threatened in the future. The important socialisation
channel of the workers' sports federation may soon merge with the
national non-socialist federation. Such a change would considerably
weaken the organisational resources of labour parties during election
time.
THE RESULT
to lose support (and seven seats). All in all, of the seventeen parties
that competed in the election, nine managed to win seats in parlia-
ment. As a result the parliament is more fragmented than ever before.
Freeriding
yes no
I II
Campaign
Resources
low III IV
Notes
References
Under French law the official presidential campaign begins only two
weeks before the first ballot. But all that really means is that no public
monies will be visibly spent on the campaign before then: campaign
literature paid for by the state will not be sent out, official public
billboards (of equal size and equal number for each candidate) will not
be put up in their appointed spots, and free use of radio and television
will not be allowed. There is nothing to stop the candidates from
beginning unofficial but unmistakably campaign-directed activity
whenever they wish.
The tendency towards an early commencement of presidential
campaign activity is compounded in France by factors already
mentioned: as each party must have its 'presidentiable' candidate,
there is a sense in which as soon as that person is clearly identified, he
or she is permanently campaigning. As Olivier Duhamel (1989, p. 133)
has pointed out, 'no one in France doubted, more than two years
before the election, that Barre, Chirac and Mitterrand ... would be
the three great candidates'. Nor are French candidates as subject to
sudden death as in the United States - the French media have no
tradition of prying into the private lives of their leaders (and in any
case the reaction of the French to a scandal of the type that brought
down Gary Hart would more likely be amused approval).
The official campaign season is always conducted under a set of
elaborate rules: those for the presidential election of 1988 were
carefully spelled out by the Ministry of the Interior in a twenty-
three-page memorandum to all candidates and enforced by a National
Commission for the Control of the Electoral Campaign which
maintained local offices in every department (Ministere de
l'Interieur, 1988). It was the responsibility of this Commission to
send out the candidates' official 'declarations' and to make the
necessary arrangements for the official posters on the official bill-
boards, as well as to rule on any problems developing in the course of
the campaign. All the official announcements of the candidates were to
be prepared according to rigorously standardised formats: the official
poster stating the candidate's declarations had to be exactly 594 x 841
104 France.' The 1988 Presidential Campaign
mm and the candidate was required to deliver 150 copies no later than
8 pm on 10 April; the official poster announcing meetings and
broadcasts on behalf of the candidate could not be larger than 297 x
420 mm; posters must not be printed in blue, white and red (the
colours of the French flag; no candidate should suggest he or she is the
only patriotic choice). It was formally forbidden to put up posters
anywhere other than the official locations or to use paid advertising in
the press or 'by any means of audiovisual propaganda'. Public
employees were forbidden to distribute campaign propaganda and
all printers and editors as well as the candidates themselves were held
responsible for complying with the regulations.
Under a law passed on 11 March 1988, every French candidate is
required to record all campaign monies received and disbursed in the
six months preceding the campaign; however, for this particular
election, accounts had to be kept only between the date of the passage
of the law and the election (about five weeks). The new law limited
individuals to giving FF20 000 per candidate and groups to FF50 000;
such gifts are tax deductible, but must not represent more than 1.25
per cent of the taxable income of individuals or more than 2 per cent
of the taxable income of groups. No limit is set on the amount a
political party may give a candidate. Any gift greater than FF2000
must be made by cheque, and anonymous gifts made in cash must not
exceed 20 per cent of the total finances of the campaign. Loans or
'advances' count as contributions. And no matter how much he or she
has received, the candidate is not supposed to spend more than FF120
million on the campaign for the first ballot or exceed an additional
FF20 million for the run-off election.
In addition to contributions, presidential candidates may count on a
large degree of public financing. The state pays for all official posters,
for their transport from printer to points of distribution and for the
costs of hanging them. It reimburses candidates for up to FF6 million
of their expenses if they obtain 5 per cent or more of the vote on the
first ballot, and for up to FF30 million if they are in the run-off
(always under the condition that they have submitted their accounts
properly and have not spent more than allowed by law). They are also
guaranteed equal free time on radio and television.
If the official campaign were the only campaign, the above rules
would no doubt serve as a sufficient control on campaign finance. As
we have noted, however, the unofficial campaign begins long in
advance. In practice great sums are spent without any accountability
whatsoever prior to the official campaign.
Kay Lawson and Colette Ysmal 105
before the date of the run-off election, Chirac announced the 'formal
support' of 5000 mayors and 1500 regional and departmental repre-
sentatives. For the next few weeks he kept announcing new lists
(departmental committees, socio-professional committees, presidents
of regional committees, 100 nationally distinguished citizens, thirty
leading 'personalities' in a particular department). The Barre camp
responded by terming such tactics divisive of the moderate right, likely
to suggest that it was 'confused', and not in conformity with the spirit
of union, while claiming that of course Barre could come up with
comparable lists if it were not so contemptible a tactic.
The press picked up on the struggle and made much of it. Forming
the committees was reported as if it were an extremely important
matter, despite a complete lack of evidence of their efficacy. The
competing teams of political professionals constantly sought to wrest
ever greater 'visibilisation' of the political coups they believed they
were achieving when either adding new committees (Chirac) or getting
new personages to deplore the tactic (Barre). Then, apparently
becoming concerned that Barre's support in the run-off might be at
risk, the Chirac team called a halt, and no more committees were
announced during the final weeks of the campaign. According to Jean-
Baptiste Legavre, the 'bataille des comites de soutien' did more to
demonstrate how politicians and journalists unthinkingly accept and
conform to 'rites and practices to which the voter is presumed to be
attentive' than it did to make a significant contribution to the relative
success or failure of either candidate (Legavre, 1990). The possible
insignificance of such committees to the overall campaign organisation
is underlined by the fact that the eventual winner had none. More
eager to maintain his image as rassembleur than to find himself
surrounded by zealots, Mitterrand had no comites de soutien, unless
one counts that formed without his permission by the monthly journal
Globe, which presented the president as the flawless hero of French
socialism.
Mitterrand has been hard at work on his image for many years.
Despite his earlier expressed contempt for the autocratic and aristo-
cratic styles of de Gaulle and Giscard d'Estaing, once in the presidency
Mitterrand has been almost as grandly aloof as any of his predeces-
sors. Almost, but not quite. What Mitterrand has that they Jacked is
112 France: The 1988 Presidential Campaign
net result was considerably less television coverage than has been the
custom in France in the past. Only by staging the most spectacular of
mass meetings or the most dramatic of debates could the various
campaigns count on adequate coverage.
Given the difficulties of attracting media attention, there was a
somewhat greater attempt than usual to communicate directly to the
voters. However, the high cost of postage means that it is difficult to
rely on direct mail; in 1988 only Mitterrand sent out a mass mailing,
reaching some 3 million homes with his 'Lettre aux Fran~tais'.
Telephone and door-to-door canvassing is likely to have an adverse
result on the French, who zealously protect the privacy of the home; in
addition, the local parties seldom have sufficient militants to do the
job well. By far the most common tactic of direct communication is
the poster, particularly those termed affiches sauvages, those which are
put up when and where they ought not to be, often over those of other
candidates.
The other major form of direct communication is the public
meeting, which may be anything from a small group meeting in
someone's living room to hear a representative of the candidate, to
the candidate himself addressing a large crowd or having dinner with a
small and influential group. All the candidates travelled a great deal
during the 1988 campaign. Le Pen began such trips more than a year
in advance, Chirac staged fifteen large rallies between January and
April; Mitterrand began with plans for four meetings but then raised
the number to eight, Barre held ten large gatherings, and Lajoinie
visited every departmental branch of his party, holding large meetings
in fifteen of them. The preference for huge gatherings was apparent
and even then the candidates worried that they might be losing time,
given that 'the least important television show, even local, can give one
tens of thousands [of viewers]'. 7
Whatever form the direct contact may take, it is up to the
professional consultants to devise the messages and design the
posters, the handouts, and the vast array of campaign gimmickry.
The message must be something that can be quickly recognised as
signifying the particular candidate. According to Seguela (1987), it
must have content as well as style: 'invented to communicate the
essence, form has never replaced it'. However, as we have already seen,
'essence' need not mean clear explication of detailed issue positions.
Only the Communists have continued to explain their positions in
detail in handouts and posters, with the result that their efforts now
appear surprisingly dated and verbose. The other candidates keep their
118 France: The 1988 Presidential Campaign
messages short and snappy, and are as likely to have them printed on
scarves or badges or T-shirts as on paper.
As they have modernised, French campaigns have become less
reliant on individual militants. Party activists are still needed to put
up posters, to distribute party literature and to turn out in massive
numbers at staged rallies. But as in other nations where excessively
personalised campaigning via the media on the advice of political
consultants has become the norm, the candidates now rely less on
volunteer labour. Like the ordinary voters, the true believers may as
well stay at home and watch it all on television; they are less likely to
get in the way.
Notes
I. The party system underwent a significant change in 1989 when the
ecologists, who had been unsuccessful since 1974, won about 10 per cent
of the vote in both municipal and European elections.
2. In 1986 the Socialists changed the electoral system to one of proportional
representation. In 1988 the Gaullists changed it back to the two-ballot
system.
3. It is not only corporations that make donations. In 1988 it was widely
reported that part of Le Pen's treasury was donated by an organisation,
CAUSA, which was linked to the Moon religious sect.
4. SOFRES, Societe Fran~aise d'Enquetes par Sondages; IFOP, Institut
Fran~ais d'Opinion Publique; BVA, Brule et Vigne Associes; CSA,
Conseils, Sondages, Analyses.
5. L'e/ection presidentielle, Le Monde Dossiers et Documents, May 1988,
pp. 17-25.
6. There was in fact a revival of such hostility, leading to new clashes, the
killing of police and a retaliatory assassination.
7. Jean-Louis Servan-Schreiber, quoted in Madelin (1987, p. 195).
120 France:· The 1988 Presidential Campaign
References
Notes
1 CSU only in Bavaria. For the Volkskammer election CDU, DSU and DA
(0.9 per cent) were united in the 'Alliance for Germany'.
2 'Alliance of Free Democrats'.
3 No alliance for the Volkskammer elections where there was no 5 per cent
threshold.
4 Above 5 per cent in the eastern electoral territory.
was - for a few weeks only - expected to become the central political
force of a democratic East Germany, but which, in the event, turned
out to be a virtual appendix to the West German party system even at
the first free East German election of March 1990.
