MEMORANDUM

TO: Senator Janet Buckner

FROM: Rebecca Smith, Analyst, Social Worker, Taxpayer
DATE: February 16, 2022
RE: Crime in Colorado

Crime on the rise in Colorado

Crime prevalence in Colorado communities has attracted a lot of attention within the past few
years, due to a marked increase in certain types of crimes since the beginning of the pandemic. 1
According to a 2021 study from the Common Sense Institute, which bills itself as a non-partisan
research institute, crime has “undeniably and dramatically increased over the last decade in
Colorado.”2 Among its findings, from 2010-2019, the annual murder rate increased by 8%,
motor vehicle theft by 6%, and assault by 3%.

The study has caused controversy, however. Many say that the Institute, while claiming non-
partisanship, is in fact biased by a conservative ideology. 3 The authors claim that Colorado’s
recent policy changes to the criminal justice system, such as reducing jail sentences, need to be
“monitored to ensure the costs from the unintended…consequences do not outweigh the
anticipated benefits.”4 This report attracted enough attention for Governor Jared Polis to refute
its claims in a statement, calling much of the findings abjectly false. 5

So, what’s really going on here? Is crime reaching new, disturbing heights in the state because
of new policies limiting the scope of the criminal justice system? Or is much of the concern
about crime prevalence disproportional to the reality? Looking the year-over-year data of crime
prevalence in Colorado, it is indeed true that rates of certain types of crime are on the rise.
Among them are vehicular theft (377.2 incidences out of 100,000 people in 2019 to 524.3 in
2020), aggravated assault (245.2 incidences in 2019 to 286.9), homicide (4 incidences in 2019 to
5.1 in 2020), and arson (15.6 incidences in 2019 to 22.9 in 2020). 6 But other crimes are staying
at steady rates or are declining. These crimes include rape, larceny, burglary, and robbery. 7
1
Brauchler, G., Morrissey, M., Brown, C., & Eastburg, A. (2021). The Colorado Crime Wave: An Economic Analysis of
Crime and the Need for Data Driven Solutions.
https://commonsenseinstituteco.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/CSI_CRIME_FULL-
REPORT_DEC2021_FINAL49.pdf
2
Brauchler et. al., 2021.
3
McCormick-Cavanagh, C. (2022, February 9). Does the Common Sense Institute Live Up to Its Name? Westword.
https://www.westword.com/news/common-sense-institute-colorado-think-tank-13277925
4
Brauchler et. al., 2021.
5
Boyd, Shaun.“Crime Tsunami”: New Study By Two Former District Attorneys Finds Colorado’s Crime Rate Worse
Than Other States. (2021, December 10). https://denver.cbslocal.com/2021/12/10/colorado-worse-crime-rate/
6
Federal Bureau of Investigation. (2021). Federal Bureau of Investigation Crime Data Explorer. Cloud.gov.
https://crime-data-explorer.app.cloud.gov/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend
7
Schmelzer, Elise. How bad is crime in Colorado? We examined 35 years of data to put today’s trends in
context. (2022, January 23). The Denver Post. https://www.denverpost.com/2022/01/23/colorado-crime-rate-

1
Notably, the rise in crime since the pandemic is matched by many other states and is not
unique to Colorado.8

What “causes” crime?

Crimes rates are influenced by a huge number of factors. They are extremely varied and no one
factor can be solely responsible. At the individual level, these can include things like inadequate
family environments, poor school performance and truancy, being around delinquent peers,
and poverty and unemployment. At the community level, factors at play include inequality,
poverty, and unemployment levels, a diminished ability for communities to respond to criminal
activity, and the presence of gangs and organized crime.9

Moreover, criminologists agree that many circumstances can increase the risk of criminal
behavior, but this does not mean that such circumstances always lead to criminal behavior.10
Still, many Coloradoans are concerned about the spike in crime rates: according to a CDE
survey, 41% of us consider crime to be a serious problem.11

Criminologists warn that connecting crimes to their causes takes years of research and it is
short-sighted for politicians to try to pin the blame on an opposing party’s policy platform. 12
Certainly, rising crime rates can cause a lot of finger pointing by politicians along party lines. On
the other hand, when there is a drop in crime rates following new policies targeting crime,
politicians are just as quick to declare themselves victorious.

