Engineering Structures 241 (2021) 112448

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Engineering Structures
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/engstruct

Influencing factors on creep displacement assessment of bonded fasteners

in concrete
Elisabeth Stierschneider a, *, Alexios E. Tamparopoulos b, Kenton E. McBride c,
Konrad Bergmeister a
a
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Institute of Structural Engineering, Peter-Jordan-Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
b
Risk Software Gmbh, Softwarepark 35, 4232 Hagenberg, Austria
c
Hilti AG, Feldkircher Straße 100, 9494 Schaan, Liechtenstein

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The long-term sustained load behaviour of bonded fasteners in concrete is tested and assessed in accordance with
Power-law extrapolation European Assessment Documents (EADs) 330087 and 330499. In these EADs, the measured displacements
Initial displacement during sustained loading are projected to a 50-year working life using a power-law regression and extrapolation
Creep displacement
combining an initial displacement δ0 and a time-dependent creep term a∙tb. The projection of sustained load
Bonded fasteners in concrete
displacement data is sensitive to methods for determining and employing the initial displacement, data sampling
Long-term behaviour
choices for regression, and the length of testing. To illustrate these sensitivities, six sustained load tests with an
extended test duration of 300 days and high displacement measurement frequency were conducted and
numerically investigated. The aim of this paper is to address and verify the influence of various parameters on the
displacement projection. In particular, the determination of the initial displacement, sampling window, and their
proper use in the application of the Findley power-law method for creep displacement extrapolations are eval­
uated. To that end, different scenarios are assessed varying the time step between the displacement measure­
ments, the size of the time window of measured displacements used for the regression analysis and use of the
initial displacement in regression. A final check on the appropriateness and conservatism of the use of a power-
law regression is proposed. Based on this analysis, proposals for the assessment of long-term displacement of
bonded fasteners in concrete under sustained load are made.

1. Introduction investigations is given in two NCHRP Reports ([4,5]) published by the

Post-installed bonded fasteners consist of steel elements, which are
placed in predrilled cylindrical boreholes in concrete members filled
with injection mortar (adhesive). Bonded fasteners are used as an
alternative to cast-in-place and mechanical anchors where, for example,
more flexible embedments and/or smaller edge distances and spacings
are required. The benefits of bonded fasteners, however, are accompa­
nied by trade-offs, including required curing times before load appli­
cation and inherent creep behaviour under sustained loading conditions
[1,2]. In contrast to other fastener types, the load-bearing capacity of
bonded fasteners may be controlled by measures to avoid creep failure
under sustained loading over the fastener’s working life [3]. Therefore,
the long-term creep performance is of great interest for engineering
practice employing bonded fasteners. An overview of sustained load
National Transportation Safety Board.
To account for the presence of creep behaviour, sustained load tests
are conducted in bonded fastener assessment procedures. The aim of
such testing is to prevent creep failure of the fastening by extrapolating
displacement behaviour under constant tension load over the fastener’s
working life and comparing that behaviour to safe levels. Different
methods have been proposed, including the time-to-failure method, a
rheological approach, and various numerical extrapolation techniques.
Concerning the time-to-failure method bonded fasteners are subjected to
different stress levels as percentage of the ultimate short-term strength
and the time to failure is recorded. Based on a trend line fit the time to
failure for a certain stress level can be projected [4–8]. The rheological
approach is based on a modified Burgers model, which aims to predict
the nonlinear viscoelastic deformation behaviour by combining material