With hindsight it is clear that the role of the 'citizens' movements'
during the 'German revolution' were overestimated both by them-
selves and by their political foes. The collapse of the old regime was
initiated by the massive numbers of refugees exiting via the embassies
and the Hungarian border in summer 1989. In the wake of growing,
and increasingly open, unrest and opposition, the leaders of numerous
small opposition groups assumed the role of revolutionary elites
lending their voices to the masses without necessarily expressing their
most salient desires. This became apparent almost immediately after
the liberalisation of the old regime and the opening of the borders,
when the intellectual figureheads of the supposedly first democratic
revolution quickly lost their mass following and hence their political
weight. During this period numerous parties and citizens' movements
were founded. Most were doomed to failure, but some of them
managed to survive the all-German elections.
Let us focus first on those movement initiatives which were
eventually to form the Alliance '90 (Bilndnis '90). Any attempt to
account in detail for their ideological differences is impossible in this
chapter. In fact it could be argued that, due to their very nature as
open and grassroots democratic organisations, it would be impossible
to identify authoritative political positions for individual initiatives.
This is corroborated by the intricate history of mergers and splits in
the first months of 1990 (Milller-Enbergs eta/., 1991).
Coming from a background in the illegal peace and environmental
movements, sheltered by the Protestant church and strongly influ-
enced by progressive elements in the Protestant clergy and dissenting
intellectuals, the movements were oriented towards the ideal of a third
path between capitalism and socialism, to be realised in an indepen-
dent GDR (Musiolek and Wuttke, 1990; Thaysen, 1990a,b). This
implied both a reluctant acceptance of the inevitable demise of the
East German state and a recurrent insistence on the preservation of an
independent GDR identity. Hence during the Volkskammer election
campaign, which was dominated by the unification issue, the citizens'
movements were already 'out of tune' with the overwhelming majority
of the East German population. Furthermore, their concern with an
autonomous identity was a major obstacle to the formation of efficient
Bernhard Boll and Thomas Poguntke 125
The CDU operated with a threefold division of labour. The first group
to meet, in late autumn 1989, was an election committee which was
chaired by the party general secretary. It included the general manager
and the departmental heads of party headquarters. This group looked
in broad terms at the current state and political situation of the party,
at logistic aspects of a campaign and at a preliminary plan of the
campaign budget. Throughout the campaign the group was respons-
ible for strategic planning.
The second group, headed by the general manager of the party, was
in charge of all questions on the technicalities of running the
campaign, including public relations. A third group, chaired by
Kohl, supervised all these activities. It consisted of the general
secretary, reporting to the group about all activities, several members
of the Bundestag, personal advisers, and - with an advisory function
only - the most important campaign officers. Routine monthly
meetings of the national party management with the Land party
managers were turned into a central means of coordinating the
campaign. Throughout the campaign survey material provided by
the Konrad Adenauer Foundation was used to monitor its progress.
The national party had several methods of achieving a uniform
campaign image. A common set of symbols and colours was used for
all campaign materials (posters, leaflets, gifts) which were sold to the
various party levels. As a result of the internal distribution of power,
which is required by the party law, German party headquarters cannot
Bernhard Boll and Thomas Poguntke 129
force lower party units to buy this material; nor, however, can a
national party afford to finance the entire campaign. With this basic
budgetary point in mind, it is nevertheless worth noting that CDU
party headquarters alone spent a total of DM40 million on the
campaign.
In order to motivate lower party levels a set of 3000 free posters
were provided by headquarters for each CDU district. This ensured
that three different kinds of posters, presenting national party slogans,
proliferated nationwide. The national party employed a poster
advertising company for a cross-country billboard campaign. The
national party produced four different TV spots which were broad-
cast on both public and private television stations (Table 7.2). In
addition about 200 commercials were aired on all public and private
radio stations and seven advertisements were published in all regional
newspapers during the last three weeks of the campaign. Cinema
commercials and video clips in discos were also employed as part of
a special youth campaign. The CDU used fax machines on a larger
scale than ever before. Almost all constituency offices of the party
could be reached within twenty minutes to circulate latest updates of
organisational or political interest. The media campaign was supple-
mented by a large number of campaign rallies. Party headquarters
coordinated the schedule of about 100 nationally established politi-
cians who delivered some 1000 campaign speeches.
Television stations1
ARD ZDF RTL SATJ PR07 Tele5
CDU 8 8 26 27 24 26
csu 4 4
SPD 8 8 26 27
PDS 6 6
Greens 4 4
Greens/Alliance'90 4 4
Note
1 ARD and ZDF are public television stations which provide a small
amount of free broadcasting time to political parties during election
campaigns. The number of unpaid TV spots depends on the previous
election results.
130 Germany: The 1990 All-German Election Campaign
paign committee met for the first time. This consisted of the senior
members of party headquarters staff and some close aides of Lafontaine
from the Saarland. It set up four divisions which were responsible for
strategy, marketing, technical management and support for the chan-
cellor candidate. Shortly afterwards the political campaign committee
was appointed by the party board (Parteivorstand). The two groups
were coordinated by the chairman of the technical committee who was a
member of both. The campaign was characterised by enormous
technical difficulties in the eastern part of the country. In addition to
the usual problems of communication and transport, the party suffered
from an almost complete lack of members in East Germany. The
estimated 15 000 or 18 000 members could not be expected to mount
an efficient grassroots campaign. In the western part of the country
local party groups were, as usual, in charge of hanging placards and
distributing leaflets and the party's special election newspaper, which
was issued on four Sundays during the run-up to the election. It
appeared with different local editions covering constituency and
national politics. In East Germany commercial distribution services
had to be used for most of these activities. Clearly the network of
partnerships between eastern and western lower-level units, which had
provided enthusiastic support during the Volkskammer election cam-
paign, could not compensate for the lack of manpower.
Whereas West German local units had to pay for campaign
material, most of the cost for the eastern campaign had to be borne
by the national party. Furthermore, campaign slogans needed adapta-
tion. After forty years of Communist rule and linguistic domination,
Social Democratic key concepts like 'solidarity' had a decidedly
negative connotation in the east. Local activities were complemented
in the last six weeks by a nationwide billboard campaign, organised
and financed by party headquarters, a series of TV spots on public and
private television, newspaper advertisements and a centralised coordi-
nation of campaign speeches by national party elites. Overall, the
Social Democratic headquarters spent approximately DM60 million
on the campaign.
The FDP election committee met for the first time in early autumn
1989 for a brainstorm on the next national election campaign for the
old Federal Republic. The members included the national party
manager, the political staff and the department heads of party
headquarters. Representatives of the public relations division and
the party's long established service company (Comdok), participated
in these first monthly meetings. After the general structure of the
134 Germany: The 1990 All-German Election Campaign
campaign had been developed, meetings with the Land party managers
clarified organisational and technical details and an additional public
relations agency completed the promotional components for the
campaign.
Once it was obvious that there would be all-German elections, the
PDP initially countenanced a split campaign, campaigning with
different emphases in the east and west. Subsequently, it decided to
opt instead for an extended version of the original campaign, knowing
that topics like unification and the expected economic difficulties of
the unification process were both fields covered by leading liberal
politicians. The political and promotional aspects of campaign
strategy were accepted by the party's executive committee with only
marginal changes in early June, 1990. Thereafter the election commit-
tee began to meet at weekly intervals.
The budgeting of campaign expenses was structured in almost the
same way as was the case with the CDU and the CSU. PDP
headquarters spent DM12.8 million on broadcasting and newspaper
advertising, on billboards and placards with a campaign emphasising
its national politicians and key topics. In addition headquarters
provided coupons, worth DM2000, to each local party organisation
in order to guarantee the national party's presence in constituencies.
The vouchers enabled the party levels to buy a selection of material
chosen from a catalogue of promotional items. Another DMlOOO was
granted to support local newspaper advertising or local campaign
activities. Any other costs exceeding this amount were borne by the
party levels themselves. Headquarters coordinated the campaign
speech schedule of twenty-three nationally ranked politicians. It also
subsidised major party campaign events in all sixteen Lander. Overall
the FDP was successful in concentrating its campaigning in East
Germany. In total, according to party figures, 465 national campaign
events were arranged in the eleven old western Lander and 200 in the
five new eastern Lander.
The party operates a nationwide online computer system that
facilitates both electronic mail as well as information via a data
bank. The latter consists of all sorts of data, such as election results,
the views of the party on the most crucial and controversial political
topics and the related speeches of the party's ministers and chairman.
Thus far this network only links headquarters with Land party offices
and the system was only available in the western part of Germany.
Contact with the east was - with enormous technical problems - via
telephones, sometimes by faxes or, even more rarely, by radio
Bernhard Boll and Thomas Poguntke 135
The PDS, of course, still had access to the existing SED party
structure in the GDR, but it suffered in terms of personal support and
the loss of the bulk of its membership. Its offices in the new Lander
were still fairly efficient, but the constituency offices lacked exper-
ienced campaign personnel. Therefore another eighty people - all
former staff of the party that worked on a voluntary basis - were
sent to support the constituency offices.
The PDS campaign varied in the two parts of Germany. Despite the
fact that the membership of the Berlin based election group included
western representatives, there were independent, contrasting cam-
paigns in the east and the west. In West Germany the PDS established
information offices in the biggest cities in all eleven Lander. Once it
had become clear at the July meetings with western sympathisers that
only a limited network had been established, some former members of
the West German Green party and of the Social Democrats, together
with what was left from the German Communist party (DKP)
organised the campaign independently. Their activities concentrated
mainly on an election campaign tour of twenty-one West German
cities, with Hamburg, Cologne and Munich having the largest
campaign groups. The party's most celebrated politicians, former
GDR prime minister Modrow and the party's chairman, Gregor
Gysi, took part in the tour which was held in the last three weeks of
the national campaign and represented a mixture of musical and
artistic events, political talks and press conferences.
In East Germany the election group managed the timetable for
campaign speeches of the party's thirty major candidates. Head-
quarters suggested 'double-day events'. Regional and local party
offices were informed about the date of the arrival of the candidate
who would stay for two days in the region, performing a programme
of visits, talks and speeches, planned and organised by the local party
offices. Campaign slogans and communication tactics also differed in
east and west. While in the west neutral newspapers with aggressive
slogans, word puns, and serious programmatic texts were circulated,
the PDS produced colourful magazines for the east, emphasising the
democratic need for a good opposition and featuring local candidates.
The PDS even invited East German writers to compose sensitive
slogans especially designed for the East German population.
