MarketLineIC UkraineConflictExecutiveBriefingApril82022 300622

Ukraine Conflict
Executive Briefing (Fourth Edition)

Understand the impact of the Ukraine crisis on the world
economy and key sectors
April 8, 2022
Copyright @ GlobalData PLC. All rights reserved.

Reproduction of part or all of this contents without permission is prohibited.
Contents
▪ Executive Summary
▪ Conflict scenario analysis
▪ Country, Sector, and FX Indices
▪ Economic Sanctions
▪ Impact on the Global Economy
▪ Impact on Commodity Markets
▪ Impact by Sector:
Aerospace, Defense & Security Mining
Agribusiness Oil & Gas
Apparel Packaging
Automotive Pharma
Banking & Payments Power
Construction Retail
Consumer Sports
Foodservice Technology & Telecoms
Healthcare Travel & Tourism
Insurance Wealth Management
Medical Devices
▪ Social Media Influencer Views

▪ Top Themes for 2022
▪ Our Thematic Research Methodology
2
1. Executive Summary
A new era for geopolitical tensions
April 8, 2022
▪ The latest information from the United Nations’ Refugee Agency (UNHCR) indicates that at least 4.2 million people have fled Ukraine as of April 3, with a further 6.5
million displaced internally. Poland has received the greatest number of refugees with around 2.5 million to date.
▪ Peace talks on March 29 prompted some optimism around a possible route to an end to the conflict, with Russia confirming it plans to withdraw from the Kyiv
region, although its stated ambition was still to “protect and liberate” the Donbas (in the southeast). However, the withdrawal from the Kyiv region has led to the
shocking revelation of suspected Russian atrocities in previously occupied locations.
▪ A growing number of global leaders are accusing Russian forces of committing war crimes, with US President Joe Biden having called for a war crimes trial against
Russian President Vladimir Putin. This development will lead to further intensification of Western sanctions, with the G7, US, and EU announcing new sanctions in
in response to these reported war crimes. Such a backdrop, as well as outrage on the Ukrainian side, will likely impair negotiations. An early end to the global
economic shock from this war and sanctions crisis now appears unrealistic.
▪ The invasion of Ukraine has triggered a surge in energy and commodity prices, driving downgrades in the growth outlook for many major economies. In addition,
China continues to impose widespread lockdowns as it pursues its ‘zero COVID’ strategy, with over 25 million residents in Shanghai recently placed under lockdown.
Ongoing lockdowns risk further supply chain disruptions, but also pose additional risks to economic growth in China and globally.
▪ The conflict in the Black Sea region following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed prices for grain and oilseeds to new twenty-first-century highs. The crisis
has fueled concerns about food security risks, as grains and oilseeds are key staples for billions of people and livestock across the world. While countries and
industries search for alternatives, additional exports from other places will only partially offset lower Black Sea shipments this year as stocks were tight even
before the crisis. The impact of the invasion on natural gas prices and fertilizer supply chains is a substantial threat to crop yields for the year ahead, as many
farmers will cut back on fertilizer applications.
▪ More generally, we are likely heading into a period where geopolitics becomes a normal part of boardroom discussions. The world is at risk of fragmenting into
separate economic security zones with their own technology stacks and standards, with existing trends around onshoring and reshoring set to accelerate.
Business and investment strategies will have to consider an increasingly multi-polar world.
This executive briefing analyzes the impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the global economy and on key industry sectors. We also analyze the impact of the conflict
on leading companies in every major sector. This report includes expert opinions from our industry analysts, macroeconomic analysts, thematic analysts, and data
4
scientists from all around the world.
Over 4.2 million refugees have fled Ukraine since February 24
Total refugee influx from Ukraine in neighboring countries since the start of the conflict (as of April 3)
Source: United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNHCR)
*The total influx is higher than the total number of refugees fleeing Ukraine since it also takes into account people crossing the border between Romania and Moldova. 5
**Ukrainian refugee data as of March 29
Sector impact summaries
▪ Tensions between Ukraine and Russia have been rising since the 2014 invasion of Crimea. Characterized until now by lower-intensity conflict against Russian
separatists in the East, along with ongoing cyberattacks, this recent escalation to high-intensity conflict marks a watershed moment for the continent.
Europe is now witnessing the first major conventional war in the region since WW2.
▪ Under-investment in defense and freeriding on the back of US security guarantees have been perennial complaints levelled at Europe for years, with few
nations in the region achieving the NATO agreed target of 2% of GDP. With Germany now announcing an increase in spend exceeding this level, others will
follow. Modernization initiatives to upgrade and replace conventional warfighting capabilities across the continent will proceed at pace.
Aerospace, Defense & Security
▪ The decision of the European Union to fund and organize military aid to Ukraine represents a step change from historical positioning as primarily a medium-
Read more
to-long-term soft power actor. Although attempts to progress defense co-operation across Europe have always been stymied due to competing national
priorities, this invasion on the doorstep of the union fundamentally changes prospects. With budgets under pressure due to the fiscal strain of the pandemic,
it is likely more efficient collaborative expenditure among European allies will follow as nations seek to make the best use of existing budgets.
▪ Sanctions levelled at Russia impact global aerospace & defense supply chains, as well as the prospect of Russian arms sales into rapidly growing international
markets such as the Middle East. The substantial national aerospace industry of Ukraine will be hit hard, as will prospects for a quick recovery for the
industry more broadly across Europe following the pandemic.
▪ The conflict in the Black Sea region following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed prices for grain and oilseeds to new twenty-first-century highs. The
crisis has fueled concerns about food security risks, especially in import-dependent countries in the Middle East and Africa.
▪ The immediate impact has centered on the suspension of commercial Black Sea port loadings in Ukraine. Although there have been efforts to increase
exports via railway routes through the country's western borders, overall volumes are likely to be limited. Looking ahead, the impact on crop output will be
extended in Ukraine because of the potential damage to port facilities, railroads, and storage silos, which could dampen export potential even with a
Agribusiness
ceasefire. For Russia, most Black Sea terminals are operational, but with some ongoing restrictions in the Azov Sea.
Read more
▪ Additional exports from other origins will only partially offset lower Black Sea shipments this year, as stocks were tight even before the crisis, and we will
have to wait until the late northern summer before any supplies from plantings elsewhere are harvested.
▪ Even if we assume a ceasefire at some point, there are significant downside risks not only to Ukraine's 2022/23 grain and oilseed crops (because of limited
fuel, farm inputs, and labor, as well as a lack of access to fields), but also to alternative supplies as a lack of fertilizer will reduce yields for spring and, most
likely, next year’s winter crops as well.
▪ The Russia-Ukraine conflict is expected to wipe $18.8 billion off the Russian apparel market in 2022, and spending will remain below the pre-conflict forecast
until 2025. Inflation and lack of supply will be major factors. Discretionary spending will take a hit as the price of food and essentials increases. Russia was
Apparel the tenth largest apparel market in 2021, making $47.8 billion.
Read more ▪ Rising commodity prices as a result of the Ukraine conflict will strain the apparel industry throughout Europe as the impact has wider consequences on the
Source: GlobalData supply chain, the price of textiles, and is contributing to further inflationary pressure on consumers’ pockets, which will result in spending being diverted 6
away from apparel purchases to more essential items across Europe.
▪ Russia remains significant as a regional automotive market, though its global status is not genuinely material. The crisis can, therefore, be
weathered by automotive sector participants who are increasingly suspending local Russian operations. But collapses in Russian, and especially
Automotive Ukrainian, markets and automotive output now appear inevitable. The risk of further cuts is high.
Read more ▪ The current situation of major global undersupply in light vehicles, stemming from the still-severe semiconductor shortage, means that, even if
underlying demand distant from crisis-hit Ukraine and Russia is reduced by knock-on macroeconomic effects, the risk to the near-term outlook
for global light vehicle sales and production, for example from further inflationary increases, may be more limited.
▪ Unlike other industries, banking and payments are being used as a tool to arrest Russia's military invasion of Ukraine predominantly through the
exclusion of major payment systems such as SWIFT, cutting Russia off from international trade. Attempts to move to alternative payments such
as crypto have been disrupted (in any case, crypto is outside of Russian governmental control, making the Kremlin unlikely to rely on it).
Banking & Payments ▪ Consumer confidence in Russia's financial system has been damaged as the purchasing power of customer deposits has declined rapidly,
Read more leading to an increased demand for cash, particularly foreign currencies. In addition, European subsidiaries of Russian banks are being forced
into insolvency as a direct result of sanctions. The two largest banks in Russia, VTB and Sberbank, have so far not been included in sanctions.
Western-based digital challenger banks and fintechs have been at the forefront of facilitating customers who want to support Ukrainian citizens
via money transfers and supporting charity payments.
▪ Ukraine’s construction industry had been expanding rapidly but the outlook is now much bleaker, with major projects currently underway likely
to be stalled and new investment plans put on hold, while the government’s attention and resources are redirected towards military
Construction efforts. There is also a risk that European markets bordering Russia will suffer disruption if investor confidence in the wider region takes a hit.
Read more ▪ There will also be an indirect impact on construction further afield, as Russia’s military intervention exacerbates upward pressure on oil and
energy prices, feeding into even higher costs for production and transportation of key construction materials. Russia and Ukraine are also major
producers and exporters of steel (particularly to the EU).
Consumer Goods ▪ The Russo-Ukrainian war is anticipated to accelerate price increases across the supply chain and disrupt trade flows, further squeezing
disposable incomes and dampening recovery from the pandemic. Several FMCG firms have already halted local operations in Ukraine and in
Read more Russia, while consumer boycotts of Russian brands across the globe continue.
Source: GlobalData 7
▪ Accounting jointly for roughly a third of the world’s wheat and being the top two exporters of sunflower oil, Ukraine and Russia supply
disruptions will cause global price hikes particularly for the bakery channel and an array of issues for foodservice businesses at the food
Foodservice
preparation stage.
Read more
▪ Inflationary pressure will also be worsened by rising energy costs, so businesses face uncertainty over how long they can absorb additional
costs or maintain stable menu prices for consumers.
Healthcare ▪ Russian healthcare is likely to feel the indirect effects of the war quickly.
Read more ▪ Hospitals will quickly feel daily shortages of imported medical materials as sanctions and worsening economic conditions quickly bite.
▪ Concerns that major claims will arise from the Ukraine-Russia war continue to rise. In particular, the number of marine and aviation insurance
claims are bound to increase, resulting in big losses for the industry. Aircraft leasing firm, AerCap, filed a USD3.5 billion insurance claim, while
Bangladesh Shipping Corporation had filed a claim for USD22.4 million.
▪ The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has urged the industry to stop doing business with the nuclear insurance pools and insurance companies
Insurance
based in Russia and Belarus.
Read more
▪ The withdrawal of international (re)insurance capacity means that there will be greater reliance on the state-owned Russian Reinsurance
company.
▪ Political risk, credit risk, aviation, marine, cyber and energy insurance are the lines most vulnerable to premium rates increases, while coverage
may also be reduced.
▪ Most medical device companies continue to conduct business in Russia, for humanitarian purposes.
Medical Devices ▪ Companies with higher Russian revenue share are less likely to issue statements concerning changes in operations.
Read more ▪ The Russian government has pledged more financial support to hospitals facing increased costs of healthcare, as a result of the increase in
prices of imported medical equipment and medicines.
▪ Concerns over the supply of key commodities such as nickel, palladium, and aluminum have led to sharp price increases, with nickel prices on
the LME briefly topping $100,000/t on March 8 before trading was suspended. Russia accounts for approximately 8% of global nickel, though 17%
of the high-grade nickel used in EV batteries. It is also a major producer of palladium, accounting for an estimated 43% of production in 2021.
Mining
▪ While Nornickel has stated operations are continuing and Polymetal reported on March 9 that all its operations in Russia and Kazakhstan continue
Read more
undisrupted, Canadian miner Kinross first announced that it was suspending all activities in Russia, including its Udinsk development project in
Khabarovsk Krai, as well as operations at its Kupol gold mine, and has more recently agreed to sell its Russian mine to Highland Gold Mining
for $680 million in cash.
▪ The initial impact of the war has seen global oil and gas prices spike. As Russia is among the world’s leading exporters of hydrocarbons, any
disruption to its supplies would put additional inflationary pressures on global economies, particularly on countries with high import dependency.
Oil & Gas ▪ Major oil and gas players—including BP, Shell, Equinor, and ExxonMobil—have announced divestments of their interests in Russian assets.
Read more Meanwhile sanctions will limit delivery of capital, technology, and equipment to the Russian oil and gas sector.
▪ With Russian pipelines the main source of Europe’s gas imports, the conflict presents a potentially major supply risk. However, gas flows to Europe
from Russia have increased since the invasion of Ukraine and SWIFT sanctions to date still allow energy transactions.
▪ The widespread closures of packaging and production facilities in Ukraine and Russia—coupled with increasingly stringent sanctions on Russian
trade and the ongoing exodus of over 300 major western companies—are having short-term impacts on energy, the price of raw materials, and
supply chain disruptions. In the longer term, these factors will negatively impact GDP, consumption, and packaging demand in both countries. The
Packaging prolonged invasion has prompted more packaging firms, perhaps initially reluctant to leave Russia, to scale down operations.
Read more ▪ Ball Corporation has announced it will reduce operations immediately at its three manufacturing plants in Russia, while contemplating the option
of selling its Russian business. Smurfit Kappa Group also announced it would exit the Russian market. The Group had already suspended support
for its Russian operations, and claims its Russian business represents less than 1% of forecasted sales.
▪ The kraft-paper, pulp, and wooden crates sectors are expected to be impacted most in the short term.
▪ There are currently 11 clinical trials that have specifically mentioned disruption or possible disruption due to the conflict in Ukraine.
▪ Healthcare spending and pharma sales in Ukraine will likely see a sharp decline in the upcoming month. As normal supply chains are currently
disrupted in the country, many pharma companies are providing vaccines, antibiotics, pain medicine, and other essential drugs to Ukraine and
Pharma neighboring countries. As of March 22, 2022, 25 pharma companies have donated about $66 million to non-governmental organizations (NGOs).
Read more ▪ Impact on healthcare spending and pharma sales in Russia will likely be more muted compared to Ukraine but drug shortages are already evident
as Russians attempt to stockpile medicines. In addition, several pharmaceutical manufacturers have stopped supplying non-essential medicines to
Russia. An increasing number of big pharma companies are also pausing investments and scaling back operations in Russia while companies
across the broader life sciences industry are pledging to stop all business with Russian companies.
▪ The power sector, especially in Europe is expected to be impacted due to the gas availability and price issues. Utilities will have to look for
alternate sources of gas or shift to other sources of generation.
▪ The recent ban on Russian oil and gas supplies will have a varied impact on both the buying and selling nations. Russia is an important source of
energy supply for the US and European countries.
▪ Pressure on the Western Bloc to impose more sanctions on Russian energy imports due to civilian killings in Ukraine by Russian Army. Fuel
Power
prices (such as for oil) have increased due to talks of a possible boycott of Russian oil.
Read more
▪ Energy companies continue to exit or halt operations in Russia due to increasing pressure to cut ties amid civilian killings in Ukraine.
▪ The electric vehicle and energy storage market will be impacted due to shortage of nickel and increase in commodity prices.
▪ The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently published “A 10-Point Plan to Reduce the European Union’s Reliance on Russian Natural Gas”,
providing short-term measures and claiming that the EU could cut Russian gas imports by more than 33%. It also advocates for gas-to-coal
switching that could account for majority of the potential reduction in gas demand.
▪ Russian consumers will be hit hard by inflation of 20% in 2022 and a weakening of GDP means that the spending power of Russians will be
greatly reduced. Volumes will fall and supply will be interrupted. Shelves are already empty, and the basics are being rationed.
▪ Higher prices will compensate for lower volumes in food with the market increasing by 9% in ruble terms in 2022. However, in USD terms, the
Retail food market will drop by 27%. Our forecasts for the size of the market in 2025 have dropped in USD terms by 37%. In non-food, the market will
increase in ruble terms by 2%, but fall 32% in USD, with our forecasts for the size of the non-food market in 2025 dropping in USD terms by
Read more 40%.
▪ The weakness of the ruble will negatively impact Western retailers still trading in Russia, even apart from the problems of getting stock in and
out, as well as payment issues. Russian retailers will of course benefit from the removal of Western rivals but will face similar operational
difficulties and will be negatively impacted by the economic issues affecting their customers.
▪ The International Olympic Committee, FIFA, F1, IPC, and UEFA have moved to isolate Russia by banning all Russian teams from participating in
sporting events, in addition to cancelling planned events in the country. UEFA have moved the Champions League Final from St Petersburg to
Paris, while Formula One has cancelled the Russia Grand Prix and the ATP has moved the St Petersburg Open. Only one event is currently still
scheduled to take place in Russia, the FINA World Swimming Championships.
Sports
▪ There are 87 media rights deals that are in the process of being terminated in the Russian market. Sponsorship deals from Russian brands worth
Read more a total of over $493 million are now under threat, with the likes of the UEFA, Manchester United FC, Chelsea FC, National Hockey League (NHL),
Real Madrid CF, Ferrari, and Haas F1 all impacted.
Source: GlobalData ▪ Sanctions against Russian Oligarch Roman Abramovich imposed by the UK government have meant the proposed sale of Chelsea FC is now 10
suspended. The clubs front-of-shirt sponsor, telecoms brand 3, have terminated their sponsorship deal, worth $52.5 million.
▪ Technology and telecom markets in Russia and Ukraine will contract significantly, due to war-related disruptions in Ukraine, sanctions-related
trade restrictions, interest rate hikes, currency devaluation, and financial sanctions in Russia.
▪ Both countries are regionally significant TMT markets, but global technology vendors will not feel a major impact to their top line revenues.
Demand globally is higher than supply, and shipments for Russia or Ukraine will be easily rerouted elsewhere.
Technology & Telecom ▪ Russia and Ukraine are not significant technology exporters but do command significant shares of supply for neon gas (used in silicon
Read more lithography) and palladium (used in electronics). Some disruptions to supply chain are possible, and prices of neon and palladium have risen
significantly already.
▪ Both countries are home to a significant share of the global software developer workforce, which will be mostly unavailable to global clients
due to warfare in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. The impact on software development supply chains will be felt, but its magnitude is
hard to predict.
▪ According to GlobalData, Russia and Ukraine accounted for 2.2% of global outbound tourist expenditure in 2021. Although this percentage
shows that the impact of the crisis will not be on the same level as the pandemic, it will still impact the top lines of many travel and tourism
companies that are involved in tourism flows from these nations—and in global destinations that have experienced growing numbers of Russian
and Ukrainian visitors in recent years.
Travel & Tourism ▪ Inbound tourism to Ukraine was expected to reach 83.1% of pre-pandemic (2019) levels in 2022, and domestic tourism was projected to
Read more surpass pre-pandemic levels this year. This positive outlook has now been destroyed by the crisis, with a full recovery of Ukraine's industry
potentially years away, when also factoring in the ongoing pandemic.
▪ Many countries have imposed sanctions against Russia in response to the crisis. Russia has retaliated by advising its citizens against traveling to
these destinations. Some destinations in the Middle East and Asia remain viable options but many Russians may not be able to afford to
undertake such trips, given the rapid increase in air fares in the country, along with the ruble's collapse.
▪ Global wealth managers will be negatively impacted by declining financial markets and the knock effects for client AUM. Significant regulatory
and reputational risk will have banks in offshore centers continually reviewing clients in the light of the evolving sanctions environment.
Wealth Management ▪ Asset managers with exposure to Ukrainian, Russian or Belarusian investments will be forced to mark down values or even wind-up affected
Read more funds. Commodities and crypto-currency assets will remain volatile for quite some time, introducing higher risk to client portfolios.
▪ Recent industry moves to embrace ESG will need adapt to conditions of open war and develop standards on how to ethically invest or
divest from securities or companies directly impacted by combat or sanctions.
Multinational companies with exposure to Ukraine
Just over 300 MNCs have at least one subsidiary in Ukraine, and about one-quarter (27%) of them are US-headquartered. More than half (57%) are based in western Europe.
Company HQ Ukraine
Proportion of MNC subsidiaries in Ukraine by
subsidiaries
Bunge US 10
industry (%)
Scatec Norway 10
8%
Raiffeisen Bank International Austria 9
WPP UK 9 9%
Inditex Spain 8
Acciona Spain 7
Corteva US 6 13%
UNIQA Insurance Group Austria 6 52%
International Flavors & Fragrances US 5

DXC Technology US 4
GEA Group Germany 4
17%
Geberit Switzerland 4
Henkel Germany 4
Nestlé Switzerland 4
Other Technology and communications
PKO Bank Polski Poland 4
Consumer packaged goods Industrial goods and machinery
PZU Poland 4 Pharmaceuticals and healthcare
MNC exposure in Ukraine is relatively small. Less than 1% of the 370,320 subsidiaries recorded in our database are established in Ukraine. 12
Source: GlobalData’s Multinational Companies Database
Multinational companies with the highest exposure to Russia
Pharmaceutical companies accounted for 10 of the top 20 companies conducting deals with Russian companies, while the energy and utilities industry accounted for 11 of the
top 20 companies mentioned in the news with Russia.
Posted jobs in Russia, Jan 2020 to Mar 2022 Mentions of Russia in company filings, Jan 2019 to Mar 2022
* Baker Hughes
* Recordati
* Takeda Pharmaceutical
* Kinross Gold
* GlaxoSmithKline
* Kingfisher
* Halliburton
* Philip Morris International
* Siemens
* Carlsberg
* Japan Tobacco
* Enel
* DXC Technology
* Groupe SEB
* Marriott International
* Mondelez International
* Abbott Laboratories
* Coca-Cola
* Ros Agro
* Evergreen Marine
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Deals with Russian companies, Jan 2019 to Mar 2022 Mentions of Russian companies in the news, Jan 2020 to Mar 2022
* F. Hoffmann-La Roche * Etalon Group

Equinor * BP
* Yandex * Samsung Electronics
* Pfizer * Exxon Mobil
* Shell * Engie
* VEON Dr. Reddy's Laboratories
* AstraZeneca * Uniper
* Takeda Pharmaceutical * OMV
* Eli Lilly * TotalEnergies
* Polymetal International * Shell
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Source: GlobalData Job Analytics Database, GlobalData Company Filings Database, GlobalData Deals Database, GlobalData News Database. Asterisk, *, denotes the company HQ is in a country imposing economic sanctions on Russia. 13
Companies with HQ in Russia are not included in these charts.
MNCs with the highest revenue exposure to Ukraine and Russia
International MNCs with the highest revenue contribution from Russia and Ukraine Russian-based MNCs with the highest revenue contribution from Russia
Company Sector HQ Target market Revenue Company Sector HQ Revenue

contribution contribution
(2020) (2020)
Globaltrans Transport and Cyprus Russia 97.2% Mobile Technology and Russia 97.3%
Investment Logistics Telesystems Communications
Yandex Technology and The Netherlands Russia 93.5% Sberbank Rossii Financial Services Russia 96.6%
Communications
Ros Agro Consumer Cyprus Russia 67.7% Detsky Mir Retailing Russia 96.5%
Packaged Goods
VEON Technology and The Netherlands Russia 47.9% Inter RAO Power Russia 92.9%
Communications
Evraz Metals and Mining United Kingdom Russia 38.2% Cherkizovo Consumer Russia 92.3%
Group Packaged Goods
VEON Technology and The Netherlands Ukraine 11.7%
Communications
Medicover Pharmaceuticals Sweden Ukraine 8.1%
and Healthcare
Raiffeisen Bank Financial Services Austria Ukraine 6.6%
International
Turkcell Iletisim Technology and Turkey Ukraine 6.2%
Hizmetleri Communications
OTP Bank Financial Services Hungary Ukraine 5.8%
Source: GlobalData’s Multinational Companies Database 14

2. Conflict Scenario Analysis
Geopolitical drivers point to a protracted shock
The key assumptions and steps in predicting the future of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. This analysis is produced by our economic research partner, TS Lombard
▪ Russia’s three stated aims take the form of demands that Ukraine should:
▪ Become a neutral state (‘demilitarization’).
▪ Recognize the two regions of Donetsk and Luhansk (‘the Donbas’) in south-eastern Ukraine as independent states.
▪ Recognize Crimea as Russian territory.
▪ Russia will continue military operations until it attains its three stated war claims, unless incapacitated by domestic socio-economic breakdown.
▪ The US, and its allies, will maintain intense sanctions with the goal that the fear or reality of a domestic socio-economic breakdown will result in Russia’s ceasefire or
abandonment of its war aims:
▪ This agenda clearly includes leadership change in Russia as a desired effect.
▪ The US will also have the associated objective of demonstrating to China the effectiveness of a US financial-economic response to ‘rogue’ actions by a nuclear power.
▪ China will take advantage as a discounting off-taker of, and vulture investor in, Russian resources, hence allowing Russia to carry on.
▪ Three scenarios for the future course of the conflict are depicted on the next slide:
▪ Scenario 1 is the current base case, reflecting the fact that there are substantive negotiations ongoing despite the full-scale military conflict. Progress is likely to
remain slow in this ‘game-of-chicken’ situation in which each side has much to lose from protracted conflict but will want the other side to be the first to flinch.
▪ Scenario 2 does not lead to an end point but would ultimately transition to either Scenario 1 (more likely) or Scenario 3. The situation remains highly fluid, and this
scenario could become the base case at any point.
▪ The inflection points in both Scenarios 1 and 3 are 9–12 months in the future, underling the expectation that the current crisis will cause a protracted shock
▪ Slides 19 and 20 analyse the outlook for peace talks, as well the factors that condition the timeframe for a possible Russia-Ukraine resolution
Source: TS Lombard 16
Scenario analysis for the Ukraine-Russia conflict
The key assumptions and steps in predicting the future of the Ukraine-Russia conflict: three potential scenarios have been identified
Russia shows some flexibility Disputes about ‘Self-sanctioning’ starts to

Ukraine negotiates
(on interpretation of aims, enforcement/guarantees ease. The Russian economy
(but rejects ultimatums).
definition of ‘victory’). of anything agreed. re-opens.
Scenario 1
Russia continues to apply military leverage.

Therefore, sanctions noose remains tight.
2023 - earliest easing timing
Russia’s three stated war aims are that Ukraine must:
Scenario 2
▪ Become a neutral state (‘demilitarization’)
▪ Recognize Donbas independence Ukrainian resistance and
Intensity of conflict World revulsion:
▪ Recognize Crimea as Russian territory Ukraine rejects Russian counter-insurgency
increases, and regime tightening embargo
demands. (leading to a “forever war”
change in Ukraine. on Russia.
like Iraq/Afghanistan).
Scenario 3
Systemic destabilization in
Russia = huge uncertainties
Social and economic Russia abandons aims and
Chinese
tensions build in Russia, accepts defeat/failure
escape hatch
despite the Chinese ‘back (e.g., Afghanistan 1988,
narrows.
door’ for resource exports. Chechnya 1996).
TIMING: Russia still limps on, thanks to food

self-sufficiency and subsistence economy in
summer months.
Q4/22 - earliest crunch timing
Source: TS Lombard 17
No quick peace dividend from peace talks
Senior Russian officials made positive comments about the outcome of Russia-Ukraine peace talks on March 29, 2022. The questions is are there any serious shifts capable of
bringing early relief from the negative global economic effects of Russia’s war on Ukraine, and the West’s retaliatory sanctions? Although both sides are now engaging on
substantive elements of a possible negotiated settlement, there is still a ‘mountain to climb’.
There are fraught paths to a Russia-Ukraine resolution following Russia’s three stated war aims:
1. Becoming a neutral state

• Key to this is Ukraine’s declared willingness to replace its previous aim of joining NATO with an internationally guaranteed neutrality, including a ‘non-nuclear’ status. Since the
start of the war, Ukrainian leadership has signaled its readiness to negotiate a neutral status; but it has now produced a 10-point written proposal on how this might work.
2. Recognizing Donbas independence and recognizing Crimea as Russian territory
• In a major development on March 25, the Russian military announced that military operations around cities in northeast Ukraine will be wound down and the campaign
concentrated henceforth on “protecting and liberating” the Donbas (in the southeast). While clearly a positive net gain in humanitarian terms, the declaration of the Russian
military’s commitment to taking full control of the whole territory of the Donbas points to the battle for Mariupol continuing and new battles in and around other smaller, but
still substantial, towns such as Slavyansk, that were not previously controlled by Russian-backed rebels.
• Russia is unlikely to be flexible on Donbas-related demands: failure to conquer the Donbas in its entirety would negate their stated rationale and core justification for the war.
• Ukraine has said it will not agree to concede any territory, although some pragmatism now features in the public Ukrainian position, that Ukraine would be ready to proceed
with its proposed neutrality treaty while leaving the question of Russian-occupied Crimea and the Donbas to be resolved later (although the Donbas here is defined as the corner
of the region not controlled by the Ukrainian government since 2014).
3. Creative diplomatic solutions might be found to provide a more positive outlook on a resolution
• Russia’s position on independence of the Donbas oblasts could allow local leaders to commit to holding a referendum, while in Crimea, ‘agreement to disagree’ could be
stabilized by replacing Russian forces in southern Ukraine with a UN peacekeeping force.
• Advancements in substantive negotiating tracks. The extent to which the Russian military focus on the Donbas reduces the overall intensity and public impact of the war, which
may help ease self-sanctioning and stave off developments such as artificial Russian sovereign debt defaults.
But any such positive developments are beset with potential setbacks and possible derailment. For example, the positive signals coming out of the March 29 round of
negotiations included the Russian military’s re-confirmation of its intended withdrawal from the Kyiv region: but this has now led to revelations of suspected Russian atrocities
in locations from which the Russian army has withdrawn. This development will lead to further intensification of Western sanctions, likely impairing the negotiating
environment. An early end to the global economic shock from this war and sanctions crisis is unrealistic.
18
Fraught paths to a Russia-Ukraine resolution (update post peace talks)
The flowchart below offers a snapshot of the factors that condition the timeframe for a Russia-Ukraine resolution – along with the hazards and blockages which could stop or
slow the clock (and these are just the known unknowns).
Russia’s three stated war BLOCKAGE

claims that Ukraine must:
Russian military:
Ukraine now ready to Presence (leverage for
Russia) Referendum:
discuss neutrality deal
1. Become a neutral subject to referendum Withdrawal (referendum
“1-year process”
state precondition)
POTENTIAL FIXES
2. Recognize Donbas Ukraine ambiguity:
independence New battle for the
No territorial Donbas
(“de-nazification”) concessions in principle, Donbas referendum
but ready to discuss Negotiations hostage to
these territories this
1 to 2 years?
3. Recognize Crimea as
Russian territory
Crimea security UN peacekeeping force in
guarantees Kherson
19
War in Europe: ESG’s role in a multi-crisis reality
Energy and food price inflation bring new questions
▪ Energy and food price shocks raise questions around keeping the lights on and protecting
the poorest households:
▪ Petrol taxes are being cut in many countries.

▪ The US government is encouraging additional output from shale producers.
▪ The UK is reviewing the timelines for the phase-out of its remaining coal power
plants.
▪ The medium-term push to decarbonization given new impetus:
▪ The EU aims to cut its reliance on Russian gas by two-thirds by ‘well before 2030’.
▪ Germany is re-considering its decision to abandon nuclear power.
▪ But renewables need scarce minerals. Both China and Russia are key suppliers of the
industrial metals and PGMs needed for EVs and other green manufacturing.
▪ Formal sanctions and the conflict have refocused attention on the wealthy and their ability
to escape formal scrutiny.
▪ ESG investing will become more challenging as the long-term ethical agenda is traded off
against the urgency of helping Ukraine and dealing with the broader fallout of the conflict.
20
Key takeaways: a new era for geopolitics
▪ Geopolitics will be a theme for the decade and should be a regular

topic in boardroom discussions.
▪ Expect a broad effect of deteriorating growth-inflation trade-offs

and ROIs through these channels:
▪ National security will trump growth.