* Corresponding author at: Institute of Structural Engineering, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Peter-Jordan-Straße 82, 1190 Vienna,
Austria
E-mail address: elisabeth.stierschneider@boku.ac.at (E. Stierschneider).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2021.112448
Received 17 July 2020; Received in revised form 12 April 2021; Accepted 22 April 2021
Available online 8 May 2021
0141-0296/© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
E. Stierschneider et al.
properties derived from pull-out, short-term creep, and degradation
tests [9,10]. Another numerical simulation method derives material
properties of the adhesive using creep-nanoindentation techniques [11].
Further numerical simulation models can be found in [12–14]. Existing
numerical methods based strictly on material properties have suffered
from the inability to connect material properties to in-service anchor
behaviour and are therefore not currently useful in practice. Findley
[15] characterized the creep of viscoelastic polymers with a power-law
expression separating time-independent elastic (initial) displacement
and time-dependent creep displacement expressed as a power function.
The creep displacement employed hyperbolic sine relationships between
applied stress and material constants for calculation of the power-law
constants. For practical purposes, this original explanation has been
simplified by empirical regression to determine the power-law constants
of the time-dependent creep displacement term a∙tb without relying on
quantification of the underlying material properties [16]. This creep
term is additively combined with the time-independent initial
displacement, δ0. This procedure has been designated the Findley
power-law methodology, which is adopted in the relevant assessment
documents for bonded fasteners [17,18]. This displacement extrapola­
tion method, however, is sensitive to the choice and mathematical
treatment of the initial displacement δ0 and the size of the time window
of measured displacements (sampling window) used for the regression
analysis to obtain the power-law constants of the creep term. This
research systematically investigated the influences on the Findley
methodology using sustained load data on adhesive anchors in concrete
with an extended test duration of 300 days and a high measurement
frequency. Based on this analysis, recommendations for more consistent
and accurate creep displacement extrapolations in bonded anchor
assessment in the base material concrete are made.
First the test procedure for sustained load tests on bonded fasteners
as prescribed in the EAD 330499-00-0601 [17] and the mathematical
and mechanical background of the Findley power-law method are
described in Section 2, followed by a detailed description of the exper­
imental data set used for the analysis in Section 3. At the beginning of
the main Section 4 the definition of the initial displacement δ0 is suc­
cessfully identified using the curvature as numerical measure. The
proper procedure for the application of the Findley method in terms of
the usage of δ0 and the regression on the power-law expression, which is
expressed as “translated” case for the further investigation, is also
introduced in Section 4.1. Different methods for determining the initial
displacement δ0 (i.e., the Individual Displacement Method and the
Reference Displacement Method) are introduced in Section 4.2 and
assessed in Section 4.3. The influence of the initial displacement on the
prediction is evaluated in a parameter study using the introduced
“translated” and the “non-translated” displacement curves in Section
4.4. In the latter eight scenarios with varying parameters are established
in order to quantify the difference between the “translated” and the
“non-translated” case. In this parameter study the time step between
displacement measurements, the point in measurement time when the
extrapolation is done, the size of the time window of measured dis­
placements used for the regression and the number of points used for the
regression are varied. An approach to graphically verify the conserva­
tism of the use of the power-law function to describe creep data is
addressed in Section 4.5. Finally, Section 5 closes with conclusions and
recommendations based on the presented analysis.
2. Background
2.1. Test procedure for sustained load tests
Sustained load tests in EAD 330499-00-0601, Section 2.2.2.6 [17]
are conducted at normal ambient temperature (+21 ± 3 ◦ C) and at
maximum long-term temperature with a test duration for both of at least
three months. Tests are conducted in a non-cracked, low-strength con­
crete (C20/25) using a confined test setup. After installation and the
2
Engineering Structures 241 (2021) 112448
manufacturer’s specified curing time, a constant tension load Nsust is
applied with a 5% accuracy [19] and the displacements are measured for
the entirety of the sustained load period with the following minimum
time steps ts as defined in [17]:
• ts1 = 10 minutes during the first hour
• ts2 = 1 hour during the next 6 hours
• ts3 = 1 day during the next 10 days
• ts4 = 5 to 10 days from then on until the end of the measurements
Measured displacements for sustained load tests at normal ambient
temperature are extrapolated to a working life of 50 years (δ50y) using
Findley’s power-law methodology, while tests at maximum long-term
temperature are extrapolated to 10 years (δ10y) due to a lower ex­
pected time of exposure to high temperatures during service [17]. This
extrapolation procedure is conducted for each individual test and the
displacement extrapolations are then compared with a displacement at
loss of adhesion δu,adh, which is derived from short-term reference tests
on specimens identical to the sustained load specimen. If this pass/fail
criterion for the extrapolated displacements is not fulfilled for all tests,
the applied sustained load in testing is required to be reduced. Addi­
tionally, the residual load capacity Nu,Residual of the bonded fasteners at
the end of sustained load tests is required to achieve at least 90% of the
ultimate load Nu from the reference tests. For tests that do not meet the
residual load capacity requirement, the proportion of the residual load
capacity to 90% of the reference capacity is assigned as a reduction
factor. A typical relationship between the reference, the sustained load,
and the residual load tests for assessing the long-term behaviour of
bonded fasteners under sustained load is schematically shown in Fig. 1,
noting that other definitions of the displacement at loss of adhesion
described in [17] may control.
2.2. Mathematical and mechanical background
Findley’s power-law methodology is an extrapolation method based
on numerical observations rather than on physical justification [20],
originally used for predicting the long-term creep behaviour of visco­
elastic materials at constant stress [16]. This power-law model employs
a regression procedure to produce two constants and is therefore easy to
use in practice. Application of this model to bonded fasteners in concrete
is based on simplified assumptions, including that stresses do not
redistribute during the regression period, that creep components from a
variety of bonding materials with different formulae and rates of curing
can be captured in a power-law expression, and that the confined creep
behaviour in testing translates to unconfined behaviour in practice [21].
The power-law regression and extrapolation of displacement as­
sumes that the creep behaviour of the adhesive remains in the secondary
stage [21]. Avoidance of tertiary creep and the rupture, therefore, relies
on the displacement limits described in Section 2.1 and the assessment
Fig. 1. Schematic relationship between reference, sustained load and residual
load tests for the evaluation of the creep behaviour of bonded fasteners, as
currently defined in [17]
E. Stierschneider et al. Engineering Structures 241 (2021) 112448

