A business manager who needs to make many phone calls has estimated that when she calls

a client, the probability that she will reach the client right away is 60%. If she does not
reach the client on the first call, the probability that she will reach the client with a
subsequent call in the next hour is 20%. (p.233).
a. Find the probability that the manager reaches her client in two or fewer calls.
b. Find the probability that the manager reaches her client on the second call but not on
the first call.
c. Find the probability that the manager is unsuccessful on two consecutive calls.

Ans:
a) let, A= respond right away 

B= responding through subsequent call 

P(A) = 0.60 

P(B) = 0.40 

P(A) = 0.20 

P(B) = 0.80

A and B are independent events.

P(Reaching client in two or fewer calls)=0.60 + 0.40(0.2) = 0.68 = 68 %

b) We know that:

• p=first call-60%=0.60

• q=second call if first not given-20%=0.20

Probability not first but second:

P=(1-p)q=(1-0.6)0.2-0.08
c) The probability that the manager is unsuccessful on two consecutive calls shall be:
P(Unsuccessful on the first call) * P(Unsuccessful on the next call) 

= 0.6 0.2 

= 0.12 

or 12%