Russia-Ukraine war : Economic crisis

The world trade organisation which oversees trade ties and rules between nations has some real
bad news when its comes to the world’s GDP . And all that has to do with Russia Ukraine war, this
war has really spilled over geopolitical ties between nations and now we are forcing a new
unofficial world order and that is the west vs Russia . This has affect the global economy , taking
down the world;s GDP with it , because both Russia and Ukraine are impo suppliers of essential
products.
 Current status

• Today Russia Ukraine war has reached such a point point where it is
really difficult to say what will be it's outcome.
• According to experts, one thing is really clear that this war is not
going according to the plan of Russia
• Russia thought it would achieve a fast and decisive victory but the
ukranian Resistance turned the tide.
 Why India should worry??
1. Crude & Gas prices soaring
2. Agri products - Wheat, Corn, Sunflower Oil, Barley prices will rise
3. India's refusal to criticise Russia's actions, and the string of abstentions at
UN might affect its relations with the West and Quad partners.
4. Economic sanctions on Russia might cripple Indo-Russia trade, energy and
defence relations.
5. Tea exports from India to Russia hampered
6. Russia is looking for assistance from China which puts India in a
precarious pos
 A Bigger worry for all!!!!!
why UN choose to silent ?

• Russia's actions in Ukraine has seen no intervention from UN. Russia

is a part of UNSC blocking any action.-
• But if we look closely, Russian actions in Ukraine & lack of
international mandate seem no different from the war by the US in
Iraq in 2003, Israel's bombing of Lebanon in 2006 and the Saudi-
coalition's attacks of Yemen in 2015.-
• Perhaps Ukrainian conflict is a bigger blow to the post-World War
order
 What is happening in market
A potential invasion of Ukraine by
neighbouring Russia would be felt across
a number of markets,From wheat and
energy prices and the region's sovereign
dollar bonds to safe-haven assets and
stock markets.
• A major risk event usually sees investors rushing back
to bonds, generally seen as the safest assets, and this
time may not be different,
• Even if a Russian invasion of Ukraine risks further
fanning oil prices -- and therefore inflation.
• Inflation at multi-decade highs and impending interest
rate rises have made for a tetchy start to the year for
bond markets,
• With U.S. 10-year rates still hovering close to the key
2% level and German 10-year yields above 0% for the
first time since 2019.
 Choices for Russia

>Putin can declare a war on Ukraine instead of continuing with military

operations
>Another option for Putin is to make a decent agreement to ensure its
control over Crimea, Donbass and Southern Ukraine.
>Putin can also make it a 'frozen conflict’
These strategies can help out to demobilise west and diverse media
attention.