of the conservatism of the use of a power-law regression as described in from short-term tests. The defined sustained load level of 42% was
Section 4.5. specified by the manufacturer as part of a product qualification process.
In EAD 330499–00-0601, Section 2.2.2.6 [17], Findley’s power-law The sustained load was applied within 151 seconds with pneumatic
methodology (termed the “Findley method” in the EAD) is employed as cylinders (Fig. 2(a)) connected in parallel, assuring equal loading to all
follows: specimens. Since the air pressure can only be controlled manually via a
pressure control valve, the load application was neither force- nor
δ(t) = δ0 + a⋅tb (1)
displacement-controlled. An advantage of the pneumatic cylinders
compared to other load application systems is the continuous adjust­
where
ment of the air pressure to reach the target load, which results in only
δ(t) = the displacement at time t,
minor fluctuations of the sustained load throughout the test period [26].
δ0 = the initial displacement under sustained load and
For the six reference tests, which were installed and cured under the
a, b = fitting parameters determined by regression
same environmental conditions as the sustained load tests, a different
The term δ0 can be interpreted as the elastic displacement caused by
test setup (Fig. 2(b)) was used to prevent damage of the pneumatic
application of load. While creep behaviour will, of course, occur during
cylinders at failure. The reference tests were displacement-controlled at
the loading period of 1 to 3 minutes [22], it will be shown in Section 4.3
a speed of 0.08 mm/s, which results in a loading duration between 41
and Section 4.5 respectively, that it is conservative to include the creep
and 65 seconds for the single reference test specimens, with an average
during loading in the assumed value of δ0. In this interpretation, δ0 is the
of 51 seconds.
recorded displacement immediately after completion of loading and is
The displacements under sustained load for the six specimens were
assumed as time-independent and completely elastic. In the time-
recorded with digital transducers with a 0.001 mm resolution and an
dependent second term a∙tb, the parameter a describes the magnitude
expanded measurement uncertainty of ± 0.30% [27]. For the reference
and b describes the shape, or velocity [23], of the creep curve. Both
tests displacement transducers with the same resolution of 0.001 mm
parameters are determined by a regression using the least-squares
and a slightly higher expanded measurement uncertainty of ± 0.80%
method in the relevant EADs. It is noted, however, that analysis based
[28] were used for the displacement measurements. All measured dis­
on ordinary least squares (OLE) can be sensitive to outliers and heter­
placements were normalized to the highest measured displacement of
oscedasticity. In these cases, regression methods based on maximum
Test No. 4 at the end of testing period (Fig. 3) and the overall recording
likelihood estimation (MLE) may be more robust in determining fitting
time steps for the measured displacements were 10 seconds for the first
parameters [24,25]. The time considered for creep behaviour, t, is
three days, 10 minutes for the next four days, and one hour afterward
assumed to begin at the completion of loading. For the purposes of this
until sustained loading was stopped at day 300.
paper, the a∙tb component of displacement is termed the creep
Fluctuations in the recorded displacement data were attributed to
displacement, δcreep.
temperature changes in the test chamber during the sustained load
exposure period. The coefficient of variation (CoV) of the measured
3. Experimental methods
displacement curves at day 300 was 21.8%. This CoV value is typical for
sustained load tests on bonded fasteners in concrete. However, the dis­
To investigate the effect of δ0 and other parameters on the long-term
tance between the measurement curves is nearly constant over the
displacement prediction, six replicates of epoxy-based bonded fasteners
duration of the experiments (Fig. 3), indicating that the difference be­
with size M12 threaded rod and an effective embedment depth of hef =
tween displacement measurements was predominantly caused by the
70 mm were used. Sustained load tests were conducted at normal
difference in initial displacements, which is explored in detail in Section
ambient temperature (+21 ± 3 ◦ C) for 300 days with a confined test
4. Conceivable reasons for the strongly scattering initial displacements
setup, loading the fasteners to 42% of the ultimate bond strength derived
include varying placements relative to the center of the borehole and the

Fig. 2. (a) Pneumatic test setup for the confined sustained load tests; (b) Test setup for the confined reference and residual load tests.