Generally all billboards, posters and placards for all party levels
were centrally financed. The lower party levels had only to pay for
smaller items of merchandising. The party encountered difficulties
when it attempted to place newspaper advertisements. In some cases
Bernhard Boll and Thomas Poguntke 137
CONCLUSION
Notes
References
Arnim, H.-H. von (1991), Die Partei, der Abgeordnete und das Geld (Mainz: v.
Hase und Koehler).
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (1990a), Bundestagswahl 1990: Eine Analyse der
ersten gesamtdeutschen Bundestagswahl am 2 Dezember 1990 (Mannheim,
mimeo).
- - (1990b), Wahl in der DDR: Eine Dokumentation der Volkskammerwahl
vom 18 Marz 1990 (Mannheim, mimeo).
Gibowski, W. G. and Kaase, M. (1991), 'Aufdem Wegzumpolitischen Alltag:
Eine Analyse der ersten gesamtdeutschen Bundestagswahl am 2 Dezember
1990', Aus Po/itik und Zeitgeschichte, 11/12, pp. 3-20.
Kaase, M. and Gibowski, W. G. (1990), 'Deutschland im Ubergang: Parteien
und Wahler vor der Bundestagswahl 1990', Aus Po/itik und Zeitgeschichte,
37f38, pp. 14-26.
Kleinhenz, T. (1990), Wahlkampfund Fernsehen (Mannheim, mimeo).
Bernhard Boll and Thomas Poguntke 143
All five parties began preparing for the European Parliament election
in the autumn of 1988. The internal informative and motivational
campaigns had begun well before the fall of the government. This was
deemed necessary because the European Parliament election, a second
order election, has very little appeal for party activists. The three small
left parties found themselves in a special position. In 1984, faced by a
higher electoral threshold of 4 per cent for the Euro election, they had
campaigned with a joint list of candidates, but in April 1989 talks on
national cooperation or a merger were still dragging along.
Once it became clear, in the first week of May, that a general
election would take place in September, the CDA, already at an
advanced stage in its Euro campaign preparations, needed to make
few changes. Apart from giving more prominence to national politi-
cians, the CDA hardly changed the structure of its campaign at all.
Basically the campaign organisation was the same as in 1986. There
may have been a new secretary to the party executive committee (Cees
Bremmer), who was also campaign manager, but this person had been
working at party headquarters for quite some time.
The campaign was led by the party's campaign committee, a small
club consisting of prime minister Lubbers, the chairman of the
parliamentary party, the party chairman and the campaign manager.
The information officers of the party and the parliamentary party
acted as advisers. The campaign committee met at least once a week
and intensive bilateral talks between the persons concerned also took
place frequently. It took the major strategic decisions. The heart of the
campaign, however, consisted of the campaign staff who met on a
daily basis. Under the direction of the campaign manager, the daily
148 The Netherlands: The 1989 Campaign
not given any priority by the party executive. However, in 1988 the
Social Democrats had concluded a contract with a new advertising
agency, Saatchi and Saatchi. This contract received a great deal of
publicity and raised much criticism in the party and the media because
of the former ties of the British parent company with the Conservative
party and with the apartheid regime in South Africa.
In several respects the PvdA campaign organisation in 1989 differed
strikingly from the organisation in 1986. As in former elections the
campaign was led by a political campaign committee (Polca). In 1986
the composition of the committee was very diverse and included, in
addition to the party's political leader (den Uyl) and the campaign
manager, representatives of the youth organisation (Young Socialists),
the women's organisation (the Red Women) and the scientific bureau.
The political responsibility was in the hands of the party executive,
especially of the party chairman (van den Berg) and the party
secretary. In 1989, however, the committee was much smaller,
comprising party chairman Marian Sint, the deputy chairman of the
executive, party leader Kok, number two in the parliamentary party,
Thijs Woltgens, party secretary, Allard Beck, and the information
officer of the parliamentary party. The party's information officer-
who was also the campaign manager in 1986 and for the 1989 Euro
election - announced his departure in early May and so only made
marginal contributions to the 1989 campaign.
The PvdA had fll.3 million at its disposal. A collection among
members yielded half a million, a further fl800 000 came from the
campaign fund. The major expenditure (fl400 000) was on election
materials such as posters, leaflets, election papers and stickers. Over
fl200 000 was spent on advertising, fl200 000 on several major
campaign events, and a pop concert for young people cost fll25 000.
Research was allotted fl45 000.
As was the case in 1986, the VVD campaign was led by a small
campaign team. The campaign manager was Hugo Dittmar, the
secretary for public relations, information and campaigns at party
headquarters. Dittmar had participated in all VVD campaigns since
1981: this was his first time as campaign manager. Other members of
the campaign team included party chairman, Leendert Ginjaar, party
leader, Joris Voorhoeve, the general secretary of the party and the
information officer of the parliamentary party. The first candidate
from the European Parliament election campaign was also included.
After the collapse of the cabinet, Hermans, the second chairman of the
VVD parliamentary party, was added to the team. His particular
Philip van Praag Jr 151
In 1989, Ernst Bakker was campaign manager both for the Euro
election and the general election. Bakker was closely involved in the
1977, 1981 and 1982 campaigns and is credited by many with the
party's 1981 electoral success (11.1 per cent). When the cabinet fell
D66, like the other parties, put greater emphasis on the national
aspect, assigning political leader van Mierlo a more prominent role.
The campaign team included van Mierlo, Bakker, the party chairman,
the treasurer, the press officer of the parliamentary group and a
representative of the youth organisation. The technical aspects of
the campaign were taken care of by the campaign committee. In the
final weeks of the election the trio of van Mierlo, Bakker and the
parliamentary party press officer met daily and took the major
strategic decisions.
The D66 campaign budget of fl600 000 - including between
fll 00 000 and 150 000 on the Euro election - barely exceeded that of
1986 (fl575 000). Collections among members raised fl300 000 and the
election fund contributed fl275 000. The major items of expenditure
were leaflets and posters (fl200 000) and advertisements (fll25 000). It
was decided that, instead of small advertisements, a limited number of
large advertisements would be used; the view was that small advertise-
ments were all too often associated with small parties. D66 does not
generally spend money on research. Target groups are determined on
the basis of an analysis of the election results and of existing and
publicly available research material. Occasionally, the party is given
research material by survey agencies free of charge. The party does not
use the services of an advertising agency, but advertising and media
specialists have tended to offer their help.
The campaign preparations of the Green Left started late. At the
end of April 1989 the cooperation of the four small left-wing parties
(the radical-socialist PSP, the radical PPR, the communist CPN and
the very small Evangelical People's party) was at a deadlock. The early
parliamentary elections meant an enormous incentive to try once more
to give shape to their cooperation. Under the pressure of the
approaching election they suddenly managed to submit a joint list of
candidates and to make agreements on further cooperation. But this
meant that the campaign preparations and organisation of Green Left
were not launched until the end of June. Moreover, there was very
little time to integrate the various campaign traditions and frequently
the composition of committees was not based on expertise but on
parity between the parties.
Philip van Praag Jr 153
Green Left made only very limited use of the campaign organisation
established for the Euro election. New bodies staffed by new people
were set up. At the head of the campaign stood a committee of four
people (the top executives of the parties concerned), who on the basis
of the campaign plan approved by the interim management of Green
Left led the organisation of the campaign. The campaign manager,
former PPR chairman, Wim de Boer - who had played a key role in
stimulating the cooperation - participated in this committee but did
not have voting rights. Political and strategic decisions were made at
the campaign meetings, attended by the four leading candidates and
the parties' four representatives. It was intended that whenever
necessary this group should meet during the campaign; in practice,
however, they hardly ever did. Several other smaller groups occupied
themselves with special tasks such as radio and television broadcasts,
copy writing and the closing campaign event. Although not commis-
sioning work from an advertising agency, Green Left did work
together with a design studio and an agency (Meyson) placing
advertisements at reduced rates. For the television broadcasts help
was sought from a small production agency.
Green Left did not subscribe to the weekly Nipo or InterView
opinion polls. When planning the campaign it did not carry out any
research, nor did it make systematic use of existing research. The
budget amounted to fl470 000. Most expenses (fl200 000) were related
to the campaign material, including a general brochure (1.1 million
copies), a special issue brochure (160 000), stickers (50 000) and posters
(50 000). The end-of-campaign event, costing a further fl30 000, was
judged generally as not particularly successful.
closing event, attracting 6500 spectators, was a great success, but the
televised closing debate between the leading candidates was not. In
spite of Voorhoeve's extremely careful preparations he made a very
weak impression.
The potential for survival of 066 has suffered a number of blows
over the years. In the 1974 provincial elections the party won just 1 per
cent of the vote. After improvements in 1977 and 1981 (up to 11.1 per
cent), the vote fell back to 2 per cent in the 1984 European Parliament
election. In 1986 the return of van Mierlo (leading candidate in 1967,
1971 and 1972) as political leader pulled the party out of the political
abyss and won it nine seats (6.1 per cent of the vote). D66's problem
has always been a relative lack of loyal supporters; this compares with
the large number of voters mentioning the party as their second
choice. Its electoral fortunes have always been determined by the
movements of its competitors, particularly the PvdA and to a lesser
extent the VVD. The result of the European Parliament election in
June 1989 when its vote dropped to 5.9 per cent was disappointing.
During the summer months the 066 vote seemed to stabilise at around
6 per cent.
066 target groups are always the well educated. The party has a
particularly strong position in some university cities, commuter towns
and, more generally, in the western part of the Netherlands. Its
position is relatively weak in the east. The 066 campaign centred on
five major campaign events throughout the country. Two issues played
an important part, issues which in the past had produced electoral
success. The first of these, the environment, required a clear stance,
particularly in the light of competition from the Green Left. The 066
advertisements were designed appropriately, with the following state-
ment: 'Twenty years ago we said, "Let's share alike in a clean
country." Now left and right are beginning to understand what we
meant at the time.' D66's second theme also revived an old issue: the
need for administrative innovation, for a government which would pay
better attention to its people. In the televised closing debate van
Mierlo launched a proposal to set up a parliamentary committee for
administrative reforms after the election. 066 also distinguished itself
on non-material issues, such as good euthanasia arrangements.
