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RESEARCH
24 October – 28 October
Currency/Yield/ Close 1 Day % Change
Commodities
Currency
USD INR 82.5025 -0.27%
Dollar Index 112.28 -0.2
EURO USD 0.9992 -0.58%
GBP USD 1.1583 -0.03%
JPY 146.49 0.01%
Swiss Franc 1.01 -0.1
Commodities ($)
Gold 1,640.00 -0.1
Brent 92.93 0.4
Copper 7,450.00 1.3
Silver 19.30 1.0
Yield (bps change)
India 10 7.45 0.029
US 4.03 -0.044
EURO 2.14 -0.017
Japan 0.24 0.001
BANK NIFTY
WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Markets zoomed higher on Monday evening on the back of the Muhurat Trading session. It was the sixth
consecutive session of daily gains for the Nifty. Nifty finally gained 154.5 points or 0.88% to close at
17,730.8. Broad market indices like the BSE Small Cap index gained more, thereby outperforming the
Sensex/Nifty. Market breadth was positive on the BSE/NSE.
Zooming into 15 minute chart, we see Nifty initially opened with an up gap and then traded in a range as
it held on to the opening gains.
In the process, the Nifty has broken out of a 4-day range and the 20 period MA has moved above the 50
period MA, indicating the short term uptrend looks set to continue.
On Daily chart, we observe that Nifty has broken out of a downward sloping trend line that has held down
the highs of 2021 and 2022. In the process, the index has also cleared the 20 and 50 day SMA and now
comfortably trades above them.
A momentum reading like the 14-day RSI too are in rising mode and at 60.81 are not overbought and
suggests scope for more upsides.
We therefore expect the Nifty to gradually move higher towards the previous intermediate highs of
18096 in the coming sessions. Crucial supports to watch for emergence of weakness are now at 17520-
17421.
Nifty rose in the closing minutes of trade on Oct 27 which was a monthly F&O expiry day. Nifty opened
higher, and later fell to make an intraday low at 1440 Hrs. A swift recovery post 1500 Hrs led the Nifty to
end in positive. At close, Nifty was up 0.46% or 80.6 points at 17736.9.
Among sectors, Realty. Oil & Gas, Metals and Power indices rose the most while IT index fell the most.
Broad markets indices mildly underperformed the Nifty even as the advance decline ratio was positive at
1.23:1.
Asian markets benefited from speculation among investors that major central banks are considering
slowing their aggressive interest hikes, given signs of an economic slowdown. European markets were
mixed ahead of the monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank due at 8.15 AM ET.
The central bank is widely expected to hike its benchmark rate by 75 basis points to combat rising
inflation. Survey results from the market research group GfK showed that German consumer confidence
is set to improve in November.
In the US, the Commerce Department's report due at 8:30 a.m. ET is expected to show GDP growth likely
rebounded at a 2.4% annualized rate last quarter after two straight quarterly declines. Nifty bounced up
after a one day decline. Nifty could now face resistance in the 17812-17839 band while 17637-17655
band could provide support.
Nifty rose for the second consecutive session on Oct 28 after a see-saw session. Nifty opened higher and
made an intraday high at 1015 Hrs. It later fell to make an intraday low at 1355 Hrs. A late recovery
followed. At close, Nifty was up 0.28% or 49.9 points at 17786.8.
Volumes on the NSE were lower than the recent average. Among sectors, Auto & Oil & Gas indices rose
the most while Metals and Bank indices fell the most. Broad market indices ended in the negative even as
the advance decline ratio fell to 0.65:1.
Asian stock markets were mostly lower on Friday as Chinese cities - Guangzhou and Wuhan - introduced
new COVID-19 curbs, while a broader rout in technology stocks spilled over into Asia after a slew of weak
earnings from U.S. heavyweights. European equities retreated as investors digested a flurry of corporate
earnings after disappointing results from US tech giants and rising fears of a global recession and
expectations of monetary policy tightening amid slowing economic growth dampened sentiments.
Nifty moved above the high-low range of the previous three sessions and closed at the highest in more
than 5 weeks. Sectoral rotation is keeping the Nifty afloat in volatile times. On a weekly basis, Nifty gained
1.20% building on the gains of the previous week. Nifty could now head towards 17838-17919 band while
17568-17637 band could offer support.