Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering

https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-020-05270-3

RESEARCH ARTICLE-CIVIL ENGINEERING

Prediction of Indirect Tensile Strength of Intermediate Layer of Asphalt

Pavements Using Artificial Neural Network Model
Dong‑Hyuk Kim1 · Sang‑Jik Lee1 · Ki‑Hoon Moon2 · Jin‑Hoon Jeong1 

Received: 6 October 2020 / Accepted: 17 December 2020

© King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals 2021

Abstract
The repair method for pavements should be selected considering the structural capacity of sublayers, in addition to the con‑
ditions observed at the pavement surface, to reduce the recurrence of distress in the repaired area. However, it is practically
impossible to include the structural capacity of sublayers in the database of the pavement management system (PMS) because
this would require additional tests in all expressway sections. Therefore, an artificial neural network model for predicting the
indirect tensile strength (ITS) of the intermediate layer of all asphalt pavement sections in an expressway was developed in
this study, taking the international roughness index, rut depth, surface distress, and equivalent single axle load as independent
variables. The ITS of specimens cored from target sections was measured in the laboratory, and the PMS data for the target
sections were collected. The ITS was predicted by conducting a feedforward process prior to the training step. When the
error between the predicted and measured ITSs exceeded the allowable error, the model was repetitively trained using the
resilient backpropagation method until the error fell within the acceptable boundary. The model was validated by analyzing
the correlations between the ITSs predicted from the data of the training and test sets. Finally, the model was complemented
by the corresponding minimum and maximum values of the ITS measured at the target section.

Keywords  Artificial neural networks · Indirect tensile strength · Asphalt pavement · Intermediate layer · Pavement
management system

1 Introduction expressways [1, 2]. Length of expressway asphalt pavements

that were used for over 10 years of design life was increased
The extent of Korean expressways has been continuously by 1864 km in 2017. However, it is predicted that it would
increasing, reaching 4767 km in 2018, starting with the reach 3981 km in 2021, more than twice that of 2017 [3].
opening of a part of the Gyeongbu expressway (Rt. 1) in The Korea Expressway Corporation (KEC) has operated the
1968. Recently, the pavement maintenance cost has sig‑ pavement management system (PMS) since 1996 to man‑
nificantly increased owing to the deterioration of aged age deteriorating pavements more efficiently [4]. The PMS
collects pavement condition data such as the international
roughness index (IRI), rut depth (RD), and surface distress
* Jin‑Hoon Jeong
jhj@inha.ac.kr (SD) of entire pavement sections, in addition to other data
such as traffic volume every two years, as shown in Fig. 1.
Dong‑Hyuk Kim
my91kim@gmail.com The fundamental causes of distress cannot be found by
investigation of the pavement conditions alone because the
Sang‑Jik Lee
sjlee9408@inha.edu structural capacity below the pavement surface cannot be
observed even though it affects the pavement conditions.
Ki‑Hoon Moon
zetamkh@ex.co.kr Distress may recur on the pavement surface by the propaga‑
tion of damage in the sublayers in an upward direction if
1
Department of Civil Engineering, Inha University, 100 damage in the sublayers is not completely repaired. Despite
Inha‑ro, Michuhol‑gu, Incheon 22212, Korea this, only surface distress has so far been used to deter‑
2
Korea Expressway Corporation Research Institute, Korea mine the repair method in the PMS, without regard for the
Expressway Corporation, 24, Dongtansunhwan‑daero 17‑gil, structural capacity of the sublayers [5]. Investigating the
Hwaseong‑si, Gyeonggi‑do 18489, Korea