3
E. Stierschneider et al.
Fig. 3. Measured displacements for the test specimens during sustained loading.
stiffness of the concrete keys inside of the borehole.
The force-displacement curves of the reference tests are shown in
Section 4.2 in this paper. However the residual load tests are not shown,
because the aim is to investigate the influence of the initial displacement
δ0 and other parameters on the displacement extrapolation and not a
product qualification. Consequently, neither the displacement at loss of
adhesion δu,adh nor the residual load capacity criterion is evaluated in
this context. The reference tests are only used to present an alternative
method for the determination of the initial displacement based on these
reference tests in Section 4.2 and 4.3 respectively.
Two data pre-processing steps were taken:
1) A pool adjacent violators algorithm (PAVA) time series smoothing
procedure was used to overcome data inconsistencies due to the
measurement resolution and influence of small temperature varia­
tions on the instrumentation. This technique is an interpolation
method based on a linear order isotonic regression to obtain a strictly
increasing displacement curve, not constrained to a certain form of
the fitted curve, which enables a fitted curve much closer to the real
measurements. It is also used in conjunction with an interpolation
method in order to obtain a displacement value at every second for
the following verification in Section 4.1.
2) The measurement times from all tests were transformed to a common
relative time with the same start and the time scale of the displace­
ment measurements is used for interpolating other measured quan­
tities of interest, such as the ambient temperature and the applied
load Nsust. These two quantities were monitored during the entire
measurement time to ensure compliance with the requirements
stated in Section 2.1.
4. Assessment of variables influencing displacement
extrapolation
4.1. Verification of the definition of δ0 using the curvature and proper use
of δ0
The curvature κ of a plane curve y = y(x) at any point (x0, y0) ex­
presses the degree of bending of the curve at that point, and is defined as:
’’
y
κ= (2)
(1 + y’ 2 )3/2
where y’ and y’’ are the first and the second derivatives of y, calculated
at x = x0, respectively. The curvature is a measure of how much a curve
4
Engineering Structures 241 (2021) 112448
deviates from the straight line, as perfectly linear segments exhibit zero
curvature and high curvature values correspond to local bending, which
is assumed to occur during changes in stress states.
In order to obtain a smooth enough displacement curve to reveal the
specimen-specific bending behaviour, displacement values every second
are interpolated from the measurement data either using a combination
of cubic interpolation and isotonic regression, or directly a monotone-
preserving cubic interpolation method, exemplarily shown for Test
No. 1 in Fig. 4, which is illustrative of all other tests. For reference, the
applied load is also displayed in this figure. As a result of the beginning
of loading, the displacement curve enters a bending phase, where the
curve strongly deviates from a straight line, which is expressed with
large non-zero curvature values. The sign of the curvature, determined
by the sign of the second derivative, indicates time segments when the
displacement curve is concave (negative) or convex (positive). However,
most of the deflection points (where the curvature is zero), especially
after the completion of loading, do not reflect a transition between
concavity and convexity, but result from local and insignificant distur­
bances in the monotonic behaviour of the rate of change, due to mea­
surement uncertainty. As the rate of change reduces, the bending effect
diminishes, and eventually the curve becomes again nearly a straight
line, indicating that the loading phase has completed, which is readily
seen in Fig. 4. Thus, where the time of loading is not recorded, but the
displacements are recorded with sufficient frequency, the curvature can
be used to determine the end of loading, which serves as the cut-off
between initial displacement and creep displacement. To determine
when the curve finally enters the (nearly) zero-curvature zone, it suffices
to determine when the curvature drops below a certain threshold, which
never exceeds afterwards. This value can be computed as the maximal
curvature observed in a time segment when it is known that the loading
has been completed. The threshold value was calculated separately for
each displacement curve, and in all cases it was 4.7 ∙ 10-5 with a coef­
ficient of variation of just 2.4%.
The prescribed procedure to perform a regression on the power-law
expression and the proper usage of the initial displacement δ0 is as
follows:
1) In a plot with time on the x axis and displacement on the y axis, shift
the plotted time such that t = 0 corresponds to the end of initial
displacement (i.e., when loading is completed), omitting all data
with t < 0.
2) Subtract the initial displacement δ0 from the time-shifted displace­
ment curve. The resulting curve now begins at t = 0 with δ = 0.
E. Stierschneider et al.
Fig. 4. (a) Development of the load application over the first 400 seconds of
testing; (b) Development of the measured displacements, and (c) Development
of the curvature.
3) Choose the time window of displacement data to be used for