The alliance of small left-wing parties had a good European
Parliament election, winning 7 per cent of the vote. As a new party
Green Left received much more attention from the media than the
separate small parties had in the past. Up to the beginning of August
the opinion polls showed Green Left climbing to about 9 per cent. The
160 The Netherlands: The 1989 Campaign
THE RESULT
The 1989 results were far from shocking (Table 8.1). Remarkably the
CDA retained the seats it had won in 1986. As expected the VVD lost
support and the Green Left had a disappointing result. Reflecting a
good campaign D66 came out as the biggest gainer. And the PvdA
result was striking. Not only had its campaign been praised by
journalists, but research carried out by the University of Amsterdam
indicated that it conducted the best campaign. The party had managed
to remove many doubts among its 1986 supporters and had convinced
a number of voters not to turn to Green Left, yet it still lost three seats.
The University of Amsterdam research involved a panel of 1000
voters who were interviewed daily in the final three weeks before
polling day. 4 Its main findings were that the PvdA would have suffered
a far greater loss but for a good campaign, that the number of Green
Left supporters steadily dwindled during the three weeks, that the
VVD failed to win back supporters it lost after the cabinet crisis, that
D66 conducted a good campaign, and that the CDA campaign was
successful in the last week only. Voters changing their party preference
during the course of the campaign viewed the quality of a party's
Philip van Praag Jr 161
Notes
1. For a detailed discussion of the Dutch party system, see Daalder (1987).
2. The VVD has a trailer which reconstructs part of the Dutch parliament
and this is transported throughout the country as a prop for discussion
with voters.
3. In 1986 the local party branches of the VVD spent an estimated fl900 000
on the national election. The local branches of the CDA spent fl750 000
and the PvdA branches spent 0670000 (Koole, 1990; van Praag Jr, 1987).
4. The research was carried out by Willem Saris, Kees de Rooy and Kees
Maas and was published in issues of the professional advertising journal,
Adformatie (3 August 1989; 24 August 1989; 31 August 1989; 7 September
1989; 12 October 1989).
162 The Netherlands: The 1989 Campaign
References
Brants, K., Kok, W. and Praag Jr, Ph. van (1982), De Strijd om de
Kiezersgunst, Verkiezingscampagnes in Nederland (Amsterdam: Kobra).
Brants, K. (1985),'Broadcasting and Politics in the Netherlands: From Pillar
to Post', West European Politics, 8, pp. 104-21.
Daalder, H. (1987),'The Dutch Party System: From Segmentation to Polar-
ization - and Then?', in H. Daalder (ed.), Party Systems in Denmark,
Austria, Switzerland, The Netherlands and Belgium (London: Frances
Pinter).
Eijk, C. E. van der and Praag Jr, Ph. van (eds) (1987), De strijd om de
meerderheid; de verkiezingen van 1986 (Amsterdam: CT-Press).
Irwin, G. A., Eijk, C. E. van der, Holsteyn, J. J. M., Niemoller, B. (1987),
'Verzuiling, issues, kandidaten en ideologie in de verkiezingen van 1986',
Acta Politica, 22, pp. 129-79.
- - and Holsteyn, J. J. M. (1989) 'Towards a More Open Model of
Competition', in H. Daalder and G. A. Irwin (eds), Politics in _the Nether-
lands. How much change? (London: Frank Cass).
Joslyn, R. (1984), Mass Media and Elections (Reading, Mass: Addison-
Wesley).
Koole, R. A. (1989), 'The "modesty" of Dutch party finance', in H. E.
Alexander (ed.), Comparative Political Finance in the 1980s (Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press).
- - (1990), 'Political Parties Going Dutch: Party Finance in The Nether-
lands', Acta Politica, 25, pp. 37-65.
Lijphart, A. (1989), 'From the Politics of Accommodation to Adversarial
Politics in the Netherlands: A Reassessment' in H. Daalder and G. A. Irwin
(eds), Politics in the Netherlands. How Much Change? (London: Frank
Cass).
Praag Jr, Ph. van (1987),'Verkiezingscampagnes in de afdelingen', Jaarboek
Documentatiecentrum Nederlandse Politieke Partijen 1986 (Groningen:
DNPP).
- - (1991), Strategie en Illussie; Elfjaar intern debat in de PvdA (1966-1977)
(Amsterdam: Het Spinhuis).
Thomassen, J.J.A. and Deth, J. W. van (1989), 'How New is Dutch Politics',
in H. Daalder and G. A. Irwin (eds), Politics in the Netherlands. How Much
Change? (London: Frank Cass).
9 New Zealand: The 1987
Campaign
David Denemark
(Cleveland, 1980) as well as mass rallies in the urban centres, and the
presentation of the party leaders and the entire cabinet or shadow
cabinet and their policies (Garnier and Levine, 1981). The use and
sophistication of television in campaigns arose rather belatedly in the
1970s. Though there was a significant reliance on television by
Labour's Kirk in 1972 and National's Muldoon in 1975, New
Zealand did not experience a true presidential style campaign, geared
primarily to televised images of both leaders, until the 1978 election
(Cleveland, 1980). And then, despite the rise of presidentialism, New
Zealand's essentially stable, bloc-oriented electoral politics meant that
campaign strategies remained largely unchanged. This included an
ongoing opposition to reliance on polling and direct mail techniques in
order to target particular sections of the electorate. This opposition to
modern campaign techniques was to relax for Labour in 1987, then for
National in 1990, in the face of rapidly increasing voting fluidity, voter
cynicism, and declines in turnout - all of which diminished electoral
predictability.
By far the most important source of the recent rise in New Zealand's
electoral fracture was Labour's dramatic policy volte face following its
election in 1984. After a half-century commitment to Keynesian
economics, welfare provision, an alliance with the unions and broad
government intervention, the fourth Labour government resolutely
affirmed a set of monetarist, market-oriented policies that echoed
those of Thatcherism (Boston, 1987). More specifically Labour
pursued cuts in marginal income tax rates, public sector cutbacks
and a fundamental reduction in the redistributive role of the state.
Altogether Labour's policy reversals suggested, especially to its own
parliamentary elite, the potential for electoral upheaval. Leading into
the 1987 election Labour's programme was being portrayed across the
political landscape as a betrayal of both its philosophical roots and of
its erstwhile loyalists: union members, working-class constituents and
the welfare-dependent. At the same time, its pursuit of market
liberalisation and tax reductions was viewed as largely benefiting its
historical opponents: big business, white collar employees and, to a
lesser degree, farmers.
In short, the 1987 election in New Zealand was called amidst
unprecedented electoral flux. Given the perception of dismantled
voting blocs, the Labour government would need to attract cross-
class support from dissimilar, increasingly cynical electoral bases. At
the same time it would need to convince a shell-shi:>cked electorate
that, despite the policy reversals, its long-term strategies would be
David Denemark 165
the August election, with the placing of the first Sunday newspaper
advertisements beginning roughly three months before election day in
an attempt, based on early polling results, to 'set the agenda on the key
issues' (interview). The formal campaign was launched in Christchurch
on 27 July, beginning three weeks of intensive media barrages, the
leader's tour and virtually constant polling and direct mail appeals.
In 1987 New Zealand MPs were strictly limited to spending no more
than NZ$5000 on their personal campaigns in the final three months.
However, the political parties operated virtually without restrictions,
either in terms of spending limits or declarations of sources. Reflecting
these rules Labour pursued an intensive three year centralised strategy
to maximise its national-level funds and to reserve those funds
virtually wholly for use in key marginal seats and for the centrally
dictated regimen of polling, research and advc:rtising. Sources of funds
included the traditional ones of party members and supporters and
union affiliation fees which are often increased, for political purposes,
in election years. But importantly, if politically sensitively, Labour
benefited dramatically from business contributions, reflecting the
fourth Labour government's increasingly pro-business stances (Wil-
son, 1989, p. 117).
Labour's twelve month budget was varyingly estimated at between
NZ$2-3.5 million, with the high end of the range the most likely of the
estimates. The party's chief press secretary, Ross Vintiner, suggests
that 60 to 70 per cent of the budget was spent on advertising
(interview). Other key costs were marginal electorate polling, qualita-
tive research, print and radio advertising and Labour's expensively
produced television advertisements (Wilson interview).
Labour employed John Utting, of the Australian Labor party, to
coordinate its qualitative polling, thereby introducing the influence of
Australian electoral techniques, long reliant on sophisticated polls.
Several firms conducted quantitative polls for Labour in the early
stages, though the Auckland firm, Insight, was used exclusively during
the campaign to sustain a regimen of tracking polls at the national
level and within key marginals. In the final three weeks a national
tracking poll was conducted every three days (Vintiner interview). The
Wellington firm, Colenso- which had been responsible for National's
advertisements in 1975- was in charge of Labour's advertising, while
Baldwin Boyle provided public relations advice (James, 1987).
From the outset it seems clear the Labour party and campaign elite
embraced polling and market research as the basis for both the
campaign's overall design and for its specific issue formulation.
/)avid Denemark 167
(the Australia, New Zealand, United States treaty for mutual protec-
tion). However, other groups and issues remained essentially untar-
geted, reflecting Bradford's late arrival and the fact that president
Young 'didn't have much idea of targeting anyway, and [leader] Jim
Bolger was more interested in the big picture messages rather than
deep targeting' (Bradford interview). Similarly, little follow-up quali-
tative polling and consistent quantitative polling was pursued. Natio-
nal ran a nationwide poll only once every three months until the last
period before the election and then only two or three in the last two
months (Bradford interview). Relying then on published polls, ad hoc
polls and polls run separately by local party divisions, whole areas in
New Zealand remained unsurveyed, or had been polled in a manner
that 'left something to be desired'. The consequence was an inability to
adjust National's campaign away from its deleterious negativism and
its continued reliance on an 'old style of political advertising which
concentrated on glossy images ... sloganeering rather than rock-solid
messages' (Bradford interview).
In short, despite the fact that the core National campaign leadership
relied on the advice of its advertising firm and utilised qualitative
research to design its advertisements, it seems clear it did not have the
resources; the organisational coherence, or the strategic will to pursue
the ongoing, rigorous, modem campaign that Labour had followed
from the outset. In 1987 National remained suspicious of polling and
targeting and the expert-based professionalism they demand.
daily meetings were held to discuss each day's events, to make any
necessary strategic shifts, and to schedule Lange into only key areas,
particularly those marginal seats on Labour's poll-derived 'hitlist.'