13
Vol.:(0123456789)

Fig. 1  Major factors indicating asphalt pavement conditions in PMS
mechanistic properties of asphalt layers below the surface
layer, such as the intermediate and base layers, by testing
specimens cored from asphalt pavements, can be an alterna‑
tive method that considers the structural capacity of the sub‑
layers. However, coring and testing specimens throughout
the entire expressway asphalt pavement sections for includ‑
ing the results in the PMS database is practically impossible
owing to the substantial time and cost it will incur.
Therefore, a method was required for the prediction of
the mechanistic properties of asphalt pavement sublayers
without coring and testing specimens at every 100 m of
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Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering
the length of the unit section, as defined by the PMS. The
indirect tensile strength (ITS), which is closely related to
cracking, permanent deformation, and aging of asphalt pave‑
ment, was used as an important parameter in performance
prediction models in the mechanistic–empirical pavement
design guide of the USA [6–8]. In this study, a model for
predicting the ITS of the intermediate layer was developed
because the layer is situated just below the surface layer and
affects the pavement conditions the most, compared to the
other pavement layers. The ITS of the intermediate layer
could be measured in most cases irrespective of damage to
the surface layer.
Generally, models predicting pavement conditions have
been developed in the form of regression models [9]. The
ITS, predicted by the IRI, RD, and SD observed at the pave‑
ment surface, may exhibit significant differences from the
actual ITS when a regression model is used because of the
complicated relationships among the variables [10]. In con‑
trast to the regression models, the forms of relations between
the variables need not be set in advance; as a result, the
complicated relations can conveniently be reflected in an
artificial neural network (ANN) model [11]. In addition, the
assumptions that are required for the evaluation of normal‑
ity, linearity, and independence of variables are relatively
unconstrained compared to those in a regression model [12].
Therefore, an ANN model was developed to predict the ITS
of the intermediate layer of asphalt pavement.
The ANN model was developed following the procedure
shown in Fig. 2. The ITS of the intermediate layer was meas‑
ured by conducting laboratory tests on specimens cored from
the expressway asphalt pavement from target sections ran‑
domly selected in this study. In addition, the PMS data for
the target sections, such as IRI, RD, and SD, in addition to
traffic data such as ESAL, were collected in order to develop
and validate an ANN model to predict the ITS. The ITS of
the entire expressway asphalt pavement sections in Korea
was predicted using the ANN model developed in this study.
2 ITS Testing and PMS Data Collection
The specimens, with 100 mm diameter, were cored from 88
random locations of expressway asphalt pavements that were
open to traffic. In addition, data such as pavement condi‑
tions and traffic volume, which were collected by PMS for
the 100 m length of entire expressway unit sections, were
investigated for the target sections where the specimens were
cored. The information of the target sections and the number
of specimens cored from each target section are listed in
Table 1. The ITS test was conducted according to KS F 2382
[13] for the upper part of the intermediate layer by cutting
the core specimens to a height of 50 mm, as shown in Fig. 3.
The ITS was calculated using Eq. (1), taking the maximum
Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering
Fig. 2  Flow of this study
load at the point of destruction when the specimens were
loaded at a speed of 50 mm/min at 25 °C.
2P
ITS =
𝜋Dh
where ITS = indirect tensile strength (MPa), P = maximum
load (N), D = diameter of specimen (mm), h = height of
specimen (mm).
The PMS database comprised pavement conditions such
as IRI, RD, and SD as well as other data including traffic
volume, in addition to the position information such as the
route, direction, lane, and mileage. In this study, the IRI, RD,
SD, and traffic volume available in the PMS database were
used as independent variables of the ANN model to predict
the ITS of the intermediate layer.
The IRI, expressing the roughness of the road pavement
in the longitudinal direction, was developed to represent the
functional conditions of the pavement [14]. The RD is the
Table 1  Locations of asphalt Route no. Name of Route
core and pavement condition
data acquisition
15 Seohaean
25 Honam
Sum
difference in height between different locations, including
wheel paths, in the transverse direction. The RD results from
the accumulation of permanent deformation of each pave‑
ment layer due to vehicle load [15]. The SD is a single-digit
index (with the unit of area) that combines several types of
distresses occurring at the pavement surface, such as lon‑
gitudinal cracking, transverse cracking, and map cracking
[16]. The annual average daily traffic is the daily average
of the total number of vehicles passing a unit section in a
year, regardless of vehicle type. Instead of the annual aver‑
age daily traffic, the equivalent single axle load (ESAL) was
used as an independent variable in this study because the
pavement distress has been correlated more with the axle
load of the vehicle than the traffic volume [5, 17].
The distributions of the ITS, IRI, RD, SD, and ESAL of
88 target sections, where specimens were cored, and entire
sections of expressway asphalt pavements are plotted in
Fig. 4. The results of the statistical analysis are summarized
in Table 2. The skewness and kurtosis of each variable were
calculated for both the target sections and entire sections
to investigate whether the target sections showed normal
distributions and were representative of the entire sections.
The variable with skewness and kurtosis near zero shows a
normal distribution. Therefore, referring to a previous study
[18], it was assumed for the present study that the variables
with skewness and kurtosis below 3 and 10, respectively,
showed normal distributions.
(1)
Fig. 3  Depth of core specimens for ITS test
Number of speci‑ Note
mens
20 Seopyeongtaek IC ~ Ansan JC (41.9 km)
68 Seojeonju IC ~ Jeongeup IC (41.2 km),
Goseo JCT ~ Seosuncheon IC
(69.6 km)
88 –
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Fig. 4  Distribution of variables