regression (e.g., the last 20 data points as prescribed in [17]).
Perform a least-squares regression analysis on this segment of the
translated displacement curve to obtain parameters a and b.
4) Perform the extrapolation in accordance with Eq. (1), adding back
the initial displacement δ0 to the time-dependent term a∙tb, calcu­
lated with the obtained parameters a and b to the desired long-term
displacement (e.g., 50 years).
This procedure is called “translated” case in the remainder of the
paper. The “non-translated” case is assigned where a regression is per­
formed directly on the measured displacement curve to obtain the pa­
rameters a and b, without subtracting the initial displacement and
corresponding time first. This procedure is performed for every indi­
vidual sustained load test, resulting in unique initial displacement δ0 and
regression parameters a and b for each measured displacement curve.
4.2. Determination of the initial displacement based on the reference tests
An alternative method to determine initial displacement, which is
often used until now where no information about the time for
5
Engineering Structures 241 (2021) 112448
completion of loading is available, estimates the initial displacement
δ0 based strictly on the reference tests [29]. In this method, termed the
“Reference Displacement Method” for the purposes of this paper, δ0 is
defined as the corresponding displacement in the reference tests at the
same load as the applied sustained load Nsust. Fig. 5 shows the normal­
ized displacements from reference tests. Since the reference tests are not
directly associated to the long-term tests under sustained load, only the
mean value of the displacements at a load level of Nsust from the refer­
ence tests can be used. This mean value from the reference tests is used
as initial displacement for the sustained load tests, which is subtracted
before the regression analysis is performed.
The Reference Displacement Method was applied to the six reference
tests (Table 1), resulting in a mean initial displacement δ0 from the
reference tests of 56.2% of the highest measured displacement in the
sustained load tests. The CoV of the initial displacements from the
reference tests was 2.6%.
4.3. Comparison between initial displacement methods
Use of the individual sustained load displacement curves for the
determination of the initial displacement as described in Section 4.1 is
termed the “Individual Displacement Method” for the purposes of this
paper. The Individual Displacement Method represents the specimen-
specific displacement behaviour of each sustained load test. Based on
this method a coefficient of variation of 43.9% for the initial displace­
ment is obtained, which is much higher than the CoV of the initial
displacement from the reference tests with 2.6%.
Fig. 6 shows the displacement curves presented in Fig. 3 after sub­
traction of the initial displacement δ0 using the Individual Displacement
Method (blue lines) and the Reference Displacement Method (grey
lines). After the subtraction of the initial displacement the curves show
the portion of displacement attributed to creep. It is clear that the In­
dividual Displacement Method produces a much more consistent creep
behaviour after initial displacement is subtracted. The coefficient of
variation of the blue lines at day 300 is 6.0%, while the CoV from the
grey lines is 21.8%, suggesting that the methodology of deriving the
initial displacement from individual tests is significantly more accurate.
For this specific data set, it can be seen that the Reference Displacement
Method produces negative creep displacement for some curves. Addi­
tionally, the Reference Displacement Method only leads to a vertical
shift of the curves and consequently the regression is not performed on
the creep part of the displacements.
As described in Section 3, the measured displacements during sus­
tained load testing show a 21.8% CoV at day 300, whereas the CoV of
300-day displacements is reduced to 6.0% after the subtraction of the
individual initial displacement (blue lines in Fig. 6). This indicates that
the high scatter in the measured displacements of the sustained load
tests is attributed to the initial displacement, whereas the creep
behaviour over time is consistent between the sustained load tests.
Table 1 shows the regression constants and projected 50-year dis­
placements for the two different methods. For the regression a time step
ts4 of 5 days for the last measurement period and displacement data from
day 200 until day 300 (in total 21 points) is used.
Because a higher value of initial displacement from the Reference
Displacement Method is used as initial displacement for all tests, the
resulting extrapolated displacements are also conservatively higher due
to the influence on fitting parameters a and b. For a different data set,
however, it is possible that a lower mean value of δ0 from the Reference
Displacement Method could occur, which would lead to an uncon­
servative estimate of the long-term displacement. Similarly, it is also
conservative to not account for the small amounts of creep displace­
ments during loading, as keeping the creep contributions during loading
in the assumed initial displacement term will produce a slightly higher
long-term displacement.
While the Reference Displacement Method for the determination of
E. Stierschneider et al. Engineering Structures 241 (2021) 112448