Thus, at a time when Labour was undergoing its most drastic policy
reorientation and was internally divided particularly on its economic
programme, the party none the less successfully orchestrated a tightly
structured campaign regimen that allowed it to convey its desired
image of competent leadership. According to Wilson it also allowed
the party to resist local electorate 'parochialism' with its inevitable
demands on resources and time. Instead, following the dictates of the
central strategists and media and polling experts, campaign staff could
'redirect money and people from one part to another during the
campaign' (Wilson, 1989, p. 139). Though this clearly involved a
strategic ascendancy for professionals in the Labour campaign, it
would seem Wilson managed to achieve the unlikely compliance, if
not active cooperation, of traditional elements within the party
organisation.
Finally, Labour's disciplined organisational structure allowed the
party to focus instrumentally on the new technologies being employed
effectively for the first time. Most importantly, this involved centrally
controlled computer-based direct mail and fund-raising. Though
initially wary of the head office computerising the party's whole
membership and financial system, local party organisations seemed
to yield to the need for centralised control of the direct mail process.
This technique was used both for conveying particularistic messages to
targeted groups in Labour's eight to ten key marginal seats and, under
the supervision of Mike Williams, for Labour's successful nationwide
fund-raising efforts in 1987 - crucial overall for enabling Labour to
purchase its expensive polling and advertising expertise (James, 1987).
Altogether Labour's organisational professionalism virtually echoed
and helped to sustain the professional 'modem campaign' techniques
it had so actively embraced. It was a discipline virtually unseen in the
National camp.
If the success of Labour's modern campaign was premised on its
creation of a centralised, disciplined campaign organisation, Natio-
nal's failure to build a viable campaign was equally the product of its
lack of a commitment to a unified, centralised structure to enable it to
pursue resource allocation, polling, targeted appeals and media
management. As suggested above, National entered the 1987 cam-
paign deeply divided over both its leadership and its programmatic
orientation (James and McRobie, 1987). This ideological and leader-
172 New Zealand: The 1987 Campaign
THE RESULT
Despite its dramatic policy volteface between 1984 and 1987 Labour
was manifestly successful in its strategy to convince voters of its need
for 'three more years'. It appeared to have 'ridden a wave of residual
loyalties to reelection' (Denemark, 1990, p. 76) and, at least in 1987, to
have side-stepped the potential for profound electoral backlash from
its own supporters whose interests were so obviously threatened by the
fourth Labour government's programmatic reforms. This was accom-
plished, above all, by Labour 'using its professional skills to the fullest'
and thereby 'maximising votes where they counted most' (Boston and
Jackson, 1988, p. 72). That is, reflecting Labour's considered profes-
sional strategies from the outset, the central reason for Labour's
success was its victory in New Zealand's seventeen most marginal
seats. Despite an overall two party nationwide swing to National since
1984, Labour realised a shift in its favour of 0.4 per cent in these
marginals and a net gain of two seats.
180 New· Zealand: The 1987 Campaign
1987 1984
Seats Votes Seats Votes Change
(%) (%) (%)
National 39 44.0 37 35.9 + 8.1
Labour 58 48.0 56 43.0 + 5.0
Social Credit
(Democrat) 0 5.1 2 7.6 -1.9
New Zealand
party 0 0.3 0 12.2 -11.9
Note
References
183
184 The USA: The 1990 Congressional Campaign
(the exceptions being those states with only one representative) was
likely to change and could be changed substantially before those who
won in 1990 would stand for re-election.
Before assessing the role of party organisations in congressional
campaigns it is first necessary to identify them. Often the national
committee of each party is taken to be the party organisation. In fact
each of the two major American parties has two additional indepen-
dent and coequal committees, the Democratic Congressional Cam-
paign Committee (DCCC) and National Republican Campaign
Committee (NRCC) in the House of Representatives and the Demo-
cratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and National Repu-
blican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) in the Senate. While each party's
committees share the goal of maximising partisan presence by electoral
means, the similarities end there. Both their constituencies and their
functions differ. The national committee nominally is responsible to
and composed of representatives of the state parties, although the
national committee of the president's party generally is dominated,
and its chairman named, by him. Its primary responsibility is the
presidential election although it also provides technical and other
assistance to state and local parties. The House and Senate commit-
tees, on the other hand, are creatures of their respective party caucuses
and are primarily concerned with the election of members of their own
chambers. All the party committees offer candidates (incumbents and
challengers) support in both cash and 'in-kind' contributions, subject
to various statutory limitations. The two questions, both of which we
would answer in the negative at least in the case of congressional
elections, are whether any or all of these committees make contribu-
tions to individual campaigns that are large enough or central enough,
and whether the actions of the committees are sufficiently coordinated
or controlling, for the campaign to be described as a 'party campaign'.
Both the impact of legal restrictions on party support of candidates
and the more general strategic problems of campaigning for the House
are quite different from those of campaigning for the Senate. Looking
first at the general differences, senators, and especially first time
senatorial candidates, are usually far more experienced, more widely
known and often personally richer than their House counterparts. A
typical senatorial district (that is a state) will include many media
markets; an urban House district will often represent only a fraction of
a single market. 5 Aside from making the decision whether to buy
media time easier for a senatorial candidate, this also means that
senatorial campaigns are more likely to be regarded as newsworthy.
186 The USA: The 1990 Congressional Campaign
PARTY CAMPAIGNING
Planning
Particularly since the mid-1970s the six party committees have been
year round operations with permanent premises. Although the size of
the staffs ebbs and flows with the electoral cycle, all six committees
have core staff that begin campaigning for the next election often
before the last election has taken place. With a fixed election cycle,
plans can be laid years in advance. In 1990 the national committees of
both parties, but especially the Republicans, devoted much of their
effort to planning for the post-reapportionment, 1992 elections. The
actual effectiveness of such planning is limited by a number of factors,
however. First, of course, is the force of changing circumstances; the
parties basically are unable to predict, let alone determine, which
issues will be significant or which candidates will choose to run in any
particular election. Second, the fragmented nature of American
politics means both that there is unlikely to be any single strategy
that would be uniformly effective and little press or public expectation
that a party will have a uniform national strategy. Third, although all
the committees have a core of permanent staff positions, turnover of
staff members is extremely high with the inevitable effect on continuity
of planning. Finally, one should remember that the fixed election cycle
encourages advanced planning by all the participants in the electoral
process including political commentators, potential candidates and the
various firms and consultants within the campaign industry.
188 The USA: The 1990 Congressional Campaign
Recruitment
Resource Allocation
Incumbent Incumbent Incumbent, no Challenger Challenger Democratic Rep. open Rep. seat
Contribution" won lost contest won lost open seat seat help by won by
help by Rep. Democrats
Democrats
Nothing 45 1 21 45 2 1
Token 70 1 22 32 1 4
Small 56 1 5 3 14 1 3 4
Large 17 3 4 21 3 4 1
Maximum 2 1 3 1
House Republicans
Nothing 9 3 1 148 4
Token 79 1 25 18 1
Small 12 2 4 2 12 5 1 1
Large 6 6 1 1
Maximum 6 6 3 11 6 4 3
Senate Democrats
Nothing 2 4
Token 1
Small 4 2
Large 6 1 1 1
Maximum 4 5 2
Senate Republicans
Nothing
TokeD 1
Small 1 2 2
Large 1 1
Maximum 10 1 10 3
Notes
a. Party contributions are classified according to the following scheme:
House Senate
Nothing $0 so
Token $1-2500 $1-$5000
Small $2501-$20000 $5001-20 per cent of1egal maximum
Large $20001-$50000 20 per cent- 87 per cent oflegal maximum
\0
Maximum $50001-$60000 over 87 per cent of legal maximum -
192 The USA.' The 1990 Congressional Campaign
parties give everything they are allowed to all their candidates. The
House figures are more illuminating. Contrary to reports from
committee staffers (Amend, Dunn, Grotta interviews), both parties
on average make larger contributions to open-seat races, followed by
contributions to challengers, with incumbents receiving the smallest
average contributions. Despite efforts to target contributions to
incumbents who were in trouble both parties missed some important
races. 7 As the 'n's show, not all candidates who receive party support
receive both kinds of support. There is a significant tendency here for
the House Democrats to receive support in the form of coordinated
expenditures while Republicans are more likely to receive cash;
moreover, when the Republicans make coordinated expenditures on
behalf of a candidate they appear to be much larger than those made
by the Democrats.
In assessing the utility of party committee contributions to individ-
ual candidates it is necessary to supplement the figures with a note of
political realism. American campaigns are directed locally; cash to
help pay the bills the candidate chooses to incur is always useful.
Coordinated expenditures may take the form of agreement to pay
those same bills, in which case they are equally useful, but they may
take other forms as well. At the other extreme, the party committee
may conduct a statewide poll and provide the results to candidates -
consequently reporting the assessed value as a coordinated expendi-
ture - even though the candidates have no interest in, or use for, the
data. On the other hand, even when coordinated expenditures are of
little use to the candidate they may be of great use to the party. A large
number of relatively small coordinated expenditures can make a party
seem very active in the great constellation of congressional races even
if it has little or no impact in individual races. For the party
committees the appearance of making extensive contributions may
be more important than the reality. 8 Finally, Table 10.2 shows that
even in those cases in which the parties 'max-out' in their contributions
to a candidate, total party support is still only a very small fraction of
the cost of a competitive American congressional campaign.
Campaign Issues
All the party committees offer advice and counsel regarding the
selection of issues and issue positions. What is most striking about
this advice, however, is that, although there is a nominal party line,
candidates are rarely punished for deviating from it. Indeed should a
Table 10.2 US party contributions and candidate disbursements by party, chamber, and incumbency status
Coordination
The United States leads the world in the development and application
of high-tech tools for campaigning. Significantly, while the party
committees may act as intermediaries between candidates and the
vendors of these tools and in some cases may provide services directly
to candidates, the market is dominated by private contractors. Indeed,
while the House committees target a limited number of races (usually
about fifty) for intensive investment, a candidate generally must
establish a strong personal campaign as a prerequisite for party
support. Although the party committees were instrumental both in
developing many of the new techniques and in giving the leading
private operatives their starts, the committees are no longer the
directors of the campaign industry but merely one of its many
components. The campaign industry itself has boomed in the last
fifteen years. It has its own (non-partisan) trade association, the
American Association of Political Consultants. According to industry
publications, vendors specialise in the following: advertising agencies,
computer services (including both rentals and specialised software),
direct mail, fund-raising consultants, general consultants ('full service'
agencies), issue/petition management, list brokers and compilers (for
direct mail), media consultants, paraphernalia, polling/survey re-
198 The USA: The 1990 Congressional Campaign
RESULTS
The I990 congressional election was the only one after the war in
which 'the mean vote for incumbents of both parties fell' (Jacobson,
I 990). Despite this apparent anti-incumbent bias only I 5 of 406
Representatives and one of 35 Senators seeking re-election were
defeated. Overall only one Senate seat changed hands (from Republi-
can to Democrat) and only 19 House seats (with a net gain of 8 for the
Democrats plus the election of the only Socialist congressman, at the
expense of the Republicans). As shown in Table 10.3 the final line-up
in the House was 267 Democrats, 167 Republicans and one Socialist
who asked to join the Democratic caucus; in the Senate the net
outcome was 56 Democrats to 44 Republicans. Although one cannot
find the Democrats with a map in presidential politics they continue to
have a stranglehold on Congress.
