Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Management (JEB 045) Charles University, Prague
Investment Appraisal
Purpose
aim of investment appraisal is to chose and
apply techniques to determine which
Lecture 4 investment projects a firm should adopt
Investment Appraisal Techniques
net present value (NPV) – discounted value of
forecasted project cash flows
internal rate of return (IRR) – implicit annual rate
of return the project generates
Jiri Novak payback period (PP) – number of years it takes to
IES, UK recover the initial investment
‐2‐
Investment Appraisal Payback Period
Popularity Definition
survey evidence shows that managers use NPV length of time before a company recovers its
and IRR most frequently initial investment (without discounting)
nevertheless use of PP is also quite high based on simple addition of all project cash
inflows and comparing them to cash outflows
inflows and comparing them to cash outflows
Example
compute payback period of project that requires
initial investment of – $ 500 and gives CF:
Cash Flows ($)
0 1 2 3 4 5
– 500
50 150 300 400 300
‐3‐ ‐4‐
Payback Period Payback Period
Example Problems
which of projects A, B, C should a firm accept blind beyond horizon – completely disregards CF
following NPV as investment criterion? arriving after payback period
which of projects A, B, C should a firm accept no discounting – ignores time value of CF
following PP with 2‐year
following PP with 2 year, 3
3‐year
year cut
cut‐off?
off? occurring within payback period
occurring within payback period
why do NPV and PP give different suggestions? arbitrary cut‐off – payback period cut‐off used for
which criterion do you find more reasonable? accepting or rejecting projects is arbitrary
Conclusion
poor criterion that overly prioritizes short‐term
projects, but useful for quick orientation, easy to:
– calculate (no need for cost of capital)
– communicate (easy to understand)
‐5‐ ‐6‐
© Jiri Novak 1
Financial Management (JEB 045) Charles University, Prague
Net Present Value Net Present Value
Net Present Value Procedure
shows if project is worth more than it costs 1. forecast cash flows (CFt) generated by project in
T T individual years of its existence
CFt CFt
NPV0 t I0 2. determine opportunity cost of capital (r)
t 0 t 1 1 r
t
1 r
reflecting time value of money and project risk
depends solely on (i) amount and timing of CFt 3. use cost of capital to convert (discount)
(ii) opportunity cost of capital (r) individual cash flows to present value
NPV expresses value of projects in current
dollars, which simplifies interpretation:
NPV(A + B) = NPV(A) + NPV(B)
if NPV(B) is negative then NPV(A + B) < NPV(A)
‐7‐ ‐8‐
Net Present Value Net Present Value
Example Incremental Effect
What is NPV of project that requires initial assess projects based on incremental rather than
investment of €1 550 and pays €800 at end of average CF, throw “good money after bad”
year 1 and €400 at end of year 2 and 3, if interest ignore sunk cost that were incurred in the past,
rate is 8%? Should company take the project?
t i 8%? Sh ld t k th j t? past decisions cannot be reversed, they should
What could make it more attractive? not affect decisions on future investments
Solution include opportunity cost, resources that could be
sold are not for free, cost must be considered
r = 0.08, CF0 = – 1 550, CF1 = 800, CF2 = CF3 = 400
include all incidental effects on remainder of
NPV0 = – 1 550 + 800/1.08 + 400/1.082 + 400/1.083
business, e.g. overhead costs, new options
NPV0 = – € 367
‐9‐ ‐ 10 ‐
Net Present Value Net Present Value
Capital Rationing Profitability Index
companies make their owners best off if they NPV0
accept all projects with positive NPV PI 0
I0
however, sometimes capital is limited (rationed) ratio of project NPV
p j 0 and initial investment (I
( 0)),
and not all profitable can be undertaken i.e. measures NPV per dollar invested
then we need to select package of projects with when funds are limited pick projects with
highest NPV that meet capital limitation ($ 10 mil) highest profitability index (PI0)
‐ 11 ‐ ‐ 12 ‐
© Jiri Novak 2
Financial Management (JEB 045) Charles University, Prague
Net Present Value Internal Rate of Return
Limited Capital? Logic
well‐functioning capital markets should instead of measuring how much current dollars
provide financing for all positive NPV projects a project generates managers may want to know
soft rationing – may be used within firms not what rate of return project implicitly provides
because capital is unavailable but to:
because capital is unavailable, but to: equivalent to asking at what discount rate do
i l ki h di d
– counter managerial over‐optimism about projected project CFs have NPV = 0
project profitability (need to prioritize) IRR rule – internal rate of return is then
– avoid running out of managerial capacity compared with cost of capital:
hard rationing – market imperfections may cause – IRR > WACC ... accept project
market illiquidity and increase transaction costs
– IRR < WACC ... reject project
discretionary rationing – owners may avoid
raising public capital to keep control and info
‐ 13 ‐ ‐ 14 ‐
Internal Rate of Return Internal Rate of Return
Single Period Multiple Periods
solution is trivial in case one investment in case multiple periods solution cannot be
outflow in t = 0 and one return inflow in t = 1 found algebraically
CF1
C use “=IRR” function in Excel or GoalSeek for the
NPV CF0 0 interest rate that brings NPV = 0
1 r
CF1 CF2 CFT
CF1 NPV CF0 ... 0
r
CF0
1 1 IRR 1 IRR 2
1 IRR
T
IRR ?