Fig. 5. Determination of the initial displacement δ0 using the Reference Displacement Method.

Table 1
Comparison of the initial displacements and displacement extrapolations obtained from the different methods.
Test No. δ0 determined with the Individual Displacement Method δ0 determined with the Reference Displacement Method

δ0 [%] a [-] b [-] δ50y [%] δ0 [%] δ0 [%] a [-] b [-] δ50y [%]

1 33.1 3.128 0.284 158.9 58.4 56.2 0.018 0.763 425.0

2 41.8 3.001 0.298 186.0 57.4 0.441 0.467 247.2
1) 1) 1)
3 10.3 3.899 0.266 134.4 55.6
4 56.0 4.996 0.246 177.3 55.3 4.918 0.247 177.5
5 28.3 5.762 0.213 119.8 54.6 0.003 0.915 499.3
6 37.9 4.863 0.233 138.4 55.7 0.320 0.467 194.3
1)
For Test No. 3 the regression cannot be performed, since the creep displacement curve is negative until day 300, see Fig. 6

Fig. 6. Translated displacement curves after subtraction of the initial displacement δ0, defined using the Individual Displacement Method (blue lines) and Reference
Displacement Method (grey lines). (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

6
E. Stierschneider et al. Engineering Structures 241 (2021) 112448

δ0 is highly not recommended as the preferred method, it could be useful 2) Point in time when the extrapolation is conducted (Parameter 2).
for the purpose of comparison, if sustained load tests coming from 3) Size of the time window (range of measurement time) used for point
different testing laboratories should be compared, as the influence from selection (Parameter 3).
different load application mechanisms at the beginning can be partly 4) Number of points used for regression (Parameter 4). This is a result of
compensated [3]. the chosen time step ts4 (Parameter 1) and the size of the time win­
dow (Parameter 3).
4.4. Influence of sampling window and use of initial displacement in
extrapolation The definition of the different parameters 1–4 is graphically shown in
Fig. 7, exemplarily for Scenario 2. The purpose of investigating eight
According to [17], it is permissible to either use at least the last 20 scenarios is to check the sensitivity of the two cases (“translated” and
days (this indicates that ts4 is chosen with 1 day) or the last 20 mea­ “non-translated”) to different point selections and time windows, all of
surement points (the time window used for regression is therefore which are permissible according to [17].
dependent on the chosen time step ts4) for power-law regression, The investigated scenarios are all based on the horizontal translated
resulting in a wide range of possible sampling windows used for displacement curves (t = 0 corresponds to the end of initial displace­
regression. The sampling window is therefore defined as the specific ment, when loading is completed). In scenarios 1–4, data sampling and
time window from which the displacement points for the regression are extrapolation is conducted using the minimum permitted test duration
selected. This time window is defined by the last measured displacement of 90 days, thus neglecting any data that occurred after 90 days. In
point backwards against the measurement time. The size of this time scenarios 5–8, the extrapolation is conducted at the end of the mea­
window (sampling window) consequently depends on the chosen time surement time after 300 days.
step for the last measurement period. The influence of the selection of For Scenario 2, for example, ts4 is assumed with 5 days and the
displacement points used for regression and corresponding extrapola­ extrapolation is conducted after 90 days. The selection of the displace­
tion is investigated in this section. The number of total data points ment points used for the regression starts always from the end of the
generated based on the chosen time steps (ts1 to ts4) is shown in Table 2. displacement curves (for Scenario 2 from day 90 backwards). If 20
If ts4 is used with 1 day and the other time steps ts1, ts2 and ts3 are points are used at least for the regression for Scenario 2, 17 points are
adopted as defined in Section 2.1, 103 displacement measurements over defined by the interval ts4 = 5 days and the remaining 3 points are
an assumed minimum test duration of three months (2160 h) are taken. defined by the interval ts3 = 1 day as described in Section 2.1 and [17].
For a minimum time step ts4 of 10 days, in contrast, only 31 displace­ For this scenario, 91.9% of the measurement time is used to obtain these
ment measurements are generated. 20 points. All other scenarios are based on the same rationale, with just
The influence of ts4 on the excluded measurement time which is not different parameters chosen as shown in Table 3 (scenarios 1–4) and
used for the regression on the last 20 measurement points is also shown Table 4 (scenarios 5–8).
in Table 2. According to [3] and [30], the accuracy of the extrapolation For every scenario the regression for the determination of a and b and
can be improved, if the first 100 hours of measurement are not used for the extrapolation to the desired time horizon of 50 years using the
fitting the parameters a and b such that disproportionate weighting of Findley method is performed for both the “translated” and the “non-
the starting phase of the displacement curve is prevented. For a mea­ translated” case. The displacement prediction for the scenarios 1–4 are
surement time step ts4 of 1 day, nearly 80% of the measurement time is provided in Table 5 and for scenarios 5–8 in Table 6, separated for the
excluded from the regression (Table 2). On the other extreme, the use of six test specimens available. For comparison purposes, the initial
10 days for ts4 results in the exclusion of only 0.3% of the measurement displacement δ0 is also included in these tables.
time. A sampling rate longer than 6 days does not satisfy the recom­ The extrapolated displacements for the “non-translated” case are
mendation of [30] excluding the first 100 hours for the regression. smaller for all scenarios than the “translated” case for the same reasons
To investigate the influence of a non-translation (described in Sec­ described in Sections 4.2 and 4.3, as it is shown in Fig. 8 for the means of
tion 4.1) of the measured displacement curves for the regression on the the extrapolated 50-year displacements from Table 5 and Table 6 for the
extrapolated displacements for 50 years, eight different scenarios are eight investigated scenarios. The basic information is the same for the
analysed, which differ in terms of: individual tests with different absolute values. This leads to uncon­
servative results for the “non-translated” case, if the extrapolated dis­
1) Time step ts4 used for the selection of displacement points for the placements are compared with the displacement at loss of adhesion δu,
regression (Parameter 1), where ts1, ts2 and ts3 are again kept as adh during the assessment procedure. The dashed line in Fig. 8 indicates
defined in Section 2.1 and [17] respectively and ts4 is variable be­ the mean initial displacement δ0 of 34.6% obtained from the Individual
tween 1 and 10 days. Displacement Method (see Sections 4.2 and 4.3).
To compare the scenarios directly, only the “translated” case is
Table 2 considered. If the extrapolation is performed after 90 days (scenarios
Minimum number of displacement measurements and measurement time 1–4), scenario 3, which is permitted explicitly by [17], the lowest dis­
excluded from the regression based on the choice of ts4. placements are predicted, but only a small portion of the curve is
Time step Minimum number of displacement points Measurement captured. Scenarios 1, 2 and 4 show similar results in the range of 146 to
ts4 generated time excluded 154% for the mean in Fig. 8. For the scenarios 5–8, where the prediction
from the is conducted at the end of the measurements after 300 days, scenario 6
regression leads to the lowest extrapolated displacement. This leads to the
[days] [-] [hours] [%] conclusion that it is necessary to define a certain size of the time window
1 103 1711 79.2 as percentage of the measurement time to subject all products to the
2 63 1255 58.1 same standards. For scenario 7 with ts4 = 5 days and scenario 8 with ts4
3 50 823 38.1 = 1 day, the extrapolated displacements stay the same for the same size
4 43 343 15.9 of the time window used. This is an indication that for the considered
5 39 175 8.1
6 37 127 5.9
measurement curves, a higher measurement time step ts4 for the last
7 35 79 3.7 period does not influence the extrapolation and consequently that the
8 33 31 1.4 size to the time window used for the regression is appropriate.
9 32 7 0.3 Finally, the relatively long measurement time of 300 days enables
10 31 6 0.3
also a verification of the displacement prediction for the first four

