Synopsis/Executive Summary

I. Introduction

Vladimir Lenin once remarked that “there are decades where nothing happens;

and there are weeks where decades happen.” Individuals are living such weeks right

now. The challenge is to make sense of what those changes will bring.

Russia began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, in an

escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War that began in 2014. The invasion is the largest

conventional military attack in Europe since World War II. Explosions and gunfire were

heard in embattled cities in eastern Ukraine as Russia’s invasion met unexpectedly stiff

resistance. The death toll reached the hundreds. At least 364 Ukrainians have died

since Russia invaded Ukraine and at least 759 have been injured, according to the

United Nations. The actual toll is believed to be "considerably higher."

Russia is on course for an economic collapse that will rival or even eclipse the

size of the 1998 slump which followed its debt default, although the financial fallout may

be less than then. Days after President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into Ukraine,

economists are starting to publish forecasts for what is currently the world’s eleventh

largest economy, even though they warn the outlook is opaque and subject to revision.

The Russian economy is reeling after foreign governments slapped sanctions on

trade, finance and travel, froze the reserves of its central bank and cut many of its

banks from the SWIFT global messaging system. Russia has sought to insulate its

economy and markets with capital controls, a doubling of interest rates and other

emergency measures, all of which will hurt growth.

 Russia's participation in raiding Ukraine will lead to an economic crisis that will

surely affect not just the country itself but also the Philippines in terms of the oil price

hike.

Crude oil prices rose over 0.5% on Tuesday, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict

drags on, albeit well below a seven-year high after Russia's invasion of Ukraine began

last week, which is the most significant attack on a European country since World War

Two.

While global financial markets paused early on Tuesday after several days of

gyrations, with gold slipping slightly, investors were in a wait-and-watch mode, tracking

the Ukraine conflict unfolding and weighing its economic implications, notably regarding

energy prices.

The automatic and most frequent “solution” to expensive oil is to suspend the

collection of the product excise taxes.

II. Field of Research

The figure below depicts the field of research (Figure 1).

Direct Observation Case Study

Field of Research
 Interviews Ethnography

III. Outline of the issue/s Figure 1. Field of Research

As a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the global economy will be badly

impacted. This is the most serious issue that will arise as a result of the attack. There

will be financial sanctions, higher pricing for commodities, and supply chain interruptions

as a result of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. After all, commodities are where

Russia has the biggest influence on the global economy: it is the world's second- and

third-largest producers of natural gas and oil, respectively.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused challenges for the global economy due of

the following factors:

-Financial Sanctions

-Higher Prices for Goods

-Disruptions in the Supply Chains

IV. Theory

The state in Ukraine violates the Just War Theory. According to the Internet

Encyclopedia of Philosophy, Just War Theory deals with the justification of how and why

wars are fought, wherein the justification can be either theoretical or historical. The

theoretical aspect is concerned with how ethically justifying war and the forms that

warfare may or may not take, the historical aspect, or the “just war tradition,” deals with

the historical body of rules or agreements that have been applied in various wars in all

ages. Principles are presented on why Russia’s actions towards Ukraine are unjust and
why NATO is insisting on protecting Ukraine is legitimate according to the theory

mentioned. Just war theory encourages the legitimate government to form alliances for

mutual defense against aggression and NATO is an example of that kind of alliance, the

theory also allows alliances to provide military support or to respond militarily if

negotiations to reverse against the unjust aggression fails, this is why the USA, a

country included in NATO provided military support and aid for Ukraine. Wars of

conquest are all illegal, Russia’s desire to control Crimea’s ports is a prime example,

hence to reclaim losses by force of the victim country and its alliance is considered

understandable.

Wars always affect the economy of the country being attacked and also the

countries that benefit from the country being attacked. One example of this is the rise in

crude oil prices in the Philippines. According to Investopedia, a War economy is the

organization of a country's production capacity and distribution during a time of conflict,

a war economy must make substantial adjustments to its consumer production to

accommodate defense production needs. With this, it explains the rise of crude oil

prices in the Philippines ever since the Russian-Ukrainian war started, due to the

conflict between the two countries the oil production in the country and the distribution

capacity is at a disadvantage hence countries that benefits from oil from the countries

mentioned needs to raise the price for the oil. The war economy doesn’t only apply for

the countries that benefit from the two countries at war but also for the countries at war

themselves. Financial meltdown can also cause a war economy, a meltdown in terms of

finances is a thing that Russia is trying to prevent while the country is at war with

Ukraine.
V. Assumption

The researchers assumed that this reading will be more or less 30 minutes.