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Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering

Table 2  Summary of basic statistics of variables of model

Variable Section Number Max. Q3 Median Q1 Min. Mean Standard Skewness Kurtosis Normality
of sam‑ deviation
ples

ITS (MPa) Target sections 88 2.07 1.55 1.21 0.87 0.19 1.21 0.45 − 0.07 − 0.81 Yes
IRI (m/km) Target sections 88 2.69 1.74 1.37 1.17 0.66 1.47 0.44 0.69 − 0.12 Yes
Entire sections 54,262 7.66 1.91 1.45 1.17 0.45 1.61 0.63 1.40 2.81 Yes
RD (mm) Target sections 88 12.55 7.22 5.91 4.16 3.00 6.05 2.18 0.71 0.03 Yes
Entire sections 54,262 20.00 6.48 4.82 3.57 0.00 5.32 2.46 1.38 2.93 Yes
SD ­(m2) Target sections 88 15.94 0.35 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.86 2.36 4.34 21.76 No
Entire sections 54,262 83.72 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64 2.48 8.87 128.74 No
Cube root of SD Target sections 88 2.52 0.70 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.47 0.59 1.38 1.51 Yes
Entire sections 54,262 4.37 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.54 2.04 4.26 Yes
ESAL Target sections 88 7185 4393 3980 3811 2113 4136 1137 1.33 2.33 Yes
Entire sections 54,262 11,638 4667 3400 2280 28 3592 1826 0.41 − 0.33 Yes

The variables, except for SD, satisfied the criterion of nor‑
mality for both target sections and entire sections, as summa‑
rized in Table 2, and showed normal distributions, as shown
in Fig. 4a, b, and e. However, the skewness and kurtosis of SD
were 4.26 and 21.76 for target sections and 8.70 and 124.33
for the entire sections, respectively, thereby failing to satisfy
the criterion of normality. The SD distribution curve leaned
toward the left, as shown in Fig. 4c because SD was zero at
nearly all unit sections, and a significantly high SD was cal‑
culated at only a few unit sections owing to several distresses.
The SD that did not satisfy the criterion of normality
could be applied in this study because the ANN method is
free from the distribution of variables. However, the pre‑
diction accuracy of the ANN model was improved by the
appropriate transformation of the variables to reduce the
skewness and kurtosis of the data [19–22]. Therefore, as
shown in Fig. 4d, a cube root was applied to the SD based on
the form of distribution, and the skewness and kurtosis were
recalculated [23]. As a result, the skewness and kurtosis of
the cube root of SD were 1.36 and 1.51 for target sections
and 2.00 and 4.08 for the entire sections, respectively, sat‑
isfying the criterion of normality. Therefore, the cube root
of SD was used as an independent variable in the model
instead of the SD.
was developed using the data of the training set according
to the procedure shown in Fig. 5. The structure of the model
comprises three layers: one input layer, one hidden layer, and
one output layer, as shown in Fig. 6. The input layer com‑
prised four nodes matching the four independent variables,
IRI, RD, SD, and ESAL, while 3 to 20 nodes were tried in
the hidden layer in turn. The output layer comprised only
one node for the dependent variable, ITS.
The ESAL, with values in the range of thousands, had
a larger scale than the IRI, RD, and SD, with single-digit
values, when comparing the x axes in Fig. 4. A problem,
for which the ITS was predicted mainly by ESAL, occurred
because ESAL influenced the predicted ITS more than the
other independent variables because of its larger scale [25].
In addition, the SD with ordinary magnitude could be distin‑
guished as an outlier before standardization because the SD
of almost all the unit sections was zero, as shown in Fig. 4c.
Therefore, standardization was conducted in order to reduce
the scale of ESAL according to the robust method, as shown
in Eq. (2), which used a median value that was less sensitive
to outliers than the average value [25, 26].
( )
xi − median xi
Xi = ( ) (2)
MAD xi

