MATH 22

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

MODULE 3– DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
LECTURE 3
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
COMBINATION FORMULA:

𝑛 𝑛!
nCr = 𝑥
= 𝑥! 𝑛−𝑥 !
Example problems:
◦ A coin is flipped 100 times. What is the probability that heads
comes up at least 60 times?

◦ You buy a certain type of lottery ticket once a week for 4 weeks.
What is the probability you win a cash prize exactly twice?
◦ A trial with only two possible outcomes is used so frequently as a building
block of a random experiment that it is called a Bernoulli trial. It is usually
assumed that the trials that constitute the random experiment are independent.
This implies that the outcome from one trial has no effect on the outcome to be
obtained from any other trial. Furthermore, it is often reasonable to assume that
the probability of a success in each trial is constant.
◦ In the multiple choice experiment, if the test taker has no knowledge of the
material and just guesses at each question, we might assume that the
probability of a correct answer is ¼ for each question
Suppose:

◦ There are n independent trials.

◦ Each trial can result in one of two possible outcomes, labelled success and
failure.
➢P(Success) = p, this stays constant from trial to trial.

➢P(Failure) = 1-p.

➢X represents the number of successes in n trials.

Then X has a binomial distribution:
𝑛
P (X=x) = 𝑥
𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛−𝑥

For x = 1, 2 , 3 …, n

𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛−𝑥 is the probability of one specific ordering of successes and failures

𝑛
There are 𝑥
possible orderings
 A balanced six-sided die is rolled 3
times.
EXAMPLE OF What is the probability a 5 comes up
BINOMIAL exactly twice?
DISTRIBUTION

Success: rolling a 5

Failure: rolling anything but a 5

 Let x represent the number of fives in 3 rolls.

X has a binomial distribution with n = 3 , p = 1/6

Using the binomial formula:

EXAMPLE OF P (X=x) = 𝑛
𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛−𝑥
BINOMIAL 𝑥
DISTRIBUTION 3 12 1 3−2
P (X=2) = 2 6
(1 − )
6

= 0.0694
 According to Statistics Canada life tables,
the probability a randomly selected 90 year-
old Canadian male survives for at least
another year is approximately 0.82.
If 20 90 year-old Canadian males are
EXAMPLE OF randomly selected, what is the probability
BINOMIAL exactly 18 survives for another year?
DISTRIBUTION

Success: The man survives for at least another year

Failure: The man dies within the year

 Let X represent the number of men that survive for at least one year.

X has a binomial distribution (n =20 , p = 0.82)

Using the binomial formula:

𝑛
P (X=x) = 𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛−𝑥
EXAMPLE OF 𝑥

BINOMIAL P (X=18) = 20
18
0.8218 (1 − 0.82)20−18
DISTRIBUTION = 0.173
 What is the probability at least 18 survive a year?

EXAMPLE OF
BINOMIAL
DISTRIBUTION
 What is the probability at least 18 survive a year?

Using the binomial formula:

P (X ≥ x) = (X=18) + (X=19) + (X=20)

20
P (X ≥ 18) = 18
0.8218 (1 − 0.82)20−18 +

EXAMPLE OF 20
19
0.8219 (1 − 0.82)20−19 +
BINOMIAL 20
0.8220 (1 − 0.82)20−20
DISTRIBUTION 20

= 0.173 + 0.083 + 0.019

= 0.275
LECTURE 4
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
◦ Suppose we are counting the number of occurrences of an event in
a given unit of time, distance, area, or volume.

◦ For example:
◦ The number of car accidents in a day.
◦ The number of dandelions in a square meter plot of land.
Suppose:

◦ Events are occurring independently.

◦ The probability that an event occurs in a given length of time does
not change through time.

◦ Then X, the number of events in a fixed unit of time, has a Poisson distribution
Then Poisson probability mass function:
𝜆𝑥 𝑒 −𝜆
P (X=x) = ; e = 2.71828
𝑥!

For x = 1, 2 , 3 …

Mean of Poisson Distribution: 𝜇 = 𝜆

 Plutonium-239 is an isotope that is used in
nuclear reactors and weapons.
One nanogram of Plutonium-239 will have
an average of 2.3 radioactive decays per
second, and the number of decays will
EXAMPLE OF follow a Poisson distribution.
POISSON What is the probability that in a 2-second
DISTRIBUTION period there are exactly 3 radioactive decays?
 Let x represent the number of decays in a 2-second period.

Mean = 𝜇 = 𝜆 = 2.3 (2) = 4.6

Using the Poisson distribution formula:

4.63 𝑒 −4.6
P (X=3) = =0.163
EXAMPLE OF 3!
BINOMIAL
DISTRIBUTION
 What is the probability that there are no more than 3
radioactive decays?

EXAMPLE OF
BINOMIAL
DISTRIBUTION
 Using the Poisson Distribution formula:

P (X ≤ 3) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2)+ P(X=3)

4.60 𝑒 −4.6 4.61 𝑒 −4.6

P (X ≤ 18) = + +
0! 1!
4.62 𝑒 −4.6 4.63 𝑒 −4.6
EXAMPLE OF 2!
+
3!
BINOMIAL = 0.010 + 0.046 + 0.106 + 0.163
DISTRIBUTION
= 0.326
The Relationship Between the Binomial and Poisson
Distributions:

The Binomial distribution tends toward the Poisson distribution as

𝑛 → ∞ , 𝑝 → 0 and 𝑛𝑝 stays constant.

The Poisson Distribution with 𝜆 = 𝑛𝑝 closely approximates the

binomial distribution if 𝑛 is large and 𝑝 is small.
The Poisson distribution is typically used as an approximation to the
true underlying reality.
It can be difficult to determine whether a random variable has a
Poisson distribution.