No better example is former New York governor Rudy Giuliani’s “broken windows” policing
policy that disproportionately targeted Black people and people of color in stop and frisk
operations of questionable legality, under the theory that increasing arrests of minor offenses
would stop bigger offenses down the line. While there was a precipitous drop in crime following
these practices, no definitive evidence exists that points to “broken windows” policing as the
cause of that drop.13 Regardless, any claimed effectiveness of the policy can never justify the
irrevocable harm these operations caused to Black people and people of color.

Governor Polis backs Public Safety Package

homicides-shootings-assaults/
8
Schmelzer, 2022.
9
Bulletin, J., & Weatherburn, D. (2001). Contemporary Issues in Crime and Justice Number 54 What Causes
Crime? https://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Publications/CJB/cjb54.pdf
10
Bulletin & Weatherburn, 2001
11
The Colorado Health Foundation Poll (2021). Copulsepoll.org. Retrieved February 17, 2022, from
https://www.copulsepoll.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/2021%20Pulse%20-%20Master%20Deck%20-%20Final
%20%28ENGLISH%29.pdf
12
Bulletin & Weatherburn, 2001.
13
Sterbenz, C. (n.d.). How New York City Became Safe Again. Business Insider. Retrieved February 17, 2022, from
https://www.businessinsider.com/criticism-for-giulianis-broken-windows-theory-2014-12

2
The proposed bill, HB SS2-001 Crime Prevention through Safer Streets, is being put forth as part
of a larger crime prevention package in the state that totals $113 million. The package includes
other bills that support the development of co-responder models, where social services and
mental health professionals respond to mental health calls instead of law enforcement, address
law enforcement shortages through funding for training and recruitment efforts, provide grant
funding for agencies that work to prevent domestic violence, invest in behavioral health
programs, and help fund the Colorado Bureau of Investigation to investigate serious crimes. 14
The bill itself would earmark $10.3 million in funding for allocation to the Department of Public
Services.15 According to Polis, lawmakers’ goal is to make Colorado one of the 10 safest states
within the next 5 years.16 Given that Colorado is Democrat controlled in the house, senate, and
gubernatorial branches, it seems quite feasible that the package will become law.

Opposition to the Public Safety Package

Colorado Republicans say the Democrat backed package fails to undo laws that Governor Polis
signed several years ago that they say have “…softened penalties on criminals and hurt law
enforcement agencies with increased restrictions and unfunded mandates, making it difficult for
them to do their job.”17 Republicans support an alternative bill package that would provide
grants for law enforcement training, increase law enforcement funding, and prevent criminals
from being released from prison if they have multiple violent offences on their records.18

The current package also lacks robust support from law enforcement. Three of Colorado’s
largest law enforcement groups released a statement joining Republicans in decrying recent
policies signed into law during Polis’s tenure. They say these new policies reflect anti-law
enforcement sentiment in congress and directly contribute to rising crime and the inability of
law enforcement to recruit and retain new officers.19

CPTED as a crime-reduction strategy

14
Prentzel, Olivia. Colorado’s governor backs crime-prevention package amid continuing scrutiny from Republicans,
some police groups. (2022, February 10). The Colorado Sun. https://coloradosun.com/2022/02/10/jared-polis-
backs-public-safety-package-crime/
15
Crime Prevention through Safer Streets, no. SB22-001, Senate. (2022). Retrieved February 16, 2022, from
https://leg.colorado.gov/bills/sb22-001
16
Polis, lawmakers unveil public safety plan. (2022, February 10). www.youtube.com. Retrieved February 17, 2022,
from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pel9flHFQk4
17
Prentzel, 2022.
18
Prentzel, 2022.
19
Del Puerto, Luige. (2022, February 10). Law enforcement groups withhold support for Polis’ public safety pitch,
although they back other parts. Colorado Politics. Retrieved February 17, 2022, from
https://www.coloradopolitics.com/legislature/law-enforcement-groups-withhold-support-for-polis-public-safety-
pitch-although-they-back-other-parts/article_fd1e3cc4-8a38-11ec-8f57-7bc393e88a66.html