Jacobson suggests one reason why neither party was able to
capitalise on anti-incumbent feelings in the electorate. By the time
these had become apparent, the nominees had already been deter-
mined, if not formally then because strong potential challengers had
already decided to wait until the new district lines were drawn for
1992. Another reason is the safety of most Congressional seats. With
an average vote percentage of over 65 per cent in 1988 most
incumbents could survive swings far larger than the 3.9 per cent that
actually occurred. Moreover, it is easy to mistake hostility towards
incumbents in general for opposition to particular incumbents. As
Fenno observed many years ago not only do Americans who dislike
Congress like their own congressmen, they like them for doing
precisely those things that they dislike in the institution as a whole -
supporting pork-barrel legislation (in this case 'vital federal projects'
in their own districts) and protecting special interests (in this qase their
constituents themselves) (Fenno, 1975).
200 The USA': The 1990 Congressional Campaign
House of Representatives
Total Democrats Republicans Other
Senate
Total Democrats Republicans Other
Note:
In the House 'all races' excludes seven districts in Louisiana (decided by
primary) and five in Florida (uncontested). In total there were 350 races in
which both major parties fielded candidates.
Source: Congressional Quarterly, 23 February 1991, p. 487.
Although there was little turnover of seats, the 1990 campaign had a
significant impact within the party organisations in government. The
case in point is the aforementioned dispute between the NRCC's co-
chair Ed Rollins and President Bush. Even though it is impossible to
measure the effect of the Rollins memo in electoral terms, given the
stability of congressional incumbency and the final result of the
elections, it is safe to say that it did not alter electoral outcomes
significantly. However, the Rollins-Bush dispute had substantial
political impact within the congressional Republican party, prompt-
ing a leadership challenge to NRCC chairman, Guy Vander Jagt (the
first since his initial election to the post fifteen years earlier). Vander
Jagt successfully defended his position although Rollins ultimately
chose to resign, returning to private consulting. The leadership
challenge, however, left the Republicans in considerable disarray.
Many congressional Republicans claimed to have supported Vander
Jagt precisely because the challenger (Donald Sundquist) was too
closely linked to the White House (Mattingly, 1990b). Some re-elected
incumbents and newly successful challengers who did not think the
Richard S. Katz and Robin Kolodny 201
Notes
1. In researching this chapter the following were interviewed: Deb Amend,
assistant campaign director, NRCC; Anita Dunn, communications dir-
ector, DSCC; John Grotta, director of voter programmes, NRSC; John
Maddox, director of the campaign division; NRCC.
2. Prior registration in a party (in some cases as little as ten days) is a
prerequisite for voting in its primary election in only twenty-six of the fifty
states.
3. In fact in a growing minority of cases the only opposition is in the party
primary. In these cases elections are nearly simultaneous contests (because
states hold their primaries on different days) between groups of candidates
who incidentally have the same party label.
4. In 1988 average party unity scores were 0.80 for Democrats and 0.74 for
Republicans in the House of Representatives (0.78 and 0.68 respectively in
the Senate). In 1989 the four corresponding figures were 0.81, 0.72, 0.78,
and 0.78 (Congressional Quarterly, 1989, 35B).
5. At the extreme, each of the New Jersey congressional districts is only part
of a broadcast media market that primarily serves another state.
202 The USA.• The 1990 Congressional Campaign
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ington Post (20 June), p. A28.
Tufte, E. (1975), 'Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional
Elections', American Political Science Review (September), pp. 812-26.
11 The Informed Electorate?
Voter Responsiveness to
Campaigns in Britain and
Germany 1
Shaun Bowler, David Broughton,
Todd Donovan and Joseph Snipp
204
S. Bowler, D. Broughton, T. Donovan and J. Snipp 205
from elections where we also know what were the aims of the party
campaign. We can then try to link the two parts of the campaign
process - voter behaviour and party behaviour. The British and
German general elections of 1983 provide us with the necessary
evidence. A comparative study of campaigning (Farrell and Wort-
mann, 1987) provides us with an explicit account of party campaign
intentions for those two countries from within a common frame of
reference, whilst sample surveys for both provide us with the necessary
individual level data. We turn first to examine the case of Britain.
tion along a similar scale where -10 reflected 'get rid' of weapons, and
+ 10 stood for 'increase'. Finally, on social policy, a -10 response
indicates a perception that Conservatives seek to increase social
services, while a + 10 represents a perception that the party's policy
was to 'keep taxes down'.
Standard Deviation
4.0 l..-----..-------..-----.------r-----...1
lowest spending Highest spending
The total sample of 2151 valid survey responses was divided into
quartiles according to the level of local spending by Conservative
candidates (expressed as a percentage of total spending). The first
quartile includes individuals residing in constituencies where the party
spent the least and the fourth where they spent the most. The
perceptions of the Conservative position on all these issues are most
varied among respondents living in constituencies where Conservative
spending was lower. In constituencies where the Conservative party
spent least, respondents were more likely to place the Conservatives at
either end of the scale when identifying the party's position on
macroeconomic priorities, industry ownership, social services and
212 The Informed Electorate?
Notes
N=2103
The figures in parentheses are the standard errors.
•• =significant at .05 level or better
Table 11.2 The impact of campaign effort and the emphasised campaign
themes on the vote for the Conservative party, 1983
LOGIT estimates
Constant 2.97
Q59A .01
(.02)
Q11 1.03••
(.06)
STRNGCON .50..
(.13)
UNEMPLOY -.09
(.14)
CONPROP .54..
(.15)
Q2H1 .09
(.07)
Q56 -.001
(.002)
QSOA .087..
. (.03)
Q2A -.17..
(.08)
BLUCOL -.Is··
(.07)
Q19B .74••
(.08)
Q18A2 .26° 0
(.06)
Q16B .77..
(.08)
evidence that the course of campaign events and activity shaped voter
perceptions of the Conservative party, not least because questions of
causality cannot be resolved by cross-sectional data.
Targeted issues
Unemployment (Nov) 37.5
Unemployment (Feb) 45.5 +8.0 5.33
Targeted issues
Average unweighted change +6.7
Non-targeted issues
Citizen part. (Nov) 20.4
Citizen part. (Feb) 20.7 +0.3 0.30
Non-targeted issues
Average unweighted change + 1.45
Table 11.4 The Berelson paradox and the German electorate: change in
attitudes to the CDU-CSU by level of general interest in
politics in 1983
Targeted issues
Unemployment +7.2 +4.8 +9.6
(2.17) (0.99) (3.68)
US Relations +3.0 +4.0 +5.5
(0.85) (0.78) (1.96)
Pensions +4.0 +5.8 +7.6
(1.20) (1.10) (2.91)
National Debt +2.2 +7.7 +7.0
(0.64) (1.54) (2.57)
Unweighted average +4.1 +5.5 +7.4
Non-targeted issues
Missiles -0.8 -2.2 +1.1
(0.46) (0.78) (0.49)
Foreign workers + 1.5 -8.2 +3.8
(0.45) (1.68) (1.43)
Environment + 1.5 +1.4 +4.0
(0.52) (0.34) (1.77)
Law & order -3.4 -2.0 -0.9
(1.07) (0.40) (0.33)
Citizen
participation -2.9 + 1.9 + 1.7
(1.02) (0.53) (0.75)
Unweighted average -0.8 -0.9 + 1.9
In order to establish that the shifts seen in Table 11.3 were due to
the CDU-CSU campaign, it is important to look at the potential shifts
of voter perception of the SPD, the CDU-CSU's main opponents.
S. Bowler, D. Broughton, T. Donovan and J. Snipp 219
Non-targeted issues
Missiles +6.9•• +0.9 +5.6••
Foreign workers +2.2 -0.1 -0.4
Environment -1.8 -4.3 •• -4.5 ••
Law & order +3.9 -6.3 •• -2.9
Citizen participation +1.5 -4.1 •• +6.3 ••
CONCLUDING REMARKS
The form and function of the modern political campaign has come
under attack in many societies. Analysts bemoan the substitution of
finance for substance in the election strategies of the parties. Neverthe-
less, politicians do spend great amounts of time and money choosing
issues, with varying degrees of success, that they believe will sway the
electorate's mind. It is this very connection between money and votes,
this electoral 'black box', which is crucial to understanding democracy
and yet it remains the least examined. In this chapter we have shown
that since most voters make their choices with limited information,
attempts to increase voter awareness can translate into more votes. To
this end, parties do have strategies which contain and convey
information over policy choices and, more importantly, this informa-
tion can be successfully transmitted to the electorate. In some cases
this can mean changing a previously held opinion. In many more cases
it can mean a voter forming an opinion on an issue, perhaps for the
first time. In terms of normative democratic theory this is no mean
achievement. Campaigns and campaigning can be seen as a central
and essential part of the democratic process in providing a necessary
informational base from which a deliberative citizenry can begin its
deliberations.
Notes
3. The CSU campaign was not specifically included in the Farrell and
Wortmann study. However, since the CSU only campaigns in Bavaria,
this does not affect the following national analysis.
References
Ansolabehere, S., Behr, R. and Iyengar, S. (1991), 'Mass Media and Elections:
An Overview', American Politics Quarterly, 19, pp. 109-39.
Bartels, L. M. (1988), Presidential Primaries and the Dynamics of Public Choice
(Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press).
Berelson, B. R. (1952), Content Analysis in Communication Research (Glencoe,
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- - Lazarsfeld, P. F. and McPhee, W. N. (1954), Voting (Chicago: University
of Chicago Press).
Bochel, J. M. and Denver, D. T. (1972), 'The Impact of the Campaign on the
Results of Local Government Elections', British Journal of Political Science,
2, pp. 239-44.
Bohrnstedt, G. W. and Knoke, D. (1982), Statistics for Social Science Data
Analysis (Itasca, Ill: F. E. Peacock Publishers).
