Workshop 6

Deterministic Optimization
Disclaimer: The United States Army Corps of Engineers has granted access to the information in this
model for instructional purposes only. Do not copy, forward, or release the information
without United States Army Corps of Engineers approval.

Objectives. You will learn how HEC-HMS can be used to optimize values for unit hydrograph
and loss rate variables, given measured discharge and precipitation data. Experience will be
gained in analyzing results of optimization, and in adopting values for unit hydrograph
parameters based on results of optimization for three events.

Problem. In this workshop you will:

 Set up and compute an optimization trial.
 Review results of the trial and make additional trials as necessary.
 Review results of previously computed optimizations for two other storm events.
 Adopt a set of unit hydrograph parameters for the Mahoning Cr Basin.

Spend approximately 10-15 minutes to complete the initial simulations and then
approximately 10 minutes per optimization event to accomplish all tasks in this workshop
within the time allotted.

Tasks.
1. Open the project Optimization Workshop, which is contained in the
“..\Workshop_6\” directory.

2. Open the Time-Series Data Manager. Change the data type to Discharge
Gages and press the New… button to create a new gage.

3. Change the default name to PNXP. Add a description of “Measured discharge

at Punxsutawney”. Press the Create button to create the gage.

4. Select the new gage by clicking on it in the Watershed Explorer; the component
editor will open.

5. Change the data source to Single Record HEC-DSS. Select the DSS filename
to be …\Optimization_Workshop\data\observe.dss. Use the pathname select
button to choose the right path in the DSS file. The correct pathname is
/ALLEGHENY/PNXP/FLOW/01APR1994 - 01MAY1996/1HOUR/OBS/.

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6. Create time windows that match the three control specifications. Select the
Precipitation Gage in the Time-Series Data Manager and press the Add
Window button. Select each of the control specifications and then press the
Add button to add a new time window to the gage.

The above steps associated the gaged flow data with the project. The gage can now be
used throughout the project by referring to it by its name, PNXP. The actual pathname
month selected is not important; the program automatically finds data for other
pathname parts.

7. Open the Punxsutawney basin model by clicking on it in the Watershed

Explorer. Click on the subbasin Mahoning Cr in the Watershed Explorer or in
the basin map to make it the selected element; its component editor will
automatically load.
8. Click on the "Options" tab in the component editor. Select the PNXP gage for the
Observed Flow.

9. Create three new simulation runs and compute them to make sure they function
correctly. All three will have the same basin model, Punxsutawney, and the
same meteorologic model, Specified Gage Wt. Each run will use a different
control specifications: Apr 94, May 95, and May 96 (use descriptive names for
the simulation runs, Run Apr 94, Run May 95, and Run May 96).

10. Create the first optimization trial using the wizard on the Compute menu. The
first trial will be based on the simulation run that uses the Apr 94 control
specifications. Choose a name for the trial (Opt Apr 94), and then select the
Punxsutawney basin model, subbasin with observed flow (Mahoning Cr), and
Specified Gage Wt meteorologic model.

11. Select the new optimization trial in the Watershed Explorer (go to the
Optimization Trials folder on the Compute tab) and move to the component
editor. Verify that the correct Basin Model and Meteorologic Model are selected.
Enter a start and end date that match the control specifications for the Apr 94
simulation and select a Time Interval of 1-hour. On the Search tab, select the
Simplex method, set a tolerance of 0.01, and a maximum number of iterations of
50. The window should appear as it does in Figure 1 below.

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 Figure 1: Optimization Trial Setup

12. Switch to the Objective tab. Verify that the objective function will be evaluated at
the Mahoning Cr subbasin element. Select Minimization as the goal, and set
the statistic to Peak-Weighted RMSE. Set the percent of allowed missing flow at
0.0. Make sure the objective function will be evaluated from the beginning to the
end of the control specifications as seen in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Optimization Trial Objective

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13. Right-click on the optimization trial node in the Watershed Explorer and select
the Add Parameter command. A new parameter node will be added under the
objective function node. Add three more parameters the same way so there are
a total of four parameters.

14. Click on the first parameter node and then move to the component editor. First
select the Mahoning Cr subbasin element. Select the Clark Storage
Coefficient for the parameter.

15. Click on the other parameter nodes and select the Clark Time of
Concentration, Constant Loss Rate, and Initial Loss parameters.

16. Use the Compute menu to select and compute the optimization trial. A Compute
screen will open to show progress. When the compute is completed, close it.

17. Switch to the "Results" tab of the Watershed Explorer and examine the various
results for the optimization trial. Use the Optimized Parameters table to fill in the
initial value and optimized value in Table 1 below.

Table 1. Initial and optimized values for the first trial.

PARAMETER INITIAL VALUE OPTIMIZED VALUE

Time of Concentration
Clark Storage Coefficient
Initial Loss
Constant Loss Rate

Question 1
What is the different in peak flow between the computed and observed
hydrographs? What is the time difference in peak flow?

Question 2
What parts of the hydrograph match well? Which parts do not match?

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 Question 3
Based on examining the evolution of the objective function value, do you believe
it found the best mix of parameter values?

18. Make at least three additional trials using the same simulation run. Adjust
parameter initial values, constraints, the objective function time window, the
objective goal and statistic, tolerance, or maximum number of iterations to see
their effect on the optimization. Use Table 2 below to document each of your
trials.

Table 2. Trial results for the April 1994 event.

TRIAL
PARAMETER 1 2 3 4 5
Objective
Goal/Statistic

Time of
Concentration
Clark Storage
Coefficient
Initial Loss
Constant Loss
Rate
Objective
Function
Value
% Difference
Volume
% Difference
Peak Flow

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19. Create optimization trials for two additional events occurring in May 1995 and
May 1996. Optimize for the same four parameters: Clark Time of Concentration,
Clark Storage Coefficient, Constant Loss Rate, and Initial Loss. Add a fifth
parameter to both trials and select the Recession – Initial Discharge parameter.
Set this parameter to 318 CFS for the May 1995 trial and to 283 CFS for the May
1996 trial. Make sure to lock this parameter for both trials. Experiment with
convergence criteria and different objective functions. When you have found
your best optimization results for each of the trials, enter your parameter values
in the table. The observed peak flow is shown for each event. Based on your
results and engineering judgment, select Adopted Values for the time of
concentration and storage coefficient.

Table 3. Best optimization results for each event and adopted values.

Apr 1994 May 1995 May 1996 ADOPTED

PARAMETER
(6,368 cfs) (1,786 cfs) (2,942 cfs) VALUE

Time of Concentration
(hr)
Clark Storage
Coefficient (hr)
Initial Loss
n/a
(in)
Constant Loss Rate
n/a
(in/hr)

Question 4
7. If you use the adopted parameter values, do they produce acceptable results for
the April 1994 event? How do they compare with the parameters you calculated
in the previous workshop problem? What effect do the adopted parameters have
on the April 1994 simulated hydrograph compared to the hydrograph produced
by your best optimized parameters?