▪ The world is fragmenting into separate economic security
zones with their own technology stacks and standards.
▪ Supply chains: onshoring and reshoring to accelerate.
▪ Energy security will trump ESG considerations, at least in the short

term.
▪ A key question: how strong and durable will the ‘no-limits’

partnership between Russia and China prove?
▪ Business and investment strategies will, in any case, need to take

account of an increasingly multi-polar world.
21
3. Country, Sector, and FX Indices
Equity Indices│ Most stock exchange indices started rising in last one week
As of April 6, 2022. Indexed to 100 on January 1, 2021
Index Japan (NIKKEI 225) Germany (DAX) Index
US (S&P 500 Index) China (Shanghai SE Composite)
140 140
120 120
100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
Jan-21 Jun-21 Nov-21 Apr-22 Jan-21 Jun-21 Nov-21 Apr-22 Jan-21 Jun-21 Nov-21 Apr-22
Jan-21 Jun-21 Nov-21 Apr-22
Index Index
India (NSE CNX NIFTY) France (CAC 40) UK (FTSE 100) Brazil (IBOVESPA) 140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
Jan-21 Jun-21 Nov-21 Apr-22 Jan-21 Jun-21 Nov-21 Apr-22 Jan-21 Jun-21 Nov-21 Apr-22 Jan-21 Jun-21 Nov-21 Apr-22
Index Italy (FTSE MIB) Russia (IMOEX) South Korea (KOSPI) Index
140
Canada (S&P/TSX 60) 140
120 120
100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
Source: Bloomberg, GlobalData 23

Note: Share trading on the Russian Moscow Exchange has been suspended since 25th February. Trading partially resumed on 24th March
Major Currencies (LCU per US$)
As of April 6, 2022.
1.7 Australia $ (AUD) per $ 8.0

Chinese Yuan (RMB) per $ 120
Japanese Yen (JPY) per $ 1.0
Euro (EUR) per $
1.6 0.8
7.0 115
1.5
0.6
1.4 6.0 110
0.4
1.3
5.0 105
1.2 0.2
1.1 4.0 100 0.0
80
Indian Rupee (INR) per $ Singapore $ (SGD) per $ British Pound (GBP) per $ Brazilian Real (BRL) per $
1.5 1.0 7
78
1.4 0.9
76 6
74 1.3 0.8
5
72 1.2 0.7
70 4
68 1.1 0.6
66 1.0 0.5 3
South African Rand (ZAR per $) Canadian Dollar(CAD) per $ Russian Ruble (RUB) per $ 1,280
South Korean Won (KRW) per $
20 1.6 140
130 1,240
18 120
1,200
1.4 110
100 1,160
16
90 1,120
1.2 80 1,080
14 70
60 1,040
12 1.0 50 1,000
Source: Bloomberg; GlobalData 24

Sector equity indices remain mixed
As of April 4, 2022, rebased to 100 on Jan 1, 2021
Aerospace, Defense & Security Apparel Automotive Banking and payments Construction Consumer Index
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
Feb-21 Jun-21 Oct-21 Feb-22 Feb-21 Jun-21 Oct-21 Feb-22 Feb-21 Jun-21 Oct-21 Feb-22 Feb-21 Jun-21 Oct-21 Feb-22 Feb-21 Jun-21 Oct-21 Feb-22 Feb-21 Jun-21 Oct-21 Feb-22
Foodservice Healthcare Insurance Medical Mining Oil & Gas Index

200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
Packaging Pharma Power Retail Technology Travel & Tourism Index

200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
Notes
Equities:
GlobalData’s proprietary sector indices measure the combined share price performance of top companies in each sector. The data is collected daily.
Jobs:
GlobalData’s Jobs Index measures active, advertised jobs for a selection of companies in each sector. The data is collected daily.
Deals:
GlobalData’s Deals Index measures the volume of announced or completed M&A in each sector. The data is collected monthly.
News Sentiment:
GlobalData’s News Sentiment Index measures the net sentiment of news articles by sector on a monthly basis. Net sentiment is calculated by an
algorithm that assesses whether a news article is positive or negative. The index represents the proportion of positive and negative news articles.
Filings Sentiment:
GlobalData’s Filings Sentiment Index measures the net sentiment of listed companies’ regulatory filings. Net sentiment is calculated for each sector and
is calculated on a quarterly basis.
26
4. Economic Sanctions
Sanctions on Russia – Summary (1/11)
Russia-Ukraine crisis to dampen Russia’s economic growth prospects
Severe disruptions in trade, investment, and oil production and supply are on the cards, all alongside a blow to consumer sentiment.
Countries Number of Number of Finance In a bid to cripple Russia’s economy, the US and its allies (EU, Canada and the UK) have disconnected key sanctioned
old new Russian banks from the global financial system SWIFT. Moreover, the aforementioned nations/institution have agreed to
sanctions sanctions prevent the Russian central bank from deploying its €640 billion of international reserves. The assets of biggest Russian
banks, including VTB, Bank Rossiya and Promsvyazbank, have been hit with asset freezes and new business restrictions.
Russia can no longer conduct transactions through the US and EU systems. Furthermore, the US, G7 nations and the EU
United States 822 879 have revoked Russia’s most-favored nation status and denied borrowing privileges at the leading multilateral financial
institutions.
European Union 150 673
Oligarch and elites The UK plans a £50,000 limit on bank accounts held by Russian nationals in the country, and the EU a limit of €100,000 in
EU banks. More than a 100 billionaire oligarchs with ties to Putin’s regime have been targeted by asset freeze and travel
Japan - 115 ban lists around the world. The US has announced sanctions targeting big Russian banks (SberBank and VTB) holding
nearly 80% of all the country’s banking assets. The European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, the UK, Canada and the
US plan to limit the sale of so-called golden passports. The golden passports are a loophole that allows wealthy Russians
United Kingdom 215 801 connected to the Kremlin to become citizens in other countries and access certain financial systems.
Several EU nations and the UK have closed their airspace for Russian flights. Russian energy company Gazprom, the oil
Canada 210 5 Industry
pipeline company Transneft, and the power company RusHydro, and rail and telecoms companies have also been banned
by the US from its credit markets. The UK, US, Japan and EU have introduced a ban on aviation and high-tech exports to
Russia. Germany suspended approval of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline runs
Czech Republic - 4
from Russia to Germany’s Baltic coast. Additionally, Russia has been stripped of hosting the Champions League final by
UEFA with St Petersburg replaced by Paris after Ukraine's Invasion. Meanwhile, the Formula One grand prix and all World
Australia 46 503 Cup skiing events in Russia have been cancelled. Russia has been banned from taking part in the Eurovision song contest.
Moreover, the US along with G7 nations and the EU, have expanded sanctions against Russia to ban luxury goods and
energy investments.
New Zealand 20 3
Travel
Several EU nations, Canada, and the UK have banned Russian planes from transiting through their air space and urging
Switzerland 133 806 others to follow suit, ramping up pressure on President Vladimir Putin by seeking to isolate Moscow following its invasion
of Ukraine.
As of April 6, 2022
Source: GlobalData. Note: For statistical and data purposes, as a standard, GlobalData follows ISO guidelines for list of countries. 28
Sanctions on Russia by country (2/11)
Country Sanctions Sectors impacted Sanctions type
▪ The US’s new sanctions against Russia and imposition of stringent export controls will have an impact on
Russia’s economy, financial system, and access to cutting-edge technology. (February 25, 2022)
▪ US banks plan to sever their correspondent banking ties with Russia’s largest lender, Sberbank (including
25 subsidiaries), within the next 30 days. (February 25, 2022)
▪ Full blocking sanctions on Russia’s and Belarus’s major largest financial institutions, entities, and oligarchs
and their family members. (February 25, 2022)
▪ Sweeping sanctions on Russia’s military including restriction of exports of all US items to targeted military
end users. (February 25, 2022)
United States ▪ Russia-wide restrictions to choke off Russia’s import of technological goods critical to a diversified
economy. (February 25, 2022)
▪ Ban on the import of Russian oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal to the US. Ban on the import of Russian oil, ▪ Oil & Gas
liquefied natural gas, and coal to the US. (March 09, 2022) ▪ Aerospace, Defence ▪ Economic
▪ Russian imports will no longer receive most favored nation treatment and the country won’t have access to & Security ▪ Diplomatic
financing from the leading multilateral financial institutions. (March 11, 2022)
▪ Technology ▪ Defence
▪ The Biden administration continues to announce full blocking sanctions on additional Russian elites and
their family members. (March 11, 2022) ▪ Banking & Payments ▪ Travel
▪ US will end the exportation of luxury items to any person located in the Russian Federation. ▪ Travel & Tourism
▪ President Biden’s Executive Order will also prohibit the import of goods from several signature sectors of
Russia’s economy – including seafood, spirit, and non-industrial diamonds. (March 11, 2022)
▪ The US plans to establish a legal authority for future investment restrictions in any sector of the Russian
economy and has expanded its ability to level penalties on the aerospace, marine and electronics sectors.
(March 24, 2022)
▪ Washington announced new sanctions on 40 Russian defense companies and 28 firms to which it is linked,
328 members of Duma and the chief executive of the country's largest bank. (March 24, 2022)
▪ US designated 21 entities and 13 individuals as part of its crackdown on the Kremlin’s sanctions evasion
networks and technology companies, which are instrumental to the Russian Federation’s war machine.
(March 31, 2022)
Source: GlobalData. Note: For statistical and data purposes, as a standard, GlobalData follows ISO guidelines for list of countries. Date beside each sanction represents the start date. 29
▪ The financial sanctions against Russia target 70% of the Russian banking market and key state-owned
companies, including in defense. (February 25, 2022)
▪ The EU has targeted Russia’s energy sector, a key economic area which benefits the Russian state.
(February 25, 2022)
▪ The EU has banned the export of maritime navigation, radio communication technology, and aircraft and
spare parts necessary for the maintenance of Russian aviation fleets. (February 25, 2022)
▪ EU is limiting Russia's access to crucial technology, such as semiconductors or cutting-edge software and
banning the export of specialized oil-refining technology. (February 25, 2022)
▪ EU plans on freezing European assets linked to Russian President Vladimir Putin and his cronies and close
European Union family members. (February 25, 2022) ▪ Oil & gas
▪ EU has announced a slew of new sanctions against Russia and Belarus. EU will ban three Belarusian banks ▪ Aerospace, Defence ▪ Economic
from the SWIFT banking system and continue to add several more oligarchs and Russian lawmakers to the & Security ▪ Diplomatic
EU blacklist. (March 08, 2022) ▪ Technology ▪ Defence
▪ Russia will be denied the status of most-favored-nation in EU markets. (March 11, 2022)
▪ The EU has suspended Russia's membership rights in leading multilateral financial institutions. (March 11, ▪ Banking & Payments ▪ Travel
2022) ▪ Travel & Tourism
▪ Russian state and its elites will soon be prohibited from using crypto assets to circumvent the sanctions.
(March 11, 2022)
▪ The EU has banned the export of any EU luxury goods from our countries to Russia, as a direct blow to the
Russian elites. (March 11, 2022)
▪ The import of key goods in the iron and steel sector from the Russian Federation will be prohibited. (March
11, 2022)
▪ EU will propose a big ban on new European investments across Russia's energy sector. (March 11, 2022)
▪ EU has frozen the assets of more business leaders who support the Russian state, including Chelsea
football club owner Roman Abramovich and the head of Russian state TV Channel One Konstantin Ernst.
(March 15, 2022)
▪ The first set of sanctions imposed by Japan include prohibiting the issuance of Russian bonds in Japan
and restricting certain Russian individuals from travelling to Japan. (February 23, 2022)
▪ The new package of sanctions include export controls on high-tech products such as semiconductors, a
freeze on assets held by Russian financial institutions and a suspension of visa issuance for certain
Russian individuals and entities. (February 23, 2022)
▪ Japan will freeze assets of 32 Russian and Belarusian government officials and other entities. Payment
and capital transactions with those on the list must require government permits. (March 08, 2022)
▪ Japan will ban exports of Russia-bound oil refinery equipment and Belarus-bound general-purpose items
Japan
that could be used by its military. (March 08, 2022)
▪ Mirroring the US and G7 leader’s efforts to intensify the pressure on Russia, Japan has revoked Russia’s ▪ Banking & Payments ▪ Economic
“most favored nation treatment. (March 06, 2022) ▪ Travel & Tourism ▪ Diplomatic
▪ Furthermore, Japan plans to prohibit the export of luxury goods to Russia while also banning the import
▪ Technology ▪ Defence
of certain goods from Russia. (March 06, 2022)
▪ Japan will prevent Russia from receiving financing from leading multilateral financial institutions that ▪ Aerospace, Defense &
include the IMF, and the World Bank. (March 06, 2022) Security
▪ A further expansion of the scope of persons subject to asset freezing among the elite class, business
oligarchs, and so on who have close ties to President Putin. (March 06, 2022)
▪ A further strengthening of financial sanctions through cooperation with cryptocurrency exchange entities
and others as a response to Russia avoiding sanctions by using digital assets and other means. (March 06,
2022)
▪ Japan has extended sanctions to 15 Russian nationals and nine organizations over the continued Russian
invasion of Ukraine. (March 20, 2022)
▪ Tokyo froze the assets of 25 more Russians and prohibited exports to 81 Russian organizations. (March
25, 2022)
▪ An asset freeze on all major Russian banks. UK has prohibited the ability of all Russian companies to
raise finance on UK markets, and for the Russian state raise sovereign debt on UK markets. (February 24,
2022)
▪ Immediate ban on the ability of Russian airline Aeroflot to land in the UK and suspension of all dual-use
export licenses to Russia. (February 24, 2022)
▪ Legislation to prohibit a wide range of hi-tech exports to Russia. The export of equipment connected to
extracting oil and gas has also been banned. (February 24, 2022)
▪ UK, along with its allies, has shut off Russia’s access to the SWIFT international banking system.
United Kingdom (February 24, 2022) ▪ Aerospace, Defence &
▪ Extending the full range of sanctions to Belarus, given the integration of the nations’ military forces. Security
(February 24, 2022)
▪ Technology ▪ Economic
▪ It is prohibited to provide financial services to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the Ministry
of Finance and National Wealth Fund. (March 01, 2022) ▪ Banking & Payments ▪ Diplomatic
▪ Additional trade measures will prevent UK exports of aviation or space-related items and technology to ▪ Oil & Gas ▪ Defence
Russia. (March 08, 2022) ▪ Travel & Tourism
▪ The UK has announced a ban on exports to Russia of high-end luxury goods. (March 15, 2022)
▪ Additionally, the UK has Russia and Belarus key benefits of WTO membership. (March 15, 2022)
▪ The UK passed the Economic Crime Act, which will allow the government to impose sanctions against
oligarchs already designated by the US and EU under an urgent procedure. (March 15, 2022)
▪ UK imposed 65 new sanctions against a range of Russia’s key strategic industries and individuals
supporting the illegal invasion of Ukraine. (March 14, 2022)
▪ 14 new sanctions were imposed on Russian propagandists and state media who spread misinformation
about Putin’s military attack on Ukraine. (March 31, 2022)
▪ UK has also fast-tracked sanctions against another seven individuals connected to the Strategic Culture
Foundation. (March 31, 2022)
▪ Canada has sanctioned 58 people and entities connected to Russia, key political leaders, and Russian
banks. Also, on the list are members of the Russian Security Council, including key cabinet ministers
close to Russian President Vladimir Putin. (February 24, 2022)
▪ A prohibition on anyone dealing directly or indirectly in Russia's sovereign debt in a bid to prevent
that country from raising debt to cover spending costs. (February 24, 2022)
Canada ▪ Canada is cancelling existing export permits for Russia, worth an estimated $700 million in trade.
(February 24, 2022)
▪ Banking & Payments
▪ The sanctions freeze assets, prohibit the conduct of financial transactions and impose a ban to travel
▪ Oil & gas ▪ Economic
to Canada with respect to any entity on the list. (February 24, 2022)
▪ Canada sanctioned five Russian individuals and barred 32 Russian firms and government ▪ Travel & Tourism ▪ Diplomatic
organizations from receiving defense equipment or supplies from the nation. (March 11, 2022) ▪ Aerospace, Defence & ▪ Defence
▪ Canada amended the Special Economic Measures Regulations to sanction 15 senior officials of the Security
Russia government, who are now subject to asset freeze and dealings prohibition. (March 14, 2022)
▪ Technology
▪ Additional 160 members of the Russian Federation Council have been sanctioned, who are now
subject to a broad dealings ban. With these names, all members of the Russian Federation Council
are now sanctioned by Canada. (March 23, 2022)
▪ Russia-bound exports of a broad range of items in the areas of electronics, computers,
telecommunications have been prohibited. (March 24, 2022)
▪ The Restricted Goods and Technologies List also includes a range of items in the areas of sensors and
lasers, navigation and avionics, marine, aerospace and transportation. (March 24, 2022)
▪ Switzerland, breaking its commitment to neutrality, has decided to adopt wholesale swinging EU
sanctions against Russia, potentially freezing billions of dollars in assets. (February 28, 2022)
▪ The Federal Council has imposed an entry ban on five oligarchs close to Vladimir Putin from entering
the country. Flights from Russia have been banned, excluding flights carrying diplomats. (February 28,
2022)
▪ The ban on imports, exports, and investments concerning Crimea and Sevastopol has been extended to
the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. (March 04, 2022)
▪ The new sanctions measures have imposed a blanket ban on export of dual-use goods to Russia.
Switzerland ▪ Furthermore, the new measures prohibit export to Russia or Ukraine specific military goods that could
contribute to the military and technological strengthening of Russia. (March 04, 2022) ▪ Aerospace, Defence &
▪ Switzerland has introduced prohibitions on supplies of items “suited for use in oil refining“. (March 04, Security
2022) ▪ Economic
▪ Technology
▪ Switzerland has introduced prohibitions on the provision of drilling, well testing, logging and ▪ Diplomatic
completion, supplying floating units in Russia, including in its exclusive economic zone. (March 04, ▪ Defence
2022) ▪ Oil & Gas
▪ The Federal Council decided to adopt the new EU sanctions against Russia, imposing the current EU ▪ Travel & Tourism
sanctions on a further 197 individuals and 9 entities. (March 18, 2022)
▪ The fourth package of economic sanctions includes more extensive measures in relation to luxury
goods, restrictions on transactions with certain state-owned enterprises and a ban on providing rating
services to Russian clients or entities. (March 18, 2022)
▪ The Federal Council has prohibited export of goods and related services for the Russian energy sector.
▪ A ban is introduced on the import of iron and steel goods from Russia, or originating in Russia, as well
as a ban on the export of luxury goods and maritime navigation goods to Russia. (March 25, 2022)
▪ In the financial sector, transactions with certain state-owned companies and the provision of credit
rating services are prohibited. (March 25, 2022)
Taiwan (Province of
China)
▪ Taiwan has announced its plans to join the U.S. and its allies in imposing sanctions on Russia following
its invasion of Ukraine. As the world's biggest contract chipmaker, Taiwan is expected to control the ▪ Technology ▪ Economic
exports of cutting-edge technology and other hi-tech products to Russia. (February 26, 2022)
▪ New Zealand will introduce a targeted travel ban against Russian government officials and other
individuals associated with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (February 25, 2022)
▪ New Zealand will prohibit the export of goods to Russian military and security forces. While exports
New Zealand from New Zealand under the now-prohibited category were extremely limited, a blanket ban removed
the ability for exporters to apply for a permit and sent a clear signal of support to Ukraine. (February 25, ▪ Travel & Tourism
2022) ▪ Economic
▪ New Zealand would also withdraw from foreign affairs bilateral consultations with Russia until further ▪ Diplomatic
notice. (February 25, 2022) ▪ Aerospace, Defence &
▪ Defence
▪ The parliament passed a Russia sanctions regime into law, enabling the government to freeze assets Security
located in New Zealand and prevent those sanctioned from moving assets to the country. (March 09,
2022)
▪ Sanctions will be imposed on states that were complicit with Russia, including Belarus and could also
apply to trade, and financial institutions. (March 09, 2022)
▪ Australia continues to impose sanctions against designated individuals of strategic significance to Moscow
and who voted to authorize sending Russian troops to Ukraine. (February 25, 2022)
▪ Australia’s sanctions on Russia consist of the following measures: restrictions on providing assets to
Australia designated persons, restrictions on dealing with the assets of designated persons, and ban on travel by
designated persons. (February 25, 2022)
▪ Targeted financial sanctions against Russian Armed Forces, and additional six senior Russian military
commanders responsible for implementing attacks on Ukraine. (March 08, 2022) ▪ Banking & ▪ Economic
▪ Australia announced fresh sanctions on 33 Russian oligarchs, prominent businesspeople and their Payments
immediate family members. (March 14, 2022) ▪ Travel & Tourism ▪ Diplomatic
▪ Australia placed sanctions on 11 additional Russian banks and government entities, with most the
country’s banking assets now covered by the sanctions. (March 18, 2022)
▪ Australia has banned the sale of alumina and aluminum ores to Russia. (March 20, 2022)
▪ The Australian Government has also placed new sanctions on 22 additional Russian propagandists and
purveyors of disinformation, including senior editors from organizations including Russia Today, InfoRos,
etc., and on the Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and members of his family. (March 25, 2022)
▪ In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Czech Republic will stop issuing visas to Russian citizens,
Czech Republic except in humanitarian cases. The authorities will also review already issued residence visas for Russians
▪ Economic
living in the Czech Republic. (February 25, 2022) ▪ Travel & Tourism
▪ Further, the Ministry of Finance will inspect Russian companies or companies with Russian owners in ▪ Diplomatic
relation to the drawing of public funds in the Czech Republic. (February 25, 2022) ▪ Banking &
▪ Travel
▪ The Czech government will speed up the process of withdrawing from two post-Soviet banks, including the Payments
International Bank for Economic Cooperation and the International Investment Bank - and will call on other
EU members to do the same. (February 25, 2022)
▪ Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a package of financial sanctions in a bid to constrain
Russia’s capacity to conduct war against Ukraine. Financial institutions in Singapore will be prohibited
from the following:
I. Entering into transactions or establishing business relationships with several Russian banks.
II. Providing financial services in relation to the export of military and dual-use goods (subject to
Singapore’s export sanctions on Russia).
III. Providing financial services in relation to designated Russian non-bank entities which are
Singapore
involved in certain activities.
IV. Entering into transactions or arrangements, or providing financial services that facilitate fund
raising by: ▪ Banking & Payments
I. the Russian government; ▪ Travel & Tourism ▪ Economic
II. the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; ▪ Aerospace, Defense & ▪ Diplomatic
III. any entity owned or controlled by them or acting on their direction or behalf. Security ▪ Defense
V. Entering into transactions or providing financial services in relation to the following sectors, in ▪ Oil & Gas
the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk:
I. -transport;
II. -telecommunications;
III. -energy; and
IV. -prospecting, exploration and production of oil, gas and mineral resources
VI. Entering into or facilitating any transactions involving cryptocurrencies, to circumvent any of
the above prohibitions. The prohibited cryptocurrency transactions cover all transactions that
involve cryptocurrencies and extend to the payment and settlement of transactions that relate
to digital assets. (March 5, 2022)
▪ South Korea has imposed sanctions against Russia’s financial system by putting restrictions on
transactions with major Russian banks and excluding them from the SWIFT payments system.
South Korea ▪ The nation has banned transactions with seven major Russian banks and their affiliates, including
Sberbank of Russia PJSC. (February 28, 2022) ▪ Banking & Payments ▪ Economic
▪ Seoul has tightened export controls against Russia by banning shipments of strategic items. The restricted ▪ Aerospace, Defence
items will include electronics, semiconductors, computers, information and communications, sensors and & Security ▪ Defense
lasers, navigation and avionics, and marine and aerospace equipment. (February 28, 2022)
▪ The Republic of Korea has banned all financial transactions with the Russian Central Bank and sovereign
wealth funds (except for energy-related payments), as well as Bank Rossiya. (March 07, 2022)
▪ The Bahamas has announced strict measures against Russia and ordered a halt all transactions with
Bahamas Russian entities that have been put under sanction by the US, the UK, and the EU. The sanctions are two-
fold:
I. the local regulators are directed to report on whether any of the entities flagged by the US have ▪ Banking & Payments ▪ Economic
local dealings;
II. the local financial regulators have issued a directive for institutions to adopt the restrictions
imposed by the Western nations. (March 12, 2022)
5. Impact on the Global Economy
Economic growth to slow in 2022
All regions to witness economic growth is 2022, but this is forecast to be slower compared to 2021. Asia to be the fastest growing region
• Despite visible green shoots in key macroeconomic indicators in the first half of 2021, the emergence of new COVID-19 Omicron variant and its fast spread
has made the global economic recovery increasingly uneven towards the tail end of 2021. Although the intensity of the spread of Omicron has reduced
globally in January and February 2022, Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine has dimmed the global economic recovery prosects.
• Against this backdrop, GlobalData forecasts that the world economy will grow at a slower pace of 3.5% in 2022 following a 5.9% growth in 2021. On the other
hand, the global inflation rate is projected to rise to 6% in 2022 from 3.5% in the previous year due to supply chain disruption amid the Ukraine-Russia war.
• GlobalData, however, anticipates Asia-Pacific to be the fastest growing region in 2022 with the real GDP growth rate forecast at 4.2%, followed by Middle East
and Africa (4.1%), North America (3.4%), Africa (3.4%), West Europe (3.3%), Latin America (1.9%) and East Europe (-2.9%).
• Following the Ukraine-Russia war, prices of oil and natural gas skyrocketed and put an upward pressure on the already high inflation rate. Amid geopolitical
tensions, there exists risk to investments, trade, and consumption demand, due to which GlobalData revised its real GDP growth forecast downward for the
regions. Real GDP growth for Asia-Pacific has been revised downward by 0.5 percentage points (pp), East Europe by 6.5 pp, Western Europe by 0.7 pp and
North America by 0.5 pp in April 2022 compared to its earlier projections.
• In Asia, India and China are forecast to grow by 7.7% and 4.5%, respectively, in 2022. Despite the risks and the expected slowdown in economic growth, India
and China are expected to drive global growth in 2022. Other countries including Vietnam, Bangladesh, Malaysia and the Philippines are projected to register
above 6% growth in 2022.
• In East Europe, Ukraine and Russia is forecast to contract by 31.5% and 12.5% respectively in 2022, and the outlook remains highly uncertain. In West
Europe, the UK, Ireland, Greece, Spain, and Portugal, are forecast to grow by 3.5% and above in 2022, which is however a downward revision from earlier
projections.
• In North America, real GDP in the US and Canada are projected to grow by 3.4% and 3.9% in 2022, which is slower than the 5.7% and 4.9% growth recorded
in the previous year, according to GlobalData estimates.
Note: As of April 6, 2022, GlobalData use a consensus-based forecasting methodology for its key macroeconomic indicators, which combines and standardizes inputs from up to 32 different contributors.
Source: GlobalData; Bloomberg 40
Economic Impact - 2022 real GDP growth revised downward for most regions
All regions to witness economic growth is 2022, which in however slower compared to 2021. Asia to be the fastest growing
% 5.9 5.9
World Africa Asia-Pacific East Europe %
6 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.7
4.4 4.7
4.2
3.6 3.4 3.9 4.1 3.7 3.9
4 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5
3.1 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.5
2
0
2021E 2022F 2023F 2024f 2021E 2022F 2023F 2024f 2021E 2022F 2023F 2024f 2021E 2022F 2023F 2024f
-2
-4 -2.9
North America Western Europe %

% Latin America Middle East and Africa 5.6 5.6
5.9 5.9 5.1 5.4
6
3.9 4.0
4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
3.4 3.3
4 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.0
2.4 2.3 1.9 2.2
2.1 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6
1.9 1.6 1.8
2
0
2021E 2022F 2023F 2024f 2021E 2022F 2023F 2024f
2021E 2022F 2023F 2024f 2021E 2022F 2023F 2024f
-2
-4
Note: As of April 6, 2022, GlobalData use a consensus-based forecasting methodology for its key macroeconomic indicators, which combines and standardizes inputs from up to 32 different contributors. 41
Source: GlobalData; Bloomberg
Economic Impact - 2022 real GDP growth revised downward for most major economies
% %
Euro Area (19) China Japan
United States
16
7.8 7.8
4.9 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.1 4.5 4.6 4.9 4.6 4.9
4.13.2 3.8 3.4 1.8 1.8 2.9 2.1
1.9 2.4 1.8 2.3 1.2 1.7 0.7 1.0
4 1.51.8 1.6 1.9
2021E 2022F 2023F 2024f 2021E 2022F 2023F 2024f 2021E 2022F 2023F 2024f
2021E 2022F 2023F 2024f
-8
-20
-32
% India United Kingdom Russia Ukraine %

16 12.2
9.09.0 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.5
6.0 6.4 5.8 6.1 4.3 3.9 4.2 4.2 3.2 3.2 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.0
1.9 1.5 1.8 1.6 2.6 1.8 1.7 0.8
4 0.1
2021E 2022F 2023F 2024f 2021E 2022F 2023F 2024f 2021E 2022F 2023F 2024f 2021E 2022F 2023F 2024f
-8
-12.5
-20
-32
-31.5
Economic Impact - 2022 inflation rate revised upward for most regions
% World Africa Asia-Pacific East Europe %
25
20
15
9.4 9.4
10 6.9 6.9 8.4
6.0 5.9 5.9 5.3 5.3
4.6 4.8 4.7 5.3 5.1
5 3.63.5 3.03.3 3.23.0 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.2 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.5 3.9 3.5 4.4
0
2021E 2022F 2023F 2024F 2021E 2022F 2023F 2024F 2021E 2022F 2023F 2024F
2021E 2022F 2023F 2024F
%
Latin America Middle East and Africa North America Western Europe %
25.2
25.2
25
20
15.015.3
15
11.411.5
10 9.2 9.3
5.45.4 5.05.2 5.5
4.14.3 3.64.0 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.6
5 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.0
1.9 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.5 2.0
0
2021E 2022F 2023F 2024F 2021E 2022F 2023F 2024F 2021E 2022F 2023F 2024F
2021E 2022F 2023F 2024F
6. Impact on Commodity Markets
Oil prices skyrocketed amid Ukraine-Russia tensions
300
Cushing, OK WTI spot
▪ On February 24, 2022, Russia price FOB (dollars per With Russia being a leading producer of oil
invaded Ukraine. barrel) and natural gas, prices started climbing,
▪ On February 25, 2022, oil prices Europe brent spot price which further started threatening heating
250 soared to $105 per barrel, first FOB (dollars per barrel) bills and having a knock-on effect on the
time since 2014. prices of goods. Germany’s decision to halt
Natural gas (dollars per the gas pipeline project connecting to
barrel) Russia will likely push up gas prices in the
Index (Jan 1, 2020 =100)
200 EU.
Gold (dollars per barrel)
The prices of key commodities are
expected to stay at elevated levels due to
150 Silver (dollars per barrel) the supply chain disruption caused by the
Russia-Ukraine conflict.
100
Prices (as of April Year-on-Year
Commodities
6, 2022) Growth (%)
Crude Oil, Brent (US$/bbl) 100.99 97.2%