where Xi   =   s t a n d a r d i z e d
( ) value of x  ,
| ( )|
3 Development of the ANN Model MAD = 1.4826median|xi − median xi | , median xi  = median
| |
value of x.
The PMS data of the target sections, where specimens were As a result of the standardization of the independent vari‑
cored, were divided into two parts in the ratio 7:3 to classify ables with different scales, as shown in Fig. 7a, the medians
the data into a training set of 62 sections to teach the ANN of all the independent variables were set to zero, adjusting
model and a test set of 26 sections to validate the model. the scales of the independent variables, as shown in Fig. 7b.
The datasets for each group were selected by a non-restored The initial weights and biases were set as the first step
random extraction method that generates random numbers of ANN modeling. Generally, the random numbers chosen
using the Mersenne–Twister method [24]. The ANN model from the standard normal distribution curve, with an average

13

Fig. 5  Process of ANN mod‑
eling
value of 0 and a standard deviation of 1, are used as initial
weights and biases. In this case, however, the influence of
each independent variable on the predicted ITS can be ran‑
domly determined by the initial weights and biases because
each initial weight or bias uses a unique random number.
Therefore, only one random number generated on the stand‑
ard normal distribution curve, using the Mersenne Twister
method, was used as the initial value for all the weights and
biases in this study (Matsumoto and Nishimura 1998).
The ITS was calculated using Eqs. (3) to (5), applying the
initial weights and biases connecting the input layer to the
output layer via the hidden layer in the feedforward process
shown in Fig. 6.
∑
I to the biases ( wj ) of the hidden layer to obtain a value ( hj ).
hj = wij xi + wj (3)
i=1
( )
netj = f hj (4)
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Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering
∑
J
̂=
ITS wjo neti + wo (5)
j=1
where i = index of input variable; 1, 2, 3, …, i, j = index of
hidden node; 1, 2, 3, …, j, o = index of output node; 1, 2,
3 …, o, xi = value of input variable i, wij = weight connect‑
ing node i of input layer and node j of the hidden layer,
wjo = weight connecting node j of hidden layer and node of
output layer, wj = bias at node j of the hidden layer, wo = bias
at node of output layer, f  = activation function, ITS
̂ = output
value.
The input values ( xi ) were multiplied by the weights ( wij )
connecting the input layer and hidden layer and then added
Subsequently, the value ( hj ) was substituted into the activa‑
tion function to be converted to another value ( netj).
The sigmoid function was used on the hidden node to
make the ANN model nonlinear, as shown by Eq. (6) [27].
The sigmoid function has frequently been used to predict the
Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering

Fig. 6  Structure of ANN model

pavement material properties, especially for ANN structures can be halted when the absolute values of the partial deriva‑
with one hidden layer [28]. In addition, Gandhi et al. [29] tives of all the weights and biases are less than 0.01, thus
used the sigmoid function to predict the ITS of asphalt pave‑ satisfying the criterion [30]. However, the partial derivatives
ment. Therefore, the sigmoid function was selected as the of all the weights and biases for the ITS predicted through
activation function in this study. The value ( netj ) obtained the first feedforward process did not satisfy the criterion in
from the activation function was multiplied by the weights this study. Therefore, training of the ANN model was started
( wjo ) connecting the hidden layer and output layer and then using the resilient backpropagation method by, repetitively,
added to the bias ( wo ) of the output layer to finally obtain correcting each weight and bias individually until the par‑
the output value ( ITS
̂). tial derivatives of all the weights and biases satisfied the
criterion [31].
1
f (x) = (6) The learning conditions applied in the resilient back‑
1 + e−x
propagation method used in this study are listed in Table 3
The error for the ITS predicted through the feedforward [32, 33]. The learning step for the model started by adding
process against the measured ITS was calculated as the sum or subtracting the initial change in the learning amount ( 𝛥0 ),
of squared errors, as shown by Eq. (7). as listed in Table 3, to or from the initial weight and bias
that were not satisfied in the first feedforward process. Each
N ( )2
∑ initial weight and bias was increased or decreased individu‑
E= ̂n − ITSn
ITS (7)
n=1
ally, to be used as the weight and bias in the learning step,
by adding or subtracting the initial change in the learning
where E = sum of squared errors, ITS
̂ = predicted ITS (MPa), amount according to the negative or positive sign of the par‑
ITS = measured ITS (MPa). tial derivative for each initial weight and bias.
The partial derivative (∂E/∂w) for each weight and bias, The ITS was predicted again using the weights and biases
which reveals the change in error according to the change in corrected by the initial change in the learning amount in
each weight or bias, was calculated. The prediction of ITS order to recheck whether the partial derivative of each