Bowler, S. (1990), 'Voter Perceptions and Party Strategies: An Empirical
Approach', Comparative Politics, 23, pp. 61-83.
Brody, R. A. and Page, B. I. (1973), 'Indifference, Alienation and Rational
Decisions: The Effects of Candidate Evaluations on Turnout and the Vote',
Public Choice, 15, pp. 1-17.
Budge, I. and Farlie, D. (1983a), 'Party Competition- Selective Emphasis or
Direct Confrontation? An Alternative View with Data', in H. Daalder and
P. Mair (eds), Western European Party Systems: Continuity and Change
(London: Sage).
- - (1983b), Explaining and Predicting Elections: Issue Effects and Party
Strategies in Twenty-Three Democracies (London: George Allen & Unwin).
Butler, D. and Kavanagh, D. (1984), The British General Election of 1983
(London: Macmillan).
Campbell, A., Converse, P. E., Miller W. E. and Stokes, D. E. (1960), The
American Voter (New York: Wiley).
Chapman, R. G. and Palda, K. S. (1989), 'Econometric Models of Voting and
Campaigning', in M. Margolis and G. A. Mauser (eds), Manipulating Public
Opinion (Pacific Grove, Ca: Brooks/Cole).
Converse, P. E. (1962), 'Information Flow and the Stability of Partisan
Attitudes', Public Opinion Quarterly, 26, pp. 578-99.
Denver, D. T. and Hands, G. (1972), 'Turnout and Marginality in Local
Elections: A Comment', British Journal of Political Science, 2, pp. 513-15.
Downs, A. (1957), An Economic Theory of Democracy (New York: Harper &
Row).
Farrell, D. M. and Wortman, M. (1987), 'Party Strategies in the Electoral
Market: Political Marketing in West Germany, Britain and Ireland',
European Journal of Political Research, 15, pp. 297-318.
222 The Informed Electorate?
223
224 Conclusion: The Contemporary Election Campaign
CAMPAIGN ENVIRONMENT
CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES
For almost all the parties examined in this collection the overriding
strategic aim involved either the maintenance or increase of vote share
with, not surprisingly, incumbent parties on the whole favouring
maintenance of vote share rather than its increase. Of course, there
are various ways of achieving such goals, and it is these which would
seem to open up room for a great deal of diversity in the means by
which campaigns are conducted. This, too, has undergone some
sweeping changes in the fairly recent past in a way which could be
summarised as a gradual shift from labour-intensive campaign
practices to more capital-intensive campaign practices. Such trends
add up to a reduced role for the activists and a far greater role for the
newer technologies of media and telecommunications, a greater
emphasis on scientific gathering of voter feedback, and increased
campaign coordination from the centre. To put it more concretely,
there appear to be three main ways by which the means and methods
of campaigning can be seen to have been changing in recent years: the
use of agencies and consultants; television campaigning and the use of
new technologies of communication in general; methods of obtaining
'objective' feedback. Let us deal with each of these in tum.
It is no exaggeration to state that the use of advertising agencies by
parties is the norm in campaigning. Of course, there is nothing very
startling about that. Parties have been using advertising agencies for a
very long time. The main determinant is sufficient finance. It is when
we start to consider other possible functions for specialist agencies or
political consultants that the question of 'taste' or, perhaps, ideologi-
cal preference appears to be more relevant, and the variations which
occur not only separate one system from another, they also separate
one party from another. As expected, the American and French case
studies reveal the predominance of political consultancy, in the former
case the role of the parties appears to be little more than as service
agencies for the candidates' campaigns, in the latter case we were
228 Conclusion: The Contemporary Election Campaign
number of chapters to the use of electronic mail and fax links. It has
also affected more generally the communication and distribution
strategies of parties. We see this in a number of cases in the growing
use of direct mail techniques. Katz and Kolodny refer to such 'new
tools' in the 1990 US congressional elections as satellite links, CD-
ROM data bases of information on voters and video mail.
All chapters demonstrate the increasing importance of television as
a tool in election campaigning; as shown most dramatically by
Lubbers' difficulties in maintaining positive coverage in the Dutch
1989 campaign, or the efforts French candidates had to make in order
to attract adequate television coverage, or the difficulty Finnish parties
had in prising media attention away from the Gulf War, prompting
Sundberg and Hognabba to comment (p. 94) that 'free elections in a
modern democracy would easily collapse if the mass media ... were
to ignore election campaigning'. Research on campaigning in Norway
(Bj~rklund, 1991) and Sweden (Esaiasson, 1991) also refer to how
campaigns are increasingly 'media-driven'.
Concern over the increased reliance on media campaigning by parties
in part underlay the Australian Labor government's recent proposed
ban on all political advertising on radio and television. The basis for the
proposed ban was the report of a parliamentary committee which
showed that spending on political advertising on the airwaves had
risen by 109 per cent between 1984 and 1987, and this in a country where
parties are also allowed access to free broadcasts. According to a recent
report in Campaign magazine, '[n]ationwide election campaigns now
cost each major Australian party approximately [US]$7.7 or 90 cents
per capita, whereas the 1988 Bush and Dukakis campaigns [spent] ...
33 cents per capita'. 2 The Labor government's proposal has provoked
an outspoken and concerted campaign of opposition from the right and
from the broadcasting industry, to such a degree that the plan has been
shelved. This experience indicates the difficulty a government can have
in trying to rein in new campaign practices; that once resources like TV
spots are made available to the parties there is little apparently that can
be done after the event to control or delimit their access. It will be
interesting to see what happens on this score as parties, for instance,
start to make use of satellite television for political broadcasting.
As we have seen, one of the main functions of the various agencies
and consultants is in arranging the advertising campaign. Of all the
other possible functions (for a recent listing of the range of possibilities
in the USA see pp. 197-8), the next most common one is opinion
polling. As we discussed in Chapter 1, this is seen as the main
230 Conclusion: The Contemporary Election Campaign
and Germany, the Swedish People's Party in Finland and the Social-
Liberals and Christian People's Party in Denmark.
Targeting, too, plays a major role in the conduct of any campaign.
Whatever the message, parties across different states are increasingly
adopting similar marketing strategies. For instance, direct mailing
techniques were employed in all the parliamentary campaigns (in-
cluding the USA). Not surprisingly, these party systems often saw
specific appeals to demographic, and in some cases, opinion subgroups
of the population. In that sense campaigns seem to be increasingly
keyed to turning out supporters rather than creating them.
How important the techniques of campaigning are becoming can be
seen to some extent by the judgement passed after the campaign has
ended and the election won or lost. Most of the chapters in this volume
concluded with a discussion of how 'campaigns matter' to election
results. Clearly winners are likely to be less dissatisfied with the
campaign than losers, but the winners are not necessarily the most
interesting group to examine. As we argued in Chapter 1, one of the
flaws of the general literature on campaigning is an overemphasis upon
the campaigns of the winners. The campaigns of the losers also shed
some interesting light on the increased importance of the techniques of
campaigning. The chapters reveal a large number of parties disappoin-
ted at their failure to get across their campaign message. According to
our survey of national experts (see note 1), there are nine parties which
fit into this category (the Social Democrats and National Coalition in
Finland, the Austrian OVP and Greens, the Danish Social-Liberals and
Conservatives, the British Alliance, and Fine Gael and the Progressive
Democrats in Ireland). It is possible to see this either as a failure of the
party's campaign or as the parties blaming the voters for inattentiveness
or distraction. Less ambiguous are other criticisms the parties appear to
have had of their own efforts: a misplaced emphasis, or badly timed
effort or, simply, a failure to counter the other parties campaign. And it
is these latter criticisms, taken together, which seem most common,
underpinning the idea that the process of campaigning is increasingly
important to the success or failure of parties at election time.
CONCLUSION
Perhaps this should come as little surprise. After all, all the parties
studied here are engaged in a broadly similar competition for votes.
Nevertheless, this broad similarity of purpose does not automatically
dictate a convergence of means. Yet in many important respects this is
what we do see across both systems and parties. While the messages of
the various parties may differ - perhaps markedly so - the means of
delivering and marketing such a message and discovering what voters
want, seem broadly similar. All in all, when we consider the central
direction of the campaign, the responsiveness of the party leadership
to poll information and the central role leaders play in the message of
the campaign itself, we see evidence of a broad convergence in
campaigning styles. This in itself is not without consequence for
broader debates on parties and party systems.
Kirchheimer's (1966) description of the 'catch-all' party, in which
party leaders become more dominant, is borne out dramatically across
a wide range of parties in this volume. Much of the debate over
Kirchheimer has focused on the ideological components of party
systems (Dittrich, 1983; Rose and Urwin, 1969; Wolinetz, 1979;
Zuckerman and Lichbach, 1977). Recently authors like Angelo
Panebianco (1988) and Peter Mair (1989) have argued that more
attention· should be given to the organisational consequences of
Kirchheimer's thesis. According to Panebianco (1988, p. 264) these
produce 'electoral-professional' parties which are characterised by
such factors as an increased role for professionals, an emphasis on
elections, pre-eminence of a 'personalized leadership', interest group
and state financing and a stress on issues and leadership. Much of this
adds up to a change in how parties fight election campaigns.
Throughout this volume we have seen evidence which is consistent
with the party organisational trends outlined by Kirchheimer and
described by Panebianco (for further discussion on the British case see
Webb, 1991).
We began, in Chapter I, with a concern that one of the major
intersections of the literature on electoral behaviour and of the
literature on political parties - that of the electoral campaign - has
gone largely unaddressed by political scientists. In this volume there
has been an effort to focus more centrally upon that intersection by
examining nine case studies in a variety of settings. We have now
arrived at the conclusion that there is, for all the diversity of ideologies
and cultures, an underlying similarity to many aspects of campaigns
and campaigning. This is not to say that we collectively present the
final word on the subject. On the contrary, the premise of this volume
234 Conclusion: The Contemporary Election Campaign
Notes
1. Apart from an overview of the nine case studies, much of what follows is
based on replies to a questionnaire of the authors on the parliamentary
election case studies. We are grateful to them for the time they gave to
complete the questionnaire. David Farrell also completed one on the Irish
1989 election. For an account of that election, see Farrell (1990).
2. Campaign, July 1991, p. 6; The Australian, 26 March 1991.
3. It is worth noting in this context that the Irish government recently
announced its intention to introduce legislation banning the commission-
ing or publication of polls in the run up to elections. After some debate,
the issue was dropped.