50
Crude Oil, WTI (US$/bbl) 111.76 68.2%
Natural Gas (USD/MMBtu) 5.34 116.1%

0
Gold (US$/troy oz) 1919.49 10.1%
Silver (US$/troy oz) 24.28 -3.5%
Note: As of April 6, 2022.

Source: GlobalData; The International Energy Agency 45
Energy prices spiking as markets price in supply risk
Crude oil futures prices ($ per barrel) Natural gas futures prices ($ per mmBtu)
140 60
120
50
100
40
80
30
60
20
40
10
20
0 0
Crude oil, Brent Crude oil, WTI Liquefied natural gas, Japan Natural gas, Europe Natural gas, US
Crude futures have topped $100 per barrel, levels not seen since 2014. European gas and global LNG futures have surged to historic highs.
Source: GlobalData, World Bank, Market Data. Note: Futures as of March 9, 2022 46
Amid fears of a European gas shortage, imports from Russia have increased
Daily gas imports into Europe by major pipeline route Daily gas volumes in EU storage
Algeria Belarus Libya Russia Turkey Ukraine 5-yr Range 2022
6 1,200
5
1,000
4
800
TWh
TWh
600
400
1
200
0
07-Mar
27-Feb
01-Feb
03-Feb
05-Feb
07-Feb
09-Feb
11-Feb
13-Feb
15-Feb
17-Feb
19-Feb
21-Feb
23-Feb
25-Feb
01-Mar
03-Mar
05-Mar
09-Mar
11-Mar
13-Mar
0
Feb Mar 01/01/2022 01/02/2022 01/03/2022 01/04/2022
Gas imports from Russia through Ukraine, Belarus, and Turkey have Volumes of gas in European storage started this year comparatively low, but
risen drastically since the start of the conflict. withdrawals have been slower due to a mild winter
Source: GlobalData, European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG), Gas Infrastructure Europe 47
7. Impact by Sector
Sectors covered
Aerospace, Defense & Security Insurance
Agribusiness Medical
Apparel Mining
Oil & Gas

Automotive
Packaging
Banking & Payments
Pharma
Banking
Power
Payments
Retail
Wealth Management
Sports
Construction
Technology & Telecoms
Consumer Enterprise Technology & Services
Foodservice Telecom: Consumer Services & Technology
Healthcare Travel & Tourism

49
Impact by Sector
Aerospace, Defense & Security

Return to sector analysis index page
Aerospace, defense & security
Initial market reaction to the conflict resulted in large share price gains for major Western defense suppliers
Defense was the only sector to see broad rises on day one of the invasion
Equity Index Active Jobs Deals Index
Market Index Jobs Index M&A Volumes
250
200 200
200
150 150
150
100 100
100
50 50 50
0
0 0
Feb/21 May/21 Aug/21 Nov/21 Feb/22
Feb-21 Jun-21 Oct-21 Feb-22 Feb-21 May-21 Aug-21 Nov-21 Feb-22
News Sentiment & Volume Quarterly Filings Sentiment WoW MoM YTD
Positive News Negative News Positive Score Negative Score INDICES
50
50.00
Equity 2.8% 10.1% 8.5%
25.00 25 Jobs -0.6% -10.2% -9.7%
M&A - 38.5% -10.0%
- 0
SENTIMENTS
(25.00) -25 News - -0.7% -1.0%
Filings - - 13.3%
(50.00) -50
Jan-21 Oct-21 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021
Equity, news, and jobs indices as of April 4, filings sentiments and deals indices as of March 31, 2022. 51
Source: GlobalData
Aerospace, defense & security: geopolitics impact assessment
A watershed moment for Europe and the world, a test for the West, and a reappraisal of defense priorities
Industry predictions Supply chain & demand disruption
• Australia, the UK, and the US have announced the collaborative development of • Although relatively small economies by global standards, Ukraine and Russia are
hypersonic weapons via the AUKUS pact, countering a perceived Russian lead in substantial exporters of platinum, aluminum, titanium, nickel, cobalt, lithium,
this technology. Other areas of weakness that have received limited investment in neon, xenon and palladium utilized in Civil and Military Aerospace and Defense
past decades, such as electronic warfare, are also likely to come into scope. Electronics. The heavy industries of Aerospace and Defense will also be impacted
by the surge in energy prices more broadly as a result of the conflict.
• Historically neutral Finland has prepared a defense white paper, which is likely
to suggest NATO membership later this month. Sweden may follow. • The conflict risks derailing the fragile aerospace industry recovery since
the pandemic. The substantial Ukrainian aerospace industry, one of the largest in
• An increase of defense spend closer to the NATO agreed target of 2% across the world, faces short term annihilation.
Europe would result in spending approximately a third higher than current,
Sanctions impact
although it is likely to take some time to ramp up to this level despite political will
in many countries.
• The ability of the Russian state to finance and develop next
generation defense platforms will be hit hard and will impact prospects in growth
• Western defense companies have seen an increase in orders of relatively
export markets in the Middle East.
cheap, asymmetric self-defense capabilities. Notably, anti-tank and anti-aircraft
missile systems along with associated ammunition as nations deplete their own • Dependent existing importers of Russian hardware such as India stand to be
stocks to aid Ukraine. impacted by more stringent application of US CAATSA regulations, likely impacting
the S-400 SAM and stealth frigate procurements.
• Along with Germany's significant EUR100 billion increase, Poland, Romania,
Sweden, Denmark, and China have all announced defense budget increases while • Potential Russian counter-sanctions on titanium would impact the global
France and Canada are considering doing so. However, the UK rules out further
aerospace industry. Global stockpiles have been bought up and supply constraints
spending in the short term due to both fiscal constraint and a rise in past 2023 would have a large impact on production.
defense spending announced during the pandemic, which is deemed sufficient.
• Countries such as Finland, Switzerland and Sweden are joining sanction
regimes and, in many cases, also providing lethal aid to Ukraine in a step change to
their historically neutral positions. 52
Source: GlobalData
Countries exposed to Russian aerospace, defense & security companies
Countries that are importing or have development programs with Russia based ADS Companies
Countries with largest programs by value from Russian ADS companies

Several countries have ongoing procurement
Vietnam $2,460
programs with Russian companies. Venezuela $480
Uzbekistan $912
These countries have the highest exposure United Arab Emirates $2,030
Turkey $2,552
to the Ukrainian conflict as Russian Syrian Arab Republic $646
companies will struggle to get the parts and Serbia $495
components needed due to sanctions. Saudi Arabia $2,500
Qatar $2,542
Nigeria $698
India is most exposed due to its historical Myanmar $240
relationship with Russia. Present programs Libya $1,188
Laos $100
include joint ventures in production, supply Kazakhstan $304
of spares and services, and planned Iraq $2,500
upgrades for existing equipment. India $20,244
Egypt $2,445
China $11,720
There is also the small possibility that if Bolivia $300
Russian companies can fulfil these orders, Belarus $2,704
Bangladesh $1,450
the cost is likely to go down due to the
Armenia $300
collapse of the ruble. Angola $186
Algeria $4,147
Algeria $259
The chart on the right highlights the current
collective program value that countries have 0 5000 10000 15000 20000
Total Program Value from 2021-2031 in US$ Million
with Russian companies.
Source: Country exposure data is based on information gathered in ADS sector data reports
53
NATO defense budget forecast updates
Major NATO countries defense budget Albania defense budget (US$ billion) Belgium defense budget (US$ billion)
(US$ billion)
Pre-war Influenced by war Pre-war Influenced by war
Pre-war Influenced by war
2,000 Percentage of GDP Percentage of GDP
1,500 0.50 3.0% 20 3.0%
1,000 2.0% 15 2.0%
0.25 10
500 1.0% 1.0%
5
0 0.00 0.0% 0 0.0%
2022
2018
2019
2020
2021
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2025
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2026
2027
Bulgaria defense budget (US$ billion) Canada defense budget (US$ billion) Croatia defense budget (US$ billion)
Pre-war Influenced by war Pre-war Influenced by war Pre-war Influenced by war
Percentage of GDP Percentage of GDP Percentage of GDP
2.5 3.0% 60 3.0% 4 3.0%
2.0 3
1.5 2.0% 40 2.0% 2.0%
2
1.0 1.0% 20 1.0% 1.0%
0.5 1
0.0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
54
Czech Republic defense budget (US$ Denmark defense budget (US$ billion) Estonia defense budget (US$ billion)
billion)
Pre-war Influenced by war Pre-war Influence of war
Pre-war Influenced by war
Percentage of GDP Percentage of GDP
Percentage of GDP
10 3.0% 15 2.0% 3.0 2.4%
1.5% 2.5
2.0% 10 2.0 2.2%
5 1.0% 1.5
1.0% 5 1.0 2.0%
0.5% 0.5
0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0 1.8%
2021
2018
2019
2020
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
France defense budget (US$ billion) Germany defense budget (US$ billion) Greece defense budget (US$ billion)
Pre-war Influence of war Percentage of GDP Pre-war Influence of war Pre-war Influenced by war
140 2.5% 140 2.5%
120 2.0% 120 10 4.0%
2.0%
100 1.5% 100 8 3.0%
80 80 1.5% 6
60 1.0% 60 1.0% 4 2.0%
40 0.5% 40
20 0.5% 2 1.0%
20 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2024
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2025
2026
2027
2026
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2027
55
Hungary defense budget (US$ billion) Italy defense budget (US$ billion) Latvia defense budget (US$ billion)
6 3.0% 60 3.0% 2 2.4%
4 2.0% 40 2.0% 2 2.2%
1
2 1.0% 20 1.0% 1 2.0%
0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 1.8%
2025
2020
2023
2024
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2026
2027
2018
2019
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2019
2020
2021
2022
2025
2026
2027
Lithuania defense budget (US$ billion) Luxembourg defense budget (US$ billion) Montenegro defense budget (US$ billion)
3 3.0% 2.0 1.5% 0.2 3.0%
2 2.0% 1.5 1.0% 0.1 2.0%
1.0
1 1.0% 0.5% 0.1 1.0%
0.5
0 0.0% 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
2025
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2026
2027
2019
2018
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
56
Netherlands defense budget (US$ billion) North Macedonia defense budget (US$ Norway defense budget (US$ billion)
billion)
Percentage of GDP Pre-war Influenced by war Percentage of GDP
25 3.0% 0.30 Percentage of GDP 3.0% 15 3.0%
20 12
15 2.0% 0.20 2.0% 2.0%
9
10 1.0% 0.10 1.0% 1.0%
5 6
0 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 3 0.0%
2026
2018
2023
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2027
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2024
2025
2026
2027
Poland defense budget (US$ billion) Portugal defense budget (US$ billion) Romania defense budget (US$ billion)
40 4.0% 8 3.0% 15 3.0%
30 3.0% 6 2.0% 10 2.0%
20 2.0% 4
10 1.0% 2 1.0% 5 1.0%
0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
2026
2020
2023
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2027
2018
2019
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2024
2025
2026
2027
57
Slovenia defense budget (US$ billion) Spain defense budget (US$ billion) Turkey defense budget (US$ billion)
3.0 2.0% 50 3.0% 40 2.0%

40 30 1.5%
2.0 1.5% 2.0%
30
1.0% 20 1.0%
20 1.0%
1.0 0.5% 10 10 0.5%
0.0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2019
2018
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
UK defense budget (US$ billion) US defense budget (US$ billion)

100 3.0% 1,000 4.0%
80
60 2.0% 3.5%
500
40 1.0% 3.0%
20
0 0.0% 0 2.5%
2025
2023
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2026
2027
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2024
2025
2026
2027
58
Aerospace, defense & security companies by exposure to Russia
National security concerns in the Companies Aggregate Exposure Revenue ($M) #News #FilingMentions #Deals #Jobs Posted
development of sensitive Lockheed Martin Corp 67,044 13 10 0 0
technologies prevent companies Raytheon Technologies Corp 64,388 10 12 0 0
from taking part in cooperation or The Boeing Co 62,286 48 31 0 134
development, as in other Airbus SE 56,899 22 6 1 0
industries. General Dynamics Corp 38,469 2 6 0 1
Northrop Grumman Corp 35,667 0 4 0 0
The table on the right shows the Thales SA 19,367 5 29 1 5
exposure for western companies Safran SA 18,959 4 8 0 3
in the commercial aviation space. L3Harris Technologies Inc 17,814 0 3 0 0
Leonardo SpA 15,287 7 13 1 0
Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc 15,165 11 6 0 0
With recent announcements from
Textron Inc 12,382 2 0 0 0
Boeing, we expect suspensions of
Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc 9,524 1 0 0 0
hiring in Russia by these AviChina Industry & Technology Co Ltd 7,263 0 1 0 0
companies and other companies Rheinmetall AG 6,697 4 13 0 0
may exit any JVs or partnerships Dassault Aviation SA 6,260 2 8 0 0
they are a part of. Bombardier Inc 6,085 5 20 1 0
United Aircraft Corp 5,976 155 9 5 0
Howmet Aerospace Inc 4,972 0 33 0 0
AVIC Aircraft Co Ltd 4,853 1 0 0 0
Source: Company exposure data is based on company information on ADS Intelligence Center.
59
Impact by Sector
Agribusiness
Agriculture and agri-business impact assessment
Short-term supply disruptions are the tip of the iceberg for the agricultural sector over the next two years
• This still has the feeling of a perfect storm. Fate has conspired to make market • Efforts to control local food prices using export restrictions have been put in
conditions as difficult as possible for buyers of grains and oilseeds. place in Argentina, Russia, and Indonesia (though this has now been replaced
by a hike in export taxes), which have also reduced the availability of supplies
• First, crude petroleum prices provide an effective floor price to vegetable oil crops via for importers.
the potential for conversion to biofuels. Crude remains well above $100 per barrel,
lifting the floor to this price band—and current prices are much further still above this • The only real solution available is for governments to lower biofuel mandates
level. where these are using food crops. But with petroleum prices very high and
energy security at a premium, many governments remain unwilling to cut
• Second, weather in the form of La Niña droughts in South America and excessive rain in biodiesel mandates to release oil and grain crops for food uses.
SE Asia, as well as exceptional heat in the Canadian Prairies, has cut wheat, soybean,
and canola output, and slowed the recovery in palm oil production. The war in Ukraine • Some importing countries have tried to moderate the impact of high prices by
has undone the predicted increase in Black Sea sunflower oil and wheat availability that cutting import tariffs. The prime example is India, but in its case, lower tariffs
would have helped offset these poor weather crops. are widely believed to raise FOB prices for its vegetable oil imports.
• Third, the idea that help will come via increased plantings from other places this spring Sanctions impact
and autumn is hindered by soaring input costs, led by fertilizers, which will lower
▪ Already-tight global fertilizer supply chains have been hit again by restricted
application rates and harm crop yields into the 2022/23 season.
shipping operations and the latest sanctions on Russia and Belarus, two of the
• Without a major short-term supply response from outside of the Black Sea, food world's leading suppliers of nitrogenous and potash fertilizers. Soaring natural
consumers will be left to absorb the burden of balancing supply and demand in grain gas prices (a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer production) has limited any
and oils markets via higher prices and reduced consumption. In the very short run, supply response in this sector and contributed to recent price gains.
importers can run down their stocks but the poorest people, notably in Africa and the
▪ Restrictive export policy responses has heightened fears about creeping
Near East of Asia, will be obliged to economise on their food purchases until the
protectionism and the potentially adverse consequences for food-insecure
situation returns to normal.
nations over the next few years.
• All of this points to prices remaining high well into the next crop season.
61
Source: LMC International, part of GlobalData
Crop prices have eased back
Although many near-term Ukraine supply disruptions following the invasion are still in place, Russian Black Sea supplies have begun to flow and Ukrainian railways are
transporting goods westwards from the less affected western part of the country. Prices have fallen back 25% from their peaks, while corn/maize prices had already stabilized
at a less dramatic plateau (although the impact on anyone looking for non-GMO corn is more severe). Some Black Sea sunflower oil prices are starting to appear for Russian
material, but alternative oils, represented here by palm oil, remain the barometer for vegetable oil tightness.
Selected world crop daily prices, Jan - Mar 2022

550 2,000
500 1,800
450 1,600
Palm Oil, $/tonne

400 1,400
$/tonne
350 1,200
300 1,000
250 800
200 600
04 Jan 14 Jan 24 Jan 03 Feb 13 Feb 23 Feb 05 Mar 15 Mar 25 Mar
US Corn US Wheat Crude Palm Oil, FOB Indonesia (RH axis)
Source: LMC International, part of GlobalData 62

Some Black Sea shipping is operating
There are still ships entering the Black Sea region. Our map, from www.vesselfinder.com, shows the level of activity in the region, with each arrow representing a ship on March
29th. While there are no ships going to ports in Ukraine, such as Odessa, there are still vessels going to and from Novorossiysk in Russia. The port of Constanta in Romania is
also still operating.
Black Sea ship activity (29-03-2022)
ODESSA
NOVOROSSIYSK
CONSTANTA
Source: https://www.vesselfinder.com/ 63
Price reaction varies across commodities
The most notable price effects have been on energy and grains, reflecting the reliance on Ukraine and Russia for these raw materials: 30% of global wheat exports originate
from Black Sea ports (for corn, the share is 20%), while Black Sea sunflower oil exports represent 10% of world vegetable oil exports.
The outlier is sugar, whose price is linked to Brazilian gasoline prices, where Petrobras has prevented Brazilian price rises. Where sugar crops compete with grains and oilseeds,
e.g. the EU, this will send a signal to farmers to devote more land to grains and less to sugar crops.
Price change in selected world crop and energy prices since February 2022
EU Natural Gas
Wheat (US Gulf)
Palm Oil
Corn (US Gulf)
Brent Crude Oil
No.11 Sugar
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Ukrainian prospects for oilseed and grain harvests and exports
The diagram below reveals that we should currently be at the seasonal peak for supplies of sunflower oil from the Black Sea region. The EU, India and MENA are the prime
destinations for this oil, and so it is unsurprising that stories have begun to emerge about shortages of sun oil on supermarket shelves in Europe, while MENA is suffering more
widespread food supply hardships. Short of an effective ceasefire, there is little that can be done to unlock this season’s supplies from Ukraine, and the question for the
market’s now is to assess the impact on next season’s output. Spring planting in Ukraine is dominated by maize (corn) and sunflower. Local estimates hope that half the
sunflower seed area will be planted on time, while 15-20% may be planted late; nonetheless, we fear as much as 35% will not be planted at all. To make matters worse,
rapeseed areas were a record last winter, but up to half are in oblasts that Russia has been attacking.
Monthly Black Sea sunflower oil export, 2017 - 2021 Local supplies of fertiliser, chemicals and fuel are down a great deal.
This favours low input crops, such as barley and pulses, but is
12% particularly difficult for maize. Sunflower will be hit also, but soybeans,
as a nitrogen-fixing crop, should be somewhat better placed.
Monthly share of Oct-Sept sun oil exports
11%
As a result, winter wheat yields later this year could be down 20%, with
output of maize, the most input-intensive crop, perhaps falling by half.
10% Sunflower output may contract a bit less, perhaps 40-50%.
9% As for Ukrainian crushing/processing, Russia has shelled crushing plants

and export facilities. With 40% or so of the sunflower crop crushed
before the conflict, crushers may process 65% of the crop in 2021/22
8% with the backlog crushed next year — offsetting some of the slump in
the 2022/23 harvest.
7%
Ukraine’s sunflower oil exports in 2021/22 may be 2.75 million tonnes
(40%) below initial expectations. If peace returns, sun oil exports next
6% crop year (2022/23) should rise 1.75 million tonnes thanks to delays in
crushing sunseed harvested in late 2021.
5%
Embargoes and sanctions will surely affect Russia’s crops too, and we
believe the drop in Russian sun oil exports in 2021/22 may be 1.0
4% million tonnes, 20% of the anticipated total. This would bring the total
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Black Sea losses of exports to an estimated 3.75 million tonnes in the
Ukraine Russia Combined current crop year, 2021/22.

Impact on world crop output and exports
Focusing on output losses in the Black Sea region alone, sun oil will be by far the worst-affected agricultural product (when expressed as a share of global production). World
exports this marketing year for both maize and barley will be reduced by over 10% and wheat by 7%, but sun oil exports may be reduced by 30%.
The damage caused by the war will linger into next year, with sun oil again worst affected, with exports possibly contracting between 5-10%.
Note that these figures take no account of the associated losses of production elsewhere in the world, with cutbacks in the application of fertilisers and chemicals, due to high
prices and reduced availability.
Impact of conflict on world output this year and next Impact of conflict on world exports this year and next
18% 35%
16%
30%
14%
% loss od world output

25%
% loss of world output
12%
10% 20%
8% 15%
6%
10%
4%
5%
2%
0% 0%
Barley Maize Sun Oil Wheat Barley Maize Sun Oil Wheat
2021/2022 2022/2023 2021/2022 2022/2023

Impact on Ukraine sugar beet output and Russian sugar consumption
Another crop facing great uncertainty is Ukrainian sugarbeet, which represents 4% of global sugarbeet production and 1% of world sugar output. For those farmers still on their
land, beet represents an extremely high-risk crop to plant. Unlike grains and sunflower, beets cannot be stored and, at the time of planting in April, it will be impossible for
farmers to know whether their local sugar factory will be operating at the time of harvest. Ukraine expects farmers to plant at least 50% of the planned spring area, with a
further 20% considered possible, while the remaining 30% is not expected to be planted. Even this may prove optimistic, largely because of a lack of inputs such as diesel,
which will constrain plantings. In Russia, however, there is an incentive for farmers to grow crops that can be sold locally or in Central Asia, and sugar falls into this category. As
for Russian sugar consumption, severe sanctions are sending the country into a deep recession. Normally this would be associated with a decline in consumption. However, in
Russia, this is not always the case. In 2014, when the Russian economy was hit by falling world oil prices, per capita sugar consumption rose slightly as people turned to making
alcohol and jams at home, increasing their demand for sugar.
Potential impact on Ukraine sugar beet area Russia consumption per capita vs. GDP per capita
350 18,000 45
16,000 40
300
kg/capita, white value

14,000 35
250
12,000 30
'000 hectares
200 ? 10,000 25
$/capita
20%
8,000 20
150
6,000 15
100
4,000 10
50%
50 2,000 5
0 - 0
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: LMC International, part of GlobalData Consumption per capita Nominal GDP per capita 67
MENA region, Turkey, and India could suffer shortages
The diagrams below highlight where problems are most acute in terms of global reliance on Black Sea supplies:
• The escalating humanitarian crisis affecting Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and other countries in the MENA region is a direct result of their dependence on wheat imports
from Russia and Ukraine and flour imports from Turkey (produced from Black Sea wheat), plus the lack of infrastructure after years of civil disruptions.
• Several countries have introduced ration card schemes to combat shortages, but higher wheat prices reduce the volumes that can be purchased, so there is less food
available per capita. Added to this, high fuel costs are inflating food prices even further.
• India has also come to rely on the Black Sea for significant volumes of sunflower oil and substituting palm oil will be very difficult because of the export controls put in place
in Indonesia to preserve domestic cooking oil supplies, and latterly the subsequent rise in Indonesian export taxes, which tend to further inflate world prices levels..
Destinations of Ukraine wheat Destinations of Russian wheat Destinations of Ukraine sunflower oil Destinations of Russian sunflower oil
exports exports exports exports
ROW ROW ROW
14% ROW
EU MENA 9% 16%
29% MENA
Thailand 3% 33% India
MENA 29%
4% MENA 31% Belarus
13% 3%
Philippines 42% Kazakhstan
4% 4%
Pakistan Vietnam
4% 3% Uzbekistan
Nigeria China 6%
Turkey 17%
6% 3%
Banglades Sudan Turkey Turkey
EU India
h 4% 18% 18%
Indonesia 4% EU 8%
8% China
15% Bangladesh 30% 16%
6%

Crop choices should favor less fertilizer-intensive crops
Russia accounts for 23% of the global ammonia export market, 14% of urea, 21% for potash and 10% of phosphates exports. With the Russian export freeze, these supplies will
dwindle, while uncertain natural gas markets will limit the ability of other fertilizer producers to expand. Russia supplies about one-third of Europe's natural gas, the main
feedstock to produce nitrogen fertilizers. Nitrogen fertilizers have experienced staggering price rises on top of already historically high levels. With fertilizer supplies at a
premium, we expect farmers this spring and autumn to swing towards crops requiring lower fertilizer, such as sunflower and wheat, while sugar beet plantings look very
exposed, particularly considering the weaker price rises it has had (see earlier slide). With lower fertilizer applications, yields will suffer most in corn and grains, supporting
prices throughout the next crop season, even if a resolution is found in Ukraine.
Monthly indices of fertilizer prices, EU and US Gulf EU average estimated fertilizer costs, by crop
400 300
Fertiliser Prices, Indexed (2018=100)
350
250
€ per hectare, average 2018-2020

300
200
250
200 150
150
100
100
50
50
0 0
Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Sunflower Barley Common Corn/Maize Rapeseed Sugarbeet
wheat
DAP Potassium chloride Urea, E. Europe, bulk

Food and processing companies with exposure to Ukraine and Russia
• In the last decade, many multinational food and agricultural processing companies have limited their exposure in Russia and Ukraine because of
the perceived difficulties of doing business in those countries. However, several agri-businesses have facilities in processing, trading and terminals
in Ukraine and Russia, almost all of which have suspended activities in the past few weeks, in addition to the many consumer food companies
who have announced suspensions of their sales in Russia.
• Among agriculture processing companies, these include the following:
• Despite the disruption these events will bring to local operations, we should keep in mind that most agri-businesses typically benefit when prices
rise – and that this applies to all of their activities worldwide, whereas only a fraction of their global operations are being disrupted.

Share price strength and weakness
The benefits to agri-businesses of general price rises are highlighted by ADM and Bunge in this diagram (despite both having facilities in Ukraine). Yara’s shares indicate that
the benefits for fertiliser producers from price rises are less clear cut, while ABF (owners of Kingsmill bakers and Jordan’s cereals) shows the risk of exposure to high priced raw
materials.
Share prices, indexed Jan-22 = 100

24-Feb-2022
120 Invasion begins
115
110
105
ADM
100 Assoc. British Foods
95 Bunge
Yara
90
85
80
75
3-Jan-2022 13-Jan-2022 23-Jan-2022 2-Feb-2022 12-Feb-2022 22-Feb-2022 4-Mar-2022 14-Mar-2022

Impact by Sector
Apparel
Apparel
The apparel industry will experience global ramifications impacting supply and demand from the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Increasing commodity prices and sanctions will hit the pockets of both brands and consumers
250
200 200
200
150 150
150
100 100
100
50 50 50
0
0 0
Feb-21 May-21 Aug-21 Nov-21 Feb-22
Positive News Negative News Positive Score Negative Score INDICES
50.00 50
Equity 2.2% 5.2% -14.0%
Jobs -3.4% -6.8% -19.3%
25.00 25
M&A - 111.1% 0.0%
- 0 SENTIMENTS
News - 11.6% 4.8%
-25
Filings - - 11.4%
(25.00)
(50.00) -50
Jan-21 Oct-21 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021
Source: GlobalData
Apparel: impact assessment
The apparel industry will experience global ramifications impacting supply and demand from the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Increasing commodity prices and sanctions will hit the pockets of both brands and consumers
▪ The apparel industry will be heavily impacted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict due to ▪ The rising price of crude oil could have a significant impact on material prices,
the exacerbation of existing inflation and supply chain issues from the COVID-19 particularly for polyester and nylon which derive from petroleum. This will
pandemic, particularly within countries that are directly engaged in the crisis. disproportionately affect value and mass market brands who are more reliant on
these materials, however large-scale effects can be mitigated through the ongoing
▪ Russia was the 10th largest apparel market in 2021, making $47.8 billion, while push to use organic and recycled textiles.
Ukraine was only worth $3.5 billion in the same period. Global brands with strong
trade in Russia must prepare for a sharp downturn in regional sales, and many have ▪ While neither Russia nor Ukraine are major manufacturing markets, neighboring
made the decision to cease trade in Russia and Ukraine amidst operational countries such as Romania and Turkey are large exporters of apparel and could
challenges, with some pledging to donate money and clothing. experience knock on effects. Ukraine is a large exporter of certain textiles including
down, and though this can still be sourced from other regions like China and the
▪ Brands who have withdrawn from the Russian market must brace for the impact on EU, this could cause production delays as those markets adjust to the increased
sales, which could become a long-term issue now some Russian government demand.
officials have proposed a 10-year ban on western companies who do not return to
trading in Russia by May 2022. Sanctions impact
Commodity price impact ▪ Significant sanctions imposed on Russia will directly impact apparel trade,
particularly for native brands that rely on the country’s economy, with many
▪ Shockwaves will be felt across the world as oil and gas prices have risen significantly already struggling after the ruble’s devaluation. Consumers in Russia will be hit
as a result of this conflict, with many governments planning to phase out Russian hard with a sudden rise in the cost of living, and most will divert spending away
supplies. Consumers' discretionary spend has already been hit hard, with from apparel purchases.
inflationary pressures filtering in from late 2021, particularly in Europe and North
America. Spend on apparel is squeezed as priorities are on more essential goods, ▪ The EU had previously excluded luxury goods from its sanctions, likely to protect its
and the uncertainty of these additional price implications could deter consumers vital trade with wealthy Russians. However, most of the key luxury players including
even more from making unnecessary apparel purchases. LVMH, Kering, and Chanel have withdrawn sales from Russia, so the sanction
exception was largely futile and has now been initiated. Chanel has now taken this
one step further, by screening purchases from unfamiliar customers to ensure the
products will not be taken across the Russian border. 74
Source: GlobalData. Updated April 7, 2022
LPP is currently at most risk among the top global apparel companies after suspending transactions on its Russian website, but its stores remain open
Most global apparel retailers have already suspended operations in Russia, with the few remaining likely to stay unless sanctions disrupt supply chains further
Total apparel retail Russia & Ukraine sales

Rank Retailer group Main brands sales in Russia & as % of global apparel Current trading position in Russia
Ukraine EUR M, 2020 retail sales, 2020
1 Inditex SA Zara, Berksha, Massimo Dutti 1,272.0 6.0% Suspended all Russian operations
2 Hennes & Mauritz AB H&M, COS, Monki 808.6 4.2% Suspended all Russian operations
3 Nike, Inc. Nike, Converse 485.7 3.0% Suspended all Russian operations
4 LPP SA Reserved 302.5 22.3% Suspended Russian website
5 adidas Group Adidas, Reebok* 274.0 9.4% Suspended all Russian operations
6 Calzedonia SpA Calzedonia, Intimissimi, Tezenis 244.8 11.2% No change reported
7 Otto Group Otto, Bonprix 211.4 4.8% No change reported
8 Fast Retailing Co Ltd Uniqlo, GU, Theory 181.4 1.0% Suspended all Russian operations
9 New Yorker Group New Yorker 170.1 11.4% No change reported
10 LVMH SE Louis Vuitton, Dior, Fendi 164.3 2.0% Suspended all Russian operations
11 ASOS Plc ASOS 157.4 4.0% Suspended all Russian operations
12 Punto Fa SL Mango 120.0 6.1% Suspended all Russian operations
13 VF Corporation Vans, The North Face, Timberland 102.5 3.4% Suspended Russian websites
14 Puma SE Puma 98.9 8.9% Suspended all Russian operations
15 Kering SA Gucci, Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta 95.0 1.6% Suspended all Russian operations
16 Marks & Spencer PLC Marks & Spencer 93.3 2.4% Suspended shipments but still selling
17 The Gap, Inc. Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic 92.6 0.8% No change reported
18 La Redoute SA La Redoute 91.4 14.9% No change reported
19 Decathlon Group Decathlon 89.0 2.4% Suspended all Russian operations
20 PVH Corporation Tommy Hilfiger, Calvin Klein 81.9 2.4% Suspended all Russian operations
Source: GlobalData Retail IC. Apparel includes clothing, footwear and accessories. Sales above are retail sales only via the retailer’s own stores and websites, so excludes any wholesale. Note: Russia and Ukraine combined account for 2.6% 75
of the global apparel market. Retailer groups have been assessed based on their sales mix for Russia and Ukraine versus this global sales mix. * adidas Group sold Reebok in Q3 2021. Updated 7 April 2022
The Russia-Ukraine conflict is expected to wipe $18.8 billion off the Russian apparel market in 2022, which will remain below the pre-conflict forecast
until 2025
Russia apparel forecast revision

