Cohort analysis of age data of saline City

Population forecast for 2028 for Saline City

Below are the projection methods used to predict the population:
• Constant-share Method:
The constant share method holds the smaller area’s (here city of Saline) share of the parent population
(here Washtenaw County ) constant at a certain point in time, usually at the base year. Data required
are population figures for the smaller area for one point in time only, and for the parent area a population
projection.
Consider the following variables:

Pt = Parent Population or total Population at time t

Pts = Population of the smaller area at time t

Pts
X0s =
Pt

Pts = X0s × Pt
Here we consider the base year as 2018. So for the City of Saline:
s
P t=0 = 343947, Pt=0 = 8744

8744
X0s =
343947

X0s = 0.0254
At t = 2028, P (t=2028) = 415606
Hence the estimated population of the City of Saline in is 2028 is:

s
P(t=2028) = X0s × P (t=2028)

s
P(t=2028) = 0.0254 × 415606

s
P(t=2028) ≈ 10556 (Answer)
• Growth-share Method:

The growth share method is based upon population growth rates for the smaller area’s population or
the sub-population. The method assumes that the observed population growth of the smaller area will be
constant over the projection period.
Assume:
Pt = Parent Population or total Population at time t

Pts = Population of the smaller area at time t

P t=b = Total population of the bigger or the parent area at an intermediate time t = b

s
Pt=b = Population of the smaller area at t = b

1
 The formula for the projected population of the smaller area is:
 s s

s s Pt=b − Pt=0
Pt = Pt=0 + × (Pt − P t=0 )
P t=b − P t=0
Where b is any year in between the base year and the prediction year.
In this case, the base year is 2010 and the year of prediction is 2028. So we consider 2018 as b here.
So substituting the corresponding values in the equation, we get:
 
s (9223 − 8744)
Pt = 8744 + × (415606 − 343947)
(365961 − 343947)

Pts ≈ 10303 (Answer)

• Shift-share Method
The shift-share method allows for changes in population shares of the smaller areas over time. The
trends of changing shares may be determined by inspecting past trends or by formulating appropriate
assumptions.
The formula for projection using this method is as follows:
 s  s s

s Pt=0 z Pt=b Pt=0
Pt = P t + × −
P t=0 y P t=b P t=0
Where,

b = base year.

z = Number of years till projection year from base year.

y = Number of years in the base period.

Here, base year is 2010 and the base period is taken from 2010 to 2018. So b = (2018 − 2010) or 8
years, and z = (2028 − 2010) or 18 years.
So,
  
s 8744 18 9223 8744
Pt = 415606 × + × −
343947 8 365961 343947

Pts ≈ 10278 (Answer)