12/29/22, 12:37 AM A world transformed | ORF

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COMMENTARIES DEC 27 2022

A world transformed
HARSH V. PANT

The Ukraine war will shape global politics for years to come

EUROPE INDO-PACIFIC MILITARY RUSSIA SECURITY UKRAINE

VLADIMIR PUTIN

When the year began, the debate on Ukraine had already started. Vladimir Putin was
amassing his troops around Ukraine. It was widely believed that this was part of a
diplomatic manoeuvre to push for a renegotiated settlement with Europe. The West
was trying to ensure that war doesn’t return to Europe. The world was nervous but
few believed that a full-fledged war was in the offing.

And, yet, it happened, forever changing the geopolitics of Europe and the world. Since
that fateful day on February 24, when the Russian invasion began, it has been
estimated that more than 100,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been
killed or injured, along with some 40,000 civilian deaths. Over 7.8 million Ukrainians
have been made refugees.

During his recent visit to the United States of America, Volodymyr Zelensky defiantly
told members of the US Congress that his nation will never surrender. “Just like the
brave American soldiers who held their lines and fought back Hitler’s forces during the
Christmas of 1944, brave Ukrainian soldiers are doing the same to Putin’s forces this
Christmas,” he said. In his attempt to convince the US to keep supporting the Ukrainian

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war effort, Zelensky pitched it as an investment in security for the future even as he
predicted a “turning point” in the conflict next year.

Russia will be hoping that a harsh winter will not only dwindle public support
for the war in Ukraine but also test the European resolve to stand by Kyiv.
But Zelensky also knows that the next few months are critical. Even though Joe Biden pledged a new
$2 billion aid package with an additional $45 billion in the pipeline, there is growing disquiet among
a section of Republicans about the continuing costs of the American war effort. Significantly, there is
war fatigue in the US, with a third of Americans no longer backing continued US aid to Ukraine and
around half wanting Ukraine to settle for peace.
Russia will be hoping that a harsh winter will not only dwindle public support for the
war in Ukraine but also test the European resolve to stand by Kyiv. Moscow has
accused the US of fighting a proxy war in Ukraine and Washington’s delivery of Patriot
missiles is likely to aggravate this sense further.

The war in Ukraine may or may not end soon, but it has significantly transformed the
global landscape. Structurally, it has accelerated the trend towards global polarisation.
The West’s antagonism vis-à-vis  Russia is now firmly embedded in the wider US-China
contestation as the Russia-China axis has been cemented further. As Europe
strengthens its security outlook and military capabilities, it is being forced to take a
relook at its engagement with China. While Putin may have shaken the foundations of
the European architecture created after the Second World War, there is now a
realisation that the long-term threat is more likely to come from the Indo Pacific where
Xi Jinping is waiting to strike at an opportune time. This also means that new
institutions and frameworks are needed to respond to the needs of these volatile
times. The multilateral order is now grasping for breath and the structural polarisation
will ensure that it will be seen as a vestige of the old order. The move towards the new
model of plurilateral and minilaterals is a response to these times. Small groups of like-
minded nations are going to be more effective in finding solutions to global and
regional problems.

The multilateral order is now grasping for breath and the structural
polarisation will ensure that it will be seen as a vestige of the old order.

The Ukraine war has also raised questions about the way in which the militaries will
fight the wars of the future. The conflict has bared the role of new technologies in
shaping the battlefield as well as the diminishing effectiveness of non-military coercive
measures. This has been the first major cyber conflict between two contestants,
with Ukraine dominating the battle in digital information. Russia’s failure to adapt to
decentralised command and control practices has also been a revelation.

The Ukraine war will shape global politics for years to come. For India too, it has raised
profound questions pertaining to its foreign and security policy choices as well as the
way it needs to reconfigure its military to fight the wars of the 21st century.

This commentary originally appeared in The Telegraph.

The views expressed above belong to the author(s).

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