(in $B)
60 -37.2%
50
40
30
20
10
0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Pre-conflict Revised
Source: GlobalData. Apparel includes clothing, footwear and accessories. 76

While both Russia and Ukraine are dominated by native apparel retailers, most of the top global players have withdrawn their operations
This will have a significant impact on both markets’ share of the European apparel market, where Russia currently ranks 5 th largest
Russia’s top apparel retailers by market share (%), 2020

5.5%
Share of European apparel market (%), 2021
3.3%
Ukraine, 0.7%
1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
1.3% 1.2%
0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5%
Germany, 15.9%
Switzerland, 2.8%
Poland, 3.2% Italy, 13.3%

Ukraine’s top apparel retailers by market share (%), 2020
3.2%
Netherlands, 4.1%
2.4%
2.2%
Turkey, 4.4% 2.0%
UK, 11.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Spain, 7.1% 1.4% 1.3%
1.1%
0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8%
Russia, 9.1% France, 9.7%
Source: GlobalData Retail IC. Apparel includes clothing, footwear and accessories. Sales above are retail sales only via the retailer’s own stores and websites, so excludes any wholesale. 77
Impact by Sector
Automotive
Automotive: impact assessment
A wide-ranging impact—almost entirely and significantly negative—will be felt, with focus heavily concentrated on the Russian automotive sector
Revenue outlook Supply chain & demand disruption

▪ The most exposed global OEMs in Russia are Renault-Nissan, Hyundai-Kia and VW ▪ Within Russia and Ukraine expectations are that the effects of the crisis will be larger
Group. 2021 light vehicle production volumes for the three groups were 580k, 397k than the global financial crisis with potential to be more severe and enduring.
and 173k units, respectively.
▪ Russia and Ukraine hold significant reserves of metals such as cobalt, nickel,
▪ A contraction in sales in Russia in particular, but also now spreading to other platinum and palladium. Although for the prior commodities – save for palladium, at
markets, would see significant revenue losses for the automotive sector. At an 40% world mined supply – neither are the world’s foremost suppliers, prices will be
assumed average global car price of $30k, losses caused through reduced sales impacted and could impact electric vehicle batteries. PGMs are a substantial cost
volume – see following slides – could approach $100bn in 2022 alone. component of catalytic converters and significant shift here could accelerate the
▪ With China so far not directly drawn to criticize Russia’s actions there could be narrowing of the cost gap between ICE vehicles and EVs. Finally, Ukraine is a major
opportunity for Chinese OEMs who have made recent gains thanks to an source of neon gas used in lasers for chipmaking bringing another potential
undersupplied market, doubling market share to 7% in 2021. They are well headwind for semiconductor supplies.
placed to substitute for withdrawing Western brands. Other OEMs choosing to
remain active in Russia may also benefit from improved share, though in a vastly Sanctions impact
reduced market. ▪ Sanctions will create major and simultaneous demand- and supply-side shocks in
Russia:
Energy price impact ▪ The imposition of harsh sanctions has caused a collapse in the rouble, forcing
monetary policy action and likely rapid onset of inflation. International seizure of
▪ Within Russia, higher energy prices could sometimes be seen as a positive, but it is
Russian central bank assets look likely to limit mitigating action by the bank.
unclear what mechanisms could be employed to lever these benefits. Historically,
Consumer confidence will likely collapse, hitting car demand.
high oil prices have coincided with strong car markets in Russia but, with sanctions
hitting supply lines and consumers, this time is likely to be different. The revenue- ▪ The blocking of SWIFT banking access means parts procurement will be
boosting impact of high oil and gas prices will be blunted, and likely overwhelmed. destabilized and impact production. Some OEMs – such as Volvo, GM and JLR –
are already pulling out of vehicle supply directly into Russia. BMW and Ford have
▪ Outside of Russia, an oil price shock alongside already an established inflationary
suspended activity.
spike poses a global risk to consumer spending and, therefore, new car demand.
▪ Russia also looks likely to be subjected to an intensification of the recent global
semiconductor shortage as exports to the country are sanctioned.
79
Source: GlobalData
Automotive
Share prices hit during immediate reaction to the crisis
Russian market is the most exposed

200
200 200
150 150
150
100 100
100
50 50
50
0 0
0 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 Feb-21 May-21 Aug-21 Nov-21 Feb-22
Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22
Positive News Negative News Positive Score Negative Score
50.00 50 INDICES
Equity 1.0% 3.9% -16.4%
25.00 25
Jobs 0.5% 1.4% 1.6%
M&A - -15.3% -24.2%
- 0
SENTIMENTS
News - -8.3% -13.4%
(25.00) -25
Filings - - 10.5%
(50.00)
-50
Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22
Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021
Source: GlobalData
Automotive: Light Vehicle sales forecast update in Russia and Ukraine
Latest forecasts suggest downturn at least as bad as the global financial crisis, but from a lower base, resulting in significantly smaller markets
Russia light vehicle sales forecast revision Ukraine light vehicle sales forecast revision
3,000,000 300,000
-60% -84%
2,500,000 250,000
2,000,000 200,000
1,500,000 150,000
1,000,000 100,000
500,000 50,000
0 0
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Pre-conflict Revised Pre-conflict Revised
Finalised March adjustment sees a more-than halving of the vehicle There will be an highly negative impact on the Ukrainian market for
market in Russia. cars and Light Commercial Vehicles.
▪ Strongly negative factors include: cessation of a majority of ▪ Sales in the March-June period assumed to be mostly completing
domestic Russian vehicle production in the short term; a orders from stock and some tail-end sales – low numbers
voluntary halt to numerous vehicle brands’ exports to Russia; ▪ The forecast requires some form of second half improvement in
bans on higher-value exports to Russia (e.g. by the EU and US), the ability of the market to operate at a low and perhaps
the fast-growing impact of sanctions on the consumer. regionally limited level, but it will remain in a fragile emergency
▪ Projections for vehicle sales in 2022 in Russia will be lower than state with very little supply of new vehicles.
any other year since 1996.
Source: GlobalData
Automotive: Global Light Vehicle production forecast
Global Light Vehicle production, March update Broad-based decline in output, but non-conflict factors still weigh heavily
Reduction in expected vehicle production from End-Jan forecast
Global vehicle production impact

▪ European output heavily impacted by Ukraine conflict, though pre-
100 3.2
Forecast cut: existing supply issues, e.g. semiconductors, are also still relevant. Drastic
Global Light Vehicle Production (millions)
Jan 22 vs Mar 22 update cuts to the Russian demand outlook feed through to production directly.
3.6
▪ Forecast reduction in China primarily related to impact of hard lockdowns
90 aimed at COVID infection control, though some local demand reduction is
3.5 also expected from elevated food and energy prices.
▪ Lingering supply issues in the US have been compounded by record new
80
vehicle prices and inflationary concerns for the consumer.
Reduction in expected 2022 vehicle production from

January 2022 forecast, by major region (units)
70
Europe
China
60
North America
Asia ex China
50
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 South America
LV Production Reduction -2,000,000 -1,500,000 -1,000,000 -500,000 0
Source: GlobalData
Automotive: Renault-Nissan, Hyundai-Kia, and VW Group most exposed global OEMs
Light vehicle manufacturing exposure through manufacturing footprint Capacity and number of facilities in Russia and Ukraine in 2022 by manufacturer
Light vehicle sales derived from Ukraine and Russia in 2021
100% 12,000,000 1,800,000 7

Share of sales derived from Ukraine and Russia
1,600,000
Light vehicle manufacturing capacity

90%
6
10,000,000
80% 1,400,000
# of manufacturing plants
Global light vehicle sales 2021
5
70% 1,200,000
8,000,000
1,000,000 4
60%
50% 6,000,000 800,000 3
40%
600,000
2
4,000,000 400,000
30%
1
200,000
20%
2,000,000
0 0
10%
VW
RNM
GAZ
Sollers
GWM
Other
Avtotor
Hyundai-Kia
Daimler
ZAZ
Toyota
Zetta
Eurocar
PSA/Mitsubishi
0% 0
GAC
Gaz
Lifan
VW
Geely
CNH
Changan
Tata
Subaru
Honda
GM
Dongfeng
RNM
Chery
GWM
Mazda
BMW
Daimler
FAW
Ford
Isuzu
Hyundai-Kia
UAZ
Toyota
Suzuki
Stellantis
Most exposed global OEMs
% of global sales derived from Ukraine and Russia Global sales 2021 Capacity # of plants
OEM sales exposure to the crisis

Automotive: tires
Impact on the tire industry less than automotive sector due to the importance of replacement tire sales
Russia light vehicle tire sales forecast revision Ukraine light vehicle tire sales forecast revision Tire capacity:
• Nokian is the largest tire producer in
Russia and the most exposed, using its
50 10
-26% -46% Russian facility (along with a smaller plant
45 9 in Finland) to service the EU market. It is
8 seeking to transfer some production lines
Millions
Millions
40 to Finland and the US.
7
35 • This is followed by Pirelli, whose Russian
6 capacity accounts for around 10% of its
30 5 global capacity.
• Michelin, Bridgestone, Continental and
25 4 Yokohama also have plants, but these are
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
relatively small, all for light vehicle tyres
and mainly for the local market. All three
Pre-conflict Revised Pre-conflict Revised companies have now suspended
production at their plants.
• Russia and Ukraine are relatively small players on the global market accounting for 3% of global tire sales. Tire demand is • Nizhnekamskshina is the largest Russian
dominated by the replacement tire market (Russia 80%, Ukraine 98%). As long as people keep driving, this is more resilient manufacturer.
to a crisis than tire sales for new vehicles. • There is one tire manufacturer in Ukraine
• The Russia market is interconnected with the European market through trade, both of tires and raw materials. Rosava, with capacity in the order of 6
• Around 40% of Russian tire production is for export, with half destined for the EU. For light vehicle tires this is from mn units.
multinationals, most of whom have suspended exports. For trucks, around 0.5 million truck tires are exported to the EU per
annum. These are all from Russian tyre manufacturers. This has increased in recent years as anti-dumping duties have been
placed on Chinese truck tires entering the EU market (7% of EU imports).
• Russia is an important supplier of synthetic rubber and carbon black to the European market. With exports ceasing, this has
led to the short term closure of some European tire plants.
Source: GlobalData
Automotive: medium & heavy truck forecast reductions in Russia and Ukraine
Latest forecasts indicate cliff resulting from sanctions hitting sales and output from Q2’22 after significant YoY growth through Jan-Feb
Russia truck production forecast revision Ukraine truck production forecast revision
140,000 1,400
120,000 -37% 1,200 -74%

100,000 1,000
80,000 800
60,000 600
40,000 400
20,000 200
- -
2017
2024
2031
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2016
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2032
2033
Revised Pre-conflict Revised Pre-conflict
▪ Preliminary sales data indicate 29% YoY sales growth in Jan-Feb. ▪ The outlook for the Ukrainian heavy vehicle sector and market has
Overall Russian truck output in 2021 rose to its highest level since worsened dramatically and forecasts have been slashed; however, in
2017, with significant growth towards the end of the year which was the wider regional context, it is a small market.
attributed to a number of active construction projects and high ▪ AvtoKrAZ is the only complete cycle manufacturer of heavy trucks in
replacement demand resulting from an ageing parc. Ukraine. The KrAZ plant, based in Kremenchug, is estimated to have
▪ Production is expected to fall off a cliff from Q2 onwards as sanctions an annual capacity of around 1,500 units. Output is expected to be
bite, with KamAZ rumoured to be reducing its production plan by 40% decimated in 2022, with an uncertain outlook beyond the immediate
and its workforce by 15k (out of 35k). crisis.
Source: GlobalData
Global medium & heavy truck production forecast reduced from last quarter
Global Truck production interim update The Global Truck production forecast has been reduced by 1 percentage point
since last quarter. Global Truck output is projected to fall by 6%.
Reduction in anticipated vehicle output from Q4’21 forecast
Forecast risks:
3.6 ▪ Energy prices: Risk to already tight supplies, especially in countries whose
energy supply is highly dependent on Russia. Rising oil and gas prices are
3.5 Forecast cut: putting further upward pressure on inflation. Fuel price increases add to
Q4’21 vs Q1’22 prelim TCO for trucks, putting downward pressure on demand.
▪
Global Truck Production (millions)
Trade disruption: Russia’s position as a major supplier of energy, minerals

3.4
and other raw materials, means further risk of disruption to already
strained supply chains, with negative consequences for manufacturing
3.3 and industrial output (key drivers of freight).
▪ Investment: The combination of impending sanctions, inflation and oil
3.2 prices have sent the rouble and European investor confidence into a
tailspin. A collapse in investment – as happened across the CIS region in
2015 – would deal a sharp blow to capital goods such as trucks.
3.1
▪ Drivers: The European driver shortage is intensifying, with transport firms
based in Poland and Lithuania employing 100,000+ Ukrainian drivers.
3.0
▪ Fiscal boost potential: Rising defence spending and construction
investment are likely to act as stimuli to the European industrial sector –
2.9 potentially boosting truck demand.
Outlook:
2.8 ▪ The crisis has resulted in forecast reductions, primarily in Europe, though
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 the impending macro shock is likely to be blunted by a reservoir of unmet
demand, expressed in long order backlogs and lead times for trucks.
Truck Production Reduction
Source: GlobalData
Impact by Sector
Banking, Payments, & Wealth Management

Banking & payments
Share prices in banking sector were hit hard by uncertainty over the growth outlook and sanctions

250
200 200
200
150 150
150
100 100
100
50 50 50
0
0 0
1-Feb-2021 1-May-2021 1-Aug-2021 1-Nov-2021 1-Feb-2022
50 INDICES
50.00
Equity 1.2% 8.2% -1.3%
25
Jobs -2.2% -1.7% 5.7%
25.00
M&A - -0.5% -32.0%
- 0
SENTIMENTS
News - 1.0% -1.9%
(25.00) -25
Filings - - 21.9%
(50.00)
-50
Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22
Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021
Source: GlobalData
Impact by Sector
Banking
Banking impact assessment
Most retail banks will be focused on evaluating second or third order consequences of the invasion to its operations
As cross-border operations of retail banks were discouraged following the 2008 GFC, negative impacts to the war will be localized with a few exceptions
Revenue predictions Supply chain and demand disruption
▪ The longer the conflict in Ukraine continues, the more consumer confidence will be ▪ Many Western financial institutions have limited exposure and presence in
suppressed but not see a dramatic fall. Cutbacks in consumer spending and affected markets, in part due to divestment driven by ESG policies in years
borrowing decisions will be temporarily reduced and delayed. preceding the conflict. But Credit Agricole, with a 100+ branch presence in
Ukraine, will face widespread closures, with infrastructure further degraded as
▪ Medium to long-term opportunities will present themselves in lending to the conflict intensifies.
renewable energy sector as policy makers, particularly in Europe, implement plans
to reduce their dependency on Russian energy imports. Energy price impact
Sanctions ▪ Rising energy prices will see banks promote inflation protection products, but also
focus digital money management capabilities on helping consumers anticipate
▪ Operational plasters and workarounds will be necessary to disable payment and mitigate economic disruptions. Small SMEs may be vulnerable to rapid price
mechanisms to Russia and to remove charges and fees on payments to Ukraine. changes.
In-app charity donations and other types of pledges and support will increase,
particularly as conditions are likely to get worse before they get better.
▪ Incumbents will be at heightened risk of cyber attacks—in particular, malware and

ransomware attacks, data wiping and theft, and Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS)
attacks—because of legacy tech vulnerability and the perceived 'size of prize' to
Russian cyber criminals.
▪ Customer demand to engage and show solidarity must be balanced against the risk
of a successfully coordinated cyber attack from Russian authorities, an event that
could result in a permanent loss of trust.
90
Source: GlobalData
Top 20 largest banks with highest exposure to Russia & Ukraine
Raiffeisen Bank(GER), Citibank (US) and UniCredit (ITA) largest foreign banks with operations likely to be affected.
Rank Bank Country Pre-tax profits Rank Bank Country Pre-tax profits
operations ($M) operations ($M)
1. Sberbank Rossii Russia 12,560.2 11. Promsvyazbank Russia 472.2
2. Alpha Bank Russia 1,654.1 12. Rosbank Russia 244.0
3. VTB Bank Russia 1,195.6 13. Russian Agricultural Bank Russia 238.0
4. Gazprombank Russia 1,085.0 14. Bank Rossiya Russia 216.7
5. PrivatBank Ukraine 900.8 15. Russian Regional Development Ukraine 192.1

Bank
6. Tinkoff Russia 749.8 16. Bank Saint Petersburg Russia 180.1
7. Otkritie Bank Russia 692.8 17. Citibank (Russia) Russia 158.5
8. PJSC Sovcombank Russia 647.1 18. UniCredit Bank Russia 145.9
9. Raiffeisen Bank Russia 643.3 19. Russian Standard Bank Russia 124.6
10. Credit Bank of Moscow Russia 500.2 20. State Savings Bank of Ukraine Ukraine 100.1
91
Source: Global Banking Performance Analytics, Global Retail Banking Analytics. Pre-tax profits in 2020
Banking forecasts
Revised 2022 forecasts for Ukrainian and Russian deposits –5.6% and 3.7% respectively.
Russia
Russia Retail deposits forecast revision
(in LCU Million) • The invasion and pursuing financial sanctions have led to an increased demand for cash
seen in the first two days as 111.3 billion rubles were withdrawn by individuals and
companies. However, the volume withdrawn is marginally lower than the bank run
triggered by Covid in March 2020.
• There has been no abnormal surge reported.
• Banks are continuing to support Visa and Master cards and have announced that these
cards would be valid within Russian boundaries till their date of expiry. Smooth transition
to Mir cards and uninterrupted access to contact free payments is expected to ease
depositors' anxiety.
• The Central bank has assured that it will support the banks and there is no liquidity issues
in the system
• Heightened economic uncertainty will increase preference for cash in the short term and
thus, deposits are expected to grow at a slow pace for 2022 (35,387,574 LCU Million).
Ukraine
Ukraine Retail deposits forecast revision • More than 2 million Ukrainians have sought refuge in neighboring countries and as the
(in LCU Million) shelling of the cities continues, more people are expected to cross borders. This could
increase the cash withdrawals at an accelerated pace.
• The Ukrainian central bank has advised its citizens to carry their money in form of
payment cards due to difficulties reported in exchanging the currency in foreign lands
• The central bank is supporting online transactions and other activities. However, there is a
limit on daily cash withdrawals. The permitted amount is UAH 100,000 per day.
• While these measures could curtail the outflows from the bank accounts, lack of inflows
for the displaced population is expected to lead to a decline in the overall balances
reported at the end of the year 2022 (763,523 LCU Million).
• According to the Central bank, few existing businesses have switched to manufacturing
defense goods after imposition of martial law. This is expected to ease the economic
fallout of the war and modest support to bank inflows
• Assuming that the war will end in 2022 and reconciliation efforts commence in the last
quarter of the year, the large-scale damage to key infrastructure would delay recovery.
92
Hence, cash deposits are projected to grow at a slower pace
Impact by Sector
Payments
Payments: impact assessment
Sanctions have quickly impacted the Russian payments market, while international ripples will be felt in Europe in the form of energy price rises
Retail banks will play a critical operational and strategic role in helping absorb the first-round adjustment costs
▪ Consumer confidence will take a hit, at least in areas not directly impacted by the ▪ Disruptions to international trade will hit the Russian consumer payments market
war. We will likely see consumers cutting down on spending in the near term due to hard, despite Chinese trade remaining open.
uncertainty.
▪ A larger geographic impact will be felt in terms of reduced oil and gas supply from
▪ In the Ukraine itself, impacts of open conflict on revenue will naturally be much Russia, which will squeeze already-stressed consumer finances in the West
higher, and initial estimates project a long-term conflict. (especially Europe) and constrain the ability of consumers to spend freely.
▪ The Russian market will become inaccessible to payments providers located in the Energy price impact
West, hitting businesses involved in international trade with Russia.
▪ Rising energy prices will stress consumer finances, likely causing consumers facing
Sanctions cash flow issues to turn to short-term lending, especially BNPL. This in turn may
lead to higher levels of consumer debt.
▪ Russia has been cut off from the interbank settlement system SWIFT, which will hit
international trade and foreign currency supplies in Russia, though China’s CIPS
system is still open as a lifeline to Russian trade.
▪ Russia is also reportedly moving to cryptocurrencies to maintain international trade,

though the inherent volatility of these currencies make them unreliable and risky
compared with fiat currencies.
▪ Russian consumers have been affected by rapid inflation of the ruble, which hit a
10-year low against the US dollar on March 3, 2022. This will make Russian
consumers likely to turn to cryptocurrencies also, as has been seen in other markets
hit by inflation such as Nigeria.
Payments: impact on payment transactions in Russia and Ukraine
Latest forecasts indicate sanctions to cut Russian payments growth prospects to almost nothing, while effects in Ukraine are even sharper in the short term
Russia payments value forecast revision (RUBbn) Ukraine payments value forecast revision (UAHbn)
▪ The conflict is projected to hit the Russian payments sector’s growth ▪ The Ukrainian market is expected to take a more significant hit in the
prospects – formerly quite strong – into negative growth rates I the immediate term due to the disruptive impact of the war on the
short term as sanctions bite. country’s population and commercial centres.
▪ Russia’s access to other means of payment and other trading partners
– most notably China – and its domestic card scheme Mir will soften
the blow somewhat.
▪ The figures above are also subject to inflationary pressure on the
rouble stemming from the conflict.
Source: GlobalData
Payments: impact assessment
The international card schemes have cut Russia off, but stand to lose a significant chunk of their global transaction value by doing so
With 10.5% of its global transactions by value in Russia and the Ukraine combined in 2022, Mastercard stands to lose the most among card schemes from the conflict.
Card schemes Card issuers

▪ Some of the major international card issuers headquartered in Europe have
▪ With the international card schemes Visa and Mastercard cutting Russia off from
significant exposure to the Russian and Ukrainian markets.
their systems, each stands to lose a significant chunk of their international
transaction value. ▪ Raifeissen Bank and Societe Generale are the two most-exposed banks by value of
transactions, with Raifeissen having over 20% of its 2020 transactions by value
▪ The schemes do not make revenue directly from card transactions, but from fees originating in the region.
paid to them by member card issuers. Thus, the direct impact on these companies
will be somewhat cushioned by their position at one remove from the market itself.
Russia & Ukraine Russia & Ukraine

Total value of card Total value of card
Global transactions as % of total transactions as % of
Card scheme transactions in Russia & Card issuer transactions in Russia &
rank value of global total value of global
Ukraine ($M), 2020 Ukraine ($M), 2020
transactions, 2020 transactions, 2020
1 Visa 528,480 5.2% Citibank 591,022 0.5%
Raiffeisen Bank 107,783 21.6%

2 Mastercard 617,385 10.5%
Societe Generale Group 108,472 12.7%
3 American 2,795 0.3% UniCredit Bank 118,383 4.2%

Express
BNP Paribas 191,542 2.6%
Credit Agricole 196,350 0.5%
Source: GlobalData’s Payment Card Analytics. Transaction value figures above cover all consumer and commercial card transactions (ATM and POS, online and proximity) using debit, credit, and charge cards. Figures are counted based on 96
country of card issue – thus the figures above show transaction values on Russian and Ukrainian-issued cards.
Impact by Sector
Wealth Management
Wealth management impact assessment
Global wealth managers will be little impacted by the invasion; sanctioned banks' wealth activity will largely cease with access to offshore investments frozen
Branches of even global wealth managers in key offshore booking centers will undergo significant disruption and intense scrutiny due to the evolving sanctions regime
Revenue predictions Divestment
▪ A protracted war will mean continued uncertainty and negative sentiment in the ▪ The invasion has caused an institutional investor exodus from Russian assets.
financial markets, and this will negatively impact global wealth manager AUM and Norway’s sovereign wealth fund—the world’s largest—announced it was fully divesting
the fees contingent upon performance. from Russian assets, which accounted for $2.83 billion in bonds and shares at the end
of 2021. Even smaller institutional investors such as Australia’s NSW Generations Fund
▪ Most HNW investors are equally exposed to market gyrations, with relatively even and pension funds such as Colorado’s Public Employees Retirement Association have
allocations into equities (23.5% globally according to our 2021 Wealth Managers also announced divestments.
Survey) across the various regions. However, it is likely that European banks with
greater exposure to the regional HNW investor base will suffer the most due to ▪ Asset managers with investments in the region will suffer a collapse in asset values,
their proximity to the conflict. with certain funds focused on Russia already prohibited by regulators from
selling additional units. Some funds will likely be wound up by asset managers.
Sanctions
▪ Wealth manager's ESG funds and screeners will need to adapt to open war in a
▪ Wealth managers in Russia and those serving Russians from key offshore booking developed market. Key funds in Europe have reconsidered blanket defense sector bans
centers will need to closely monitor and audit their client base. Banks in Cyprus, in light of the invasion, notably six funds at SEB.
Switzerland, and the UK (among other booking centers traditionally popular with
Russian offshore investors) will need continual AML/KYC checks as the sanction Commodities price impact
list expands.
▪ With the advent of open war, the markets have begun to price in disruption to key
▪ Significant reputational and regulatory damage can be expected for any bank, commodities produced by Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus.
even inadvertently, dealing with proscribed entities during the crisis.
▪ Sharply higher commodities prices due to the disruption of global agricultural exports,
▪ Russian banks sanctioned by the US, UK, and EU will effectively be frozen out of base metals, and possibly oil and gas will also be felt across the portfolios of HNW
their offshore investment vehicles or funds; limiting their ability to manage investors. Inflation-pessimistic North American investors are the most prepared for
client money. soaring commodity prices, with 15.5% of the investment portfolio in commodities
according to our 2021 Wealth Managers Survey but European investors are least
prepared , with just 12.9%.
Impact by Sector
Construction
Construction
Construction in Ukraine to be hit hard, and Russia too will suffer

250
200 200
200
150 150
150
100 100
100
50 50 50
0
0 0
Feb/21 May/21 Aug/21 Nov/21 Feb/22
50 INDICES
50.00
Equity -1.3% 5.0% -3.5%
25
Jobs -1.1% -1.1% 10.4%
25.00
M&A - -3.3% -26.5%
- 0
SENTIMENTS
News - 1.9% 0.1%
(25.00) -25
Filings - - 12.0%
(50.00)
-50
Jan-21 Oct-21
Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021
Source: GlobalData
Construction: impact assessment
Construction in Ukraine will be hit hard, and Russia will suffer. A wider impact will be felt via depressed investor confidence and high materials prices
Steel supplies, particularly to the EU, will be disrupted
▪ The outlook for construction in Ukraine is bleak, with major projects currently ▪ Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already heavily impacted global commodities
underway likely to be stalled, and new investment plans put on hold, while the markets and, even if the military conflict proves short-lived, it will have
government’s attention and financial resources are redirected to the military far-reaching consequences for the construction industry in the months to come
defensive efforts. Moreover, private investment will also be scaled back via the impact on steel, oil, and energy prices.
dramatically.
▪ Steel was among the most affected products in terms of soaring prices last
▪ Although the level of disruption to construction projects stemming directly from the year. The conflict in Ukraine is now expected to generate renewed pressure on
military invasion is limited when compared to that expected in Ukraine, investor steel prices. This reflects the likelihood of intense disruption in supplies from
confidence is set to deteriorate and there will be a continued withdrawal of foreign Ukraine, which is a key exporter of steel products and iron ore, with reports of
capital. The fall in the ruble will also compound challenges facing the industry in steel mills being shutdown and transport links and freight services coming to a
terms of the rising cost of key construction materials, and a scaling up of targeted halt.
financial sanctions could further impact investment.
▪ There is also the potential for disruption in the deliveries of steel from Russia,
Energy price impact owing to logistical challenges along with sanctions being ramped up and
restrictions being imposed on Russian banks in completing international financial
▪ In view of the likelihood of oil prices continuing to rise in the transactions. According to data from the European Steel Association, of the EU’s
short term, transportation costs will soar, impacting prices of materials delivered to 16.6 million tons of flat product imports in 2020, Russia accounted for 14% and
project sites. Higher crude prices will also impact oil derivatives, including bitumen, Ukraine for 8%. Of the 4.5 million tons of long products Russia was the leading
which will notably contribute to higher costs for roads projects. supplier, accounting for 19% of the total, and Ukraine supplied just over 7%.
▪ Costs of energy-intensive materials, such as bricks and tiles, are set to rise, and ▪ There will be significant disruption in the production and delivery of construction
producers of such products are likely to pass on costs to customers, which will feed equipment in Russia, with major equipment manufacturers—such as JCB,
into higher overall project costs. Caterpillar, and Hitachi—taking action that includes suspending operations in, and
deliveries to, Russia.