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Eq. (8). If the product of the present and previous partial

derivatives was positive, the rate of increase in learning
change ( 𝛾 + ) was multiplied by the change in learning amount
in the previous iteration ( 𝛥t−1
k
 ) to calculate the change in the
amount of learning in the present iteration ( 𝛥tk ). On the con‑
trary, if the product was negative, the decrease rate of learn‑
ing change ( 𝛾 − ) was multiplied by the change in learning
amount in the previous iteration. Subsequently, according to
the sign of the partial derivative in the present iteration, the
positive or negative sign of the change in learning amount
was determined, as shown in Eq. (9), to identify whether the
change should be added to or subtracted from the learning
amount in the present iteration ( wtk ); the result is used as a
new learning amount for each weight and bias in the next
iteration ( wt+1
k
 ). The iteration was continued until the partial
derivatives of all the weights and biases satisfied the crite‑
rion. The number of learning iterations in the learning step
according to the number of hidden nodes is shown in Fig. 8.

⎧ 𝛾 + 𝛥(t−1) , if 𝜕E(t−1) 𝜕Et > 0,

⎪ k 𝜕w(t−1)
k
𝜕wtk
⎪ (t−1) t
𝛥tk = ⎨ 𝛾 − 𝛥(t−1) , if 𝜕E(t−1) 𝜕Et < 0,
k 𝜕wk
(8)
𝜕wk
⎪
⎪ 𝛥(t−1) , otherwise
⎩ k

⎧ −𝛥t , if 𝜕Et > 0,

⎪ k 𝜕wtk
⎪ t
𝛥wtk = ⎨ +𝛥tk , if 𝜕Et < 0, (9)
𝜕wk
⎪
⎪ 0, otherwise
⎩

where 𝛥tk = change of learning amount of weight or bias k in

𝜕Et
Fig. 7  Box plot for distribution of variables before and after stand‑ iteration t, 𝜕w t  = partial derivative of weight or bias k in itera‑
ardization k
tion t, k = index of weight or bias, t = index of iteration in

Table 3  Parameters of resilient backpropagation

Symbol Description Value

𝛾+ Increase rate of change of learning amount 1.2

𝛾− Decrease rate of change of learning amount 0.5
𝛥0 Initial change of learning amount 0.1
𝛥max Maximum change of learning amount 50
𝛥min Minimum change of learning amount 10−6

weight and bias satisfied the criterion. If the partial deriva‑

tive of a weight or bias did not satisfy (the criterion,
) the par‑
𝜕Et
tial derivative in the present iteration 𝜕wt was multiplied
( k )
𝜕E(t−1)
by that in the previous iteration, (t−1)  , as shown in
𝜕wk

Fig. 8  Number of learning iterations as a function of number of hid‑

den nodes

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learning step, 𝛾 + = increased learning rate (1 < 𝛾 + ) ,