3
The proposed bill is a grant program intended for governmental agencies to help fund and
implement an approach to crime reduction known as Crime Prevention through Environmental
Design (CPTED). CPTED is a place-based intervention targeting crime “hot spots” in a community
where there are higher levels of crime. The main tenets of CPTED include increasing a sense of
territorial control and ownership of community members in a given area by increasing natural
surveillance, or residents’ ability to casually observe their outdoor environment and thus crime
activity, improving community image through things like graffiti removal, improved trash
collection, and general beautification, and access control, which refers to designing buildings in
ways that limit access to them through things like landscaping and road barriers.20 In the text of
the bill, it details a few CPTED elements that would be utilized: among them are better lighting,
improved trash collection, access control, territorial reinforcement, and improved space
management.21 CPTED also advocates for input from key stakeholders in area redesign, such as
community members, organizations and law enforcement.22 In recent years, CPTED has gained
widespread global support from numerous countries and the UN.23

Despite the enthusiasm, it is often difficult to understand how or why CPTED reduces crime.
CPTED studies are often subject to a huge variety of limitations like oversimplification of CPTED
principles, not taking into account the possibility of mere crime displacement to other areas not
within CPTED boundaries, or the challenges of generalizing findings to other communities that
differ culturally or demographically.24 To further muddy the waters, some people argue that the
core tenets of CPTED, such as natural surveillance, are not effective if there isn’t enough
community connection to inspire people to care.25 An over-reliance of CPTED may also result in
negative outcomes, like over-use of access control leading to a “fortress mentality” where
community members retreat behind walls, contributing to isolation.26

Importantly, however, evidence from many studies seems to indicate that CPTED is “effective,”
with the caveat that it is uncertain that this effectiveness can be truly understood through
empirical analysis.27 In any case, there seems to be a definitive connection between crime
reduction rates and CPTED interventions, particularly if the intervention uses “second
generation” CPTED approaches in addition to the techniques mentioned above, known as “first
generation” CPTED. “Second Generation” CPTED, a newer addition to the model, works to
strengthen community connection and cohesion through investments and programs at the

20
International CPTED Association (ICA) - Primer in CPTED - What is CPTED? (n.d.). www.cpted.net.
https://www.cpted.net/Primer-in-CPTED
21
SB22-001, Senate (2022).
22
(2003, October). Crime Prevention through Environmental Design Guidebook [Review of Crime Prevention
through Environmental Design Guidebook]. Rems.ed.gov; National Crime Prevention Council.
https://rems.ed.gov/docs/Mobile_docs/CPTED-Guidebook.pdf
23
Cozens, P., & Love, T. (2015). A Review and Current Status of Crime Prevention through Environmental Design
(CPTED). Journal of Planning Literature, 30(4), 393–412. https://doi.org/10.1177/0885412215595440
24
Cozens & Love, 2015.
25
Cozens & Love, 2015.
26
Cozens, P. M., Saville, G., & Hillier, D. (2005). Crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED): a review
and modern bibliography. Property Management, 23(5), 328–356. https://doi.org/10.1108/02637470510631483
27
Cozens et. al., 2005.

4
community level.28 Crime Prevention through Safer Streets appears to just barely acknowledge
some of these “second generation” principles in its creation of a committee that would include
input from “organizations that represent community interests.”29

CPTED is also argued to be a relatively cost-effective option in comparison to interventions that

rely on increased effort or capacity from law enforcement personnel and expensive control
mechanisms such as security cameras and locks.30 Some of the improvements detailed in the bill,
such as improved lighting, are shown to be quite cost effective when considering the financial
costs of crime in contrast.31