Impact by Sector
Consumer
Consumer
The consumer equity index began to dip on the day Ukraine was invaded, signaling challenges to come
The industry will suffer from further price increases and a squeeze on discretionary spending
250
200 200
200
150 150
150
100 100
100
50 50 50
0
0 0
50.00 50 INDICES
Equity 2.2% 1.9% -6.0%
25.00 25
Jobs -1.8% -2.7% 7.5%
M&A - -12.4% -20.0%
- 0
SENTIMENTS
News - 3.0% -0.7%
(25.00) -25
Filings - - 12.5%
(50.00)
-50
Jan-21 Oct-21
Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021
Source: GlobalData
Consumer: impact assessment
Price increases across the supply chain due to climbing inflation and disrupted trade flows are further squeezing disposable incomes and dampening COVID-19 recovery, while the
exodus of large FMCG firms from Russia continues
Revenue predictions Supply chain & demand disruption
▪ The Russo-Ukrainian war is heightening the inflation risks already catalyzed by the ▪ The global commodity market was already affected by surging demand
pandemic and adding to an increase in commodity prices, particularly those that both following the world’s recovery from the pandemic, but Russia’s invasion of
markets are key exporters of, such as wheat and edible oils, which will impact most Ukraine has caused prices of oil and gas to rise even further, which will
consumer sectors. Certain manufacturers, including Unilever Plc and Procter & Gamble, impact transportation costs across the supply chain. Proposed bans on
had already begun to pass price increases on to consumers before the crisis and Russian imports and Russia’s potential to restrict its supplies to Europe are
additional brands are likely to follow suit in the coming months. also evident, which would cause further disruption and price increases.
▪ The crisis risks impacting the recovery from the pandemic, with a further slowdown of ▪ Countries that rely on Ukraine and Russia’s key commodity exports
consumption being likely as consumers grapple with rising prices and squeezed (including wheat and corn) will also be impacted and may need to find
disposable incomes. Discretionary categories will feel the greatest impact first. alternative suppliers due to disrupted shipping in the Black Sea region and
the closure of Ukrainian ports as a result of Russia’s attack.
Sanctions
▪ Locally, several large consumer players including Carlsberg, Coca-Cola HBC,
▪ Russian consumers are already feeling the impact of economic sanctions imposed by Japan Tobacco, and Nestlé SA have suspended operations in Ukraine as the
the international community and the plunging ruble, raising the price of imported war continues.
goods. Companies withdrawing from Russia due to business complications caused by
the sanctions, as well as pressure from consumers, also continues to diminish ▪ Several large consumer players have also suspended operations in
consumer access to a range of products. Russia due to a challenging business environment and consumer pressure in
some cases. However, certain companies have announced a commitment to
▪ Several nations have closed airspace for Russian flights, while Russia has retaliated by continue to supply essential food and hygiene products to the market to
implementing the same bans over its airspace for these nations. While most consumer support consumer needs as far as possible.
goods (including food) are transported by sea, bans on waterways are also being
imposed on Russian-owned ships in markets including the UK and Canada. ▪ Businesses and consumers are also protesting Russia’s war on Ukraine by
boycotting Russian brands. The impact of this action alone is not thought to
be significant but certain retailers and brands have even begun to review
entire supply chains to eliminate components of Russian origin.
Consumer companies’ exposure to Russia and Ukraine
Some of the world's largest consumer trademark owners attribute a notable portion of sales to Russia and Ukraine and will be hard hit by sanctions and the ongoing crisis.
Several companies, including Carlsberg Group, have already halted operations in Ukraine
Source: GlobalData. ‘Trademark Owners 2020 Value’ covers retail channels for food companies, covers retail and foodservice channels for drinks companies. Value figures on the left chart are global and cover all consumer sectors. 105
Those of the top 20 global trademark owners with operations in Russia and Ukraine are shown on the bar charts to the right.
Consumer companies’ exposure to Russia and Ukraine
A sector-specific view reveals the extent of the world's largest consumer goods companies' various operations in the Russia and Ukraine markets, with PepsiCo and
Carlsberg having significant operations in the baby care and beverages categories, respectively
Value (M USD) of the top 20 global trademark owners, in Russia and Ukraine combined, split by sector:
Trademark Owners
Alcoholic Cosmetics and Non-Alcoholic
Baby Care Food Household Products OTC healthcare Pet Care
Beverages Toiletries Beverages
A-BInBev 3,108.1 - - - - .1 - -
ASAHI GROUP 572.4 - - - - .1 - -
Carlsberg Group 4,328.1 - - - - 436.3 - -
Coca-Cola - - - - - 3,452.2 - -
Danone Group - 413.6 - 1,337.2 - 19.3 - -
General Mills, Inc. - - - 9.9 - - - -
Groupe Lactalis SA - - - 527.9 - 1.0 - -
Grupo Bimbo, S.A.B. de C.V.
Heineken 3,800.2 - - - - 28.6 - -
Johnson & Johnson Services Inc - 87.2 74.2 - - - 108.7 -
Keurig Dr Pepper - - - - - - - -
L'Oreal S.A. - - 985.4 - - - - -
Mars, Incorporated - - - 2,023.1 - - - 1,955.0
Molson Coors 844.4 - - - - - - -
Mondelez International, Inc - - - 1,199.4 - - - -
Nestle - 477.1 - 1,386.6 - 1,183.9 - 591.2
PepsiCo - 143.6 - 3,347.2 - 3,424.1 - -
Procter & Gamble - 394.8 1,192.4 - 617.8 - - -
The Kraft Heinz Company - 95.6 - 289.8 - 116.9 - -
Unilever - - 796.1 776.0 135.8 880.1 - -
Source: GlobalData. ‘Trademark Owners 2020 Value’ covers retail channels for food companies, covers retail and foodservice channels for drinks companies 106
The value sales of the top 20 global trademark owners in Russia and Ukraine are shown on the above table.
Consumer sector impact assessment
All consumer sectors are anticipated to decline this year in Russia compared with previous forecasts, while the impact of the crisis on sectors at a global level is
more subdued
Russia
% reduction % reduction A return to 2021 ▪ All consumer sectors are anticipated to experience >5%
Geography Sectors
2022* 2023* levels or greater volume decline (compared with previous forecasts) in
Russia this year following the invasion and subsequent
Baby Care -5.5% -6.7% 2024 economic sanctions impacting purchasing power in the
Cosmetics and Toiletries -10.0% -10.7% 2025 market.
▪ Cosmetics & Toiletries will see the greatest volume
Food -5.9% -5.6% 2024 decline (10%) this year, recuperating its 2021 levels only
Household Products -7.5% -8.0% 2024
in 2025. Industry players including LVMH, Henkel have
Russia already pulled out of the market though the latter will
Pet Care -8.9% -9.4% 2024 continue to provide ‘essentials’ to consumers.
Tobacco and Tobacco Products -6.7% -7.3% +2026 ▪ Pet Care, Alcoholic Beverages, and Non-Alcoholic
Beverages are also anticipated to be hard hit in Russia
Alcoholic Beverages - ex on-trade -8.7% -6.7% 2025 and the beverages industry will not recover in the next
Non-Alcoholic Beverages - ex. on- two years.
-8.3% -5.7% 2025
trade
Baby Care -0.1% -0.1% 2022 Global
▪ All sectors anticipated to grow before the crisis will
Cosmetics and Toiletries -0.4% -0.4% 2022 continue to grow this year but at a slightly reduced
Food 0.0% 0.0% 2022 pace. Most consumer sectors will experience only
marginal declines or flat volume growth (compared with
Household Products -0.1% -0.1% 2022
previous forecasts) globally this year.
Global – ex. Ukraine ▪ The exodus of foreign companies from Russia has not
Pet Care -0.1% -0.1% 2022
significantly dented the global consumer industry yet,
Tobacco and Tobacco Products -0.2% -0.2% 2022
but rising inflation and the subsequent hike in
Alcoholic Beverages - ex on-trade -0.5% -0.4% 2022 commodity prices, as well as supply chain complications
Non-Alcoholic Beverages - ex. on- could further impact the industry negatively in the
-0.3% -0.1% 2022 coming months.
trade
107
Source: GlobalData. Percentages are the difference between GlobalData’s volume figures before the crisis and GlobalData’s latest forecasts. *Percentage reduction March vs. February (pre-invasion) forecast: March
forecast accounts for both invasion effects in Russia and significant inflation in the global economy. Global figures exclude Ukraine.
Impact by Sector
Foodservice
Foodservice
The foodservice equity index began to dip on the day Ukraine was invaded though a significant impact on other indicators is yet to be seen
The industry will suffer from further price increases and a squeeze on discretionary spending
250
200 200
200
150 150
150
100 100
100
50 50 50
0
0 0
50 INDICES
50.00
Equity 1.4% 1.6% -11.1%
25 Jobs -0.8% -1.8% -9.7%
25.00
M&A - -17.6% -38.2%
0
-
SENTIMENTS
-25
News - 3.0% 2.5%
(25.00)
Filings - - 1.8%
(50.00) -50
Jan-21 Oct-21 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021
Source: GlobalData
Foodservice: impact assessment
Large foodservice and beverage brands have been forced to react to growing pressures to abandon their operations in Russia
▪ Another raw resource affected by the invasion of Ukraine is metal nickel and its ▪ Internationally, there is growing concern over the crisis that could be created by
price has been volatile over the past weeks, as the metal primarily comes from the disruption in wheat and fertilizer production in Russia and Ukraine and
Russia. This volatility will be felt in the foodservice industry, as the metal is an foodservice operators may need to navigate potential future shortages, especially
important component of stainless steel, used in food preparation, kitchen in bakery and cereals categories
surfaces, and even dishwashers. Companies keeping track of this predict the price
will rise by 7% in Q2 if the conflict continues. ▪ As Ukraine and Russia produce most of the world’s supply of sunflower oil and
the war is causing disruption to exports and supply chains, in the UK, one of the
▪ Additionally, breweries will also be affected which will result in a price increase in biggest bottlers of sunflower oil has announced it has a few weeks’ supply left.
alcoholic drinks for the off- and on-trade. Kegs, tanks, piping, fittings, and spare This is also impacting food manufacturers which have started changing their
parts are all made of stainless steel, and some components need to be replaced recipes, by replacing sunflower oil with either canola oil (more expensive which
and maintained regularly. will result in a price increase) or palm oil (which has sustainability issues).
Sanctions ▪ Global beverage brands Coca-Cola and PepsiCo have also now announced they
will cease trading in Russia meaning that foodservice outlets will now have to find
▪ According to Seafood Source, Russia accounts for over 40 percent of the world’s alternative menu items for their products
whitefish production, including 60 percent of the Alaskan pollock, 30 percent of
the Atlantic cod supply, and 25 percent of the haddock. Following the recent ▪ The threat of cyber-attacks on western foodservice chains that have now acted in
import tariffs on Russian seafood, countries dependent on these products will Russia could see dwindling confidence from consumers in using brands’ digital
face challenges regarding availability and price. services as the conflict continues.

Foodservice in Russia is expected to record declines in volume of up to 24% in 2022 which will subsequently impact the global foodservice trajectory
Russia
• As a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the consequential economic
2022 2023
Year back to or sanctions which are impacting purchasing and spending in the country, all
(% change vs (% change vs foodservice categories are predicted to witness significant volume declines in
Region Category greater than
February pre- February pre- 2022 when compared to previous forecasts.
2021 levels
invasion)* invasion)* • Baby Care and Food are expected to be hit the hardest with volume declines of
greater than 20% this year. Food will drop by 21%, especially with the
withdrawal of fast-food giants from the market (McDonald’s, Burger King and
Alcoholic Beverages -20.3% -22.6% 2025 KFC) and it will reach its 2021 level in 2025. However, Baby Care, while smaller
in volume, will be impacted the greatest with almost a quarter of its volume
Baby care -24% -24.1% >2026 disappearing in 2022. The category is forecasted to recover later than 2026.
Russia
• Alcoholic and Non-Alcoholic Beverages are also forecasted to lose around a fifth
of their volume in 2022 and will not recover until 2025 (Alcoholic) or 2026 (Non-
Food -21.4% -24.7% 2025 Alcoholic).
Global
Non-Alcoholic Beverages -19% -22.8% 2026
• Globally, all foodservice categories will be impacted by the invasion. Compared
with previous forecasts for 2022-2026, Alcoholic Beverages and Food will notice
Alcoholic Beverages -0.9% -1% 2022 declines of up to 1% in volume in 2022 as well as 2023. However, this will not
(excluding Ukraine)
hinder the two categories’ trajectories, and both will recover and surpass their
Baby Care -2.5% -2.5% 2022 2021 level.
Global
• Baby Care and Non-Alcoholic Beverages are forecasted to notice the biggest
Food -0.6% -0.8% 2022 drops, but, as with the previous two categories, this will not suppress their 2022
volume trail. However, due to rising inflation and disruptions to the supply
chains, the foodservice industry is expected to experience further declines by
Non-Alcoholic Beverages -4.3% -4.6% 2022
the end of the year.
111
Source: GlobalData. *Percentages are the difference between GlobalData’s volume figures before the crisis and GlobalData’s latest forecasts. *Percentage reduction March vs. February (pre-invasion) forecast: March forecast accounts for
both invasion effects in Russia and significant inflation in the global economy
US sanctions on Russian seafood are opening doors for local suppliers and distributors to fill in the gap
US Fish & Seafood Value ($M*, 2021) ▪ Following international bans on Russian seafood, including one
placed by U.S. President Joe Biden for imports to the U.S. in
7,787 March of 2022, the seafood and fish market in the US is
witnessing a mixed impact, as some foodservice operators and
distributors are faring better than others. A lot of it has to do
with how much seafood a business usually purchased from
Russia in the past.
▪ The out-of-home Fish & seafood market in the US was worth

574 $9.8bn in 2021, with more than $7bn coming from restaurants
282 226 116 63 34 11 alone, according to GlobalData.
Restaurant Accommodation Leisure Workplace Retail Pub, Club & Bar Mobile Operator Travel
▪ However, following the news of the ban on Russian seafood,
American foodservice operators claim the ban would not affect
US Fish & Seafood OBP Volume (M Kg, 2021) them too much. Following the Russian invasion of Crimea in
2014, and the subsequent sanctions by the Obama
1,055 administration, Kremlin retaliated and responded with bans on
US seafood imports. This influenced American business owners
to re-think their strategies and use either local or regional fish
suppliers. This also suggests that the new bans will not have a
significant impact on the US seafood industry.
▪ Additionally, according to Gordon Food Service, a Michigan

76.27
operator, companies sourcing crab from Russia were able to
38.86 33.25 16.08 7.91 4.37 1.6 quickly switch to local produce, suggesting that, even though
there is a gap in the market for pollock, crab, and other
Restaurant Accommodation Leisure Workplace Retail Pub, Club & Bar Mobile Operator Travel
seafood from Russia, local suppliers and distributors are ready
to step in.
Source: GlobalData Market Analyzer, accessed April 7, 2022; *Value $M using fixed rate 112
The UK seafood and fish industry will be drastically affected by sanctions on Russian whitefish, as well as by the spike in food prices and bills
UK Fish & Seafood Value ($M*, 2021) ▪ However, while the bans are not very impactful on the US, the
1,272
UK on-trade market is facing drastic effects. Forecasted to
make a slow recovery from the impact of the COVID-19
pandemic, the sanctions coupled with the recent raise in VAT,
energy bills, food prices, and labor costs, prove to be very
challenging for the industry.
▪ According to GlobalData, the UK fish & seafood market was

310 valued at $2.2bn in 2021 (this includes the cost and profit
153 150 operators). Unsurprisingly, the restaurant channel accounts for
85 74 23 15
a share of 58% of the value.
Restaurant Accommodation Workplace Leisure Pub, Club & Bar Retail Travel Mobile Operator
▪ On the 15th of March the UK announced it was applying
sanctions on Russian whitefish. However, the UK is heavily
UK Fish & Seafood OBP Volume (M Kg, 2021) reliant on imported whitefish, and it sourced almost $1bn
worth of whitefish in 2020. Moreover, according to the U.K.
148
public body Seafish, 48,000 metric tons of whitefish came
directly from Russia in 2020. In addition to this, a considerable
portion of Chinese whitefish imports into the country was also
of Russian origin, and according to Seafish, it is also likely that
some Norwegian, Polish, and German imports into the U.K.
market included Russian products.
39.08
16.43 16.41
9.63
▪ Seafish’s press release continued by saying that the product
7.68 2.51 1.59 has no obvious or quick substitute if it becomes unavailable to
UK business, and this can also impact supply. Furthermore, the
Restaurant Accommodation Workplace Leisure Pub, Club & Bar Retail Travel Mobile Operator
UK will be competing in the global market if the product
becomes available.
Source: GlobalData Market Analyzer, accessed April 7, 2022; *Value $M using fixed rate 113
Foodservice: latest updates
Foodservice operators are continuing to leave Russia or terminating their contracts with any Russian brands, as a result of the military invasion of Ukraine. Moreover, as the conflict
carries on, consumers are questioning the provenance of the products in their local restaurants, which has prompted foodservice wholesalers to investigate their supply chains for
any links to Russia or Belarus
Eataly Grubhub
• On the 30th of March, Eataly, the Italian specialty market and restaurant company, • On the 4th of March, Grubhub, an online food-ordering company part of Just Eat
became the latest foodservice provider announcing its departure from the Russian Takeaway.com, announced that it was ending its partnership with Yandex, a Russian
market. The company is ending its franchise agreement in Moscow, the only Eataly tech giant. Grubhub did not mention Ukraine or the invasion as a reason of
store operating in Russia, due to the military invasion of Ukraine. terminating its contract, however, the news came at a time when a significant
number of Western companies were leaving Russia and Russian firms were getting
• Nicola Ferinetti, Eataly Chief Executive Officer also added “during a moment of
backlash globally over the conflict in Ukraine.
escalating humanitarian crisis, our hearts are with the victims of this devastating
conflict. We as a company and as human beings unequivocally condemn the war in
Ukraine, and join the world in hoping for a peaceful resolution. As we continue to • The partnership between Grubhub and Yandex was for driverless robots meant to
monitor the situation and support the people of Ukraine, Eataly will be working deliver food on college campuses. The multiyear contract was agreed in July 2021
across all our locations in North America and EMEA, and network of suppliers to and it consisted in connecting Grubhub’s college campuses platform with Yandex’s
provide critical supplies, donations of food and other fundraising initiatives.” autonomous delivery robots.
• The food-ordering company also stated that it will be working with its campus
Wholesalers partners on finding alternative service options.
• According to The Grocer, foodservice wholesalers are investigating their supply
chains for any links to Russia or Belarus. This comes after on-trade customers have
been asking outlets if their products where sourced from the two countries or if the
energy they used is sourced from Russia. There have been questionnaires sent to
suppliers by at least three large foodservice wholesalers. The main questions
include whether they operate in Russia or its ally, if they use raw materials from
either, and if there are looming availability issues as a result.
Source: GlobalData; Image from Verdict Foodservice 114

Foodservice brands with a presence in Russia have noticed a significant drop in their share price caused by the invasion of Ukraine
▪ While the invasion of Ukraine shook the global

Weekly Share Price (indexed) economy, it caused financial markets to be
110 uncertain which in turn impacted share prices,
24/02/22 Invasion of especially of companies and brands doing
108 Ukraine begins business in Russia and Ukraine.
106 ▪ One of the most impacted is McDonald’s which

dropped 5.5% in share price between 19th and
104 26th of February. While food brands were quick
to show support for Ukraine and speak against
102 the invasion, McDonald’s remained quiet. This
in turn provoked a call to boycott the fast-food
100 giant. Hours after the news of backlash, the
golden arches brand announced it will seize
98 operation in Russia (either due to news of
boycotts or issues in the supply chain caused by
96 sanctions) and offer aid to those affected by the
war.
94
▪ Interestingly enough, RBI suffered the smallest
92 price share drop compared to the other brands
and it was witnessing a high growth in the week
90 starting 5th of March. While this might be due
to the millions of dollars committed to
Ukrainian refuges and free meals, RBI has been
strengthening its position globally through Tim
McDonald's RBI Starbucks Yum! Brands Domino's Pizza Horton partnerships and expansion plans
through acquisitions.
Source: Yahoo Finance, covers adjusted share price data from the 1st Jan to 6th Apr 2022 115
Foodservice
While Ukraine represents a small proportion of the global value for global foodservice brands operating in the country, Russia was seen as the next market targeted for further
expansion by McDonald’s, Yum! Brands and Starbucks.
Proportion of brand value coming from Russia

Global: Top 20 foodservice trademark owners in 2020 in 2020
(Value $ M)
McDonald's Corporation 79,417
Yum! Brands, Inc. 42,691
Restaurant Brands International 27,617
Starbucks Corporation 26,985
1.4% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
Domino's Pizza Inc. 14,782
Roark Capital Group 13,889
Doctor's Associates Inc. 13,186
CFA Properties, Inc 11,714
Dunkin' Brands Group, Inc. 10,659
The Wendy’s Company 8,883
Seven & I Holdings Co. 7,753 Brand value and proportion coming from
Darden Restaurants Inc. 7,060 Ukraine in 2020
JAB Holding Company 7,031
DineEquity Inc. 5,399
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. 5,384
Jack in the Box Inc. 4,509
Marriott International, Inc 3,874 0.06% 0.02% 0.002%
Papa John's International Inc. 3,863 Brands operating in Russia and
49.79 $M 8.95 $M 0.08 $M
Zensho Holdings Co., Ltd. 3,677 Ukraine
Lawson, Inc. 3,546 Brands operating in Russia
Source: GlobalData. ‘Trademark Owners 2020 Value’ covers brands present in all foodservice channels 116
Those of the top 20 global trademark owners with operations in Russia and Ukraine are shown on the maps to the right.
Impact by Sector
Healthcare
Healthcare
Ukraine faces complete collapse of organized healthcare services as both central governance reduces, and healthcare infrastructure is degraded through collateral damage.
Russian healthcare will quickly feel shortages of essential medical materials, followed by a gradual degradation of the standard of care

300
200 200
250
150 200 150
150
100 100
100
50 50
50
0
0 0
50.00 50 INDICES
Equity 0.0% 3.5% -3.3%
25.00 25
Jobs -2.4% -6.2% -6.7%
M&A - -7.0% -34.2%
- 0
SENTIMENTS
News - 1.0% 0.9%
(25.00) -25
Filings - - 14.3%
(50.00) -50
Jan-21 Oct-21 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021
Source: GlobalData
Healthcare: impact assessment
Russian healthcare is likely to soon feel the indirect effects of the war
Hospitals will feel quickly daily shortages of imported medical materials as sanctions and worsening economic conditions quickly bite
▪ Healthcare spending in Russia, before the war against Ukraine, amounted to ▪ Wartime may lead to increase demand for trauma services, but the extent of this
$101.6 billion (or RUB71,095 billion) based on prevailing exchange rates. will depend on how the conflict widens and the capacity of Russian and Belarus
military medical services to absorb combatant injuries.
▪ Increased costs of imported medical goods, rising inflation, and a collapse in the
Russian economy is likely to reduce healthcare spending by 25–40%, because of ▪ The quality of trauma care delivered will be affected by Russia's inability to access
rising direct and indirect costs. high-quality orthopedic devices, because of the sanctions and worsening
economy, leading to poorer outcomes for affected combatants.
▪ 36% of healthcare spending in Russia is in the private sector. While Russia will
have the capability to protect, to an extent, the public sector, its likely that private ▪ The ability of healthcare to deliver a quality service in the context of worsening
healthcare will be disproportionally affected, increasing revenue losses to the standards of care (in preventative medicine, diagnosis) may lead to increased
higher end of estimates. demands in treating patients with chronic and late diagnosed conditions.
Sanctions
▪ Sanctions will affect the ability of Russian healthcare providers to settle invoices
for supplied products, place further orders, due to the inability to transfer
payments through SWIFT.
▪ Technology sanctions may affect some medical equipment, because of inclusion

of dual use technologies, such as lasers, microchips, and computers.
▪ Sanctions will also affect hospitals to access non-Russian engineering and

construction services to refurbish healthcare facilities, leading to a gradual
erosion in the standards of care.

Impact by Sector
Insurance
Insurance
The impact will vary across insurance lines

250
200 200
200
150 150
150
100 100
100
50 50 50
0
0 0
50 INDICES
50.00
Equity 0.9% 7.0% 3.3%
25
Jobs -5.3% -4.1% -4.8%
25.00
M&A - 11.8% -35.0%
- 0
SENTIMENTS
News - -1.3% -2.8%
(25.00) -25
Filings - - 16.4%
(50.00) -50
Jan-21 Oct-21 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021
Source: GlobalData
Insurance: impact assessment
Insurers become more wary about the prospects of major claims arising from the Ukraine-Russia war
Aviation and marine claims are among the most concerning ones to insurers
Revenue predictions Sanctions

▪ Concerns that major claims will arise from the Ukraine-Russia war continue to rise. ▪ The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has urged the industry to stop doing
Aviation, marine, trade credit and political risk insurance are the business lines business with the nuclear insurance pools and insurance companies based in
more worrisome in this respect. Russia and Belarus. However, all reinsurance risks should continue to cover for
▪ Planes trapped in Russia could result in some of the biggest insurance claims. The risks associated with nuclear power companies to continue providing financial
giant aircraft leasing firm, AerCap, recently filed a USD3.5bn insurance claim for its protection.
planes and engines stuck in Russia. AerCap is the most exposed aircraft leasing firm ▪ As Russia continues its invasion of Ukraine, the EU as well as other countries
to Russia, with just under 5% of its fleet by value leased to Russian firms. such as Australia, Canada, Singapore and the United States, UK, have expanded
Meanwhile, Russia has announced plans to seize the assets of Western companies sanctions imposed on Russia. For instance, there is a ban on new European
suspending operations or leaving the country altogether and has passed legislation investments across Russia’s energy sector meaning that insurers and reinsurers
to seize USD 10 bn worth of jets leased to Aeroflot and other Russian airlines. Thus, are not able to underwrite new business on Russian energy risks.
aviation insurance claims could hit this figure in losses, with part of it passed onto
▪ Other sanctions previously introduced had banned insurance and reinsurance
reinsurers.
services from international firms on goods and technology intended to be used in
▪ Maritime claims from related to ships trapped in the Black Sea will also be Belarus’ and Russia’s aviation, maritime and space industries.
significant. Back in March, Bangladesh Shipping Corporation became the first
▪ The withdrawal of international (re)insurance capacity means that there will be
company to file a major war risk insurance claim related to the Ukraine-Russia
greater reliance on the state-owned Russian Reinsurance company, which was
conflict when it filed a claim for USD22.4 million. Although the war risk insurance
set up in 2016 with the aim to provide reinsurance capacity for insurers following
was provided by Shadharan Bima, the risk was reinsured by Lloyd’s of London broker
the introduction of sanctions.
Tysers, with the exposure of the vessel being roughly 10% and 90% respectively.
▪ Most lines have war exclusions, thereby mitigating losses for insurers. However, Premiums impact
some policies will provide cover for war, making it difficult to establish the scale of
▪ Political risk, credit risk, aviation, marine, cyber, and energy insurance are the
losses.
lines most vulnerable to premium rates increases. Despite increases in premium
▪ The London marine insurance market expanded its high-risk areas to include all of rates, where cover is available, coverage may become less exhaustive.
Russia’s waters in April. The Baltic and Black Sea ports are commonly used for the
▪ The war is increasing inflation, which will push up non-life insurance claims. This
export of agricultural goods such as grains as well as for oil exports. Such a move
will eventually lead to higher premiums.
will further increase the cost of shipping in the conflict zone. Already, insurers 122
are charging additional premiums for ships sailing through these waters.
Insurance
Latest revisions suggest a double-digit contraction in 2022 and a negative CAGR for the Ukrainian insurance industry during the forecast period.
• The effect of COVID-19 on the Russian

Russia Life Insurance gross written premiums Ukraine Life Insurance gross written premiums insurance market has not been material.
(in RUB Million) (in UAH Million) Both segments recorded double-digit
growth in 2021 GWP.
• Back in January 2022, prior to the invasion
of Ukraine by the armed forces of the
Russian Federation, the life insurance
segment was expected to reach RUB
617,665 million by 2025. However, the
latest forecast revision now suggests the
segment will not arrive to RUB 600,000
million before 2026.
• The General Insurance segment is
expected to take the biggest hit in the
Russian insurance market in 2022 due to
Russia General Insurance gross written premiums Ukraine General Insurance gross written premiums the sanctions imposed by the west and the
(in RUB Million) (in UAH Million) slowdown in the economy. Russia's
maritime sector is struggling with the
winding down of services, including ship
certification by leading foreign providers
needed for accessing ports and securing
insurance.
• In Ukraine, as expected, 2022 will show a
big drop in business particularly in General
Insurance, where business is expected to
contract by 19%. Both segments will
record a negative CAGR, -2.8% for Life and
-3.2% for GI, during the forecast period
(2021-2026).
Source: GlobalData’s Global Insurance Database Note: Actual 2021 data for Russia became available between the publication of the previous report and this edition
Insurance companies most exposed to Russia
Russian top 10 general insurers by GWP market share, 2021 Russian top 10 life insurers by GWP market share, 2021
Source: GlobalData’s Company LOB Breakdowns Database 124

Insurance companies most exposed to Ukraine
Ukrainian top five general insurers by GWP market share, 2020 Ukrainian top five life insurers by GWP market share, 2020
Source: GlobalData’s Company LOB Breakdowns Database 125

Impact by Sector
Medical Devices
Medical devices
Conflict in Ukraine will have serious effects on the availability of vital medical equipment in Russia, as well as affecting regional supply chains
GlobalData estimates that the Russian medical device market will decline by 34% as a result of sanctions.
250
200 200
200
150 150
150
100 100
100
50 50 50
0
0 0
50 INDICES
50.00
Equity 1.2% 3.0% -7.6%
25
Jobs -0.6% -0.8% -2.4%
25.00
M&A - -21.7% -42.7%
- 0
SENTIMENTS
News - 1.3% 0.4%
(25.00) -25
Filings - - 11.0%
(50.00) -50
Jan-21 Oct-21 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021
Source: GlobalData
Medical devices: impact assessment
Conflict in Ukraine will disrupt post-COVID 19 Healthcare Recovery in Russia
The conflict will lead to downturns in the medical device market in Russia but may also disrupt regional supplies of some medical devices
▪ The medical device market in Russia is expected to decline from $11.1 billion to • Roszdravnadzor (the Federal Service for Surveillance in Healthcare) has asked
$7.4 billion as a result of sanctions, a collapse in the value of the ruble, and a importers of medical devices to audit stockpiles, ahead of an expectation of
general decline in the economy. The ear, nose, and throat (ENT) market, which is shortages.
dominated by imported hearing aid devices, is expected to decline by 90%. ▪ The Russian government has issued a decree banning the export of imported
medical devices.
▪ The hospital supplies market is expected to decline by only 18% as a result of the
ability of Russian medical device companies to respond to demand for low- ▪ The Russian Ministry of health has proposed a new procedure for the
technology devices, such as personal protective equipment and hospital beds. expedited registration of new medical devices if imported supplies are
suddenly limited.
Sanctions ▪ Roszdravnadzor is reporting that, thus far, no shortages of medical devices
have been experienced.
▪ Sanctions will have negative consequences on Russia's ability to purchase
imported devices, as well as increase the cost of imported devices, due to a ▪ The Russian government has announced an increase in the state-sponsored
worsening exchange rate, reduced government budgets, and increasing inflation. allowance for healthcare equipment, to help public sector hospitals purchase
Over 73% of medical devices used in Russia were imported. medical devices to offset the likely dramatic increases in prices.
▪ Some medical devices may be subject to sanctions due to incorporation of dual

use technologies.
▪ Medical device manufacturers announcing sales and deliveries in Russia:
▪ Accenture, Nikon, Arjo, and Conformis in halting sales and deliveries in Russia.
▪ Shimadzu, while halting instrument sales, hopes to resume healthcare sales as

soon as possible.
▪ Thermo-Fisher, Zeiss, and Roche intend to prioritize healthcare-related sales.

