Professional Documents
Culture Documents
BUSINESS (BBA)
MODULE I
INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES
QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES
Quantitative techniques are those technique which provide the
decision makes a systematic and powerful means of analysis, based
on quantitative data.
Classification of quantitative techniques
A) Mathematical techniques
B) Statistical techniques
C) Programming techniques
A) Mathematical techniques
A technique in which quantitative data are used along with
mathematical principles are known as mathematical techniques. It
involves
1) Permutation and Combination
Permutation means arrangement of object in a definite order.
Combination means selection of objects without considering order.
2) Set theory
It is a mathematical theory of well determined collection of objects.
3) Matrix
Matrix is a rectangular array of numbers or symbols enclosed by a
pair of brackets.
4) Determinants
It is a scalar value that is a function of the entries of a square matrix.
5) Differentiation
It is a mathematical process of finding changes in dependent variable
on the basis of changes in independent variable.
6) Integration
It is a process of finding changes in independent variable on the basis
of changes in dependent variable.
B) Statistical Techniques
Statistical techniques are those techniques which are used in
conducting statistical enquiry.
1) Collection of date
By using different methods for collecting primary and secondary
data.
2) Correlation analysis
It is used to study the degree of relationship among two or more
variables
3) Regression analysis
It is used to estimate the value of one variable for a given value of
another.
4) Index number
These measure the fluctuations in various phenomena over a period
of time.
5) Time series analysis
Analysis of time series help us to know the effect of factors which are
responsible for changes.
6) Probability theory
It provides numerical value of the likelihood of the occurrence of
events.
C) Programming Techniques
These are operation research techniques used by decision makers in
modern time.
1) Linear programming
This is used in finding a solution for optimising a given objective
under certain constraints.
2) Queuing theory
This deals with mathematical study of queues.
3) Game theory
It is used to determine the optimum strategy in a competitive
situation.
4) Decision theory
It involves making sound decision under risk and uncertainty.
5) Inventory theory
It helps for optimising the inventory levels.
6)Network programming
It is a technique of planning, scheduling, controlling and coordinating
large and complex projects comprising of number of activities and
events.
7) Simulation
It is a technique of testing a model which resembles a real life
situation.
Functions of quantitative techniques
1) To facilitates decision making.
2) To helps for scientific research
3) To help in minimising cost
4) To help in choosing an optimal strategy.
5) To enable proper use of resources.
Uses and advantages of quantitative techniques
1) Helpful in inventory management.
2) Facilitate decision making.
3) Useful in production management.
4) Proper allocation of resources.
5) Reduction in cost and minimising waiting time.
Limitations of Quantitative Techniques
1) It is very expensive.
2) It is time consuming.
3) It does not consider intangible facts.
4) It based on number of assumptions; it may lead to wrong
estimation.
5) It is a tool for decision making. It’s not decision itself.
MODULE II
TIME SERIES AND INDEX NUMBER
TIME SERIES
Time series
A time series refers to the values of a variable chronologically
ordered over a successive period of time.
Components of Time series
1. Secular trend
The general tendency of a data to increase or decrease or stagnate
over long period of time is called secular trend.
2. Seasonal variation
Seasonal variations are fluctuations within a year during the season.
These forces have similar pattern year after year.
3. Cyclical variation
Cyclic variations are periodic movements. These variations occur at
intervals of more4 than one year.
4. Random/Irregular variation
Irregular fluctuations are those caused by unusual, unexpected and
accidental events.