The disparate racial impacts of crime and imprisonment

When considering this bill, it is important to take into account that communities of color suffer
greater impacts of crime on both ends: they are more likely to be victims of crime and are also
more likely to have interactions with the criminal justice system. According to a report by The
Sentencing Project, in 2008, African Americans were 78% more likely to have experienced
burglary, 133% more likely to experience motor vehicle theft, and Hispanics were 46% more
likely than non-Hispanics to have experienced property crimes. In 2012, it was found that Black
people are 66% more likely than White people to have been victims of serious violent crime. 32

Within the criminal justice system, Colorado mirrors the rest of the country in its staggering
rates of incarceration. The prison population in Colorado has soared 504% since 1983. 33 Within
the prison system, white people are underrepresented, making up 71% of the general
population but only 46% of the prison population, and Latinx and Black people are
overrepresented, with Latinx people comprising 20% of the general population but 31% of the
prison population, and Black people making 5% of the general population but 18% of the prison
population.34

In light of these extreme rates of incarceration and racial disparities in victimization, arrests and
incarceration, there has been a push to move away from using arrest and incarceration as the
main public safety strategy to community-based or place-based efforts like CPTED. It seems
clear that our current strategies are clearly not closing the gap in these racial disparities. 35
Crime Prevention through Safer Streets can be seen as part of this push for alternative
strategies to manage crime and increase public safety. This bill has the potential to help address

28
Cozens & Love, 2015.
29
SB22-001, Senate (2022).
30
Cozens & Love, 2015.
31
Cozens et. al., 2005.
32
RACE AND PUNISHMENT: RACIAL PERCEPTIONS OF CRIME AND SUPPORT FOR PUNITIVE POLICIES. (2014). The
Sentencing Project. https://www.sentencingproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Race-and-Punishment.pdf
33
(n.d.). Incarceration Trends in Colorado. Vera.org; Vera Institute of Justice. Retrieved February 16, 2022, from
https://www.vera.org/downloads/pdfdownloads/state-incarceration-trends-colorado.pdf
34
Incarceration Trends in Colorado.
35
ccjrcweb. (2016). Making Change - Colorado Criminal Justice Reform Coalition. Colorado Criminal Justice Reform
Coalition. https://www.ccjrc.org/making-change/

5
these issues in a CPTED approach that will decrease victimization rates and avoid increasing
arrests and incarceration rates.

Recommendations

If we view the problem of public safety through a holistic lens, rates of crime can’t be the only
measurement we use in determining whether a program is working. Other measures of success,
like community members’ perception of safety, well-being, community cohesion, and ability to
lead the direction their community takes in addressing public safety should be considered too.
In this respect, Crime Prevention through Safer Streets does not entirely meet the mark.

Although the bill would require government agencies to appoint “persons from organizations
representing community interests”36 to the advisory committee that would serve as the main
players in revitalization efforts, such language is vague and open to interpretation. If there was
clarification on what counts as an organization representing community interests, this could
help guide governmental agencies to make decisions that align with community concerns. Also,
the addition of several seats on the advisory committee for regular community members could
make this bill more effective at holistically addressing public safety, as it would help ensure that
a “top-down” approach to CPTED could be avoided.

Additionally, there appears to be no attempt to incorporate elements of “second generation”

CPTED approaches, which actively work to address other elements outside of design that
promote public safety and well-being. The hallmarks of a safe community include many
opportunities for positive interactions among community members, a full range of
programming supporting social cohesion, and community dialogue and partnerships 37, all
factors this bill neglects.

One way this bill could transform on a deeper level to better accommodate second generation
CPTED principles is by making CPTED initiatives an outgrowth of problem-based learning (PBL),
where facilitators help community stakeholders design and implement their own CPTED
trainings to generate bottom-up solutions based primarily on community input.38 Through this
model, the advisory committee could serve as a secondary group to make these ideas a reality,
as opposed to the main solution generator.

As a final note, it must be hoped that other bills in this crime reduction package will work in
tandem with Crime Prevention through Safer Streets to invest in building safe, resourced, and
strong communities, all of which lends itself to reduced crime and protects communities in the
long-term.

36
SB22-001, Senate (2022).
37
Atlas, R. I. (2013). 21st century security and CPTED : designing for critical infrastructure protection and crime
prevention. Crc Press.
38
Atlas, R. I. (2013).