128
Source: GlobalData
Russian medical device sector: impacts
The impacts on the medical devices market in Russia will be deep and likely long lasting, leading to the significant worsening of healthcare standards
2022 Russian medical devices revenue 2022 Russian medical devices sector estimates • All medical device sectors will be negatively
impacted due to the conflict in Ukraine as a
result of rising prices, the inability to access or
Pre-2022 Impact of
Sector pay for imported devices, and a general
forecast ($M) war ($M)
worsening of the economic situation.
ENT devices 24 2
Patient monitoring 92 43 • Private healthcare is more likely to be affected
Nephrology and urology devices 87 40 than public healthcare, as the Russian state will
likely preferentially offer financial support to
Cardiovascular devices 1,012 475
the public sector.
Orthopedic devices 997 469
Ophthalmic devices 154 78 • The degree of impact will vary by market,
Diagnostic imaging 791 429 depending on their reliance on imported
devices, the availability of alternative
Diabetes care devices 235 129 domestically produced devices, and whether
Drug delivery devices 77 42 devices contain dual-use technologies that
In vitro diagnostics 774 443 might lead to restrictions based on technology
embargos.
Anesthesia and respiratory devices 305 177
Dental devices 307 184 • Based on current information, markets will
General surgery 1,033 649 largely recover to previous 2030 forecasts by
Neurology devices 165 107
2030, based on an assumption there is still a
prospect of the Russian government reversing
Wound care management 498 336 its current policies, and limiting long-term
Hospital supplies 4,574 3,751 damage to the Russian economy.
Overall market value 11,124 7,354
• GlobalData believes that when sanctions are
eased, this will follow a phased trajectory. The
timing of this will impact the recovery of the
Russian medical devices market.
Source: GlobalData
Some medical devices face technology embargoes
The incorporation of certain types of components within medical devices may cause further restrictions on availability of devices in addition to financial barriers.
Potential impact of technology embargos on dental, ophthalmic and aesthetic

laser sales in Russia
• The US government has identified certain components,
potentially of US origin, as providing a dual-use capability,
including military usage. For example, lasers have been
specifically identified as a dual-use device.
• While devices fulfilling a strict humanitarian need are less

likely to face restrictions in exporting to Russia, devices that
meet a non-essential medical purpose, such as aesthetic
surgery, are less likely to be deemed as fulfilling an essential
medical need. Even for devices that may meet this need,
they will likely require application for export licenses.
• Medical device companies will need to audit their supply

chain to ensure suppliers do not fall foul of US sanctions.
• Dental lasers in Russia are expected to be comparatively less

affected than aesthetic surgical lasers (laser resurfacing
devices) and ophthalmic lasers (typically used for corrective
vision care), due to the presence of domestic manufacturers.
• Russian domestic manufacturers of laser devices may exploit

demands in the market because of the loss of access to
American and European devices.
Source: GlobalData
Disrupted medical device clinical trials
Clinical trials in the region are highly likely to be disrupted as a direct result of conflict or the impact of sanctions
▪ Planned or ongoing clinical trials in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Medical device clinical trials in Medical device clinical trials by trial status;
and Moldova are most at risk of disruption due to the ongoing Russia/Ukraine/Belarus/Moldova Russia/Ukraine/Belarus/Moldova
conflict, the risk of the conflict spreading, and the impact of
sanctions.
▪ 84 planned or ongoing trials are likely to be affected,

including 75 device clinical trials (trials involving a new
medical device), and nine procedure trials (trials including an
existing medical device).
▪ According to GlobalData's Medical Devices Clinical Trials

Database, 19 planned or ongoing clinical trials are at most risk
of immediate disruption due to conflict affecting the site or
near to the site (Ukraine). The affected sponsors include:
Asieris MediTech Co Ltd, Intas Pharmaceuticals
Ltd, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc, Avillion LLP, Ascendis
Recruiting/ongoing medical device trials in Top ten sponsors of medical device trials in
Pharma AS, Chiesi Farmaceutici SpA, Futura Medical
Russia/Ukraine/Belarus/Ukraine Russia/Ukraine/Belarus/Moldova
Plc, Janssen Research & Development LLC, F. Hoffmann-La
Roche Ltd, Novo Nordisk AS, Lumenis Ltd, Cryonove Pharma
Spas, Italian Institute of Telemedicine, Foundation for
Innovative New Diagnostics, Terumo Europe NV, American
Federation of Medical Synergetics.
▪ Four trials are planned in Russia and are likely to be

immediately impacted. The affected sponsors includes: Chiesi
Farmaceutici SpA, Lintex, ARNA Genomics US Inc and Toray
Medical Co Ltd.
Source: GlobalData Medical Intelligence Center Clinical Trials Database 131

Medical device company exposure in Russia
Top twenty medical device companies with trackable market share ranked by percentage of total revenue derived from Russia
A significant proportion of Natus Medical revenue is at risk as a result of the conflict
Position Companies Revenue ($M) #News #Filing #Deals #Jobs posted Tracked Russia % Russian
mentions revenue ($M) revenue
1 Natus Medical Inc 416 N/A N/A N/A N/A 40 9.60%

2 Molnlycke Health Care AB 2,044 N/A N/A N/A N/A 67 3.29%
3 Smiths Medical 3,086 N/A N/A N/A N/A 95 3.08%
4 Medline Industries Inc 17,500 N/A N/A N/A N/A 436 2.49%
5 Anika Therapeutics Inc 130 0 0 3 0 3 2.38%
6 AngioDynamics Inc 291 1 0 1 0 7 2.30%
7 Becton Dickinson and Co 20,248 0 6 8 1 363 1.79%
8 LivaNova Plc 934 0 2 0 1 15 1.63%
9 Getinge AB 3,153 0 9 0 1 51 1.60%
10 Steris Plc 3,108 N/A N/A N/A N/A 50 1.59%
11 Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc 7,836 1 0 5 8 124 1.58%
12 Smith & Nephew Plc 4,560 2 15 3 23 72 1.58%
13 Teleflex Inc 2,537 0 1 1 0 40 1.58%
14 Ansell Limited 2,027 0 15 1 26 31 1.53%
15 Henry Schein Inc 10,119 0 1 0 0 145 1.43%
16 Medtronic Plc 30,117 4 16 10 154 426 1.42%
17 Avanos Medical Inc 715 0 1 0 0 10 1.37%
18 Stryker Corp 17,108 2 10 7 0 233 1.36%
19 Dragerwerk AG & Co KGaA 3,883 0 16 2 0 51 1.30%
20 GE Healthcare 18,009 N/A N/A N/A N/A 225 1.25%
Source: GlobalData Medical Intelligence Center 132

Medical device company reaction to Russo-Ukrainian War
How companies with most at stake (as percentage of revenue) have reacted to the conflict
Revenue Tracked Russia % Russian

Companies Company response
($M) revenue ($M) revenue
1 Natus Medical Inc 416 40 9.60% No statement issued on Russia or Ukraine
2 Molnlycke Health Care AB 2,044 67 3.29% Issued statement on situation, no plans at moment to change activity in Russia
3 Smiths Medical 3,086 95 3.08% No statement issued on Russia or Ukraine
4 Medline Industries Inc 17,500 436 2.49% No statement issued on Russia or Ukraine
5 Anika Therapeutics Inc 130 3 2.38% No statement issued on Russia or Ukraine
6 AngioDynamics Inc 291 7 2.30% No statement issued on Russia or Ukraine
7 Becton Dickinson and Co 20,248 363 1.79% Issued statement indicating it was proactively monitoring the situation and impacts on the supply chain
8 LivaNova Plc 934 15 1.63% No statement issued on Russia or Ukraine
9 Getinge AB 3,153 51 1.60% No statement issued on Russia or Ukraine
10 Steris Plc 3,108 50 1.59% Issues statement condemning Russian action
11 Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc 7,836 124 1.58% Indicated no medium-term expectations of titanium shortages due to the Conflict
12 Smith & Nephew Plc 4,560 72 1.58% No statement issued on Russia or Ukraine
13 Teleflex Inc 2,537 40 1.58% No statement issued on Russia or Ukraine
14 Ansell Limited 2,027 31 1.53% No statement issued on Russia or Ukraine
15 Henry Schein Inc 10,119 145 1.43% Set up Disaster Relief Fund to provide aid to the region
16 Medtronic Plc 30,117 426 1.42% Set up Disaster Relief Fund to provide aid to the region. Supporting employees in region, including relocation
17 Avanos Medical Inc 715 10 1.37% No statement issued on Russia or Ukraine
Stryker to provide additional resources to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and International Federation Red Cross and Red
18 Stryker Corp 17,108 233 1.36%
Crescent Societies (IFRC) to support their relief efforts in Ukraine and in surrounding countries.
19 Dragerwerk AG & Co KGaA 3,883 51 1.30% No statement issued on Russia or Ukraine
20 GE Healthcare 18,009 225 1.25% GE Healthcare is providing $4.5m in medical equipment to support Ukraine. "Mision critical" healthcare activities continue in Russia
133
Medical device company exposure in Russia
Top twenty medical device companies with trackable market share ranked BY revenue derived from Russia
Medline Industries, Medtronic, Becton Dickinson, Cardinal Health, and Abbott Laboratories face significant revenue losses, though Russia is a minor source of revenue
Position Companies Revenue ($M) #News #Filing #Deals #Jobs posted Tracked Russia % Russian
mentions revenue ($M) revenue
1 Medline Industries Inc 17,500 N/A N/A N/A N/A 436 2.49%
2 Medtronic Plc 30,117 4 16 10 154 426 1.42%
3 Becton Dickinson and Co 20,248 0 6 8 1 363 1.79%
4 Cardinal Health Inc 162,467 N/A N/A N/A N/A 344 0.21%
5 Abbott Laboratories 43,075 6 56 34 1072 251 0.58%
6 Siemens Healthineers AG 20,516 0 10 15 195 240 1.17%
7 Stryker Corp 17,108 2 10 7 0 233 1.36%
8 GE Healthcare 18,009 N/A N/A N/A N/A 225 1.25%
9 Koninklijke Philips NV 20,286 N/A N/A N/A N/A 198 0.97%
10 Baxter International Inc 24,477 0 9 14 0 191 0.78%
11 Johnson & Johnson 93,775 N/A N/A N/A N/A 176 0.19%
12 F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd 68,710 N/A N/A N/A N/A 145 0.21%
13 Henry Schein Inc 10,119 0 1 0 0 145 1.43%
14 Boston Scientific Corp 11,888 0 38 6 0 140 1.18%
15 Bayer AG 47,196 N/A N/A N/A N/A 135 0.29%
16 Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc 7,836 1 0 5 8 124 1.58%
17 3M Co 35,355 N/A N/A N/A N/A 105 0.30%
18 Smiths Medical 3,086 N/A N/A N/A N/A 95 3.08%
19 Danaher Corp 29,453 0 22 0 26 83 0.28%
20 B. Braun Melsungen AG 8,466 N/A N/A N/A N/A 81 0.96%

Medical device company reaction to Russo-Ukrainian War
How companies with greatest amount of revenue in Russia have reacted to the Russo-Ukrainian War
Revenue Tracked Russia % Russian

Companies Company response
($M) revenue ($M) revenue
1 Medline Industries Inc 17,500 436 2.49% No statement issued on Russia or Ukraine
2 Medtronic Plc 30,117 426 1.42% Set up Disaster Relief Fund to provide aid to the region. Supporting employees in region, including relocation
3 Becton Dickinson and Co 20,248 363 1.79% Issued statement indicating it was proactively monitoring the situation and impacts on the supply chain
4 Cardinal Health Inc 162,467 344 0.21% No statement issued on Russia or Ukraine
5 Abbott Laboratories 43,075 251 0.58% Non-essential business has been scaled back in Russia
6 Siemens Healthineers AG 20,516 240 1.17% Siemens Healthineers condemned Russian action. Parent has suspended new business, but this does not extend to the Healthineers spinoff
Stryker to provide additional resources to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and International Federation Red Cross and Red
7 Stryker Corp 17,108 233 1.36%
Crescent Societies (IFRC) to support their relief efforts in Ukraine and in surrounding countries.
8 GE Healthcare 18,009 225 1.25% GE Healthcare is providing $4.5M in medical equipment to support Ukraine. ‘Mission critical’ healthcare activities continue in Russia
9 Koninklijke Philips NV 20,286 198 0.97% Philips Foundation to provide medical equipment to Ukraine, including mobile hospital. Medical equipment supplies to continue to Russia
10 Baxter International Inc 24,477 191 0.78% No statement issued on Russia or Ukraine
11 Johnson & Johnson 93,775 176 0.19% Patient enrolment in ongoing clinical trials put on hold
12 F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd 68,710 145 0.21% Supplies of medical devices will continue to Russia, but prices are fixed in roubles, leading to increasing losses
13 Henry Schein Inc 10,119 145 1.43% Set up Disaster Relief Fund to provide aid to the region
14 Boston Scientific Corp 11,888 140 1.18% Committed to continuing to supply devices to the region and supporting local employees
15 Bayer AG 47,196 135 0.29% Non-essential business activity has been halted
16 Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc 7,836 124 1.58% Indicated no medium-term expectations of titanium shortages due to the Conflict
17 3M Co 35,355 105 0.30% All 3M business operations in Russia are suspended
18 Smiths Medical 3,086 95 3.08% No statement issued on Russia or Ukraine
Danaher has pledged $1M to Global Giving, Save the Children and International Rescue Committee, to support Ukraine. Sales and shipping in
19 Danaher Corp 29,453 83 0.28%
Russia resumed
20 B. Braun Melsungen AG 8,466 81 0.96% No statement issued on Russia or Ukraine
135
Medical device company exposure in Ukraine & Belarus
Leading companies will have limited exposure to medical device revenues in Ukraine and Belarus given the relatively small sizes of these markets
Position Companies Parent/subsidiary/independent Headquarters Annual revenue ($M) Estimated % revenue in

Ukraine & Belarus
1 Abbott Laboratories Parent United States of America 43,075.00 <0.5%
2 Medtronic Plc Parent Ireland 30,117.00 <1%
3 Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co KGaA Subsidiary (of Fresenius SE & Co KGaA ) Germany 20,359.17 <0.1%
4 Laboratory Corp of America Holdings Parent United States of America 16,120.90 <0.5%
5 Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc Parent United States of America 7,836.20 <1%
6 Olympus Corp Parent Japan 6,890.94 <0.2%
7 Hologic Inc Parent United States of America 5,632.30 <0.5%
8 Getinge AB Parent Sweden 3,153.45 <0.75%
9 Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc Parent United States of America 2,922.55 <0.1%
10 ConvaTec Group Plc Parent United Kingdom 1,894.30 <0.5%

Medical device deals at risk
The Russo-Ukrainian conflict places at-risk investments inside Russia and Ukraine
Russia has threatened to nationalize foreign assets inside Russia, but recent medical device investments are of limited value
Deal announced Deal status Deal headline Acquirers/investors/surviving Issuer/licensor/target/vendor Target Deal value
date entity /licensee/partners location ($M)
June 2017 Completed New Medicine (DOC+) Secures $5 Million in Series B Funding Baring Vostok Capital Partners Investment DOC+ Russia 5.50
Fund; Yandex
July 2017 Completed ExoAtlet Raises $1.2 Million in Private Financing Undisclosed ExoAtlet Global SA Russia 1.20
February 2018 Completed Cosmo and Company Invests $5 million in ExoAtlet COSMO & COMPANY CO., LTD. ExoAtlet Global SA Russia 5.00
October 2018 Announced Medicover to Acquire Ukrainian Laboratory Operations from Invitro Medicover AB Invitro - Ukrainian Laboratory Operations Russia 6.92
for $6.9 Million
January 2019 Completed Personal Medication & Health Management (PM&HM) Raises $4.6 Russian Venture Company Personal Medication & Health Russia 4.63
Million in Financing Management
June 2019 Completed Intellogic (Botkin.AI) Raises $1.5 Million in Series A Financing Alfa Capital LLC; Intellogic LLC Russia 1.54
RusBio Ventures LP;
Primer Capital;
Orbita Capital Partners
March 2020 Completed THELMA Therapeutics Acquires 27% Stake in Eckert & Ziegler BEBIG THELMA Therapeutics Co Ltd Eckert; Ziegler BEBIG (Russia) Russia 20.00
December 2020 Completed OOO Genotek (Genotek Medical Genetic Center) Raises USD4 Million Yandex NV OOO Genotek Russia 4.00
in Funding Round
December 2020 Completed Intellogic (Botkin.AI) Raises $2 Million in Series B Financing Tashir Group; Intellogic LLC Russia 2.15
Unicorn Capital Partners Ltd
December 2020 Completed Medical Screening Systems (Celsus.ai) Secures $2.43 Million in Series RVC Seed Fund, Ltd. Medical Screening Systems Russia 2.44
A Venture Funding Round
July 2021 Completed ComeBack Mobility Raises $1 Million in Seed Funding JSC Farmak; Kyivstar JSC; Undisclosed; ComeBack Mobility Inc Ukraine 1.00
FISON
Source: GlobalData Medical Intelligence Center Deals Database 137

Medical device deals at risk
The Russo-Ukrainian conflict places at-risk investments inside Russia and Ukraine
Targeted sanctions may impact investments made by some Russian investors outside of Russia
Deal announced Deal status Deal headline Acquirers/investors/surviving Acquirer Issuer/licensor/ Deal value
date entity /licensee/partners location target/vendor ($M)
January 2017 Completed Neon Therapeutics Raises USD70 Nextech Invest Ltd; Inbio Ventures DC Ltd; Access Industries Inc; Fidelity Management & Research Russia BioNTech US Inc 70.00
Million in Series B Financing Company; Partner Fund Management LP; Wellington Management Company LLP; Third Rock Ventures LLC
January 2017 Completed Atlas Genetics Raises $35 Million in RMI Partners; Life Sciences Partners BV; Consort Medical Ltd; Technology Venture Partners, LLC (TVP); Russia Binx Health Inc 35.00
Series D Financing Wondfo Biotech Co., Ltd; BB Biotech Ventures;
Johnson & Johnson Innovation - JJDC Inc; Novartis Venture Fund
April 2017 Completed Epic Sciences Raises $40 Million in Pagoda Investment Advisors (S) Pte., Ltd.; Domain Associates LLC; Altos Capital Partners LLC; Hermed Capital Russia Epic Sciences Inc 40.00
Series D Venture Financing Co Ltd; Sabby Capital, LLC; Reach Tone Ltd; Genomic Health Inc; VI-Ventures; RMI Partners
June 2017 Announced Hebron to Form Joint Venture with BioPromin Ltd; Nisun International Enterprise Development Group Co Ltd Ukraine 55.00
BioPromin
June 2017 Announced Hebron Technology to Form Joint Nisun International Enterprise Development Group Co Ltd; Research and Product Complex BioPromin Ltd; Ukraine 50.00
Venture with Research and Product Undisclosed
Complex BioPromin
October 2017 Completed EchoPixel Raises $8.5 Million in Runa Capital; Lam Research - California; Aurus Ventures; Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services Ltd; Russia EchoPixel Inc 8.50
Series A Financing Binomial Ventures; Intel Capital Corp
October 2018 Completed Magnisense Raises $5.7 Million in MINV SA; Undisclosed; Provestis; Concorde Capital; Meusinvest Group Ukraine Magnisense SAS 5.73
Venture Financing
January 2019 Completed Immusoft Raises Additional $17 RusBio Ventures LP; Mesa Verde Venture Partners LP; DEFTA Partners; Undisclosed; Alexandria Venture Russia Immusoft Corp 17.00
Million in Series B Venture Investments; Breakout Ventures, L.P.
Financing
July 2019 Completed Oncimmune Holdings Enters into Oncimmune Holdings Plc; R-Pharm Russia 6.29
Commercialization Partnership
with R-Pharm
March 2021 Completed 3billion Raises $12.5 Million in Yuanta Investment Co Ltd; The Wells Investment; JW Asset Management, LLC; Korea Investment & Securities Ukraine 3billion Inc 12.46
Series C Financing Co Ltd; AVentures Capital; Kakao Investment; Magna Investment Inc
Source: GlobalData Medical Intelligence Center Deals Database 138

Impact by Sector
Mining
Mining
Rising commodity prices are expected to lead to higher share prices in key commodities

250
200 200
200
150 150
150
100 100
100
50 50 50
0
0 0
50 INDICES
50.00
Equity 2.6% 6.8% 13.7%
25
Jobs -1.3% 1.4% 11.1%
25.00
M&A - 0.0% -16.2%
- 0
SENTIMENTS
News - 0.4% -0.6%
(25.00) -25
Filings - - 0.1%
(50.00) -50
Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021
Source: GlobalData
Mining: impact assessment
Tighter supplies for key commodities are expected as Russia is a key supplier of palladium, platinum, diamonds, gold, and nickel
Supply side Operational impacts
▪ There has been a significant impact on the mining industry’s supply ▪ Aside from the operational impacts within the Ukraine, production from some
chain, as Russia is among the top three producers of diamond, gold, Russian mines is being affected. While Nornickel has stated that operations are
platinum group metals (PGMs), and nickel. It is also a key supplier of continuing and Polymetal reported on March 9 that all its operations in Russia
seaborne and met coal (to European markets), iron ore, steel and and Kazakhstan continue undisrupted, Canadian miner Kinross announced that it
aluminum. was suspending all activities in Russia, including its Udinsk development project in
Khabarovsk Krai, and operations at its Kupol gold mine. Further to that it has
▪ Meanwhile Ukraine, is principally a supplier of coal, iron ore, and agreed to sell its operations to Highland Gold Mining, one of the larger gold
uranium, though in each case its share of global production is small. producers in Russia, for $680 million, including $400 million for Kupol and $280
million for Udinsk.
▪ Faced by sanctions, Severstal, one of Russia' largest steelmakers, is
reported to be redirecting product to other markets such as Asia, the ▪ Polymetal has advised that sales of silver and gold to China, Kazakhstan, and East
Middle East, and South America. Meanwhile, Ferrexpo announced Asia remain unaffected by sanctions, and “physical demand for gold in Russia has
force majeure due to concerns over the temporary suspension of the been supported by the decision of the Russian Central Bank to resume gold
Pivdennyi port terminal, following the Russian invasion, with Ukranian purchases in the domestic market”.
miner and steel producer Metinvest doing the same, with many
operations being put into conservation mode. Anticipating shortages
from Russia and Ukraine, Japan’s Nippon Steel is looking for alternate
sourcing of feedstock from Brazil and Australian mining companies.
▪ Diamond miner Alrosa has been heavily restricted from raising money
through the US market, with President Biden’s executive order Russia accounted for an estimated
forbidding them from engaging in transactions with Alrosa involving 43% of global palladium
“new debt of longer than 14 days maturity or new equity.” The
company is also closing its US office. production in 2021
141
Source: GlobalData
Commodity prices surge on supply concerns
Prices of several commodities have risen steeply as production and trade flows are disrupted
▪ Nickel prices were already rising before the Ukraine crisis, up by 36% from a monthly average of Daily nickel prices to March 9
$16,407/t in March 2021 to $22,320/t in January 2022. However, on March 8, nickel prices on the
LME briefly topped $100,000/t before trading was suspended. Previously they had increased by
250% in just two days having ended at $29,800/t on Friday March 4 and risen Monday March 7 to
$42,990/t.
▪ With Russia supplying approximately 8% of global nickel, and rising demand for the high-grade
nickel for EV battery production—of which Russia supplies 17%—there are major concerns over
supplies, with inventories at LME-registered warehouses at the lowest point since 2019. Rising
prices for lithium, another key component of EV batteries, will further compound problems for EV
manufacturers, while high nickel prices impact manufacturers of stainless steel.
▪ This may prove to be a boost for other producers such as the Philippines. In April 2021, the
Philippines government lifted the ban on new mineral agreements, which was imposed in 2012 for
environmental violations, and, despite issues with mines on care and maintenance, the industry
bounced back in 2021 with nickel production reported to have risen by 23%. Daily palladium prices to March 8
▪ Meanwhile palladium prices have also risen steeply, up by 63% between the start of January 2022
and March 8. Russia accounts for over 40% of global palladium production and demand is rising as
the automotive market recovers from the pandemic, with supply currently in deficit. As a result of
the rising prices, automakers may look to substitute palladium with platinum in catalytic converters
where feasible.
▪ The aluminium price has been on a steep rise since November 2021 and passed $3,800/t in early
March. Like nickel and palladium, there are fears of a supply shortage. While Russia accounts for
6% of global production, there is also concern over how the Ukraine crisis might impact gas
supplies to European smelters.

With limited surplus in other markets
Russia’s importance in commodity export markets will drive further price rises as buyers look elsewhere
▪ While sanctions have yet to be imposed on many commodities, the Share of value of exports of commodities by major country, 2020
challenges faced by buyers of these commodities from Russia, such
as financial restrictions on Russian banks and concerns over sea and
rail transport, are leading to buyers, particularly in Europe, shopping
elsewhere. However, surplus output will be hard to find.
▪ Russia is a key exporter of many commodities, ranking first in terms

of nickel and nickel products1, third for coal2 and precious metals
ores and concentrates, fifth for iron and steel, and sixth for
aluminium3 in 2020, according to trade data4. Buyers in coal in
Europe and China have been reported to be looking for alternative
suppliers, such as Australia and Indonesia, which are the first and
second ranked coal suppliers globally, with Indonesia the world’s
largest thermal coal supplier. However, with Russia such a significant
supplier, accounting for 15% of global coal exports in 2020, and
supplies limited, this will push up already high prices of thermal
coal. Similarly, steel producers Nippon Steel and JFE Steel in Japan,
import coking coal from Russia and are looking to markets such as
Australia and Canada as alternatives.
▪ Unfortunately for buyers, supply is extremely tight, with little most

miners can do to meet this demand, certainly in the short term, with
limited if no surpluses for most commodities.
[1] Nickel and articles thereof. [2] Coal; briquettes, ovoids, and similar solid fuels manufactured from coal. [3] Aluminium and articles thereof. [4] Source: Trade Map 143
Foreign ownership of Russian operations highest for gold
Gold production in Russia could be severely dented if foreign-owned companies follow Kinross example
Share of production in 2020 by company HQ Copper Diamond Gold Iron Ore Nickel Palladium Platinum Silver Uranium
Australia
Canada 5.8% 4.6%
China 0.3% 0.9% 1.6%
Denmark
Germany
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China 0.7%
India
Italy
Republic of Korea (South Korea)
Russia 90.4% 99.8% 74.4% 78.0% 100.0% 99.7% 96.6% 85.5% 96.5%
Sweden 0.4%
Switzerland 0.5% 4.6% 0.1%
United Kingdom 0.1% 14.3% 12.9% 1.9% 5.5%
United States 1.6% 1.2% 1.5% 1.1%
Others 7.5% 0.2% 2.6% 2.3% 0.3% 1.4% 1.6% 3.5%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Impact by Sector
Oil & Gas

Oil & gas
Rising energy prices to benefit share prices and investment levels in the sector

250
200 200
200
150 150
150
100 100
100
50 50 50
0
0 0
50 INDICES
50.00
Equity 2.9% 8.3% 15.9%
25 Jobs -1.6% 2.0% 7.8%
25.00
M&A - -3.6% 8.2%
- 0
SENTIMENTS
-25
News - 6.9% -1.2%
(25.00)
Filings - - 14.8%
(50.00) -50
Source: GlobalData
Oil & gas: impact assessment
Russia’s place as a top producer of oil and gas means that sanctions and supply risk are having a major impact on global markets
Russia may find itself increasingly isolated in the world economy, with limited capabilities to extract its vast resources
Revenue predictions Supply chain disruption
▪ Global oil and gas prices, which were already at its highest levels since 2014 amid ▪ Pipelines from Russia are Europe’s largest source of natural gas. In the short term,
crude supply constraints, have risen further since the start of the Russia-Ukraine gas supplies have increased, but risks to this trade pose a threat to European gas
war. High prices are expected to remain due to supply risk and this is expected to supplies.
translate into higher revenues for oil and gas producers, though Russia’s Urals
crude is now heavily discounted. ▪ In the medium to long term, Europe will try to decouple itself from Russian gas by
switching over to renewables, nuclear power, and LNG. Options are limited by
▪ Companies with gas infrastructure in proximity to Europe stand to benefit the most capacity in the short term, however, and gas supply issues could force countries
as the region tries to curb its dependency on Russia to fire up coal plants to meet power demand.
▪ Oil majors with sizable exposure to Russia, such as BP, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, Sanctions
and Shell, are likely to see a short-term dip in their revenues. BP alone expects to
incur $25 billion in impairment charges from its stake sale in Rosneft. ▪ Sanctions on Russia’s banks using the SWIFT system have so far excluded energy
payments from their scope, thus allowing payments for Russian oil and gas to
Capex realignment continue. However, there is pressure for further sanctions on Russian oil and gas
exports.
▪ Over $160 billion worth of projects are under development in Russia. Imposition of
sanctions and subsequent exodus of foreign companies could hamper project • Sanctions directly impacting the energy sector include US sanctions on the testing
financing in the country. In one such case, TotalEnergies has decided to stop and certification of the Nord Stream-2 pipeline, Australian sanctions on the
financing all new projects in Russia sharing of equipment for use in exploration and production in the Russian Arctic,
and European sanctions on exports of Refinery equipment to Russia.
▪ Oil majors exiting Russia may divert their planned capex to other markets,
presumably driving M&A activity in the global energy sector.

Oil & gas company exposure in Russia
As Russia becomes isolated with majors exiting, it creates an opportunity for some of the largest companies with soaring oil and gas prices
Companies Oil and gas LNG capacity Refining capacity Petrochemicals Comment
reserves (mmboe) (mtpa) (mbd) capacity (mtpa)
Saudi Arabian Oil Co
Gazprom 102,893.5 15.5 1,053.2 13.3 Gazprom’s shares dived; however, gas continues to flow via Ukrainian transit.
National Iranian Oil Co Following Vienna ongoing talks, Iran may gain access to the oil world to compensate oil shortages.
China National Petroleum Corp 967 5.46 Chinese giants have signed several agreements with Russia prior to war.
Rosneft Oil Co 40,316 1.24 2,385.3 2.9 Rosneft has been struggling to find crude buyers as traders began to boycott.
QatarEnergy Qatar plans to increase gas capacity in the future, potentially replacing some of Russian exports.
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co
Kuwait Petroleum Corp
Exxon Mobil Corp 180.7 1.86 ExxonMobil will pass Russian shares to Rosneft, as it has announced the exit from Sakhalin 1 development.
Chevron Corp Chevron has a 15% stake in the Caspian Pipeline delivering Kazakh crude through Russia for export Black
Sea.
Shell plc 364.54 4.125 Shell’s planning to exit equity partnerships with Gazprom worth $3 billion.
Petroleo Brasileiro SA
Lukoil Oil Co 13,940.9 1,013.9 6.9 Lukoil shares fell by over 95% before trading was suspended.
TotalEnergies SE 1,148.2 5.46 0 TotalEnergies SE has announced they will not bring any new investments to Russia. Holds equity in
Novatek.
Novatek 13,852.7 46.495 120 2.59 Arctic LNG 2 may come to a halt as TotalEnergies stops investments.
BP Plc 779.4 BP has announced the offload of 19.75% stake in Rosneft and a complete exit from projects.
Sonatrach SpA Potential as alternative supply for European gas could benefit the company.
China National Offshore Oil Corp 378.3 1.98
Equinor ASA 492.4 Equinor will start divesting stakes in Russian JVs.
China Petrochemical Corp 376.4 2.3

Impact by Sector
Packaging
Packaging
Rising input prices and squeeze on consumers may impact the sector

250
200 200
200
150 150
150
100 100
100
50 50 50
0
0 0
50.00 50 INDICES
Equity 0.1% 4.1% -3.1%
25.00 25 Jobs -1.7% -2.7% 6.4%
M&A - -17.5% -32.5%
- 0
SENTIMENTS
-25
News - 0.7% -0.3%
(25.00)
Filings - - 9.1%
(50.00) -50
Source: GlobalData
Packaging: impact assessment
The value of the Ruble has largely bounced back, however the mass withdrawal of foreign companies show the Russian economy is perceived to be
uninvestable.
Sanctions and ruble depreciation Supply chain & demand disruption
• Sanctions on Russia will cause commodity prices to rise. Businesses were already facing • Aluminum prices have soared in the wake of the conflict. In 2021, Russia produced around
significant supply disruption during the pandemic. Aside from the sharp rises in oil and 3.7 million tons of aluminum metal, almost 6% of global output levels. The latest sanctions
gas input prices, paper & board and aluminum prices are currently the most affected, will effectively remove Russia’s ability to export aluminum and constrict supply.
with already high aluminum prices rising to reaching $4073 per ton on March 8.
• Wood exports to Europe were already adversely impacted as Russia implemented new
• Escalating financial restrictions have made it increasingly difficult for Russian businesses export duties and export restrictions in January 2022. Russia hiked export duties to 80% from
to trade with Europe. Examples include EU banks no longer accept deposits over its WTO commitment of a maximum of 13% to 15%. The European Federation of Wooden
EUR100,000 (in total) from Russian persons, entities. The EU has also banned Euro Pallet and Packaging Manufacturers says this could lead to a shortage of pallets in Ukraine
denominated transferable securities with Russian people and entities. hampering the supply chain further; Ukraine currently exports 15 million wooden pallets plus
around 2.7 million cubic meters of lumber, which is used for pallet production in France,
• Import restrictions on packaging and a number of ingredients for baby food production Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Poland. A further 7.6 million cubic meters exported
has prompted the Russian trade ministry to uncover opportunities to replace foreign from Belarus and Russia to the EU will be impacted by the export bans.
suppliers. The agriculture ministry has also proposed that the government set up export
quotas for sunflower oil to “maintain stability.” • Since the start of the conflict, many major packaging producers have shut down their
facilities in Ukraine, including glass container manufacturers Verallia and Vetropack (who
• Mondi owns the largest Russian paper producer, Mondi Syktyvkar, and earns around are reliant upon a continuous and reliable sources of oil and gas). The Ukrainian paper and
12% of its revenue from the country. The Ruble has stabilized from an initial major fall board packaging industry has also come to a virtual standstill with major customers and
in value, though its depreciation will bring potential challenges to company exports. suppliers such as Coca Cola, Nestle, Carlsberg, ABInbev, and ArcelorMittal closing their local
operations.
Companies are leaving Russia
• The extension of sanctions and exit of many western companies is resulting in the
• Ball Corporation have reduced operations at its three manufacturing plants in Russia closure or mothballing of packaging facilities in Russia. Stora Enso has ceased production in
and is evaluating the sale of its business there. Ball's Russian business generated 4% of Russia at its three corrugated and two wooden pallet plants, while the defacto closure of the
total net sales and 8% of total comparable operating earnings in 2021. On 1 April, food supply chain affected critical Black Sea shipping ports. Nevertheless, shortages of
paper-based packaging company, Smurfit Kappa, also announced it will leave the newsprint, kraft-liner, and wood-free papers are expected in Europe.
Russian market, with its operations there accounting for less than 1% of expected sales.