7
E. Stierschneider et al. Engineering Structures 241 (2021) 112448

Fig. 7. Depiction of the different parameters used in the investigated scenarios on an arbitrary displacement curve, as illustrated for Scenario 2.

scenarios. Fig. 9 shows how well scenarios 1 through 4 predict the 300-
Table 3
day displacement of Test No. 1, where the dashed line marks the actual
Parameters of scenarios 1–4 with the extrapolation after 90 days.
measured displacement after 300 days (72.0%).
Scenario Time step ts4 Prediction Measurement No. of points While all extrapolated displacements to 300 days are very similar,
(Parameter 1) after time used (Parameter 4)
the displacement predictions for the “non-translated” cases are smaller
(Parameter 2) (Parameter 3)
than the measured value. The “translated” predictions, while also
1 10 days 90 days 99.7% 20 modestly below the measured displacement, are in closer agreement,
2 5 days 90 days 91.9% 20
3 1 day 90 days 21.0% 20
noting that Scenario 3 more significantly underestimates the 300-day
4 1 day 90 days 91.9% 84 measured displacement. Scenario 4, which represents the most
detailed use of the 90-day data, predicted a 300-day displacement equal
to 97.5% of the measured value. The lower predicted displacement by all
scenarios is an indication that the measured displacements have not
Table 4
Parameters of scenarios 5–8 with the extrapolation after 300 days. stabilized by day 90, illustrating the need for an appropriate verification
of the stabilization and conservatism of the power-law regression and
Scenario Time step ts4 Prediction Measurement No. of points
extrapolation methodology.
(Parameter 1) after time used (Parameter 4)
(Parameter 2) (Parameter 3)

5 10 days 300 days 63.3% 20

6 5 days 300 days 31.6% 20 4.5. Verification of stabilization and conservatism of methodology
7 5 days 300 days 91.6% 56
8 1 day 300 days 91.6% 276 The appropriateness of the power-law regression and extrapolation
methodology can be assessed by comparing the behaviour of the creep
displacement to power-law behaviour. While it is difficult to produce a
precise and generalizable mathematical definition that demonstrates
conservatism on creep data due to, e.g., natural scatter from

Table 5
Comparison of extrapolated displacements for 50 years for the “translated” and the “non-translated” case for scenarios 1–4.
Test No. δ0 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

[%] transl. non-transl. transl. non-transl. transl. non-transl. transl. non-transl.

1 33.1 146 88 136 99 113 97 140 102

2 41.8 155 98 147 109 126 108 152 112
3 10.3 134 84 125 97 104 92 130 101
4 56.0 193 114 191 129 149 126 197 133
5 28.3 144 85 136 97 109 94 140 100
6 37.9 151 92 140 102 112 98 144 105
mean 34.6 154 94 146 105 119 102 151 109

8
E. Stierschneider et al. Engineering Structures 241 (2021) 112448

Table 6
Comparison of extrapolated displacements for 50 years for the “translated” and the “non-translated” for scenarios 5–8.
Test No. δ0 Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Scenario 7 Scenario 8

[%] transl. non-transl. transl. non-transl. transl. non-transl. transl. non-transl.

1 33.1 177 139 158 133 158 124 159 124

2 41.8 218 162 182 151 187 141 187 141
3 10.3 181 155 131 121 161 135 161 135
4 56.0 233 175 172 152 220 161 220 161
5 28.3 160 130 117 107 152 120 152 120
6 37.9 180 141 134 120 164 127 164 127
Mean 34.6 191 150 149 131 174 134 174 135

Fig. 8. Comparison of the mean 50-year displacement extrapolations for the investigated scenarios for the “translated” and the “non-translated” case.

Fig. 9. Comparison of the predicted displacements after 300 days for Test No. 1 for scenarios 1 to 4.

temperature fluctuations within the permitted temperature range and in Section 2.2) and an inelastic creep component, δcreep, defined by the
the precision of the displacement instrumentation, a graphical approach term a∙tb as shown in Eqs. (3) and (4). By taking the natural logarithm of
in logarithmic space can be used to demonstrate displacement stabili­ δcreep, Eq. (5) is produced, indicating that the creep portion of the power-
zation, an approach first reported in [3] and expanded upon in this law expression represents a straight line in log–log space with an
section. intercept of ln(a) and a slope of b.
As discussed elsewhere in this paper, to predict the creep behaviour
δmeas = δ0 + δcreep (3)
of chemical anchors, a regression procedure is performed on the
measured displacement under sustained load, δmeas, which is assumed to
δcreep = a⋅tb = δmeas − δ0 (4)
be composed of an elastic initial displacement component, δ0, (defined

