Phase 8

Present the results of the problems proposed in the final project

Presented to :
Paola Andrea Carvajal

Presented by:
Albert Villada – Code: 14621960

National University Open and Distance

Santiago from Cali
May-19
 Problem 1. Decisions under a risk environment
A company dedicated to manufacturing different turned parts must decide whether to manufacture a new
product at its main plant, or if it buys it from an outside supplier. The profits depend on the demand of the
product. Table 10 shows projected profits, in millions of pesos.

Table 1. Decision process for the

commercialization of tha
product
Low
High
Demand average High -
Decision medium -
low - - demand
alternative utility
utility utility utility
demand
demand
Manufacture 124 146 165 182
Subcontract 121 142 167 180
Buy 122 148 169 188
Lease 116 150 161 180
Leasing 119 148 167 183
Probabilities 0.32 0.28 0.15 0.25

Solution
ment
o manufacture a new
on the demand of the
 Problem 2. Decision in uncertainty:
The company is thinking of acquiring machinery with new technology to carry out its workshop work. The
purchase will be decided according to several alternatives presented by the seller (adaptability), this to
facilitate the implementation in the workshop. The decision variables presented below represent the cost of
adaptation that will arise after acquiring the machinery and training the workers in their use. Table 11 shows
the costs in millions of currency units per technology.

Event
Does not Fits Fits
Alternative fit acceptably successfully Fits well
Technology 1 780 810 818 860
Technology 2 880 820 855 820
Technology 3 830 875 878 900
Technology 4 630 872 812 910

Determine the optimal size of the premises to be purchased, using the methods of LAPLACE, WALD, HURWIC
AND SAVAGE. Hurwicz Alpha 0,70.

Solution
LAPLACE
p(j) 1/4 1/4 1/4 1/4
Fits Fits Fist well
ALTERNATIVE Does not fit acceptably successfully V/M
TECHNOLOGY 1 195 202.5 204.5 215 817
TECHNOLOGY 2 220 205 213.75 205 843.75
TECHNOLOGY 3 207.5 218.75 219.5 225 870.75
TECHNOLOGY 4 157.5 218 203 227.5 806

WALD O PESIMISTA

Fits Fits Fist well

ALTERNATIVE Does not fit acceptably successfully
TECHNOLOGY 1 780 810 818 860 780
TECHNOLOGY 2 880 820 855 820 820
TECHNOLOGY 3 830 875 878 900 830
TECHNOLOGY 4 630 872 812 910 630

OPTIMISTA
Fits Fits Fist well
ALTERNATIVE Does not fit acceptably successfully
TECHNOLOGY 1 780 810 818 860 860
TECHNOLOGY 2 880 820 855 820 880
TECHNOLOGY 3 830 875 878 900 900
TECHNOLOGY 4 630 872 812 910 910

HURWICZ
Fits Fits Fist well
ALTERNATIVE Does not fit acceptably successfully
TECHNOLOGY 1 780 810 818 860
TECHNOLOGY 2 880 820 855 820
TECHNOLOGY 3 830 875 878 900
TECHNOLOGY 4 630 872 812 910

Fist well
Fits Fits
ALTERNATIVE Does not fit acceptably successfully
TECHNOLOGY 1 780 810 818 860 836
TECHNOLOGY 2 880 820 855 820 862
TECHNOLOGY 3 830 875 878 900 879
TECHNOLOGY 4 630 872 812 910 826

SAVAGE
Fist well
Fits Fits
ALTERNATIVE Does not fit acceptably successfully
TECHNOLOGY 1 780 810 818 860
TECHNOLOGY 2 880 820 855 820
TECHNOLOGY 3 830 875 878 900
TECHNOLOGY 4 630 872 812 910
MAX 880 875 878 910

Fist well
Fits Fits
ALTERNATIVE Does not fit acceptably successfully
TECHNOLOGY 1 100 65 60 50 100
TECHNOLOGY 2 0 55 23 90 90
TECHNOLOGY 3 50 0 0 10 50
TECHNOLOGY 4 250 3 66 0 250
TECHNOLOGY 5 880 875 878 910 910
rtainty:
carry out its workshop work. The
he seller (adaptability), this to
sented below represent the cost of
workers in their use. Table 11 shows

ethods of LAPLACE, WALD, HURWICZ

817
843.75
870.75
806

Coeficiente Optimista 0.7

Coeficiente Pesimista 0.3
 Problem 3. Decision in uncertainty
Find the saddle point of the data given below in table 12 for players A and B.
PLAYER B
81 83 93 78
81 78 85 85

PLAYER A
81 92 80 87
91 83 85 93
87 89 88 79

Solution
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
0 0 0 0.26315789 0.73684211

PLAYER B
P1 0 81 83 93 78
PLAYER A

P2 0 81 78 85 85
P3 0 81 92 80 87
P4 0.47368421 91 83 85 93
P5 0.52631579 87 89 88 79
SUMA 1 MAXIMO 91 92 93 93

VALOR
ESPERADO 88.8947368 86.1578947 86.5789474 85.6315789
on in uncertainty
12 for players A and B.

84
85
83
83
88

tion
SUMA
1
VALOR
MINIMO ESPERADO
84 78 82.4210527
85 78 85
83 80 84.0526316
83 83 85.6315789
88 79 85.6315790
88 88

85.6315790