Impact by Sector
Pharma
Pharma
Immediate impact focused on Russia and Ukrainian markets

250
200 200
200
150 150
150
100 100
100
50 50 50
0
0 0
50 INDICES
50.00
Equity 2.4% 7.4% 0.6%
25 Jobs -1.7% -2.6% -7.8%
25.00
M&A - 10.4% -14.5%
- 0
SENTIMENTS
-25
News - 1.8% 1.2%
(25.00)
Filings - - 8.4%
(50.00) -50
Source: GlobalData
Pharma: impact assessment
The conflict in Ukraine could result in trial disruptions in Ukraine, Russia, and the surrounding countries
Sanctions will likely have minimal impact on the availability of pharmaceutical drugs in either country but could halt collaboration and funding for drug development in Russia
Product development Supply chain
▪ Restrictions on investment and money transfer will hamper drug development, ▪ Ukraine is not a major center of pharmaceutical contract manufacturing. Russia, while more
which is an incredibly capital-intensive industry. Ukraine’s compound screening significant than Ukraine, has a limited pharmaceutical manufacturing space and mostly
service company, Enamine, which supports biotech drug discovery, may see supplies the FSU (former Soviet Union). Russia has been unable to produce even enough of
disruption in supporting early-stage programs. its own Sputnik vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19, and is dependent on contract
manufacturers, including those in India and China.
▪ Much of Russia's innovative drug industry takes place in institutions or
companies with government ties or ties to the Skolkovo Foundation and might be ▪ Inflation resulting from these sanctions will affect contractual relationships. Imports of drugs
subject to sanctions. The Skolkovo Foundation and its founder, Viktor Vekselberg, will be affected by transportation disruption.
have been identified by US government as part of the state security and spying
apparatus; Viktor Vekselberg is currently under personal sanctions. Sanctions
Clinical trials and regulatory ▪ Western sanctions have been placed on major Russian oligarchs linked to investment firms
that funded biotechs, including Norma Investments, Ervington Investments Ltd, Sarissa
▪ There are currently 761 (+9) ongoing or planned trials located in Ukraine that Capital Management, and Access Bridge Gap Ventures.
may be disrupted, with 30 trials specifically being single-country. Of the single-
country trials, the majority are for COVID-19. ▪ Western sanctions against individuals close to President Putin may affect domestic
pharmaceutical and distribution companies with links to the affected individuals. This will
▪ Clinical trials may also be disrupted in Russia and Belarus, and possibly countries severely impact import of originator medicines and branded generics from Russia’s
surrounding Ukraine due to the suspension of trial sites and drug supply issues in traditional European partners.
conflict regions.
▪ Even if pharma products are excluded from the bans, some companies may choose not to
▪ Karuna Therapeutics has delayed topline data from its Phase III EMERGENT-3 trial trade with Russia due to uncertainty over potential violation of sanctions and the inability to
evaluating KarXT in schizophrenia, due to the region’s worsening conditions. receive payment for services.
Tricida delayed topline data for its Phase III VALOR-CKD trial due to uncertainty
around future participation of Ukrainian subjects in the trial and the potential ▪ Russian venture capital firms have limited investment compared to the US and Western
challenges to collecting and monitoring data from Ukrainian sites. Many other countries, where sanctions imposed on Russian banks may only affect very few early-stage
sponsors with sites in conflict locations may soon be announcing similar issues. drugs’ progression.
154
Source: GlobalData
Clinical trials: Russia and Ukraine
Clinical trials with a location in Ukraine and/or Russia
As of April 4, 2022
Ukraine
Johnson & Johnson 159 Oncology 729
AstraZeneca 137 Planned Central Nervous System 588
4%
Pfizer 128 Cardiovascular 361
Number of Clinical Trials
Ongoing, not Infectious Disease

F. Hoffmann-La Roche 127 304
recruiting
Merck 118 28% Respiratory 303
Boehringer Ingelheim Metabolic Disorders 292

107
Ongoing, Gastrointestinal 274
GlaxoSmithKline 102 recruiting
Immunology 271
Sanofi 95 68%
Hematological Disorders 168
AbbVie 60
Musculoskeletal Disorders 130
Bayer 57
Russia
Novartis 481 Oncology 2,305
F. Hoffmann-La Roche 333 Central Nervous System 1,635
Ongoing,
Number of Clinical Trials
GlaxoSmithKline 297 not Cardiovascular 1,397

AstraZeneca recruiting
290 Infectious Disease 1,394
21%
Johnson & Johnson 263 Ongoing, Metabolic Disorders 939
Merck 260 recruiting
Respiratory 904
46%
Sanofi 240 Immunology 759
Pfizer 223
Planned Gastrointestinal 710
Boehringer Ingelheim 171 33% Musculoskeletal Disorders 570
Bristol-Myers Squibb 169
Hematological Disorders 466
155
Note: Numbers above in bar charts represent the total of trials including all statuses (completed, ongoing, planned, terminated, withdrawn and suspended).
Source: GlobalData
Clinical trial disruptions
Clinical trial disruptions and possible disruptions due to the conflict in Ukraine
As of April 6, 2022
Number of clinical trials disrupted or possibly disrupted by country ▪ There are currently 14 (+3) clinical trials that have specifically detailed
disruption or possible disruption due to the conflict in Ukraine. One
trial is in Phase IV, nine (+1) trials are in Phase III and four (+1) trials are
in Phase II.
▪ Within Europe the greatest number of trials, at 12 (+2), have a location

in Ukraine, followed by Poland with seven (+2), Russia with seven (+2),
Bulgaria with six (+1), Germany with six (+1) and Hungary with six (+2).
▪ Seven (+1) trials may be disrupted due to the conflict and have
reported slower enrollment, suspension of trial sites, and possible
delayed trial completion. Subjects may also be unable to complete
follow-up. Find possible disruptions live on the Pharma Intelligence
Center here.
▪ Seven (+2) trials have been disrupted due to the suspension of trial
sites in Russia and Ukraine and delayed topline data readout. One trial
temporarily closed screening and randomization in both Russia and
Ukraine to preserve in-country study supplies. Find disruptions live on
the Pharma Intelligence Center here.
▪ By therapy area, the largest number of trials at five (+1) are in central
nervous system diseases: major depressive disorder (MDD) or
schizophrenia.
▪ Intra-Cellular Therapies is the only sponsor with more than one trial
disrupted. This company had three trials in Phase III for MDD with the
Note: Multinational trials are counted in each country where they are conducted. drug lumateperone tosylate. 156
Source: GlobalData
Big Pharma scaling back operations in Russia
An increasing number of big pharma companies are pausing investments and scaling back operations in Russia
As of April 6, 2022
▪ While Western companies have come under pressure to cease operations in Russia, the pharma industry has not followed suit as the supply of essential
medicines is required for humanitarian reasons. However, an increasing number of companies have scaled back operations in Russia, including:
Enrolment in Initiation of New Marketing & Russian Sales/Profit for New Trial Site Supply of Non-Essential
Company Investment
Existing Trials Trials Promotional activity Humanitarian Aid Activation Medicines
Novartis Yes Yes Yes Yes
Eli Lilly Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes, including Cialis
Takeda Yes Yes Yes Yes
AbbVie Yes Yes Yes, aesthetics like Botox
Pfizer Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sanofi Yes Yes
Merck & Co Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Bayer Yes Yes
Bristol Myers Squibb Yes Yes Yes
Roche Yes Yes
Johnson & Johnson Yes Yes
Novo Nordisk Yes Yes Yes Yes
GlaxoSmithKline Yes Yes Yes Yes
UCB Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
AstraZeneca Yes Yes Yes
157
Source: GlobalData; EFPIA, Eli Lilly, Takeda, AbbVie, Pfizer, Sanofi, Bayer, Novo Nordisk, AstraZeneca, Endpoints News, Fierce Pharma
Life sciences companies pledging not to invest in Russian business
Companies from across the life sciences industry are pledging to stop all business with Russian companies
As of April 6, 2022
▪ Leaders from five companies, including Ovid Therapeutics, Nkarta Therapeutics, Global Blood Therapeutics, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, and RA Capital, wrote an open letter to
the life sciences industry to cease all business activity with Russia.
▪ They have pledged to:

▪ Cease investments in Russian companies and new investments within its borders
▪ Reject investments from Russian funds
▪ Halt collaborations or service agreements with Russian companies
▪ Halt trade with Russian companies, except for food and medicine
▪ To date, almost 900 co-signatures from over 500 life sciences organizations, including pharma companies, investors, and academia, have been added to the list.
158
Source: GlobalData, Medium (2022)
The Pharma industry’s humanitarian response
Pharma companies are donating essentials medicines and medical supplies
As of April 6, 2022
Essential medicines
▪ As normal supply chains are currently disrupted, many pharma companies are also providing vaccines, antibiotics, pain medicine, and other essential
drugs to Ukraine and neighboring countries. Notable examples include:
Molnupiravir for COVID-19, asthma medication Proventil, antibiotic

Pain medication
Tienam IV/Primaxin and oncology medication Keytruda
150,000 packages of essential antibiotic Rocephin 2-month supply of diabetes and hemophilia drugs
60,000 packages of iron therapies

Antibiotics and other sterile items for ~ 27,000 individuals
1,6 million doses of anti-epileptics and 35,000 daily doses of

Antibiotics, asthma medication, painkillers, and essential childhood antihistamines
vaccines
24 pallets of medicines worth $3 million
Insulin (worth $7.5 million) and baricitinib for COVID-19 (worth $1.8
million) 600,000 packs of antibiotics, painkillers, cardiovascular and
oncology treatments
1.3 million packs of essential medicines worth $11 million
740,000 packs and 420,000 vials of antibiotics and anticoagulants
700,000 doses of antibiotics, antifibrinolytics, and oncology
medicines 300,000 vaccines for diphtheria and tetanus
159
Source: GlobalData, European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA) (2022)
The Pharma industry’s humanitarian response
Pharma companies have also donated financial support to non-governmental organizations (NGOs)
As of April 6, 2022
Financial support - $69 million to date

▪ As of April 6, 2022, 27 pharma companies have donated about $69 million to NGOs, particularly the Red Cross, the United Nations High Commissioner
for Refugees (UNHCR), International Medical Corps, and the International Rescue Committee (IRC). Many have also matched employee donations.
▪ Most companies have donated about 0.01% or less of their 2021 annual earnings.
160
Source: GlobalData, European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA), Gilead (2022)
Note: only includes direct donations and not matched employee donations *estimated based on currency conversion
Shortage of more than 80 drugs reported in Russian pharmacies
A survey of 3,317 doctors, conducted March 14–21 by the professional community Doctors of the Russian Federation found shortages of some
essential drugs, including products with no domestic equivalents
▪ Of the 20 active substances prescribed for cardiovascular and oncology conditions, which accounted for 83.92 million packages sold in 2021, more than a third (37.4%) are now
in short supply.
▪ Shortages are reported across therapeutic groups: anti-inflammatory (children's Nurofen), gastroenterological (Ursofalk), antiepileptic, anticonvulsant drugs (Finlepsin,
Depakine, Diazepam, Carbamazepine, Latuda 56), antidepressants (Paroxetine, Anafranil), and antipsychotics (Rispolept).
▪ Also in short supply are insulin (Levemir, Novorapid, Apidra, Trulicity), other diabetes medication (Ozempik, Saxenda, Metformins, Jardins, Tragenta, Januvia), combined oral
contraceptives, HRT (femoston, estrogel, angelique, divina, climonorm, divigel, yarina, utrozhestan), as well as thyroid and parathyroid gland hormones (Euthyrox, L-thyroxine,
Triiodothyronine, Vigantol).
▪ The survey found 12 foreign drugs for hypertension and arrythmia are missing from pharmacies, two of which—Sanofi's Coaprovel and Stada's Edarbi—have no direct
analogues in Russia.
161
Source: GlobalData
Pharma deals at risk
The Russo-Ukrainian conflict places at-risk investments inside Russia
Targeted sanctions may only impact limited investments for innovator foreign drug assets involving Russian investors
Deal announced Deal status Deal headline Investors Investor Target Deal value
date location ($M)
December 2019 Completed Pipeline Therapeutics Raises USD30 Cleve Pharma Capital; Hadean Ventures AS; RusBio Ventures LP; Sectoral Asset Management Inc; Versant Russia Pipeline 30.00
Million in Series B Financing Venture Management LLC Therapeutics Inc
(United States)
December 2019 Completed Samsara Therapeutics Raises Bruce Barclay; Cambrian Biopharma Inc; Eric Boyle; Kent Wakeford; Kite Ventures Russia Samsara 3.20
USD3.2 Million in Seed Financing Therapeutics Inc
(United States)
September 2019 Completed Amphivena Therapeutics Raises AJU IB Investment Co., Ltd.; Clough Capital Partners, LP; Franklin Berger; Industrial Investors Group; Kaitai Russia Amphivena 62.00
USD62 Million in Series C Financing Capital; Korys Merieux; MPM Capital Inc; NanoDimension Inc; Nawton Ltd; Qiming Venture Partners USA; Therapeutics Inc
Tekla Capital Management LLC (United States)
March 2019 Completed TearSolutions Raises USD6.4 Million Medarva Innovations LLC; Pharmstandard Ventures; UVA LVG Seed Fund; VTC Innovation Fund Russia TearSolutions Inc 6.40
in Venture Financing (United States)
January 2019 Completed Immusoft Raises Additional USD17 Alexandria Venture Investments; Breakout Ventures, L.P.; DEFTA Partners; Mesa Verde Venture Partners LP; Russia Immusoft Corp 17.00
Million in Series B Venture RusBio Ventures LP; Undisclosed (United States)
Financing
January 2018 Completed Acticor Biotech Raises USD2 Million Anaxago SAS; CapDecisif Management SAS; Primer Capital; Undisclosed Russia Acticor Biotech SAS 2.05
in Venture Financing (France)
January 2018 Completed Celtaxsys Raises Funds through Domain Associates LLC; GRA Venture Fund LLC; Invus Group LLC; Lumira Capital Investment Management Inc; Russia Celtaxsys Inc N/A
Series E Financing Masters Capital Management, LLC; RMI Partners (United States)
January 2017 Completed Neon Therapeutics Raises USD70 Access Industries Inc; Fidelity Management & Research Company; Inbio Ventures DC Ltd; Nextech Invest Ltd; Russia BioNTech US Inc 70.00
Million in Series B Financing Partner Fund Management LP; Third Rock Ventures LLC; Wellington Management Company LLP (United States)
Source: GlobalData Pharma Intelligence Center Deals Database
Drug Type: Innovator; Development Stages: Marketed, Withdrawn (Marketed), Archived (Marketed), Pre-Registration, Filing rejected/Withdrawn, Phase III, Phase II, Phase I, Phase 0, IND/CTA Filed, Preclinical, Discovery, Unknown, Inactive, 162
Discontinued; Years: 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017; N/A= Not Disclosed.
Impact on Ukraine
Healthcare spending and pharma sales in Ukraine will see a sharp decline in the upcoming months
The destruction and looting of pharmacies and hesitancy of patients to seek treatment for chronic illnesses will also undermine prescribing activity and market access
Healthcare spending Duration of impact on pharma sales
▪ The April 2022 Healthcare Forecast update will reflect a sharp decline in the ▪ Assuming a quick resolution of the conflict, pharmaceutical donations are likely to pour
growth rate for total healthcare spending in real terms, driven by downward into Ukraine, but this will not prevent a decline in the domestic pharmaceutical market
revisions to GDP growth, which is a key component of the health spending size as donated medicines will not count as part of domestic sales.
forecast. The public share of healthcare spending is likely to decline but will
likely be compensated for by external donations. Market access
▪ Health system infrastructure destruction, population displacement, and a mass ▪ Access to reimbursable medicines will deteriorate as Ukraine’s fledgling reimbursement
exodus or killing of medical staff will disrupt delivery of health services and system is dealt a serious blow. Amid the factors contributing to this will be lack of public
access to medicines for the foreseeable future. funding, as money normally dedicated to drug reimbursement is diverted to support
the war effort. Individuals eligible for access to reimbursable medicines may struggle to
▪ The duration of the conflict will be a key determinant of the magnitude of prove eligibility given population displacement and damage to Ukraine’s administrative
healthcare impact, but even if the conflict were to terminate tomorrow, the buildings, with paper medical records particularly prone to destruction.
damage in terms of infrastructure and population displacement has been done.
▪ People may be hesitant to attend medical facilities due to the risk of Russian military
Pharma sales strikes on hospitals, which, in combination with physician casualties, displacement, and
emigration, will severely undermine prescribing activity. Even if reimbursable medicines
▪ The growth rate in pharmaceutical sales in Ukraine is expected to be revised are prescribed, Ukrainians may be unable to fill prescriptions as some pharmacies have
sharply down in the April 2022 update of the forecast due to the projected been destroyed or looted.
downward revision in healthcare spending growth, of which pharmaceutical
sales are a component. ▪ Utilization of certain categories of drugs can, however, accelerate as they are driven by
war-led demand. For example, sales of iodine tablets reportedly increased sharply on
▪ Destruction of roads and bridges will compromise the domestic distribution of the first day of the invasion. Other medicines that are likely to see a sharp rise in
medicines, while damage to pharmacies and looting will adversely affect retail demand are intensive care drugs and products used in first aid. Some supplies of those
sales. Flights to Ukraine are continuing, but destruction or Russian occupation are likely to be coming from international donations, however, and will thus not count
of airports or creation of a future no-fly zone will prevent the landing of civil towards domestic pharmaceutical sales.
aviation planes carrying medicines.
163
Source: GlobalData
Impact on Russia
Impact on healthcare spending and pharma sales in Russia limited in the short term but adverse effects will accelerate over time
Pharmaceutical imports will stall; Russian pharmaceutical exports, limited as they are, will also suffer
Healthcare spending Cashflow issues to undermine on demand for medicines in retail pharmacies
▪ The short-term impact on healthcare spending in Russia will be more muted ▪ Some people are already unable to pay with debit or credit cards of banks subject to
compared to Ukraine but will accelerate over time as Russia’s ability to spend on international sanctions after they were cut off from Visa, Mastercard, Apple Pay, and
healthcare is undermined by military spending imperatives and the severe Google Pay. While Russians may still pay cash for medicines, cash unavailability in
economic impact from unprecedented sanctions. ATMs and daily withdrawal limits will restrict access.
▪ While Russia’s Central Bank is attempting to address the sharp domestic Pharmaceutical supply disruption
currency devaluation against the USD and EUR via doubling the interest rate and
implementing measures to stop foreign currency flight from the country, a run ▪ Drug shortages are already evident as Russians attempt to stockpile medicines,
on the banks cannot be ruled out. while several pharmaceutical manufacturers have stopped supply of non-
essential medicines to Russia.
▪ Economic sanctions will adversely affect healthcare spending via the impact on
GDP, but also through potential government inability to disburse funds ▪ Air transport—commonly used for expensive drugs—is blocked as the EU, US, UK
domestically as the central bank can no longer access most of its foreign and Canada banned Russian-linked aircraft from their airspace, with reciprocal bans
reserves. from Russia.
▪ The inability to access the SWIFT system to pay for the procurement of medical ▪ Trade flow via shipping containers is also disrupted after Maersk, Ocean Network
equipment or pharmaceutical supplies imported from other countries will also Express and Hapag-Lloyd stopped accepting bookings for cargo to and from Russia.
adversely affect healthcare spending. Medicines are meant to be excluded from these restrictions but ceasing
transportation of most other goods inevitably undermines the economies of scale
Pharma sales available to companies seeking to ship medicines to Russia via container routes.
▪ Impact on the pharmaceutical market is likely to be particularly severe as Russia COVID-19 vaccine supply impact
remains dependent on pharmaceutical imports. Indian companies are already
concerned about Russia's ability to pay for existing orders. The impact will ▪ Russian COVID-19 vaccine exports will stall as the head of the Russian Direct
depend on whether certain Russian banks remain able to access the SWIFT Investment Fund (RDIF) is on the sanctions list. Gamaleya (Russia)’s Sputnik V and
system to process payments for pharmaceutical imports and exports. Sputnik Light vaccines, distributed by the RDIF, will be affected, but they account for
a relatively small share of global COVID-19 vaccine supply. The impact should be
164
Source: GlobalData muted if their distribution is restored quickly using a new marketing partner.
Impact by Sector
Power
Power
Equity indices are witnessing a dip on account of the Russia-Ukraine war; other indices seem stable for now

250
200 200
200
150 150
150
100 100
100
50 50 50
0
0 0
50 INDICES
50.00
Equity 4.1% 6.4% 2.0%
25 Jobs -0.9% -0.2% 7.7%
25.00
M&A - -13.3% -35.0%
- 0
SENTIMENTS
-25
News - 2.2% 0.7%
(25.00)
Filings - - 17.4%
(50.00) -50
Source: GlobalData
Power: geopolitics impact assessment
Sanctions against Russia will result in a short-term change in the fuel supply scenario and generation mix in Europe
Revenue predictions Energy price impact
• BP is offloading its 20% stake in the Russian energy company Rosneft. Shell has • Crude oil prices, after surging to almost $140 per barrel due to the ban on Russian
announced its exit from its joint ventures with Russian state energy firm imports by the Western Bloc, settled at below $110 per barrel due to a rise in COVID
Gazprom. The company will also end its involvement in the Nord Stream 2 cases and strict lockdowns in China, which is the largest importer of oil.
pipeline project, in which it holds a 10% stake worth $1 billion.
• The push for energy independence might give coal and nuclear power a new
• In addition, Shell, Equinor, and Exxon Mobil have also announced that they will lease of life. Extending the lifetimes of nuclear and coal-fired power plants is one
exit their shareholdings and joint ventures of Russian projects. Some power route European countries could follow to ensure energy independence.
companies that have decided to stop all commercial activities in Russia include
Vestas, Siemens Energy AG, Orsted, Vattenfall, Fortum, and Uniper.
• Despite the price volatility in the wholesale market, Iberdrola SA, the Sanctions impact
Spanish utility, has announced that it is freezing the price of its current fixed-
price contracts with its customers. • The US and the UK have announced new energy sanctions against Russia: the US is
banning all imports of Russian oil and gas and the UK announced it would phase
• After stopping commercial activities in early March, Vestas decided to completely out Russian oil imports by the end of 2022. The impact of sanctions is already being
withdraw from Russia over Moscow’s incursion into Ukraine. It plans to halt its felt with skyrocketing prices of oil as well as other commodities.
four wind farm projects with a total capacity of 253 MW, which have been under
development since September 2021. • The EU is working in coordination with the G7 to impose additional sanctions on
Russia, which includes a ban on the import of coal. The proposed ban will impact
• Gazprom, as specified in the Executive Order of the Russian Federation, has Moscow’s annual business, which is worth around EUR4 billion (GBP3.3 billion) from
officially asked foreign counterparties to make payments for Russian gas in ruble the EU.
from April 1.

Power: geopolitics impact assessment (Contd.)
OECD Europe accounts for 74% share of Russia’s gas exports and the region accounted for 32% share of Russia’s coal exports in 2021
Supply chain & demand disruption
• OECD Europe accounts for 32% of Russia’s total coal exports in 2021.
• Around 14 percent of all global coal briquette exports are from Russia, making it
the world’s third-largest exporter of coal. A prolonged Russia-Ukraine crisis will
disrupt the global coal supply, pushing up electricity and overall energy prices.
• European companies are suffering yet more strain on supply chains already
under pressure from the COVID-19 pandemic as the conflict in Ukraine leads to
growing shortages of key components.
• Russia is the world's third-largest producer of nickel. The war will lead to
shortages and an increase in prices, which in turn will hit EV manufacturers and
energy storage companies.
• OECD Europe accounts for 74% share in Russia’s gas exports in 2021.
• EU officials have reached out to major gas exporters such as the US, Norway, Qatar,
Azerbaijan, Algeria, and Egypt to secure alternatives to the Russian pipelines. In
addition, the EU will explore alternative energy options such as biomethane, clean
hydrogen, and renewable energy through its policy programs.
• Russia’s Gazprom continues to provide steady supply of gas via Ukraine. Gas
shipments stood at 108.4 million cubic meters on April 6.
• In order to maintain and safeguard gas supply in the country, Germany has taken over
a local unit of Russian natural gas giant Gazprom. The German ministry of economy
said that Gazprom Germania violated foreign trade law.
Power: top 20 companies' exposure in Russian market
Company name Active capacity (MW) - Russia Active capacity (MW) - total Exposure (%)
Gazprom 34,395 34,519 99.6%

RusHydro 33,043 33,548 98.5%
State Atomic Energy Corporation Rosatom 30,190 30,190 100%
Inter RAO UES 26,368 29,262 90.1%
Fortum Corp 18,153 49,734 36.5%
En+ Group plc 17,877 17,877 100%
Renova Group 14,720 14,720 100%
Siberian Generating Co 12,739 12,739 100%
Enel SpA 5,702 83,161 6.9%
Lukoil Oil Co 4,778 4,778 100%
Tatenergo 4,506 4,506 100%
Boguchanskaya HPP 2,997 2,997 100%
Territorial Generating Co No 2 2,994 2,994 100%
Rosneft Oil Co 2,722 2,722 100%
Quadra - Power Generation 2,431 2,431 100%
Sibur Holding 2,400 2,400 100%
Kuzbassenergo AO 1,815 1,815 100%
MMC Norilsk Nickel 1,111 1,111 100%
Tatneft 724 724 100%
Evraz Plc 600 600 100%

Power: top 20 companies' exposure in Ukrainian market
Company name Active capacity (MW) - Ukraine Active capacity (MW) - total Exposure (%)
DTEK BV 12,706 12,706 100%

NNEGC Energoatom 8,785 8,785 100%
PJSC Centrenergo 7,695 7,775 99%
UkrHydroEnergo Open Joint Stock Company 5,588 5,588 100%
Donbasenergo 2,890 2,890 100%
Kyivteploenergo 1,200 1,200 100%
Elementum Energy Ltd 573 573 100%
PSC Kharkiv CHPP-5 540 540 100%
Activ Solar GmbH 536 536 100%
Scatec ASA 324 2,104 15.4%
AMK OJSC 300 300 100%
Kremenchutska TPP 300 300 100%
Severodonetsk CHP 260 260 100%
Naftogaz of Ukraine 237 237 100%
Cherkassy Khimvolokno 230 230 100%
TehNova 210 210 100%
Ukrinterenergo 200 200 100%
Wind parks of Ukraine 198 198 100%
Vindkraft Kalanchak LLC 164 164 100%
Euro-Reconstruction LLC 160 160 100%

Impact by Sector
Retail
Retail
Crisis has already impacted retailer share prices negatively
Jobs and sentiment still buoyed by relatively good news on COVID-19, but Ukraine crisis may already be holding up retail deals
250
200 200
200
150 150
150
100 100
100
50 50 50
0
0 0
50.00 50 INDICES
Equity 1.4% 4.4% -5.3%
25.00 25 Jobs -2.7% -1.1% 1.2%
M&A - -4.1% -11.3%
- 0
SENTIMENTS
-25
News - 4.0% 3.6%
(25.00)
Filings - - 10.3%
(50.00) -50
Source: GlobalData
Retail impact assessment
Retail has been devasted in Ukraine and devaluation of the ruble will cause rapid inflation in Russia. But the retail impact not limited to those countries
Energy price increases will push up shop prices and decrease consumer spending power throughout Europe
Industry predictions International retailer exodus from Russia
▪ In terms of retail, Ukraine, with spending at EUR38.3 billion (GBP35.9 billion) in 2021, is ▪ Many international retailers in Russia have closed their stores there. Relations between Russia
one of the smallest markets in Europe. Russia on the other hand was the fifth and the West will take a long time to heal, and European and US retailers are unlikely to reopen
largest European retail market in 2021 at EUR360.1 billion (GBP337.2 billion) and for some time, particularly now that Yevgeni Fedorov, a deputy in the State Duma, the lower
was forecast to become the third largest after Germany and France by 2025. house of Russia's parliament, has proposed a ten-year ban on western companies that have
suspended their operations in Russia. While those retailers would have feared a consumer
▪ Retail in both Ukraine and Russia will be hit hard by the impact of this conflict. Ukraine’s backlash if they had not pulled out, the problems of getting stock in and out of Russia, as well as
economy has been shattered, and the devaluation of the ruble means that retail in Russia payment issues, had begun to make operations there extremely difficult. Russian retailers will
is forecast to fall by 29% in 2022 in USD terms. It will also impact retail in the rest of benefit from the removal of Western rivals, but of course, will be unable to source many
Europe, unless it is settled quickly. international products, and will be hard hit by the economic issues affecting their customers.
Impact on consumers ▪ There has been a media focus on the Mulliez family of France whose holding company
Association Familiale Mulliez has a majority interest in hardware chain Leroy Merlin, grocery
▪ Consumers across Europe will feel the repercussions of this action financially, as well as giant Auchan, and sports retailer Decathlon. The former two companies continue to operate in
to their confidence, the latter of which was on the rise as the COVID pandemic subsides. Russia, while Decathlon eventually closed its 60 stores at the end of March citing supply
Gas and oil prices have already risen and will keep on rising, and increases in prices of conditions had caused store operations to be suspended. This has drawn outrage from the
commodities such as cereals, which both countries export, will hit food bills, stoking Ukraine government, which tweeted a photo of a destroyed store in Ukraine and added: “Leroy
household inflation yet further. Merlin became first company in the world to finance the bombing of its own stores and killing its
own employees. Inhumane , harrowing greed.” A leaked email from the retailer allegedly
Supply chain & demand disruption showed that it was looking for increased supplies for its Russian stores as it was benefitting from
increased demand due to international rivals closing their stores.
▪ On the supply side, retailers will be hit by supply and operational costs as well as the
general impact on demand. In both Russia and Ukraine, the share major international ▪ The ability of retailers to control franchised operations has come into focus (just as it has in
retailers hold of the markets is only 6–7%, but some are major players in these markets, foodservice operators). Spar is a major grocery retailer in Russia, but its stores are
such as Auchan and Inditex. independently owned and will continue to operate. UK retailer Marks & Spencer also
has franchised stores in Russia, but these are owned by a Turkish company, which M&S says it
▪ As the battleground for Russian aggression, Ukrainian retail will be severely impacted and will no longer supply with goods. The M&S stores remain open though.
for some time, but economic and financial sanctions have been severe and will have a
major impact on the Russian retail environment.
▪ Western retailers have delisted Russian brands, but few have a significant profile. Little of173
the vodka sold in the UK, for example, is made in Russia. One that is, Russian Standard, has been
removed by several major supermarkets.
International retailers in Russia have withdrawn and local operators will be hit by sanctions and supply issues
Russia will lose its place as the fifth largest retail market if the conflict continues
Europe share of total retail expenditure 2021 by country Ukraine and Russia leading retailers by total retail expenditure
11.1% Ukraine top 15 retailers 2020