assume you invest $ 100 and get $ 120 in year 1
CF0 = – 100, CF1 = 120
IRR = 120/100 – 1 = 20%
‐ 15 ‐ ‐ 16 ‐
Internal Rate of Return Internal Rate of Return
Question Decision Rules
consider simple cash flow patterns involving NPV rule – accept all projects with positive NPV
investment outflow in t = 0 and only inflows in IRR rule – accept investments offering rates of
t = 1 and onwards return in excess of opportunity costs of capital
will NPV increase or decrease in case discount
rate increases? Equivalence
increasing discount rate makes future cash
inflows less valuable, hence lower NPV
equivalent to NPV rule, because whenever:
– r < IRR ... NPV > 0
– r > IRR ... NPV < 0
‐ 17 ‐ ‐ 18 ‐
© Jiri Novak 3
Financial Management (JEB 045) Charles University, Prague
Internal Rate of Return Internal Rate of Return
Pitfalls
r < IRR ... NPV > 0
unique IRR is only guaranteed if initial cash
outflow(s) are followed by stream of inflows
whenever this pattern is violated, there may be
no IRR, several IRR, or interpretation may be
misleading
NPV
‐ 19 ‐ ‐ 20 ‐
Internal Rate of Return Internal Rate of Return
Pitfall 1 Pitfall 1
if CFs in individual years change sign more
than once there may be several or no IRRs
‐ 21 ‐ ‐ 22 ‐
Internal Rate of Return Internal Rate of Return
Pitfall 2 Pitfall 2
in case of mutually exclusive projects IRR can profit
give misleading decision recommendations – E: 20 000 – 10 000 = 10 000
projects E, F (machine with/without computer) – F: 35 000 – 20 000 = 15 000
requiring different initial capital outlay: ... after discounting profit NPVE < NPVF
– why do NPV and IRR send opposite signals? profit per unit capital invested
– which signal is more reasonable? – E: (20 000 – 10 000) / 10 000 = 1
– F: (35 000 – 20 000) / 20 000 = 0.75
... considering time value IRRE > IRRF
‐ 23 ‐ ‐ 24 ‐
© Jiri Novak 4
Financial Management (JEB 045) Charles University, Prague
Internal Rate of Return Internal Rate of Return
Conclusion Incremental IRR
NPV measures absolute incremental profitability, upgrading E to F (adding computer to machine)
i.e. how much extra current dollars project gives IRRF‐E = 50%, which is above WACC = 10%,
generates over what it costs therefore incremental NPVF‐E > 0
IRR measures relative profitability of every but incremental IRRF‐E = 50% is below initial
dollar invested in percentage terms project IRRE = 100% and so adding computer
consider incremental effect of upgrading E to F: reduces total IRRF = 75%, note:
IRRF = 75% = average (IRRE = 100%, IRRF‐E = 50%)
‐ 25 ‐ ‐ 26 ‐
Internal Rate of Return Internal Rate of Return
NPV or IRR? NPV or IRR?
maximizing shareholder wealth implies adopting however, NPV disregards project size so if large
all projects with return higher than cost of capital, initial capital outlays are needed NPV is sensitive
i.e. one should follow NPV rule to accuracy of future CFs prediction:
if one wants to use IRR rule, compute it on – invest $ 1 and get $ 2 back
incremental basis and check if it is higher than – invest $ 10 and get $ 11 back
cost of capital, IRRF‐E > WACC considering r = 0%, NPV of both projects is $ 1,
simple IRR rule rejects projects that are profitable NPV rule makes both projects equally attractive
(IRR > WACC) but their per unit profitability is imagine you have overstated future CF by 20%
lower than in alternative projects
– 2 ∙ 0.8 = 1.6 1.6 – 1 = 0.6 > 0
... use NPV rather than IRR – 11 ∙ 0.8 = 8.8 8.8 – 10 = –1.2 < 0
‐ 27 ‐ ‐ 28 ‐
Internal Rate of Return Summary
NPV or IRR? Conclusion
consider two projects with identical NPV but PP should never be used as key criterion
different requirements for initial investment NPV should be used to adopt all projects with
project IRR shows how far project return is above return higher than cost of capital
cost of capital, i.e. how sensitive decision to using IRR would lead to preference to short‐lived
accept/reject is to precision of CF forecast projects with little up‐front investment
if IRR is preferred it should be computed on
incremental basis and compared to cost of capital
use IRR to check how far project return is above
cost of capital, i.e. how sensitive decision to
accept/reject is to precision of CF forecast
‐ 29 ‐ ‐ 30 ‐
© Jiri Novak 5