9
E. Stierschneider et al. Engineering Structures 241 (2021) 112448

( ) ( ) sufficient displacement measurement frequency during loading. Use

ln δcreep = ln a⋅tb = ln(a) + b⋅ln(t) (5)
of the curvature for this purpose should only be employed if no in­
formation is available about the time to completion of loading.
Therefore, if 1) a power-law regression is used on measured data, 2) the
3) While it is not preferable, δ0 may be estimated from reference tests,
regression curve (after re-adding δ0) yields a higher displacement than
where the initial displacement δ0 is taken as the mean displacement
the measured displacement at the end of sustained load period, and 3)
in reference tests at a load level equal to Nsust. However, when this
the δcreep portion of that data demonstrates linear or concave-down
methodology is employed, specimen-specific information is lost and
behaviour in log–log space, it can be inferred that the regression equa­
the resulting estimate could be conservative or unconservative. This
tion from the power-law regression is conservative compared to
method should only be used in the absence of displacement infor­
measured data. These three conditions may also be used as a strict
mation during the ramp-up phase of sustained load testing.
definition of “stabilization” in the creep curve for the purposes of anchor
4) To properly apply a power-law extrapolation of creep displacement
assessment [3].
curves, δ0 must be subtracted from the displacement curve used for
The data presented in this paper is used below to illustrate the con­
regression and extrapolation and the time when δ0 is reached should
cepts of this section. In Fig. 10 (a), the natural logarithm of the indi­
be shifted to t = 0. After regression of the creep-only (or “translated”)
vidual creep-only displacements (δcreep) are plotted against the natural
portion of the curve, δ0 must then be re-added to the resulting
logarithm of time, then the last 150 days of the curve are shown in
extrapolation. If δ0 is included in the creep regression (the “non-
Fig. 10 (b) along with a straight line as reference for visually assessing
translated” case), unrealistically low displacement extrapolations
curvature. For the data presented, Fig. 10 (b) clearly indicates that all
will be produced, which is unconservative.
specimens and the mean curve demonstrate concave-down behaviour.
5) It is recommended to define a certain size of the time window as a
In Fig. 11, the initial displacement is re-added to the creep curve for
percentage of the total measurement time. According to [3] and
the purposes of comparing the regression equation to the measured data,
[30], the first 100 hours should be omitted for the regression, but it is
with Fig. 11 (a) plotted in log–log space and Fig. 11 (b) in linear space.
also potentially unconservative to use too little time due to precision
At approximately 275 days, the regression curve surpasses the measured
of measurement devices and the possibility of influence from
displacement. Coupled with the satisfactory concave-down behaviour in
permitted temperature changes over a short time. To capture the
log-log space, this indicates that the regression equation is conservative
specimen-specific behaviour of the displacement curve, employment
compared to the measured data for the 150-day window selected.
of time window between the last 70% and 95% of the data is rec­
To capture the trends in the data appropriately while accounting for
ommended. For a minimum test duration of 90 days, ts4 should not
temperature- and precision-related spikes and plateaus in displacement,
be longer than 6 days in order to fulfil the 100-hour
it is recommended that at least 50% of displacement measurement be
recommendation.
used to determine the overall behaviour of the displacement curve.
6) To verify the appropriateness of the use of a power-law regression on
Beyond 180 days of measurement, 90 days of measurement is
creep displacement data, two criteria should be fulfilled: 1) The final
recommended.
portion of creep data should exhibit linear or concave-down behav­
iour in a logarithmic time (x axis) and logarithmic displacement (y
5. Conclusions and recommendations
axis); and 2) The predictive equation based on the regression and
initial displacement should demonstrate an equal or higher
From this investigation, the following recommendations and con­
displacement than the last recorded value. It is recommended that
clusions can be drawn with respect to the application of the Findley
these criteria replace existing language on “stabilization” in assess­
power-law methodology to extrapolation of sustained load displace­
ment documents.
ments for bonded fasteners:

1) Where possible, individual sustained load tests should be used for the
determination of δ0, as this measures the specimen-specific initial
response during loading and leads to more accurate and consistent
extrapolations of the creep behaviour of the specimen. Furthermore,
while small amounts of creep will occur during the loading phase, it
is conservative to assume that this creep is part of δ0 without further
analysis.
2) For the verification of the definition of the initial displacement δ0,
the curvature of the displacement time-history can be used with
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Elisabeth Stierschneider: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal
analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Resources,
Software, Validation, Visualization, Writing - original draft, Writing -
review & editing. Alexios E. Tamparopoulos: Conceptualization, Data
curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Vali­
dation, Visualization, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & edit­
ing. Kenton E. McBride: Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation,
Methodology, Visualization, Writing - original draft, Writing - review &

Fig. 10. (a) Creep displacements δcreep of tested specimens against time in log–log space; (b) Creep displacements of tested specimens from day 150 to day 300
against time.

10
E. Stierschneider et al.
Fig. 11. (a) Measured displacements δmeas of tested specimens against time in log–log space from day 150 to day 300; (b) Measured displacements δmeas in linear time.
editing. Konrad Bergmeister: Funding acquisition, Supervision,
Writing - review & editing.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgements
The research presented in this paper was conducted at IKI in Vienna.
The authors wish to acknowledge the staff of the testing laboratory at
IKI, namely Dr. Oliver Zeman, Dipl.-Ing. Michael Schwenn, Ing. Duro
Petricevic and Ing. Jürgen Schobert.
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