Republic of
Ireland, 1.0%
Germany, 16.3% Ukraine, 1.0%
2.6% 2.4%
1.6% 1.3% 1.0% 0.9%
Sweden, 2.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%
Romania, 2.3%
Belgium, 2.4%
Switzerland, 2.5%
France, 13.2%
Netherlands, 3.6%
Poland, 3.6% Russia top 15 retailers 2020

7.7%
5.9%
Turkey, 3.8%
United Kingdom, 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0%
10.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4%
Spain, 6.1%
Italy, 9.9% Russia, 9.5%
174
Source: GlobalData. Note: Retailer sales above and on the following slide include sales tax. Country data is based on a combination of company data, retailer feedback and analyst estimates.
The Russian retail market will sink by 29% in value this year (in USD terms)
High inflation in 2023 and a continually weakened ruble makes bounce back unlikely
Current retail forecasts for Russia vs pre war forecasts, food and non-food ($m) Purchasing power of Russians greatly reduced
350,000
▪ Inflation of 20% in 2022 and a weakening
of GDP means that the spending power of
300,000 Russians will be greatly reduced. Volumes
will be hit hard.
-37%
250,000
▪ The essential nature of food means that
higher prices will compensate for lower
200,000 volumes, with the market increasing by
-40% 9% in ruble terms in 2022. However, in
150,000 USD terms, the food market will drop by
27%. Our forecasts for the size of the
market in 2025 have dropped in USD
100,000 terms by 37%.
50,000 ▪ In non-food, the market will increase in

ruble terms by 2%, but fall 32% in USD.
Our forecasts for the size of the non-food
0
market in 2025 have dropped in USD
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 terms by 40%.
Current forecast - food Current forecast - non food
Pre war forecast - food Pre war forecast - non food
175
Source: GlobalData
The international retailers most affected by the crisis
7 April 2022
Rank Retailer group Main brands Sales in Russia Sales in Ukraine Total sale in Russia + Russia & Ukraine Continuing in Russia?
(EUR M) (EUR M) Ukraine (EUR M) sales as % of global
1 Adeo Groupe Leroy Merlin 4,460 130 4,590 18.1% Stated it plans to continue operating
2 Groupe Auchan SA Auchan 3,780 651 4,431 8.8% Still operating
3 SPAR International BV SPAR 2,598 33 2,631 6.5% Stores independently owned, staying open
4 Inter Ikea Systems BV IKEA 1,668 - 1,668 3.8% Closed operations March 3rd
5 Globus Holding GmbH & Co Globus 1,435 - 1,435 18.4% Stated it plans to continue operating
Inditex, Industria de Diseño Zara, Bershka,
6 1,195 162 1,357 6.1% Closed operations on March 5th
Textil SA Massimo Dutti
7 Amazon.com, Inc. Amazon 745 126 871 0.5% Halted shipments to Russia from March 9th
Tengelmann
8 OBI 851 - 851 6.6% Closed operation on March 7th
Warenhandelsgesellschaft
9 Apple Inc Apple 825 - 825 2.0% Halted all product sales from March 2nd
Announced plans to shut service stations
10 Royal Dutch Shell Plc Shell 546 123 669 4.8%
on March 9th
11 H&M Hennes & Mauritz AB H&M 625 27 652 3.2% Closed operations on March 2nd
12 S Group Prisma 600 - 600 6.0% Closed operations on March 4th
13 Global Fashion Group Lamoda 507 52 559 26.3% Plans to continue operating
14 Euronics International Ltd Euronics 551 - 551 5.7% Operations suspended
15 Nike, Inc. Nike 512 - 512 3.0% Closed operations March 3rd
Suspended exports from Russia, “assessing
16 Avon Products Inc Avon 374 22 396 12.0%
shipments to Russia”
17 adidas Group Adidas 344 38 382 12.2% Closed operations March 9th
18 Decathlon Group Decathlon 352 4 356 2.9% Suspended operations March 29th
19 LPP SA Reserved 259 69 328 22.3% Closed operations March 7th
176
20 Asos Plc ASOS 267 11 278 6.5% Suspended sales on March 2nd
Source: GlobalData Retail Market Analyzer 2020
International retailers staying in Russia
Top 9 international retailers by annual sales that are still operating in Russia
7 April 2022
Adeo Groupe (Leroy Merlin) 4,460 17.6%
Groupe Auchan (Atak, Auchan, Auchan City, My Auchan) 3,780 7.5%
Spar 2,598 6.4%
Globus 1,435 18.4%
Euronics 551 5.7%
Global Fashion Group (Lamoda) 507 23.8%
Avon 374 11.3%
Herbalife 269 4.2%
Otto Group (Bonprix) 261 2.6%
The chart shows the 2020 Russian sales (EUR m) of the top 9 international retailer groups which are still operating in Russia, as of 7 April 2022. The figures in the orange boxes show the retailer group’s Russian
sales as a share of its total global sales in 2020. Source: GlobalData Retail Market Analyzer.
177
Impact by Sector
Sport
Sport: impact assessment
Russia has been a key fixture in the business of sport over the past decade, with many brands embedded into sporting governing bodies and leagues
Russia has hosted major events over the past decade, including the FIFA World Cup and Winter Olympic Games
Revenue impact Sanctions
▪ Over $493 million worth of sponsorship agreements with Russian brands are now ▪ Major governing bodies such as the International Olympic Committee (IOC),
under threat, leaving a significant gap in the sports industry finances, which were International Paralympic Committee (IPC), FIFA, and UEFA have all banned Russia
already under strain due to the COVID-19 pandemic. from participating in events organized by those bodies.
▪ 31 separate sporting events were due to take place in Russia over the next three ▪ The IOC moved to issue guidance to all sporting federations considering the
years, including world championships for swimming and ice hockey. This is in invasion of Ukraine, banning all Russian and Belorussian teams and athletes from
addition to annual sporting events such as the Russian F1 Grand Prix. The economic all competitions.
impact is yet unknown, but sports tourism will certainly be a long-term casualty.
▪ Following this lead, FIFA and UEFA announced that Russian teams will be excluded
▪ Russia pays an estimated $50 million as a hosting fee for the rights to stage the from competitions, meaning that Russia will not be taking part in the 2022
Formula One Russian Grand Prix annually in Sochi. Formula One moved decisively to Women's European Championships taking place in England this summer.
remove the race from the calendar for the 2022 season, with numerous drivers
(including World Champion Max Verstappen) saying he would not participate should ▪ Russia have been expelled from World Cup qualifying by FIFA. However, Poland,
the race go ahead. They have since gone further and terminated the agreement the Czech Republic, and Sweden had all already issued statements stating they
completely, meaning there will be no race in Russia until such time as a new would be unwilling to share a field with Russia, under any name, in the upcoming
contract is signed. World Cup qualifying play offs.
▪ There are currently 87 active media rights deals that are in the process of being ▪ Russian Oligarch Roman Abramovich has been sanctioned by the UK government,
terminated, including the English Premier League’s deal in Russia. Many of these meaning Chelsea FC has been impacted. The club is operating under a special
media rights deals will be territory specific, meaning they will be unable to be license, meaning that it can fulfill fixtures but cannot sell tickets, merchandise, or
resold, resulting in further losses for sporting rights holders. renew player contracts. This will likely extend to player sales, meaning their
GBP28 million a month wage bill could lead to the club being put into
administration by the end of the season.

Sport: sponsorship deals at risk
Russian company sponsorship deals at risk internationally
Value of sponsorship deals, by company Volume of Sponsorship

Other, 8 Deals, by Industry
Gazprom 354.57
Parimatch 45.78
Uralkali 40
USM Holdings 39 Financial, 4 Betting, 21
Aeroflot 34.94
($million)
Winline 31.5
Kaspersky 12.1 Technology, 6
Fonbet 6
Other 10.04
Energy, 6
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400
International company sponsorship deals at risk in Russia

Value of sponsorship deals, by company Other, 7 Volume of Sponsorship
Deals, by Industry
adidas $46 Technology, 3
Volkswagen $20 Apparel, 21
Energy, 5
Nike $12
Lacoste $9
PUMA $8
Financial, 7
SK Lubricants $8 ($million)
Viessmann $5
Joma $4
CCM $4 Automotive, 8
Coca-Cola $4
Other
Consumer, 16 180
$31
Source: GlobalData
Sport: international sporting event cancellations/postponements in Russian market
A total of 34 international sporting events are scheduled to be hosted in Russia. The international swimming federation (FINA) is the most impacted
Federation Sport Active Location Status Federation Sport Active Location Status
Aquatics FINA Artistic Swimming World Series 2022 Kazan Cancelled Soccer UEFA Champions League Final 2022 St. Petersburg Moved
UEFA
Aquatics FINA Diving World Series 2022 Kazan Cancelled Soccer UEFA Super Cup 2023 Kazan Pending
FINA World Junior Swimming Championships ATP Tennis ATP Tour: St. Petersburg Open St. Petersburg Moved
Aquatics Kazan Moved
2022
FINA
FINA World Swimming Championships (25m) EUBC Boxing EUBC Women’s Boxing Championships 2022 Ulan-Ude Pending
Aquatics Kazan Pending
2022
FIA Motor Racing Formula 1 Russian Grand Prix 2022 Sochi Cancelled
Aquatics European Swimming Championships 2024 Kazan Pending
FIDE Chess Chess Olympiad 2022 Moscow Moved
Aquatics FINA World Championships 2025 Kazan Pending
FIE Fencing FIE World Cup TBC Moved
University Sport FISU University World Cup Powerlifting Moscow Moved
FIM Motorcycling MXGP of Russia 2022 Novomikhaylovsky Cancelled
University Sport FISU University World Cup Rugby Sevens Kazan Moved
FISU FISU World University Championship Waterski IBA Boxing IBA Global Boxing Cup 2022 Various Pending
University Sport Minsk Moved
& Wakeboard
IJF Judo IJF Grand Slam, Kazan 2022 Kazan Cancelled
University Sport FISU World University Games 2023 Ekaterinburg Pending
ISSF Shooting ISSF World Championship 2023 Ignatovo Pending
Gymnastics FIG Acrobatics World Cup Oktyabrskiy Cancelled
Multi-Sport
SOI Special Olympics World Winter Games 2022 Kazan Pending
FIG Gymnastics FIG Trampoline World Cup St. Petersburg Cancelled Games
European Rhythmic Gymnastics Championships UWW Wrestling UWW World Championships 2023 Krasnoyarsk Pending
Gymnastics Moscow Suspended
2023 World
Triathlon Ironman 70.3 St. Petersburg St. Petersburg Cancelled
Volleyball Volleyball Nations League - Week 3 (women) Ufa Moved Triathlon
FIVB Volleyball Volleyball Nations League - Week 3 (men) Kemerovo Moved

FIVB Men's Volleyball World Championship
Volleyball Various Moved
2022
Ice Hockey IIHF World Junior Championship 2023 Novosibirsk Moved
IIHF
Ice Hockey IIHF World Championship 2023 St. Petersburg Pending
ISU European Speed Skating Championships
Ice Skating Kolomna Pending
2024
ISU
ISU European Short Track Speed Skating
Ice Skating Sochi Pending
Championships 2024
181
Source: GlobalData
Impact by Sector
Technology & Telecoms

Technology
The sector may see some impact from economic uncertainties and rising tensions

250
200 200
200
150 150
150
100 100
100
50 50 50
0
0 0
50 INDICES
50.00
Equity 1.4% 4.4% -5.3%
25 Jobs -2.7% -1.1% 1.2%
25.00
M&A - -4.1% -11.3%
- 0
SENTIMENTS
-25
News - 4.0% 3.6%
(25.00)
Filings - - 10.3%
(50.00) -50
Source: GlobalData
Impact by Sector
Enterprise Technology & Services

Enterprise technology & services: impact assessment
The Russia-Ukraine conflict is putting the spotlight on the enterprise technology and services sector
Effects on the industry will become more apparent as the world experiences a ripple effect, applying economic pressure to an already stressed global economy and challenged workforce
Revenue impact Supply chain & demand disruption
▪ The overall uncertainly that the hostilities in Ukraine have created will slow purchasing in the ▪ For Ukraine, this is devastating in the near term. If Russia installs a new governing body,
IT sector overall, especially if the conflict is prolonged and the sanctions remain in place. there will be a major disruption in services (not just IT). This will impact both service
providers and clients. Facilities are likely to be damaged or destroyed. At this point, it is
▪ Cybersecurity sector stocks have risen sharply as a result of the geopolitical tension, with unclear what the physical impact will be on adjacent countries.
exponential increases in cyberattacks on government establishments and enterprises in
sectors such as finance. Market disruption in the next year will continue, thus maintaining
▪ The ripple effect of country embargos, technology disruptions, and professional shortages
and increasing cybersecurity stock value due to global cyber threats.
will disrupt the technology and software supply chain in the near to medium term.
▪ Technology engagement support may need to be transferred to employees outside of the
▪ The neighboring Baltic nations and other countries close to the conflict area are on high
Eastern European region, and quickly. IT solution providers who are not able to pivot quickly
alert, with valid concerns over their citizens' immediate well-being. Like Ukraine, these
may see a near-term service delivery impact, which could lead to a longer-term revenue
countries represent significant numbers of highly educated tech professionals.
decline.
Workforce strain
Sanctions
▪ The ultimate effect of sanctions, in particular the technology embargoes put in place on ▪ Of the hundreds of thousands of IT professionals across Russia, the vast majority are
Russia have yet to be felt. But ultimately, Russia is dependent on the outside world for most software developers, workers whose lives and contributions are immediately impacted by
technology, and companies who do a lot of business with Russia will suffer. the conflict.
▪ In the very near term, Russia may be impacted by not being able to access newly frozen ▪ Ukraine represents an important destination for IT outsourcing and tapping the country's
assets. An unprecedented international financial response to the invasion of Ukraine could technology talent pool, primarily for software developers whose development, integration,
cripple Russia’s ability to attack future targets. and consulting services are now greatly reduced.
▪ The economic sanctions will have ripple effects that could help ease the supply chain crisis, ▪ The situation in Eastern Europe is fluid; IT consultants, developers, and contractors in the
with resources slated for Russia repurposed (but not in the next quarter or two). region may find work challenging or impossible if the current situation escalates further or
crosses more borders.
▪ Large initiatives like 5G will be slowed or stopped in Russia and unfortunately in Ukraine as
well, especially if the latter comes under full Russian control. ▪ At the same time, immediate need for additional resources for particularly critical IT
disciplines (including cybersecurity) is increasing.
185
Source: GlobalData
The open internet is challenged by fragmentation into different technospheres
Each model is shaped by its own set of cultural, economic, and political assumptions and with divergent approaches to governing the digital space
• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

is accelerating the
fragmentation of the
internet into separate
spheres
• These techno-spheres
support competing visions
of how technology
standards and regulation
should be implemented

The Russian conflict risks accelerating the splinternet
• Russia is disconnecting from the digital world

and accelerating the creation of a sovereign
internet
• It has only blocked services so far (Facebook,

Twitter) rather than the technologies or
agreements that enable the global internet
• But it could encourage a ‘Balkanization’ of the

internet, with a number of national or regional
networks using incompatible technologies
• Russia’s increasing isolation is likely to hamper

the country’s tech industry for a long time, as
Western sanctions will cut off imports of critical
products and services
Source: Freedom of the net, fredomhouse.org 187

The unthinkable split: rival technology standards
The rise of a new ‘silicon curtain’
• Technology standards are the enabler of worldwide business, communication, and

wider cooperation in the world today
• It is possible that the current geopolitical climate, highlighted by the Russian-

Ukraine war, could lead to a long-term split of technology standards between
western and eastern nations.
• The economic sanctions that have restricted Huawei, ZTE, and now all of Russia from
advanced technology are a serious matter of national security for countries that may
fall under similar sanctions.
• Russia has already decreed that it has lifted IP restrictions—including those on

patents on entities that own them—if they are registered in countries that Russia
considers hostile
• In a theoretical technological split, if the geopolitical situation gets out of control, it

will take considerable time and effort for eastern nations to recreate existing
advanced technology, at minimum of five years in a best-case scenario
• Technological standards enable modern society and advancement. A standards

schism would be harmful not only to all economies in the long term, but also
harmful to humanity’s overall advancement.
Source: GlobalData
188
Growth in cyber-attacks will drive the need for better enterprise risk management
• There's been exponential increases in cybersecurity attacks across global

enterprises covering multinational corporates, small medium enterprises
(SMBs), and government establishments, further influenced by
geopolitics.
• Finance has experienced an exponential rise in cyberattacks over the last

four years. Developments like Russia's recent invasion of Ukraine further
impacts geopolitical order with a high number of DDoS attacks on both
Russian and Ukrainian targets, including the Ukrainian Defense Ministry
and Ukrainian banks PrivatBank and Oschadbank.
• Cybersecurity is now a board level issue and in the future cybersecurity

providers will be required to act more as a ‘trusted advisor’ to the board,
participating in cyber security risk governance and steering committees.
• The increased rate of new product and M&A activity is confusing

enterprise CISO mindset in making informed decisions on their security.
Providers must consider these wider enterprise implications and
consider better vertical alignment and portfolio simplification in the
future.
• Assessing the risks to the enterprise customer as part of the security risk
strategy is crucial to successfully address future cyberattacks. Enterprise
cybersecurity risk strategies must take into consideration the impact on • GlobalData, Enterprise Technology Services, 2022
operations, company performance, brand, customer and shareholder
value. 189
Impact by Sector
Telecom: Consumer Services & Technology

Telecom: consumer services & technology impact assessment
Warfare in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia and Belarus will mean significant contraction of the countries' telecom and technology sectors
Sanctions will mean the significant contraction of Russian and Belorussian technology and telecoms sectors, and warfare will have similar effect in Ukraine
Revenue impact Supply chain & demand disruption
▪ In Ukraine, ongoing warfare disrupts Ukrainian telcos' revenue flow, damages their ▪ Most technology exports to Ukraine not related to the war effort, and most
infrastructure, and prevents them from maintaining their network and facilities. technology exports to Russia and Belarus, were or will be halted, resulting in
Significant network outages are reported in areas where major attacks significant sales contractions in affected countries.
are happening and occupying Russian forces have been said to damage or
disconnect network infrastructure on purpose in some areas of Ukraine. ▪ Some international wholesale carriers (Cogent, Lumen) have disconnected their
networks in Russia; others are said to be pondering similar actions.
▪ Due to increasing inflation, Russian operators' services revenue will drop (in
dollar/euro terms). This will significantly affect their profitability, as most of their ▪ Global technology supply chains will be somewhat affected by drops in neon and
CAPEX and some of the OPEX is dollar and euro denominated. palladium shipments, causing price hikes on these commodities. Inaccessibility of
both countries' sizeable software developer workforces may affect some
▪ Telecom infrastructure spending in Russia and Ukraine will contract significantly companies’ software development supply chains, but the magnitude of these
due to warfare in Ukraine and sanctions on technology exports to Russia. effects is hard to measure.
Sanctions ▪ Demand for telecom services will increase in both countries. The need for non-
terrestrial broadband connectivity has increased in Ukraine, bringing forward
▪ The US and other countries have imposed sanctions on technology exports to Starlink satellite broadband service activation in the country.
Russia. The most important one is the US semiconductor sales ban, which prevents
exports of semiconductors and products containing them to Russia.
▪ Financial sanctions will affect trade in technology goods significantly, with Russian
telcos, enterprises, and channel partners facing difficulties in paying for goods.
▪ Sanctions will also force most Western technology companies to reduce their
presence in, or exposure to, the Russian market.

Impact by Sector
Travel & Tourism

Travel & tourism
Conflict is likely to hinder the recent recovery in the sector
Sentiment and jobs improving as travel outlook improves, but this may reverse if the crisis persists

400
200 250
300 200
150
200 150
100
100
100
50
50
0
0 0
50.00 50 INDICES
Equity 2.4% 8.4% -0.8%
25.00 25 Jobs -1.5% -2.9% -11.0%
M&A - -41.5% -55.6%
- 0
SENTIMENTS
-25
News - 3.4% 4.7%
(25.00)
Filings - - 14.8%
(50.00) -50
Source: GlobalData
Travel & tourism: impact assessment
Conflict in Ukraine will delay the global recovery of the travel and tourism industry, which is still feeling the effects of the pandemic
The conflict in Ukraine has created a ripple effect across the industry that will hinder recovery even further, several sectors may now be starting to feel the impact of this crisis
Revenue impact Sanctions

▪ Due to sanctions, Russia’s flagship airline Aeroflot has announced the halt of all its
▪ Airlines across the globe will continue to be financially impacted by the crisis international flights, except to Belarus, and the country’s second-biggest airline, S7,
for as long as it continues. The EU and the UK have already imposed a blanket has also suspended its international flights.
travel ban on Russian aircraft using their airspace, and Russia has responded with
like for like restrictions. Many European airlines will now have to take longer ▪ Many non-Russian airlines are having to take diversions to avoid flying through
routes to avoid flying over Russia. This requires more fuel, the price of which has Russian airspace. Closed airspace translates to longer flight times, increased fuel
become incredibly difficult to predict. Oil prices have surged, and look set for a usage, more pilot hours, higher costs, and consequently higher fares. Higher fares
period of volatility, making cost management extremely difficult. Air France-KLM could further impact the recovery of many airlines with global operations.
stated that the outbreak of a full-scale conflict would put tremendous pressure ▪ Cathay Pacific has planned the world’s longest passenger flight by rerouting its New
on oil prices and will likely disrupt the group’s plans for recovery this year. York to Hong Kong service over the Atlantic. This is due to avoiding Russian airspace.
▪ Wizz Air slashed its growth target in March after stopping the sale of flights to ▪ Locked-in agreements with third-party franchisees in Russia are causing a headache
and from Russia and Ukraine as the conflict between the two countries for hotel giants that are looking to distance themselves from controversy. The
continues. Wizz Air is the only EU carrier to have a base in Ukraine. The contracts involved with franchised hotels in Russia means that they cannot simply
company’s four aircraft stationed there will be withdrawn pending a “safe just shut down their branded properties. If they choose to do so, serious financial
evacuation window” for them. It previously operated 45 routes out of Ukraine ramifications could follow, as third-party hotels would likely take legal action.
and was the second largest budget airline in the country with a 27% market
share, according to the company’s 2021 annual report. Demand disruption
▪ The impact of the crisis may affect the top lines of luxury tourism companies in ▪ Ukraine and Russia are important source markets for Turkey. In 2021, they created a
premium destinations. Luxury hotel operators that have a presence in the combined 4.9 million visits to Turkey, which was 36% of the total visits from its
Maldives and Seychelles, such as IHG with its Six Senses brand, may see lower top 10 inbound source markets. Turkey will be heavily impacted by the crisis.
occupancy rates due to a lack of Russian tourists. According to GlobalData, the ▪ Russians looking to travel to Europe are faced with unaffordable prices for their
Russian source market is among the top 10 inbound markets for the Maldives airline tickets, with many having to take complicated transfers. This will harm
and the Seychelles. Russian visitation to the Seychelles increased at a CAGR of several touristic destinations that are favoured by Russian tourists.
4.7% between 2009 and 2019, and 7.6% to the Maldives in the same period.
194
Source: GlobalData
8. #InfluencerViews on Ukraine Conflict
Russia-Ukraine crisis | Summary | 1 Feb - 7 Apr 2022
Total Posts Total Contributors Twitter Influencers Total Redditors Total Negative
730,906 52,154 15,803 36,351 37%
Conversation Trendline Word cloud
#Influencerviews on Russia-Ukraine crisis

The Influencer sentiments dropped significantly over last week
when evidence of horrific civilian killings by Russian army were
shared over social media.
196
Some noteworthy trends | 27 Mar – 7 Apr 2022
Doubts on sanctions after Ruble

recovery #1 Should Finland still apply for NATO #2 Asian buyers for discounted Oil #3
533 Posts • 371 Contributors 386 Posts • 215 Contributors 337 Posts • 241 Contributors
Ruble has bounced back strongly, regaining 100% During last week, Finland appears closer to joining India, China take advantage of large discounts on
of its loss to way back to where it was before NATO membership despite Russia’s threat of military Russian oil and make record purchases over
Russia’s invasion • Influencers believe this consequences • Multiple influencers fear that previous weeks • Several Influencers are of an
#Influencerviews on Russia-Ukraine crisis

rebound was largely due to forced conversion of Finland’s accession to NATO could results in similar opinion that despite sanctions, European nations
foreign currency, as Russia asked oil and gas consequences as for Ukraine. continue to buy gas from Russia, so can other
buyers to pay in rubles, creating a demand. countries do.
Commodity prices continue to

rise further #4 Growing risk of recession #5 Potential food crisis? #6
323 Posts • 229 Contributors 170 Posts • 134 Contributors 118 Posts • 95 Contributors
Commodity prices continues to rise further due to The risk of global recession is rising, with new Global food prices continue to soar as Russia
the Russia-Ukraine war • Coal prices surged after signs like – Inversion in U.S. yield curve, Euro zone continued war against Ukraine. Many African and
EU commission proposed a ban, grain prices factory growth slowed • Influencers fear that Middle East nations are dependent Wheat imports
continue to soar as Russia, Ukraine are key supply-side inflation, interrupted gas imports from Russia and Ukraine • Influencers are of an
exporters, steel prices spiked impacting home could trigger a recession in Europe. opinion that this could lead to devastating impact
builders. on global food security.
197
What Influencers say *Date range: 27 Mar – 7 Apr 2022
Doubts on sanctions after

Ruble recovery
533 Posts • 371 Contributors #1
#USDollar • #Payments • #Trade • #Gas •

#Europe
Senior Editor, WELT

Senior Correspondent, Washington President, Eurasia Group
Should Finland apply for NATO

#2
386 Posts • 215 Contributors
#NATO • #Sweden • #Russiainvasion •

#Enemy
Former Marine F/A-18 Pilot

Correspondent, FT
198
President, Chicago Council
What Influencers say * Date range: 27 Mar – 7 Apr 2022
Asian buyers for oil

#3
#Russianoil • #India• #China • #Barrels •

#Sanctions
Founder, CEO, Ela Capital
Investor, Business Leader Deputy Chief Economist, IIF
Commodity prices rise further

#4
#Wheat • #Commodities • #War • #Metals •

#Steel
Iron ore analyst Editor, WSJ Logistics report

Chief Economist, Allianz
199
What Influencers say * Date range: 27 Mar – 7 Apr 2022
Growing risk of Recession

#5
#Inflation • #Energyprices• #Clashes •

#Factoryoutput • #Yieldcurve
U.S. Treasury and Economic Policy Reporter

Chairman, Elyments Platforms
Co-Founder, Wise
Potential Food crisis?

#6
#Foodprices • #Wheat • #Supplyshortage •

#Foodinsecurity • #Exports
Economist Retired, EU commission

Editor, The Planet
200
Social media analytics: methodology
For this report:
• We analyzed the influencer conversations on Russia-Ukraine crisis over Twitter and Reddit channels, tracked by GlobalData’s Social
Media Analytics platform, over a period 1 February – 7 April 2022.
• Popular trends among social media conversations were identified using Buzz Index and volume of posts during the period 27
March – 7 April 2022.
➢ Buzz Index Score is GlobalData’s proprietary metric which is used to calculate uniqueness of any trend on a scale 0-1. The score
closer to 1 is, the more recent and popular mentions are for a trend. A score of 1 indicates that a trend is not discussed prior to a
selected time period.
➢ Volume of posts is the sum of Twitter and Reddit posts for the trend, shared by the influencers tracked by GlobalData, during a
selected time period.
201
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The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be
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Ukraine Conflict

Executive Briefing (Fourth Edition)

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▪ Social Media Influencer Views

International Flavors & Fragrances US 5

* F. Hoffmann-La Roche * Etalon Group

Company Sector HQ Target market Revenue Company Sector HQ Revenue

Source: GlobalData’s Multinational Companies Database 14

▪ Become a neutral state (‘demilitarization’).

▪ Recognize Crimea as Russian territory.

▪ This agenda clearly includes leadership change in Russia as a desired effect.

Russia shows some flexibility Disputes about ‘Self-sanctioning’ starts to

Russia continues to apply military leverage.

TIMING: Russia still limps on, thanks to food

1. Becoming a neutral state

Russia’s three stated war BLOCKAGE

▪ Petrol taxes are being cut in many countries.

▪ The medium-term push to decarbonization given new impetus:

▪ Geopolitics will be a theme for the decade and should be a regular

▪ Expect a broad effect of deteriorating growth-inflation trade-offs

▪ National security will trump growth.

▪ Energy security will trump ESG considerations, at least in the short

▪ A key question: how strong and durable will the ‘no-limits’

▪ Business and investment strategies will, in any case, need to take

Source: Bloomberg, GlobalData 23

1.7 Australia $ (AUD) per $ 8.0

Source: Bloomberg; GlobalData 24

Foodservice Healthcare Insurance Medical Mining Oil & Gas Index

Packaging Pharma Power Retail Technology Travel & Tourism Index

Country Sanctions Sectors impacted Sanctions type

Country Sanctions Sectors impacted Sanctions type

Country Sanctions Sectors impacted Sanctions type

Country Sanctions Sectors impacted Sanctions type

Country Sanctions Sectors impacted Sanctions type

Country Sanctions Sectors impacted Sanctions type

Country Sanctions Sectors impacted Sanctions type

Country Sanctions Sectors impacted Sanctions type

Country Sanctions Sectors impacted Sanctions type

Country Sanctions Sectors impacted Sanctions type

North America Western Europe %

% India United Kingdom Russia Ukraine %

% World Africa Asia-Pacific East Europe %

Crude Oil, Brent (US$/bbl) 100.99 97.2%

Natural Gas (USD/MMBtu) 5.34 116.1%

Silver (US$/troy oz) 24.28 -3.5%

Note: As of April 6, 2022.

Aerospace, Defense & Security Insurance

Oil & Gas

Healthcare Travel & Tourism

Aerospace, Defense & Security

Industry predictions Supply chain & demand disruption

Countries with largest programs by value from Russian ADS companies

Pre-war Influenced by war Pre-war Influenced by war Pre-war Influenced by war

Percentage of GDP Percentage of GDP Percentage of GDP

3.0 2.0% 50 3.0% 40 2.0%

UK defense budget (US$ billion) US defense budget (US$ billion)

Industry predictions Supply chain & demand disruption

Selected world crop daily prices, Jan - Mar 2022

Palm Oil, $/tonne

Source: LMC International, part of GlobalData 62

Black Sea ship activity (29-03-2022)

Wheat (US Gulf)

Corn (US Gulf)

Brent Crude Oil

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Source: LMC International, part of GlobalData 64