𝛾 − = decreased learning rate (0 < 𝛾 − < 1).
The greater the number of hidden nodes, the more accu‑
rate the prediction of ITS by the ANN model, for the data
of the training set used in the modeling. However, the prob‑
lem of overfitting, which restricts the generalization of the
model, arose for the other data, thereby lowering the accu‑
racy of the predicted ITS [34]. Therefore, the number of
hidden nodes should be restricted to avoid the overfitting
problem in the ANN model. The coefficient of determina‑
tion ( R2 ) between the predicted and measured ITSs was
calculated using Eq. (10), according to the number of hid‑
den nodes (j), which varied from 3 to 20, to determine the
optimal number of hidden nodes.
∑N � ̂
j
�
n=1
ITSn − ITS n
R2j = 1 − ∑ � � (10)
N
n=1
ITSn − ITS

where R2j  = determination of coefficient for the number of

hidden nodes j, ITS = measured ITS (MPa) , ITS = mean
j
value of measured ITS (MPa) , ITŜ  = ITS predicted by ANN
model with the number of hidden nodes j (MPa), n = number
of data elements in the training set.
As a result, the coefficient of determination between pre‑
dicted and measured ITSs increased overall as a function of
the number of hidden nodes, as shown in Fig. 9a. However,
the increase rate slowed as a function of the number of hid‑
den nodes, as shown in Fig. 9b. The increase rate became
stable at 10% and then gradually approached zero in the case
of seven hidden nodes. Therefore, six was determined to be
the optimal number of hidden nodes to avoid overfitting in
Fig. 9  Change in coefficient of determination between predicted and
the model in this study. measured ITSs as a function of number of hidden nodes

4 Validation of ANN Model MAE is the error in the magnitude of the predicted ITS
compared to the measured ITS, while MAPE is the error
The ITSs predicted from the data of 62 training sets and in the rate of the predicted ITS compared to the measured
26 test sets, measured at 88 target sections, were plotted as ITS. In the case of the ITS predicted from the data of the
shown in Fig. 10. In addition to the coefficient of determi‑ training set, the MAE, MAPE, and coefficient of determi‑
nation, the mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute nation with respect to the measured ITS were calculated as
percentage error (MAPE) were calculated using Eqs. (12) 0.14 MPa, 14%, and 0.82, respectively. In the case of the ITS
and (13), respectively: predicted from the data of the test set, the MAE, MAPE, and
∑N � coefficient of determination were 0.14 MPa, 12%, and 0.79,
̂n ��
n=1 �� respectively, showing results similar to those for the train‑
ITSn − ITS
� (11)
MAE =
N ing set data. The MAEs and MAPEs were relatively low,
while the coefficients of determination were relatively high
N | for both the training and test sets. The MAPE of the training
∑ ̂n || 100
| ITSn − ITS
MAPE = | |× (12) dataset was 2% larger than that of the test dataset. However,
| ITSn | N the MAPE of the training dataset and test dataset could be
n=1 | |
considered the same because of the p value of 0.457 higher
where MAE = mean absolute error (MPa), MAPE = mean than 0.05 threshold, as a result of the t test for the absolute
absolute percentage error (%). percentage error of the training and test datasets.

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Fig. 11  Relative importance of variables to prediction of ITS

where RIi = relative importance of input node i, wij = weight

between input node i and hidden node j, wjo = weight
between hidden node j and output node o.
As a result, the order of relative importance of the inde‑
pendent variables in the prediction of ITS was ESAL, SD,
IRI, and then RD, as shown in Fig.  11. This result was
owing to the fact that ESAL had a higher correlation with
the mechanistic characteristics of asphalt such as ITS, while
RD had a higher correlation with the material characteristics
of asphalt, varying according to its temperature, compared
with the other independent variables.
Fig. 10  Scatter plot comparing predicted and measured ITSs

5 Complementation of the ANN Model

The relative importance of each independent variable in
predicting ITS was analyzed according to the weight parti‑ The ITS of entire unit sections of expressway asphalt pave‑
tioning method [35, 36]. The absolute value of the product ments was predicted using the ANN model developed in this
| |
( |wij wjo | ) of a weight ( wij ) between the input layer and hidden study. The distribution of the predicted ITS was similar to
| |
layer, and the weight ( wjo ) between the hidden layer and that measured for the specimens cored from the target sec‑
output layer was obtained for all possible combinations. The tions, as shown in Fig. 12. However, abnormally small or
relative importance of each independent variable was calcu‑ large ITSs were occasionally predicted for the expressway
lated by dividing the summation of all the possible combina‑ asphalt pavement sections with values of IRI, RD, SD, or
tions of the products obtained for each independent variable ESAL outside their respective ranges measured at the target
by that obtained for all independent variables, as shown in sections. Therefore, lower and upper limits were set for the
Eq. (13). ITS predicted by the model, to resolve the problem of pre‑
dicting a too small or too large ITS. The lower and upper
J ⎛ � � limits of the predicted ITS were determined to be 0.19 and
� �wij wjo � ⎞
RIi = ⎜ � � ⎟
(13) 2.07 MPa, respectively, corresponding to the minimum and
⎜ ∑I � �⎟
j=1 ⎝ i=1 �wij wjo � ⎠ maximum values of the ITS measured at the target sections.
� �
As a result, the ITS of the intermediate layer of asphalt pave‑
ment predicted by the ANN model was complemented as
expressed in Eq. (14).

