Climate variability

Introduction:
Climate is the long-term pattern of weather in a particular area. Weather can change from
hour-to-hour, day-to-day, month-to-month or even year-to-year. A region's weather patterns,
usually tracked for at least 30 years, are considered its climate.

Climate change:
Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. These shifts
may be natural, such as through variations in the solar cycle. But since the 1800s, human
activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to burning fossil fuels like
coal, oil and gas.

Impact of climate change on humans:

Human beings are not spared by these upheavals. Climate change is affecting the global
economy. It is already shaking up social, health and geopolitical balances in many parts of the
world. The scarcity of resources like food and energy gives rise to new conflicts.
Rising sea levels and floods are causing population migration. Small island states are in the front
line. The estimated number of climate refugees by 2050 is 250 million people. (Stated in the
report of solaripulse).

Impact of climate change on biodiversity:

The increase of temperatures and the climate upheavals disturb the ecosystems, modify the
conditions and cycles of plant reproduction. The scarcity of resources and climate change are
changing life habits and migratory cycles of animals. We are already witnessing the
disappearance of many species - including endemic species - or, conversely, the intrusion of
invasive species that threaten crops and other animals.

Impact of climate change on livestock:

The most significant direct impact of climate change on livestock production comes from the
heat stress. Heat stress results in a significant financial burden to livestock producers through
decrease in milk component and milk production, meat production, reproductive efficiency and
animal health.
Most of the production losses are incurred via indirect impacts of climate change largely
through reductions or non-availability of feed and water resources. Climate change has the
potential to impact the quantity and reliability of forage production, quality of forage, water
demand for cultivation of forage crops, as well as large-scale rangeland vegetation patterns. In
the coming decades, crops and forage plants will continue to be subjected to warmer
temperatures, elevated carbon dioxide, as well as wildly fluctuating water availability due to
changing precipitation patterns. Climate change can adversely affect productivity, species
composition, and quality, with potential impacts not only on forage production but also on
other ecological roles of grasslands. Due to the wide fluctuations in distribution of rainfall in
growing season in several regions of the world, the forage production will be greatly impacted.
With the likely emerging scenarios that are already evident from impact of the climate change
effects, the livestock production systems are likely to face more of negative than the positive
impact. Also, climate change influences the water demand, availability and quality. Changes in
temperature and weather may affect the quality, quantity and distribution of rainfall,
snowmelt, river flow and groundwater. Climate change can result in a higher intensity
precipitation that leads to greater peak run-offs and less groundwater recharge.

Impact of climate change on agriculture:

Agriculture is a major source of GHGs which contribute to the greenhouse effect and climate
change. However, the changing climate is having far reaching impacts on agricultural
production, which are likely to challenge food security in the future. Climate change is likely to
exert adverse impacts on productive resources and ultimately on agricultural productivity of the
country. The major climatic stresses that will exert pressure on agriculture are: increasing
temperatures in arable areas; changes in rainfall patterns. Increased variability of Monsoon;
changes in availability of irrigation water; severe water-stressed conditions in Arid and Semi-
arid areas; extreme events, such as floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves, cyclones, etc.
Communities most vulnerable to climate change in Pakistan are small land holders that form
more than 80% of the total farming community. The farmers in arid and hyper-arid regions and
those living in the mountainous and coastal areas are more exposed to the climate change and
extreme events. The impacts of climate change on agriculture include; Shortening of Growing
Season Length (GSL), heat stress at critical reproductive stages and increased water
requirements of crops. These factors cause a decrease in yield in arid and semiarid regions by
about 6 -18%.
This year as the temperature become high before then previous years which effect the wheat
crop. As the crop ripens early and grain is little smaller in size which lowers the yield.
Overall Impact:
For any particular crop, the effect of increased temperature will depend on the crop's optimal
temperature for growth and reproduction. In some areas, warming may benefit the types of
crops that are typically planted there, or allow farmers to shift to crops that are currently grown
in warmer areas. Conversely, if the higher temperature exceeds a crop's optimum temperature,
yields will decline. Higher CO2 levels can affect crop yields. Some laboratory experiments
suggest that elevated CO2 levels can increase plant growth. However, other factors, such as
changing temperatures, ozone, and water and nutrient constraints, may counteract these
potential increases in yield. For example, if temperature exceeds a crop's optimal level, if
sufficient water and nutrients are not available, yield increases may be reduced or reversed.
Elevated CO2 has been associated with reduced protein and nitrogen content in alfalfa and
soybean plants, resulting in a loss of quality. Reduced grain and forage quality can reduce the
ability of pasture and rangeland to support grazing livestock.
Though rising CO2 can stimulate plant growth, it also reduces the nutritional value of most food
crops. Rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide reduce the concentrations of protein and
essential minerals in most plant species, including wheat, soybeans, and rice. This direct effect
of rising CO2 on the nutritional value of crops represents a potential threat to human health.
Human health is also threatened by increased pesticide use due to increased pest pressures
and reductions in the efficacy of pesticides.
Heat waves, which are projected to increase under climate change, could directly threaten
livestock. Exposure to high temperature events caused over $1 billion in heat-related losses to
agricultural producers. Heat stress affects animals both directly and indirectly. Over time, heat
stress can increase vulnerability to disease, reduce fertility, and reduce milk production.
Drought may threaten pasture and feed supplies. Drought reduces the amount of quality forage
available to grazing livestock. Some areas could experience longer, more intense droughts,
resulting from higher summer temperatures and reduced precipitation. For animals that rely on
grain, changes in crop production due to drought could also become a problem.