Method of measuring trend
1. Graphical method
Merits
a) All kinds of trends can be described with the help of this
method
b) This is the simples and easiest method
c) It helps to understand the character of time series
Demerits
a) It is highly subjective
b) It is not based on any mathematical model
c) It gives an approximate picture of tendency in the long run
d) It is not useful for further analysis of time series
2. Semi average method
Merits
a) It is simple to understand and easy to calculate
b) Everyone will get same trend line for the given set of data
c) The trend line can be extended towards both direction
Demerits
a) It is assuming the presence of linear trend
b) Two points to be joined on a graph is calculated on the basis
of average, therefore trend line is greatly influenced by
extreme values
c) Trend values are obtained by this method are not reliable
3. Moving average method
Merits
a) This method is simple to understand and easy to calculate
b) As it is based on mathematical data everyone gets same
trend line
c) This method is particularly effective if the trend of a series is
highly irregular
d) Regular cyclical variations can be completely eliminated by a
period of moving average equal to the period cycle
Demerits
a) The choice of period of moving average is subjective
b) Future perdition is not possible with the help of moving
average
c) Trend values of initial as well as end years cannot be
obtained with the help of this method
d) Irregular variations cannot be eliminated completely by this
method
e) Moving averages are generally affected by extreme values of
items
4. Least squares
Merits
a) Both future as well as intermediate values can be estimated
b) It is not subjective
c) We can all trend values
Demerits
a) Preparation of trends using this method need complex
calculation
b) Recalculation are made if an addition is made in the given
series
c) The assumption of straight-line relationship may sometimes be
misleading
d) This method does not give due importance to cyclical,
seasonal, and irregular fluctuations
e) This method can be used effectively to estimate only for
immediate future and not for distant future.
INDEX NUMBERS
Index Numbers are special kind of averages, expressed in ratio,
calculated as percentage and used as numbers.
∑ 𝐏𝟏
𝐏𝟎𝟏 = × 𝟏𝟎𝟎
∑ 𝐏𝟎
b) Simple average of price relative
Price of a commodity in the current year is taken as a percentage of the
price of corresponding item of the base year and the index is obtained by
averaging these percentage figures.
𝐏
∑ 𝟏 × 𝟏𝟎𝟎
𝐏𝟎
𝐏𝟎𝟏 =
𝐍
2. Weighted methods
Appropriate weights are assigned to various commodities in accordance
with their relative importance in group.
1) Laspeyer’s method
Quantities of base year are taken as weights, So that Laspeyer’s Method is
also known as base year weights(base year Index)
∑ 𝐩𝟏 𝐪𝟎
𝐏𝟎𝟏 = × 𝟏𝟎𝟎
∑ 𝐩𝟎 𝐪𝟎
2) Paasche’s method
Quantities of current year are taken as weights, Paasche’s Index
number also called current year index or current year weights
∑ 𝐩𝟏 𝐪𝟏
𝐏𝟎𝟏 = × 𝟏𝟎𝟎
∑ 𝐩𝟎 𝐪𝟏
∑𝑞 𝑝 ∑𝑞 𝑝
5. Fisher's Ideal Q01= √∑ 1 0 × ∑ 1 1 × 100
𝑞 𝑝 𝑞 𝑝
0 0 0 1
∑ 𝑞 1 𝑝0 ∑ 𝑞 1 𝑝1
+
∑ 𝑞 0 𝑝0 ∑ 𝑞 𝑜 𝑝1
6. Dorbish Bowley's Q01= × 100
2
∑ 𝑞1 𝑝0 +∑ 𝑞1 𝑝1
7. Marshall Edgeworth Q01= ∑ 𝑞0 𝑝0 +∑ 𝑞0 𝑝1
× 100
Value Index
Value refers to the product of price and quantity .
∑ 𝑝𝑛 𝑞𝑛
𝑉0𝑛 = × 100
∑ 𝑝0 𝑞0
Note
➢ GM is the best average in the construction of index number
➢ Method of relative is also known as arithmetic mean method
➢ When a series of index numbers for different years are expressed in
a tabular form to compare the changes in different years, then this
tabular representation of numbers is known as “index time series”.
Test of consistency
1. Time reversal test
Time reversal test is a test to determine whether a given method will work
both ways in time, forward and backward. According to Fisher “The test
is that the formula for calculating the index number should be such that it
will give the same ratio between one point of comparison and the other,
no matter which of the two is taken as base.” In other words, when the
data for any two years are treated by the same method, but with the
bases reversed, the two index numbers secured should be reciprocals of
each other so that their product is unity. Symbolically,
𝑷𝟎𝟏 × 𝑷𝟏𝟎 = 𝟏
Where 𝑃01 is the index for time “1” on time “0” as base and 𝑃10 is the
index for time “0” on time “1” as base. Laspayer’s and Paasche’s Index
numbers are not satisfying this test
2. Factor reversal test
The product of price index and quantity index should be equal to value
index, symbolically;
𝐏𝟎𝟏 × 𝐐𝟎𝟏 = 𝐕𝟎𝟏
Fisher ideal index number is the only test satisfied by the factor reversal
test.