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Fig. 12  Distribution of ITS predicted for target and entire sections
⎧ 2.07,
if ITSpredicted ≥ 2.07
⎪ to the resilient backpropagation method. By comparing
ITScorrected = ⎨ ITSpredicted , if 0.19 < ITSpredicted < 2.07
⎪ 0.19, if ITSpredicted ≤ 0.19
⎩ and measured ITSs according to the number of hidden
(14)
where ITSpredicted = ITS predicted by ANN model (MPa),
ITScorrected = corrected ITS (MPa).
6 Conclusions
In this study, an ANN model was developed to predict the
ITS of the upper part of the intermediate layer situated just
below the surface layer of expressway asphalt pavements in
order to take the effect of the structural capacity of the sub‑
layers on the distress that occurred at the pavement surface
into consideration in the PMS database. The main conclu‑
sions of this study are as follows:
1. The ITS of the specimens of the upper part of the inter‑
mediate layer cored from random locations in express‑
way asphalt pavements was measured to be used as the
dependent variable of the ANN model. In addition, the
IRI, RD, SD, and ESAL at the target sections where the
specimens were cored were referenced from the PMS
database, to be used as independent variables of the
model. The skewness and kurtosis of the dependent and
independent variables, except for SD, satisfied the cri‑
terion for normality, showing normal distributions. The
cube root of the SD was used as an independent variable
that satisfied the criterion for normality.
2. The structure of the ANN model comprised three layers:
one input layer, one hidden layer, and one output layer.
In order to minimize the larger influence of the inde‑
pendent variables, which have a relatively large number
of outliers or large scale, on the predicted ITS, stand‑
ardization was conducted for each independent variable
using the median value, which is less sensitive to the
outliers and the scale of independent variables than the
average value. The sigmoid function that has been used
several times in the past to predict the material proper‑
ties of asphalt was selected as an activation function
to make the ANN model nonlinear by performing the
calculation on hidden nodes.
3. A random number was chosen from the standard normal
distribution curve to be used as the initial value of all
the weights and biases in the first feedforward process.
The learning step for the ANN model was started when
the error of the ITS predicted through the feedforward
process was larger than the allowable error. The model
was developed by performing the learning until the error
of the predicted ITS satisfied the allowable error by
repetitively correcting each weight and bias according
the coefficient of determination between the predicted
nodes, six was determined as the optimal number of hid‑
den nodes for minimizing overfitting in the model.
4. The MAE, MAPE, and coefficient of determination
between the ITS predicted from the training set data
and the measured ITS were similar to those between the
ITS predicted from the test set data and the measured
ITS. The MAE and MAPE were relatively low, while the
coefficient of determination was relatively high for both
the training and test sets’ data, indicating the validity of
the model. In addition, the order of relative importance
of the independent variables in the prediction of ITS
was ESAL, SD, IRI, and then RD, as determined by the
weight partitioning method.
5. The ITS of the upper part of the intermediate layer of the
entire expressway asphalt pavement was predicted using
the ANN model developed in this study. As a result,
an abnormally small or large ITS was occasionally pre‑
dicted for the sections with values of IRI, RD, SD, and
ESAL outside their respective ranges measured at the
target sections. Therefore, the lower and upper limits
of the predicted ITS were determined to be 0.19 and
2.07 MPa, respectively, corresponding to the minimum
and maximum values of the ITS measured at the target
section to complement the ANN model.
Acknowledgments  This research was financially sponsored by the
Korea Expressway Corporation (KEC) and Inha University.
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 Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering

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