References
Rose, R. and Urwin, D. (1969), 'Social Cohesion, Political Parties and Strains
in Regimes', Comparative Political Studies, 2, pp. 7-fl7.
Smith, A. (1981), 'Mass Communications', in D. Butler, H. Penniman and A.
Ranney (eds), Democracy at the Polls: A Comparative Study of Competitive
National Elections (Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute).
Webb, P. D. (1991), 'Election Campaigning, Organisational Transformation
and the Professionalisation of the British Labour Party', European Journal
of Political Research.
Wolinetz, S. B. (1979), 'The Transformation of Western European Party
Systems Revisited', West European Politics, 2, pp. 4-28.
Zuckerman, A. and Lichbach, M. I. (1977), 'Stability and Change in European
Electorates', World Politics, 29, pp. 523-51.
Index
Abrams, M., 18, 19 Saatchi and Saatchi, 46, 48,
advance men, 16 49, 67, 71, 150, 228; Snell-
advertisements and posters, 8 Louhivuori-Tallqvist OY, 86;
Australia's proposal to ban Societe Fran~aise d'Enquetes
advertisements, 229 par Sondages (SOFRES),
case studies: Austria, 38; Britain, 106; Ted Bates, 168, 172;
46, 58; Denmark, 65, 67, 71, Trizeps, 31; USP Helsinki
73, 76; Finland, 85, 86, 87; OY, 87; von Mannstein,
France, 103-4, 117; Political Communication, 29,
Germany, 129, 131, 133, 134, 32; Young & Rubicam, 46, 48
136-7; Netherlands, 148, 149, see also political consultants
150, 151, 152, 153, 158, 159; AgranofT, R., 2, 3, 12, 18, 19
New Zealand, 168, 169, 172, Abo, E., 95
175, 176, 177, 178 Aktion '90, 32
agencies, 12-13 Alexander, H., 8, 19, 225, 234
advertising agencies, 227 'Alliance of Free Democrats'
firms: Abbot, Mead & Vickers, 47; (Germany), 126
Adax OY, 87; ARA, 151; 'Alliance for Germany', 125, 127
BJM (opinion) Research Alliance (UK) Planning Group, 50
Associates, 46; Bloom, 180; Amend, D., 192, 201
Bonare OY, 85; Brule et Andersen, N.C., 80
Vigne Associes (BVA), 106; Andersson, C., 94
Colenso, 166, 175; Colmar Anso1abehere, S., 205, 221
and Brunton, 168, 172; Archer, J., 48
Comdok, 133; Conseils, Arndt, J., 6, 19
Sondages, Analyses (CSA), Arnim, H.-H. von, 121, 142
106; Crone Film, 66; FCB/ Arter, D., 83, 99
Hiort, Stenius & Walter, 68; Ashdown, P., 60
Finnish Gallup, 85, 230; Atkinson, M., 18, 19
Focus OY, 85; Gallup, 46; Attali, J ., 109
Gould-Mattinson Associates, Auken, S., 65, 68, 75, 76, 77
47, 49; Harris, 46; HDM, Austrian Greens' ballot paper
149; Insight, 166, 180; Institut difficulties, 37-8
Fran~ais d'Opinion Publique
(IFOP), 106; InterView, 148, Bakker, E., 152, 154
153; Kauppamainos OY, 86; Balz, D., 194, 203
Louis-Harris France, 106; Banks, J., 49
MARPLAN, 47; Market and Barre, R., 109, 110, 111, 112, 114
Opinion Research Bartels, L. M., 206, 210, 221
International (MORI), 47; Bartels, R., 6, 19
Meyson, 153; My & Grey Bates, S., 18, 20
OY, 87; NAVAR, 151; Nipo, BBC, 45, 61
153; Nordisk Film, 68; Bean, C., 163, 182
Nl'lrgaard Mikkelsen, 66; Beck, A., 150
237
238 Index
Herd, P., 61 Kohl, H., 15, 122, 123, 128, 139, 141
Hermans, 150 Koivisto, J., 99
Herrnson, P., 197, 203, 223, 234 Kok, W., 149, 150, 154, 156, 158, 160,
Hewitt, P., 45, 47, 56, 57, 61 162
Hiebert, R., 18, 20 Kolodny, R., 18, 223, 229
Hiort, P., 68, 227 Konrad Adenauer Foundation, 13,
Hofstetter, C.R., 18, 20 128
Hognabba, S., 224, 229 Koole, R., 148, 154, 161, 162
Holmberg, S., 205, 206, 222 Korner, U., 142
Holsteyn, J. J. M., 149, 162 Kotler, P., 5, 6, 21
Howe, Sir G., 49 Kramer, G., 2, 21
Huet, S., 108, 120 Kurjian, D., 18, 21
Hughes, C., 49, 61
Hurd, D., 49 Labour party (New Zealand)
reorganisation, 165, 170, 171
Irvine, W., 7, 20 Labour party's (UK) Campaign
Irwin, G. A., 149, 162 Management Committee, 49
Iyengar, S., 221 Labour party's (UK) Campaign
Strategy Committee (CSC), 49,
Jackson, K., 179, 182 50
Jacobson, G., 195, 199, 203, 207, 222 Labour party's (UK) Shadow
James, C., 166, 167, 168, 170, 171, Communication Agency (SCA),
174, 180, 181, 182 47, 49, 51
Jamieson, K. H., 18, 20 Lacina, F., 35
Jarreau, P;, 108, 120 Lacy, J., 48
Jelved, M., 70 Lafontaine, 0., 132, 139, 141
Jensen, K. B., 80 Lajoinie, A., 113, 114, 115
Jeppesen, B., 80 Lamare, J., 163, 182
Johnston, R.J., 206, 209, 222 Lancelot, A., 106
Jones, R., 20 Lange, D., 170, 171, 171
Joslyn, R., 155, 162 Lanoue, D., 206, 222
Jospin, L., 109 Lawson, Sir C., 48
Juppe, A., 109 Lawson, K., 101, 120
Lawson, N., 49
Kiiiiriiiinen, S., 86 Lazarsfeld, P. F., 221
Kandolin, S., 94 leader image, 7, 9, 16, 231-2
Karvonen, L., 223, 234 case studies: Austria, 36-7; Britain,
Kasse, M., 126, 127, 135, 139, 142 56, 208; Denmark, 73, 75, 76,
Katz, D., 2, 20 71, 79; Finland, 88, 90, 94, 95;
Katz, R.S., 8, 18, 21, 223, 229 France, 113; Germany, 131;
Kavanagh, D., 2, 19, 45, 47, 49, 50, Netherlands, 146, 155-6, 158;
61, 208, 212, 221 New Zealand, 175, 179
Kelley, S., 18, 21 leaders' tour
Kenworthy, T., 198, 203 case studies: Austria, 39; France,
Kernell, S., 184, 203 117; New Zealand, 170, 175,
Kinnock, N., 44, 49, 54, 55, 56, 59 176, 177, 178
Kirchheimer, 0., 9, 21, 233, 234 Lecanuet, J., 102
Kleinhenz, T., 142 LeDuc, L., 61, 222
Knoke, D., 216, 221 Legavre, J.-B., 111, 120
242 Index
LePen, J. M., 112-13, 114 McRobie, A., 171, 180, 181, 182
Levine, S., 164, 182 media
Levy, s. J., 6, 21 coverage: in Austria, 25-6, 33-4;
Lhomeau, J.-Y., 112, 120 Finland, 93-4, 95, 97; France,
Liberal-SOP (UK) tensions, 55 103,1 16-17;Netherlands, 155,
Lichbach, M.l., 233, 235 156, 160; New Zealand, 177
Lijphart, A., 144, 162 horse-race coverage, 9
Lindon, D., 5, 21 in campaigns, 3, 17
Lippe, G., 142 rules on coverage, 8, 10, 225
Lotito, E., 20 system: in Austria, 25-6;
Lubbers, R., 146, 147, 155-6, 157, Denmark, 64; Netherlands,
158, 229 145
Luck, D.J., 6, 21 see also newspapers; television
Luntz, F., 8, 12, 21, 196, 197, 198, Mestre, P., llO
203 Meth-Cohn, D., 27, 41
Lupfer, M., 2, 21, 22 Meynaud, H. Y., 120
Mielke, G., 122, 143
Maas, K., 161 Militant tendency, 54, 57
Maddox, J., 194, 201 Miller, W. E., 221
Madelin, H., 107, 120 Miller, W. L., 2, 20, 44, 53, 55, 56, 57,
Mair, P., 233, 234 58-9, 61, 220, 222
Major, J., 60 Mills, S., l67, 182
Mandelson, P., 47, 49, 50, 56, 57, 61 Mintz, E., 18, 21
Mannelli, G., 5, 21 Mintzel, 131
Marchais, G., 113 Missika, J.-L., 114, 120
Margolis, M., 205, 222 Mitchell, G., 201
market research, 3, 4, 11-12, 229-31 Mitterrand, F., 100, 101, 107, 108,
case studies: Austria, 28, 29, 30, 109, I 11-12, 114, 115, 116
31; Britain, 46, 47; Denmark, Moati, S., 107
67; Finland, 85, 86, 87, 99; Modrow, H., 123, 136
France, 106; Germany, 128, Morrison, P., 48
132; Netherlands, 148, 150, Muller, W., 24, 25, 27, 41, 42
151, 152; New Zealand, 165, Milller-Enbergs, H., 124, 125, 143
166, 167, 168, 169, 172, 173, Miiller-Rommel, F., 125, 143
174, 175, 176, 177 Musiolek, B., 124, 143
French restrictions, 230
Ireland's proposal to ban polls, Nagel, J., 163, 182
234 Napolitan, J., 12, 13, 14, 18, 21
parties' response to polls, 231 National party's (New Zealand)
polls and democracy, 230-l disunity, 167-8, 171-2, 173
see also opinion poll trends New Caledonia, hostilities in, 116
Martel, M., 18, 21 Newby, D., 50
Mattingly, K., 194, 200, 203 newspapers, 10
Mauser, G., 5, 21, 205, 222 see also media; television
McAlpine, Lord, 48, 58 Newton, K., 206, 222
McCreary, J., 194 Niemoller, B., 162
McKinnon, D., 172, 178, 180, 181 Nijpels, E., 158
McLean, D., 61 Nimmo, D., 2, 21
McPhee, W.N., 221 Noelle-Neumann, E., 13, 14
Index 243