3. Unit test
This test state that the formula for constructing and index number should
be independent of the units in which price and quantities are expressed.
All methods except simple (un weighted) aggregate methods are
satisfying this test.
4. Circular test
According to this test, if indices are constructed for year one based on
zero, for year two based on year one and for year zero based on year two,
the product of all the indices should be equal to one; symbolically the test
is represented as
𝐏𝟎𝟏 × 𝐏𝟏𝟐 × 𝐏𝟐𝟎 = 𝟏
Simple aggregative index and Kelly’s fixed base methods satisfying this
test.
Fixed base & Chain base Index numbers
1. Fixed base Index method (FBI)
All index numbers constructed during the given period are with respect to
a fixed base period.
𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫
FBI= × 𝟏𝟎𝟎
𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫
MODULE III
CORRELATION AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Correlation
Correlation is a statistical technique which can be used to study the
relationship between two or more variables.
Uses of correlation analysis
1) It helps to understand the economic behavior.
2) It helps in estimating cost, price, etc.
3) It is used as a basis for regression analysis.
4) It helps to reduce range of uncertainty.
5) It measures the degree of relationship between variables.
Types / Classification of Correlation
1) Positive correlation
When the variables are varying in the same direction, it is called
positive correlation.
2) Negative correlation
When the variables are varying in the opposite direction, it is called
negative correlation.
3) Simple correlation
If only two variables are studied in a correlation analysis, it is called
simple correlation.
4) Multiple correlation
If more than two variables are studied in a correlation analysis, it is
called multiple correlation.
5) Partial correlation
It means the measure of association between two variables, while
controlling the effect of one or more additional variables.
6) Linear correlation
It means straight line relationship between two variables.
7) Non-linear correlation
It means there is no straight line or constant relationship between
two variables.
Degrees of Correlation
1. Perfect positive correlation
If an increase in the value of one variable is followed by the same
proportion of increase in the other variable, if a decrease in value of
one variable is followed by the same proportion of decrease in the
other variable, is called perfect positive correlation.
Regression equation
It is the algebraic expression of the regression lines.
Difference between Correlation and Regression
Correlation Regression
It studies the degree of It studies the nature of
relationship between variables. relationship between variables.
It is not used for prediction. It is used for prediction.
There is no question of There must be dependent and
dependent and independent independent variables.
variable.
It used to determine degree of It is used to study cause and
relationship. effect relationship.
There may nonsense correlation. There is no nonsense regression.
MODULE IV
PROBABILITY
Set
Set is a well-defined collection of distinct objects.
Representation of Sets
1. Tabular method
In this method a set is described by the elements separated
by commas and enclosed with in braces
2. Set builder method
In this method set is represented by specifying the characteristics
property of its elements
Types of sets
1. Null set
A set containing no elements is called null or empty set
2. Single set
A set containing a single element is called single set or unit set
3. Finite set
Set consists of a finite number of elements
4. Infinite set
Set consists of a infinite number of elements
5. Equivalent set
Two sets A and B are said to be equivalent set then it contains
equal number of elements
6. Equal set
Two sets contain equal elements are called equal sets
7. Subset
If every element of A is an element of B then A is called subset of
B
8. Universal set
If all the sets under consideration are subset of a fixed set U is
called Universal set
9. Disjoint set
Two sets A and B are said to be disjoint set if no elements A in B
Venn diagram
The relationship between sets can be represented by means of
diagram is known as Venn diagram.
Probability
Probability refers to the chance of happening or non-happening of
event.
Sample Point
Every indecomposable outcome of a random experiment is called
sample point.
Sample Space
It is a set containing all the sample points of that random
experiment.
Event
It is a subset of sample space.
Exhaustive events
It includes all possible outcomes of random experiment.
Dependent event
Happening of one event affect the happening of other is called
dependent event.
Permutation
It means arrangement of object in definite order.
Combination
It means selection of object without considering their order.
Classical definition of probability
If a random experiment results ‘n’ equally likely, mutually exclusive
and exhaustive number of cases of which ‘m’ cases are favourable to
the occurrence of an event ‘A’, then the probability of the event ‘A’ is
m
P(A) =
n